Polls: Roy Morgan and RedBridge NSW state (open thread)

Rather surprising federal and New South Wales state poll results, plus the latest on a seemingly uneventful state by-election to be held the Saturday after next.

Two disturbances to an otherwise quiet week on the polling front:

• The usual weekly Roy Morgan poll is something of an outlier in recording a 53.5-46.5 lead for Labor, out from 52-48 last week and 51.5-48.5 in favour of the Coalition the week before. Despite this, Labor’s primary vote is actually down half a point to 30.5%, with the Coalition down one to 35%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 15.5% and One Nation up one to 5.5%. We are also told that state breakdowns had Labor ahead 56-44 in New South Wales and 57.5% in Victoria and the Coalition ahead 53-47 in Queensland, which would respectively among to swings of 4.6%, 2.7% and 1.0% to Labor. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1687.

• As reported in the Daily Telegraph, RedBridge Group has a third state poll combining survey waves from February and May to follow on from its earlier results for Victoria and Queensland, this time for New South Wales from a sample of 1376. The result is perhaps surprisingly bleak for Chris Minns’ Labor government, which is credited with a two-partly lead of just 50.5-49.5, compared with its 54.3-45.7 winning margin at the March 2023 election. The primary votes are Labor 35%, compared with 37.0% at the election, Coalition 40%, compared with 35.4%, and Greens 11%, compared with 9.7%. Despite this, 40% separately rate the government’s performance as good or very good compared with 20% for poor and 32% for neither, while “the Liberal-National opposition led by Mark Speakman” scores 19% positive, 21% negative and 41% neither.

Staying in New South Wales, a by-election for the safe Nationals seat of Northern Tablelands will be held on June 22. The Nationals candidate is Brendan Moylan, a Moree solicitor who outgoing member Adam Marshall says was “overwhelmingly” preselected in a vote of around 200 local party members. Labor is not fielding a candidate, with Moylan’s competition consisting of Shooters Fishers and Farmers, the Greens and two independents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

903 thoughts on “Polls: Roy Morgan and RedBridge NSW state (open thread)”

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  1. ALABAMAsays:
    Saturday, June 15, 2024 at 5:32 pm
    Ven at 8.41am
    =====================
    Don’t worry about that picture.
    Woke Sunak will be gone in 3 weeks, followed by weak Olaf Schultz and then weirdo Justin from Canada. Can’t wait for the Canadian election. Goodbye Justin. Piss off.
    ———————
    How is Sunak woke?

  2. Catprog @ #794 Saturday, June 15th, 2024 – 5:04 pm

    C@t:

    Ihope you enjoyed your USA trip as much as I enjoyed mine. (Went over to see the eclipse and fitting in other stuff around it.)

    I really did! I got deep in the weeds of everyday life in the US as I wasn’t staying in hotels. I stayed at my son’s house and in a few Air B’n’Bs. I lived like an ordinary American. And a tourist. I really enjoyed looking at their graffiti as I rode around with my son and his friend. My favourite was, ‘Fuck you thought!’ 😆

  3. Kirsdarke @ #797 Saturday, June 15th, 2024 – 5:24 pm

    Polling from Elabe for the French Legislative election, sample taken on 11-12 June.

    First Round Votes-
    RN: (Marine Le Pen’s Far Right party) 31%
    NFP: (Socialist Left-Green Alliance) 28%
    ENS: (Macron’s Centrist party) 18%
    UDC: (Centre-Right) 9%
    REC: (Far right) 4%
    Others: 10%

    Seat Projections:
    RN: 220-270
    NFP: 150-190
    ENS: 90-130
    UDC: 30-40
    Others: 10-20

    55-35
    Centre + Left of Centre V Right + Fashy Right, if I read the numbers correctly?

  4. Sprocket at 8.48am
    ==================
    Agree with Matt Canavan, let’s get the hell out of Paris.
    What nonsense have we had over the past 20 years……
    Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen, and Paris. What next – the Beijing dialogue.
    It’s all make believe rubbish from loonies who believe in Santa Claus, Easter bunny and the Tooth Fairy.
    Oh well, people believe what they want to believe I suppose. Can’t be stopped. Gotta walk over the top of them I’m afraid.
    , which is what the right is doing.

  5. C@t at 5:43pm

    It’s pretty hard to predict, since the elections are held in 2 rounds, where only the top 2 candidates for each constituency are up for the second round, and they’re 1 week apart, so that’s a bit of extra time for further campaigning to preference harvest from the eliminated candidates.

    EDIT: Unless a candidate gets at least 50% of the vote, but with the votes split like this then very few will be elected like that on the first round.

    But it’s estimates from a French polling outfit that probably have ways of calculating such things, so their eventual seat estimates might very well be what happens. I’m not sure what the French Left think of Macron and vice-versa, but it might go down to individual voters on who they’d prefer if they want a RN representative or not.

  6. The March of the right. I love it
    Forget all about woke Sunak too. BJ betrayed a lot of first time Tory voters with rubbish about removing cars from London, electric bicycles, lockdown parties and closing North sea gas. They didn’t change their lifetime voting patterns to vote for this woke shit. Tories in the U.K. deserve the flogging they will get in 3 weeks. Traitors!

  7. I thought lockdown parties was very much an anti-woke thing? You know, sticking it to the elitist left that order the lockdowns in the first place?

    I think Alabama might need its wiring checked.

  8. As for the French left forming a bloc, what a joke. The commo’s and far left hate Melenchon. Love a left on left fight. So much more fun than right on right.

  9. ALABAMAsays:
    Saturday, June 15, 2024 at 5:55 pm
    The March of the right. I love it
    Forget all about woke Sunak too. BJ betrayed a lot of first time Tory voters with rubbish about removing cars from London, electric bicycles, lockdown parties and closing North sea gas. They didn’t change their lifetime voting patterns to vote for this woke shit. Tories in the U.K. deserve the flogging they will get in 3 weeks. Traitors!
    ———————–
    How is Sunak woke?

    London’s congestion tax came in before Johnson become prime minister and electric bicycles wouldn’t rate in the top 100 issues but the lockdown parties were the start of the end for the conservatives.

  10. No Sprocket at 8.48am. Not excellent. How much carbon generated typing all that drivel. Worse than the carbon drivvel emitted by Boers posts. Think of the environment.

  11. How to sex up the right in Australia.
    Pauline not much chop.
    Palmer and Kelly sounds and look like a blowfish on a boatdeck
    Dutts hasn’t removed the lefties from the LNP. They gotta go., no point having them in your party if they gonna cross the floor. Labor doesn’t put up with it. They got to go, starting with Archer.

  12. ALABAMA
    Dutts hasn’t removed the lefties from the LNP. They gotta go., no point having them in your party if they gonna cross the floor. Labor doesn’t put up with it. They got to go, starting with Archer.
    ————————
    That’s being labor lite.

  13. Sandman at 9.10am
    ====================
    Don’t worry about $100 lamb roasts. We’ll get $900 cheques being sent to Australians soon, some of whom will be deceased. That will pay for 9 lamb roasts, until we can have an election and get rid of this garbage government.

  14. Got the site stirred up tonight WB. sorry.
    Ok, have to backtrack. I now do believe in Santa Claus again because my grandson is into it. But i’ll turn real quick when he’s around 8.

  15. Mavis at 9.34am.
    ============================
    You are obsessed with the U.S. Supreme Court, and their decisions about fertility.
    Please remember, between the time the U.S. Supreme court handed down its repudiation of Roe v Wade, and Jan.3, 2023, Biden had plenty of opportunity to “legislate” women’s reproductive rights. He had control of both the HOR plus the Senate with Harris. He did sweet F.A. , for women’s repro rights. Fuck all, and then he lost control of the lower house.
    He had a golden window to do something if he wanted to.
    Biden is a loser to Dems, but the gift which keeps on giving to his enemies.

  16. P1’s best tory boyfriend out campaigning against firmed renewable power today.

    An 3gigawatt offshore windfarm for the Illawarra.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/wollongong-s-wind-era-powers-up-despite-blowback-from-opponents-20240615-p5jm09.html

    I’m sure that P1 will have something negative to say about Bowen and Labor.

    Constance and the cynical game being played by the LNP? … not so much (other than the usual refrain ‘Lib/Lab: same same’).

  17. ALABAMA
    Agree with Matt Canavan, let’s get the hell out of Paris.
    __________________________________________
    L-NP has a good week, Canavan is certain to blow it up Friday evening.
    The reality is, until US, UK, Europe wake up, Australia has to pay lip service to netzero2050 and fudge it.
    Labor want to insist on being ideologues rather than realists, they need a spell on the Opposition bench.

  18. Rossmcg at 4.32pm
    ===============
    Another snob comment from a left wing anti worker snob.
    You think the workers are stupid sheep do you.
    It’s the workers on the farms who listen to the Boss.
    People generally vote for their jobs. They’re not sheep, you snob Ross.

  19. Taylormade at 2.30pm
    ================
    Let them pretend. They live in a bubble surrounding themselves with people who all agree with each other. It’s like an edition of ‘their ABC”, which should be sold off by the way but who would buy it?

  20. Kos Samaras
    @KosSamaras
    The conflict in Gaza won’t politically unfold in the suburbs and electorates where red paint has been visibly deployed. Instead, it will affect Labor’s vote in areas of Melbourne and Sydney that appear calm on the surface but are simmering beneath.

    This unrest has been building for 20 years. Many young Muslims have grown up in a post-9/11 Australian society, feeling like outsiders their entire lives. I briefly explain the psephological impact in this article. Insights via dozens of interviews that we have conducted with young Muslim Australians.

    It’s complex. While these voters might support an independent, it won’t benefit the Liberal Party, whom they deeply dislike. So, while there’s a risk of more Fowler-type results, everything would have to align perfectly for Labor to lose these seats. Of course, Labor could make a misstep—something it has shown itself quite capable of in the past.

    https://thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2024/06/15/labor-faces-the-greens-over-gaza
    5:34 PM · Jun 15, 2024
    ·
    6,015
    Views
    https://twitter.com/KosSamaras/status/1801880997405069552

    Yep

  21. Goodthinker at 6.40pm
    ==================
    Europe has already woken up. Happened last weekend.
    U.K. is next, U.S. in November and hopefully Albo next year, if not earlier. People are sick to death of all this climate, global boiling rubbish. There are a few loonies into it, well they can just shove it up their jumpers, and believe what they want to believe, like me now believing in Santa.

  22. While walking the dog this afternoon, I was thinking about renewables and the opportunities to export power to Singapore and Indonesia.

    I then started speculating on the possibility of Singapore installing nuclear power. It’s not a big island, and water might be a problem, but I’m sure they could fit one in. I do have doubts about dependability (reactors do need downtime).

    However, it occurred to me that a nuclear plant anywhere close to Singapore might well represent an existential threat to the country. I think modern nuclear plants are safe. But, nothing can ever be completely safe. If a nuclear plant suffers a serious accident that contaminates the surrounding area, large countries can cope. Japan and the USSR were able to move people out of the danger zone and settle them elsewhere. Sure, it’s bad for the people that have to move, but it’s not risking the whole country.

    For Singapore though, such an accident on the island, or even nearby in Indonesia or Malaysia might well make the country uninhabitable. Would nuclear energy be worth the risk to Singapore? How would they react if their neighbours started building close by?

  23. Rex at 6.57pm
    ===================
    The conflict in Gaza, including red paint smeared over the PM’s office and other filth, needs to be dealt with via horsewhipping of these 19 year old loonies, then for them to be taken to the nearest ALP branch for further horsewhipping and then down to a police station to be charged. Bloody disgrace what has been going on outside Albo’s, Pliberseks and Khalil’s office. These are the same hysterics who glue themselves to roads and make arses of themselves in Flinders St Melbourne. There should be some young labor men who could give them a royal flogging and restore law and order to electorate offices. I don’t like labor, but this is shit what is going on. 11 weeks now. Has to stop.

  24. Has A_E actually changed his tune on east coast offshore wind ?

    I seem to recall the squealing of despair about such a proposition that it would destroy Labor’s vote because of the view from the balcony out to sea…

  25. ALABAMAsays:
    Saturday, June 15, 2024 at 6:11 pm
    How to sex up the right in Australia.
    _______________________________
    Should I book the prayer room for you ALABAMA???

  26. It was truly a pathetic sight tonight on 9 News at 6pm. The fossil-fueled anti renewable energy, but tha whales! group, looking like the bunch of South Coast retired Liberal voters worried about their property values that they undoubtedly are, boosted by sad sack Andrew Constance, were a feeble, in numbers and to look at, motley crew, complaining about the offshore wind farm announced today by the Energy Minister, Chris Bowen.

    They should just give up the ghost. We know what they are and who they are. You can’t stop progress!

  27. C@tmommasays:
    Saturday, June 15, 2024 at 7:24 pm
    It was truly a pathetic sight tonight on 9 News at 6pm. The fossil-fueled anti renewable energy, but tha whales! group, looking like the bunch of South Coast retired Liberal voters worried about their property values that they undoubtedly are, boosted by sad sack Andrew Constance, were a feeble, in numbers and to look at, motley crew, complaining about the offshore wind farm announced today by the Energy Minister, Chris Bowen.

    They should just give up the ghost. We know what they are and who they are. You can’t stop progress!
    ==================================================

    Considering when you look out to sea there you’ll be lucky see a wind turbine. Unlike the line up of container ships that are always there and generally much closer to shore.

  28. C@tmomma @ #833 Saturday, June 15th, 2024 – 7:24 pm

    It was truly a pathetic sight tonight on 9 News at 6pm. The fossil-fueled anti renewable energy, but tha whales! group, looking like the bunch of South Coast retired Liberal voters worried about their property values that they undoubtedly are, boosted by sad sack Andrew Constance, were a feeble, in numbers and to look at, motley crew, complaining about the offshore wind farm announced today by the Energy Minister, Chris Bowen.

    They should just give up the ghost. We know what they are and who they are. You can’t stop progress!

    I noticed they claimed there are no offshore wind farms

    https://www.equinor.com/energy/hywind-scotland

  29. Dress up day today in London with the Trooping the Colour.

    All the pomp and ceremony.

    Princess Catherine appearance.

    Greatest show on earth !

    Lol.

  30. Bystander at 7.03pm
    ==================
    Israel has tried for years to get along with their neighbours, but it is difficult with missiles flying over the border bombing their Israeli settlements and children. It must also be a nightmare for Palestinian parents trying to bring their children up with tanks and guns everywhere. This has to come to an end. I believe Gaza is over and any possibility of a 2 state solution is finished. I would like to see the world powers create a humanitarian corridor in the north eastern part of Egypt, and then make amends to sort out the border mess created in 1948. If border adjustments are required, then so be it. If Palestinians are no longer welcome in greater Israel, then the big mouth western nations need to look at absorbing those populations into their countries or facilitate repatriation into neighbouring countries, and finance it. Forcing people to ‘get along’ doesn’t work. Look at the current state of the U.S.
    Like most of us on this site, we have watched decades of hate unfold in the M.E., generation after generation. Forcing everyone to get along simply doesn’t work. Watching it is bad enough, but put youself in the position of those living the reality.

  31. C@t at 7.24pm
    ===================
    A decade a so or go it would have been a motley bunch of labor voters carrying on about the same thing.
    How things change quickly.
    Save the whales, wasn’t it.
    Pathetic hypocrite. I’ve done my meme in lower case too. What do you prefer.

  32. Entropy @ #835 Saturday, June 15th, 2024 – 7:29 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Saturday, June 15, 2024 at 7:24 pm
    It was truly a pathetic sight tonight on 9 News at 6pm. The fossil-fueled anti renewable energy, but tha whales! group, looking like the bunch of South Coast retired Liberal voters worried about their property values that they undoubtedly are, boosted by sad sack Andrew Constance, were a feeble, in numbers and to look at, motley crew, complaining about the offshore wind farm announced today by the Energy Minister, Chris Bowen.

    They should just give up the ghost. We know what they are and who they are. You can’t stop progress!
    ==================================================

    Considering when you look out to sea there you’ll be lucky see a wind turbine. Unlike the line up of container ships that are always there and generally much closer to shore.

    Funny how they never mention that. 😐

  33. Aqualung,
    The thing that gets me about the Anti Wind Power mob, is that they take their cues from one of the most ignorant men to ever hold real power, Donald Trump! I guess maybe it’s because he has a way of making the ridiculous sound plausible.

  34. Chris Bowen isn’t liked.
    Everyone knows it.
    Where is Jason Clare? Wrong faction.

    Anyway, enough climate change rubbish. What else can we discuss. What is causing the rise of the right in Europe, or perhaps the outcome of the U.S. election, especially the Senate where there are a lot of Democrat seats up for grabs this cycle. It’s the 2018 Senators up for election this time. Yes, I know my maths. Let’s start with West Virginia.

  35. @Alabama

    I think that when your grandson grows up that you shouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t visit you much. Willingly, anyway.

  36. https://thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2024/06/15/labor-faces-the-greens-over-gaza
    5:34 PM · Jun 15, 2024
    Interesting article, the tone of the interviewees indicates they’re expecting an election is looming.
    In other news, I’ve located the last of the incandescent globes and inserted it in the reading lamp.
    But here’s the thing:
    i’ve completely forgotten why Turnbull banned them while Environment Minister in 2007.
    Yeah, it was something to do with saving the Planet, but what exactly?
    Can anyone help?

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