RedBridge Group: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)

Labor maintains its lead in the latest RedBridge poll, while YouGov finds Peter Dutton with a solid lead as preferred prime minister in his home state of Queensland.

The latest federal poll from RedBridge Group has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, as compared with 51.2-48.8 at the last such poll in early February. The primary votes are Labor 33% (steady), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 7% (not specified previously). The full release offers detailed demographic breakdowns and much else besides. Interestingly, both Labor and Coalition voters who report being in financial stress also report being less firm in their voting intention. Questions on immigration include a finding that 72% believe the current rate is making housing less affordable for young people, with only 16% disagreeing, and similar results for the proposition that “Australian cities are too crowded”. The poll was conducted April 12 to 21 from a sample of 1529.

The Courier-Mail also published a finding on Saturday from the YouGov Queensland poll that a preferred prime minister question showed Peter Dutton leading Anthony Albanese 45-37, comparing favourably with the 41-41 result from the January-to-March Newspoll breakdown.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,654 thoughts on “RedBridge Group: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Talking of Gallagher, should Reynolds unwisely decide to return for her hat. I wonder if Higgins defence will raise Reynolds lies over Kitching?. While probably not directly related to the defamation it would go to character plus show the Reynolds was quite happy to lie about these events for a political attack. Obviously Kitching can’t testify about Reynolds fabricated lies. She has signed a affidavit to that affect though. Which i assume could be presented in court. While Gallagher can testify she was not told till after the interview was conducted (4 days before aired but after interview taped). Not 2 weeks prior as Reynolds claimed. Along with the illegal phone transcript backing tabled in dodgy Bruce’s defamation case. That would show the claims of weaponization is totally false. As you can’t weaponize an interview you didn’t know about till after it occurred.

    While i think it would be a mistake for Reynolds to return for her hat. I think it would be a good opportunity to show that the only “mean girl” in this whole sordid affair was Reynolds with her political machinations.


  2. Dandy Murray says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 2:06 pm

    “Moving aside the “did he or didnt he”…”

    Honestly, no one gives a shit.

    That about sums it up. Sarah Williams has managed to bury the issue, but why? What is she about?

  3. Intentionally embarrassintg a young DV survivor in front of a live audience doesn’t qualify as violence against women?

  4. Honestly, and speaking from experience, I can see how Sarah Williams is jumpy around powerful men, even Albo. Lord knows it took me about 8-9 years after my husband died before I could cope with men being verbally aggressive towards me, and I still can’t really but I have developed a carapace against it now at least. So, anyway, the last thing I saw was the PM reaching out to Sarah Williams today and I hope she realises that he is being genuine. It certainly came across that way to me. Certainly not patronising.

  5. Wat Tyler says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 2:06 pm
    It’s not you, C@t.

    If you must know, it’s you, TPOF. Every post I see of yours seems to just be pure vitriol.

    ____________________________________________

    Yes I thought so. That’s why I asked. Where’s the vitriol in my post at 2.07 (which I posted before your response)?

    And the “worst partisan poster on this site” is not vitriol?

    What do you classify as vitriol? Perhaps you can point to which of my posts on this site today qualifies as vitriol.

    And how did an accusation of partisanship morph into an accusation of vitriol?

    Wat, if you don’t like “vitriol” on this site, don’t use it yourself. It’s just hypocritical.

  6. I’m confused what were the five demands that the organiser of the rally wanted from the govt?

    I can’t get any clarity from any of the reporting.

  7. When did you genuinely give a shit, BT?

    A. About 5 hours ago, when the story was posted.
    B. None of the above.

  8. Somehow oblivious to the pearl clutching, boviating Bludgers, Albo just doing PM things; meeting with the South Korean FM and Defence Minister..

  9. Even if it wasnt patronising, Sarah Williams is doubling down;

    “The organiser of an anti-domestic violence rally in Canberra says she’s been traumatised by the prime minister’s behaviour, after Anthony Albanese took to the stage and claimed he’d been dissuaded from speaking, making her burst into tears in front of hundreds of protesters.

