Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The UK general election will be held on July 4. The Guardian’s aggregate of national polls has Labour on 41.9% (down 1.0 since last Monday’s article), the Conservatives on 21.4% (down 0.9), the far-right Reform on 15.0% (up 1.4), the Liberal Democrats on 10.9% (up 0.6) and the Greens on 5.7% (steady).
Most individual polls have Reform between 16% and 19%, within a few points of overtaking the Conservatives for second place. The most spectacular poll in the last week was a People Polling poll that had Labour on 35%, Reform on 24% and the Conservatives on 15%. While other polls have had Reform just ahead or tied with the Conservatives, no other poll has been close to People Polling’s numbers.
The Electoral Calculus site has lower vote shares for Labour and the Conservatives than The Guardian (39.5% Labour, 19.9% Conservative) and higher Reform and Lib Dem votes (17.8% Reform, 11.6% Lib Dems). But with first past the post, the forecast is for Labour to win 457 of the 650 House of Commons seats, to 76 for the Conservatives, 66 for the Lib Dems, 22 for the Scottish National Party, just three for Reform and two for the Greens.
Labour remains ahead of the SNP in Scottish polls, which represents a big swing to Labour and against the SNP since the 2019 election in Scotland. If replicated at the election, Labour will make large seat gains in Scotland, where they won just one of 59 seats in 2019.
There are two recent seat polls of Clacton, which Reform leader Nigel Farage is contesting. Both polls have Farage easily winning, with a 15-point lead in Survation and a 27-point lead in JL Partners. The Conservatives won 71.9% in Clacton in 2019, but are in the 20s in these two polls, with Farage in the 40s. A seat poll in PM Rishi Sunak’s seat has Sunak leading Labour by 39-28 with 18% for Reform, so Sunak should hold his seat.
French election: Far-right National Rally likely to win most seats
The French parliamentary election will be held on June 30 (first round) and July 7 (runoffs). In first round polls, the far-right National Rally (RN) and its allies are in the mid-30s, the left-wing alliance of four parties (NFP) is in the high-20s, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble is just over 20% and the conservative Republicans are on about 8%.
This means that Ensemble are likely to be eliminated from the runoffs in the large majority of the 577 seats, which will be RN vs NFP contests. Seat forecasts suggest RN will win about 250 seats, short of the 289 needed for a majority. A poll of hypothetical runoff contests had RN beating NFP by 41-33 but losing to Ensemble by 40-37, implying that if Ensemble could make the final two, RN would do much worse.
US: Biden closes on Trump ahead of debate
The US general election will be held on November 5. There will be a debate hosted by CNN between Joe Biden and Donald Trump this Thursday (Friday at 11am AEST). Biden has moved ahead of Trump by 0.3% in the last week in the FiveThirtyEight national aggregate, reversing a one-point Trump lead previously. Biden has also gained in the key states that will decide the Electoral College, with Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania effectively tied. Biden needs to win all three of these states for a 270-268 EC win.
Near-final European parliament election result
There were 720 total seats for the European parliament election that was held June 6-9 by proportional representation in the various countries, up 15 seats from the post-Brexit European parliament. The conservative European People’s Party won 189 seats (up two since 2019 adjusted for Brexit), the centre-left Socialists and Democrats 136 (down 12), the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists 83 (up 21), the liberal Renew 74 (down 23), the far-right Identity and Democracy 58 (down 18), the Greens 51 (down 16), the far-left 39 (down one) and all Others 90 (up 54). The Others group includes far-right parties that were expelled or resigned from other groups, such as Germany’s Alternative for Germany and Hungary’s governing Fidesz.
Thank you Adrian! Side note: this is very 1938.
Mabwm
Putin is pushing Europe to precipice
Only 10 seats difference predicted between the Conservatives and Lib Dems? If that’s true and they fall any further, wow, the Lib Dems could be the official opposition party.
I hope I am wrong about this but it appears wheels are coming off European political system. European People are turning to far-right/neo-fascist parties justifying that by saying that they are just another party. With Farage party polling and threatening to replace Tories as main opposition and Trump breathing down Biden political neck, things are looking dire for centrist and left parties. Unfortunately, it appears significant portion of youth, who were Left voter base, are partly responsible for it.
Their idealism is severely tested by 4 things
1. Ukrain war
2. COL due to point 1
3. Gaza war
4. Underwhelming response (according to them) to Climate change threat.
They could be feeling like the ‘boy on the burning deck’. In response, they could be turning against traditional parties to ‘burn the joint’.
Vensays:
Monday, June 24, 2024 at 2:43 pm
I hope I am wrong about this but it appears wheels are coming off European political system. European People are turning to far-right/neo-fascist parties justifying that by saying that they are just another party. With Farage party polling and threatening to replace Tories as main opposition and Trump breathing down Biden political neck, things are looking dire for centrist and left parties. Unfortunately, it appears significant portion of youth, who were Left voter base, are partly responsible for it.
Their idealism is severely tested by 4 things
1. Ukrain war
2. COL due to point 1
3. Gaza war
4. Underwhelming response (according to them) to Climate change threat.
They could be feeling like the ‘boy on the burning deck’. In response, they could be turning against traditional parties to ‘burn the joint’.
___________________________________________________________
The rise of the far right is directly related to Europe being unable to control immigration. If immigration had been orderly with successful integration the far right would only be a fringe element. The way to hell is paved with good intentions.
European Parliament:
A bit crude because of the broad groupings, but this is:
Right +59
Left -52
Not quite sure why they don’t add up, probably due to reallocations since Brexit that Adrian has included.
UK
The Lib Dems 11-12% share of the vote at the forthcoming GE is set to be the most efficient 11-12% ever under FPTP, by a long way.
They are set to get nearly a proportion of seats in proportion to their vote shares, which shows their ruthlessly effective localism and understanding of their target seats.
Obviously with the perfect scenario for them of the Conservatives imploding and people wanting them out – if Lab and Con votes were the other way round, Lib Dems would remain stuck on about a dozen seats, but all their 2nd places are in Con-held seats where they are more seen as centrist or even ‘Liberal Tories’ despite their left-wing manifesto.
Of course, as always if they got into government they would come unstuck through this being all things to all people in different parts of the country.
But they know they are safe this time to say what they like and be seen as the ‘nice guys’ with Labour so firmly in majority territory, and with little scrutiny of their costings / policies compared to the other 3 main parties.
It will be interesting to see Reform’s polling following Nigel Farage’s heavily publicised ‘Russia’ comments.
In theory they should fall a few points, but it’s not that simple – and I’m not sure those votes wouldn’t go to Labour, Lib Dem (as the other alternative to the ‘big 2’ who are so unloved) or to ‘stay at home’ more than back to the Tories with their current ‘betting-gate’ scandal.
Steelydan
A couple of points
As I posted earlier, most of Young people are idealistic. Hence, they are not against immigration as such.
Sencondly, it is extremely difficult to have orderly immigration in Europe mainly due to middle east wars since early 2000s and severe climate change effects.
Hence, it is very difficult to have ‘orderly’ immigration when people are fleeing their native places to the nearest place, where no war is fought, for survival after Europe and USA caused most of them and especially if the passage is not impossible.
The thing is governments have to be cruel like LNP governments to stop the boats.
For far-right parties, Immigration gambit is ‘look at me’ tactic.
Dutch far-right Wilders rescended his policy of demolishing Mosques once he came to power. We will see how he will govern.
BT – Farage’s Russian comments certainly has turned off some of the right wing Newspapers. But whether they still have any influence over voters is yet to be seen. Given lots of remaining Tory/Reform voters are older and still read the papers it is likely to be more impactful than if it had groups that are attractive to younger voters.
Steely at 3.42pm. Immigration is probably a factor, but is it worth thinking about why that may be?
Migrants are coming from shit hole countries. They were made shit holes to a significant degree due to exploitation by first world countries, the Europeans being among the main culprits.
