The post-budget polling avalanche rumbles on:
• Yesterday’s Financial Review had a Freshwater Strategy poll with two-party preferred at 50-50, unchanged on mid-April, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up one), Coalition 40% (steady) and Greens 14% (up one). Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 37% and steady on 45% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down a point on both to 31% and 40% respectively. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 45-39 to 46-37. Twenty-four per cent said the budget would make them better off, 23% worse off and 46% no difference, but 39% felt it would have an upward impact on interest rates compared with only 11% for downward and 28% for no effect. Nonetheless, questions on which parties were better placed to handle various areas of policy found Labor doing better on the whole than last month, having widened their lead on welfare and benefits and narrowed deficits on economic management, crime and social order and immigration and asylum. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1056.
• The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor and the Coalition unchanged at 31% and 34% of the primary vote respectively, but with the Greens down to 10%, One Nation up one to 8% and 6% undecided. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is unchanged with the Coalition leading 47% to 46% and the remainder undecided. Last time it was noted here that the 2PP+ implied an unusually strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition – this remains the case this time in lesser degree, my own estimate of two-party preferred based on 2022 election preference flows being 51-49 in favour of Labor. All the major initiatives in the budget recorded strong support, but only 27% thought it would make a meaningful difference to the cost of living. Sixty per cent felt only low and middle-income households should get the $300 energy rebate, with only 35% favouring it going to all households as per the government’s approach. The poll had a sample of 1149 and was presumably conducted Wednesday to Sunday – there will be more detail in the full release later today.
• After four successive weeks at 52-48, the regular Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Labor 30.5% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 14.5% (up one) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1674.
meher babasays:
Friday, May 24, 2024 at 1:04 pm
Shout out to Ven
I for one am greatly looking forward to your defence of Modi’s claim to be of divine origin.
==================================================
Is it much different to Morrison’s claim that god ordained his 2019 election victory though?.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/26/scott-morrison-tells-christian-conference-he-was-called-to-do-gods-work-as-prime-minister
Douglas and Milko
Do you have some ideas on why this is?
Is it good old fashioned prejudice that just means that the disabled person is automatically overlooked for a job, even if they have the same skills as other applicants?
—————
That might go someway to explaining it because there seems to be a reluctance by many employers to embrace people with a disability.
Entropy: ScoMo’s comment was ridiculous and embarrassing, but at least he didn’t claim to be a supernatural being.
Mexicanbeemer @ #1354 Friday, May 24th, 2024 – 1:09 pm
The cost of, or worry about the cost of, appropriate accommodations for a disabled employee may be part of it.
Boerwarsays:
Friday, May 24, 2024 at 12:38 pm
The Albanese Government has done an excellent job of Suppressing wage increases in the Aged Care Industry to ONLY 27%.
MUST.DO.WORSE!
—————–
Labor wants to bring inflation under control and doesn’t want wages chasing inflation so yes labor wants wage growth but not if it causes excess inflation.
Leader says:
Friday, May 24, 2024 at 8:53 am
C@tmomma,I agree there are legitimate people who cannot work, but there must be people in the 900,000 unemployed that can work but aren’t.
For instance, the example you gave “elderly women who are waiting to go on the Aged Pension “, are they not capable of working while they wait?
Facts
– average length of time on JobSeeker is over 5 years
– more than half the people on JobSeeker are over age 45
– more than half the people on JobSeeker are too sick to work full time and should be on Disability Support
Productivity Commission is full of people who believe in small government
Reserve Bank of Australia is charged with keeping inflation in check by keeping unemployment rate at 4.5%
There are people in rural areas who work part time or part of the year because there is no full time work in their locality
Dealing with Services Australia is so unpleasant people only engage with them when they have no choice as the Services Australia code the transactions incorrectly, give out wrong advice and transactions are LOST when more transaction than overnight batch run can process
Of course the minister is fed his briefings from the SAP system (indexed database built around a chart of accounts) which has a very poor interface with the underlying IDBMS database
Abolishing Mutual Obligations would give the Services Australia database a fighting chance of coping with the volume of daily transactions its expected to process
Ah the deserving poor argument
Anecdotally Job Service Providers report 0.01% shirkers but Russell Broadbent Liberal Morwell always exagerated upwards to 5% dole bludgers
Boerwar says:
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 6:48 pm
New Caledonia is a variation in the theme of decolonization.
The colonizers narrowly outnumber those colonized.
The Australian colonization trajectory avoided this predicament – for the colonizers, at least.
———-
What’s the difference between an “immigrant” and a “coloniser”?
It’s hard to know where virtue lies these day.
I thought “wokery” glorified diversity as an absolute good and sees a population with a narrow range of ethnic backgrounds, abhorrent.
Are the first generation of new immigrants detestable “colonisers” but the latter generations virtuous immigrants or refugees?
Does it depend on the so called “race” of the coloniser? The convicts to Australia I suppose would be “colonisers” but obviously Senator Mehreen Faruqi, for example, can’t ever be.
Where does a policy of rendering a native population a minority in their ancestral land like the Uyghers in Xinjiang, Kanaks in New Caledonia and eventually the Papuans in West Papua fit in with “diversity”?
meher babasays:
Friday, May 24, 2024 at 1:12 pm
Entropy: ScoMo’s comment was ridiculous and embarrassing, but at least he didn’t claim to be a supernatural being.
==========================================
No he didn’t claim that, just a humble prophet.
VOLUNTEERING
many volunteer jobs used to done by paid workers
many work for the dole jobs used to be done by paid employees
I note that Salvos turned $1billion profit using people in work for the dole programs, who get breeched if they don’t follow orders ie their unemployment payment is suspended
According to Crikey and Twitter there are about to be some tough times for NewsCorpse journos – $65 million in job cuts happening. Perhaps they have been trialing the AI bots here on Pollbludger?
https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/05/24/news-corp-staff-panic-restructure-rumours/#Echobox=1716510965
“I thought “wokery” glorified diversity as an absolute good and sees a population with a narrow range of ethnic backgrounds, abhorrent.”
I think the word “wokery” says a lot more about the user than those it is being used to describe.
Technically woke means opposing social injustice or discrimination. Though i find it is most often used by those who oppose these ideas as a slur. Against anyone who shows empathy for the plight of anyone that RWNJ’s disdain.
Disabled people are less attractive employees because
1. may look strange
2. may be sick more often than healthy person
3. if downs syndrome will take longer to learn the job but won’t get bored as quickly
4. may need physical accommodations like ramps, wider corridors, different height desks & chairs, audio for blind people in open plan office, dwarf needs stool to reach urinal or toilet
5. prejudice
They’re not AI Liberal bots on PB. Just people silly enough to believe the Liberal line and post it here gratis.
Socratessays:
Friday, May 24, 2024 at 1:33 pm
According to Crikey and Twitter there are about to be some tough times for NewsCorpse journos – $65 million in job cuts happening. Perhaps they have been trialing the AI bots here on Pollbludger?
https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/05/24/news-corp-staff-panic-restructure-rumours/#Echobox=1716510965
================================================
Newspapers written by “Badthinker”, what could possibly go wrong?.
Cat
Sorry, given the monotonous and predictable nature of some of the posting you can understand my mistake 😉
Now Republican politicians have passed bills are dangerous
GOP-dominated Louisiana passes bill classifying abortion pills as ‘dangerous’
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/23/2242349/-GOP-dominated-Louisiana-passes-bill-classifying-abortion-pills-as-dangerous?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_9&pm_medium=web
“Two abortion-inducing drugs could soon be reclassified as controlled and dangerous substances in Louisiana under a first-of-its-kind bill that received final legislative passage Thursday and is expected to be signed into law by the governor.
