Live Commentary
7:05am Wednesday Just one seat remains to be declared, in which an INDIA alliance member is currently ahead. Modi’s NDA alliance has won 293 seats, while the INDIA alliance has won 229 and leads in one. While the NDA will retain a majority (272 needed for a majority), the BJP party (240 seats) is well below the majority they easily exceeded in 2019.
10:51pm 115 of the 543 seats have now been officially declared. The NDA leads in or has won 282 seats, while the INDIA alliance leads in or has won 175 seats. The BJP itself leads in or has won 240 seats, which would be 32 short of a majority and 63 down on 2019.
7:45pm The NDA leads in 278 seats to the INDIA alliance’s 173., with the BJP alone leading in 240 seats, well short of the 272 needed for a majority. The Indian electoral commission has declared four seats. In 2019, the BJP alone won 303 seats and its alliance got 353.
5:06pm The NDA now leads in 285 seats to 167 for the INDIA alliance. Modi’s BJP party leads in 243 seats, well short of a majority in its own right.
4:36pm The NDA has slipped back to 273 seats, only barely enough for a majority, while the INDIA alliance leads in 176 seats. All 543 seats now have some counting, so the remaining seats must be going to independents and others not aligned with either alliance. Contrary to polls, this doesn’t look like a Modi landslide.
3:33pm The NDA now leads in 278 seats, to 186 for the INDIA alliance. The seats the NDA now leads in are over the 272 needed for a majority.
2:27pm The NDA is now leading in 242 seats to 144 for the INDIA alliance. Unless late counting reverses the current trends, the NDA will win decisively. I have a one-hour appointment starting at 2:30pm, so I’ll next post after that.
2:11pm BJP and allies (NDA) now leading in 223 seats, to 121 for opposition INDIA alliance.
2:06pm Bloomberg says the BJP and allies are leading in 198 seats, while Congress and allies are leading in 127 seats. 272 seats are needed for a majority.
1:59pm With results in from 339 of the 543 seats, Modi’s BJP is leading in 169 seats, while their main opponents Congress are leading in 65 seats. I’m not sure about allied parties yet.
11:50am I expect official results to appear here from 12:30pm AEST.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The Indian election was held in seven stages, from April 19 to June 1. No interim results have been released, with vote counting to occur today. Counting will start at 8am Indian time (12:30pm AEST). The 543 MPs are elected by first past the post. India is the world’s most populous country, having overtaken China in 2023.
The right-wing alliance (NDA) of PM Narendra Modi, who is running for a third successive term, has a high-single to double-digit lead in polls over the opposition INDIA alliance. If the election results reflect the polls, the NDA will win a decisive majority owing to the single-member system. Exit polls released after voting finished Saturday also suggest a big majority for the NDA. Modi is easily the most popular global leader in Morning Consult’s tracker of leaders’ ratings, with 74% approval and 21% disapproval.
Other upcoming elections
The European parliament election will be held from Thursday to Sunday, with vote counting starting once all countries have finished voting. The 720 seats are elected using proportional representation in each EU country. Far-right parties are expected to make gains. I will have a post on this on Sunday.
The UK general election will be held on July 4. The Guardian’s national poll aggregate has Labour on 44.7% (steady since last Thursday), the Conservatives on 23.8% (up 0.5), the far-right Refrom on 11.2% (down 0.1), the Lib Dems on 9.1% (down 0.4) and the Greens on 5.6% (down 0.4). In the last week, there was a jump from a 14 to a 20-point Labour lead in an Opinium poll with other polls little changed.
Update 9:21am Tuesday: Nigel Farage will contest Clacton for Reform, and also becomes Reform’s leader. The JL Partners poll that previously had Labour’s lead at 12 points now has Labour leading by 17 points.
The US general election will be held on November 5. National polls conducted since the May 30 conviction of Donald Trump suggest a small movement to Joe Biden. If this is sustained, Biden should be able to overturn his 1.2% deficit to Trump in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate of national polls and improve his chance to win the Electoral College.
