Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Two new federal polls have similar stories to tell on the primary vote, but differ sharply on preference flows.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor steady on 31%, the Coalition down a point to 34%, the Greens up two to 13% and One Nation down two to 7%, with undecided up three to 7%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has the Coalition maintaining a narrow lead of 47% (down two) to 46% (down one), although these respondent-allocated numbers appear to flatter them — excluding the undecided from the primary votes and applying preference flows from 2022, I get 52.5-47.5 to Labor. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1150.

Further questions relate to expectations for next week’s federal budget, which are not high; concern about crime and safety, including a finding that 59% favour a “focus on enforcement measures” against 41% for the alternative of a “focus on preventative measures”. Strong support was recorded for every one of a range of measures to address family violence and improve safety online, and 70% favoured the eSafety Commissioner’s view that social media platforms needed to remove “dangerous content” over 30% for a view attributed to Elon Musk that doing so was “an attempt to censor the internet and restrict free speech”.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s lead steady at 52-48, though here it seems to be Labor getting the better end of respondent-allocated preferences: on the primary vote, Labor was down one-and-a-half points to 30%, the Coalition was up half to 37%, the Greens were down one to 13% and One Nation was up half to 6%. Based on 2022 preferences, this comes out to around 51-49 in Labor’s favour. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1666.

Nine Newspapers reports quarterly state-level and demographic aggregates from the Resolve Strategic polls from February through to April, the interest of which is limited by the fact that the pollster published breakdowns for the three largest states with the monthly polls. However, we do learn that the poll has Labor at 32% of the primary vote in Western Australia, which compares with 34% for the December quarter and 36.9% at the 2022 election. I hope to be able to provide the remainder of this result later today (UPDATE: The Coalition is on 35%, compared with 34.8% at the election, the Greens 13%, compared with 12.5%, and One Nation 6%, compared with 4.0%). The sample here was a modest 352, with a duly wide margin of error.

Finally, the results of Saturday’s Legislative Council elections in Tasmania were resolved yesterday, with the Greens gaining their first ever seat in the chamber following the retirement of an independent incumbent in the seat of Hobart; Labor losing its northern neighbour Elwick to an independent; and the Liberals retaining the seat of Prosser beyond Hobart’s outskirts. Read all about it at the dedicated post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

698 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. Lordbain, I take it you would in prefer 4 billion people to die of starvation sooner.

    The thing is there is no transitional path for making nitrogenous fertilizers. It takes gas to make it. Without gas, there is no fertilizer. With no fertilizer 4 billion people will starve.

  2. ‘Rewi says:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 3:52 pm

    Maybe Saudi Arabia should be added to Boerwar’s Big List of Bad Places.’
    ————————–
    Yep. The test of whether the pro divestiment protestors are demanding universities to divest their investments and academic links from countries with similar levels of bad behaviour similar to that of Israel.

    I’m more than happy to add Saudi Arabia to that list. There are other possibles of course.

    I now await the demonstrators demanding divestment from Saudi Arabia lest they want to attract criticisms that they have chosen Israel as the ONLY country for which they are demanding divestment because they, the protestors, are anti-semitic.

  3. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:14 pm
    ‘Irene says:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 4:05 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 3:16 pm

    Russia
    China
    Sudan
    Iran
    Turkey
    Yemen
    Syria
    Congo
    Myanmmar

    Arguably all of these countries have human rights abuses and blood on their hands that are at least comparable to that of Israel. If not worse.

    Lordbain says:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 3:23 pm
    Dont forget to add the US and UK to that list BW

    ——————————

    If we are talking about human rights abuses, Australia over the last centuries, and including now, with the woeful treatment of First Nations people, even today, should be included too.

    Over 300 plus massacres, plus many other atrocities. Documented at Newcastle University by lead researcher the late Professor Lyndall Ryan.

    Conveniently not in Australian history books.
    And Israel, since 1948, too. The over 700,000 Palestinians evicted to allow the Zionist State of Israel.
    Ethnic cleansing.’
    ——————-
    My proposition is that protestors seeking divestment, in order to avoid accusations of anti-semitism, should be making the same demands of countries with records that are similar to, or worse, than that of Israel.

