Some data relating to the Coalition’s nuclear energy plans, along with a couple of other things, has helped filled the void in what loomed as a quiet week on the polling front:
• Nine Newspapers had a fresh Resolve Strategic poll focused entirely on the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal, with no voting intention numbers provided. While this found 41% support for use of nuclear power with 37% opposed, it also found (following a lengthy explanation) 43% preferring “Labor’s plan to use 100% renewables (supported by gas for the next decade or two)” against 33% for “the Coalition’s plan to use nuclear power and some gas to support the renewables”. Nuclear was also the second least favoured energy source out of a list of eleven options, behind coal, with rooftop solar and hydro-electric power most favoured. The poll was conducted from Thursday, a day after Peter Dutton’s announcement, to Sunday, from a sample of 1003.
• Further data on nuclear energy, albeit not from the wake of Peter Dutton’s announcement, is provided by Freshwater Strategy, which has consistently asked respondents if they support or oppose seven designated energy sources in their polling going back to May last year. The last three monthly results have been the most positive for nuclear to date, the latest finding 37% in favour and 32% opposed, but like Resolve Strategic it finds nuclear consistently rated second lowest after coal. The Australian reported on Saturday that Freshwater Strategy conducted further polling for the Coalition focusing on the electorates proposed as sites for the plants, with 59% of those in Maranoa in favour and 33% opposed, 55% in Gippsland in favour with 40% opposed, 52% in O’Connor in favour with 38% opposed, and 51% in Grey in favour with 45% opposed, with tighter but still net favourable results in Calare, Flynn and Hunter.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 51-49, after a tied result last week, from primary votes of Labor 31.5% (up two), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 6% (up one). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1696, thus partly before Peter Dutton’s announcement and part after, with its movements well within the boundaries of this pollster’s usual volatility.
• RedBridge Group has a small sample poll from the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Labor, Liberal and the Greens polled almost exactly equal shares of the vote in 2022, with Labor rather than the Greens winning after the latter very narrowly went under at the last exclusion. The good news for Labor is that the poll, which was conducted June 13 to 20, finds the Greens at 21% compared with their 29.7% at the election. The bad news is a two-party swing to the Liberals that reduces their margin from 12.2% at the election to 5% in the poll, with Labor’s primary vote down from 31.7% to 30% and the Liberals up from 29.0% to 36%. However, the poll’s sample of 401 puts the margin of error at around 5%.
• YouGov has published a finding from its last federal poll, conducted three weeks ago, suggesting no particular enthusiasm for capitalism over socialism, with 31% of respondents rating themselves between six and ten on a scale running from zero for socialism to ten for capitalism and 27% placing themselves from zero to four, with 42% for the “neutral” option of five. Socialism was favoured by fully 41% of the 18-to-34 age cohort, compared with 23% for capitalism. The poll was conducted May 31 to June 4 from a sample of 1500.
Per the YouGov poll, I look forward to seeing how the younger generations continue to identify the failings of the capitalist system, especially its failings in addressing immediate action regarding climate change…
MI, then I respect your views on this; too often we see complaints relating to nicotine and smoking, and not the equivalent. As much as I may have utopian views at heart, I also view the removal of the usual suspects (either through prohibition or education) as pretty much impossible; restrict access to adults, education system for the youngsters, and massive crackdown on entities found to be selling/trading to the youth
MB
There IS no nuclear option to consider so it is improper to discuss it as if it exists.
They don’t know their emissions targets between now and 2050.
They don’t know that reactors don’t last for a century.
They don’t know by when their unknown emissions target will be met.
They don’t know whether or not they are pulling out of the Paris Accords.
They don’t have a target percentage nuclear contribution to power.
They don’t know the completion date.
They don’t know how much radioactive waste they will generate.
They don’t know what kind of reactors they are buying.
They don’t know the size of the reactors they are buying.
They don’t know how many reactors they are buying.
They don’t know when Snowy 2.0 will be finished.
They don’t know where on the renewables growth trajectory their nuclear plan is supposed to kick in.