ANC loses majority at South African election
The 400 South African MPs were elected by proportional representation without a threshold. The African National Congress (ANC) had won a majority of votes and seats at every election since the end of apartheid in 1994, but lost their majority at the May 29 election.
The ANC won 40.2% of the vote (down 17.3% since 2019), the centrist Democratic Alliance 21.8% (up 1.0%), former president Jacob Zuma’s left-wing populist MK 14.6% (new) and the communist EFF 9.5% (down 1.3%). The ANC won 159 seats, the DA 87, the MK 58 and the EFF 39. The ANC will need an alliance to get the 201 seats required for a majority.
Mexican left wins second successive landslide
Mexican presidents are elected for six-year terms by FPTP and cannot run for re-election. In 2018, Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the left-wing MORENA party won a breakthrough victory for the left with 54.7%, with his nearest opponent on just 22.9%. At Sunday’s election, MORENA’s Claudia Sheinbaum crushed conservative Xóchitl Gálvez by 57.8-29.3 with 10.6% for a third party candidate (results at 5:40pm AEST Monday with 53% reporting). Sheinbaum is a former climate scientist and will be Mexico’s first female president.
Update 9:12am Tuesday: With 93% reporting, Sheinbaum wins by 59.2-27.8 with 10.4% for the third candidate. MORENA also held its majorities in the legislature.
Government of the high caste Hindus, by the high caste Hindus, for the high caste Hindus.
That global leaders ratings are interesting. Notable absentees are Xi and Putin.
reform is right wing but calli it far right not really accurate
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meher babasays:
Tuesday, June 4, 2024 at 7:33 am
Government of the high caste Hindus, by the high caste Hindus, for the high caste Hindus.
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Don’t believe meherbaba.
Modi is from backward caste and not from high caste Hindus.
As per exit polls 60 % backward caste votes, who constitute over 60% of Indian population, voted for BJP.
Most of the ministers in Modi government are from Backward caste, Schedule caste (the lowest caste) and Schedule tribes (Indian tribal population).
The last Indian President selected by Modi government and elected by Indian legislative bodies( that includes Indian parliament and Legislative assemblies and Legislative councils) was a Scheduled caste person. The current Indian President is Scheduled tribe woman.
Don’t believe meherbaba. He doesn’t know what he is talking about Indian politics. He is regurgitating NYT and WAPO talking points.
Modi government did not enact a legislation, which is against Indian Muslims.
Kashmir, which was a hotbed of Islamic extremism and terrorism, has returned to normalcy after Modi came to power. Tourism, which is the main employment of Kashmiris, has returned to its normalcy.
51 % Jammu and Kashmiris voted in this election, which is highest l in 3 decades.
Around 23% Christians in Kerala, which has largest Christian population %wise (about 16-18%), voted for NDA (BJP led coalition)
https://www-indiatoday-in.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.indiatoday.in/amp/elections/story/axis-my-india-exit-poll-kerala-bjp-breakthrough-seats-congress-udf-left-ldf-2546777-2024-06-01?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17174585733492&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.indiatoday.in%2Felections%2Fstory%2Faxis-my-india-exit-poll-kerala-bjp-breakthrough-seats-congress-udf-left-ldf-2546777-2024-06-01
Matthew Robinsonsays:
Tuesday, June 4, 2024 at 8:05 am
reform is right wing but calli it far right not really accurate
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I would say Modi is more far right than UK reform. If running death squads is any indication of how far right you are?.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67582825
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Entropysays:
Tuesday, June 4, 2024 at 10:15 am
Matthew Robinsonsays:
Tuesday, June 4, 2024 at 8:05 am
reform is right wing but calli it far right not really accurate
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I would say Modi is more far right than UK reform. If running death squads is any indication of how far right you are?.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67582825
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You are so wrong entropy. Khalistanis are classified as extremists and terrorists in India not just by Modi government but by previous Congress/ Congress led coalition Governments. It started when Congress PM Indira Gandhi classified them as terrorists.
A Khalistani supporter, who was Indira Gandhi bodyguard, killed her at him in 1984.
Her son Rajiv Gandhi, who became PM after her death, continued that classification. The Khalistanis killed a lot of Punjab Congress leaders, including one of their Chief Ministers, in open day light.
Air India flight 182 flying from Montreal to London, the aircraft named Kanishka, blown up by Khalistani terrorists on June 23, 1985. Some of its remnants were strewn over the coast of Ireland’s Cork region, the rest sank into the North Sea.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/static/AI182/phone/index.html#:~:text=That%2C%20of%20course%2C%20was%20Air,sank%20into%20the%20North%20Sea.
Isn’t it true that CIA, MI5 run death squads against its enemies.
The concept of James Bond 007, licence to kill, is an English concept and widely popular in West. James Bond may be fictional character but I am talking about the concept.
Just been having a look at Clacton constituency, to assess Farridge’s chances
2019 Notionals (the constituency had only minor changes in the 2023 redraw, numbers are extremely close to the actual result in the old Clacton seat)
Con 71.9
Lab 15.6
LDem 6.2
Green 2.8
Refm 0.0 (would have been Brexit party in 2019)
Other 3.4
Electoral Calculus Nowcast
Lab 40.2
Con 39.7
LDem 3.1
Green 2.6
Refm 13.2
Others 1.2
YouGov MRP
Con 42.3
Lab 27.0
LDem 4.4
Green 5.9
Refm 19.5
Other 0.9
Who knows? . I have to say I find the YouGov figures more believable than the Electoral Calculus nowcast
PS The current MP for Claction is one Giles Watling a former actor .. denizens of the 1980s Carla Lane/BBC sitcom ‘Bread’ would remember him as ‘Oswald’ the Vicar, who married the Boswell daughter Aveline 🙂
Ven: It is true that Modi was born into the “Modh-Ghanchi” caste, which was one of a large number of groups added to the “Other Backward Castes” category by the then Janata Dal government of Gujarat in 1994 as a bit of a vote-buying exercise (because OBC people got various affirmative action benefits. I believe there was a great deal of resentment to this move at the time among the more traditional lower caste communities of Gujarat. I recall that there was rioting in Ahmedabad and elsewhere at that time.
Ghanchis might well be oil-pressers, but the prefix “Modh” tends to suggest an elevation in the social hierarchy: eg, Gandhi’s families were Banias, which were traditionally traders, and therefore considered to be fairly well down the hierarchy, but his family saw themselves in some ways as being more akin to the “Nagar Brahmins”, the urban Brahmins of Gujarat who would do things like send their sons to Britain to study law, etc. It is possible that Modi’s family also had an elevated sort of status: they certainly seem to have practiced strict vegetarianism and other Brahmin-lie behaviours.
Exactly what sort of background Modi comes from remains a matter of political controversy within India today.
Regardless of Modi’s background, in Gujarat the BJP has long been the party of the more conservative higher castes, particularly in rural areas: Brahmins and the landlord classes such as Kanbis and Patidars. The great historic hero of the BJP, Gandhi’s sidekick Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, was a Patidar. (The surname Patel is extremely common among the landlord classes of Gujarat: it you
It’s possible that the BJP has slightly different demographic support in other parts of India with which I’m less familiar than Gujarat. However, there is no doubt that many voters in the southern states perceive the party as being strongly associated with northern Brahmins.
I think you are very much stretching things to suggest that the BJP is generally friendly to lower castes and Muslims. Their strongest support base is among aspirational devout Hindus from Brahmin and landlord class backgrounds
However, I will grant you that most Indian political parties are hostile towards the Khalistanis, and with good reason, as they are violent extremists.
Ven, I continue to be astonished that you clearly consider yourself to be a left-winger and often admonish me for being a Liberal, but you also seem to be a huge enthusiast of the BJP. When I lived in India, all the left-leaning people I knew totally despised the BJP, seeing them in a similar way to how Australian leftists would perceive the One Nation party. I can’t see any signs that the BJP has changed all that much over the years.
That ‘opinium’ poll seems to me to be a dopey way to go, but then again it is in the UK.
meher babasays:
Tuesday, June 4, 2024 at 11:00 am
However, I will grant you that most Indian political parties are hostile towards the Khalistanis, and with good reason, as they are violent extremists.
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Any evidence that the person they assassinated in Canada and others on their death list in Canada plus the USA were violent extremists?.
Entropy: they were most likely strongly connected to violent extremism. Does that mean it would bevappropriate for them to be assassinated on foreign soil? No.
My comment went to suggestions that strong action against Khalistanis was somehow uniquely Modi’s doing, as opposed to being consistent with the policies of the Indian Government in general.
BTW, it doesn’t look as if the election is going to be quite the landslide for Modi that some expected.
meher babasays:
Tuesday, June 4, 2024 at 4:20 pm
Entropy: they were most likely strongly connected to violent extremism. Does that mean it would bevappropriate for them to be assassinated on foreign soil? No.
My comment went to suggestions that strong action against Khalistanis was somehow uniquely Modi’s doing, as opposed to being consistent with the policies of the Indian Government in general.
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Just because you want a Khalistani homeland doesn’t make you violent. While some obviously were, many more were probably not. It is like saying everyone who wants a united Ireland was violent. Which was also not the case.
Entropy: as Ven pointed out, Khakistanis have assassinated an Indian PM and blown up a passenger jet. They can be way violent.
I might add that their claims for their own homeland do not seem to me to be particularly strong. Sikhs have always been largely free from persecution in India, except at times when the actions of the Khalistani movement have attracted persecution.
meher babasays:
Tuesday, June 4, 2024 at 4:55 pm
Entropy: as Ven pointed out, Khakistanis have assassinated an Indian PM and blown up a passenger jet. They can be way violent.
I might add that their claims for their own homeland do not seem to me to be particularly strong. Sikhs have always been largely free from persecution in India, except at times when the actions of the Khalistani movement have attracted persecution.
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I think the Sikhs have much to be worried about Hindu nationalism.
meher baba says:
Tuesday, June 4, 2024 at 4:33 pm
BTW, it doesn’t look as if the election is going to be quite the landslide for Modi that some expected.
————-
I guess you know something about Modi’s early marriage as a teenager?
From Wikipedia: Jashodaben Narendrabhai Modi (née Chimanlal Mod: ( born 1952) is a retired Indian school teacher.
She is the estranged wife of Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India. The couple were married in 1968 when she was about 17 and Modi was 18.
A short time into the marriage, Narendra Modi estranged her. He did not acknowledge the marriage publicly until he was legally required to do so prior to the 2014 Indian general elections to the Lok Sabha. In 2015, Jashodaben Modi retired from her teaching job.
Well said. I also find this baffling.
Ha, ha that fascist Modi not doing as well as he thought. Hubris is a beautful thing.
Nigel Farage’s sudden move to contest the UK election is surprising and interesting.
Clacton is strong UKIP/Brexit/Reform territory, but Farage’s various movements haven’t done well to win actual seats at elections. But in the end Clacton was one of them, won by UKIP’s Douglas Carswell in 2015 with a majority of 44.4% over the Tory candidate’s 36.7%. I think there’ll be a lot of local polling in that area over the next few weeks.
I assumed that Farage’s most likely plan was to stay out of this election, then when the Conservatives are wiped out, “graciously” offer his leadership to that party (probably with a deal where he contests Rishi Sunak’s seat as the Tory candidate in a by-election when Sunak inevitably resigns from parliament) and aim to become Prime Minister that way.
Perhaps in this method he aims to be an actual MP first? Or, alternatively, he believes that this is going to be a 1993 Canadian style wipeout of the traditional Tories, and his party will take their place if he’s personally campaigning?
Yes, BJP is doing way below expectations in its heartland of UP, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Haryana and Karnataka.
UP is the New York state of Modi government.
In 2014 and 2019, they got 72 and 61 seats out of 80 seats respectively.
Now they are leading in only 35 seats.
However, NDA/ BJP won majority in 3 out of 4 states that went to election along with Lok Sabha election.
