We’re about due for polls from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review, which could perhaps be along this evening. The fortnightly Essential Research should also be along on Tuesday, and as always Roy Morgan will come through on Monday. Other than that, the dominating piece of electoral news at the moment is the publication of the proposed federal redistribution of New South Wales on Friday, for which you can see my estimated margins and party vote shares in the dedicated post, and read my analysis piece in Crikey if you’re a subscriber.
Semi-relatedly, it’s also been a big week for preselection news:
• Gavin Pearce, who has held the traditionally marginal seat of Braddon in north-western Tasmania for the Liberals since 2019, will not recontest the seat at the next election, saying his parliamentary career had “taken a toll” on his family life. A factional conservative ally of state party powerbroker Eric Abetz, Pearce earlier told colleagues he was holding back on nominating to force the party to block his arch-moderate colleague Bridget Archer in the neighbouring seat of Bass, who in the event was preselected unopposed. The party will have to reopen nominations in Braddon, for which the failure of Pearce or anyone else to nominate last week was the first indication of his impending retirement. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Latrobe deputy mayor Vonette Mead is “understood to be the most likely candidate to replace Mr Pearce”, while Burnie deputy mayor Giovanna Simpson “has also been touted but is said to be eyeing the state upper house seat of Montgomery”. Both were candidates in Braddon at the March state election, respectively polling 2.1% and 2.6% on a Liberal ticket dominated by Premier Jeremy Rockliff.
• Another retirement announcement last week was that of Maria Vamvakinou, who has held the safe Labor seat of Calwell in northern Melbourne since 2001. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Basem Abdo, a communications specialist born in Kuwait of Palestinian parents, has what seems decisive backing to succeed her from the Socialist Left faction.
• James Campbell of the Daily Telegraph reports former New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean is weighing up a preselection challenge against Bradfield MP Paul Fletcher, after the redistribution proposal made it likely the seat will be contested by teal independent member Kylea Tink, whose seat of North Sydney is to be abolished. The report quotes a Liberal source saying there would be “an argument among the moderates about who is best to hold that seat and a lot of them are going to say it is Matt Kean”. This would require reopening nominations for the seat, but Kean would likely have enough support to accomplish this.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports two candidates have nominated for Labor preselection in the northern Brisbane seat of Longman, which the party lost in 2019 and failed to win back in 2022: Rebecca Fanning, who has worked for Steven Miles, Wayne Swan and most recently state Mines Minister Scott Stewart, and Rhiannyn Douglas, a 27-year-old Left-aligned party organiser and former staffer to state Environment Minister Meaghan Scanlon.
• Claire Clutterham, Norwood Payneham and St Peters councillor and special counsel at LK Law, appears set to be the Labor candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, held for the Liberals by James Stevens on a margin of 0.5%, after a public endorsement from Anthony Albanese. InDaily reported last week that no other nominees were expected.
• Katina Curtis of The West Australian reports that Ian Goodenough, who has lost Liberal preselection for his northern Perth seat of Moore, says he is considering accepting an invitation from the Nationals to join the party, and has also raised the possibility of running as an independent. The Nationals have been pursuing designs on seats in Perth at the looming federal and state elections, and are “excited about the new seat of Bullwinkel”, a mixed urban-rural seat that encompasses traditionally Nationals-voting territory in the Avon Valley east of Perth.
• In her The Sauce column in the Sunday Telegraph, Linda Silmalis reports former state Nationals leader Paul Toole is a potential candidate for Calare, whose member Andrew Gee has been sitting as an independent since he quit the party in December 2022 over his support for the Indigenous Voice. Silmalis says there are also moves in the Liberal Party to persuade former state minister David Elliott to consider seeking preselection in Greenway, where the proposed boundaries reduce the Labor margin from 11.5% to 8.2% on my calculations. Elliott has often been mentioned in relation to the seat of Parramatta, where the party preselected local lawyer Katie Mullens after he declined to put his name forward.