They don’t know whether the owners of six of their seven sights agree on use of their sites. (They don’t).
They know how much this will cost and will let us know shortly.
They don’t know the level of the investment cap that they will put on renewables.
They don’t know when they will enforce the investment cap on wind and solar.
They don’t know how long they will enforce the investment cap on renewables.
Uranium reserves are therefore 100% irrelevant.
Current technologies already allow for 100% renewables supported by batteries, smoothed by a networked grid and firmed by gas. These technologies are improving at warp speed. It is irrational to compare this proven technology with three-eyed brain-dead bullshit.
Dutton’s nuclear plan is a sick and nationally destructive joke – up there with Ivermectin and bleach. It is already creating investment certainty.
It deserves nothing more three eyes mockery.
Still a lot of smokers among operators of High Risk machinery
, Medico’s, I believe, people whose work involves focus and concentration, which nicotine assist with.
Years ago when Excise was raised in a Budget, ABC commentators called it a Tax on the Lower Classes, which it is, imo.
The argument from the Banning Classes, that counts life years lost to smoking, doesn’t take account of the likely productivity of those lost years or the possible productivity gains of the smokers years smoking versus not smoking.
Lordbain @ #52 Tuesday, June 25th, 2024 – 8:52 am
Cheers.
I’m certainly not living in some rosy land where I think probation is a hermetically sealed solution. Black markets exist. But if we can remove easy access to incredibly addictive substances which have been shown time and again to exacerbate poverty, kill people decades early, contribute to personal and family misery, then I am all for it.
Badthinker @ #54 Tuesday, June 25th, 2024 – 8:58 am
That you are a shill for tobacco makes perfect sense.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Thanks for getting to the bottom of O’Brien’s fishy fission finance too.
Speaking of financing Dutton’s nuclear thought bubble, I also have a problem with the question of inter-state financial equity with the Dutton nuclear plan.
Some states are much further along the path to transition to net zero than others. Here in SA we already average 80% renewable energy, burn no coal, and have plans to build batteries and grid upgrades in place that will achieve net zero before 2030. Yet we are still expected to see a nuclear reactor at Port Augusta.
Why? This will increase the cost of SA power for fifty years, to help other states meet a target we would have already achieved without it.
Nationalising the cost and debt means all taxpayers pay for this scheme, when not all benefit from it equally. Some (SA, Tassie) don’t benefit at all.
Vic and WA get one reactor each, so 1/7th of the cost/work/benefit, but will surely pay a much larger share of the cost in taxes.
In summary it seems to me, if the reactor prices are similar, that SA, Tassie, Vic and WA are large net financial losers from this, while Qld is a net financial winner.
It was hard enough to get a GST deal. How will states agree a deal to fund a hugely expensive system that sees some states benefit by tens of billions, while other states get both higher taxes and higher power costs to pay for it?
meher baba
…
It seems to me that there is a widespread expectation that we will be able to reach 100% renewables through a significant breakthrough in storage technology which are yet to occur.
…
For ever we have had pumped hydro.
As the industry installs batteries to deal with the issue MB writes rubbish as above.
Mostly Interested at 9:05 am
…
Yours is the attitude of the Wowser.
I’ve outlined the reasons for smoking, everyone has free will.
The present approach attracts criminals and brings the law into disrepute.
Not saying that was the intent all along, that would be a CP.
But that’s how it’s worked out, Prohibition is the glaring example of what happens when muddle headed Legislators are gripped by the Moral Panic du jour.
The same bully boys who had a melt down at the three eyes meme took the opportunity while launching their nuclear ‘plan’ to make extremely vicious and sustained personal attacks on Bowen and Albanese.
Socrates
Keep Victoria out of it, we have well established plans to get to net zero. Granted the Liberals could still get in power and screw it up.
Adam Bandt regurgitating tired old tropes – which his party has contributed to the decade long inaction on climate change.
Since May 2022, the action is back underway – legislated targets, industrial transformation and decarbonisation of the economy designed, funded and being measured,
All Bandt can do is whinge and lie – time he was managed out before he causes another Coalition government to befall us..
