We’re about due for polls from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review, which could perhaps be along this evening. The fortnightly Essential Research should also be along on Tuesday, and as always Roy Morgan will come through on Monday. Other than that, the dominating piece of electoral news at the moment is the publication of the proposed federal redistribution of New South Wales on Friday, for which you can see my estimated margins and party vote shares in the dedicated post, and read my analysis piece in Crikey if you’re a subscriber.
Semi-relatedly, it’s also been a big week for preselection news:
• Gavin Pearce, who has held the traditionally marginal seat of Braddon in north-western Tasmania for the Liberals since 2019, will not recontest the seat at the next election, saying his parliamentary career had “taken a toll” on his family life. A factional conservative ally of state party powerbroker Eric Abetz, Pearce earlier told colleagues he was holding back on nominating to force the party to block his arch-moderate colleague Bridget Archer in the neighbouring seat of Bass, who in the event was preselected unopposed. The party will have to reopen nominations in Braddon, for which the failure of Pearce or anyone else to nominate last week was the first indication of his impending retirement. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Latrobe deputy mayor Vonette Mead is “understood to be the most likely candidate to replace Mr Pearce”, while Burnie deputy mayor Giovanna Simpson “has also been touted but is said to be eyeing the state upper house seat of Montgomery”. Both were candidates in Braddon at the March state election, respectively polling 2.1% and 2.6% on a Liberal ticket dominated by Premier Jeremy Rockliff.
• Another retirement announcement last week was that of Maria Vamvakinou, who has held the safe Labor seat of Calwell in northern Melbourne since 2001. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Basem Abdo, a communications specialist born in Kuwait of Palestinian parents, has what seems decisive backing to succeed her from the Socialist Left faction.
• James Campbell of the Daily Telegraph reports former New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean is weighing up a preselection challenge against Bradfield MP Paul Fletcher, after the redistribution proposal made it likely the seat will be contested by teal independent member Kylea Tink, whose seat of North Sydney is to be abolished. The report quotes a Liberal source saying there would be “an argument among the moderates about who is best to hold that seat and a lot of them are going to say it is Matt Kean”. This would require reopening nominations for the seat, but Kean would likely have enough support to accomplish this.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports two candidates have nominated for Labor preselection in the northern Brisbane seat of Longman, which the party lost in 2019 and failed to win back in 2022: Rebecca Fanning, who has worked for Steven Miles, Wayne Swan and most recently state Mines Minister Scott Stewart, and Rhiannyn Douglas, a 27-year-old Left-aligned party organiser and former staffer to state Environment Minister Meaghan Scanlon.
• Claire Clutterham, Norwood Payneham and St Peters councillor and special counsel at LK Law, appears set to be the Labor candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, held for the Liberals by James Stevens on a margin of 0.5%, after a public endorsement from Anthony Albanese. InDaily reported last week that no other nominees were expected.
• Katina Curtis of The West Australian reports that Ian Goodenough, who has lost Liberal preselection for his northern Perth seat of Moore, says he is considering accepting an invitation from the Nationals to join the party, and has also raised the possibility of running as an independent. The Nationals have been pursuing designs on seats in Perth at the looming federal and state elections, and are “excited about the new seat of Bullwinkel”, a mixed urban-rural seat that encompasses traditionally Nationals-voting territory in the Avon Valley east of Perth.
• In her The Sauce column in the Sunday Telegraph, Linda Silmalis reports former state Nationals leader Paul Toole is a potential candidate for Calare, whose member Andrew Gee has been sitting as an independent since he quit the party in December 2022 over his support for the Indigenous Voice. Silmalis says there are also moves in the Liberal Party to persuade former state minister David Elliott to consider seeking preselection in Greenway, where the proposed boundaries reduce the Labor margin from 11.5% to 8.2% on my calculations. Elliott has often been mentioned in relation to the seat of Parramatta, where the party preselected local lawyer Katie Mullens after he declined to put his name forward.
Modi clearly has disturbing issues with political challengers and adversaries.
India have a had some weird PMs.
There was the bloke who drank a glass of urine first thing, ate a handful of dates the rest of the day.
That’s taking vegetarianism to an extreme which left Hitler in the shade.
On Hitler, he liked dogs, which puts him on the same page as Trump, who signed more dog friendly legislation than any previous Prez, according to someone on Unz Review.
Modi’s coal burning ambitions are similar to those of Dutton.
Apparently Bennelong becoming notionally Liberal (Dutton withstanding) – is causing selfish ructions amongst prospective pollies.
The preselected Chinese heritage candidate is about to be ‘boned’
Spr
Chinese candidate belonging to which Party?
Penny’s excellent performance in insiders is resulting in some column inches:
Remember when the Liberals thought it was a good idea to close down radio Australia. The news service the pacific islanders depended on.
Penny Wong is right. The Liberals threw it all away.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/16/twists-and-turns-in-australia-china-ties-are-over-li-qiang-says-but-penny-wong-highlights-tensions
Ven
I am not anti-Indian in any way; I have several engineering colleagues I regard as friends who are Indian-Australians. But, whilst I would not describe Modi as fascist, Nazi or a Hitler supporter, I do think he uses some of the tactics of autocrats.
There are some Australians who have an anti-Indian prejudice, just as there are some with an anti-Chinese prejudice. There are some here like that too. Despite that, I hope you stay on PB.
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 4:17 pm
Spr
Chinese candidate belonging to which Party?
================================================
My understanding is the sitting Labor MP and the current pre-selected Liberal candidate both have Chinese heritage.
RP says Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 2:46 pm
I once won a bottle of Grange as a door prize at a business breakfast put on by a supplier. Unfortunately, its value was well in excess of what my employer would allow. So, I ended up donating it to a charity auction my employer was running.
I have a feeling it would have been wasted on my anyway.
At the time I was chatting to one of our in house lawyers about it. When a student she had worked at a rather upmarket restaurant. One customer had ordered a bottle of Grange, but didn’t like it and so left the rest in the bottle. So her and some other staff finished it for him.
The Liberals, oh the level of incompetence.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-22/china-takes-over-radio-australias-old-shortwave-frequencies/9898754
sounded too good to be true – the perfect candidate to restore Chinese diaspora faith in the Liberal Party has one flaw.
See if you can pick it..
Boundary changes, which will likely make the Sydney seat of Bennelong more winnable by the Liberal Party, have triggered a push to replace the party’s existing candidate, 32-year-old Scott Yung.
A party source said Hunters Hill mayor Zac Miles has begun lobbying factional leaders to support them in Bennelong. Gisele Kapterian, the Liberal candidate for North Sydney, which is likely to be abolished, also considered running for the seat, but changed her mind over the weekend, according to another source.
Mr Yung, the owner of a tutoring business, was chosen as the Liberal candidate last year after the other contenders dropped out. The multilingual son of parents from Shanghai and Hong Kong, he has presented himself as best placed to win over the seat’s large Chinese community.
“
Peter Dutton wanted early preselections and I am one of them,” Mr Yung said on Saturday. “I am proud to be part of a national plan to win back Chinese-background voters. I haven’t just been doing it in Bennelong. I have been doing more broadly for the party for the last few months.”
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/push-to-dump-liberal-s-chinese-candidate-in-bennelong-20240615-p5jm0l#:~:text=Boundary%20changes%2C%20which%20will%20likely,to%20support%20them%20in%20Bennelong.
Ven would probably recall various of my posts noting the serial oppression of muslims by Modi. Modi is just another rancid populist who astroturfs ethnic communal tensions to gain political power.
The political company Modi keeps is Sunak, Meloni, Le Pen, Orban, Wilders and Dutton.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-draft-boundaries-have-not-put-labor.html
The Draft Boundaries Have Not Put Labor On The Edge Of Minority
my analysis of the redistribution
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 4:25 pm
sounded too good to be true – the perfect candidate to restore Chinese diaspora faith in the Liberal Party has one flaw.
See if you can pick it..’
—————
From a Duttonite perspective… let’s see… ‘he’ is not a ‘she’?
Ven
“ Will we see an upset in NM vs Magpies?”
It would have been more remarkable to see the umpires award a free kick against Collingwood in the closing stages of a close game.
As it turns out, we saw neither of those things today. Bad luck NM. Robbed.
What will Liberal ‘heavyweight’ Don Harwin decide – the Chinese heritage pre-selected candidate?
Or the WASP Hunters Hill mayor? Or the high flying Salesforce female, who like GladysB is of Armenian descent?
Our very own Mr Bowe gets cited by the AFR…
The Liberal Party would have won the seat on the new boundaries by 0.1 or 0.2 of a per cent at the past election, according to elections analysts Ben Raue and William Bowe. Labor candidate Jerome Laxale won in 2022 by 1 per cent.
The draft boundaries also extend Bennelong to Hunters Hill, a wealthy waterfront suburb. Mr Miles, the local mayor, has approached party members seeking their support to run, party sources said.