    Apart from a bit of fiddling with the list there seems to be an agreement that such countries do exist.

    This leads straight to my point: Why are the demonstrators not demanding divestment from these other countries as well? If there is no satisfactory answer then a reasonable conclusion is that singling out Israel is, in fact antis-semitic.
    ===================================================

    That’s actually rot. People on here criticise the Australian Government everyday. Yet i doubt any of them think the Australian Government is worst in the world. Do you also demand any criticism of the Australian Government must include a list of all worse Governments. Otherwise the poster is Un-Australian?.

  4. We don’t need gas to make nitrogen fertilizers.
    We do need to work asap on the transition from gas feeds to renewable production chains.

  5. Andrew_Earlwood @ #551 Thursday, May 9th, 2024 – 5:23 pm

    If the answer to that is ‘no’ (and in the non magical universe we actually occupy, that is the case), then … well we need gas. Or new coal fired power stations. Or just electricity rationing. Choose your poison sport.

    How about more investment in renewables?

    I notice that was not on your list.

  6. Pied piper says Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:22 pm

    Net contribution by each state to the federation per capita.Wa budget paper.

    WA $12,450
    Nsw $826
    VIC -minus $509
    Sa -minus $7346
    Qld – minus $2284
    Tas – minus $11,836
    NT -minus 24,361.

    And for most of Australia’s history, WA has been in the minus column. WA is riding high at the moment because of the luck of having iron ore and gas. Neither will last forever.

  7. Pied Piper is trying to prove that WA is shonking the stats by not having enough per capitas in the denominator line.

  8. P1:’Would you prefer the term “moron”?’

    Your comment is nonsensical. People who accept the science of global warming can also see not opening new gas fields will condemn 4 billion people to starvation.

    Just because they prefer a different catastrophe to you, doesn’t make them a moron.

    You would prefer mass starvation as soon as possible, others don’t.

  9. “ How about more investment in renewables?

    I notice that was not on your list.”

    Once again, the stupid is strong in you, padwan.

    “Renewables” isnt enough. They have to be firmed. Which means an array of various time and money expense infrastructure … stuff … beyond merely erecting solar arrays and wind farms. Big engineering projects that will take at least 15 years – if we hurry as fast as possible – to do.

    Which leads us back to the first point – there is going to be a gap between firmed power requirements and what ‘firmed renewables’ can deliver between about 2028 (and some would say actually from the end on 2025) and at least 2038. …

  10. Uh… Sohar does the daily drive by on behalf of the Revolution

    The Empire Managers at ANU are absolutely terrified of the New Protest. All ten people out of 19,000 students are scaring the bejesus out of the Man.

  11. Meanwhile the herald sun continues to bag our city and state. Andrew bolt did one of his specials yesterday. Between him, Rita Panahi, Steve Price, Jeff Kennett and ors, the whinging whining and bagging of our state continues in earnest.

    Pathetic to say the least.

    At least the feds are supporting our state

    ———

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/federal-budget-2024-melbournes-north-east-link-to-get-325-billion-boost-from-federal-government/95cd68a0-0d91-4f61-a45b-d31afde61764

  12. Lordbain says Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:30 pm

    Hey bc, thanks for the video, was a good watch

    Deff worth watching for those arguing about how we might survive without opening up more gas exploitation…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_47LWFAG6g

    Rosemary Barnes also sometimes participates in the “Uptime Wind Energy Podcast”. An episode she was on this week (released on the 7th of May and with a long title starting with “Tesla Megapacks Energize Australia”) discussed the new batteries being commissioned for the South West Grid, with some comments on their potential impact on gas generation in WA.

  13. Entropy says:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:25 pm

    That’s actually rot. People on here criticise the Australian Government everyday. Yet i doubt any of them think the Australian Government is worst in the world. Do you also demand any criticism of the Australian Government must include a list of all worse Governments. Otherwise the poster is Un-Australian?’
    —————-
    Prioritizing Israel as the ONLY country in the world worthy of divestment is inexplicable on any rational basis. If that cannot be done then the motives must be anti-semitic, IMO.