Perhaps some support to improve conditions at home would encourage people to stay there.
The numbers seem to indicate a possibility for a complete collapse of the Tory vote. It’s always hard to predict how FPTP will play out, especially with a new(ish) party in play and with the prospects of a thumping Labor win in the offing. But every poll with Reform ahead of Tory will give more right wing voters the confidence that voting Reform is the way to go and it is the Tory votes that will be wasted rather than the reverse.
If Reform cuts the Tories’ lunch and either wins or vote-splits in Tory heartland seats enough that the Tories lose most of those seats, could we see the end of the Tory party as we know it?
“A poll of hypothetical runoff contests had RN beating NFP by 41-33 but losing to Ensemble by 40-37, implying that if Ensemble could make the final two, RN would do much worse.”
I imagine this is the horse Macron intends to ride hard over the next week.
Is there a shy Tory factor? Maybe. But the way polls are done now (online via either a computer or phone) where a voter doesn’t need to verbalise that they are going to vote Conservative to an actual person. That was the problem with phone or face to face interviews.
So if there really is a shy Tory effect happening it won’t be more than a few percent.
“for survival after Europe and USA caused most of them” (wars)
In a fantasy alternative universe, that is.
@Arky
“If Reform cuts the Tories’ lunch and either wins or vote-splits in Tory heartland seats enough that the Tories lose most of those seats, could we see the end of the Tory party as we know it?”
It’s definitely a possibility.
The vote spread is perfect for Labour maximising their win, with the biggest swings set to be exactly where they need them to win the most seats.
Conversely, Reform votes will be spread in a way that – at this snapshot in time anyway – would win them very few seats. Their most natural territory is old Labour terrain, but good luck winning seats there at this election where Labour are sweeping into government. They will get a lot of – often fairly distant, but some close – 2nd places here.
They were making inroads into old Tory places in the Home Counties (who did not latterly like UKIP or Brexit party or vote heavily for ‘Leave’ in general), much like UKIP did initially c. 2013 – but I predict this will massively sink here now after the ‘Putin’ comments. These are military-friendly, globalist people who will find Farage’s comments anathema whatever context he tries to give them.
The more working class old Labour seats won’t care to the same extent about Farage’s comments – a lot of them might even agree with them and say let’s look after our own and turn a blind eye to other people’s wars and sufferings.
This is starting to feel like the Canadian House of Commons election of 1993, when the ruling Conservatives there were reduced from 156 seats to just two. When a major party’s vote collapses and its side of politics fractures, single-member constituencies with first-past-the-post can resemble a slot machine.
And in 50 years of watching elections I can’t recall a more shambolic campaign, anywhere, than Sunak’s. He’s been like a kamikaze pilot crashing into one of his own ships.
@Michael at 10:13pm
Honestly feeling the same. The main difference being that there’s a few hundred years more of “democracy” in the UK than there is in Canada, so there’s constituencies out there that can never turn on the Tories.
All the same, the Election Maps UK Nowcast has been updated, with estimates for each seat.
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
“Only 10 seats difference predicted between the Conservatives and Lib Dems? If that’s true and they fall any further, wow, the Lib Dems could be the official opposition party.”
Which is really a major thing.
The Leader of the Opposition* (LOTR) is an official title (apparently listed more times in statute than “prime minister”) and comes with a pay bump to just under that of a Cabinet Minister to recognise the constitutional position plus almost £1m to run the LOTRs office.
This is in addition to the ‘Short Money” that supports opposition parties with their parliamentary work (paying for advisors / policy development / research etc)
If the LOTR moves a no confidence motion it will be debated.
They also get up to 6 questions at Prime Ministers Question time. The second largest opposition party only gets 3.
The main opposition party also gets to sit opposite the government with the dispatch box for their speakers to use. They get called first whenever a government statement is made and speaks immediately after the minister in debates. They also get winding up time to sum up at the end of debates before the minister.
The leader and members of the second largest opposition party basically has to fend for themselves and comes lower down the list when the Speaker calls MPs to speak after statements and debates.