    Sarah Williams, founder of the What Were You Wearing (WWYW) movement and organiser of the Canberra rally, said no-one from the Prime Minister’s Office had reached out to her after the incident on Sunday. ”

    And

    The prime minister made a round of media appearances on Monday morning and avoided questions about Williams’ claim he lied in his speech.

    “Look, good on Sarah for organising the rally yesterday. This is an issue that is a national scourge and a national crisis. I was happy to just attend as a participant or happy to speak, either way,” he told Seven’s Sunrise program when asked to respond.

    Williams said that rather than feeling supported by Albanese, she’s fearful his refusal to address what happened will mean she’ll face harassment and ridicule.

    “By him not just admitting and taking accountability that he lied … that’s not supporting me, that’s potentially causing me bad press, or haters to come after me and be like ‘Why did you lie about him?’” she said.

    I look forward to the usual responses… but hey, who cares what Sarah Williams has to say, shes only a “politically inexperienced individual who has diverted the issue”…

  10. It doesn’t really help the cause at all – reducing violence against women. The day after a bunch of major rallies the focus should be on solutions and not arguments over speaking.
    Even if you nose is out of joint, the big picture needs to be kept in focus.

  11. You have to watch the video – it’s an absolute classic – Albotross says whatever he says and the woman next to him just says quite clearly “That’s a lie”.

  12. Dandy Murraysays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 2:16 pm
    When did you genuinely give a shit, BT?

    A. About 5 hours ago, when the story was posted.
    B. None of the above.
    ==================================================

    Judging by his posts yesterday. If it was female on male domestic violence he would of. He doesn’t seem that much interested in the 19 out of 20 cases that are not though.

  13. As per usual our msm and others wish to politicise domestic violence.

    All I give a shit about is there is meaningful things are done to facilitate the safety of women and by extension, children in this space.

    Having said that. I was sitting in public area at local shopping centre today. Had a conversation with a woman who was in her mid eighties. She was well dressed and well spoken. Her concern was not about instability of the world and climate change. No it was youth crime and bad manners of kids today.

    Sweet Jebus.

    I don’t know what her world looked like when she was a child, but I can tell you for me personally and those of my ilk, it was like the frickin Wild West. And the police were not your friend.

    People really get caught up in believing in the mythical good old days.

  14. https://archive.is/jkxtT

    EXCLUSIVE
    By michael mckenna
    10:46AM April 29, 2024

    Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has launched legal action against the Liberal National Party after he was last year booted off the party’s Senate ticket in a controversial internal ballot.
    In an extraordinary move, the first-term Senator has filed a Supreme Court lawsuit naming members of the LNP’s powerful state executive after the governing body this month rejected his appeal to the outcome of the ballot in which he cited “voter irregularities”.
    Senator Rennick lost his spot by just three votes to party treasurer Stuart Fraser in the preselection vote on July 14, last year.
    Members of the LNP’s state council had backed Mr Fraser 131 votes to Senator Rennick’s 128.

  15. I think you’re overstating things a bit.
    Could be.
    Albo might have refrained from pointing out that the organisers didn’t want him to speak, even if it was true. Not a great look.
    If the issue is getting away from Labor, which was always going to happen, why did he take the stage when he might have let Katy enjoy the limelight?

  16. I should add I’m not referring to my family life. My parents were amazing, and so were my extended family.
    I’m referring to how we were treated in school by those in authority. Catching public transport.. In the work place. The whole box and dice.

    Females didn’t have a good time of it. Thank goodness. Things have changed.

  17. Badthinker says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 2:11 pm
    Intentionally embarrassintg a young DV survivor in front of a live audience doesn’t qualify as violence against women?

    …unless you’re a LNP Politician – then the gloves are off. Looking at your watch, wearing a blue tie, awkward handshakes at Government House with deliberately rude people – all misogyny. All of it!

  18. From what I can tell, the 5 demands from the rally organisers required an immediate agreement from the PM and Gallagher – failing which, the invitation to speak would be withdrawn.

    Williams used part of her 40-minute speech on Sunday to ask Albanese and Gallagher to signal thumbs up or down if they would agree to the organisation’s demands: to declare a domestic violence national emergency; to block the media from publishing images of victims for 48 hours; mandatory victim-blaming prevention training; alternative reporting options for victims; and increased funding.