Supporters of the reclassification of mifepristone and misoprostol, commonly known as “abortion pills,” say it would protect expectant mothers from coerced abortions. Numerous doctors, meanwhile, have said it will make it harder for them to prescribe the medicines that they use for other important reproductive health care needs, and could delay treatment.
Passage of the bill comes as both abortion rights advocates and abortion opponents await a final decision from the U.S. Supreme Court on an effort to restrict access to mifepristone. The justices did not appear ready to limit access to the drug on the day they heard arguments.”
Okay, I feel torn. Tonight I had the most amazing Lebanese meal, out and about in Portland, at a place called Nicholas.
They started out by bringing to the table freshly baked flat bread and Zataar dipping sauce (sesame seeds, sesame and olive oil, with a dash of lemon). My son had a Shawarma plate and I had a Mixed Kebab plate with one being chicken breast, marinated in a dry sauce and the other one was fresh caught Pacific Northwest Salmon, drizzled with an avocado dressing, over an amazing salad with fetta and olives and cucumbers and tomatoes, plus two side dishes of tzatziki and garlic sauce!
And the reason I’m torn is that I don’t want to be a faithless lover of Abduls. But Nicholas’ was THAT GOOD! And only $20 American each!
”
pied pipersays:
Friday, May 24, 2024 at 12:06 pm
ICC a sign of a deep sickness that could kill us in Australia, too.
That UN agencies mourn the Butcher of Tehran as they seek to arrest democratic Israel’s leaders presents the morally inverted, politically corrupted and more than half insane nature of what passes for liberal internationalism today.
The oz today.
”
In PP’s world 1200 is equal to 35000. What a mathematical genius.
The sign of deep sickness is within you.
Socratessays:
Friday, May 24, 2024 at 1:43 pm
Cat
Sorry, given the monotonous and predictable nature of some of the posting you can understand my mistake
=================================================
If the same thing is being posted monotonously. You wouldn’t need AI for that. Any computer system could be set up to do that. I thought the whole idea of AI is it would be responsive to feedback and thus be able to change the way it is messaging all the time?.
C@ t
Sounds absolutely yummy! Buon appetito.
‘Mexicanbeemer says:
Friday, May 24, 2024 at 1:18 pm
Boerwarsays:
Friday, May 24, 2024 at 12:38 pm
The Albanese Government has done an excellent job of Suppressing wage increases in the Aged Care Industry to ONLY 27%.
MUST.DO.WORSE!
—————–
Labor wants to bring inflation under control and doesn’t want wages chasing inflation so yes labor wants wage growth but not if it causes excess inflation.’
=========================
The fact is that Labor has initiated significant IR and other reforms to get real wages growing. It has succeeded in getting wage increase of 27% in the Aged Care Industry – a feminized industry. It has supported female participation in the work force through targeted super and family support mechanism.
The notion that the Liberals and Labor are the same on wages is 100% pure bullshit.
‘Rikali says:
Friday, May 24, 2024 at 1:19 pm
Boerwar says:
Thursday, May 23, 2024 at 6:48 pm
New Caledonia is a variation in the theme of decolonization.
The colonizers narrowly outnumber those colonized.
The Australian colonization trajectory avoided this predicament – for the colonizers, at least.
———-
What’s the difference between an “immigrant” and a “coloniser”?
It’s hard to know where virtue lies these day.
I thought “wokery” glorified diversity as an absolute good and sees a population with a narrow range of ethnic backgrounds, abhorrent.
Are the first generation of new immigrants detestable “colonisers” but the latter generations virtuous immigrants or refugees?
Does it depend on the so called “race” of the coloniser? The convicts to Australia I suppose would be “colonisers” but obviously Senator Mehreen Faruqi, for example, can’t ever be.
Where does a policy of rendering a native population a minority in their ancestral land like the Uyghers in Xinjiang, Kanaks in New Caledonia and eventually the Papuans in West Papua fit in with “diversity”?’
—————
Plenty of food for thought there, Rikali.
My point was a response to how despicable the french were in relation to the Kanakas. The point? We killed around 3 million Indigenous Australians to get the sort of numbers disparity that is very different from those in New Caledonia.