    There are countries with much worse records which should be prioritized ahead of Israel.

  14. Leadersays:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:23 pm
    Lordbain, I take it you would in prefer 4 billion people to die of starvation sooner.

    The thing is there is no transitional path for making nitrogenous fertilizers. It takes gas to make it. Without gas, there is no fertilizer. With no fertilizer 4 billion people will starve.
    ===================================================

    You can make Ammonia from Hydrogen gas. You can certainly make green Hydrogen. Therefore you can make green Ammonia. You certainly can make Nitrogen fertiliser if you have Ammonia. You do not need to produce any Carbon in making nitrogen fertiliser. In fact you use up carbon in the Ammonia to nitrate reaction which uses CO2. When it converts it to Urea.

  15. “ Ummm. Batteries?”

    _____

    Oh. My. God.

    Really really really doing a deep dive on stupid tonight, ain’t you P1?

    yes. batteries allow for firming. The issue – as per every one of my posts today – is scale; which is an equation involving both time and cost.

    Also, whilst great for households, and for emergencies (as per tesla’s ‘big battery’ in SA), it is not a good, perhaps not even a realistic, option for attempting to firm a national energy market. Contra things like pumped hydro, or offshore wind farms (which are reliant on the continuation of constant prevailing coastal winds and an absence of political backlash from coastal communities – which is very doubtful).

  16. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:44 pm
    ===================================================

    There are sanctions on Russia for instance. I would rather there was more though. If i wish to post this. I don’t believe i need to make a list of all of countries that should be sanctioned or their products boycotted too along with Z-fascist Russia. I don’t believe i’m antislavic for wanting this either.

  17. Oh, look, Lordbain is back from his Carney logic fails of the morning.

    Show me the groups of university demonstrators who are camping on universities around the world demanding instant divestment from Sudan.

  18. Entropy says:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:50 pm

    Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:44 pm
    ===================================================

    There are sanctions on Russia for instance
    ==============
    The sanctions are imposed by governments.

    Show me the groups of angry university demonstrators who are demanding University administrators divest immediately from Russia.
    … or for that matter from China. A million Uighers in detention camps. The routine murder of political prisoners. The list goes on and on and on and on.

  19. Hey BW… can you point out universities with investments in Sudan, Darfur etc… from which they could divest from? Like, you realise you need to have investments or assets to divest…

  20. Entropy says:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:50 pm

    Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:44 pm
    ===================================================

    There are sanctions on Russia for instance
    ==============
    The sanctions are imposed by governments.

    Show me the groups of angry university demonstrators who are demanding University administrators divest immediately from Russia.
    … or for that matter from China. A million Uighers in detention camps. The routine murder of political prisoners. The list goes on and on and on and on.

  21. ‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:50 pm

    “ Ummm. Batteries?”

    _____

    Oh. My. God.

    Really really really doing a deep dive on stupid tonight, ain’t you P1?
    ….’
    —————–
    P1’s vision splendid: Tens of thousands of eco tourists on giant hamster wheel generators.

  22. Climate scientists and global energy experts tell us opening new gas projects is disastrous for our climate, our children and future generations.In the Future Gas Strategy released today the Govt ignores this advice and proposes further expansion.https://t.co/iWUwSxxTus— David Pocock (@DavidPocock) May 8, 2024

    Backing the expansion of the fossil fuel industry in 2024 is morally bankrupt, negligent and just plain stupid given we export 75% of our gas.We could legislate a domestic reservation policy and have enough gas for our transition, rather than locking in emissions for decades.— David Pocock (@DavidPocock) May 8, 2024

    This shows a tragic lack of imagination and ambition – speeding up electrification of households and businesses should be the response to warnings of potential shortfalls. Electrification could save the average household $2-5k per year, every year.— David Pocock (@DavidPocock) May 8, 2024

    Yep.