    Albanese and Gallagher were heckled when they did not respond to this request, but the prime minister rose to speak after Williams told the crowd: “We gave the opportunity to Anthony Albanese to make comments today and we didn’t get any.”

    Irrespective of the worth of the 5 demands, and whether the PM agreed or not, the gathered crowd were entitled to hear what their elected leader had to say.

    Gallagher told ABC’s Radio National Breakfast that she had wished to speak but decided to come in support after they could not agree on the terms.

    “I had wanted to speak, it was a rally in my hometown and I thought that was appropriate, but you know, there was some concern about … the five key asks that were being sought at the rally and you know, a commitment that they were seeking from us, and we weren’t able to reach agreement on how to proceed,” she said.

    “In the end, we decided to just walk and attend the rally … as a sign of respect and it’s a sign of solidarity with women around the country.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-full-out-lie-five-key-demands-at-centre-of-pm-rally-furore-20240429-p5fn8g.html

  19. Victoria says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 2:27 pm
    I should add I’m not referring to my family life. My parents were amazing, and so were my extended family.
    I’m referring to how we were treated in school by those in authority. Catching public transport.. In the work place. The whole box and dice.

    Females didn’t have a good time of it. Thank goodness. Things have changed.

    ———

    For many, times have got worse at school.

    ‘Most Australian parents take for granted that their child will attend school and receive an education.

    But for parents of children with a disability – whether it’s developmental, intellectual or physical – that is not a given.

    Why the Guardian is investigating the deep failings in Australia’s school System.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/29/why-the-guardian-is-investigating-the-deep-failings-in-australias-school-system

    A Guardian investigation has uncovered deep failings in Australia’s education system, which is struggling to cope with the soaring number of children with disabilities, now 40% more than in 2017.

    Children as young as five with disabilities are among the many thousands of primary school students receiving suspensions each year, while many others are only permitted to attend school part-time.

    At the same time, burnt-out teachers report that the demand to manage children with disabilities has become overwhelming. Resources are stretched thin, and teachers feel “everyone is getting a raw deal”.

    One teacher said some of the classes at her Port Macquarie school have two-thirds of students needing an adjustment for a disability – a confronting reality for any educator.

    Autism and ADHD rates among children in schools are at record highs. In classrooms today, an estimated 4% of seven- to 14-year-olds have a primary diagnosis of autism, while between 6% and 10% of children have ADHD.

    Compounding these challenges is the deeply inequitable school funding arrangements that have characterised school funding for many years – an inequity that is worsening despite the promise of the Gonski reforms.

    New data obtained by Guardian Australia shows that non-government schools are overwhelmingly benefiting from a federal support payment that is designed to assist schools with children with a disability, with some private schools receiving up to six times more money than public schools.’

    Deeply inequitable school funding with some private schools receiving up to six times more money than public schools.

    What is Minister Jason Clare, and NDIS Minister Bill Shorten doing about this?

    Seems nothing. Private schools may donate to Labor. Returning to Labor some of the taxpayer money received as a ‘thank you’. Certainly shows Shorten has no interest in children with a disability when they attend a public school.

    So no help for them. There is your answer. And because of the meanness of public school funding by the Albanese Labor government some of these children, often suspended, learning very little, may turn into adults who become problems in the future in society.

    The violence we see now by many likely to increase.

  20. On other topics; the Federal Court is in Cairns for a bit hearing about a climate change class action bought about by Paul Kabai and Uncle Pabai Pabai on behalf of Australia’s First Nations people. Legal teams will make their closing arguments throughout the week, and I suspect (based on listening in today on the stream) the findings wont be to the Commonwealths joy…

    And ANU has started their own Pro-Palestine encampment (in line with Melbs and Sydn unis); the ongoing conflict in Gaza will not be a major vote swayer here in Aus, but given voting fragmentation, every little bit counts for the major parties.

  21. Lordbainsays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 2:18 pm
    Even if it wasnt patronising, Sarah Williams is doubling down;
    ===================================================

    We need honest dialogue to deal with the issue of DV. It does appear Sarah Williams was not providing honest dialogue here though. She directly contradicted herself on stage. Nearly anyone would be confused as to how you deal with a person like that. It is a bit like dealing with @Irene’s posts on here.

  22. Fun Fact:

    Defenestrated QLD LNP Senator Gerard Rennick regularly leads the ‘Facebook engagement by political figures’ League Table.

    His crackpot conspiracy meanderings must be striking a cord with that demographic.

  23. Victoria says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 2:24 pm

    I’ve always had a good relationship with the coppers – even when they were threatened for arrest in the middle of a street brawl in Seymour, Victoria when I questioned why they’d nicked my mate next to me. So good that I married a Copper’s daughter.

  24. Brutal bashing at the home last week in Perth of an elderly couple bashed severely and robbed 200 k.

    West Aus newspaper just revealed one of the three people charged is a ex immigration detainee one of 149 the high court released.Fed labor asleep at the wheel.

    This is another vote killer in WA for Fed labor.

  25. Entropy

    This speaker reminds me of some in days gone by. I’ve attended rallies for different issues. Only to be screamed at by certain speakers for the invasion of the country by white people.

    We know that happened and having the majority of people at these rallies being white, doesn’t help move things in a positive direction.

    I have found the rallies counterproductive, and I don’t go anymore.

  26. Entropy, point out where she contradicted herself?

    As noted by sprocket above, there were conditions on members of the government talking (that were not met, and confirmed by both parties), and yet Albanese still decided to talk. Again, and I quote from Albo himself; “To be clear, we did ask to speak, me and

    Finance Minister

    Katy

    Gallagher

    , and we were told that’s not possible. And that’s fine, we respect the organisers’ right to do that.” … while speaking. And they were given terms they did not agree to.

  27. FUBAR says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 2:28 pm

    …unless you’re a LNP Politician – then the gloves are off. Looking at your watch, wearing a blue tie, awkward handshakes at Government House with deliberately rude people – all misogyny. All of it!

    _____________________________________________

    What FUBAR didn’t mention about awkward handshakes at Government House is that the “deliberately rude” person he refers to had, moments before been called over by the Prime Minister like like she was some dog in training and not the outgoing Australian of the Year. And yes, I have seen the footage. Often left out of the framing by those who hate a victim of sexual assault if their conduct upsets their beloved political party (speaking of “partisan”).

    As for looking at your watch, I don’t know the particular situation referred to but I have been affronted by someone looking at their watch while I was speaking directly to them about a serious matter – it was clear that the message was “how long do I have to keep listening to this shit in order to pretend that I listened to this shit”. In many situations it shows nothing but contempt.

  28. Irene says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 2:29 pm

    New data obtained by Guardian Australia shows that non-government schools are overwhelmingly benefiting from a federal support payment that is designed to assist schools with children with a disability, with some private schools receiving up to six times more money than public schools.’

    Deliberate misinformation – but I wouldn’t expect anything less from you. Private schools get less Government funding than Government schools. Funding outside of State and Federal funding is a choice of the parents and supporters.

  29. Irenesays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 2:29 pm
    ==============================================

    You continue to raise broad general issues that society has been tackling for ages. Then in your total partisan way blame it on the current 2 year old Government.

    If you believe the Government is doing so poorly on the issues you raise. Could you point out which party you believe would be doing a better job if given power?.

  30. Irene

    Good luck taking on the Catholic School system who continue to retain carve outs on the funding system due to their political power. Then add in all the other Independent schools and see how you go politically. Genius.

  31. Leaders from the Torres Strait are suing the Federal Govt for failing to protect their communities from climate change.With final hearings this week, for the communities involved, the outcome is a question of survival.A thread https://t.co/EjRiSLeDfo #auspol #climate— Australia Institute (@TheAusInstitute) April 29, 2024

    There’s no doubt that Govt policy settings have and continue to play a part in climate change.

  32. Gillard didn’t like men looking at their watches.

    Can’t think why you’d want to check the time when she was banging on.

  33. Lordbainsays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 2:37 pm
    Entropy, point out where she contradicted herself?
    ===================================================

    When she told the crowd she didn’t want him to speak. Then called Albo a liar for acknowledging that. It is pretty well documented. See “Mostly Interested” post at 12:59 pm for example.

  34. Someone needs to point out to those moppets at the Gradian that we don’t have an Australian school system, we have 6 States School systems and one Territory system. The NT uses the SA system. Most of the money to fund schools come from the states who have no obligation to put any money into privet schools . If you have a problem with school funding, which we all should have, we need to write to our local state MPs to complain about it. Gaslighting the people by blaming the level of government not responsible for the problem just because you hate the ALP will not solve the problem. Pick up your act Gradian we deserve better news coverage than the crap you are serving up right now.

  35. Lars Von Triersays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 2:38 pm
    Entropy do you get a special prize or something for defending everything?
    ========================================================

    I don’t defend everything. For example i have never defended anything you have ever posted. Something are just indefensible plus i keep to defending the truth only.

  36. I mean he did lie about not speaking though; theres enough reports showing he wasnt meant to speak, had said he wasnt going to, and then stated the only reason he wasnt going to was because hew as asked not to (again ignoring he was asked to meet certain criteria before he could speak that he chose not to).

  37. The fallout from the blue-on-blue fiasco continues to play out with the lawyers – at least those not doing pro bono for Lehrmann – continuing to trouser taxpayers money…

    A group of Australian federal police officers have launched a defamation case against the ACT government in relation to Shane Drumgold’s complaint about their handling of the Bruce Lehrmann prosecution.

    In December 2022 Guardian Australia revealed that Drumgold, then the director of public prosecutions, had complained that officers engaged in “a very clear campaign to pressure” him not to prosecute the alleged rape of Brittany Higgins, saying there was “inappropriate interference” and he felt investigators “clearly aligned with the successful defence of this matter” during the trial.

    Drumgold sent the letter to the ACT police chief on 1 November 2022, just after the collapse of the Lehrmann trial, at which the former Liberal staffer pleaded innocent to the alleged rape

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/29/afp-defamation-case-2022-bruce-lehrmann-trial-ntwnfb

  38. How droll Entropy. I think you know the point I am making. Anyways if it makes you happy being in the Albo/ALP is always right whatever the circumstances camp carry on I guess.

  39. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 3:01 pm
    The fallout from the blue-on-blue fiasco continues to play out with the lawyers – at least those not doing pro bono for Lehrmann – continuing to trouser taxpayers money…

    “A group of Australian federal police officers have launched a defamation case against the ACT government in relation to Shane Drumgold’s complaint about their handling of the Bruce Lehrmann prosecution.

    In December 2022 Guardian Australia revealed that Drumgold, then the director of public prosecutions, had complained that officers engaged in “a very clear campaign to pressure” him not to prosecute the alleged rape of Brittany Higgins, saying there was “inappropriate interference” and he felt investigators “clearly aligned with the successful defence of this matter” during the trial.

    Drumgold sent the letter to the ACT police chief on 1 November 2022, just after the collapse of the Lehrmann trial, at which the former Liberal staffer pleaded innocent to the alleged rape”

    ____________________________________________

    The beauty of suing the ACT government and not, say, Drumgold personally is that the ACT has to act as a model litigant and look to settle if possible rather than go to trial – especially if it cheaper to settle than to go to trial and win. I was thinking that the police concerned might not be all that keen on getting their day in court but would still like a payout. Just speculation on my part.

  40. Lars Von Triersays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 3:02 pm
    How droll Entropy. I think you know the point I am making.
    =================================================

    I understand your point. On a political blog you are not pleased that people support a different side or view than you. Though instead of arguing your alternative point of view. You prefer to throw shade on them instead.

  41. Aliebanese

    “One of the rally’s organisers Sarah Williams can be heard in the background responding: “That’s a lie, that’s a full out lie.””

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-29/albanese-plays-down-claim-lied-women-rally-invitation-to-speak/103778800?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=link

    Describing women as “emotional”.

    I thought that was on the verboten list as well? No?

    We mere males are not mind readers.

  42. TPOF says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 3:07 pm

    “ I was thinking that the police concerned might not be all that keen on getting their day in court but would still like a payout.”

    How to sledge the coppers because you think they are shit without saying they are shit. Classy.

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