The three-weekly YouGov federal poll records little change on last time, with two-party preferred steady at 50-50 from primary votes of Labor 30% (steady), Coalition 38% (steady), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation 8% (steady). Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are also unchanged at 41% approval and 53% disapproval, but Peter Dutton is down four on approval to 38% and up three on disapproval to 51%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 47-36, out from 44-37. The poll also finds an 84-16 split in favour of the proposition that workers have a right to strike for better wages and job security. It was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1500.
There are also two state voting intention results from RedBridge Group, both combining two waves of polling in February and May:
• As reported in the Herald Sun, a poll for Victoria credits Labor with lead of 55-45, out from 54-46 in the last such poll in March, contrasting with the recent bi-monthly Resolve Strategic result which suggested the Coalition had moved into the lead. The primary votes are Labor 35% (down one), Coalition 38% (steady) and Greens 14% (up four). Kevin Bonham on Twitter notes that these primary votes suggest a 53-47 result based on a crude application of flows from the last election, but pollster Kos Samaras says the cumulative “others” pool has moved leftwards because “most of the right-wing minor party votes have shifted to the Coalition”. A full accounting of the results from the pollster should be along shortly. (UPDATE: The pollster has published the full result together with a full account of its “others” pool).
• The second poll such poll is for Queensland, and it maintains Labor’s run of diabolical polling there ahead of an election in October. The Liberal National Party is credited with a two-party lead of 57-43 from primary votes of Labor 28%, LNP 47% and Greens 12%. The poll has a sample of 880, and is somewhat at odds with a union-commissioned uComms polling provided last week to The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column, conducted on May 14 from a sample of 2400, which found Labor had gone from 26.9% to 30.0% from an earlier poll April, while the LNP had gone from 35.1% to 33.7%, the Greens from 13.0% to 10.9% and One Nation from 10.0% to 5.2%, with undecided down from 16% to 10%.
Latest news related to the various federal redistributions in progress, following last week’s publication of draft boundaries for Victoria and Western Australia:
• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the proposed new federal boundaries for New South Wales, which will involve the abolition of one of the state’s 47 seats, will be published “around lunchtime” on Friday.
• Suggestions the redistribution proposal for Victoria may have strengthened the Liberals in Kooyong prompted a flurry of speculation concerning a comeback by Josh Frydenberg, with Josh Butler of The Guardian reporting on divided opinions within the party. Seemingly the only one to go on the record was soon-to-retire Queensland member Karen Andrews, who spoke approvingly of the idea, which would potentially have been helpful to a Frydenberg comeback given one of the chief obstacles is the optics involved in deposing an already preselected female candidate, Amelia Hamer. Antony Green was initially invoked as having calculated the seat had been strengthened for the Liberals, which many had taken as read given blue-ribbon Toorak was part of the area to be gained from abolished Higgins, but he shortly clarified it was not possible to infer independent member Monique Ryan’s level of support in areas where she was not on the ballot paper in 2022. The matter was shortly resolved in any case when Frydenberg declared his support for Hamer. Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reported Frydenberg had commissioned Freshwater Strategy to poll the seat “several times”, with party sources saying the results “didn’t indicate he’d win”.
• The proposed abolition of Higgins has prompted suggestions defeated former Liberal member Katie Allen, who had again been preselected for the seat, will instead contest Chisholm, despite the party already having a candidate for that seat in Monash councillor Theo Zographos. Josh Ferguson of The Australian reports the party will challenge the abolition of Higgins in its submission in response to the proposed new boundaries. The report further says a political foundation established by the seat’s former member, Peter Costello, to help fund campaigning in the seat “is being eyed by Liberal bean counters to help stave off a feared collapse in fundraising capacity for the party”. A Liberal source is quoted saying the fund was established to ensure the money “was not ultimately seized by a factional rival”.
Entropy @ #647 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 5:19 pm
True. I would be all for subsidizing nuclear if it could be built in time to be any use in combating climate change. It can in some countries, but not in Australia.
C@tmomma @ #649 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 5:21 pm
Bandt did not say or even imply “Same Same” – you did.
It is a very lazy way of dismissing valid criticism 🙁
Costello always lacked the balls for the top role. He could have become leader in 1994 when it was a case of Downer or him to take the leadership. He deferred to Downer because he wasn’t willing to take the role of leader at that stage.
When Downer blew his leadership up with the joke about domestic violence in 1995, he could have stood.
There were numerous times when Howard was struggling he could have made a push but never did.
And then in September 2007 he was offered the job by Howard but clearly could see it was too late. And then he decided not to become LOTO…
He was the great “never was” of the Liberal party.
It is the same thing here, he could have toughed it out but it was just easier to go.
David Rowe!
And the original, from an earlier David (Napoleon crossing the Alps):
Lars Von Trier:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 5:02 pm
Personal indicia is secondary to the 2PP. If Labor’s PV gets below 30, then I think there’s cause for concern; but even then, the Teals offer a big buffer – not lost on Labor. And then you’ve got to factor in Dutton’s antecedents: he’s a former drug squad cop, and even worse, a former Queensland drug squad cop. The Tory & Country parties really can’t improve their position other than in WA.