  23. P1 please reserve your personal abuse of “Cretin” “Imbecile” and “Moron” to people who cannot tell the difference between gas, as a fossil fuel to be burnt, and gas, as a feed stock for the production of agricultural fertilizer.

  24. I wonder if General Angus Campbell has been reading PB?


    In an address to the Air and Space Power Conference in Canberra on Thursday afternoon, the Australian defence force’s chief general Angus Campbell said Aukus would deliver “military and strategic capability” to the country’s military but also offer “extraordinary benefits across our entire economic environment”.

    He continued:

    For those who ran to their pen, and within days, declared defeat and ‘this cannot be done’, I would ask you to reflect on so many other occasions when Australians, cringing, have disappointed themselves – by declaring the Sydney Harbour Bridge’s two halves will fall into the ocean. The Sydney Opera House will never be the greatest opera house on the planet. The Snowy Mountains hydro scheme will fail somewhere in the mountains. The Collins class submarine? Worst submarine on the planet.

    Campbell challenged detractors of the multibillion-dollar technology-sharing deal with the US and UK to drop the criticism and get on board.

    If you are one of those writers, put down your pen for a moment. Knock on Admiral [Jonathan] Mead’s door and ask ‘do you have a job for me?’ Get in the ring. Give it a go because we are delivering nuclear-powered submarine capability to this nation, full stop. And it will be an extraordinary program and we will deliver because I don’t cringe when thinking about the defence of this nation. And I don’t think anybody else should either.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/may/09/penny-wong-israel-rafah-labor-gas-strategy-budget-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-coalition#top-of-blog

  25. gas does play an important role in the national electricity market (NEM), but the quantity is small, and *declining*.…just 4.6% of electricity over the last 12 months.we're on track for the lowest #gas power generation since FY2004. https://t.co/i5xFiigQJa pic.twitter.com/kB869P0PT1— simon holmes à court (@simonahac) May 9, 2024

    Labor’s plan is all about export profits for their fossil fuel donors and protecting Labor HQ fossil fuel investments.

    Labor is an utterly corrupted political outfit along with the L/NP.

  26. Angus Campbell – who is retiring this year – gives a subtle boot up Dutton’s woke-phobia..

    Campbell discouraged attacks on the younger, more “consciously aware” generations after recently spending some time with new recruits.

    It is easy and comfortable to criticise younger, newer generations, but that would be a mistake. They are far better educated. They are far more connected. They are far more socially, consciously aware and active and are far more engaged in the world than my generation and I ever were.

    The defence force chief was in charge while former defence minister, now opposition leader, Peter Dutton declared a war on the military’s “woke agenda”.

    On Thursday, Campbell said he had “great deal of confidence” the new young recruits would “realise an expression of our force and the power it can generate not yet ever seen”.

  27. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:53 pm
    Entropy says:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:50 pm

    Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:44 pm
    ===================================================

    There are sanctions on Russia for instance
    ==============
    The sanctions are imposed by governments.

    Show me the groups of angry university demonstrators who are demanding University administrators divest immediately from Russia.

    ====================================================

    “Cambridge has divested before, so why the reluctance now? When Russia invaded Ukraine, Cambridge cut ties. Cambridge has also committed to diversity from fossil fuel,” said the student, who preferred not to be named.”
    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/pro-palestine-protest-cambridge-university-cut-ties-with-russia-so-why-not-israel-/3213322

    https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2022/03/01/students-rally-support-ukraine

    https://news.northeastern.edu/2022/02/24/stunned-students-protest-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/

    “Accuse your opponent of what you do yourself”:

    Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 5:57 pm
    Interesting to see the deflections coming thick and fast from Entropy and Lordbain.

  28. Andrew_Earlwood @ #576 Thursday, May 9th, 2024 – 5:50 pm

    “ Ummm. Batteries?”

    _____

    Oh. My. God.

    Really really really doing a deep dive on stupid tonight, ain’t you P1?

    yes. batteries allow for firming. The issue – as per every one of my posts today – is scale; which is an equation involving both time and cost.