Granny Anny @ #914 Friday, May 24th, 2024 – 12:03 pm
Not a right wing poster, but I think it’s one where workers do what they’re bloody well told.
‘Douglas and Milko says:
Friday, May 24, 2024 at 12:56 pm
Thanks Kirsdarke! I eventually got there.
For volunteering, those of us who are retired are too busy looking after grandchildren (or even great-grandchildren in some instances I am aware of) as unpaid labour.
And for anyone who is not, the cost of transport, as Catprog says, is prohibitive, if any car travel is involved, as it always is outside the inner city or along major rail lines.
And in Qld, even if you get the old-age pension, you do not get a travel concession (at least that was the case 10 years ago – perhaps it has changed).’
——————-
Prompted by your post I did some calculations.
Between the two of us we do a total of 34 hours a week child minding. That is during school weeks. During school holidays it goes up.
Is it totally necessary? Not really. The parents would struggle but they would cope.
Does it help their parents a lot? Yes. They can focus on their work and their careers.
Does it help the children? Yes. They get lots of high quality grandparenting time.
Does it help us? Yes. It adds immensely to the richness of our lives.
For most of human history grandparents have done this sort of work while the hunters and the gatherers went out. It is, in other words, a natural part of being human.
Well, well, well…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/24/gaye-grant-nsw-teacher-child-sexual-abuse-law-women-ntwnfb
I think the flaw in your diatribe Rikhali lies in confusing diversity with power relations.
It is the dispossession and disempowerment caused by colonisation that must be addressed not (necessarily) the diversity it has delivered.
Boerwar at 2.18 well said. Grandparenting is one of the most rewarding experiences.
So the government can just legislate for higher wages ?
Who knew ?
The sad reality is real wages have declined over the term of this Labor Govt.
The Liberals hate every dollar in every pay packet.
Same old, same old.
Which brand new inflation driver came first? The chicken or the egg?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/23/bird-flu-detected-at-second-victorian-farm-as-separate-outbreak-found-in-western-australia
The land of the free…
Arse-covering abounds…
In my 40-odd years in the workforce I never encountered a LNP government, Federal or State, that didn’t have limiting or eliminating wages growth and undermining workers’ conditions as a key plank in their industrial relations policy.
They didn’t always spell it out but it was always their aim.
LNP politicians hate workers. It’s in their DNA.
Just playing with ChatGPT – I copied in the posts on this page and got:
The discussion you posted covers a wide range of topics including wage policies, employment of disabled people, political comments, colonialism, and personal anecdotes about volunteering and family support. Here are some key points:
Wage Suppression Policies: There’s a debate about whether the LNP (Liberal National Party) and ALP (Australian Labor Party) have different approaches to wage growth, with some arguing that the LNP consistently suppresses wages regardless of inflation.
Employment of Disabled People: Various reasons are discussed for why disabled individuals may face discrimination in the job market, including prejudices and the perceived costs of accommodations.
Political Comments and Colonialism: There’s a comparison between Scott Morrison’s religious comments and those made by Modi, as well as a discussion on the nuances of colonialism and immigration.
Personal Experiences and Volunteering: Anecdotes about volunteering, grandparenting, and the challenges faced by those relying on public services like Services Australia.
If you need a deeper analysis or a summary of any specific point, feel free to ask!
How do these people pass Medicine in the first place!?!
‘A Texas doctor who says that 9 year olds can safely give birth, has been appointed to the Maternal Mortality Committee.’
(The Guardian)
God help us!
Some good news for a change …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-24/great-artesian-basin-carbon-storage-plan-rejected/103889302
But hang on a minute …
Why only protect the Queensland portion of the GAB? Does each State have to legislate to save their own portion of the GAB? But aren’t they all connected? So if one state doesn’t do so, the whole GAB could be ruined anyway.
Why are Federal Labor silent on this critical national issue?