This is more like Dutton and his extremists
https://www.etsy.com/au/listing/763264391/night-king-winter-game-of-thrones
Wow! Massive penalty for Costello. The shareholders musn’t be happy.
meher baba – We don’t know what the parachute looked like. It might be not be that bad for him.
An informative discussion about how Congressional Republicans are crafting a law to get Trump out of trouble in his state-based cases. Also what are the prospects of jail time for Trump when Judge Merchan hands down his sentence on July 11:
https://youtu.be/emd9ZjGqoUM?si=3oDOh_qK5eUIMi7c
Mavis
This is a sensible take. In such a divided polity, the best you can hope to do is keep pushing forward with your plans.
A change in leader will not appease anyone in this strongly divided and angry electorate.
Rex Douglas @ #658 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 5:38 pm
‘Dutton’s Nuclear Winter’ is an appropriate caption.
Mavis,
There is a 1-1.5% swing baked in on both primary and preferential vote.
If Minority Govt is what you seek (or what you will settle for) then there is no cause for concern atm. Albo meh etc etc
If you want or hope for something more then the conclusion is something different is required.
Its a bit like if you do nothing your going to get a bare pass mark of 52% if you are prepared to study harder, try some changes you could get 75%?
I expect Labor will get a swing back to some degree as we get closer to the election. I doubt too many folks want nuclear or Dutton.
Victoria @ #648 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 5:13 pm
He needed to go. You can’t preside over a raft of toxic male culture scandals in your organisation, allegedly shirtfront a journalist and think life can just carry on as usual.
Byeeee!
Lost the posters name , doh
Ben Raue made some interesting comments on ABC’s 7.30 a week or so ago about the options for reducing NSW’s seat number to 46. Without putting words into his mouth, I think he noted that two seats could be abolished.
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The language on the relevant website is pretty clear that ONE seat in NSW will be abolished, reducing NSW quota from 47 to 46 seats I would be very surprised that ” two seats could be abolished” We lose a seat in the HOR, down from 151 to 150 after WA gained one
and Victoria lost one {Higgins].
You must have misheard Ben Raue on the ABC .
Dutton has agreed that Nuclear Power won’t be built before 2040.
At least 5 more elections and 2 or 3 changes of Government until then.
So, it’s an aspiration.
Like 43/30 and NetZero/50.
davidwh @ #663 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 5:48 pm
They may not want Dutton (who would?) but they don’t object to nuclear ….
https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/charts/australia-using-nuclear-power-to-generate-energy/
Is nuclear a realistic option? No. But even so, I think this number will grow as the consequences of climate breakdown continue to get worse … and worse … and worse … 🙁
And I note 9Fax is sending in a woman to clean up the mess. Just like they did with the RBA, Qantas, and Telstra.
I wonder if John Pesutto is feeling even more nervous now… ?
Ben Raue’s point would have been that two seats might be abolished, one north of the harbour and one south, and a new one created on Sydney’s outskirts.
By “two seats being abolished”, I think meaning is that two existing seats would cease to exist in their current form and a new seat created in an area with growth.
If the seats didn’t have names and existing members it wouldn’t matter, but because there are names of electorates and sitting members people get attached to them.
On Costello, I often wonder if the Libs do smug look workshops or if it is just natural for those with a deep held assurance from God and/or their genetic inheritance that they are truly ‘born to rule’. Morrison had that same smarmy smuirk, but Latham had it too come to think of it. Costello will move on without a moment of reflection. Has he been formally charged on that camera man assault ? I didnt bother following that story.
P1
Do those respondents have an understanding the costs involved ?
Rex – Why? Costello is not making a comeback any time soon and certainly not at state level – that political reserve grade.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 5:39 pm
.. Also what are the prospects of jail time for Trump when Judge Merchan hands down his sentence on July 11:
Zero… it will be stayed on appeal, appeal will take a year+
Then the prospect of a serving POTUS being locked up.. Zero
William Bowesays:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 5:59 pm
Ben Raue’s point would have been that two seats might be abolished, one north of the harbour and one south, and a new one created on Sydney’s outskirts.
–
Ah, thank you William. I am happily corrected.
Sandman – There is not an assault charge there. And certainly not one that would get a conviction.
Douglas and Milko:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 5:40 pm
Mavis
Yes, shades of the US polity – angry! Let’s hope that we don’t follow the same path. But we could, given the current LOTO. The Tories knew this when trotting out
Frydenberg, who quickly withdrew his candidature.
__________________________________
Costello lacks a ticker. No loss. Looking at him, he’s had one too many long lunches.
All together now
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vpvvjK8Qeg4
BSF
The federal Libs see their Vic division as a basket case and no doubt that influences their federal chances.
They will be all in behind Costello if he was willing to reform the Vic division.
I posted an opinion piece last weekend that suggested there is a good chance Trump could be jailed. I will try to find it.
Same goes for Frydenberg.
Rex – He doesn’t want to play down there. No top grade player who had a long career in the major leagues wants to try and lead a rag tag team of losers in the junior league against a massively superior team. Australian politics is not a Hollywood kids film.
Found it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/04/trump-sentence-prison-merchan/
FWIW I don’t believe he will be locked up. Then again I never thought he’d be found guilty, and certainly not on all charges. Also worth noting that my anticipated mass protests and violent uproar should Trump be found guilty didn’t arise.
I’m also starting to lean towards Trump being re-elected, by which point he will be able to make all his impending legal troubles disappear, if what we read this morning about Team Trump planning an extreme overhaul of the presidential power is true.
I can’t believe how much I’ve posted today. So it’s goodnight from him:
https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=two+ronnies+it%27s+goonight+from+him&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:1d8f544f,vid:FemPtuZkpSc,st:0
Mavissays:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 5:16 pm
Entropy:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 5:01 pm
You are I think a relatively new contributor to this site. In my view, it’s better to state your argument, without feeling the need to get personal, exampled by your response to FUBAR, at 4.51 pm.
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Thanks for the advice, though i think the snark i gave FUBAR, for what i considered dodgy and factually unsupported posts. Was relatively mild, compared to the snark i have received from him, when he didn’t like some of my posts.
Are you suggesting there are different rules that new comers must adhere to?. I know when i first posted here as “What goes around comes around” and had only done around about 10 posts. This is some of the feedback i got (below). I think you need either very thick skin or the ability to fire some snark back to survive here though. I had no interest in being a punching bag, so i fire back at times. At those who have the tendency to do the same to me.
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Pueosays:
Sunday, December 3, 2023 at 1:56 pm
What goes around comes around: Blatherbot 2.0?
An AIBot would have awareness of punctuation.
—————————————————–
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, December 3, 2023 at 3:43 pm
I prefer the Sokrates brand of crazy to the w.g.a.c.a brand of crazy on the lehrmann case.
The seat of Higgins that got abolished in Victoria was at one time held by the Howard government’s long serving treasurer Peter Costello, and former prime ministers Harold Holt and John Gorton.
Redistribution Committee’s must not need to or have to take into account significant people who was a member of a seat they are going to ditch.
The seat of Higgins that got abolished in Victoria was at one time held by the Howard government’s long serving treasurer Peter Costello, and former prime ministers Harold Holt and John Gorton.
Redistribution Committee’s must not need to or have to take into account significant people who were a member of a seat they are going to ditch.
BSF
Premier of Victoria is a very powerful position in the big scheme of things.
Player Onesays:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 5:27 pm
Entropy @ #647 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 5:19 pm
Player Onesays:
Sunday, June 9, 2024 at 5:07 pm
Entropy @ #630 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 4:51 pm
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FUBAR was implying if nuclear was subsidised it would be as cheap as any of the others. Which is total rot. If they are all subsidised to the same degree. Renewables would still be cheapest, followed by fossil fuels and still a long way behind those nuclear.
True. I would be all for subsidizing nuclear if it could be built in time to be any use in combating climate change. It can in some countries, but not in Australia.
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Yes, i agree nuclear is needed in some countries. We are lucky we don’t need it though as we can do everything with renewables. Which are far cheaper too. Though if a extremely cheap and safe nuclear option did get invented. That was economically on par with renewables, i wouldn’t be against it as part of our energy mix. Though currently nothing comes close to that.
Yes, and just like Liz Truss after Boris Johnson was sacked. Oh wait….
Michael Cohen was sentenced to 3 years jail for just being the henchman and facilitator of Trump’s crimes. Why shouldn’t Trump also be sentenced to a jail term for being the instigator?
Sceptic @ #677 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 6:02 pm
Wrong. State Court and state-based judge doing the sentencing. Feds can’t override it in any way. Unless the Republicans take the House, Presidency and the Senate. Do you really think that’s going to happen? I’m sceptical.
Besides, Judge Merchan conducted the case impeccably and the Defense of Trump was terrible. There can be very few, if any, bases for Appeal. Though they’ll try and conjure some up. Also, do you really believe a NY Appeals Court will try and give aid and comfort to Trump?
Rex Douglas @ #673 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 6:01 pm
Probably not. Do they have an understanding of the real costs of fossil fuels? Probably not.
This is what we expect our governments to deal with.
This is why we are being so badly served by the duopoly.
C@tmomma @ #697 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 6:27 pm
And Trump has all those contempt of court violations against him. Merchan even threatened jail time at one point during the trial to stop him from constantly reoffending.
Abandoning 43%/2030 will require diplomacy, which Australia is good at.
Meanwhile, Australia has plenty of Gas.
At some point soon, the Labor Government has got to call a halt to it’s suicide note to the Australian people and borrow Dutton’s policies.
B. S. Fairman @ #653 Sunday, June 9th, 2024 – 3:31 pm
I’ve got no time for Costello but having the self awareness to know you aren’t leadership material doesn’t equate to lacking balls. If only some other pretenders who became PM were as honest with themselves we would be be better off now.
The judiciary tends to be tougher on solicitors etc who are found guilty of crimes. There is no certainty on what sentence Trump will receive assuming no successful appeal.
Oh well Costello is out. I wonder if we could get Julie back.
Seadog – But he wanted to be PM, he just never wanted to fight for it, he wanted it on a silver platter.