French parliamentary election runoffs live

The far-right National Rally is unlikely to win a majority. The UK election was the most disproportionate in modern history.

Live Commentary

10:37am Tuesday The composition of the 182 NFP members are 74 from the far-left LFI, 59 from the centre-left Socialists, 28 Greens, nine Communists and 12 others. Adding Ensemble’s 168 to NFP, but subtracting LFI and the Communists gives 267 seats, still 22 short of a majority.

12pm It’s been a long stretch of following international elections for me, including the UK, French, Indian and European parliament elections. Unless Joe Biden withdraws from the US presidential contest, I will next post in early August.

10:57am Wikipedia’s figures are 180 of 577 seats for the NFP (up 49 since 2022), 159 Ensemble (down 86), 142 RN and allies (up 53), 39 Republicans (down 25), 27 other righties (up 17), 12 other lefties (down nine), six other centrists (up two) and nine regionalists (down one). Adding others, 192 NFP (up 40), 165 Ensemble (down 84), 142 RN (up 53) and 66 Republicans (down eight). A majority requires 289 seats, so parliament is well hung.

9:55am Official runoff round results have been released. Le Monde has the NFP on 182 of the 577 seats, Ensemble 168, RN 143, the Republicans 45, other righties 15, other lefties 13, other centrists six and regionalists four. Adding the others would give the NFP 195 seats, Ensemble 174, RN 143 and the Republicans 60. To pass legislation, Macron’s Ensemble will need either the NFP or RN to also be in favour. In the previous parliament, he had an option of cooperating with the Republicans.

8:42am With six seats left, 179 NFP, 165 Ensemble, 143 RN and 45 Republicans.

8:17am With 16 seats left, 177 NFP, 160 Ensemble, 141 RN and 45 Republicans.

7:48am As expected, the NFP and Ensemble are surging as the final seats are finalised. With 28 seats left, it’s 174 NFP, 153 Ensemble, 140 RN and 45 Republicans.

7:40am Large first round leads for RN candidates are being overturned in the runoffs. In Sarthe’s fourth, the NFP defeated the RN by 50.2-49.8. First round results were 39.3% RN, 25.94% NFP and 25.88% Ensemble. The Ensemble candidate withdrew.

7:28am With 42 seats left, the NFP has 165 seats, Ensemble 149, RN 140 and the Republicans 44.

7:09am With 78 seats remaining, Ensemble takes second spot from RN. Current totals are 146 NFP, 140 Ensemble, 137 RN and 40 Republicans.

7:05am Le Monde has maps of the results so far. With 95 seats still to be finalised, the NFP has won 140 seats, the RN 135, Ensemble 133, the conservative Republicans 38, other righties 15, other lefties ten, other centrists six and regionalists four. The remaining seats, mostly from cities, should heavily favour the NFP and Ensemble.

6:57am The Ifop projection of components of the NFP alliance has the far-left LFI with 82-86 seats, the Communists at 9-10, the centre-left Socialists at 62-67 and the Greens at 34-35. There are also 8=10 other lefties.

6:28am Monday A big shock, with current projections, which are partly based on votes counted so far, putting the left-wing NFP in first place, followed by Macron’s Ensemble, and the far-right RN in third. An Ipsos projection has the NFP at 171-187 seats, Ensemble at 152-163 and RN at 134-152. Ifop has NFP at 188-199, Ensemble 164-169 and RN 135-139.

6:30pm Wikipedia has the results of 14 seat runoffs, presumably from French territories outside France that voted Saturday. Regionalists won five of these seats, the NFP three, other lefties three, other righties two and other centrists one. Adding the 76 seats decided in the first round with vote majorities, the total out of 90 seats decided is 38 RN and allies, 35 NFP, five Republicans and other righties, five regionalists, three other lefties and three Ensemble and other centrists. So 487 seats remain to be decided.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The 577 French lower house seats are elected by a two-round single-member system. The runoffs are today, with polls outside the cities closing at 3am AEST Monday. All polls are closed by 4am AEST.