Something I’ve been worried about – ChatGPT has the answer..
You: Will Linda Reynolds court case affect the next election timing
ChatGPT
The court case involving Linda Reynolds, a former Liberal senator, could potentially have political ramifications, but its direct impact on the timing of the next federal election in Australia would depend on several factors.
Public Perception and Media Coverage: High-profile legal cases involving politicians can influence public opinion and media narratives. If the case attracts significant attention and has negative implications for the Liberal Party, it could affect their electoral prospects and strategies.
Party Strategy: If the case generates considerable negative publicity for the Liberal Party, they might consider adjusting their election timing or strategies to mitigate the damage. This could involve focusing on other issues, changing the narrative, or even considering a leadership change if deemed necessary.
Legal Proceedings and Outcomes: The duration and outcomes of legal proceedings can be unpredictable. If the case is prolonged or results in significant findings against Reynolds, it could have a sustained impact on the party’s image and electoral prospects.
Electoral Cycle: The timing of federal elections in Australia is influenced by constitutional and political factors. The government has some flexibility within the electoral cycle to call an election, but it is bound by constitutional limits. Strategic decisions around election timing consider a range of factors, including legal cases, economic conditions, and political dynamics.
Internal Party Dynamics: The case could also affect internal party dynamics, including candidate selections and pre-election preparations. If the case impacts the party’s internal cohesion or distracts from campaign efforts, it could influence the decision on when to hold the election.
While the Linda Reynolds court case could influence the political environment and electoral strategies, the direct impact on the timing of the next federal election would depend on a combination of these factors and broader political considerations.
sprocket_,
Why didn’t ChatGPT decide, Nicholas’ or Abdul’s? 😉
C@tmomma @ #1387 Friday, May 24th, 2024 – 3:07 pm
“Maternal Mortality”. Do we need more of that?
C@t
I think ChatGPT needs more context -it thinks Nicholas is a Lebanese restaurant in Portland Oregon
Which is one of the limitations of these large Language models. But it is helpful all the same…
Decision Factors
Menu Preferences: If you are particularly drawn to the specific dishes mentioned at Nicholas, like the Shawarma or Mixed Kebab with unique dressings, it might be worth trying.
Ambiance and Location: Consider the atmosphere you’re looking for and the convenience of the location.
Nostalgia vs. Novelty: If you have a strong sentimental attachment to Abdul’s, you might enjoy the comfort of a familiar favorite. However, trying something new like Nicholas could offer an exciting change.
Budget: Both seem reasonably priced, but ensure the overall dining experience aligns with your expectations.
Boerwarsays:
Friday, May 24, 2024 at 2:38 pm
Which brand new inflation driver came first? The chicken or the egg?
_____________________
That one at Meredith is dodgy. Happy Hens it’s called. There is a big white chicken out front at the entrance on Ballarat Road.
We get our eggs from the Farmers Market at South Geelong Primary School each fortnight. White Swan eggs from up near the White Swan Reservoir north of Ballarat.
Free range and taste beautiful.
It’s quite good just copying PB comments directly into ChatGPT, as it does a summary of the comment, fact checks it, and provides a conclusion – albeit anodyne.
For example P1’s comment and slab copy/paste at 3.07pm is parsed as:
‘The recent decision by Queensland authorities to reject a plan to inject carbon dioxide into the Great Artesian Basin (GAB) is indeed significant, but it raises further questions and concerns regarding the protection of this vital water resource.
Key Points
Project Rejection:
Plan Details: The proposal involved injecting over 300,000 tonnes of CO2 into the Precipice Sandstone aquifer as part of a three-year trial.
Rejection Basis: The project was rejected due to potential risks to groundwater in the GAB, a crucial water source for much of inland Australia.
Broader Implications:
Queensland Farmers’ Federation Concerns: There is ongoing concern about the broader regulatory framework needed to protect the GAB, as other companies are also exploring similar carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects.
