Weekend miscellany: Archer on, Pearce off (open thread)

Retirement announcements from both the Liberal and Labor camps, and various disturbances in the force ensuing from the New South Wales redistribution proposal.

We’re about due for polls from Resolve Strategic in the Age/Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Financial Review, which could perhaps be along this evening. The fortnightly Essential Research should also be along on Tuesday, and as always Roy Morgan will come through on Monday. Other than that, the dominating piece of electoral news at the moment is the publication of the proposed federal redistribution of New South Wales on Friday, for which you can see my estimated margins and party vote shares in the dedicated post, and read my analysis piece in Crikey if you’re a subscriber.

Semi-relatedly, it’s also been a big week for preselection news:

• Gavin Pearce, who has held the traditionally marginal seat of Braddon in north-western Tasmania for the Liberals since 2019, will not recontest the seat at the next election, saying his parliamentary career had “taken a toll” on his family life. A factional conservative ally of state party powerbroker Eric Abetz, Pearce earlier told colleagues he was holding back on nominating to force the party to block his arch-moderate colleague Bridget Archer in the neighbouring seat of Bass, who in the event was preselected unopposed. The party will have to reopen nominations in Braddon, for which the failure of Pearce or anyone else to nominate last week was the first indication of his impending retirement. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Latrobe deputy mayor Vonette Mead is “understood to be the most likely candidate to replace Mr Pearce”, while Burnie deputy mayor Giovanna Simpson “has also been touted but is said to be eyeing the state upper house seat of Montgomery”. Both were candidates in Braddon at the March state election, respectively polling 2.1% and 2.6% on a Liberal ticket dominated by Premier Jeremy Rockliff.

• Another retirement announcement last week was that of Maria Vamvakinou, who has held the safe Labor seat of Calwell in northern Melbourne since 2001. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Basem Abdo, a communications specialist born in Kuwait of Palestinian parents, has what seems decisive backing to succeed her from the Socialist Left faction.

• James Campbell of the Daily Telegraph reports former New South Wales Treasurer Matt Kean is weighing up a preselection challenge against Bradfield MP Paul Fletcher, after the redistribution proposal made it likely the seat will be contested by teal independent member Kylea Tink, whose seat of North Sydney is to be abolished. The report quotes a Liberal source saying there would be “an argument among the moderates about who is best to hold that seat and a lot of them are going to say it is Matt Kean”. This would require reopening nominations for the seat, but Kean would likely have enough support to accomplish this.

• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports two candidates have nominated for Labor preselection in the northern Brisbane seat of Longman, which the party lost in 2019 and failed to win back in 2022: Rebecca Fanning, who has worked for Steven Miles, Wayne Swan and most recently state Mines Minister Scott Stewart, and Rhiannyn Douglas, a 27-year-old Left-aligned party organiser and former staffer to state Environment Minister Meaghan Scanlon.

• Claire Clutterham, Norwood Payneham and St Peters councillor and special counsel at LK Law, appears set to be the Labor candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, held for the Liberals by James Stevens on a margin of 0.5%, after a public endorsement from Anthony Albanese. InDaily reported last week that no other nominees were expected.

• Katina Curtis of The West Australian reports that Ian Goodenough, who has lost Liberal preselection for his northern Perth seat of Moore, says he is considering accepting an invitation from the Nationals to join the party, and has also raised the possibility of running as an independent. The Nationals have been pursuing designs on seats in Perth at the looming federal and state elections, and are “excited about the new seat of Bullwinkel”, a mixed urban-rural seat that encompasses traditionally Nationals-voting territory in the Avon Valley east of Perth.

• In her The Sauce column in the Sunday Telegraph, Linda Silmalis reports former state Nationals leader Paul Toole is a potential candidate for Calare, whose member Andrew Gee has been sitting as an independent since he quit the party in December 2022 over his support for the Indigenous Voice. Silmalis says there are also moves in the Liberal Party to persuade former state minister David Elliott to consider seeking preselection in Greenway, where the proposed boundaries reduce the Labor margin from 11.5% to 8.2% on my calculations. Elliott has often been mentioned in relation to the seat of Parramatta, where the party preselected local lawyer Katie Mullens after he declined to put his name forward.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

317 thoughts on “Weekend miscellany: Archer on, Pearce off (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 7
1 2 3 … 7

  1. Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 11:37 am
    The House of Representatives just passed the defense authorization bill which provides for a national, automatic registration by Selective Service of all young Americans between the ages of 18-26. This sets the stage for a large-scale conscription (draft) to enable expansion of…— Dennis Kucinich (@Dennis_Kucinich) June 14, 2024

    Bipartisan policy.
    ================================================

    I call BS on this statement by Rex it is bipartisan policy. What evidence have you it is bipartisan? Why shouldn’t we consider you just as bad as a RWNJ troll spreading fake accusations here?