It should be a science based appointment, not a political appointment .
We know Labor and Liberal, both back more coal and gas, under Matt Kean’s time in New South Wales they backed the fast tracking of gas.
I’m concerned that that the Climate Change Authority might be moving away from giving frank and fearless science based advice, but we’ll watch it closely.
I think we’ll give him a chance, but it’s got to be a science based target.
Labor and Liberal both seem to think you can make climate targets by opening new coal and gas. I hope that’s not the advice that comes from the new Climate Change Authority.
Guardian
Frednk
Then as I said Vic is another net financial loser from the Dutton nuke plan. That is my point. We will all get taxed equally when the main financial benefits from it flow to Qld. For SA, Tassie, Vic and WA that is a lousy deal.
NSW also gets 2 reactors but has a larger tax base so probably ends up square.
I must say the greens have pushed the chemist into an interesting experiment.
To the chemist for your cocaine, hereon and LSD.
Looks like Dutton is employing Steve Bannon’s tactics, including shameless lies to disorientate, etc:
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/16/media/steve-bannon-reliable-sources/index.html
We will all pay Dutton’s Nuclear Tax.
Those ‘who can see the plant’ – according to Barnyard – will get rebates of the Nuclear Tax.
Which in no way will offset the fall in their property values.
What is the smoking rate in Australia?
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ National Health Survey, the prevalence of daily smoking for Australians aged 18 and over in 2022 was 10.6%, and 10.2% among people aged 15 years
From Euronews,
A great achievement to reduce smoking numbers in Australia over the last 50 years.
The current shenanigans in Parliament to allow vaping at all is not helpful.
Socrates
Agreed.
As NSW has the bigger problem, the appointment of Matt Kean is an interesting development.
Badthinker @ #59 Tuesday, June 25th, 2024 – 9:19 am
Parent are you? Stop your child walking into traffic do you?
That’s what a wowser does, they look out for those who have free will but exercises it in a fashion which not only hurts them but those around them, and guess what so do caring societies. They put guard rails in place so that exercises in free will dont kill you unnecessarily. If a person then sees these guard rails and chooses to jump them, so be it. Horse, water, blah blah, blah.
Go exercise your sovereign citizenship roleplay someplace else.
hey sprocket, remind me again – is the labor policy based on the advice of scientists, because yesterday you stated it wasnt.
So how is Bandt lying 🙂
‘science-based’ creates a false narrative which suits the Greens politically.
What a surprise.
We would shut down the economy totally right now to get to 100% ‘science-based’.
Then you dont get to complain when people criticise your policies as not being based on scientific advice.
How is it so hard for some of you to grasp; you can claim that the approach as directed by the scientific organisations is “impractical”… and thats your right to do so.
You then dont get to turn around and claim that a) your policies are, and b) that others raising it are lying.
Sprocket
I agree we will all pay Dutton’s nuclear tax, but the benefits, and lucrative contracts, will not flow equally.
Therefore, as well as being costly and inequitable, Dutton’s plan will be divisive.
Now that the Greens have capitulated to the Tobacco industry in the name of “workability”, now is the time from them to think sensibility on on a bigger problem like climate change and cooperate on workable solutions with the government.
Or perhaps the Greens show that they are just another political party?
Rural jobs, energy security for our allies, wind farm and transmission line fights in the bush? Not our problem, shut it all down now! (except Tasmania, too special for renewables…)
Vaping flooding schools and creating a generation of nicotine addicts? Well we can’t stop OUR people having a smoke!
Opinion: Labor and the ‘Problem Child’ States.
TASMANIA
The ‘problem child’ State that came out of 2022 for Labor was Tasmania where Labor could not regain 2 seats lost in 2019 (Bass and Braddon), the 2PP margin in those seats got bigger and Labor almost lost another seat (Lyons) with a -4.9% 2PP swing against the sitting member. We are only talking about 5 seats State-wide. However, Tasmania was the only State where Labors 2PP went backwards in 2022, sliding 2.2% 2PP. With the dearth of quality candidates around for Labor in Tasmania, hanging on to Lyons in 2025 will probably be the best Labor can do in 2025. Yes, the member for Braddon has quit because his neighbour in Bass was crossing the floor too much, but the margin in Braddon may be enough after a +4.9 % swing to the Liberal in 2022.
