Queensland politics has something of a super Saturday on offer tomorrow with local government elections together with two state by-elections. The former encompasses elections for the lord mayoralty and the 26 wards that constitute Brisbane City Council, Australia’s largest, most powerful and biggest-budget municipality, and also the one whose elections are most sharply defined by conventional partisanship. For all these reasons, it is the only local government in which this site takes much of an interest. I am currently frantically at work getting my live results system in order for both the by-elections and the Brisbane City Council election, the latter of which in particular is a major undertaking comparable to a state election.
Two new items of opinion polling offer a pointer as to what might be expected, both providing very good news for the Liberal National Party:
• Newspoll finds the state LNP with a lead of 54-46, pointing to a 7% swing off the 2020 result, which is a fair bit worse for Labor than any of the polling that helped usher Annastacia Palaszczuk out the door. The primary votes are Labor 30% (39.6% at the 2020 election), LNP 42% (35.9%), Greens 13% (9.5%) and One Nation 8% (7.1%). David Crisafulli achieves an uncommon feat for an Opposition Leader in leading the incumbent as preferred premier, by 43-37. Premier Steven Miles records 38% approval and 49% disapproval, while Crisafulli is respectively on 47% and 33%. The poll was conducted last Thursday through to Wednesday from a sample of 1037.
• DemosAU has a voting intention poll for tomorrow’s Brisbane City Council election which suggests the LNP will match its 2020 landslide, with the incumbent Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner leading Labor challenger Tracey Price by 57.7-42.3 on two-candidate preferred (56.3-43.7 at the 2020 election) from primary votes of 46.7% for Schrinner (47.7% in 2020), 25.8% for Price (30.9% for Labor’s candidate in 2020) and 21.6% for Greens candidate Jonathan Sriranganathan (15.4% for the Greens candidate in 2020). Voting intention for the 26 council wards, all but four of which will have only LNP, Labor and Greens candidates (the four exceptions each have one independent) has the LNP on 43.7% (47.5% in 2020), Labor on 31.3% (33.8%) and the Greens on 25.0% (18.7%). The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1034.
Sarah Elks of The Australian reported last week the “grassroots doorknocking data collection method pioneered by now-federal Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather”, which is claimed to have given the party an accurate insight into their looming three-seat haul in Queensland ahead of the federal election, is pointing to a swag of new ward seats, all from the LNP. Paddington and Walter Taylor are “tipped as gains”, and the party is thought “close to taking Coorparoo, Central and Enoggera”, in addition to its existing seat of The Gabba. Labor is reportedly hopeful of adding only Calamvale and Northgate to its existing five seats out of 26, raising the possibility of the Greens overtaking it as the party of opposition.
Also tomorrow are state by-elections for two Labor-held seats in the west of metropolitan Brisbane: Inala, which is being vacated by Annastacia Palaszczuk, and Ipswich West, which Jim Madden is vacating for a run at Ipswich City Council. While Labor’s 28.2% margin in the former seems unassailable, Labor appears at least nervous that little of the 14.3% margin in Ipswich West will remain after tomorrow, with Steven Miles telling journalists this week that his party faces a “double-digit swing”.
Can we please keep this thread relevant to Queensland. The open thread for general discussion is here.
The perceived lack of action to curtail youth crime has obviously hurt Labor up there, and from this distance Steven Miles looks way out of his depth – surely Cameron Dick would have been a better choice? Miles comes across as a buffoon, promoted to the top job by union heavies.
Albo will hope that 6 months or so of a Cresufulli Government cutting services will prompt a backlash federally against the LNP in 2025
Only about 75% of those who were enrolled, voted in the last Brisbane City Council election, I would not expect any more interest his time.
With eight candidates on offer in the Inala by-election, and OPV for the council election, the informal count in the by-election may be fairly high.
Clever Dick he knew this election was a goner let Miles take the big hit.
Rental costs /shortages a big issue and it’s the states that may suffer the electoral backlash. Mind you the states do not complain about crazy immigration levels so get what they deserve.
55,000 came into Australia after departees are counted in the month of January .
Many Kiwis heading to Brissy,North Queensland due to fed labor letting them stay permanently.
Queensland remains a conservative wasteland. It is probably at least ten points to the right of the rest of the country.
If state Labor are expecting a double digit swing against them in Ipswich West, this is an indication of how bad things are for the Miles Government.
When future historians ask when the restoration of Australian democracy began, they will say “it began in Queensland, on March the 16th, 2024”.
State polling figures for the Greens tend to support the likelihood of a swing to the Greens in BCC. ALP is having its lunch eaten by the Greens in Brisbane while the LNP is snacking on its vote in the regions. they are faced with difficult choices over how they position themselves at a state level
》Queensland remains a conservative wasteland. It is probably at least ten points to the right of the rest of the country.
Although Brisbane has quite a few Green representatives
“Only about 75% of those who were enrolled, voted in the last Brisbane City Council election, I would not expect any more interest his time.”
That was a Covid election and there wasn’t much of a campaign because Labor weren’t really trying and the Greens were too small.
This time around the Greens have been campaigning like mad, and the LNP have dumped tonnes of money to counter them. Surely that is worth a few points in turnout.
@William Bowe, give me a shout if you need assistance getting the Brisbane Council election results page over the line. I have experience ripping through the Queensland ECQ XML results feeds & publishing them on web. Willing to volunteer a spare set of hands. Can provide contact details upon request.
Catprog @ #8 Friday, March 15th, 2024 – 8:24 am
Inner city Teal like Green voters. So socially progressive, economically conservative. These are quite wealthy seats.
Clever Dick he knew this election was a goner let Miles take the big hit.
@Pied piper
Cameron Dick definitely wanted the Premiership, but was from the Right, and didn’t have the numbers. A first cab off the rank as opposition leader isn’t as attractive as it sounds. Despite both Peter Beattie and Annastacia Palaszczuk winning the premiership from that position.
There are wealthy people IN those seats, but there are plenty of middle class people as well.
Do you really think someone like Jonathan Sriranganathan would appeal to same type of person that elected Allegra Spender?
Perhaps Palaszczuk should not have been shown the door. Anyway, stand by for a law & order election, which the Tories are masters at.
Perhaps Palaszczuk should not have been shown the door. Anyway, stand by for a law & order election, which the Tories are masters at.
@Mavis
Are they the masters at though? The Vlad laws and the selection of Tim Carmody when Jarrod Bleijie Attorney General. Cost the LNP more votes then retained at the 2015 Queensland state election. The LNP were banging on about Law and Order in 2017 and 2020 elections, which was supposed to deliver them seats in Townsville which did neither.
Bleijie returning as deputy for the LNP, really shows how much double standards there is in the media. If Labor did this with Jackie Trad or Mark Bailey you would never hear the end of it from the Courier Mail.
joeldipops @ #12 Friday, March 15th, 2024 – 9:32 am
Of course not, just like any seat these things are not made up of monolithic blocks of voters, there’s a plurality. Greens are polling just above 21%. Allegra Spender polled 35.8% first preferences last election and 54.2% on preferences. I’m pretty confident she made up a coalition of voters from different backgrounds to achieve that.
We lived in the West End for several years, and also Rosalie for several more. We were renters in both locations, but surrounded properties worth several million. At the time our wages were not great.
Any chance of the ALP losing either byelection?
FUBAR @ #16 Friday, March 15th, 2024 – 10:20 am
Possibly West Ipswich – local issues overlaid on state wide ones
Any chance of the ALP losing either byelection?
@Fubar
No, chance in Inala, but there is some chance in Ipswich West. Even if the LNP’s manages to narrowly win in Ipswich West. It’s unlikely they will be able retain it from the inevitable correction swing at the general election.
There is a bit of a controversy in the media from the LNP’s Inala candidate Trang Yen because she posted a photo of her voting in the Inala bye-election. She can’t vote because she lives in South Brisbane. The LNP confirmed it wasn’t her ballot.
Political Nightwatchman says:
Friday, March 15, 2024 at 11:48 am
“No, chance in Inala, but there is some chance in Ipswich West.”
What would be your odds at the LNP winning?
There are difficulties in polling for local councils that are similar to single electorate polls. Not quite as relevant for something as big as Brisbane, but still present.
Combination of ensuring respondents are actually in the area and also weighting, which can be problematic the smaller the population size.
I’d expect the Brisbane results to be fair bit different from this poll but I haven’t a clue in which respect(s)!
“No, chance in Inala, but there is some chance in Ipswich West.”
What would be your odds at the LNP winning?
@Green & Gold
I don’t have any info on the ground. But Steven Miles has conceded Labor is looking at a double digit swing which would make the 14.3% margin start looking tight. Labor have suggested their nervous, but the LNP has suggested privately a win is going to be a hard ask. A big surge in One nation vote will be expected and the Greens are not running a candidate. There is only four candidates which is surprising small number for bye-election where outside candidates a more inclined to put their hand up. The fact the council elections are running on the same day probably is why there a fewer candidates.
Political Nightwatchman says:
Friday, March 15, 2024 at 11:48 am
“It’s unlikely they will be able retain it from the inevitable correction swing at the general election.”
Was this partly referring to the volatility of the ON primary vote in this seat? I am thinking of the -13.4% primary swing against the previous ON candidate Gary Duffy…
It is looking extremely difficult for the ALP to withstand the tide in QLD. Unless Miles resigns his seat, or in fact loses it, he will remain the leader in Opposition. It will be interesting to see if the Greens can transform some of their Federal gains into State gains.
“It’s unlikely they will be able retain it from the inevitable correction swing at the general election.” Was this partly referring to the volatility of the ON primary vote in this seat? I am thinking of the -13.4% primary swing against the previous ON candidate Gary Duffy…
@Green & Gold
I’m just referring to the protest vote in a bye-election in general. It gives voters a chance to give the government a kick in the pants, but that vote comes back to them at the general election. Its happened countless times everywhere on both state and federal spheres.
The Labor Party in Queensland generally runs dead in local government elections. Which is a surprise given that Brisbane City Council is such a big deal (bigger economy than Tasmania, ACT and NT combined). Labor will happily take it, if it falls into their lap, but are not prepared to work for it.
Leading into 1991 election Sally-Anne Atkinson was the incumbent Liberal Lord Mayor. She was said (by the usual suspects) to be very popular and unassailable. Labor put up their usual non-entity, a catholic lay preacher with zero public profile, Jim Soorley.
To the astonishment of all (though none more than Sally-Anne) , Jim achieved an 18% swing, pulling off a very narrow win on the back of Green preferences. It was a difficult transition to the new administration as Sally-Anne resisted giving up power for several weeks, refusing to accept that she had lost.
Soorley was an enigma, an arrogant man of questionable character. However he could be charming and personable when required. He proved to be a visionary, reforming and effective Lord Mayor. He proved genuinely popular in the role and increased his margin in each of the three following elections until he retired in 2003.
Soorely gave his successor time to take on the advantages of incumbency before the 2004 election. His successor was Tim Quinn who had first been elected Councillor on the back of the Soorley wave in 1991. Quinn had served as a very competent and effective head of Development and Planning for twelve years and had served as deputy Lord Mayor for six. However, he had a very low profile and little public appeal.
After four consecutive terms with increasing margins, Labor appeared to think the party would inevitably continue in 2004 and staged a poor campaign with a poor candidate. They were hit by the Campbell Newman train. Quinn lost the mayoralty, although Labor retained 17 of the 26 ward seats. In 2008 the Liberals took full control of Council with Newman increasing his majority against another Labor unknown, Greg Rowell.
Labor has continued to run dead at all subsequent Council elections with unknown candidates and only token campaigns. Only the Greens have shown any willingness to take on the increasingly entrenched Liberals who have continued to cycle through insipid Lord Mayors like Quirk and Schrinner. Neither would be likely to make the slightest impact in any other jurisdiction.
This year’s Labor mayoral candidate, another unknown (Tracey Price), with another invisible Labor campaign.
Consequently, the Greens have the potential to overtake Labor this time to become the dominant opposition party on Brisbane City Council. Sad state of affairs for Labor supporters.
It is looking extremely difficult for the ALP to withstand the tide in QLD. Unless Miles resigns his seat, or in fact loses it, he will remain the leader in Opposition. It will be interesting to see if the Greens can transform some of their Federal gains into State gains.
@wranslide
If Steven Miles loses I can’t see the party continuing with him as leader. It probably will depend on the magnitude of the loss as well. I still think it will be either Shannon Fentiman or Cameron Dick that replaces him. That’s why taking over as Queensland Premier has an element of risk. Because if you can’t turn it around then you risk facing being a one and done election as leader. It’s a different scenario to Anna Bligh taking over from Peter Beattie where she had a 22 seat majority buffer going into the 2009 Queensland state election.
The Nationals found continuing with Rob Borbidge as leader after he loss the premiership in 1998 was pretty aimless and counter productive.
How much of what is going in in Queensland due to the hedged bets voters seem to make in politics.
If you have a Labor in power Federally and in then you are more likely to vote Coalition in a state election.
If you have Labor in power Federally and at the State level then that make the chance of the ALP doing well at the local level almost impossible?
There’s actually 2 different “swings” happening simultaneously in Queensland. There’s a sharp swing right in regional Queensland and a swing left to the Greens in affluent inner city seats. The ALP is being sandwiched in between. When you poll the whole of the state, the two tend to cancel each other out a bit. I think the reality is actually quite a bit worse for the ALP, because so many of their more vulnerable seats are in the big regional centres like Bundaberg, Rockhampton and Townsville. I think they are going to lose some traditionally very safe ALP seats like Rockhampton.
West Ipswich is going to give us a much clearer indication of what’s coming in October. I do think double digit swings are very likely in much of regional Queensland, with the RedBridge regional breakdown several months ago suggesting ALP primary votes outside the SE corner of only a little over 20%. I don’t think there is much prospect of the ALP turning that around in only a little over 6 months.