* The formal title is Leader of His Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition
@ChrisC interest notes about the costs to the Conservatives if they come third.
My expectation at the start of the Campaign was there be a narrowing, leaving Labour with a solid win, a large majority but not an existential defeat for the Torys. I’m still of that view, but with 10 days to go, the possibility of fatal wound to the Torys is on the cards. While the Labour vote has drifted down, the rise of reform has left the Torys in perhaps a weaker position than when the election was called.
Few points
Ground game: Reform doesn’t have the ground game to ensure their votes peak in the right places (Clacton being an exception). The Torys have more resources to target the seats at risk and therefore are likely to save more seats than would be implied by the overall Reform vote. The same being true, to a lesser extent, for Labour.
Tax apocalypse: Aided by Murdoch press, I’d expect the theme that Labour will tax, tax and tax if they get a “super majority” will be dialled up to 11 and get a few Torys to return to the fold.
Labour has already won: The widespread view that Labour will win might reduce turnout amongst Labour voters or encourage a vote elsewhere (greens, LD, SDP) to make a statement in an election with an otherwise forgone conclusion.
So, I’m still expecting the Torys will make it past 100 seats. However, the bookies give them less than a 50/50 chance of doing so. Will be an interesting count.
(This may be a dumb question from an occasional follower of UK politics).
I can understand the decline in the Tory vote because I see many reasons for it; not just Rishi. What I can’t understand is why Remain would be in the running again?
In my lifetime Brexit would have to have been one of the stupidest foreign and economic policy decisions i have seen. It caused predictable and ongoing damage to the UK economy, including Scotland and Northern Ireland as collateral damage. Nigel Farage, if not the instigator, was at least a key player in its implementation. If Farage turned out to be a Russian agent, it would not shock me.
Why then, are people now willing to vote for Farage again??
To me the current UK economic policy should be called Bregret. It should be followed by Bre-entry or Breturn. No country gets wealthier by cutting itself off from its nearest neighbour and largest trading partner. The bleeding in the UK economy will not stop till Brexit is undone.
@Socrates
One of the reasons I’ve heard is that as despicable as his politics are, Nigel Farage has something that Rishi Sunak doesn’t – charisma. That seems to be working on a lot of people.
Socrates
Possibly because you’ve been reading the wrong things?
There’s no consensus that Brexit has been bad for the UK – though as you can imagine, whilst the Tories are ‘under the cosh’, some of the opposition parties are really milking that line this election whilst there will be less push back.
Reform Party’s current view- shared by mine although I did not vote to leave the EU – is that the UK has wasted the opportunities of Brexit to set our own path.
The truth is, of course, that it has been a very difficult few years since Boris finally got us to leave the EU in January 2020. The pandemic has overshadowed us ever since (in its effects on the economy I mean), along with the war on our doorstep and high costs of oil and then inflation resulting.
So to somehow blame Brexit for recent economic struggles is fairly economically illiterate and simplistic / selective on the data. The UK is behind some other Western European countries since leaving, and ahead of others, notably Germany (in growth or lack of). However, all Western European countries have struggled in this time.
Farage might be a ‘useful idiot’ for Putin at times like this, but he’s still basically a mainstream person as well as a populist, and any idea he might be a Russian agent is for the birds.
Even those who think he’s despicable generally wouldn’t deny he’s a patriot, even if not expressed in the way they would (to put it mildly).
Kirsdarke
Charisma – yes, also very true. Farage is helping fill the ‘charisma gap’ in this election campaign, which is otherwise very dull except for the incredible historic polls themselves.
There’s a close Canadian federal by-election count, with the Liberals up by 41.4-39.9 over the Canadian Tories with 86% of polling places reporting. The loong list of 84 candidates (a record), many with only a few votes, was a protest against FPTP in Canada.
https://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?ed=2237&lang=e
At the 2021 federal election, the Libs won this seat by 49.2-25.3, so this close result isn’t good for the Libs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Toronto%E2%80%94St._Paul%27s_federal_by-election
The next Canadian federal election is due by late 2025, and the Tories are ahead by double digit margins in Canadian polls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_federal_election
Thanks Adrian, forgot that by election was yesterday.
Looks like Liberal has squeaked it, though the fact it was even close seems to be a talking point in itself in a historically safe Liberal seat.
John Oliver is brutal about the Tories’ 14 years in power and sums up the situation well.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/article/2024/jun/24/john-oliver-last-week-tonight-uk-election
Toronto – St Paul By election in Canada – Spare a thought for one of the 84 candidates (Felix-Antoine Hamel) who got zero votes. That takes effort.
The Tories have now dumped the candidates in the betting scandal. Nothing says weakness than not doing something for a week so the story drags on and then folding like a cheap suit.
It is important to either act fast or not act at all. Anything else looks bad.
Toronto-St Paul
I spoke too soon – the Conservative won! – that will send ripples. . .
Kirsdarke
A very tainted / one-sided view as would be expected from that author.
I mean, he would be thinking that even if the Tories were leading the polls in reverse to what it is now.
But of course he does speak for a segment of people, though the decision is a bit more nuanced for some!
Toronto – St Pauls
“The Liberal Party deployed heavy hitters like deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland and a dozen other cabinet ministers to the riding to shore up Church’s support but, in the end, it wasn’t enough.
Voters in the riding told CBC News throughout the campaign that the government’s handling of the housing crisis, inflation and the Israel-Hamas conflict were sore spots.
But it wasn’t just about the issues — a number of voters expressed a desire for change and fatigue with Trudeau.
Even past and present Liberal supporters told CBC News Trudeau should resign as leader if the party loses this one-time ruby red Liberal seat.”
Conservative Don Stewart 15,555 42.1 % (+16.8%)
Liberal Leslie Church 14,965 40.5 % (-8.7%)
I think at this point, yes, Trudeau does need to resign. He’s had a good run, but that has come to an end with results like this. Although there probably isn’t anyone else in the Canadian Liberals that can possibly turn this around.
Also Canada is another political system that probably could do well with preferential voting, and I believe it was on the agenda on his first term in 2015, but he dismissed it. That may be something the Canadian Liberals will come to regret, given I imagine most NDP and Green voters would prefer them over the Conservatives, but since they don’t have that option, it’s going to simply be a Conservative majority in 2025.
Oh dear the election betting scandal is getting worse.
Another Tory candidate revealed he’s under investigation. The two previous candidates have now been suspended by the party.
A Labour candidate had also been caught up in it and was immediately suspended.
(Because nominations have closed all 3 are still on the ballot paper so could be elected)
A handful of police officers are also being investigated likely connected to their colleague (who worked on Sunaks protection squad) who has already been suspended and arrested.
In polling news Reform has lost ground likely due to Farrages comments on Putin and some of his other candidates making vile comments.
(Please forgive my error in my last post – LOTR should have been LOTO as in Leader of the Opposition !)
If the conservatives are reduced to a rump of 100, they will have to change the leadership rules. Currently, only backbenchers can call for a leadership change. There is about 70 opposition front bench positions. So that would leave only a few handfuls of MPs who could be the ones to decide if there leadership contest.
The Canadian Tories won the federal by-election by 42.1-40.5 over the Liberals, reversing a 24-point Liberal win in this seat at the 2021 election. The last few booths were probably early voting booths with lots of votes. The Libs have held power in Canada since winning the 2015 election, but the next election, due by late 2025, isn’t looking good for them.
It’s interesting the Liberal vote didn’t tank as violently as I expected.
The Conservatives definitely were the recipients of a shedding more broadly, not just from the Liberals.
I can’t imagine the Liberals winning the next election, the vibe has been pretty toxic since about six months after the 2021 (early) election, and the Conservative leader is a pretty effective populist wrecking ball.
I don’t live there but it is pretty obvious the UK Tories have to go.
What I would say is they have FPTP (the political equivalent of sticking bodily extremities in a toaster) AND old codgers are enrolled at a rate of 2:1 to young people in the UK.