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
#ResolvePM
ALP 28 L-NP 36 Green 14 ON 6 UAP 1 IND 11* others 4
My 2PP estimate 51.4 to ALP (+0.3)
* likely inflated cf what IND would get at election
A quick scan of the Resolve key issues tables puts the LNP well ahead on economic and financial management but also immigration, national security, cost of living although labour is ahead on climate and welfare and tied on aged care, health and wages.
I guess shouting empty slogans at issues Tony Abott style and making Trump like promises resonates with the resolve sample.
It also rewards Dutton with strong leader and ‘united team’ ratings points.I mean WTAF. Something does not smell right with all these numbers as everything is skewed to the LNP, just looks like it has been something odd in the sample or method that has oversampled a LNP cohort or the weighting is off.
It feels like labor shedding some primary to the greens but not really to the libs. Duttons base messaging bringing home some cookers. Bit like Dunkley from memory?
Albo’s becoming unpopular. And that is a problem. No doubt.
Badthinker @ #177 Sunday, June 16th, 2024 – 5:32 pm
Calwell
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 6:22 pm
Sorry Scott – Resolve has Labor primary in QLD at 24% and LNP at 40%.
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Thats the Lib/nats together in QLD
I meant nation wide , The lib/QLD Lib without national party
Curtin had a terrible squint. Roosevelt was shocked that someone with such a facial deformity could represent the country (this from a man who was paralysed) and offered to get him seen at the Mayo Clinic. Curtin declined.
Scott is beginning to revert to the state where he claims he doesn’t understand coalitions. A bad sign for Labor
Labor continues bleeding votes to its left… I wonder why.
What would the American’s made of Gorton OC? Facial deformities in a National Leader? Did they offer him treatment by Liberace’s plastic surgeon?
All going to shit now.
Expect to see We Told You It Wouldn’t be Easy Under Albanese on high rotation.
Actually I wouldn’t put it past the liberals giving the lemon with glasses another run.
Hard to believe.
Dr.Fumbles
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I can’t find the sample or the polling period either. As usual, Resolve keeps everything tucked away which irks me, but that is why we have WB and other posters to dig all this up. Resolve usually does a sample around the 1600 mark, which is a decent size. Newspoll, in comparison, does around 1250 electors.
Another thing, not involving you Dr, but some other poster on the site keeps posting that there will be an election on August 3rd.
Whoever it is – there will be no Federal election on August 3rd, certainly not with these sorts of primary numbers.
Thanks yabba, O.C.
A squint is disconcerting, but like a stutterer, they get your attention.
For Mundo:
There is freedom within
There is freedom without
Try to catch the deluge in a paper cup
There’s a battle ahead
Many battles are lost
But you’ll never see the end of the road
While you’re travelling with me
… Hey now, hey now
Don’t dream it’s over
Hey now, hey now
When the world comes in
They come, they come
To build a wall between us
We know they won’t win
Jim will fire-up.
Any day now.
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.
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.
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Dutton is toast.
Wish it was a dream Lars.
It’s over.
The ALP PV is evidently poor, but the PPM figures are in dire territory. I’m not sure what’s more likely – people actually preferring Dutton, or Albanese being so on the nose that *anyone* is preferred to him. Either way, extremely concerning for the Government.
nadia88
….
The earliest an election can be held is August 3.
Experts agree that Labor will be returned, even on 28%.
How about if they wait around for the S3/ minimum wage rise bounce and it doesn’t happen?
What then, Labor can’t be far away from Primary flatlining?
Labor on 51.5 2PP?
Dutton’s gone – unless he can hang on as LOTO for another four years. At least.
@Nadia88
The thing with resolve is how consistent it is skewed to the LNP across all the resonses. Now AIUI, resolved had a ALP bias up to relatively recently so, presumably they changed their method/sample/weighting and have, perhaps over corrected it.
Luckily there are more polls coming over the next week or so
My guestimate of Labor 2PP:
28+0+11.7+2.4+0.4+5.5+2 = 50.
Boerwar at 6:51 pm
Labor on 51.5 2PP?
Dutton’s gone – unless he can hang on as LOTO for another four years. At least.
