Polls: Roy Morgan and RedBridge NSW state (open thread)

Rather surprising federal and New South Wales state poll results, plus the latest on a seemingly uneventful state by-election to be held the Saturday after next.

Two disturbances to an otherwise quiet week on the polling front:

• The usual weekly Roy Morgan poll is something of an outlier in recording a 53.5-46.5 lead for Labor, out from 52-48 last week and 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition the week before. Despite this, Labor’s primary vote is actually down half a point to 30.5%, with the Coalition down one to 35%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 15.5% and One Nation up one to 5.5%. We are also told that state breakdowns had Labor ahead 56-44 in New South Wales and 57.5% in Victoria and the Coalition ahead 53-47 in Queensland, which would respectively among to swings of 4.6%, 2.7% and 1.0% to Labor. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1687.

• As reported in the Daily Telegraph, RedBridge Group has a third state poll combining survey waves from February and May to follow on from its earlier results for Victoria and Queensland, this time for New South Wales from a sample of 1376. The result is perhaps surprisingly bleak for Chris Minns’ Labor government, which is credited with a two-partly lead of just 50.5-49.5, compared with its 54.3-45.7 winning margin at the March 2023 election. The primary votes are Labor 35%, compared with 37.0% at the election, Coalition 40%, compared with 35.4%, and Greens 11%, compared with 9.7%. Despite this, 40% separately rate the government’s performance as good or very good compared with 20% for poor and 32% for neither, while “the Liberal-National opposition led by Mark Speakman” scores 19% positive, 21% negative and 41% neither.

Staying in New South Wales, a by-election for the safe Nationals seat of Northern Tablelands will be held on June 22. The Nationals candidate is Brendan Moylan, a Moree solicitor who outgoing member Adam Marshall says was “overwhelmingly” preselected in a vote of around 200 local party members. Labor is not fielding a candidate, with Moylan’s competition consisting of Shooters Fishers and Farmers, the Greens and two independents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

903 thoughts on “Polls: Roy Morgan and RedBridge NSW state (open thread)”

Comments Page 18 of 19
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  1. What else can we discuss. What is causing the rise of the right in Europe, or perhaps the outcome of the U.S. election, …
    Wilders, LePen, Orban aren’t the Right, they’re cucks.
    In the U.S., Trump will cuck for sure if he gets back in.
    He didn’t go full cuck last time because he wanted a 2nd Term, this time it will be balls out.
    I reckon first up, he’ll ban guns, say Ivanka told him to.

  2. Dutton probably had his worst week for the year last week.
    He thought he would do a reprise of Abbott.
    Dutton the Klutz had four climate policies in a week.
    His Shadow spokespersons were forced to defend version after version.
    The Coalition backbenchers were freelancing.
    And the result? No emissions target at all! Dutton will announce that AFTER the election.
    He is not up there with Sunak but he is giving it a shake.
    Fancy trying to make investment decisions with Dictator Dutton at the helm.

  3. Kirsdarke at 7.56pm
    ===================
    Bit personal Kirsdarke, but typical of people like you.
    I’ll watch my Grandson, and monitor everything his schoolteachers choose to teach. Slightest deviance on behalf of the teacher, and i’ll be down there at the school to deal with the enemy. Bogging them down with complaints is the weapon. The process is worse than the endgame. In simple speak, wreck the teachers career with endless complaints. Better still, use private education to get away from the leftie teacher unions. Teacher unions work for themselves, not the kids. Of course, the left keep trying to infiltrate private education, probably because parents are fleeing the state run rubbish education. What is it in Victoria – almost 41% of Yr11 and 12 kids are now educated privately. Wonder why. Do you want kids to be educated, or indoctrinated with climate rubbish that the sky is falling in and sea water is lapping at your letterbox. My age group had to put up with the fear of a nuclear bomb dropping on us. We got over it. So don’t worry, i’ll monitor my grandchildrens education closely, and any woke educator who crosses my path will cop it. Love the looks on their useless faces when they’re challenged too. They’re piss weak when challenged because they’re used to surrounding themselves with like minds.

  4. Typical ‘Integrity’ Rex:

    “ Has A_E actually changed his tune on east coast offshore wind ?

    I seem to recall the squealing of despair about such a proposition that it would destroy Labor’s vote because of the view from the balcony out to sea…”

    1. You are taking advantage of my honesty: I declared my biases early on this issue. I am a salt water person.

    2. IMO – my biases reflect the opinions of Australia’s beach culture that, inter alia, runs along the eastern seaboard. It is not just folk who have water views from the front balcony (FYI, I don’t have water views from mine, if you exclude Wolli Creek, lol). It’s everybody that loves the beach and the ocean. Including working class folk who value the precious times that that can grab to travel to and from the beach on occasion.

    3. My main point is now playing out: the LNP will use the cultural affinity of our beach culture to drive a stake through more than half a dozen labor held seats from the victorian to queensland borders. Constance was ranging FAr from Gilmore today because of the ripple effect that this campaign will have: just like the backlash from Bob Brown’s EV convoy was felt far from the Galilee basin in queensland and cost Labor the seat of Longman (on the norther outskirts of Brisbane) in 2019.

    When i initially posted I had the shits with the notion of offshore wind-farms adjacent to some prime beach landscape – ones that I frequent, as do many working and lower middle class folk. Especially when other land based locations are readily available. I now understand better the importance of constancy of offshore wind flows (and regrettably currents adjacent to the coastline) for its firming qualities. however, the political risks are absolutely huge. Half a dozen seats from Eden to the north coast could fall FROM labor into the shitheads in the LNP.

    THAT is something that should concern you as much as it does me, Rex. But i doubt it because I believe you to be a tory cosplaying ‘progressive concern’ as a ploy to gaslight and undermine Labor politically.

  5. @ KKK ‘Alabama’:

    “ Chris Bowen isn’t liked.
    Everyone knows it.
    Where is Jason Clare? Wrong faction.”

    _____

    Your brain is broken. Bowen & Clare are both NSW Centre Unity.

  6. ALABAMA
    I have never seen someone come out with such unmitigated shit as your last post on this site!

    Some have come close, but you take the cake.

  7. Goodthinker re: election
    =========================
    No federal election before NT or QLD. Albo and the ALP will be peeking from behind the curtains watching those results first. There are also Federal redistributions to be finalised, and members selected for the new boundaries. They stitched up a TEAL in NSW, so probably no appeals there, but I suspect Victoria may drag on given a Labor seat got the chop.
    Earliest for an election would be early Dec this year, but given the state of the polls for labor, most likely after a March budget, so around May 2025.

  8. ALABAMA:

    You discount any bad news for Labor out of the Reynolds/Higgins defamation stoush starting 23 July and running 6 weeks?
    It will be livestreamed, the Lamestream media can’t pretend it’s not happening.

  9. Flood the zone with shit!

    The reactionaries’ way: On bludger we have now got Badthinker,FUBAR, Piped Pooper, KKK Alabama. Nostranazi (until be was banned). The bots Bree and Wayne pop up from time to time, as does small ‘m’ michael from Menzies house. Abbott (2010-13) redux is the MO – the word from the dark lord and Sith Lord has gone out and own little death eaters will comply.

  10. Boring war at 7.51pm
    ===============
    Who cares anymore?
    Trump was convicted by a left wing court. Who cares?
    Democrat voters who would never vote for Trump. No one cares what they think, like no one on the right cares for what you think.
    It’s all very simple. We moved on from debate, like you and cat have. It’s the new world . Conservatives have been ridiculed, rubbished, silenced, sued and ignored by your mob for years now. So they moved on and put their loyalty in people who don’t treat them like dirt. Bores like you, are ignored and wiped, although I turn up to rub it in for fun.
    Ok – give us another 29 point dissertation, please. You know only lefties and canutes like me read it.

  11. Thankyou ALABAMA
    I was feeling rather constipated, but you have filled me with the urge to defecate.

    Apologies Roger waters

  12. Badthinkersays:
    Saturday, June 15, 2024 at 8:43 pm
    ALABAMA:

    You discount any bad news for Labor out of the Reynolds/Higgins defamation stoush starting 23 July and running 6 weeks?
    It will be livestreamed, the Lamestream media can’t pretend it’s not happening.
    =====================================================

    Former LNP Minister having a stoush with a former LNP staffer who was raped in her office. What bad news are you expecting for Labor supporters out of that blue on blue fiasco. Do you think they might run out of popcorn?

  13. Been There at 8.32pm
    ==================
    Let me crack open another six pack and i’ll join you for a bit of “night shift”. Which post you referring to, I’ve been busy tonight.

  14. Goodthinker at 8.43 pm
    =================
    Sorry mate, apart from about 3 lawyers and half a dozen on this site, not many give a shit about the higgins/lehrmann/wilkinson thing. Judges are paid to sort this out.
    Know it’s a bit harsh, but it ain’t no BBQ stopper.
    Love your work though. Keep it up.

  15. Entropy @ #863 Saturday, June 15th, 2024 – 8:55 pm

    Badthinkersays:
    Saturday, June 15, 2024 at 8:43 pm
    ALABAMA:

    You discount any bad news for Labor out of the Reynolds/Higgins defamation stoush starting 23 July and running 6 weeks?
    It will be livestreamed, the Lamestream media can’t pretend it’s not happening.
    =====================================================

    Former LNP Minister having a stoush with a former LNP staffer who was raped in her office. What bad news are you expecting for Labor supporters out of that blue on blue fiasco. Do you think they might run out of popcorn?

    The 2 lunar right wingers are really trying to gin it up, aren’t they? It’s got nothing to do with the Labor Party, but according to them it has everything to do with the Labor Party. 🙄

    Nary a mention of fat boy, frat boy and his latest case beginning in Toowoomba soon. Not discussing actual pertinent personages, as it relates to Reynolds and Higgins, in other words, leaving out Lehrmann and what he has been adjudicated as having done to Brittany Higgins, leading as it inevitably did to the Reynolds/Higgins matter, is as a blank page to these guys. And yet, they expect us to take seriously what they have to say about it. Lol.

  16. Painted Dog is polling in WA. I suspect it was commissioned by a faction within the Liberals. The usual questions about past and intended voting intention and what are the most important issues.

    The most interesting part I think were questions comparing current Liberal Leader Libby Mettam and Basil Zempalis who isn’t even a member of Parliament. They also asked about the Nationals leader whose name I have forgotten already.

    The Nationals are threatening to contest seats in the Perth Metro area, much to the chagrin of the Libs. Zempalis, an employee of 7West Media will be heavily promoted by the billionaires media and if successful would be a patsy to the mining industries.

    Following the rout at the last election we can expect a few more Liberals will be elected next year but there is no way that Roger Cook won’t still be Premier. I would be surprised if the Nationals win any seats beyond those they already have.

  17. Been There – not a wedding surely. Let’s have a chat about climate change or the rise of the right in Europe, or the state of politics in the U.S. I just cracked open a stubbie. Bit disappointed. Come back Been There pls.

  18. C@tmommasays:
    Saturday, June 15, 2024 at 9:06 pm
    Entropy @ #863 Saturday, June 15th, 2024 – 8:55 pm

    Badthinkersays:
    Saturday, June 15, 2024 at 8:43 pm
    ALABAMA:

    You discount any bad news for Labor out of the Reynolds/Higgins defamation stoush starting 23 July and running 6 weeks?
    It will be livestreamed, the Lamestream media can’t pretend it’s not happening.
    =====================================================

    Former LNP Minister having a stoush with a former LNP staffer who was raped in her office. What bad news are you expecting for Labor supporters out of that blue on blue fiasco. Do you think they might run out of popcorn?
    —————————————

    The 2 lunar right wingers are really trying to gin it up, aren’t they? It’s got nothing to do with the Labor Party, but according to them it has everything to do with the Labor Party.

    Nary a mention of fat boy, frat boy and his latest case beginning in Toowoomba soon. Not discussing actual pertinent personages, as it relates to Reynolds and Higgins, in other words, leaving out Lehrmann and what he has been adjudicated as having done to Brittany Higgins, leading as it inevitably did to the Reynolds/Higgins matter, is as a blank page to these guys. And yet, they expect us to take seriously what they have to say about it. Lol.
    =======================================================

    To be fair, it appears that even ALABAMA isn’t buying what Badthinker was selling in that post.

  19. Entropy,
    Don’t think I can remember either of them making a negative comment about the guy who is the cause of it all?

  20. The European fascists of the 20s-40s were all left wingers, Labor is always whistling a fascist tune -what do you think A Future Made In Australia suggests, if not the Corporate State being the Tooth Fairy/Santa Claus?

  21. The last December Federal election was 1984, although December elections were common up until then. They seem to have fallen out of favour since then.

  22. Badthinkersays:
    Saturday, June 15, 2024 at 9:15 pm
    The European fascists of the 20s-40s were all left wingers, Labor is always whistling a fascist tune -what do you think A Future Made In Australia suggests, if not the Corporate State being the Tooth Fairy/Santa Claus?
    =====================================================

    How did they trick B. A. Santamaria in supporting them? He hated left wingers.

  23. Entropysays:
    Saturday, June 15, 2024 at 9:20 pm
    Badthinkersays:
    Saturday, June 15, 2024 at 9:15 pm
    The European fascists of the 20s-40s were all left wingers, Labor is always whistling a fascist tune -what do you think A Future Made In Australia suggests,
    =========================================================

    Slightly less jobs in China. Are you actually a commie Badthinker?

  24. Andrew_Earlwood at 8.45pm
    ====================
    No one is flooding any zone. WB controls what gets flooded and what disappears. None of my posts have met the chop tonight, so what is it you are after . Everyone agreeing with everyone else.
    Just because I’ve managed to clear the lefties off the site in the space of 3 hrs, is not my problem. They are the piss weak one’s, not me. They slag FUBAR, Lars, pied piper, goodthinker, michael and Irene, but they go to pieces when I turn up. Why is that? I accept I am an “in your face” poster, so what. Do you think Boer and C@t are wilting violets. I think you are a lawyer, and most lawyers i know are not wilting violets. I am just the right wing version of the left.

    Ok, i’ll bugger off and you can have your North Korea blog again if that’s what you prefer.
    Ta ta all. Good night entropy and badthinker, think you are both ok, and no I’m not Marysfarm.

  25. C@tmommasays:
    Saturday, June 15, 2024 at 9:14 pm

    “Don’t think I can remember either of them making a negative comment about the guy who is the cause of it all?”

    Hi C@t!
    That’s because chubby fatso slugface is their poster boy. Just like the rest of them. Too fat, too ugly and too stupid to attract anyone without spiking their drink first, and taking what they want by force. Pathetic!

  26. The following election was in July, the previous July election was 1943.
    For some reason, Winter elections were avoided, perhaps the Cold?
    With the amount of PrePolls open lately, plus Postal voting, I think only the week before Christmas to the week after Australia Day would be inconvenient
    Anyway, an election for 3/8/2024 could be called 1/7/2024, but no earlier.
    There’s numerological symmetry in those numbers, the first adds up to 3/8/8, the 2nd to 8/8.
    Disclaimer:
    don’t bet more than you can afford to lose

  27. Re Bad Thinker @9:15.

    ”The European fascists of the 20s-40s were all left wingers..,” Some started as left-wingers but by the tme they got near the levers of power they had abandoned any socialist notions. The admirers of the “New Germany” were on the Right, including Menzies.

    ”Labor is always whistling a fascist tune”. You seem to have confused Labor with elements of the “Liberal” party and their media wing Newscorp…

    ”what do you think A Future Made In Australia suggests, if not the Corporate State being the Tooth Fairy/Santa Claus?” it suggests sensible policy to overcome future market failures and disruptions. Depending upon supply chains thousands of kilometers long just to keep things ticking over makes no sense.

  28. C@tmomma @ #842 Saturday, June 15th, 2024 – 7:48 pm

    Aqualung,
    The thing that gets me about the Anti Wind Power mob, is that they take their cues from one of the most ignorant men to ever hold real power, Donald Trump! I guess maybe it’s because he has a way of making the ridiculous sound plausible.

    Yes. I just shake my head.
    At that distance they’ll barely be visible if at all.
    They must think whales are stupid. Shame about echolocation.
    Seals and penguins might appreciate somewhere to rest if they can reach the platform if there is one.
    Don’t know if you made it to Pier 39.
    When we were there, there was barely a vacant spot on the wharves due to the seals and sea lions.

  29. JJ Hall,
    To use a word about them that they have used about others…willing cucks for Donald Trump and slugs like Steve Bannon. Sad. They believe they are operating from a position of strength through force, but in actuality it is all simply a sign of the weakness of their positions that they have to try and impose them by earbashing others.

  30. Badthinkersays:
    Saturday, June 15, 2024 at 9:29 pm
    The following election was in July, the previous July election was 1943.
    For some reason, Winter elections were avoided, perhaps the Cold?
    With the amount of PrePolls open lately, plus Postal voting, I think only the week before Christmas to the week after Australia Day would be inconvenient
    Anyway, an election for 3/8/2024 could be called 1/7/2024, but no earlier.
    There’s numerological symmetry in those numbers, the first adds up to 3/8/8, the 2nd to 8/8.
    Disclaimer:
    don’t bet more than you can afford to lose
    ==================================================

    Are you betting on it yourself?

    Quote: “Who is more foolish? The fool or the fool who follows him?”

    If your looking for people to bet against your prediction. I suspect there would be lots of takers. Considering it would be money for jam.

  31. Fascism is authoritarian right. There are also authoritarian left ideologies, but they have other names.

    However there is no point arguing about it because most people (quite meaninglessly) use left and right (in either order) to mean “my tribe” and “the other”, squash everything down to one dimension, and attribute positive characteristics to their label and negative characteristics to the other label.

  32. Aqualung,
    It’s so good to see the sea lions coming back, to the harbour, and one out your way today. Also, the pictures of sea lions on North Sea oil rigs are legion, so I can’t see why they wouldn’t like a wind tower platform?

  33. Badthinkersays:
    Saturday, June 15, 2024 at 9:33 pm
    Santa was a leftie too.
    Just another gangster politicking for top spot on the Labor dunghill.
    ===================================================

    So if you believe Labor are fascists. Where does that put Dutton who is to the far right of fascism, using your highly dubious definitions?

  34. Basically, some people on the (self-labelled) right have picked up that “fascism = bad” (fair enough) and put that together with their own equation “bad = left” (tautologically, because anything bad that happens is obviously the fault of the left) to get “fascism = left”.

  35. Personally i think wind towers are far nicer than 100’s of coal ships that sit off the Newcastle coast constantly. In a decade or so those coal ships will all be gone, good riddance in my opinion.

  36. The whole “wind turbines are ugly / kill whales / birds / whatever is a furphy being astroturfed by vested interests and being compained about people who have never expressed the slightest interest in the natural environment.

    For ugliness, you’d be hard-pressed to go past an open cut coal mine, coal fired power stations and the NSW Central Coast and the beach-front high-rise on the Gold Coast, all of which have resulted in the death of more wildlife than any wind farm.

    By they way, can someone provide a link for the number of whales killed by wind farms, from a credible source?

  37. @Steve777 at 10:23pm

    You’d probably have to ask Matt Canavan himself, given that he has his personal staff team dab his face with coal dust makeup when he’s about to make an “anti-woke” announcement about energy policies.

  38. Steve

    “ The whole “wind turbines are ugly / kill whales / birds / whatever is a furphy being astroturfed by vested interests and being compained about people who have never expressed the slightest interest in the natural environment.

    For ugliness, you’d be hard-pressed to go past an open cut coal mine, coal fired power stations and the NSW Central Coast and the beach-front high-rise on the Gold Coast, all of which have resulted in the death of more wildlife than any wind farm.”

    +1

    “By they way, can someone provide a link for the number of whales killed by wind farms, from a credible source?”

    I have never seen any scientific evidence that the answer is anything other than zero. It must be zero for multiple reasons:
    – wind turbine noise is low; not detectable above the noise of the wind at 100 metres away.
    – the air/sea surface boundary layer often reflects noise. It does not propagate into water.
    – mechanisms in the design of the wind towers and nacelles prevent noise and vibration entering the water.

    The whole idea of wind noise affecting whales is just made up BS. The world’s oceans are getting noisier as more and bigger boats, jet-skies etc enter them each year. Wind turbines are almost irrelevant.

  39. COST OF LIVING V CLIMATE CHANGE
    With the issue of climate change a frequent flier in PB debates and conflict, I thought I would put my own 20 cents opinion into the mix. This is the first and last time I will say anything about it in PB.

    In November 2023, Climate Barometer asked this question
    With financial worries so widespread, is there space in the public mind and political discourse for climate change ?

    “Worsening financial pressures on households have been used by some politicians, pressure groups and media outlets to argue against green policies on the grounds of costs. Our data tracker shows people blame governments and the energy system (not green initiatives) for their high bills”.

    Public First in the UK found green policies were viewed as least responsible for the cost-0f-living crisis . Green policies were not seen as the main cause of the countries economic problems. Only 21 % of the most conservative voters thought the cost of living crisis could be partially blamed on “ the UK trying to be more environmentally friendly”. The price of energy, the Ukraine war, and post COVID economic recovery as the “main reason” for the UK cost of living crisis had conservative support between 42-52%.

    Worries about finances are relevant to how people perceive green policies. Onward, for example, found that support for net zero policies drops once the (possible) costs are emphasized.

    “Support in principle softens in practice, particularly when people were asked about making changes to their homes. Only 46% were happy to pay higher prices for their fuel and household items if it led to less carbon being emitted in the atmosphere

    64% of conservatives were opposed

    . For example, net support for making every household install insulation and double glazing fell from +36 % to -12 % when the estimated cost of 8,000 pounds is revealed”.

    Onward: Getting to Zero- Thin Ice ? Public Support for new net zero policies. November, 2022

    There is no reason to assume there must be a conflict between critical and immediate cost-of-living and support for green policies. Nor is the perception that at least in the immediate future, people must choose between addressing household cost of living concerns or sharing the cost of addressing climate change as a household, as an electorate member, as a country.

    Climate Barometer: Comment: Climate Change vs the Cost of Living

    Before the 2022 election, an ABC Vote Compass report in April showed that climate change, cost of living and the economy were the big election issues and “voters were still “split along party lines”. The data findings were based on 97,159 respondents between April 11 and April 17 in 2022.

    Responses were recorded to the open text question “What issue is most important to you in this election?”
    29% of Australians identified climate change as their number one issue, but this was a view held by only 8% of Coalition voters compared to 30% of Labor voters and 50 % of Green voters.

    For Liberal -National Party voters, climate change ranked behind the economy (34%), second was cost of living (13%) and third defence and public spending (12%).

    For Labor voters, climate change was followed by government accountability (17%), cost of living (14%) and health care (10%)

    Green voters were most worried about climate change, then the environment (14%), cost of living (10 %) and government accountability (7%).
    The report noted climate change had shot ahead as an as the most important issue of concern from 5% in 2016 to 27% in 2019 and 29% in 2022.
    Associate Professor Andrea Carson said the vote compass data showed a disconnect between the election campaign messaging of the major parties and “what voters wanted to hear”.
    “Clearly we are seeing they want to hear about climate change-not all sections of the population- but a large proportion” and yet the major parties were “conspicuously absent in talking about climate change”.

    Carson conceded that the political reality in noting that “It has been political poison for both sides, which might be why they are reluctant to talk about it”, recalling the failed Julia Gillard promise that there would “no carbon tax under a government which I lead” and the axing of two Liberal leaders in recent years.

    The conspicuous absence perception was over embellishment; however the Teals came along to fill the climate change crisis void with a specific focus on climate change as one pillar of their election platform, along with government accountability and women focused concerns in politics, the economy and elsewhere.

    Emily Baker. Vote Compass: Australia Votes. April 22, 2022

    What about the cost of living ?

    The data in this 2022 survey showed cost of living had become more important to voters than in the previous two elections. 3 % rated cost of living as the most important issue in 2016, 4% in 2019 and 13% in 2022. Antony Green noted the conservative government was saying you handle cost-of-living by handling the economy well, whereas the Labor party was talking about “wages and cost of living in that way from a different direction”.

    Emily Baker. Vote Compass: Australia Votes. April 22, 2022

    With the 2022 election done and dusted, cost of living shot ahead to be the number one social concern for 60% of Australians, well ahead of climate change, according to Powered by Nine.

    Cultural Conversation Research ‘The Revolution will be Advertised. The study is the latest to flag growing concern over rising prices’(October, 2022).

    Concern about climate change on the broad scale is one thing. However, being willing to share the cost of addressing climate change and the capacity to absorb that cost in a cost-of-living crisis has proven to be another thing altogether. UK research conducted in February 2024 demonstrates this important distinction.

    A survey of 2,000 people carried out by Opinium on behalf of Positive Money found 75% of UK adults were concerned about the increasing cost in heating or cooling the home, 69% were worried about grocery prices, 54 % on the prices of housing or rent, 74% on electricity costs, 68 % on the cost of water and 59% on transport costs.

    This ‘climateflation’ shows people are not just concerned about changes in the weather and the environmental damage climate warming is causing both internationally and domestically. It is no longer an issue just for Green voters and environment activists.
    However, in the UK Opinium survey that for many of the survey participants “more pressing issues drown out concern about climate change”, particularly when “cost of living worries dominate”. .

    Another issue is actual fairness [ in terms of affordability for different social groups

    and perceived fairness of climate policy. This fairness element is critical to
    – whether such policies are accepted by enough people thinking the cost burden is shared reasonably across the country ,
    – how quickly climate policy is implemented, and
    – whether or not (in the face of changing circumstances and increasing costs) climate change policies can maintain positive support or at least a level of tolerance in the individual household, in the minds of farmers and producers, in the minds of business interests and investors, in media outlets, in the mind of voters between one election and the next.

    Opinion Insight: the latest from the cost of living timeline Survey: February 2024

    .

    ACOSS raised concerns about the capacity of groups forced involuntarily to deal with the effects of climate change (floods fire, drought, heat spells, water insecurity) on the broader environment and the economy and the direct relationship between climate change and the cost of living (fuel and food price increases, interest rate and rent increases, higher insurance premiums, energy bills, the threat of government austerity measures).

    ACOSS response to IPCC report: fast, fair and inclusive climate change action urgently needed

    .

    What about the voluntary aspect here in Australia, the capacity of groups to share the cost of addressing climate change itself ? If we are to get to net zero emissions by 2050 or x emissions reduction by 2030, are we willing and/or capable of sharing the cost burden of achieving those objectives ?

    It’s not hard to imagine Joanne voter thinking like this.

    ‘I am having enough trouble dealing the effect of climate change on the cost of living in Australia. Now you want me to share the costs of fixing it. Why should the Australian government put this burden on Australian people when China (for example) is the worst carbon emission producer on the planet ? I’m not scooting around the world in airplanes taking holidays for winter, I can hardly pay for my kids school excursions. I can hardly afford to put enough petrol in my car to get to work and back five days a week. What about the pollution coal fired power stations after putting into the atmosphere. Luckily, I could afford to get enough solar panel to be pretty much off the grid before this cost-of-living crisis came to my doorstep. Sorry mate, I care about the environment, but don’t ask me to share the cost of fixing it. I am struggling to make ends meet for my family as it is’.

    This is the kind of mindset the Coalition may wish to cash in on at the next election. It would mean giving up some inner city seats for the Greens and Teals to fight over and breaking new ground in the Labor party heartland in struggling outer suburban electorates where the Café Latte and smashed avocado those ‘Greenies and Teals’ are fond of is foreign language.

    Using the Labor Government’s emissions reduction target as an example, the Coalition might want to market the idea that (a) these emission reduction targets are unachievable in the first place, (b) government energy policy aimed at supporting those emission reduction targets are shooting up the cost of power, fuel, transport, production etc at an out of control level and (c) the government’s mismanagement of the economy is exacerbating an already overwhelming cost of living crisis in Australian households.

    Solution: Dump emissions reduction target discourse, defer or slow down dealing with the causes of climate change until the immediate effects of climate change on the economy and hip pocket nerve have be adequately redressed and introduce austerity measures to tighten up the economy. Climate change action gets kicked down the road for future generations to deal with, again.

    It seems to me that the ACOSS observation that “it is people with the least resources who are impacted by climate change, first, worst and longest” has not be missed by Coalition election strategists.

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