    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/14/house-republicans-narrowly-pass-defense-bill-loaded-with-culture-war-issues-00163453

  2. A new pair of giant pandas will arrive at Adelaide Zoo in a swap for the popular duo who have called the zoo home for the past 15 years. Chinese Premier Li Qiang made the announcement at the zoo this morning, thanking South Australia for looking after Wang Wang and Fu Ni so well.
    “We will provide a new pair of equally beautiful, lovely and adorable pandas to the Adelaide Zoo,” he said. “I’m sure they will be loved and taken good care of by the people of Adelaide, South Australia, and Australia.”
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-16/chinese-premier-makes-panda-announcement/103984176

  6. … automatic registration by Selective Service of all young Americans between the ages of 18-26.

    That claim by Dennis Kucinich is flat out wrong.
    It’s men only, that part of the Defense Authorisation Bill had bipartisan support, Democrat culture war amendments fell over, narrowly.

  7. Badthinkersays:
    Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 12:01 pm
    Just when you thought the U.S. couldn’t get any more loopy, along comes the American Civil Liberties Uunion:

    Requiring Men but not Women to Register for the Draft is Sex Discrimination
    That’s why we’re asking the U.S. Supreme Court to end this practice.
    =======================================================

    It seems to be a valid argument to me. One i believe they have every right to test in a court of law.

  9. ‘Crows’ was a terrible choice of nickname from Adelaide footy club.

    Horrible bird that should be managed out of existence.

  11. DETROIT — In a span of two hours Saturday, Donald Trump walked onto stages twice in this battleground state — once as pyrotechnics flashed around him before some 8,000 MAGA loyalists, and earlier, in a predominately Black church where he is still laboring to make gains.

    For Trump, who is trying to rally base voters while also cutting into President Joe Biden’s support among people of color, the appearances at two different ends of the city — and with two starkly different demographics — illustrated the ground Trump still has to make up here.

    Unlike with his base at the mostly white Turning Point Action conference inside a downtown convention center, Trump’s reception at the church in a low-income neighborhood, while mostly warm, was at times reserved — or, in one case, worse.

    A lone heckler seated in the back, wearing a medical mask beneath her nose, spoke back to Trump throughout his remarks about how he “would not address Covid,” shouting at one point for him to “drink some bleach.”

    And some of Trump’s harshest rhetoric on illegal immigration — including that Black people should repel what he called an “invasion of your jobs” — drew only tepid applause, though the crowd rose to its feet as he bashed “radical left wing gender ideology,” among other topics that resonated.

    “This is a nice church, by the way. Very nice,” Trump said after arriving at 180 Church on the west side of Detroit. The afternoon sun beamed into the sanctuary through panels of stained glass, the cracks in some of which were patched with pieces of tape.

    Trump’s campaign that afternoon had announced a “Black Americans for Trump” initiative to coincide with the upcoming Juneteenth holiday, sharing endorsement messages from prominent Black politicians, entertainers, athletes and faith leaders. Among those included in Trump’s new Black voter coalition was former Democratic Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, who served time in prison for felony fraud and racketeering convictions, and whose sentence Trump commuted before leaving office.

    And inside the sweltering church, a Black Republican activist, Valerie Parker, offered Trump a welcome: “Thank you, Mr. President, for coming to the hood.”

    But Trump lost badly in heavily-Democratic Detroit in 2020, and his play for Black voters here prompted rebukes from Democratic politicians and other faith leaders in Michigan. The Biden campaign on Saturday released a comment from longtime Detroit pastor James Perkins, blasting Trump for having “the nerve to waltz into our city and act like he wants to understand the struggles Black Detroiters face, but the reality is he doesn’t care.”

