Morgan: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

The weekly Roy Morgan brings Labor slightly good news on two-party preferred, but bad news on the primary vote.

There being nothing else on in the world of polling this week, the weekly Roy Morgan gets a rare guernsey. After a tied result last time, Labor recovers a two-party preferred lead of 51-49, despite equalling their worst primary vote result for the term, down one-and-a-half to 30%. The Coalition is also down half a point, to 37.5%, with Labor’s two-party result benefiting from a one-and-a-half point rise in the Greens to 15.5%, their equal best result for the term, and a one point drop for One Nation to 3.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1677.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,864 thoughts on “Morgan: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 36 of 38
1 … 35 36 37 38

  2. frednk @ #1746 Tuesday, April 9th, 2024 – 7:09 pm

    Solar panels are advancing at a pretty good pace. It is the last plant built that will be the most advanced.
    China’s plants will get old just like our did.

    It’s interesting P! has so little faith in our abilities and wants us to continue exporting rocks.

    Play to your strengths.

  4. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:01 pm
    Entropy – yes I was commenting on the rape trial. I don’t understand what if anything this has to do with the libel case.
    ==================================================

    It was never raised in the rape trial but documents in the libel case have raised it.

    “There is an entry that appears to be a record made by a senior AFP officer (Leanne Cross) of a meeting with the Minister (Linda) Reynolds and Fiona Brown on the 4th of April 2019.

    “That record states, ‘I also have concerns from info I heard that this may have happened before and it could happen again.’ (I was referring to info that the alleged victim may have been drugged.)”

    So it appears either Reynolds or Brown refer to the possibility of it?. Brittany Higgins then puts in a submission to the libel case. Which includes how she wished she had been informed of this too.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/courts-law/brittany-higgins-raises-the-question-of-whether-she-was-drugged-on-night-of-alleged-rape/news-story/bed943b3a8bc9cae1491a879515bf39c

  6. Its not a matter of “faith” in the Australian workforce; its scale and experience. There are roughly 3 million chinese citizens employed alone in making solar panels (approx 80 percent of the global workforce of this industry). Over the last 10 years the Chinese government has invested 10 billion dollars. So to compete, the Australian government is starting basically from scratch, and would need the following;

    approx 3 million workers.
    a further invested 9 billion dollars.

    And thats just to get on an even footing, ignoring existing infrastructure, ignoring existing skill sets.

  7. At 27, I might’ve considered what was available at the time.

    By the way, WB, have you considered nath’s return? I’d like to see him back. I mean to say, the constant of the Labor/Green dichotomy has become a trifle boring.

  9. ‘Lordbain says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:20 pm

    Its not a matter of “faith” in the Australian workforce; its scale and experience. There are roughly 3 million chinese citizens employed alone in making solar panels (approx 80 percent of the global workforce of this industry). Over the last 10 years the Chinese government has invested 10 billion dollars. So to compete, the Australian government is starting basically from scratch, and would need the following;

    approx 3 million workers.
    a further invested 9 billion dollars.

    And thats just to get on an even footing, ignoring existing infrastructure, ignoring existing skill sets.’
    ———————–
    Loser vision statement.

  12. Mavissays:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:22 pm
    At 27, I might’ve considered what was available at the time.

    By the way, WB, have you considered nath’s return? I’d like to see him back. I mean to say, the constant of the Labor/Green dichotomy has become a trifle boring.
    ================================================

    You need to ask for Macarthur too. So you can’t be accused of bias.

  13. ‘Lordbain says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:26 pm

    Hey Boerwar, where are we going to find 3 million workers for the solar panel manufacturing production chain’
    ————
    Thick it is, then.

  15. Lordbainsays:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:26 pm

    Hey Boerwar, where are we going to find 3 million workers for the solar panel manufacturing production chain?

    Albo replies:
    Hold my beer!

  16. Lordbainsays:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:20 pm

    Its not a matter of “faith” in the Australian workforce; its scale and experience. There are roughly 3 million chinese citizens employed alone in making solar panels (approx 80 percent of the global workforce of this industry). Over the last 10 years the Chinese government has invested 10 billion dollars. So to compete, the Australian government is starting basically from scratch, and would need the following;

    approx 3 million workers.
    a further invested 9 billion dollars.

    And thats just to get on an even footing, ignoring existing infrastructure, ignoring existing skill sets.

    We are not talking about manufacturing solar panels for the entire world, but for the Australian market and any overseas markets who want to buy them.

    Who said we have to compete with China or emulate their output?

  17. Labor will be happy when Higgins gets off the news but the Reynolds case and the nutter Bruce court cases means it ain’t going anywhere .Everytime 2 million payout is mentioned damages fed labor.

  18. Socratessays:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 6:14 pm
    My main point here is to say that multiple problems evolved over a decade+ of neglect. They won’t be fixed in just a few years. To promise otherwise is not honest.
    _____________________
    Don’t you just love the lowering of expectations.
    It tells you that it’s all become a bit too hard or that they are all out of ideas.

  19. Been There.

    Are we developing a solar panel industry for energy independence/tech development, or are we doing it as genuine export?

    if the former, then its a good idea… however, per the announcement itself;

    “We have every metal and critical mineral necessary to be a central player in the net zero transformation, and a proven track record as a reliable energy producer and exporter,” Albanese said.

    So theres the hope to export some of our panels. So we need to either have quality goods, or mass produced goods at a cheap/acceptable cost for the buyer. Given we do not have the skill (yet, it could be developed but that would take time), then we either subsidise the industry (again, i have no issue with that), or we acknowledge we would be competing with established exporters, who can rely on established economies of scale.

  20. Been There says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:33 pm

    Who said we have to compete with China or emulate their output?

    We are going to make more expensive products with minimal differentiation from their cheaper competitors and expect to make a profit. Genius.

  21. B. S. Fairmansays:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:13 pm
    I wonder what the odds of the federal courts’ YouTube channel crashing?
    _____________________
    There might be a play off at ‘The Masters’
    I know which one I will be watching.
    Imagine if Min Woo Lee or Cameron Smith is in it. The whole country will be glued to thier TV sets.

  22. Entropy:

    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:26 pm

    ‘You need to ask for Macarthur too. So you can’t be accused of bias.’

    Two different kettles of fish: nath’s witty & informed whereas Macarthur has too much skin in the game to be objective. That said, I’d personally welcome both of them back, subject to the condition that they accept the commenting guidelines. I think I’m off.

  23. Mavissays:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:45 pm
    Entropy:

    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:26 pm

    ‘You need to ask for Macarthur too. So you can’t be accused of bias.’

    Two different kettles of fish: nath’s witty & informed whereas Macarthur has too much skin in the game to be objective. That said, I’d personally welcome both of them back, subject to the condition that they accept the commenting guidelines. I think I’m off.
    ===========================================

    Fair enough, i quite liked both their posts in general.

  24. Mavis @ #1771 Tuesday, April 9th, 2024 – 7:45 pm

    Entropy:

    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:26 pm

    ‘You need to ask for Macarthur too. So you can’t be accused of bias.’

    Two different kettles of fish: nath’s witty & informed whereas Macarthur has too much skin in the game to be objective. That said, I’d personally welcome both of them back, subject to the condition that they accept the commenting guidelines. I think I’m off.

    My memory of Nath’s demise was that William indicated it was permanent.
    Then again my memory is no longer my strong suit 🙂

  26. Pied Piper.says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:34 pm
    Labor will be happy when Higgins gets off the news but the Reynolds case and the nutter Bruce court cases means it ain’t going anywhere .Everytime 2 million payout is mentioned damages fed labor.
    =============================================

    2 million payout for a rape victim is not excessive. Particularly as Morrison claimed it was a result of a nightmare of a workplace. Everyone knows the LNP Government are responsible for this payout. As they told us that themselves.

    “Prime Minister Scott Morrison has made a personal apology in Parliament to former federal government staffer Brittany Higgins but those who have been assaulted and harassed in Canberra say while the words are important they are empty unless they’re backed by action.”

    “I’m sorry to Ms Higgins for the terrible things that took place here. And the place that should have been a place of safety and contribution turned out to be a nightmare.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-parliament-to-acknowledge-harm-caused-by-sexual-harassment-assault-and-bullying-20220208-p59unk.html

  28. ‘Been There says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:33 pm

    Lordbainsays:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:20 pm

    Its not a matter of “faith” in the Australian workforce; its scale and experience. There are roughly 3 million chinese citizens employed alone in making solar panels (approx 80 percent of the global workforce of this industry). Over the last 10 years the Chinese government has invested 10 billion dollars. So to compete, the Australian government is starting basically from scratch, and would need the following;

    approx 3 million workers.
    a further invested 9 billion dollars.

    And thats just to get on an even footing, ignoring existing infrastructure, ignoring existing skill sets.

    We are not talking about manufacturing solar panels for the entire world, but for the Australian market and any overseas markets who want to buy them.’

    Who said we have to compete with China or emulate their output?’
    ============================
    Just another strawman to bash Labor with. No vision and thick as.

  30. ”
    B. S. Fairmansays:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:01 pm
    All the talk about the eclipse in America has highlighted that Sydney is going to get a total eclipse in 2028. That will be great.
    Plus there is going to be a total eclipse in Victoria in 2038 on Boxing Day. I am not sure what they are going to do with the Test match!
    ”

    BSF
    Solar eclipses happen twice a year because Moon cannot help itself coming between Sun and Earth.
    However, the Solar eclipse is special because it happened over USA. 🙂

  32. ”All the talk about the eclipse in America has highlighted that Sydney is going to get a total eclipse in 2028. That will be great.”

    22 July 2028, just after 2:00 PM. The path of totality crosses the continent from the Kimberly to Sydney. The centre of totality passes very close to the CBD, over Randwick Racecourse in fact, so we get a great view.

    Or would if Sydney’s weather weren’t so uncertain and apparently getting more so. Better places to observe might be Kunumurra, WA, the Stuart Highway near the Devils Marbles or Dubbo, NSW.

  34. ‘Lordbain says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 8:02 pm

    How is anything I said RE solar panels a strawman Boer’
    ——————
    I thought you might just be pretending to be thick but there is no doubt about it all. The strawman is your 3 million workers, of course.

    You would think that a Greens might finally say something nice about Labor’s investment in renewables but no. Too nasty. Too thick. No vision.

  35. P1 wants to play to our strengths: coal exports to China to make solar panels to flog to Australia with all the margins going to China so that Chinese people can use ICE propulsion to come to Australia to play in greenwasher eco resorts.

    You know it makes sense.

  37. Jesus Boer; is australia attempting to make a competitive solar panel industry or not. And I think you need to see someone about your obsession over “eco resorts”

  38. Or would if Sydney’s weather weren’t so uncertain and apparently getting more so. Better places to observe might be Kunumurra, WA, the Stuart Highway near the Devils Marbles or Dubbo, NSW.

    Christmas I. and Cocos (Keeling) Is. are also in the path of totality; I’m not sure what their weather is like in July.

    You can search for eclipse information by location here:
    https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/

  42. Re making solar panels.

    ”Who said we have to compete with China or emulate their output?”

    We don’t need to match China. We don’t need 3 million workers or the corresponding investment ($9 billion according to Lordbain). We just need to serve the local market and hopefully manage to get some exports going.

  43. Aqualung:

    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 7:50 pm

    Other than death & taxes, nothing’s set in cement. I’m advocating for nath’s return, unaware of why he was sin-binned. I will add, however, that today’s exchanges were, to put them at their best in the adjectival sense, pedestrian. No offence to the participants thereof (?).

  44. I for one am happy to hear about Labor plans with TAFE to train locals fo fill skills shortages.

    Not only will it help to fill much needed skills shortages in the future but also undo some of the resentment over immigration, Thus helping people accept migrants to fill skill shortages in the meantime

    So good job Labor

  46. Are we developing a solar panel industry for energy independence/tech development, or are we doing it as genuine export?

    The former. If there is surplus production, the export dollars will be cream.

    Just within Australia, massive scale solar is required. Some are suggesting over a billion panels. I’d suggest it will be a significant fraction of this,* and if I had to put a figure on it, half a billion.

    Either way, it’s a shit tonne of panels, so the domestic market is of sufficient scale to support a large manufacturing base. Given they have an expect lifetime of 20 years, even maintaining this stock of panels requires a very large number to be produced each year.

    The Albanese government is also supporting development of supplies of the raw materials, including rare earths, required to establish the entire supply chain. E.g. there is a large, really very big, high-quality quartz deposit outside of Townsville that will be exploited to produce silicon.

    *Depending how many SMRs get built (ducks).

  47. RFKjr’s NY Campaign Director doesn’t just say the quiet part out loud here, she sounds damn happy about it. I’ll quote from the following Xitter clip:

    https://twitter.com/cwebbonline/status/1777021184737194221?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1777021184737194221%7Ctwgr%5E753025bf076812cbf3233c9c69046d386cd50cf2%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2024%2F4%2F8%2F2234095%2F-RFKjr-s-NY-Campaign-Director-admits-plan-to-throw-the-election-to-Trump-via-US-House-of-Reps

    Starting at 0:57, and for the non-Xeeters (emphasis added):

    If the Republicans… accepted the fact that New York, Maryland, Illinois, California, New Jersey, Connecticut — most of the Northeast is going to go blue, why wouldn’t we put our vote to Bobby and at least get rid of Biden, and get those 28 electoral votes in New York — the card’s a little wrong, it says 26 electoral votes — give those 28 electoral votes to Bobby rather than to Biden, thereby reducing Biden’s 270. And we all know how that works, right? 270 wins the election. If you don’t get to 270, if nobody gets to 270, then Congress picks the President. So who are they going to pick? Who are they going to pick, if it’s a Republican Congress? They’ll pick Trump. So we’re rid of Biden either way. Does everybody follow that?

  48. Thanks Dandy, I agree thats a reasonable and thought out approach regarding a viable and realistic domestic solar panel industry

  50. Tenth consecutive monthly heat record alarms and confounds climate scientists

    If the anomaly does not stabilise by August, ‘the world will be in uncharted territory’, says climate expert

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/global/2024/apr/09/tenth-consecutive-monthly-heat-record-alarms-confounds-climate-scientists?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17126527077337&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fglobal%2F2024%2Fapr%2F09%2Ftenth-consecutive-monthly-heat-record-alarms-confounds-climate-scientists

    “Another month, another global heat record that has left climate scientists scratching their heads and hoping this is an El Niño-related hangover rather than a symptom of worse-than-expected planetary health.

    Global surface temperatures in March were 0.1C higher than the previous record for the month, set in 2016, and 1.68C higher than the pre-industrial average, according to data released on Tuesday by the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

    This is the 10th consecutive monthly record in a warming phase that has shattered all previous records. Over the past 12 months, average global temperatures have been 1.58C above pre-industrial levels.”
    ……….
    ……

    “The core of the problem – fossil fuel emissions – is well known and largely uncontested in the scientific community. A survey of nearly 90,000 climate-related studies shows a 99.9% consensus that humans are altering the climate by burning gas, oil, coal and trees.”

Comments Page 36 of 38
1 … 35 36 37 38

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *