We’re about due for polls from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review, which could perhaps be along this evening. The fortnightly Essential Research should also be along on Tuesday, and as always Roy Morgan will come through on Monday. Other than that, the dominating piece of electoral news at the moment is the publication of the proposed federal redistribution of New South Wales on Friday, for which you can see my estimated margins and party vote shares in the dedicated post, and read my analysis piece in Crikey if you’re a subscriber.
Semi-relatedly, it’s also been a big week for preselection news:
• Gavin Pearce, who has held the traditionally marginal seat of Braddon in north-western Tasmania for the Liberals since 2019, will not recontest the seat at the next election, saying his parliamentary career had “taken a toll” on his family life. A factional conservative ally of state party powerbroker Eric Abetz, Pearce earlier told colleagues he was holding back on nominating to force the party to block his arch-moderate colleague Bridget Archer in the neighbouring seat of Bass, who in the event was preselected unopposed. The party will have to reopen nominations in Braddon, for which the failure of Pearce or anyone else to nominate last week was the first indication of his impending retirement. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Latrobe deputy mayor Vonette Mead is “understood to be the most likely candidate to replace Mr Pearce”, while Burnie deputy mayor Giovanna Simpson “has also been touted but is said to be eyeing the state upper house seat of Montgomery”. Both were candidates in Braddon at the March state election, respectively polling 2.1% and 2.6% on a Liberal ticket dominated by Premier Jeremy Rockliff.
• Another retirement announcement last week was that of Maria Vamvakinou, who has held the safe Labor seat of Calwell in northern Melbourne since 2001. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Basem Abdo, a communications specialist born in Kuwait of Palestinian parents, has what seems decisive backing to succeed her from the Socialist Left faction.
• James Campbell of the Daily Telegraph reports former New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean is weighing up a preselection challenge against Bradfield MP Paul Fletcher, after the redistribution proposal made it likely the seat will be contested by teal independent member Kylea Tink, whose seat of North Sydney is to be abolished. The report quotes a Liberal source saying there would be “an argument among the moderates about who is best to hold that seat and a lot of them are going to say it is Matt Kean”. This would require reopening nominations for the seat, but Kean would likely have enough support to accomplish this.
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports two candidates have nominated for Labor preselection in the northern Brisbane seat of Longman, which the party lost in 2019 and failed to win back in 2022: Rebecca Fanning, who has worked for Steven Miles, Wayne Swan and most recently state Mines Minister Scott Stewart, and Rhiannyn Douglas, a 27-year-old Left-aligned party organiser and former staffer to state Environment Minister Meaghan Scanlon.
• Claire Clutterham, Norwood Payneham and St Peters councillor and special counsel at LK Law, appears set to be the Labor candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, held for the Liberals by James Stevens on a margin of 0.5%, after a public endorsement from Anthony Albanese. InDaily reported last week that no other nominees were expected.
• Katina Curtis of The West Australian reports that Ian Goodenough, who has lost Liberal preselection for his northern Perth seat of Moore, says he is considering accepting an invitation from the Nationals to join the party, and has also raised the possibility of running as an independent. The Nationals have been pursuing designs on seats in Perth at the looming federal and state elections, and are “excited about the new seat of Bullwinkel”, a mixed urban-rural seat that encompasses traditionally Nationals-voting territory in the Avon Valley east of Perth.
• In her The Sauce column in the Sunday Telegraph, Linda Silmalis reports former state Nationals leader Paul Toole is a potential candidate for Calare, whose member Andrew Gee has been sitting as an independent since he quit the party in December 2022 over his support for the Indigenous Voice. Silmalis says there are also moves in the Liberal Party to persuade former state minister David Elliott to consider seeking preselection in Greenway, where the proposed boundaries reduce the Labor margin from 11.5% to 8.2% on my calculations. Elliott has often been mentioned in relation to the seat of Parramatta, where the party preselected local lawyer Katie Mullens after he declined to put his name forward.
Irony of ironies.
I went into the city last night, the final night of Vivid to see the drone show. The evening wasn’t wet, and wasn’t windy (or at least it wasn’t on the ground), therefore we all thought that unlike the night before, the show would proceed.
The drone show ended up being cancelled at the last minute leaving many frustrated patrons who had planned their night out, like me.
Anyways, today the weather is beautiful clear skies and a clear night forecast. Such is life.
Aus v India in quarter final round of T20
Rossmcg, one swans fan had had enough of the crows rabble. Heeney made a nice play and the bloke got up and very loudly declared ‘my Heeney is sooooo clean!’ Hilarious. Nobody laughed. One idiot said ‘he’s a cheat!’.
Boorish.
It makes the gather round far more entertaining. More footy fans and less idiot wool dyed fans.
Gavin Pierce, what a piece of work to deliberately use tactics in regards to his retirement to harm an internal party adversary.
Also, why do the Libs try to recycle people like Andrew Constance and David Elliot, both were poor MPs and Ministers.
Is that what happened, or did Dutts tell him to pack his bags and head off?
____________________
On Constance, he got a swing in a year where L-NP lost 675,000 votes on 2019, if 187 had gone the other way, he’s be the member today.
Indeed.
But we know Labor are utterly corrupted by the fossil fuel industry.
But we know Labor are utterly corrupted by the fossil fuel industry.
———————————
So are Liv supporters.
The offshore wind farm off Illawarra is a good thing.
Just wish that Labor hadn’t capitulated to the Qarens and the cookers on the east coast worried about their balcony views.
Lol
I love golf and I vote for clean energy. I’m the devil !
Well done Labor.
Illawarra off shore wind farm!
Bowen on the job – first ever Federal climate minister to deliver.
Labor acts on climate and will deliver 42/30.
Dictator Dutton does dumb shit like saying he will set an emissions target AFTER the next election. Not only is this bad climate action, it is incredibly stupid economic action. It will frighten off the investors. And how can Dutton possibly cost his promises in all industrial areas if he can’t put his emissions target on the table?
TK
My sister in law has two WC tickets and since my brother died she has occasionally invited me along to a game.
It’s an educational experience.
All clubs have ugly fans but at least in Melbourne there’s likely to a balance.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 2:00 pm
Aus v India in quarter final round of T20
”
Incorrect. It is India vs New Afghanistan in QF.
Entropy @ #92 Sunday, June 16th, 2024 – 1:30 pm
Do you expect Rex Douglas to be anything other than misleading? 😐
The Israeli military on Sunday announced a “tactical pause” in its offensive in the southern Gaza Strip to allow the deliveries of increased quantities of humanitarian aid.
The army said the pause would begin in the Rafah area at 8 a.m. (0500 GMT, 1 a.m. eastern) and remain in effect until 7 p.m. (1600 GMT, noon eastern). It said the pauses would take place every day until further notice.
The pause is aimed at allowing aid trucks to reach the nearby Israel-controlled Kerem Shalom crossing, the main entry point for incoming aid, and travel safely to the Salah a-Din highway, a main north-south road, to deliver supplies to other parts of Gaza, the military said. It said the pause was being coordinated with the U.N. and international aid agencies. The crossing has suffered from a bottleneck since Israeli ground troops moved into Rafah in early May.
Israel’s eight-month military offensive against the Hamas militant group has plunged Gaza into a humanitarian crisis, with the U.N. reporting widespread hunger and hundreds of thousands of people on the brink of famine. The international community has urged Israel to do more to ease the crunch.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-06-16/israeli-military-announces-tactical-pause-in-attempt-to-increase-flow-of-aid-into-hard-hit-gaza
Ross
Yes a heavily partisan crowd at the footy is a fun thing when the team is going well, but when it isn’t it’s a feral environment.
A bit like bludger I suppose…
Good to see that the adults in the Labor Government have managed to repair the relationship with China wrecked by the Morrison/Dutton Government’s cack-handed and contemptuous attitude to our largest trading partner.
Morrison/Dutton cost $20 billion in a trade a year.
Well done Prime Minister Albanese and Foreign Affairs Minister Wong and Trade Minister Farrell.
Badthinkersays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 2:11 pm
Is that what happened, or did Dutts tell him to pack his bags and head off?
____________________
On Constance, he got a swing in a year where L-NP lost 675,000 votes on 2019, if 187 had gone the other way, he’s be the member today.
==================================================
Probably reflects more how bad Morrison’s Captain’s pick that he parachuted in was in 2019. Then anything positive about Constance though.
Though i like it how you still spin it, so it appears the win was closer than it was by saying “if 187 had gone the other way”. When the standard way to express this is she won by 373 votes.
Hastie is STILL trying to wreck the relationship.
Dictator Dutton ought to pull him into line.
But Dutton talks tough, acts slack.
good comment Rex and reflecting on an earlier comment by meher to me, it really is the mood or environment.
More pub argument with a couple of beers after the game than learned uni tutorial. Many claim to want the uni tutorial but secretly love the pub fight with optional glassing thrown in.
Simon Katich
My sister opened a 30+ yo Grange for my birthday last year. I’d bought it for her in the early 90’s with a dole cheque. In those days you could get 5 bottles of Grange with a dole cheque, these day’s you wouldn’t get one.
Labor have done very well repairing the terribly damaged relationship with China caused by the EXTREME L/NP.
On the other hand Labor have been terribly weak in dealing with Netanyahu given the famine and genocide occuring in Gaza.
RPsays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 2:46 pm
Simon Katich
My sister opened a 30+ yo Grange for my birthday last year. I’d bought it for her in the early 90’s with a dole cheque. In those days you could get 5 bottles of Grange with a dole cheque, these day’s you wouldn’t get one.
==================================================
Barry O’Farrell certainly paid a lot for his bottle of it.
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 2:47 pm
Labor have done very well repairing the terribly damaged relationship with China caused by the EXTREME L/NP.
On the other hand Labor have been terribly weak in dealing with Netanyahu given the famine and genocide occuring in Gaza.
======================================================
While i believe what is occurring in Gaza is terrible. What do you actually believe Labor could have done that would have made one iota of difference to it ?
Will we see an upset in NM vs Magpies?
Entropy
I’d liked to have seen all direct and indirect trade with the Netanyahu Govt ceased and support for the Sth Africa legal action.
Chinese voters got it. The Morrison/Dutton Government was sinophobic in the extreme.
Dutton is trying to lie low on it but Hastie is buggering it up for him.
Albanese gets it. Wong gets it. Farrell gets it.
Dutton? D’oh!
Just because someone is a famous author like Arun***ti Roy does not mean they cannot be dangerous
For example, George Bernard Shaw was a hardcore supporter of Hitler and Nazi race theories.
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 2:58 pm
Entropy
I’d liked to have seen all direct and indirect trade with the Netanyahu Govt ceased and support for the Sth Africa legal action.
===================================================
Do you believe either would make any difference to the “famine and genocide occuring in Gaza” as you stated in your earlier post though. Australia does support the legal determinations of the ICJ and ICC. It also supports the right of member countries, such as South Africa, to take action there.
Trump, Farage, Dutton, Wilders, Netanyahu, Orban, Milei, Meloni, Sunak, Le Pen…
… what a lovely bunch of right wing ratbags.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/15/trump-white-house-leaker-execution
As WB mentioned, we should have a busy week of polls.
These will be the final few polls before S3 kicks in.
* Resolve Poll – due in about 3 hours. Their last poll had the ALP < 30%
Link if anyone wishes to monitor
https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
Resolve doesn't provide a 2PP conversion, but I think the PB consensus runs like this…
ALP Primary + 86% (Greens) + 35% (PHON) + 50% (Others & Indies)
If the poll provides a UAP primary (not many do these days), then I include that figure with ONP.
* Freshwater Strategy. Should be with us first thing tomorrow morning via the A.F.R., maybe even late tonight. Their last poll had the LNP on 40%, Labor 32% & Greens on 14%.
* Roy Morgan – Monday arvo around 5PM. Quite a high Greens vote last poll from Morgan too, although it does bounce around.
* Essential Report – Tues AM, via the Guardian newspaper
* Redbridge Group – Monday week (ie 24-June)
Apart from another two Morgan's and a Newspoll & YouGov each before 30-Jun, that should be just about it for polling before the S3 cuts take effect.
‘Ven says:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:03 pm
Just because someone is a famous author like Arun***ti Roy does not mean they cannot be dangerous
For example, George Bernard Shaw was a hardcore supporter of Hitler and Nazi race theories.’
—————————
The parallel you are looking for is that Modi is starting to treat journalists like Hitler treated journalists.
Interesting discussion on the threat from unregulated AI
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1801976488251814048
“Smarter than us”!
Watch out PB posters.
Vensays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:03 pm
Just because someone is a famous author like Arun***ti Roy does not mean they cannot be dangerous
For example, George Bernard Shaw was a hardcore supporter of Hitler and Nazi race theories.
=====================================================
Have you got any evidence that Arun***ti Roy has such beliefs? As i don’t believe someone should be arrested based on what beliefs George Bernard Shaw may or may not have had unless it is George Bernard Shaw.
AP
GOP women who helped defeat abortion ban are losing reelection in South Carolina
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/15/2246441/-GOP-women-who-helped-defeat-abortion-ban-are-losing-reelection-in-South-Carolina?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_6&pm_medium=web
“A near-total abortion ban was defeated in South Carolina with the help of the only three Republican women in the Senate, but after Tuesday’s primary, they’re losing their election bids.
Voters handed the senators—and winners of the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage award for people who risk their careers for the greater good—two losses and a runoff after they joined with Democratic women to defeat the measure, saying a pregnant woman shouldn’t lose control of her body as soon as an egg is fertilized.
But the state had only men in the Senate in 2012 and may end up without a single Republican woman in the chamber in 2025. There are just two Democratic women among the 46 members.
“You can’t tell me that’s not a slap in the face of women,” said Sen. Katrina Shealy who is gearing up for a runoff. “Republican women lose like this over one issue when we fought so hard for other things.””
”
Entropysays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:11 pm
Vensays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:03 pm
Just because someone is a famous author like Arun***ti Roy does not mean they cannot be dangerous
For example, George Bernard Shaw was a hardcore supporter of Hitler and Nazi race theories.
=====================================================
Have you got any evidence that Arun***ti Roy has such beliefs? As i don’t believe someone should be arrested based on what beliefs George Bernard Shaw may or may not have had unless it is George Bernard Shaw.
”
Arundati Roy is supporter of Marxist-Leninists (a Communist faction, which wants to come to power through violence and killing of innocent people)
Vensays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:19 pm
”
Entropysays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:11 pm
Vensays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:03 pm
Just because someone is a famous author like Arun***ti Roy does not mean they cannot be dangerous
For example, George Bernard Shaw was a hardcore supporter of Hitler and Nazi race theories.
=====================================================
Have you got any evidence that Arun***ti Roy has such beliefs? As i don’t believe someone should be arrested based on what beliefs George Bernard Shaw may or may not have had unless it is George Bernard Shaw.
”
Arundati Roy is supporter of Marxist-Leninists (a Communist faction, which wants to come to power through violence and killing of innocent people)
========================================================
Again, have you any evidence of this? From independent credible sources and not Hindu Nationalist propaganda.
Though from what i saw of India’s election it was BJP doing all the violent voter intimidation. Though there was chance they wouldn’t even have won if they didn’t. Which makes the legitimacy of their election win very questionable.
‘Ven says:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:14 pm
AP
GOP women who helped defeat abortion ban are losing reelection in South Carolina
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/15/2246441/-GOP-women-who-helped-defeat-abortion-ban-are-losing-reelection-in-South-Carolina?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_6&pm_medium=web
“A near-total abortion ban was defeated in South Carolina with the help of the only three Republican women in the Senate, but after Tuesday’s primary, they’re losing their election bids.
Voters handed the senators—and winners of the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage award for people who risk their careers for the greater good—two losses and a runoff after they joined with Democratic women to defeat the measure, saying a pregnant woman shouldn’t lose control of her body as soon as an egg is fertilized.
But the state had only men in the Senate in 2012 and may end up without a single Republican woman in the chamber in 2025. There are just two Democratic women among the 46 members.
“You can’t tell me that’s not a slap in the face of women,” said Sen. Katrina Shealy who is gearing up for a runoff. “Republican women lose like this over one issue when we fought so hard for other things.””’
======================
Dutton should talk to Hollie Hughes about his woman problem.