There are about 120 seats with 5000 or less leads.
Please note that the voters in each constituency could anywhere between 800000 to 1200000
Latest from The Guardian blog on the Indian election.
Lots more interesting info about the Indian election coming from the Guardian Blog. I’d probably just be better off linking it for the developments so far.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jun/04/india-election-results-2024-live-updates-modi-bjp-vote-counting
UK – Farage’s announcement yesterday has the Tories laying eggs at the moment.
RSA – The story at the moment is that the ANC leadership is keener on going into coalition with DA and IFP than either EFF or MK. Given both EFF and MK are breakaway groups from ANC, there is a lot of bad blood held by the ANC. One of things MK wants is pardons for Jacob Zuma which is a no go for the ANC. And EFF economic policies will scare the heck out of the more moderate ANC members who currently live conformable middle class lives.
Another thing that has to happen in South Africa now. Because all the provinces have their elections on the same day as the National election, all the provinces need to form governments. In some cases this maybe different coalitions to what will occur nationally.
clem attleesays:
Tuesday, June 4, 2024 at 6:24 pm
Ha, ha that fascist Modi not doing as well as he thought. Hubris is a beautful thing.
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Looks like many told the polls they would vote for Modi but didn’t. I assume that is a fear factor. Many scared to openly declare against Modi but feel safer to it secretly at the ballot box.
‘Scholz’s Social Democrats Overtake Far-Right AfD in German Poll .. Anti-immigrant party slips behind chancellor’s SPD party .. Support for the AfD has been dented by a series of scandals’ :Bild
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-04/scholz-s-social-democrats-overtake-far-right-afd-in-german-poll?srnd=politics-vp
“I assumed that Farage’s most likely plan was to stay out of this election, then when the Conservatives are wiped out, “graciously” offer his leadership to that party (probably with a deal where he contests Rishi Sunak’s seat as the Tory candidate in a by-election when Sunak inevitably resigns from parliament) and aim to become Prime Minister that way.”
Ha-ha, this might sound logical from 12,000 miles away but let me assure you this would never happen in a million years. Most of the traditional Tory heavyweights regard Farage as lightweight and despise him, notwithstanding he would have some significant admiration from grassroots Tories.
For that matter, I’m not sure that it’s a move that would help Farage politically either.
Farage has an even chance of winning Clacton.
(Incidentally, a girl has been arrested today after throwing a milkshake over Farage in Clacton, along with a male accomplice who assaulted an emergency worker in the scuffle.)
But far more importantly for Reform, will be the impact nationally of having Farage actually run for a seat – him winning it doesn’t matter much.
Just see all the media attention already compared to what Reform, fairly or unfairly, were getting before his announcement (hint: it wasn’t much). Probably they will now get a chunk of voters who wouldn’t have bothered voting at all, the sort that never voted in elections but voted in the EU referendum.
All that said, if Reform don’t win a seat in Clacton then you can be fairly sure they won’t have won any elsewhere either (Ashfield / 30p Lee, a possible exception?), meaning they risk going into oblivion without parliamentary representation – though partly that will depend on their national vote % and how close they come in a bunch of seats, how much they influenced the outcome overall, etc.
Great to see the hard right religious candidate with death squads flying all over the world didn’t get an outright majority. His arrogance, religious zealotry and disdain for accountability were already out of control.
Some of the polls in Indian were actually closer to right than one might think given that the commentary was all about how Modi was going to romp it in. The seat projections that the polling companies produced were way off.
It is an interesting result. Modi may not things quite his own way now he has to rely on his coalition partners.
Thanks AB for the Indian election coverage.
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B. S. Fairmansays:
Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 7:04 am
Some of the polls in Indian were actually closer to right than one might think given that the commentary was all about how Modi was going to romp it in. The seat projections that the polling companies produced were way off.
It is an interesting result. Modi may not things quite his own way now he has to rely on his coalition partners.
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There was only one leader in India, who provided perfect template for coalition politics in India and that was Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the first BJP lead coalition PM and mentor of Modi in politics. Although the BJP led by him only got around 180 seats out of 543, when he won in 1997 and then again in 1999, he cobbled up coalition partners to get 272(simple majority),deftly managed his coalition partners requirements and egos and provided one of the most reforming governments in India, which laid foundation for required economic growth, which led great economic recovery and growth of Indian economy in later years. He lost power in 2004, which came as major surprise for many pundits.
Even the most bitter political opponents of Modi, very coalition partners in Vajpayee government.
B. S. Fairmansays:
Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 7:04 am
Some of the polls in Indian were actually closer to right than one might think given that the commentary was all about how Modi was going to romp it in. The seat projections that the polling companies produced were way off.
It is an interesting result. Modi may not things quite his own way now he has to rely on his coalition partners.
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With the results looking like a close win to Modi but forcing him into minority Government. One must asked questions about the legitimacy of his small win?. Voting participation was well down on previous elections. Also widely reported voting suppression of minorities, like muslims, by the Hindu nationalistic BJP. Did they actually steal this election by their tactic of violent voter suppression?. Can this likely minority Modi Government be considered legitimate?.
Ven, Asha and Meher Baba
Thanks for the comments here from pollbludgers of an Indian background. I found your explanations interesting. I don’t mind that you disagree with each other on Indian politics. We all do on Australian politics 🙂
Like others I was surprised by Modi not getting a clear majority, but found the explanations for that helpful.
The result is to me a vindication of Indian democracy. Modi has undeniable media star power, but has done some questionable things recently, e.g. the alleged murder in Canada I find very problematic. Yet the results show ordinary Indians can discriminate between those things and do not vote just on the media hype. Hence there is accountability, which is essential for any democracy to survive.
Regarding the Canadian Sikh murder, it is not that I support Kalistanis, but it is still an assault on Canada’s sovereignty. Therefore if Modi did organise it he crossed a red line IMO.
That being said, India’s economy has certainly advanced in the past decade. I hope it continues to do so. IMO there are many reasons of mutual benefit why Australia and India should have closer defense and economic relationships.
There are many, many Indians in Australia who both support Australian Labor (in fact, it is the most popular party among Indian Australians) and support the BJP/Modi. The lens of viewing Modi as a Trumpist figure is very much a creation of Western media rather than a view of Indians.
There are many, many Indians in Australia who both support Australian Labor (in fact, it is the most popular party among Indian Australians) and support the BJP/Modi. The lens of viewing Modi as a Trumpist figure is very much a creation of Western media rather than a view of Indians.
This is a good article for those looking for an introduction/overview on India’s democratic traditions. https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/why-indias-democracy-is-not-dying/
Asha
This shows how we hold politicians to different standards depending where they come from. Again the media has to take some blame whilst we shouldn’t be so easily duped in our thinking.
We’re always at pains not to upset ‘Eastern’ leaders who could be / are allies, and we’re always exceptionally harsh on USA and, to a lesser extent, UK leaders who don’t ‘suit’ us.
Though it is more baffling how contributors so clearly informed on India like Ven can be so vitriolic, both about Coalition politicians and to other posters who disagree or who are anything to the right of Labor politically, yet full-throatedly support BJP / Modi who is obviously to the right of anyone in the Coalition in Australia, and arguably even than One Nation on many things!
All without a trace of irony as if there’s no incongruence.
The political culture in India is so vastly different to Australia that I don’t think you can make any straightforward claims about which party is more left or right. Obviously there are many ways that the BJP is a right-wing party but there are a considerable number of issues where the “left” in India would be considered more conservative from a Western standpoint. For example, the BJP campaigns on Uniform Civil Code, which from a Western lens is a progressive law countering conservative religious dogma in law (inc. Sharia) but in India is opposed by the “left-wing” parties.
The political culture in India is so vastly different to Australia that I don’t think you can make any straightforward claims about which party is more left or right. Obviously there are many ways that the BJP is a right-wing party but there are a considerable number of issues where the “left” in India would be considered more conservative from a Western standpoint. For example, the BJP campaigns on Uniform Civil Code, which from a Western lens is a progressive law countering conservative religious dogma in law (inc. Sharia) but in India is opposed by the “left-wing” parties.
“For example, the BJP campaigns on Uniform Civil Code, which from a Western lens is a progressive law countering conservative religious dogma in law (inc. Sharia) but in India is opposed by the “left-wing” parties.”
If the uniform civil code is a Hindu Nationalist one. It would hardly be considered progressive. It would be the equivalent to Sharia law but imposed by Hindu Nationalists instead of Muslim Nationalists. Which would otherwise be the case if it was Pakistan and not India.
Look it up. It’s about applying laws equally to every citizen. This is a fact of life for any liberal democracy but it’s not the case in India.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uniform_Civil_Code
“The Uniform Civil Code is a proposal in India to formulate and implement personal laws of citizens which apply on all citizens equally regardless of their religion. Currently, personal laws of various communities are governed by their religious scriptures”
I have no idea what YouGov are playing at here .. perhaps William could chime in
YouGov
@YouGov
New voting intention (3-4 Jun): this is our first poll carried out under our new methodology, which mirrors that which we use for our MRP
Lab: 40% ( -4)
Con: 19% (-2)
Reform UK: 17% (+3)
Lib Dem: 10% (-1)
Green: 7% (+1)
SNP: 3%
Old methodology
Lab: 45% (-1)
Con: 18% (-3)
Reform UK: 18% (+3)
Lib Dem: 8% (nc)
Green: 6% (nc)
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49614-using-mrp-for-our-voting-intention-polling
Alex Andreou@sturdyAlex
Last night YouGov had Sunak winning the debate 51-49 and all the journalist went: A STUNNING VICTORY.
A bigger poll overnight shows Starmer won 54-46. Same journalists: “Even-Stevens really”.
Addasays:
Wednesday, June 5, 2024 at 10:47 pm
Look it up. It’s about applying laws equally to every citizen. This is a fact of life for any liberal democracy but it’s not the case in India.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uniform_Civil_Code
“The Uniform Civil Code is a proposal in India to formulate and implement personal laws of citizens which apply on all citizens equally regardless of their religion. Currently, personal laws of various communities are governed by their religious scriptures”
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But who will decide what those actual laws are though?. If it is the Hindu Nationalist Government of Modi. I suspected those laws will be heavily influenced by Hindu Nationalist beliefs.
Uniform Civil Code does actually seem like a sensible law on the face of it, and long overdue. I didn’t realise religious and tribal law was still so dominant in large parts of India, and by the sounds of it legally so (or grey area at least).
Ray
That’s interesting re YouGov poll – either version is very damning for Conservatives.
But I hadn’t seen the numbers using the old methodology or that they had changed their headline polling to the MRP methodology – though their historical polling on MRP has been pretty patchy. Survation, on the other hand, have a strong track record on polling in UK – outstandingly so in the 2017 election where they picked up the youth surge for Corbyn and the likelihood of a hung parliament while most of the country still thought Tories / Theresa May would get a landslide.
So thanks for sharing that. The old numbers make more sense, with Tories down 3 and Lab only down 1 against the Reform surge – whereas the new methodology showed Tories down 2 and Lab down 6 from last poll (not down 4 as u have it).
Ray
I think the snap poll of YouGov on who won the debate carries greater value as it was carried out instantly, without the respondents having time to be influenced by the spin and reporting afterwards.
Who carried out the overnight poll, and do you have a link?
MRP is typically used to predict outcomes in every seat, as Redbridge/Accent did here recently, and it mostly involves developing a demographic profile of each electorate and using it to estimate voting intention based on poll responses from different demographic groups at large. But here YouGov are treating the whole of the UK as one single electorate and using the MRP model they have already developed to project a single national result. Presumably there’s more to it than this, but it would seem to me that this largely amounts to a) using cell weighting rather than rim weighting, a distinction non-specialists need not lose any sleep over, and b) having a more elaborate national demographic model than other pollsters. I’m a bit surprised that this would make as much difference as these numbers seem to suggest.