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Delusional to think that Dutton’s gone on these figures. That sort of PPM result will put a spring in his step.
I should add the story about Curtin’s squint comes from Kylie Tennant’s hagiography of Evatt and therefore of doubtful provenance.
Taylormade says:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 5:18 pm
frednksays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 4:22 pm
Penny’s excellent performance in insiders is resulting in some column inches:
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The Guardian. woo-hoo.
Newscorp and Nine Entertaiment set the agenda frednk.
And the Newscorp minion proudly told us the Liberals would deliver more bullshit on bullshit. Yarn.
nadia88 @ #142 Sunday, June 16th, 2024 – 3:43 pm
Pot kettle black recently, nadia88 😐
Cost of living + high immigration+ housing situation ( renters particularly) = these polls.
Labor wants to keep applying bandaids to put off major surgery
Lordbain says:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 6:41 pm
Labor continues bleeding votes to its left… I wonder why.
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Tell the site why please?
You have a platform here, and I am the last person to criticize people for their opinions, so I would like to know pls why you think the Greens are eating into the Labor primary vote. I’m interested in your thoughts as you are a savvy poster. Also, your thoughts as to why Dutton is now PPM (for the first time). What is going on?
A key takeaway is the Coalition leading in the “better communication” factor; as noted by many here, Tingle and countless other journos, Dutton and the libs continue to set the agenda, with Labor reacting instead of being proactive. So no surprise on this result, and honestly doubt we will see Labor shift from their small target approach to counter it…
Nadia, short answer is that this is the death of the 2 party system, and because enough voters in Australia understand preference flows (in theory) they feel comfortable voting for a smaller party that either more closely aligns to their policy views/wish to shift the overton window to the left, rather then just keeping voting for Labor in the “broad church” approach (especially since Labor left wingers keep getting screwed over). It’s more complicated (demograhic changes etc) but Labor has really sropped the ball on messaging and policy (for the left)
Elec bills through the roof.Another factor.
Badthinkersays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 6:50 pm
nadia88
….
The earliest an election can be held is August 3.
======================
Badthinker – I know the pseph calculations as I used to post them fairly regularly.
Are you the poster who is predicting an Aug-3 election, because that isn’t going to happen.
nadia88 at 7:02 pm
I think the immigration issues of late (the criminal deportation stuff) are pinching a bit more than might be obvious. That doesn’t really explain the losses to the left, but I suspect Labor’s losing some skin on the Middle East and housing/broader cost of living matters that side (and without arguing the toss about rental issues largely being outside the scope of the Federal Government’s responsibilities, if people are annoyed or angry enough they’ll just take out their frustration on the incumbent as a default).
The election will be on May 2024.
Interest rates will have fallen.
Tax cuts will have had an impact.
Energy costs will be lower.
Dutton is looking at another four years as LOTO.
From the resolve results:
The first track in April 2021 and final track in May 2022 use a sample of n=2,000 Australians who will be of voting age at the next election, comprising n=400 random telephone (mobile and landline CATI) interviews and n=1,600 on-line interviews (from reputable panels employing off-line recruitment techniques and incentives), with a notional error margin of +/-2.2% (at the 95% confidence interval).
Other tracks typically employ an n=1,600 on-line sample (+/-2.5%), though their exact make-up may vary according to circumstances, e.g. frequency and sample size may change around election periods. In all cases, minimum quotas are set for age, sex, area and other demographic or lifestyle attributes, and data weighting is employed where required to ensure accurate representation of the population.
These samples include a minimum of n=500 interviews in each of NSW and Victoria (weighted to actual population proportions) to allow for bi-monthly samples of n=1,000+ on state-based political questions, such as vote and preferred Premier. All other breakdowns by geo-demographics and voting blocks are based on statistically significant sample sizes unless otherwise stated.
A core set of political questions is asked each month, including Federal and State voting intention (of registered voters only) using ranked preferences and leadership ratings. The voting questions use the ranked preferences of registered voters (only), with party names and options tailored to each region between elections, but honed to the actual parties and named candidates running in each seat and in ballot paper order when this is confirmed.