Labour will win, but possibly not by the predicted margins. The oldies believe in their system, are more motivated to vote and want to hang on to their birthrights. And then there is racism. (A double edged sword considering Sunak’s heritage).
For we psephology horndogs, the UK election will be riveting viewing. 1997 rides again.
In US primary news, Dem left-winger Bowman has been ousted from his seat by George Latimer, while Rep right-winger Lauren Boebert has won her primary easily. She won 43% in Colorado’s 4th, with five other Reps between 7% and 14%. Latimer defeated Bowman in NY’s 16th by 56-44
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/25/us/elections/results-colorado-us-house-4-primary.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/25/us/elections/results-new-york-us-house-16-primary.html
With 88% counted now in NY16, Latimer defeats Bowman by 58.4-41.6.
Thanks Adrian – I know Jamal Bowman was quite high profile, I think leader of one of the left-wing groupings?
But is George Latimer from his right or his left?
Shame about Lauren Boebert winning IMO (not that I know anything about her primary opponents).
UK / Reform Party
4 polls conducted 21-24 June, so at least half the polling period was after Farage’s interview broke where he said the West “poked the bear” with their eastward expansionism in NATO and EU, and its (accurate or otherwise) reporting.
2 show NC in their vote (that in itself is a change to the trend after a steady rise)
2 show drops of 1% and 3% respectively
Will be interesting to see how the next wave of polling looks, whether this is a blip or not.
UK Election
Conservatives still look absolutely doomed in latest round of polls.
The drip-drip of the betting scandal – so piffling in the big scheme of things affecting everyone’s lives but at the worst moment possible for the Tories – is doing them no favours.
Whether the fact that Labour are now mired in the scandal – headlines in The Times, Financial Times and Daily Telegraph today, though probably a much less big thing online – makes a difference I know.
Plenty of reasons to think this could be a low turnout election (unusual in a ‘change’ election), and / or that Lib Dem and Greens could benefit from the malaise affecting the other parties.
Reform should benefit from a low turnout election, due to their attractiveness to otherwise disengaged / disenfranchised (in their opinion) voters – though how many of them actually registered to vote in time I don’t know. They didn’t have as long as for the EU referendum!
Why the media think it’s relevant to muddy people’s perceptions further by so heavily reporting on the Scottish Minister’s perfectly legal betting (2 of the 3 he lost!) that have nothing to do with the scandal of betting based on insider knowledge, is baffling, although there is such a general strong anti-Conservative bias at the moment with no-one wanting to seem too overt in their support for them (bar 1 or 2 exceptions, and even they are being more positive in their coverage of Starmer/ Labour than ever before) that perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising although I don’t think it’s right.
The other question, politically, is why Alistair Jack bothered telling people he’d placed these bets. I haven’t looked into it, though I’d wager (pun intended) that he didn’t think it’d make such headlines.
The whole way the media operate stinks, whatever side of politics you are on. They have their agendas, and the truth is merely a tool that can be used if to their advantage.
I’m sure this is a global truth, not merely a UK one.
Reform (again)
One fallout I have observed from the Farage Russia reporting, is that there is suddenly much less reporting on Farage’s daily activities in general, whereas there had been plenty prior to that (much to the annoyance of smaller parties who don’t make such good clickbait as Farage).
This itself is sub-consciously (right word?) going to stop Reform’s rise, AND allow Farage’s comments to permeate longer and amplify the effect in the polls that the media can then all report on as solely attributable to said comments (ignoring that their absence of reporting on him is 1/2 the reason for their drop / stagnation in polling).
Latimer was supported by the Israel lobby in the primary, so he was definitely on Bowman’s right.
@Adrian
Thanks, so perhaps against the prevailing trend of being primaried from more extreme positions – perhaps due to the NY postcode?
”
BTSayssays:
Tuesday, June 25, 2024 at 9:11 pm
Toronto-St Paul
I spoke too soon – the Conservative won! – that will send ripples. . .
”
You bloody beauty….