    “Every time Trump opens his mouth to talk to Black folks, he demonizes us, insults us, and makes empty promises he’ll never keep,” Perkins said.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/15/trump-rallies-maga-base-courts-black-voters-in-detroit-00163597

  12. Badthinkersays:
    Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 12:10 pm
    Entropy
    …
    Shakin’ muh haid.
    You were having kittens about the prospect of a Trump Draft 12 minutes ago.
    ========================================================

    Totally against the draft. Totally for aspects of it being challenged in a court of law though. How is that not a consistent position? If women get drafted too it is even more likely not to go ahead though. I’m happy for the whole thing to be made unworkable by challenging one aspect of it at a time.

  13. Scotland 5/180: Marsh himself dropped three catches, hurting his finger with the last attempt.
    Australia at one point dropped three catches in as many deliveries, and it helped Scottish captain Richie Berrington stay to the death with 42 not out off 31 balls. Starc had three catches dropped off his bowling – and one from Zampa in the outfield should have been taken.

  14. 18 year old males still register in the US
    It is a very long tradition since the 1860s and means their names are available if a draft is called, although there has not been one in 50 years. This bill means that the obligation to register will be replaced by data harvesting from other federal sources.

    Including women is a very reasonable proposition

    Once registered you used to be assessed by the local draft board and classified. My aim would be 4F not suitable for any military service

  15. “Laura Tingle is one of Australia’s most experienced, knowledgeable and accomplished journalists,” said ABC director Justin Stevens, as he politely publicly reprimanded her on 29 May for making personal comments at a forum, which he claims failed to meet ABC editorial standards.

    During a Sydney writer’s event, Tingle said, “We are a racist country, let’s face it. We always have been”. And it’s safe to say that the real issue Stevens and others had was not that Tingle neglected to footnote her comments, but that she rather spoke the nation’s cardinal forbidden truth.

    And let’s face it, Australia is fundamentally racist. Australia was founded by white British people, who claimed the continent for themselves, because the First Nations people didn’t exist, according to official policy, and therefore, these Black people could be exterminated, and their land stolen.

    But when Tingle spoke her words on 26 May, she wasn’t referring to these foundational genocidal acts, rather she was alluding to Liberal leader Peter Dutton’s assertion that if he’s elected next year, he will cut migration as a policy solution to the housing crisis in this country.

    And Dutton’s absurd policy suggestion is pure racialised dog whistling, and as it’s quintessential Australian politicking, it goes unchecked.

    Yet, when one of our most respected journalists speaks an obvious truth triggered by this, she’s dragged over hot coals for speaking the unspeakable.’

    https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/calling-australia-racist-is-forbidden-yet-racialised-politicking-is-its-mainstay/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-25

  16. Cat I’m afraid Labor Tas is still in the dunny looking for toilet paper so we will flop in Braddon and Bass (my electorate) again. Lyons isn’t much chop either_ might lose that too. MBs assessment of Braddon is spot on, unfortunately. If we could another Franklin woman and paste her into Bass, game on. I wish !!

  19. Sandman @ #NaN Sunday, June 16th, 2024 – 12:34 pm

    Cat I’m afraid Labor Tas is still in the dunny looking for toilet paper so we will flop in Braddon and Bass (my electorate) again. Lyons isn’t much chop either_ might lose that too. MBs assessment of Braddon is spot on, unfortunately. If we could another Franklin woman and paste her into Bass, game on. I wish !!

    Thanks for that, Sandman. I just wonder why Taswegians can see Eric Abetz pulling Ultra Conservative Liberal strings and don’t punish them for it? Supposedly Tasmania being an enlightened Progressive state and all (MONA, Bob Brown and Greens in government).

    As far as Tassie Labor is concerned, are there people in the party, still, who just do not want to give up control of the branch, even if they keep losing elections because of them?

  21. “We’ll decide who comes to this country, and the manner in which they come!”

    Nothing much has changed since then for the Coalition, has it?

  22. I would imagine Adelaide are the Crows because people from South Australia were known as Crow Eaters (I have no idea why), just as Queenslanders were Banana Benders, Tasmanians were Apple Eaters. I don’t recall what we called people from NSW or Victoria.