”
Entropysays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:21 pm
Vensays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:19 pm
”
Entropysays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:11 pm
Vensays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:03 pm
Just because someone is a famous author like Arun***ti Roy does not mean they cannot be dangerous
For example, George Bernard Shaw was a hardcore supporter of Hitler and Nazi race theories.
=====================================================
Have you got any evidence that Arun***ti Roy has such beliefs? As i don’t believe someone should be arrested based on what beliefs George Bernard Shaw may or may not have had unless it is George Bernard Shaw.
”
Arundati Roy is supporter of Marxist-Leninists (a Communist faction, which wants to come to power through violence and killing of innocent people)
========================================================
Again, have you any evidence of this?
”
This is an Guardian article from 2011, when Congress was in Power.
https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/books/2011/jun/05/arundhati-roy-keep-destabilised-danger?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17185152639760&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbooks%2F2011%2Fjun%2F05%2Farundhati-roy-keep-destabilised-danger
“Her critics label her a Maoist sympathiser. Is she? “I am a Maoist sympathiser,” she says. “I’m not a Maoist ideologue, because the communist movements in history have been just as destructive as capitalism. But right now, when the assault is on, I feel they are very much part of the resistance that I support.”
If people like BW, Entropy, meherbaba support Maoists (a violent communist faction), I will leave this blog. You have gone so low to criticise Modi that You have become Communists supporters. Pathetic.
The thing is BW compared Modi to Hitler. I have lost all respect for BW.
I am leaving PB.
BW compared Modi to Hitler, who was just democratically elected as a leader of 1.4 billion people in a fair and well conducted elections.
You people have Hinduphobia.
Vensays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:26 pm
”
If people like BW, Entropy, meherbaba support Maoists (a violent communist faction), I will leave this blog. You have gone so low to criticise Modi that You have become Communists supporters. Pathetic.
====================================================
I don’t support Maoist nor far right Nationalists like Modi. I don’t believe people should be arrested for what they believe or say though. Only on what actions they take. On that grounds i see nothing this journalists has done that warrants her arrest. While their is ample evidence that Modi is a murderer and deserves to charged and tried for it.
Vensays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:37 pm
I am leaving PB.
BW compared Modi to Hitler, who was just democratically elected as a leader of 1.4 billion people in a fair and well conducted elections.
==================================================
Hitler was originally democratically elected too.
There was widespread documented voter intimidation, by the ruling BJP party in particular, in the recent election. The elections were in no way fair and well conducted.
Gosh. I’ve been off the blog pretty much since the budget. Log on this arvo and people ripping into each other. Nothing changes.
Vensays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:37 pm
I am leaving PB.
BW compared Modi to Hitler, who was just democratically elected as a leader of 1.4 billion people in a fair and well conducted elections.
You people have Hinduphobia.
=============================================
Criticism of Modi is as much hinduphobia as criticism of Netanyahu is antisemitism.
‘Ven says:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:37 pm
I am leaving PB.
BW compared Modi to Hitler, who was just democratically elected as a leader of 1.4 billion people in a fair and well conducted elections.
You people have Hinduphobia.’
———————-
Tsk tsk.
You dragged Shaw into a discussion of Modi’s targetting of Roy.
The obvious rejoinder is the way in which Hitler treated journalists.
The various and increasingly anti-democratic tendencies of Modi have been well-documented.
Charging Roy is merely the latest rung in the ladder.
Nothing to do with Modi being a Hindu or indeed with Modi being Hitler.
It is where Modi’s anti-democratic trajectory will take India.
That escalated quickly!
nadia88says:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:43 pm
Gosh. I’ve been off the blog pretty much since the budget. Log on this arvo and people ripping into each other. Nothing changes.
=====================================================
Actually we were ripping into Modi and his Government. If Ven takes that personally it is his choice. Though Ven himself often rips into the USA and its Government quite frequently. Sometimes deservedly, other times not.
Modi is no Hitler.
A comparison to Hitler would be someone who does genocide.
Stick around Ven.
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 3:59 pm
Modi is no Hitler.
A comparison to Hitler would be someone who does genocide.
====================================================
Nobody was seriously suggesting Modi was Hitler. Ven brought up the Hitler reference when making an accusation against an opponent of Modi. Then some worked it back the other way.
Modi is more your Dutton. Same general instincts.