State vs. Federal Regulation: The rejection highlights the need for coordinated regulatory efforts. While Queensland has taken a step, there is a call for federal leadership to ensure comprehensive protection across all states.
Federal Labor’s Role:
Federal Silence: The lack of a strong federal stance on this issue is concerning, given the interconnected nature of the GAB. Protection of such a critical resource should ideally be handled at the national level to ensure uniform standards and regulations.
Potential Action: Federal Labor could address this issue by developing a national policy framework for CCS projects, ensuring that all parts of the GAB are protected uniformly.
Importance of the Great Artesian Basin
The GAB is one of the largest and deepest artesian water basins in the world, providing essential water for agriculture, communities, and ecosystems across multiple states. Its protection is crucial for the sustainability and resilience of many regions.
Conclusion
While the rejection of the carbon storage plan in Queensland is a positive development, it underscores the need for comprehensive and coordinated regulatory measures at both the state and federal levels. Ensuring the protection of the GAB requires federal leadership and clear policies to prevent potentially harmful projects from jeopardizing this invaluable resource.’
News Corp staff are in a panic as the company prepares to announce a reported $65 million worth of job cuts. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the company’s global bosses have arrived at News Corp’s Holt Street headquarters in Sydney for the annual budget meeting, usually held overseas, with top editors at the various capital city mastheads flying in from around the country.
News Corp sources told Crikey staff were frustrated with being drip-fed information about the company’s future via leaks in the Nine newspapers. “We’re getting all these leaks in the AFR, but nothing to staff. It’s so frustrating,” said one source. “It’s crazy, everyone is very conspiratorial. I’ve spent more time talking about the restructure than doing my work this week.”
Staff expect to find out their fate next week, although there is no clarity on a specific announcement date. “I heard we’re all finding out next week. I’ve heard both Wednesday and Monday.” The Financial Review reported earlier this month that News Corp Australia was set to be divided into three divisions — “fast and free”, which includes news.com.au and the e-commerce platforms; “premium communities”, which includes the capital city mastheads and sports; and “prestige”, which accounts for national broadsheet The Australian as well as titles like Vogue Australia. It also reported that beleaguered professional services giant PwC was engaged to lead the restructure process.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/05/24/news-corp-staff-panic-restructure-rumours/
Some might ask:
What’s the incidence of pregnant 9 year olds in Texas, and why?
I’m waiting for a Rex drive-by to see what ChatGPT thinks
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Friday, May 24, 2024 at 3:21 pm
News Corp staff are in a panic as the company prepares to announce a reported $65 million worth of job cuts….’
—————
Being set free will give them all a chance to show their personal resilience and their complete and utter contempt for any support by the nanny state.
Meredith Dairy at Cameron Rd Meredith makes a prime Goat product.
Hopintg those goats are okay.
sprocket_ @ #1394 Friday, May 24th, 2024 – 3:20 pm
So ChatGPT’s summary of my post is three times as long to reach the same conclusion?
The egg came first.
Cat
“How do these people pass Medicine in the first place!?!”
Intelligence does not guarantee sanity or an ethical character. Some people love the attention that comes from saying something controversial. Some people make a career out of it, especially if you are otherwise nobody in terms of your research record or professional appointments.
That being said I just looked up Dr Ingrid Skop. She graduated in medicine from Washington University in St Louise, Missouri. It is the 5th ranked medical school in Missouri, which is one of the poorest States in USA.
In USA you do not necessarily need to be brilliant to get into medical school, especially the lower ranked private schools, where money to pay tuition is the primary criteria. The competition to get a scholarship place at an Ivy League school or top State college is a different matter altogether. She went to neither. It is also nothing like the competition for medicine places in Australia.
So Ms Skop had to have been smart enough to pass high school with the prerequisite subjects passed, but not necessarily anything more. She retired a few years ago, so is not practising, and stepped down from her previous job in some controversy.
Australia has had some similar academics. Climate science denier Ian Plimer still got a tenured position at Uni Adelaide, thanks partly to his ability to bring in industry money.