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So if I understand it the gist of it, it was a mixed method survey (400 CATI phone interviews at best) with a majority an online panel component (up to 1600) up to May 2022.
Since then is an online survey stratified by age, sex, area and other demographic or lifestyle attributes, whatever those are. So presumably done by some outfit like Surveyz.
nadia88 @ #201 Sunday, June 16th, 2024 – 6:27 pm
Paul Sakkal belled the cat on Insiders this morning. Anthony Albanese is too meek. People don’t appreciate milquetoast leaders right now. I’ve said this before. Albanese has to go back to fighting Tories so we can see the blood after he’s ripped into them. Also, his obvious policy of constraining the best attack dogs in the government so as to make the government look above the fray and just doing their jobs, is not paying off. They don’t have to get hysterical, but they do have to learn how to cut the Coalition off at the knees. It’s time to gird the loins and sally forth into battle.
Reynolds/Higgins Defamation Trial starts 23 july.
Possibility of any bad news for Labor out of that?
edit:
and Trial scheduled for 6 weeks livestream!
Boerwar @ #231 Sunday, June 16th, 2024 – 7:12 pm
May 2025.
The sense of arousal will be extinguished by week’s end as the remainder of the polling identifies their polling and the flicker of hope disappears.
Enough don’t want the LNP, Dutton, Joyce, the rearranging of the “deck chairs” together with their colourful fabrications and “conga line” of graft and dishonesty.
The end of the week will see more “deja vu” repeat jokes from an excited Lars.
nadia88 @ #142 Sunday, June 16th, 2024 – 3:43 pm
Gosh. I’ve been off the blog pretty much since the budget. Log on this arvo and people ripping into each other. Nothing changes.
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The Resolve 28% ALP PV will bring them out, just waiting for ALABAMA to enter then we have a full panel for PB After Dark tonight.
I’m inclined to put Resolve political monitor below Morgan in the believability stakes these days. It routinely favours the Coalition and doesn’t jump around.
When’s Albo getting hitched?
Women voter problem coming up if it’s not soon..
Among the wash up from the Irish local and European elections is the suggestion that the failure of the “woke” referendums reset the electoral temperature with a continuing swing to the right.
Has this some resonance with Australia?
Simon Yung the Liberal candidate for Bennelong has a problem. He has no connection to the electorate, being from Kogarah. Now there are those angling for Gisele Kapterian, who has been a failed candidate in the seat before.
On the topic of Labors weakening vote, there’s another Kohler clip on house prices that outlines the realities of “average” Australians trying to get into the house market. Given the fact that greens voters are primarily younger voters who don’t own property, maybe that’s a source of some kf that left leaning leakage of the Labor vote
C@tmomma at 7.13pm
Paul Sakkal belled the cat on Insiders this morning. Anthony Albanese is too meek. People don’t appreciate milquetoast leaders right now. I’ve said this before. Albanese has to go back to fighting Tories so we can the blood after he’s ripped into them. Also, his obvious policy of constraining the best attack dogs in the government so as to make the government look above the fray and just doing their jobs, is not paying off. They don’t have to get hysterical, but they do have to learn how to cut the Coalition off at the knees. It’s time to gird the loins and sally forth into battle.
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I think there’s something to this. Part of the Government’s meekness, to me, seems to be deliberate – the story of this Government has been about the adults being in charge, and that the Ministry is full of boring technocrats that you can trust to do their jobs after the weirdness of the Morrison years. The problem is, I think, that this approach also reflects that there isn’t much more of an overarching story to be told. This isn’t a radical, or even reformist, Government – its whole personality is steady as she goes. This all probably goes back to running such a small target strategy at the last election.
If these PPM numbers continue as a trend, I think it will be deeply troubling for the ALP. Because I don’t see how the Government – or perhaps more pointedly, Albanese personally – can plausibly flip the switch to vaudeville here. Because he’s not Albo the Tory fighter these days; he’s Albo the statesman, who is sober and reserved and … well, boring. That was how he needed to sell himself to get into Government; I don’t know how he can walk it back in the role of PM.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupidsays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 6:54 pm
@Nadia88
The thing with resolve is how consistent it is skewed to the LNP across all the resonses. Now AIUI, resolved had a ALP bias up to relatively recently so, presumably they changed their method/sample/weighting and have, perhaps over corrected it.
Luckily there are more polls coming over the next week or so
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Thanks Dr Fumbles, yes I know the polls which are upcoming – it’s my thing I suppose. I posted earlier this arvo at 3.08pm to watch out for forthcoming polls. I try to keep all over the polls and keep out of the other stuff on the site.
Labor hasn’t brought all it’s voters with them on it’s Ukraine and Gaza positions.
That’s why they’ve leaked to The Greens and Indies and not to the LNP.
That won’t stop, imo.
On the topic of “albo the fighter”… can we stop pretending a more aggressive albo/Labor party is going to fix the vote issue?
If you mean more aggressive policies that’s one thing, but more aggressive messaging means absolutely nothing for the government of the day; people are hurting, and they don’t want to see empty messages and platitudes, they want to see policy and action that helps relieve their pain.
The same does not apply for the opposition, because all you really need to do so resonate with voters is acknowledge there exists an issue, and then say you’ll fix it (even if you don’t have a policy proposal beyond trust us,)
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 7:20 pm
I’m inclined to put Resolve political monitor below Morgan in the believability stakes these days. It routinely favours the Coalition and doesn’t jump around.
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I tend to agree, if Resolve is relying on those self-selecting online surveys for results you lose control over the biases of your sample. Call me a luddite but i would never present data based solely collected on a self-selection as be population representative.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #247 Sunday, June 16th, 2024 – 7:37 pm
Even with the weightings etc.
All I can add to that is that I never answer my phone to anyone but my Contacts. If you really want to speak to me you can leave a Voicemail and I will call you back. As a result I haven’t been surveyed. I’m sure there are plenty like me.
Reading Mark Kenny’s analysis of what has happened to the Party of Menzies, the wealthy, of business…. The humiliation of 2022 is likely to be repeated.
So novel was the outcome that longstanding orthodoxies blinded some to the seismic nature of what had just occurred. Blue-ribbon Liberal redoubts reliably sending leaders to Canberra for generations (three Liberal PMs, two Liberal treasurers, and two foreign ministers) fell unceremoniously to centrist independent women who had campaigned loudly for climate action.
Greens broke through also. In all, a crossbench of 16 took its place in the House of Representatives. And it may yet swell further.
Labor’s narrow majority was only half of the story. Arithmetically, Dutton’s pathway back to a Coalition majority (from 55 seats currently to 76) had suddenly become supremely difficult.
To attempt it without assuaging the disaffections of traditional Liberal voters in the cities is brave.
To do so while actively taunting those ex-Liberal voters by re-energising the climate wars, is simply insulting.
Yet this is what Dutton has now locked his side into, and without consulting his party room.
The implications for Australia of this shift are colossal. A mainstream Liberal Party derived from the privileged mercantile classes of Victoria and NSW has, under Dutton’s concussive leadership, shifted its base and surrendered its sensibilities to populist Queensland – a state where the party is not even separated from the Nationals.
It was the Nationals, remember, who decided in November of 2022 to scupper the Voice, effectively compelling the Liberals to follow. And it is the Nationals now, via ex-leader Barnaby Joyce, calling for the complete withdrawal from net-zero by 2050.
Under Dutton’s aggressive right-wing leadership, the Liberal Party is becoming the Nationals.
As a response to its historic rout of 2022, this is beyond perverse.
Is it risky? You bet. If it fails, it won’t just be Dutton who is finished, but the Liberal Party, too.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8663607/peter-dutton-lends-his-voice-to-divisive-election-strategy/?cs=14258
Pretty right I think, Lordbain. Albanese suddenly coming out with fangs on display and ripping into Dutton is going to look hollow, where his persona is now (understandably) about being the statesman who’s above the day to day politicking. But without an obvious offsider attack dog, it kinda cedes that territory to Dutton, who can just stand and point and yell.