QUEENSLAND
What about Labor’s most difficult and significant ‘problem child’, Queensland. There has been no seat recovery for Labor since 2010 when the State filed for divorce from the “Kevin again in 2010” attempts to repeat the “Ruddslide’ of 2007. The best Labor could do in Queensland in 2022 was claw back 4.0 % of the State-wide 2PP margin, drag 6 LNP seats back within a 6.0 % 2PP margin (Bonner, Petrie, Flynn, Ford, Capricornia and Bowman) and put a smaller dent in 3 others (Dickson, Longman and Leichardt). Queenslanders love a home grown PM, so Dutton might put the brakes on the LNP 2PP slide that happened in 2022 if he plays his cards right and leads the Opposition to the election in 2025.
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
This State typically gives the Coalition twice as many seats as it does Labor so there is merit in the argument that the result in 2022 was much more an anti-Scomo vote than an anti-Liberal vote and not really a pro-Labor vote switch in 2022. Thank you COVID 19 and a very popular Labor State Premier.
The State which handed Labor a majority government was Western Australia which had a massive 10.1 % State-wide swing against the Coalition. This result handed 4 Liberal seats to the Labor Party (Hasluck, Swan, Tangney and Pearce) and another one to an Independent (Curtin). At this point there does not to seem to be a specific reason why 10% of West Australians would flip back to the Coalition in 2025 after giving a huge ‘up yours’ to Scomo in 2022, but probably enough to put Tangney (2.9 %) and the new seat of Bullwinkel (nominally a Labor seat on 2.9%) in the extinction danger zone.
So, not much in the way of seat gain prospects for Labor in Queensland unless there is a strong anti Dutton nukes push in the least likely State where that might happen, hanging on to Lyons the best hopes for Labor in Tasmania where no nukes are on the horizon, and 2 seats in WA which might end up on the Coalition team in 2025. You can’t have it all your way in a democracy. The biggest battles methinks (typically so) will be in the outer metropolitan seats of NSW and Victoria where the Israel-Hamas war and climate change action v the cost of living will leave their mark and could put Labor into minority government if Dutton can convince the punters that his nuke energy plant will be better for the cost of living despite Nuclear being much less cost efficient to renewables and the time it will take to put Nuke power on the grid. I think he is going to struggle to sell that puppie to a majority of punters.
Badthinker, I am both an ex-smoker and a high risk worker (heavy truck driver doing 400-700km a day on country roads).
Your idea of nicotine assisting concentration and therefore safety tells me that you probably haven’t done this kind of work before. When I smoked, I was less energetic compared to now and on top of concentrating on the job, I also had to concentrate on my next cigarette.
Sleep is the biggest factor in how good I can concentrate and keep a 2.5 metre wide, 19 metre long, 49.5 ton vehicle between two white lines at 100km/h on rough roads for 10 hours a day.
Quitting smoking was one of the best things I ever did and I have far more freedom than I did as a smoker.
BW: “Current technologies already allow for 100% renewables supported by batteries, smoothed by a networked grid and firmed by gas. These technologies are improving at warp speed. It is irrational to compare this proven technology with three-eyed brain-dead bullshit.”
—————————————————————————-
If there is gas being burnt, then it can’t possibly be “100% renewables supported by batteries.”
I’ll say it again “net zero emissions” is not the same as “100% renewables.” Net zero emissions could mean that renewables are capable of producing 120 per cent of the power we need, but not always at the right time in the right places. This situation might not be capable of being rectified for many decades to come, or forever. But what I don’t believe to be entirely clear is the likely size of the gap between future demand and the capacity of a renewables only network to deliver power to every last user in Australia.
Some of the modelling I’ve seen is quite encouraging, particularly if the level of demand relative to the size of the population doesn’t grow significantly (the greatest risks here seeming to be major new industrial sites and/or the requirement to recharge ever more EVs). It ought to be possible fairly soon to meet almost all of the power needs of the major population centres through renewables. But there is going to be a gap between demand and supply, particularly the further you get away from major centres. The likely size of that gap, and how to address it, will require further analysis.
If we are going for the cheapest option to fill that gap, then surely we should go with coal. But I don’t notice too many of the people lambasting Dutton’s proposal for being too expensive suggesting that coal is the superior option. So it isn’t simply about gross cost. It’s about net costs and net benefits. Nuclear warrants a place in that debate. As I have posted before, it is almost certainly ruled out by the upfront cost of getting it going. But that cost has to continue to be measured against the size of any future requirements for non-renewables.
But I don’t think nuclear should be excluded from the debate out of hand. I don’t like the way that political partisanship has dominated the debate over the past week. Dutton is significantly to blame for this, but so is the government, which thinks it will get more mileage out of a scare campaign than it would out by providing the appropriate response of stating that all options will continue to be considered but that nuclear doesn’t look all that good at this stage on a cost-benefit basis.
The 100% science says that it is generally safer not to use recreational drugs.
Badthinker @ #24 Tuesday, June 25th, 2024 – 7:47 am
Defeatist. Just like a true Liberal.
What next? How great is adaptation? 😐
Gas has 50% of the emissions of coal. It is being used to transition to Renewables, Pumped Hydro and Batteries, with an increasingly diminished amount of gas.
We don’t need nuclear as part of that mix.
For those of you who are interested in the management of flow processes for manufacturing or any other field that has sequential steps, this paper is by far the best I have ever come across. What it proposes is a multi-hybrid of the Toyota Production System, kanban, Theory of Constraints, the work of Shewart and Deming and, without quoting it, the concept of Value Stream Mapping.
It brings back memories of my endeavours since about 1994.
https://psychsafety.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Standing_on_the_shoulders_of_giants_production_con.pdf
BK
Thanks. To me it is a modern tragedy that Toyota do not seem to have applied that philosophy to making EVs.
BK
Thanks. I will read it at leisure.
It reminds me a bit of a remote possible example of when not to let locals decide outputs.
During WW2 Brit airfields often held ‘spare’ parts inventories that were enough to build from scratch several aircraft. The maintenence crews were responsible for making airworthy existing aircraft.
The more spares they had the more likely it was that the could achieve that KPI.
Something for the Nuclear Duttonators to consider:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/24/climate-crisis-driving-exponential-rise-in-most-extreme-wildfires
A pragmatic decision.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-25/julian-assange-set-to-plead-guilty-to-us-espionage-charge/104017664
THANKS BK
According to Phil Coorey, Government plans to raise the tax rate on superannuation accounts valued at more than $3 million have suffered a blow, with key Senate crossbenchers opposed to the taxation of unrealised gains.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/new-blow-to-labor-s-tax-hit-on-super-20240624-p5jo55.
Here we go again: I remember Scomo warning the punters that Labor was “coming after your super” in 2022 or was it 2019 ? Another scare campaign to scare off the punters can be expected if this legislation gets over the line in the Senate. Oh it might only be for those in the $3M plus range now, but thats just a start they will say. Ughh !!
Soc
Another win for Albanese/Wong approach to foreign affairs.
… people whose work involves focus and concentration, which nicotine assist with
Have you heard of caffeine? Much safer. Same effect. 😐
Not that ‘Medicos’, surgeons at least, are even allowed to drink coffee. They certainly wouldn’t go near nicotine. They’re too well-informed about the physiological consequences. Unlike ill-informed, know nothings like you, Badthinker.
Anyone who thinks surgeons dont go near anything caffeine or above has never talked to a doctor…
Scotland Yard has been accused of leaking the identities of Tories implicated in the general election betting scandal. The Telegraph has also been told that a further five police officers are currently under investigation by the Gambling Commission, the industry watchdog, for placing bets on the date of the general election.