So too has Ms Kapterian, a former political adviser from an Armenian family, sources said. The boundary changes leave her with no obvious seat.
Large sections of North Sydney are slated to be transferred to Warringah, where incumbent independent Zali Steggall’s margin is around 10 per cent. Ms Kapterian’s home suburb of Willoughby has been transferred to Bradfield, which is held by Paul Fletcher, the Coalition spokesman for science and the arts.
NSW party president Don Harwin didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday. The decision about whether to re-open the selection process will fall to the party’s state executive, which Mr Harwin chairs.
frednk says Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 4:22 pm
Most of the modern right aren’t conservative. They’re primarily interested in the pursuit of power, identity and the culture wars (which are tied up with identity). One might argue that there’s nothing very modern about this, it’s consistent with the right in the thirties. They’re prepared to betray the long term future of the country in their pursuit of these interests. It’s not about what might be the best policy for the country, it’s about purity and punishing perceived enemies.
They’re climate change deniers because they identify climate change as being a left wing or progressive issue. They defund the ABC, and hence services like Radio Australia, because they see it as their enemy in the ongoing culture war. The fact that these cuts harm Australia’s interests in the long term doesn’t matter to them.
The Pacific?
Morrison/Dutton/Payne/Seselja have a lot to answer for.
“Vensays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 2:29 pm
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 2:00 pm
Aus v India in quarter final round of T20
”
Incorrect. It is India vs New Afghanistan in QF.”
Both partially right, they are not quarter finals, but a round of 8 (two groups of four teams) with Australia to play India and Afghanistan and (probably) Bangladesh in their group. USA, England, South Africa, West Indies to play against each other in the other group. Top two from each group go through to semi finals.
A decision to build two additional nuclear power stations in Zeeland, a Netherland’s province (after which New Zealand was named) has received the sort of enthusiasm that one would expect from the nearby village.
The usual NIMBY points were being made.
Wilders has promised to double that by building two more.
Still, were I a Netherlander responsible for zero net fifty I would probably be ordering a couple of nuclear power plants.
‘Kevin Bonham says:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 4:29 pm
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-draft-boundaries-have-not-put-labor.html
The Draft Boundaries Have Not Put Labor On The Edge Of Minority
my analysis of the redistribution’
——————
Thank you. I rather hope for six of one and a half dozen of the other in these things. I do have a strong faith in the institution.
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 4:58 pm
A decision to build two additional nuclear power stations in Zeeland, a Netherland’s province (after which New Zealand was named) has received the sort of enthusiasm that one would expect from the nearby village.
The usual NIMBY points were being made.
Wilders has promised to double that by building two more.
Still, were I a Netherlander responsible for zero net fifty I would probably be ordering a couple of nuclear power plants.
==================================================
If the Netherlands had anywhere near our land area. I think they might have reached net zero with their wind turbines alone. They seem to have them everywhere.
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 2:32 pm
The Israeli military on Sunday announced a “tactical pause” in its offensive in the southern Gaza Strip to allow the deliveries of increased quantities of humanitarian aid.
The army said the pause would begin in the Rafah area at 8 a.m. (0500 GMT, 1 a.m. eastern) and remain in effect until 7 p.m. (1600 GMT, noon eastern). It said the pauses would take place every day until further notice.
…’
——————–
Thanks. As always with Hamas/Israel the question is what this really means.
Entropy
From Dr Google.
‘The top five energy sources in the Netherlands were as follows: natural gas (40%), wind (18%), solar (15%), coal (14%), and biomass (7%).’
Not a lot of hydro!
Over fifty per cent fossil fuels. The gasfields are depleting. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea has highlighted the vulnerabilities involved in relying on imported gas. In terms of politics, and not surprisingly given the history and importance of wind energy in Dutch economic history, wind turbines are largely normalized.
frednksays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 4:22 pm
Penny’s excellent performance in insiders is resulting in some column inches:
_____________________
The Guardian. woo-hoo.
Newscorp and Nine Entertaiment set the agenda frednk.
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 5:10 pm
Entropy
From Dr Google.
‘The top five energy sources in the Netherlands were as follows: natural gas (40%), wind (18%), solar (15%), coal (14%), and biomass (7%).’
Not a lot of hydro!
Over fifty per cent fossil fuels. The gasfields are depleting. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea has highlighted the vulnerabilities involved in relying on imported gas. In terms of politics, and not surprisingly given the history and importance of wind energy in Dutch economic history, wind turbines are largely normalized.
