Polls: Essential Research, Roy Morgan and more (open thread)

One pollster finds undecided voters jumping off the fence, another finds a Labor slump last week was a one-off, and others yet offer insights on international affairs and things in general.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll has all the main players up on the primary vote, with the Coalition up two to 36%, Labor up one to 32% and the Greens recovering the three points they lost last time to return to 13%. Room is made for this by a two-point drop in the undecided component to 4% and a three point drop for One Nation to 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor and the Coalition tied on 48%, with the balance undecided, after the Coalition led 47% to 46% last time. The monthly leadership ratings record little change for Anthony Albanese, steady on 43% approval and down one on disapproval to 47%, while Peter Dutton is down three on approval to 41% and up one on disapproval to 42%.

An occasional reading of national mood records a slight improvement on April, with 34% thinking the country headed on the right track, up two, compared with 49% for the wrong track, down one. Also featured are a series of questions on artificial intelligence and one on the impact of large technology companies, with 47% thinking them mostly negative for young people compared with 19% for positive, and 68% supporting an increase in the age limit on social media platforms from 13 to 16. Sixty-two per cent supported making hate speech a criminal offence with only 16% opposed, and 50% supported a weekend a month of national service for eighteen year olds consisting of paid full-time military placement, with 25% opposed, reducing to 46% and 26% for unpaid volunteer work. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1160.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll reverses a dip for Labor last week, their primary vote up two-and-a-half points to 31% with the Coalition down a point to 36%, the Greens down one to 14% and One Nation down one-and-a-half points to 4.5%. Labor now leads 52-48 on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, after trailing 51.5-48.5 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1579.

Also out this week is the Lowy Institute’s annual poll focusing on international issues, which affirms last year’s finding that Japan, the United Kingdom and France are trusted to act responsibly in the world, the United States, India and Indonesia a little less so, and China and Russia not at all. Joe Biden’s net rating turned negative, 46% expressing confidence, down thirteen on a year ago, and 50% lack of confidence, up twelve. Enthusiasm for Volodomyr Zelenskyy was off its earlier high, confidence down twelve to 60% and lack of confidence up seven to 29%, though this notably compares with 7% and 88% for Vladimir Putin, while Xi Zinping was at 12% and 75%. Fifty-six per cent rated the government as doing a good job on foreign policy compared with 41% for poor. The survey was conducted March 4 to 17 from a sample of 2028.

JWS Research’s quarterly-or-so True Issues issue salience report finds little change in the most important issues since February, with cost of living one of five issues nominated by 80% of respondents, well ahead of health on 58% and housing and interest rates on 55%. Nineteen per cent rated that the economy was heading in the right direction, unchanged on February, compared with 40% for the wrong direction, up one. An index score of the Albanese government’s performance records a two-point improvement to 47% after its lowest result to date in February.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,184 comments on “Polls: Essential Research, Roy Morgan and more (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 24
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  1. Fair play, Rewi. 🙂

    And I don’t mind being called out for any justifiable faux pas myself.

    I also appreciate your nuanced assessment of Andrew Giles. Iirc, he was a lawyer for refugees in his former life. So, he genuinely has a good heart but has had to swallow a cup of HTFU since becoming Immigration Minister.

  2. Hey, Victoria! Thanks 🙂
    You can certainly tell the difference between Americans and Aussies once you have been to the US.
    Magic thinking abounds there, aka religion and spiritualism of every shape, size and colour. But in Australia the majority are more down to earth. No wonder Scotty from Marketing has fled to the USA! From the number of Evangelical churches I saw over there, he could be away for a very long time. 😉

  3. ‘Ray (UK) says:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 9:54 am

    …

    In other news the first TV debate between Sunak and Starmer took place earlier .. I didn’t watch but the UK Labour sub-reddit is rather down beat about it ‘
    —————————————-
    The debate seems to have been a nothing burger. I assume that Sunak has to absolutely nail the debates to make any progress while all Starmer has to do is to come out equal. Sunak seems to be whining petulantly at the clouds.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/04/keir-gets-the-applause-in-the-tv-debate-while-the-audience-openly-laughs-at-rish

  4. Redfield & Wilton Strategies@RedfieldWilton

    Joint-largest Labour lead in Scotland with ANY polling company since June 2014.

    Labour 39% (+1)
    SNP 29% (-2)
    Conservative 17% (+3)
    Lib Dem 8% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 3% (-1)
    Alba 1% (–)
    Other 1% (+1)

    1-2 June, Changes +/- 8-9 May

  5. Netanyahu badly needs a unicorn.

    A big one.

    He’s done the Iran unicorn.

    Would a full scale invasion of Lebanon against Heshbollah come to his squalid mind?

  7. The Australian, P24 states:
    Retrenchments on the way
    The effects of the
    industrial relations
    law will be severe
    The Industrial Relations Act comes into operation on August 26, there will be a wave of retrenchments of some magnitude, according to Robert Gottlebsen.

  9. Netanyahu and the IDF, for that matter Hamas as well, going back to Northern Gaza to fight it out again is just nuts! Do they not want to resolve the situation amicably? I guess not.

  10. sealion says:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 10:52 am
    Pro-Palestinian protesters are getting under Labor’s skin.
    (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/04/pro-palestine-protests-targeting-mps-electorate-offices-have-no-place-in-a-democracy-albanese-says)

    ___________________________________

    These protesters tell ordinary Australians, who need the assistance of their local MP for something the MP can actually do, to go and get fucked. These protesters are sooooo special they and only they have the right to break the law any way they want.

  11. Those Pro Palestinian protesters, in other countries at least, have been shown have been receiving funding and strategy advice from global bad actors. It wouldn’t surprise me if the same was happening here.

  12. ‘Badthinker says:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 10:51 am

    The Australian, P24 states:
    Retrenchments on the way
    The effects of the
    industrial relations
    law will be severe
    The Industrial Relations Act comes into operation on August 26, there will be a wave of retrenchments of some magnitude, according to Robert Gottlebsen.’
    ——————
    This should make you happy because it will put downwards pressure on interest rates.

  13. According to Robert Gottliebsen, Rates are already lower than similar economies, lowering rates increases the likelihood of raids on the A$.

  17. As predicted the Housing Australia Future Fund has not spent a single cent on a single home. But it has spent $30 million exec salaries and consultants. Literally the only direct spending on public or community housing has come from the $3 billion the Greens secured. pic.twitter.com/A0DMq28p4O— Max Chandler-Mather (@MChandlerMather) June 5, 2024

    True.

  18. According to the snap YouGov poll, Keir Starmer has just lost a head-to-head debate with one of the most hapless and distrusted Prime Ministers in history.

    (Statistically I suppose it was a draw!)

    Leaving aside your own party preference, who do you think performed best overall in tonight’s debate?

    Rishi Sunak 51%
    Keir Starmer 49%

    https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2024/06/according-to-snap-yougov-poll-keir.html

    One comment: “Starmer is exceedingly lucky he has Sunak as an opponent. The moment he runs into a Tory leader with the vaguest trace of personality or charisma, he’s toast.”

  20. Natassia Chrysanthos reporting of NDIA spending as reported in Senate Estimates is sensational

    Yes there is corruption, one womn in melbourne is milking the system dry spending on luxury handbags, overseas trips – from a friend of a friend

    It was reported that NDIS money was used for drugs, alcohol, cars and rent

    Now if you are in a wheelchair your standard suburban home is no longer fit for purpose if you have 90 degree turn in 900mm wide hallway to get to bed or bathroom. Developers are building specialty accommodation for rent

    Vehicles: if you are in a wheelchair you might be better off in a van with ramp rather being transferred for wheelchair to car if carer is too frail or you weigh more that 70kg (what is the last enjoyment left in life –> eating)

    It’s a shame NDIA is still infested with liberal stooges rather that people who can count and collate the excesses

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/drugs-alcohol-rent-holidays-and-cars-integrity-chief-reveals-dodgy-ndis-spending-20240604-p5jj0w.html

  21. Proposed laws being introduced to parliament this morning will make it harder to open buy now, pay later accounts, and create stronger protections for users of the credit lenders.
    (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-05/federal-parliament-live-blog-june-6-senate-estimates/103936464
    ).

    Absolutely brilliant, hopefully it will also require retailers to tell you how much buy now, pay later companies take on the purchase, and make the cost an add-on. The same requirement for credit card purchases.

  22. Ah good to see certain people are spreading the “anything disruptive is funded by Russia/China etc and isnt organic at all” line.

    Also heres something fun for the rusted ons…

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jun/05/labor-fights-for-the-right-to-shred-documents-if-it-loses-office#:~:text=The%20federal%20government%20is%20fighting,possibly%20criminal%20and%20must%20stop.

    Labor fights for the right to shred documents if it loses office
    Attorney general Mark Dreyfus is appealing an FOI court ruling that said the practice could be criminal and must stop

  24. Hey Dr, maybe post the reason why the Greens are opposed…

    “The MP for Woolloongabba’s South Brisbane electorate, the Greens’ Amy MacMahon, said the 20 per cent affordable housing requirement was too low since it meant 80 per cent of houses would be unaffordable.”

  25. Scott

    This is why we need the progressive crossbench

    From the start the Greens said this is what would happen with the HAFF. Turns out putting on money on the stock market & not funding public housing directly fails to build housing quickly. The $3 billion the Greens secured? Well that's actually being spent on housing.— Max Chandler-Mather (@MChandlerMather) June 5, 2024

  26. A legal case to have graphic footage of a church stabbing in Sydney removed from Elon Musk’s social media platform X will be abandoned by the eSafety commissioner.

    Commissioner Julie Inman-Grant confirmed the Federal Court case would be abandoned, after several blows in court and an attempt to temporarily force the footage to be hidden expiring.

    The social media platform initially refused an eSafety notice to remove the graphic stabbing videos, later deemed an act of terror, but the Federal Court temporarily ordered X to hide the videos.

    X again refused to comply with that court order, arguing the initial take down order was not valid.

    Musk has repeatedly attacked the commissioner over her pursuit of a content take down, calling her a “censorship commissar”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-05/federal-parliament-live-blog-june-6-senate-estimates/103936464

  27. Economy grew at 0.1%

    An election is needed – nothing is going to change economically in the next 11 months. The govt botched economic policy – rates went up too slowly and now ours will come down much more slowly than the rest of the world.

    It’s time for the Australian people in their wisdom to decide the way forward and with whom.

  28. If Robert Gottliebsen is correct and retrenchments commence in the lead up to the Act kicking in on August 26, then August 3 is the safest Election date to cling on to minority government.

  30. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 11:02 am
    Those Pro Palestinian protesters, in other countries at least, have been shown have been receiving funding and strategy advice from global bad actors. It wouldn’t surprise me if the same was happening here.
    =================================================

    While there are no bad actors on the Israel side?. I think Biden has just identified one.

  31. Lars Von Triersays:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 12:06 pm
    Economy grew at 0.1%

    An election is needed – nothing is going to change economically in the next 11 months. The govt botched economic policy – rates went up too slowly and now ours will come down much more slowly than the rest of the world.

    It’s time for the Australian people in their wisdom to decide the way forward and with whom.
    ====================================================

    Poor Lars has just realised that rates will be coming down soon. Knows the only chance the LNP has is to have an election before that happens.