    Ok, so you call me stupid, and then acknowledge that I’m actually correct. What did I miss here?

    Scale? Which you admit is just another word for Time and Money.

    Also, whilst great for households, and for emergencies (as per tesla’s ‘big battery’ in SA), it is not a good, perhaps not even a realistic, option for attempting to firm a national energy market. Contra things like pumped hydro, or offshore wind farms (which are reliant on the continuation of constant prevailing coastal winds and an absence of political backlash from coastal communities – which is very doubtful).

    The Big Battery seem to be working out as a key part of the firming solution in SA. And they are very quick to build, unlike – say – pumped hydro or offshore wind farms. Or new gas plants. You can have batteries as quick as you like. So all it takes is Money. Not even Time.

    So let’s say Batteries for any immediate needs, and then Pumped Hydro and Offshore Wind for longer term needs.

    Or are you going to just find yet another reason to call anyone “stupid” who disagrees with Labor’s stupid policy of extending our dependence on fossil fuels out beyond 2050, and possibly longer (if they can get away with it)?

  29. Leader @ #586 Thursday, May 9th, 2024 – 6:00 pm

    P1 please reserve your personal abuse of “Cretin” “Imbecile” and “Moron” to people who cannot tell the difference between gas, as a fossil fuel to be burnt, and gas, as a feed stock for the production of agricultural fertilizer.

    So you are fully in support of banning the burning of fossil fuels merely for energy?

  30. Equating criticism of the Aukus subs to criticism of the Sydney Harbour Bridge because the two halves will fall in the water demonstrates how little Campbell understands the criticism of Aukus.

    No one seriously suggested, I imagine, that if the 2 halves of the Bridge actually didn’t fall in the water they might have a use in connecting Sydney.

    The major criticisms of Aukus, unlike SMRs, is not that the nuclear subs will fill with water. The criticism is that they won’t defend the Nation from any imaginable serious threat to the Nation in any meaningful way.

  31. Player Onesays:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 6:21 pm
    Leader @ #586 Thursday, May 9th, 2024 – 6:00 pm

    P1 please reserve your personal abuse of “Cretin” “Imbecile” and “Moron” to people who cannot tell the difference between gas, as a fossil fuel to be burnt, and gas, as a feed stock for the production of agricultural fertilizer.

    So you are fully in support of banning the burning of fossil fuels merely for energy?
    ===============================================

    Except as i posted earlier you don’t need fossil fuels to make fertilizer either. You can make nitrogen fertilizer quite easily using green Hydrogen instead.

  32. Entropy @ #596 Thursday, May 9th, 2024 – 6:28 pm

    Player Onesays:
    Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 6:21 pm
    Leader @ #586 Thursday, May 9th, 2024 – 6:00 pm

    P1 please reserve your personal abuse of “Cretin” “Imbecile” and “Moron” to people who cannot tell the difference between gas, as a fossil fuel to be burnt, and gas, as a feed stock for the production of agricultural fertilizer.

    So you are fully in support of banning the burning of fossil fuels merely for energy?
    ===============================================

    Except as i posted earlier you don’t need fossil fuels to make fertilizer either. You can make nitrogen fertilizer quite easily using green Hydrogen instead.

    I was trying to give our Dear Leader enough rope … 🙂

  33. What is the carbon emissions cost of using gas to make fertiliser over the manufacture of fertiliser by the least costly method?

  34. Sceptic @ #467 Thursday, May 9th, 2024 – 1:47 pm

    Antiwar Protest Camp in Dublin Is Dismantled After College Agrees to Divest.

    Students against the war in Gaza began taking down the camp after Trinity College Dublin said it would divest from three Israeli companies.

    AND NO it’s NOT antisemitic!

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/world/europe/ireland-trinity-college-protests.html

    The Likudniks are terrified of the last example of student ‘Divestment Politics’ (the anti-apartheid campaigns of the 1970) because they worked – just like the Civil Rights movement. The same will happen now – just not evenly distributed.

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