===================================================
As you suggest, mainly due to their relatively small land area. Nuclear is probably there only option to reach net zero. Though i assume there is an electricity grid system across countries in Europe? So maybe they’ll have to import clean electricity from elsewhere also?
The Liberal candidate for Bennelong has a squint?
Has there ever been an MHR with a squint?
Wong v Payne/Seselja.
Class versus Pass.
nadia88says:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:43 pm
Gosh. I’ve been off the blog pretty much since the budget. Log on this arvo and people ripping into each other. Nothing changes
Welcome to the internet!
https://youtu.be/k1BneeJTDcU?si=yEGyhTpoKSs7fFj1
Resolve poll site updated, no article online yet.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
ALP 28 (-1)
L/NP 36 (0)
GRN 14 (+2)
ONP 6 (-1)
UAP 1 (-1)
IND 11 (-1)
OTH 4 (+2)
Gosh, ALP down another notch & Greens up.
This is getting frightful. No budget bounce being detected. Couple of weeks for S3 so pause perhaps required.
My quick 2PP on these figures is 50-50.
Steve or WB – can you compute correctly pls
Thanks Leroy too.
Federal Lib/nats combined primary vote is super glued to 36%
Thanks Leroy. My estimate of TPP: ALP 50.7 (+0.5), L-NP 49.3 (-0.5).
There is now an article
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-edges-ahead-as-voters-thump-labor-on-economy-20240614-p5jlwf.html
Can you form majority govt with a 28% or lower primary vote?
You would have to think there will be more seats which don’t end up with a traditional two party Labor/Liberal count.
Still more likely the 2025 federal election will end either of these results
Labor heading for increased majority of 80+ seats
Labor retains similar Majority of 77+ seats
Lib/nats 52 + seats
Lib/nats 49+ seats
That Green vote just keeps creeping up. It’s like the tide.
Why are voters drawn to them? Bandt has been off his trolley this past week and the nonsense about the housing issue late last year with Max Chandler Mather was completely off the tree. Do people not know that the Feds can’t control Rents and prices – there was a referendum 70 odd years ago about this and it was soundly defeated. Max Chandler Mather demanding two year rental freezes, and he knows full well the Federal Parliament (ie> Mr Albanese/ALP) can’t interfere. It’s a state issue.
I accept the Greens are gaining traction, but what is drawing voters to the Greens?
Here’s the SMH article on the Resolve Poll: https://apple.news/Al6X0Mw_aSXe_hCsFFWhpKA
Nadia88 the two party system ist kaput. What we have coming federally is not unlike NSW – minority govt with a dominant party at any given time is about where it lands.
My unwavering feeling
is option – Labor 2nd term increased Majority of 80+ seats and Lib/nats will get 49+ seats
PPM Dutton 36 Albo 35
You don’t see that very often
Las Von Trier
What you are ignoring is the Lib including QLDLib partys primary votes is around 26% , which helps Labor
I am feeling deja vu all over again OC.
Sorry Scott – Resolve has Labor primary in QLD at 24% and LNP at 40%.
If the economy continues as is labor’s fucked.
The reasons don’t matter.
All the usual tropes about labor and the econmoy no matter how spurious will kick in and potato head will be Kirribilli bound.
Think it can’t happen?
Anyway, that’s not true about Shaw. According to his biographer Holroyd, M. (4 vols) cited in wikipedia:-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Bernard_Shaw
So Dutton now preferred PM. Labor had better get rid of Albanese asap.
Looking at the resolve poll ,
it doesnt look good for the Lib/nats as they are not even picking up one nation or united palmer party 2% total they went to the others
Labor and independent likely went to the greens
Lars – 28% primary is frightful. No window dressing about that sort of number. It’s frightful and heading down to “Julia Gillard territory”
I see on top of that, that Dutton is now the Preferred PM. What is going on? Scroll down the Age/SMH website.
What next – will the newspapers start doing Preferred PM ratings between Dutton and Bandt.
I was surprised the LNP pulled 39% on Newspoll last week. Perhaps that was an outlier poll although Freshwater had a similar figure a 4 weeks ago. We should have a Freshwater poll in about 12 hours.
No one is winning elections with a 28% primary. We both know this. So what is driving the ALP vote down. Is it Gaza (no one in Australia can sort out Gaza), is it cost of living (well rebates will flow through soon), is it rents (good grief, there is nothing the Federal Parliament can do about the rents being charged, everyone knows this). So what is it? The price of banana’s?