  32. Rikalisays:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 11:46 am
    One comment: “Starmer is exceedingly lucky he has Sunak as an opponent. The moment he runs into a Tory leader with the vaguest trace of personality or charisma, he’s toast.”
    =====================================================

    With the UK Tories finding one of those every 30 or so years. He shouldn’t be to worried. Who would be worried by the likely return of Liz of 49 days. Making sure the UK Tories remain a personality and charisma free zone.

  33. ‘Lordbain says:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 11:58 am

    Hey Dr, maybe post the reason why the Greens are opposed…

    “The MP for Woolloongabba’s South Brisbane electorate, the Greens’ Amy MacMahon, said the 20 per cent affordable housing requirement was too low since it meant 80 per cent of houses would be unaffordable.”’
    ————————
    Cracker logic! This is from the same idiots who are promising Zero Net Forty.

  35. Just as well the Greens delayed that housing funding for six full months!
    Stunting on the way in and stunting on the way out.
    Meanwhile astroturfing against wind farms and housing developments from Darwin to Tasmania.

  36. Albo’s problem is the revised Ministerial Direction 99 won’t be effective at the AAT for another 6 weeks, so in the meantime Gilesy will be flat out overturning AAT decisions.
    That will make Kiwis cranky, could the ALP lose a Senator or 2 over the issue?

  37. Dutton did something stupid yesterday.
    Does that count?
    He flat out contradicted his Defence Spokesperson.
    Talks tough; acts slack.

  39. So what we’ve learned today is that the Greens Party have delivered on immediate social housing, without the delays of Labor’s ‘Wall St’ style HAFF.

  40. The GDP figures are terrible.

    Nominal GDP Growth of 1.1%

    GDP Price growth of 3.5%

    Real GDP fell -2.4%.

    Stagflation is a very real possibility.

  41. New Mexico Primaries

    Rep : Trump at 84% (68% in)

    Dem : Biden at 85% (67% in)

    Hmm, Trump has been bleeding 15% to Haley et al for a while, whereas Biden has been crushing the Dem side so far

    Biden’s in big trouble

  42. How shit are the ALP at explaining how projects run?

    Dropping $30 mill on the start-up and planning stage of a multi-billion $ project really isn’t that surprising.

    What is surprising is that the ALP cannot produce a project schedule that shows when actual builds will commence – and a budget for what is being spent on consultants and when.

  43. There’s no doubt the former L/NP Govt trashed the economy, which we all see the results of each and every day.

    The radically extreme L/NP are terrible managers of money.

  45. returning to NDIS being used for holidays

    In Victoria TAC beneficiaries are entitled to 2 weeks paid holiday a year, it might be in the snow staying at Howmans Gap or a cruise around New Zealand for beneficiary and carer ie about $1200 as the TAC organised a good rate. These beneficiaries were brain-damaged young people like Russell “you can’t ask that” and the lass in pink track suit who danced alone and waited at boarding as we returned from shore trips (she enjoyed herself)

    At Howmans Gap the TAC beneficiaries refused to take their turn washing up, so it was simpler to do it for them

  46. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 10:03 am
    Fair play, Rewi.
    And I don’t mind being called out for any justifiable faux pas myself.
    _____________________
    Gladys is a lesbian.

  48. Taylormadesays:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 12:47 pm
    C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 10:03 am
    Fair play, Rewi.
    And I don’t mind being called out for any justifiable faux pas myself.
    _____________________
    Gladys is a lesbian.
    =====================================================

    I’m shocked, i always thought Arthur Moses was a man. The same goes for dodgy Daryl.

  49. ‘FUBAR says:
    Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 12:40 pm

    The GDP figures are terrible.

    Nominal GDP Growth of 1.1%

    GDP Price growth of 3.5%

    Real GDP fell -2.4%.

    Stagflation is a very real possibility.’
    ————————-
    Looking good for interest rate cuts.

  50. Grayndler redistributed out of existence might allow Albo to retire with a few shreds of dignity, then a reset to lord Jim, but I don’t thinki Jimmy will cut through against Dutts.

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