Nine Newspapers reports the monthly federal poll from Resolve Strategic gives the Coalition its best result for the term, with its primary vote up two points to 38% while the Labor remains stuck at 28%, the Greens are down one to 13% and One Nation is steady at 6%. A two-party preferred calculation based on preference flows from 2022 produces something close to a dead heat. The poll also records Peter Dutton retaining the one-point lead on preferred prime minister that he attained for the first time in last month’s poll, now at 35-34 from 36-35 last time. Albanese’s combined very good and good performance rating tumbles five points to 32% with very poor and poor up three to 54%, while Dutton is respectively down three to 39% and steady on 40%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1603.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has a better result for Labor than last time, putting them ahead 50.5-49.5 on two-party preferred (UPDATE: I have this the wrong way round – it’s the Coalition leading 50.5-49.5)) compared with a 51.5-48.5 Coalition lead last time. This is based on respondent-allocated preferences, the pollster’s calculation based on preference flows at the 2022 election putting Labor ahead 51.5-48.5. The primary votes have the Coalition down two points to 37.5%, Labor up two-and-a-half to 31%, the Greens down one to 12.5% and One Nation steady at 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1758.
The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll focuses on attitudes towards Australian democracy, with 37% reporting satisfaction, up five from March, 30% dissatisfaction, down one, and 33% neither, up one. Voting intention results from the poll will be along later today.
UPDATE: Voting intention from the Essential Research poll has Labor at 29% (down one), the Coalition at 33% (steady), the Greens at 13% (up one), One Nation at 8% (steady), the United Australia Party at 3% (up two) and others at 14% (down two), with the balance undecided. On the 2PP+ measure, the Coalition’s lead is out from 47-46 to 48-46.
The three-eyed fish have gone the way of the LNP’s nuclear policy: extinct.
You guys should love Vance – he is against the Gulf Wars.
The political evidence in by-elections have contradicted opinion polling
There has been swings against the federal Lib/nats , there has been no swing against Labor
The Thug and the Bandicoot:
Previously blocked altogether or delayed significantly: five significant pieces of climate action to get to 43/30, the Voice, the NACC, AAT reform, housing supply for victims of DV, housing supply for Indigenous people, housing supply for homeless people and IR reform.
Make no mistake. Neither demonstrate giving a fuck about Australia. They are intent on assuaging their power lust.
The Bandicoot is delivering government to the Thug and the Thug is laughing his arse off.
Enjoy!
The Thug and the Albo:
Previously worked, blocked altogether or delayed significantly: the removal of the carbon tax, making NACC a paper tiger, housing reforms, housing supply for victims of DV, housing supply for Indigenous people, housing supply for homeless people, donation reform and IR reform.
Make no mistake. Neither demonstrate giving a fuck about Australia. They are intent on assuaging their power lust.
The Albo is delivering government to the Thug and the Thug is laughing his arse off.
Enjoy!
You guys would love Vance. He is a lamprey.
Which king of England died “from a surfeit of lampreys”?
If the US in particular and the Europeans, and NATO Members in particular, wants Ukraine to win, they wouldn’t have ham strung them with inadequate and slow weapons supplies and limits on where they can be used. They would have enforced a no- fly zone over Ukraine 48 hours after the invasion and then a No Armour zone another 48 hours after that. All they have done to date is subject Ukraine to a death by a thousand cuts.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. A lot of political chaos here and in US
Looking at the US polls posted by Confessions Trump will be POTUS. Lets not kid ourselves. Labor should prepare for this. (So must Ukraine!)
We really should be dumping AUKUS now, but I think Labor is too afraid to jump ship/sub.
TGA/ Essential, I note the national mood page shows about 30% saying Australia is heading in the right direction.
Only 37% of people are satisfied with the way democracy is working in Australia.
75% think most politicians enter into politics to serve their own interests.
Just 7% say they actively participate in politics.
I think the Greens standing on an a social democratic platform at the next election is likely going to appeal to more voters given the current economic conditions and perception of the major parties. I guess we’ll find out when we’re actually in an election campaign. Labor made a mistake by going to the last election with too much of a small target strategy which gave them no mandate to do anything other than more or less keeping things the same – it just feels like it’s going on a road to nowhere and will bleed votes to the left and right as a consequence.
mj I agree; Labor won because the Libs lost, and a small target, neoliberal platform in todays world is just the way to bleed votes in every direction…
BW’s rants make sense now. He must also think the Greens are going to be a government.
In the meantime in a hung parliament what well get the policy guernsey?
Dental and/or glasses in Medicare
Establishing a public developer for housing at the federal level
Adapting the LNP nationalis the power grid for renewable and related of course no new coal and gas projects. Thus setting a deadline for when fossil fuel resources are running out so planning can occur.
Stinker: “Vance is, like Trump, less concerned about those matters than the culture wars. In a word, he’s a nativist.”
White middle America is more concerned about the culture wars than are the Dem leadership and the liberal media. A few years back, some leading Dems and the liberal media were all in with defund the police and anti-colonialism and reparations for slavery and “transwomen are real women” and all that stuff. But now they are trying to pretend that it never really happened, or never really mattered all that much.
But, unfortunately, it seems as if white middle America does remember. And, not incorrectly, it interprets a lot of that stuff as an attack directed towards white middle America.
JD Vance is ideally placed to capitalise on this. His job is to go hard against wokeness in all its forms, and to characterise the Dem complaint that Trump is “anti-democratic” as being really about the fact that Trump wants to tear down woke institutions and genuinely do something about the border and the (largely non-existent) “crime wave of the inner cities” (which is a nice way of describing crime by African-Americans).
I suspect that Vance is going to prove to be quite an asset. He’ll be able to sell a version of the Trump message with far less distracting crazy stuff at the margins. The Republicans would do well to use the shooting as an excuse for limiting Trump’s public exposure over the next few weeks/months, and let Vance do the hard yars.
If all of this isn’t going to be bad enough for the Dems, it now seems that Biden is going to go really hard with using the assassination attempt as a pretext for staying on as the President and the candidate. But look at the latest polls. The way things are going, the next A-G won’t have any trouble appointing Special Counsels to charge Biden, his family, and anyone else Trump feels like putting in prison. They can just rush an enabling bill through both houses where they will have healthy majorities.
It’s all totally yuk.
Henry I died of a surfeit of Lampreys but the Duke of Clarence’s death was much more unpleasant- he drowned in a barrel of malmsey wine.
I’d happily vote for that list scott1.
He marketing opportunities for Cochlear are profound.
https://about.bnef.com/new-energy-outlook/#exec-summary
I am not sure how much poetic license was used in “Hillbilly Elegy” but Vance has certainly got the log cabin story under control and a subsequent life story (marines, scholarship to Yale etc) that balances Trump and hits the target of middle America (with the possible exception that his wife is a woman of colour).
Looking at the Bandt manifesto. I would be very happy to see more social democratic principles and policy. Sadly, Bandt is a social democrat in name only. Where are the democratic aspects? In the manifesto Bandt refers to primary votes as form of legitimacy. As we have bandied about on Pollbludger, we do not have a FPTP electoral system. Bandt should know as The Greens and Independents also benefit from the preferential electoral system that we have in Australia.
Second, we have “Mr Bandt also took aim at the nation’s “two-party system”, arguing the rise of minority governments would better serve Australian democracy by allowing third parties such as the Greens greater influence over legislated policy outcomes.” That needs a little more explanation how minority parties having greater influence would better serve democracy.
Social – yes. I agree with some of the policies. Democratic – No.
LVT: “Which king of England died “from a surfeit of lampreys”?”
I can’t be bothered looking it up, but it was one of the early Henrys, wasn’t it: I or II.
I’m not crazy about the taste of eels, so a “surfeit” of them wouldn’t be very much for me.
The other British royal death that always intrigued me was that of George, the Duke of Clarence – brother of Edward IV and Richard III – who was said to have been drowned in a barrel of Malmsey wine.
It’s the details that make these things so piquant: not just wine, but “Malmsey wine”, not just eels but “lampreys”, not to mention the use of the word “surfeit.”
OC: snap!
From last week:
JD Vance is a rightwing troll disguised as a populist. He could be our next vice-president
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/09/jd-vance-is-a-rightwing-troll-disguised-as-a-populist-he-could-be-our-next-vice-president
I feel meher that word surfeit is due a comeback.
‘VTC Et3e says:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 8:40 am
TGA/ Essential, I note the national mood page shows about 30% saying Australia is heading in the right direction.
Only 37% of people are satisfied with the way democracy is working in Australia.
75% think most politicians enter into politics to serve their own interests.
Just 7% say they actively participate in politic’
———————–
No one could possibly be satisfied with a democracy that routinely delivers delays of six months or more in a three year term thanks to the work of the Thug and the Bandicoot.
Lordbain: “mj I agree; Labor won because the Libs lost, and a small target, neoliberal platform in todays world is just the way to bleed votes in every direction…”
——————————————————————————-
Did you ever hear of something called the 2019 Australian Federal Election?
There is a huge prospect that the governance paralysis increases with a right BOP dominated Senate after the next election
FUBARsays:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 8:40 am
You made a fool of yourself yesterday commenting about things way beyond your clearance level and seem intent on repeating your “I want to be significant” rant so common an indication of your cadet under officer classification.
”
FUBARsays:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 8:40 am
If the US in particular and the Europeans, and NATO Members in particular, wants Ukraine to win, they wouldn’t have ham strung them with inadequate and slow weapons supplies and limits on where they can be used. They would have enforced a no- fly zone over Ukraine 48 hours after the invasion and then a No Armour zone another 48 hours after that. All they have done to date is subject Ukraine to a death by a thousand cuts.
”
I can’t believe I am in agreement with FUBAR.
Not only what FUBAR said, NATO military forces should have joined Ukranians in the front line.
Do you think Putin would be foolish enough to use Atom bomb in that scenario?
Yes, I agree NATO would have lost soldiers in the process. But it is better than “death by a thousand cuts” as FUBAR put it.
Every military initiative by Biden was/is a failure
1. Afghan troop withdrawal was a disaster. It reminded people of Vietnam war troop withdrawal(Biden approval rating fell by about 10%(from about 52% to 42%) at that time and never recovered.
2. Stalemate in Ukraine war and total destruction of Ukraine with their strategy. I know it is Putin’s war and he should not have started in first place. But Putin is narcissistic sociopath and evil personified.
3. Houthis NATO war strategy did not stop Houthis attack on Mercantile ships.
4. Gaza war, where over 40000 innocent are killed(as per reports) on Biden watch.
And now Trump could become President.
lampreys are not eels
Indeed MB, but I would note that the demographics in 2019 werent the same in 2022, nor will they be in 2025
Part 2:
Moving away from Bandt’s manifesto, there is the very functioning of The Greens Party itself. The internal lack of transparency for policy and governance works against the claim of representing the principles of social democracy. Best start at home.
FUBAR is trolling and he knows it.
A NATO no fly zone over Ukraine would have involved a general war between NATO, including the US, and Russia.
The NYT bio of JD Vance is easy to read and to the point.
Not a bad pick if you’re looking to have a noddy yes man (who probably still hates you), plus hand the torch to in 4 years (or support keeping hold of the torch). I dont see him as a radical, but he certainly embodies that frontierism attitude of white America that can have some nasty sharp edges.
https://archive.md/Jw0YQ
Since Federation, politics in this country has revolved around keeping the Australian Labor Party out of office. The Greens are doing their bit.
Griff, a minority government is an outcome of democratic elections I’m not sure how it could be argued as anything other than democratic.
The corporate donations accepted by parties and revolving door between politicians and corporations is a fairly blatant form of corruption and an actual threat to democracy.
Lars Von Trier:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 8:39 am
A more interesting question is who has the best claim as the first king of England. Check out most regnal tables and they start with
William 1, but his claim is weak.
BSA, no1 does a better job of keeping Labor out of government then Labor
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 9:01 am
I disagree. Russia doesn’t want a war with NATO.
What the US and the Europeans are doing now for Ukraine hasn’t worked.
The reason why I think a hung parliament won’t be the win for the LNP that the strategists think it is.
A Labor minority government is going to look very stable as we watch the chaos internationally.
Of course it still could be a majority Labor government for the same reason.
(I am assuming the voters will be as intelligent as the last election)
Mavis there may have been a few Saxon kings who could claim to be kings of England before William.
LOL. Some extraordinary logical consequences being ignored here.
Biden should have sent the US military into Ukraine, invaded Yemen to suppress the Houthis, invaded Lebanon to suppress Heshbollah, invaded Israel to suppress Israel, invaded Iran to suppress Iran, and landed US troops in Gaza to suppress Hamas. Biden should not have left Afghanistan until the Afghan Army, a 20 year failure by all comers including Trump, Howard, Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison, could hold things together for long enough for Biden to leave Afghanistan in good order.
The Gaza statistics, as reported, make no real statistical sense. They are politically massaged by all comers. It is in the interests of Hamas, international aid organizations and the Australian Greens to maximize the civilian death statistics. It is in the interests of Israel to minimize them. They are what they are: war statistics.
As such they are, like everything else in this horrible mass tragedy, subject to the genocidal visions of all the participating groups.
Hamas fighter numbers were guessed to be somewhere in the order of 10,000 pre October 7. Hamas civilian members were guessed to be somewhere in the order of 30,000 pre-October 7. Hamas had an interest in massaging those numbes. So did Israel.
In practice anyone can pick up an AK-47, point it out of a hospital window, and become a Hamas fighter. My understanding is that Hamas is actively recruiting and has done so since October 7.
Civilian casualties are reported by Hamas-controlled sources to be 40,000. Making the large assumption that 40,000 is in the ballpark, How many of those 40,000 ‘civilians’ were Hamas? We would not have clue because it is not in the interest of Hamas to let us know. How many of Israel’s Hamas victims were civilians? We would not have a clue because it is not in the interest of Israel to let us know.
davidwh:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 9:20 am
True, but which one?
Mavis @ #87 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 9:11 am
Was Edward the Confessor really celibate or was he just gay?
In any case the Saxon and Norman lines recombined when Matilda of Scotland married Henry 1.
Personally I am in favour of a Stuart restoration. The current claimant is Franz of Bavaria, who for much of his life claimed to be celibate but is in fact gay – having outed himself and long term partner a few years ago.
In the course of time the Stuart claim will go to the House of Liechtenstein and a personal union between the UK and Liechtenstein would be a significant player in geo-politics.
Lord
Who’s number 1? The Greens are angling for it. Will they get there? It won’t be for the lack of trying.
‘FUBAR says:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 9:13 am
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 9:01 am
I disagree. Russia doesn’t want a war with NATO.’
——————————-
As I argued repeatedly BEFORE Putin invaded Ukraine, those arguing that Xi and Putin are not imperial threats have a duty to explicate the basis for their views. In particular they have a duty in logic to indicate where their imperial expansions will be halted. The Philippines Government would also like to know this right now.
They were wrong about Putin not invading Ukraine.
Your problem, IMO, is that your views lack sophistication.
Russia is already murdering individuals in NATO countries and involved in sabotage of NATO countries. It is has repeatedly demonstrated the willingness and ability to support minority groups to engage in civil war. The baltic countries with their large and somewhat oppressed Russian minorities are hugely vulnerable to this approach.
FWIW, Finland and Sweden are hedging their bets based on your best guess. They have joined NATO.
mj says:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 9:06 am
Griff, a minority government is an outcome of democratic elections I’m not sure how it could be argued as anything other than democratic.
The corporate donations accepted by parties and revolving door between politicians and corporations is a fairly blatant form of corruption and an actual threat to democracy.
__________
The question is why does “allowing third parties such as the Greens greater influence over legislated policy outcomes.” serve democracy better?
Thanks Boer War, Gallipoli, Singapore, Suez, Brexit …, in an age of special forces, space, platforms, missiles, drones, AI, I guess them AUKUS $$Ns will just be platforms.
Should buy some optical, housing, dental, CES, presumably will be left alone till after the 2025 Federal Election, presumably some Auditor General report or Four Corners will trigger a review. Probably be a lot cheaper to put some pods on a Globemaster, Poseidon, even them MRTT, 737 Max BBJ.
Hmmm, my take is different than yours. I reckon centrist, Libs lite, shit lite’s PV is about a third.
Given some of the commentary on PB, must be the rusted-ons that think country is heading in the right direction with ‘from the Med Sea to the Euphrates … Albo’. Bliarite Labor.
I suppose using a small target strategy to get into office
is one thing, ditching values, principles, if perhaps not promises, ah well …
I for one, prefer the major party executive in minority fed gov having to negotiate to get the numbers, and the senate balanced the other way. (And that will leak.)
Same for federal/ territory or state/ local!
meher baba @ #71 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 8:55 am
Malmsey wine is a form of madeira, which makes one wonder if the Duke of Clarence’s murderers asked him to “have some madeira, m’dear, you have nothing to fear”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OW_zi8n4HDQ