  24. ‘Aced it!’ Trump mocked as he forgets name of doctor who gave him dementia test

    Donald Trump bragged again about how he “aced” a cognitive test designed to test for dementia — and then he got the name of the White House doctor who gave him it wrong.

    Dr. Ronny Jackson was not only Trump’s doctor while president, he’s also a Texas Republican congressman and a staunch ally of the former president who even attended his New York criminal trial.

    The flub came as Trump was criticizing President Joe Biden’s mental capacity.

    “I think he should take a cognitive test like I did,” the former president said while speaking to a convention of the right-wing group Talking Point Action in Detroit Saturday.

    “I took a cognitive test and I aced it. Doctor Ronny. Doctor Ronny Johnson, does everyone know Ronny Johnson? Congressman from Texas? He was the White House doctor, and he said I was the healthiest president, he feels, in history. So I liked him very much. He said if I didn’t eat junk food, I would live to 200. That’s what he said.”

  25. Maxwell and Head at the crease.
    England have their bags on the bed but not packing them yet.
    2/59 chasing 181.
    Run rate required 10ish. Currently 6ish.

  28. c@t: There are progressive, green people all over Tasmania, but far fewer of them in Braddon than elsewhere.

    Conversely, there are a lot more conservative Christians in Braddon.

  31. Oakeshott Country says Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 12:55 pm

    NSW were cornstalkers but I think Cockroaches, used by the blues, is much more descriptive.

    I wonder why they got the name cornstalkers, or what a cornstalker is? But then I’m West Australian and I have no idea what a sandgroper is. The drawings of one don’t help.

  32. Mavis posted

    But when Tingle spoke her words on 26 May, she wasn’t referring to these foundational genocidal acts, rather she was alluding to Liberal leader Peter Dutton’s assertion that if he’s elected next year, he will cut migration as a policy solution to the housing crisis in this country.

    Mavis, given that Tingle added the words ‘and always has been’ I think we can safely assume that colonisation was at least part of her thinking. If it wasn’t, as you suggest, and she was basing it all on Dutton’s plan to cut immigration, that would effectively be saying that you can’t cut immigration without being racist, which is just absurd.

  34. I have never heard New South Welshmen called ‘cornstalkers’ in my life. It must be a very old attribution.

  36. It is a reference to the second and later generations of New South Welsh – “the Currency Lads”. In the healthy environment of NSW they were taller and fitter than their English counterparts.

    Aqua, it was Barry Muir who called the Blues, the Cockroaches – I think it refers to how people live in Sydney.

  39. I think Chinese Premier Li is fond of Aussie red just like his boss Xi. And I’m pretty sure I just witnessed some Penfolds Grange diplomacy.

    Driving back home for lunch here in the Adelaide eastern suburbs I just drove along Penfolds Road past the Magill winery and restaurant. The site was “closed for a private event with SA Police at each entry. It is one of the premium restaurants in Adelaide and you can ask for a vertical tasting of Grange.

    There were Falung Gong protesters at the two nearby roundabouts and outside the main entrance. SAPol were doing a discrete but effective job keeping them at arms length.

    So now as I type the Chinese premier is getting relaxed less than 1000 metres away . Scomo would have taken him to Shark Park and Engadine Maccas 😀

  42. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 12:22 pm
    18 year old males still register in the US
    It is a very long tradition since the 1860s and means their names are available if a draft is called, although there has not been one in 50 years. This bill means that the obligation to register will be replaced by data harvesting from other federal sources.

    Including women is a very reasonable proposition

    Once registered you used to be assessed by the local draft board and classified. My aim would be 4F not suitable for any military service
    ===============================================

    Thanks for that clarification. So it appears Rex’s initial post on this was even more misleading than even i thought. Not only did he suggest a Bill that only passed 217-199 had bipartisan support. He also implied that this Bill was bringing in conscription or making it much easier to do so. When in fact that section of the Bill, was only just changing the methodology that could be used to determine who was eligible. With the laws passed enabling this conscription by the US state, even outside a official war declaration?, already in place for ages.

  47. Wheal to David, 2 runs: length ball around off. David launches it towards midwicket. Sole moves to his right and get under it, but ends up dropping it. Was never steady but what a time to drop a catch. Score are level.
    Wheal to David, SIX runs in the slot and David finishes it off in style.

Comments Page 2 of 7
1 2 3 … 7

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *