Polls: Essential Research, Roy Morgan and more (open thread)

One pollster finds undecided voters jumping off the fence, another finds a Labor slump last week was a one-off, and others yet offer insights on international affairs and things in general.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll has all the main players up on the primary vote, with the Coalition up two to 36%, Labor up one to 32% and the Greens recovering the three points they lost last time to return to 13%. Room is made for this by a two-point drop in the undecided component to 4% and a three point drop for One Nation to 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor and the Coalition tied on 48%, with the balance undecided, after the Coalition led 47% to 46% last time. The monthly leadership ratings record little change for Anthony Albanese, steady on 43% approval and down one on disapproval to 47%, while Peter Dutton is down three on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 42%.

An occasional reading of national mood records a slight improvement on April, with 34% thinking the country headed on the right track, up two, compared with 49% for the wrong track, down one. Also featured are a series of questions on artificial intelligence and one on the impact of large technology companies, with 47% thinking them mostly negative for young people compared with 19% for positive, and 68% supporting an increase in the age limit on social media platforms from 13 to 16. Sixty-two per cent supported making hate speech a criminal offence with only 16% opposed, and 50% supported a weekend a month of national service for eighteen year olds consisting of paid full-time military placement, with 25% opposed, reducing to 46% and 26% for unpaid volunteer work. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1160.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll reverses a dip for Labor last week, their primary vote up two-and-a-half points to 31% with the Coalition down a point to 36%, the Greens down one to 14% and One Nation down one-and-a-half points to 4.5%. Labor now leads 52-48 on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, after trailing 51.5-48.5 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1579.

Also out this week is the Lowy Institute’s annual poll focusing on international issues, which affirms last year’s finding that Japan, the United Kingdom and France are trusted to act responsibly in the world, the United States, India and Indonesia a little less so, and China and Russia not at all. Joe Biden’s net rating turned negative, 46% expressing confidence, down thirteen on a year ago, and 50% lack of confidence, up twelve. Enthusiasm for Volodomyr Zelenskyy was off its earlier high, confidence down twelve to 60% and lack of confidence up seven to 29%, though this notably compares with 7% and 88% for Vladimir Putin, while Xi Zinping was at 12% and 75%. Fifty-six per cent rated the government as doing a good job on foreign policy compared with 41% for poor. The survey was conducted March 4 to 17 from a sample of 2028.

JWS Research’s quarterly-or-so True Issues issue salience report finds little change in the most important issues since February, with cost of living one of five issues nominated by 80% of respondents, well ahead of health on 58% and housing and interest rates on 55%. Nineteen per cent rated that the economy was heading in the right direction, unchanged on February, compared with 40% for the wrong direction, up one. An index score of the Albanese government’s performance records a two-point improvement to 47% after its lowest result to date in February.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,184 thoughts on “Polls: Essential Research, Roy Morgan and more (open thread)”

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  1. Rex Douglassays:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 9:44 am
    MEDIA RELEASE | Zero royalties charged on $111 billion in gas salesAus Institute research has found that 73% of gas exported from WA attracts zero royalty payments, effectively giving a public resource to multinational gas corporations for freehttps://t.co/nOAFC4Qv0N#auspol— Australia Institute (@TheAusInstitute) June 3, 2024

    This is either ignorance or deliberate deception – some would say lying.

    Only State Governments can collect royalties – that’s in the Constitution. The gas for the LNG exported is not coming from State land or waters and is therefore not subject to a Royalties regime – by law. That is why the PRRT system exists – it as an alternative to Royalties.

    Why are they not recommending a Referendum on Royalties?

  2. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 1:03 pm

    Looking good for interest rate cuts.

    That isn’t an interpretation I have seen from any professional in the field.

  3. FUBARsays:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 12:40 pm
    The GDP figures are terrible.

    Nominal GDP Growth of 1.1%

    GDP Price growth of 3.5%

    Real GDP fell -2.4%.

    Stagflation is a very real possibility.
    ======================================================

    What rot, when Morrison lost Government in 2022 inflation was at 6.8% now down to 3.6%. While GDP was at 3.6% now at 3.5%. We were far closer to experiencing stagflation in May 2022 under Morrison than we are now.

  4. ‘FUBAR says:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 1:08 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 1:03 pm

    Looking good for interest rate cuts.

    That isn’t an interpretation I have seen from any professional in the field.’
    ————————
    Fall coming in the employment rate, growth flat… Liberal inflation rate halved…
    …the Reserve Bank got what it wanted.
    Now for their soft landing.

  5. Rex Douglas
    If you listen carefully you can hear the squealing of corporates as their profits dry up….

    If profits dry up, the squealing is going to be far more wide than just the corporates. Small business are already suffering.

  6. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 1:07 pm

    If you listen carefully you can hear the squealing of corporates as their profits dry up….

    You think that’s good? That will cost people their jobs. Why does that make you happy?

    This is exactly why not to vote for the Greens – Watermelons who don’t give a flying fuck about humans except themselves.

  7. FUBARsays:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 1:15 pm
    Entropysays:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 1:08 pm

    GDP growth is not now at 3.5%.
    =================================================

    Sorry i miss read your figures. Current GDP growth is 1.1%.

  8. The federal Lib/nat and their propaganda media units , know the politics are changing and not in their favour

    Dutton’s time as leader of the federal Liberal party is getting pass embattled , to near catastrophic

  9. Why would a company sack people if they’re still profitable ?

    They can suck it up like most others who are under the pump.

  10. Janet Albrechtsen puffs Josh in today’s Oz, P13, suggesting that Katie Allen has a better claim on Kooyong than Amelia Hamer if the draft redistribution is confirmed. In other words, reopen Preselection in Kooyong.
    I would say that if Josh ran as an anti Dutton Liberal in Kooyong, he might do alright.
    Though whether Opposition Leader Joshor P.M. Josh, Chalmers will will scrub the floor with him, imo.

  11. Badthinker says:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 1:28 pm

    Janet Albrechtsen puffs Josh…’
    ———————-
    Was she holding her nose?

  12. Badthinkersays:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 1:28 pm
    Janet Albrechtsen puffs Josh in today’s Oz, P13, suggesting that Katie Allen has a better claim on Kooyong than Amelia Hamer if the draft redistribution is confirmed. In other words, reopen Preselection in Kooyong.
    I would say that if Josh ran as an anti Dutton Liberal in Kooyong, he might do alright.
    Though whether Opposition Leader Joshor P.M. Josh, Chalmers will will scrub the floor with him, imo.
    =======================================================

    Vote for a Dutton Government in Kooyong so you can get an anti-Dutton member in his Government. Your logic never ceases to amaze me. How stupid do you actually think the voters are?.

  13. Rex Douglassays:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 1:28 pm

    Why would a company sack people if they’re still profitable ?

    They can suck it up like most others who are under the pump.

    What’s your acceptable ROI?

    Should they just ignore any contractual requirements from their lenders?

  14. Good company management would involve being prepared for down times without having the need to sack people. It’s not that difficult given Australia is fairly consistent and stable in terms of a Govt duopoly.

  15. The Greens have announced that one of the excellent outcomes of a flat economy is that people are cutting back on unnecessary consumption, thus reducing their CO2 emissions footprint.

    They have also called for conspicuous look-at-moi tourism consumers to stop cooking the planet.

    The Greens have called for an instant grounding of the airline industry in order to immediately send the emissions graph down by 5%.

    The Greens have have announced the annual cull rate to ensure that the domestic livestock industry conforms with Zero Net Forty. (There has been a major fracas between the Greens and the Animal Justice Party on this policy.).

    To tidy up loose ends the Greens have demanded a total ban in irrigated ganja because it is helping to wreck the MDB and they are going to hold their breath until this policy is implemented by the Labor Government.

  16. Gormless Greens at it Again!

    ‘Apartment towers up to 75 storeys proposed for Woolloongabba to alleviate housing crisis opposed by Greens’

  17. Yesterday the Greens were bragging about delaying housing funding.
    Today the Greens are bragging about building houses and about blocking building houses.

  18. Who is providing legal advice to the eSafety Commissioner?

    You’d think that they’d only go to court with a very solid case, but no.

  19. Boerwarsays:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 2:15 pm
    Gormless Greens at it Again!

    ‘Apartment towers up to 75 storeys proposed for Woolloongabba to alleviate housing crisis opposed by Greens’

    .

    I’m not a Green but I’m with Rex on this one. I think they’ll be just another bloody eyesore and we have enough of those already.

  20. Watching the Industry department Senate Estimates, an observation is that Liberal Moderates are nasty people.

    Andrew Bragg and Dean Smith are shining a positive light on the Dutton Hard Right – at least from their demeanour in this forum

  21. ‘The Australian economy is “very weak” yet Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock says the domestic situation does not fit the characterisation of stagflation.

    Despite expectations of a sluggish March quarter growth outcome on Wednesday, Ms Bullock said the central bank was “not ruling anything in or out” on interest rates and would continue to respond to new data as it came in.

    In the 1970s, the Australian economy and others around the world experienced a period known as stagflation where growth was stagnant and inflation was above-average.’

    https://www.inqld.com.au/news/business-news/2024/06/05/economy-is-very-week-but-no-concerns-about-stagflation-says-reserve-boss

  22. The Greens want more social housing units in the 75 story towers, because those are their voters. Unsure whether they mean the suburb of Woolloongabba, the rocky mound between Annerley Rd and Ipswich Rd, which is solid rock, or the BCC Ward

    The Gabba

    which follows the river from the Storey Bridge to Dutton Park?

  23. It really feels that we are in the seventies again. More strikes, trade barriers going up, gold up, a war here and there, a move to the right and more nationalistic, new geo-political blocks being formed, old ones becoming more irrelevant (UN, WHO, WTO etc), countries investing more in weapons acquisition and manufacturing and more restriction on movement of people.

    Interesting times.

    Quite a few people asked for the end of neo-liberalism.

    Well, it is here.

    But can we skip the colour scheme.

  24. Lars Von Trier @ #77 Wednesday, June 5th, 2024 – 12:06 pm

    Economy grew at 0.1%

    An election is needed – nothing is going to change economically in the next 11 months. The govt botched economic policy – rates went up too slowly and now ours will come down much more slowly than the rest of the world.

    It’s time for the Australian people in their wisdom to decide the way forward and with whom.

    Fart on, L’Arse.

    Why do you bother? You are a standing joke!

  25. The Greens are currently trying to block several housing developments. Fact.

    This is at the same time as the Greens are screaming about housing shortages. Fact.

    The Greens blocked Labor’s housing spend for six months. They are now dancing around screaming that Labor hasn’t started building a house. Fact. Fact.

    The Greens pretend that their blocks and delays do not matter in the real world. Wrong. In the real world delays do matter.

    Labor builds.
    Liberals wreck.
    Greens block.

  26. A reminder to Bw. The greens are trying to have the terms of the development amended to require a higher percentage of the dwellings to be affordable.

    They aren’t trying to block it for being an eyesore.

  27. If the NDIS is really going to cost $100 billion a year just can it and up DSP spend by $100 billion because people with a disability can clearly manage their own money better than the government can.

  28. ‘Voice Endeavour says:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 3:30 pm

    A reminder to Bw. The greens are trying to have the terms of the development amended to require a higher percentage of the dwellings to be affordable.

    They aren’t trying to block it for being an eyesore.’
    —————————————
    No Gouldian Finches this time? No lowering the tone of the NIMBY neighbourhood? No traffic problems? No nasty windmills ruining the view? No koalas?
    There’s always something when it comes to the Greens astroturfing local housing developments.
    And there’s always something for the Greens to stunt about blocking or delaying while shrieking ‘Look at me! I am relevant!’

  29. Albanese gave the Greens a well-deserved pizzling in QT today for spreading misinformation, for being present and tacitly condoning protests in which electorate staff are abused, harrassed and assaulted and by being present when electorate offices are being damaged.

    The Greens care for the rights of workers, the rights of men and women to have safety in the workplace just like they care for the truth.

  30. The claim that the Greens are only trying to get more social housing in the Gabba development is false. This is her statement:

    “without adequate infrastructure to accommodate the larger population.”

    And she’s opposed to “Luxe” development.

    The ridiculous claim was also made that building more housing doesn’t solve the housing crisis.

    She fails to suggest why developers, who take massive commercial risks, should have their profits dramatically cut to provide social housing. If Governments want social housing then they should pay for it at market rates – or do the development themselves.

  31. Voice Endeavour says:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 3:30 pm

    Are they proposing to reimburse the developer for foregone profit?

  32. ‘Mexicanbeemer says:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 3:33 pm

    If the NDIS is really going to cost $100 billion a year just can it and up DSP spend by $100 billion because people with a disability can clearly manage their own money better than the government can.’
    ———————
    People with a disability already have 100% control over their own money. They can manage that as badly or as well as they choose.

    Taxpayers’ money? That is something else.

    It is clear that the Liberals stood aside and looked the other way while a tidal wave of spivs, crooks, liars, sleeve tuggers and Liberal fellow-travelers got set in the NDIS.

    It is going to take a monstrous effort to clean out the Liberals and Nationals filth from the NDIS – the worst of the worst – preying on disabled people. Scum.

    Fortunately, Shorten is up for the clean up.

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