In final results of last Sunday’s first round, the far-right National Rally (RN) and allies won 33.2%, the left-wing alliance of four parties (NFP) 28.1%, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble 21.3% and the conservative Republicans and other right-wing candidates 10.2%.

Turnout was high at 66.7% of registered voters. This meant 76 seats were filled, where the winner had at least 50% of valid votes and at least 25% of registered votes. It also meant that many third candidates cleared the 12.5% of registered voters required to advance. On these results, 306 seats would go to three-way runoffs and five to four-way runoffs.

In today’s runoffs, first past the post will be used. To avoid splitting the anti-RN vote, there have been a large number of candidate withdrawals. Now there are only 89 three-way runoffs and two four-way runoffs remaining after the candidate registration deadline on Tuesday. Europe Elects said there are 154 NFP vs RN contests, 135 Ensemble vs RN, 50 Republicans vs RN, 83 are three or four-way runoffs involving NFP, RN and either Ensemble or the Republicans, and 37 seats don’t have RN candidates.

Polls released since Tuesday’s registration deadline give RN and allies 170-240 seats, the NFP 165-203 seats, Ensemble 95-160 and the Republicans 25-63. If today’s results reflect the polls, RN and allies will be far short of the 289 seats needed for a majority, and there’s some chance that the NFP wins more seats than RN. Polls conducted before the first round had RN much closer to a majority.

In an Ifop poll, centre-left and Ensemble candidates led RN by 53-47, while the far-left tied at 50-50 with RN and the Republicans led RN by 56-44. An OpinionWay poll had RN beating NFP by 53-47 but losing to Ensemble 52-48. In a three-way race, NFP had 36%, Ensemble 34% and RN 30%.

UK election most disproportionate in modern history

In Thursday’s UK election, Labour won 411 of the 650 seats, the Conservatives 121, the Liberal Democrats 72, the Scottish National Party nine, independents six, Reform five and the Greens four. Labour won 63.2% of seats on 33.7% of votes, the Conservatives 18.6% on 23.7%, the Lib Dems 11.1% on 12.2%, Reform 0.8% on 14.3% and the Greens 0.6% on 6.7%. Europe Elects said it was the most disproportional UK election in modern history. Large swings against Labour in their safe seats helped their vote efficiency, even though they lost a few seats to pro-Gaza independents.

In Scotland Labour won 37 of the 57 seats, to just nine for the SNP, on vote shares of 35.3% Labour and 30.0% SNP. In 2019, the SNP had won 48 of the 59 Scottish seats, to just one for Labour, on shares of 45.0% SNP and 18,6% Labour.

Other international electoral developments

More than seven months after the November 22 election, a new Dutch government was sworn in last Tuesday. The new government includes the far-right PVV (37 of the 150 seats), the conservative VVD (24 seats), the Christian democratic NSC (20 seats) and the agrarian right-wing BBB (seven seats). These four parties combined have 88 seats, well above the 76 needed for a majority. This is the first Dutch government to include the PVV and has been described as the most right-wing in recent history.

The Iranian presidential election was held in two rounds, on June 28 and Friday, to replace former right-wing president Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash. The reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian defeated the right-wing Saeed Jalili in the runoff by a 54.8-45.2 margin. In Iran, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds the most power, and presidential candidates need to be vetted by the religious Guardian Council.

In early May the Solomon Islands parliament elected the China-friendly foreign minister, Jeremiah Manele, of the previous pro-China PM, Manasseh Sogavare, as the new PM. Sogavare had withdrawn from the contest to be PM and backed Manele, after he failed to win a majority in an April election.

82 comments on “French parliamentary election runoffs live”

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  1. Ven

    If Left is invited by Macron to provide PM, will it be Melechon or Hollande?

    Neither, going by the cartoons I have seen in the last few weeks!

    I might have a go at getting a collection together a bit later. The colloquial French and puns are beyond my quick translation abilities.

  3. BTSayssays:
    Monday, July 8, 2024 at 4:18 am
    Jean-Luc Melenchon (hard-left leader in France)

    Regardless of what he’s said “in 2024”, I’m afraid it is true that he is sympathetic to Russia. Furthermore, he has been consistently anti-Nato.
    ===========================================================

    Like many you confuse support for BRICS with support for Putin. It is the right wing nationalist parties that truly support Putin. The left wing generally has some sympathy for BRICS countries and as such tolerate Putin’s role in that block of countries.

    Also while Hugo Chavez had many faults he was less corrupt than Carlos Pérez whom he replaced. It was Perez who was responsible for Venezuelan decline more so than Charez. Though lots of the problems, like in most Latin American countries, can be traced back to Kissinger.

  4. UK election – I have done a little calculation of what each parties “Short money” will be. Short Money is the funds allocated to non-government parties on the basis of MPs and votes received. In order to get Short money a party needs either 2 MPs or 1 MP and 150k votes. However, if the party has less than 5 MPs there is a cap (£354,255 in 2023) and a floor (£118,085 in 2023).
    As a result, the SDLP has 2 MPs but not many votes, they would qualify for the floor and Reform and the Greens have lots of votes but run into the cap.
    Using the 2023 funding figures, without the cap or floor each of the parties would get:
    Conservatives £4,055,741
    Lib Dem £2,296,978
    SNP £348,082
    Reform £988,684 (but will be capped at £354,255 )
    Green £480,083 (but will be capped at £354,255 )
    PC £127,460
    DUP £144,017
    SF £195,201 (but don’t get it as they are not sworn in)
    SDLP £61,461 (but will get the floor of £118,085)

    Expect Reform to cry a lot about £600k plus shortfall because of the cap.
    Also I am not sure what happens if someone was to defected to them.

  10. B. S. Fairmansays:
    Monday, July 8, 2024 at 11:49 am
    UK election – I have done a little calculation of what each parties “Short money” will be. Short Money is the funds allocated to non-government parties on the basis of MPs and votes received. In order to get Short money a party needs either 2 MPs or 1 MP and 150k votes. However, if the party has less than 5 MPs there is a cap (£354,255 in 2023) and a floor (£118,085 in 2023).

    Expect Reform to cry a lot about £600k plus shortfall because of the cap.
    Also I am not sure what happens if someone was to defected to them.
    =========================================================

    While like you i don’t exactly know what happens due to a defection. I strongly suspect that funding is based on whose party you ran with at the election. So a defection to take a party with 5 candidates to 6 or vica versa i suspect doesn’t change that calculation of funding to be paid out based on election result. Otherwise, throughout the term, these calculations would need to be redone for every defection or by election change. Which would be a fairly complex system to have in place for funding.

    Though having 6 members to be a recognised party. I assume is separate from the vote related funding. This i assume comes with more funding for MP staff etc. So i would assume this can be triggered by a party of 5 collecting another member by a defection or an independent joining them.

  11. VOTE SHARES FRANCE 2ND ROUND (CHANGES VS. 1ST ROUND)

    RN/UXD 37.06% (+3.85%)
    NFP 25.81% (-2.20%)
    ENS 24.53% (+3.25%)

    NFP and ENS figures are suppressed due to pulling out so many candidates where the other was stronger.

    This makes the ENS figures quite an extraordinary advance on the 1st round that being the case, showing Macron’s tactics belatedly achieving some kind of result – not that he’ll be getting any kind of plaudits for the fragmentation France has woken up to, I don’t think.

    Somewhat lost in the prevailing narrative, but worth noting that even with the very high turnout RN got an increase of 3.85% in the vote, but lost due to the tactics deployed collectively to stop them winning seats. But they will take courage that their disappointing seat gain number wasn’t due to some belated fall in their support.

  12. Actually in the 2nd round of voting alone, Ensemble won the most seats – 157.

    NFP only pulls ahead when you add their 37 from the 1st round. They won 148 in the 2nd round and the RN coalition 104.

    So in context a very successful night for Macron / Ensemble, surely surpassing all expectations.

  13. BTSayssays:
    Monday, July 8, 2024 at 3:42 pm
    VOTE SHARES FRANCE 2ND ROUND (CHANGES VS. 1ST ROUND)

    RN/UXD 37.06% (+3.85%)
    NFP 25.81% (-2.20%)
    ENS 24.53% (+3.25%)

    NFP and ENS figures are suppressed due to pulling out so many candidates where the other was stronger.

    This makes the ENS figures quite an extraordinary advance on the 1st round that being the case, showing Macron’s tactics belatedly achieving some kind of result – not that he’ll be getting any kind of plaudits for the fragmentation France has woken up to, I don’t think.
    =====================================================

    Seems to be lots of jubilation on the streets of Paris. Centrists and the left are celebrating together. Only the right wing appears depressed. Seems France will be getting a Government that will be strongly anti-fascist. Which is what the majority has asked for. They have also asked for a Government that will work together to stop the rise of fascism too.

    Ensemble did a hugely better in the second round when it had done a deal with NFP. Suggesting the majority would like the centrists and the left to work together. Suggesting Ensemble needs to keep working with the left and not the right to remain popular. Hopefully Macron learns from this and works to bring in more left leaning policies in future.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0j8zxfh

  14. BSF
    Many thanks on short money.
    2 thoughts: 1. from your link yesterday. Sinn Féin won’t get short money, which is for parliamentary duties, but will get the same amount, with 7 seats not subject to the roof, of “representative” money which is for representative duties. This has been controversial and the Unionist parties have tried to reverse it several times.

    2. As Entropy has asked; if TUV does take the Reform whip (I think we would say caucus together) do the combined 6 seats result in a river of gold given Reforms large vote count?

    Edit: just read your comments re defections but TUV stating their intention to take the whip is a different situation.

  15. I am not sure. I am not even sure from the documents I can find if when a seat is gained by a party if that affects the amount given. From best, I can seem to find, it seems it is off the General election performance only.

    I did find find out that Short Money is named after Edward Short who was the minister in charge of introducing it in the 1970s. There is a similar scheme for the House of Lords called Cranborne Money.

  16. BSF

    The documents I found re Short Funding talk about votes received/MPs elected ‘at the election’

    The TUV guy was elected, and his votes received, as TUV not Reform

    I don’t believe they will let defections game the system

  17. Entropy

    But it’s much more complicated than that, because ‘the left’ as you term it (i.e. the NFP) have perhaps surprisingly strong differing views. Which ‘left’ could Ensemble work with that has enough synergies?

    Surely the most likely combination is Ensemble, Socialists, Greens and Les Republicains – given that Ensemble have been pretty clear they can’t work with La Insoumise and a probably even larger majority of the country would be scared of Melenchon in government than the RN.

    I can’t immediately see what share of NFP was LI, I assume they were the largest component or was that the Socialists in the end? Either way, NFP would have been a minority of the 180 seats won by NFP so <90 somewhere.

    158 Ens
    85 Socialists and Greens (minimum, think they must have won more than that between them)
    = 243

    Meaning they need c.50 more out of 39 Republicans and 45 Miscellaneous groups across the left-right spectrum, in order to form a majority government (or confidence and supply).

  21. Some French Cartoons
    [p.s. I have don e my best with the French translations, but it is likely that some of you may know the colloquial sayings and phrases better than I do. All corrections / suggestions are welcome.]

    Lara (for La Canard Enchaîné)
    At the HQ of the RN
    “Here, the faces are pale, white” “Even more than usual”

    Urbs (for La Canard Enchaîné)
    The police mobilised for nothing.
    “Already disappointed by the left” [- perhaps felling let down by finding parties after than riots?]

    Meanwhile, at the Ciotti residence…”
    “Wait, you are going to lock yourself away where?”

    N.b Eric Ciotti, who bears a passing resemblance to one Peter Dutton, split Les Républicains by allying himself with Marine Le Pen

    Marco De Angelis

    French Political TV talk shows tonight

    Jose Aroca

    Cocoboer (For Libération)
    Risk of unrest after the results.
    “What? The RN did not get a majority?”
    [The CRS of the Police Nationale are responsible for public order and crowd control]

    l’Humanité

    Diego Aranega for La Canard Enchaîné)
    Déception
    “You know what, now we’re both screwed / out of. Job . “We could have been taken for “relatively” racist”.
    [I think it is Ciotti with the glasses and paramilitary gear]

    ================================
    Stolen from the Internet
    Weeping Woman with Handkerchief, by Pablo Picasso, 1937

    Pup Fiction
    “Le Pen is not mightier than l’accord”


    [Bolloré has promoted the RN: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincent_Bolloré%5D

  22. Anyone know what about western/northwest France (Pays de la Loire, Bretagne etc) that makes it so strong for Ensemble?

    Makes sense that the Sun belt would be conservative as like everywhere, older conservative people tend to like to retire in those areas, and the north of France is France’s rustbelt, with Trump style voters I guess. Big cities unsurprisingly vote left. The western suburbs of Paris, where there is a lot of wealth, but nkt necessarily conservative views understandly votes Ensemble.

  23. Adam,

    Anyone know what about western/northwest France (Pays de la Loire, Bretagne etc) that makes it so strong for Ensemble?

    I am just guessing, but perhaps local factors to do with the dominant industry / culture, and a strong pinch of luck?

    Please bear with me while I give an explanation, but it is very hand-waving, only underpinned by my knowledge of what happened in some seats around Bordeaux, in the south-west.

    Firstly, this election was unusual in that after the election was called by Macron (to everyone’s surprise):

    1) The broad left – everyone to the left of Macron (Ensemble) – quickly got their shit together and decided to form a New Popular Front (Nouveau Front Populaire – NFP). While a number of parties were included in the NFP, the alliance only ran one candidate in each seat (circonscription) for the first round. So rather than the usual 3 – 5 candidates, people who wanted to vote generically left, had one umbrella candidate to vote for.

    2) After the first round, this meant that in the majority of seats, a left (NFP) candidate made it through to the second round.

    3) In the second round, there were many seats where three candidates, including a Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National candidate, were on the ballot.

    4) Rather than split the anti-RN vote between Macron’s Ensemble and the NFP, both parties / groups agreed to withdraw their candidate if they came third. In most cases, this meant that there was only two candidates on the second round ballot: An RN candidate, and one candidate from either Ensemble or NFP.

    5) On the day of the second round, the majority of French electorates chose either Ensemble or NFP candidates over Le Pen’s RN.

    6) So is their something about the French north west that meant that in the first round the Ensemble candidate was likely to finish with more votes that the NPF candidate? This question begs a null hypothesis analysis, but really, that probably would not give a decisive answer: too many confounded variables. Or, putting it another way, I would love to know the answer to this research, but I am far too lazy to think about doing it myself.

    Back to the hand-waving:

    So, what factors meant that a circonscription went with an Ensemble (Macron) over NPF in the second round? Or why did La Rochelle and Brittany elect Ensemble candidates rather than those of the NFP?

    Often it was just down to whether the Ensemble or NFP candidate polled the most votes in the first round, and often there was not a large amount of difference. But the one who came third dropped out.

    But this is a superficial analysis. I might bore you in another post with how things worked out in the 10th circonscription in La Gironde. It did seem to rest on local factors as to whether the NFP or the Ensemble candidate were on the second round ballot.

  27. Douglas and Milko,

    The trend was very consistent across that area so I suspect there is a lot more behind it than sheer luck. Perhaps there’s something in the cider?

  30. @Adrian

    “The composition of the 182 NFP members . . .. Adding Ensemble’s 168 to NFP. . .”

    According to Wikipedia, NFP won 180 in total and Ensemble 159.

  31. Approx. votes won in 2nd round in France:

    Combined right: 12.5m
    Combined left: 7.5m
    Centre: 7m

    Will be interesting to see how well everyone gets on with each other and how these alliances, and new ones, evolve into the future.

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