A source close to the Cabinet Office said it was suspected that the identities of Conservative candidates and officials had been leaked from within the Metropolitan Police, Britain’s biggest force. While the identities of Tories accused of placing bets have been made public, the extent of the alleged involvement of police officers in placing bets had not until now.
One of Rishi Sunak’s close protection officers has already been arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office over alleged bets placed on the timing of the election, but police are braced for further arrests. The claims threaten to drag the Met into the political controversy that has engulfed Mr Sunak’s election campaign.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/24/tory-gambling-scandal-accused-leaked-by-met-police-election/
What is behind Murdoch’s disgusting attack on Dutton via his tabloids? The attack is obviously being coordinated in the upper levels of management but why?
DT and Hun have the entire front page, CM has the lower part of the front page.
Hh
The mother of all shambolic election campaigns. Worst ever?
Sandman,
Your analysis doesn’t seem to provide a pathway back to government for the Coalition, even if there is a hung parliament. I strongly believe that the Coalition, with the announcement of their nuclear policy, has all but guaranteed that the Teals won’t have a bar of them should a hung parliament eventuate in 2025.
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange plans to plead guilty to a conspiracy charge this week as part of a plea deal with the U.S. Justice Department that will allow him to go free after spending five years in a British prison, according to court documents.
Assange was charged by criminal information — which typically signifies a plea deal — with conspiracy to obtain and disclose national defense information, the court documents say. A letter from Justice Department official Matthew McKenzie to U.S. District Judge Ramona Manglona of the U.S. District Court for the Northern Mariana Islands said that Assange would appear in court at 9 a.m. local time on Wednesday (or, 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday) to plead guilty and said that DOJ expects Assange will return to Australia, his country of citizenship, after the proceedings.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/julian-assange-reached-plea-deal-us-allowing-go-free-rcna158695
https://www.energy.gov.au › rene…
Renewables – | energy.gov.au
The figures for renewable energy in Australia in 2032 or 2042 or 2052 will be something spectacularly in excess of the 2022 figures.
Meanwhile back in Europe and elsewhere, many governments are now attempting to move away from their “addiction” to nuclear energy.
The use of carbon fuels was accepted yonks ago as unacceptable.
Why would Australia leap into nuclear after the fact ?
Australia is a leading entity in the move to renewables and will lead the world in the transition to sustainable energy sources.
If the building of nuclear facilities began tomorrow, they wouldn’t be ready until the mid 2040s, at which time Australia will definitely not need their miniscule contribution of nuclear to energy at great cost.
This whole nuclear conversation is about “ditzy” politicians wanting to be significant, some of those with alcohol induced balance problems desperate for significant crutches and pathetic wannabes from the now disgraced profession of journalism, attempting some obviously untrue justifications for their “life” work.
Nuclear is “orbital” at best, directionless and unnecessary.
Lets not weaponise Dutton’s kid getting caught with a bag of happy gas. I hope he gets treatment and moves on to better things. Why did the MSM paste it all over the front page ? To sell hard copy newspapers and online click bait with accompanying advertising. Simple.
Lordbain @ #91 Tuesday, June 25th, 2024 – 10:27 am
Just to make a sledge against me, because you are obsessed with me, you seek to characterise surgeons as a bunch of reprobates. You are a sad little man.
C@t
You are a sad little man.
__________________________________
A lot of assumptions in that sentence.
If the Murdochracy has turned on Dutton expect puff pieces on Angus the Forger very soon.
Sandman says:
Tuesday, June 25, 2024 at 10:33 am
Lets not weaponise Dutton’s kid getting caught with a bag of happy gas. I hope he gets treatment and moves on to better things. Why did the MSM paste it all over the front page ? To sell hard copy newspapers and online click bait with accompanying advertising. Simple.
_____________________________________________
I said this last night on the previous post thread and I think it is worth repeating.
“I know about the argument of wheeling your kids and family out for photo ops means they are fair game, but youngsters (and is at least up to 21) often don’t have the choice or the judgement to say no when this happens. They shouldn’t be punished by being held up to ridicule unless they put themselves out there as adults.
What if it was your teenager out there on the front page of the tabloids?”