How did the LNP lose a 78 to 7 seat majority after only 1 term in office the last time they were in power in Queensland?
They lost 36 seats in 1 election, after just 1 term in office?
Where they really that bad?
@Simple Question
It’s been covered countless times before. There is no excuse for the LNP throwing a 78 seat mandate away in one term. Its the greatest choke in politics in Australian history. I remember political commentators at the time were suggesting a narrow LNP election victory. They were thinking surely there is no way the LNP could use up that huge majority in one term. If the LNP win the next election it won’t be anything close to that kind of mandate. I expect Labor will have a sizable amount of MP’s in parliament as opposition, with the overwhelming bulk of MP’s made up from Brisbane.
From one survivor to another: thanks very much for the offer. I have actually done all the code for handling the XML though, and my challenges lie in other areas. Even so, it would still be good to touch base with you, so please email me at pollbludger-at-bigpond-com.
Simple Questionsays:
Friday, March 15, 2024 at 1:50 pm
How did the LNP lose a 78 to 7 seat majority after only 1 term in office the last time they were in power in Queensland?
They lost 36 seats in 1 election, after just 1 term in office?
Where they really that bad?
============================================================
Yes they absolutely were that bad.
Since the days of Bjelke-Petersen the LNP (as they are now called) have been totally unelectable.
In 1995 the Goss Government was brought to its knees following a disastrous campaign featuring a huge protest vote against the destruction of Koala habitat across several seats.
Goss retained government with a 1 seat majority. However, this dissolved when it was subsequently ruled that the election of the Labor candidate in Mundingburra was invalid.
The Liberals won the subsequent by-election creating a hung parliament.
“Closet National” independent, Liz Cunningham threw her support behind Borbidge handing him government. Still featuring many of the same faces from the Bjelke-Petersen era the Borbidge government reeled from one scandal to the next and was defeated after only one term by Labor, Peter Beattie forming a minority government in 1998.
Peter Beatie was initially a very popular Premier and went on to win three further elections.
However, as his personal popularity wained over his last two terms Labor increasingly came to rely on the unelectability of the dysfunctional and incompetent opposition to retain their hold on power.
This has been the most important factor in Labor’s success over the ensuing years.
The anomoly being the Campbell Newman fiasco.
The arrogant and incompetent Bligh government had run roughshod over the wishes of the electorate confident in their belief that the LNP was unelectable. However, then popular Brisbane Lord Mayor, Campbell Newman, swept onto the scene, becoming nominal leader of the opposition despite not even being in parliament.
The despised Bligh Government was thrown out with a record breaking swing resulting in Labour holding only seven seats in the (then) 89 seat parliament.
Campbell Newman took power with a record majority and was convinced that the LNP would remain in government for a generation off the back of it.
He ruled with impunity breaking promises and imposing radical reforms including huge reductions in the public service. His government was arrogant and scandal ridden.
To their shock the LNP were thrown out with another record swing back to Labor after only one term and have remained in opposition since.
Labor have continued electoral success, mainly on the back of campaigns that proclaim “we are not Campbell Newman”. This strategy brought success but the effectiveness has wained over recent years and the electorate are increasingly asking the question “could the LNP really be worse than this lot” with many suggesting it might be worth finding out.
Basically… Yes.
Were they really that bad ? I concur with Asha and unfortunately they have not used the last nine years to renew themselves. Mr Crisifulli was candos man in far north Qld. The same faces from candoes time are all still there. If this poll is correct we are in for Cando part 2. At least the Courier will be happy and no matter how bad things get politics will disappear off the front page.
The LNP government under Newman was the most arrogant and disappointing government in my lifetime. Newman almost made Keating seem like a pussy cat.
MelbourneMammoth says:
“Queensland remains a conservative wasteland. It is probably at least ten points to the right of the rest of the country.”
You persist in repeatedly posting this furphy, against the evidence.
Queensland has elected Labor governments at 11 of the 12 elections since the end of the Joh era.
The Wombat: “There’s a sharp swing right in regional Queensland and a swing left to the Greens in affluent inner city seats.”
Not just in affluent inner city seats. Also in middle-ring, middle-class seats such as the federal seat of Ryan.
Catprog: “Although Brisbane has quite a few Green representatives”
Indeed. 10% of Queensland’s MHRs are Greens.
In the rest of the country, 0.8% of the MHRs are Greens.
Which makes Queensland “a conservative wasteland”, according to the prehistoric pachyderm. Go figure …
“Perhaps Palaszczuk should not have been shown the door. ”
@Mavis
Labor Mp’s reported in the Courier Mail that ‘time for a change’ factor was hurting Labor. And the view is it would have accelerated even further if Labor had stuck with Annastacia Palaszczuk. I tend to agree with that view.
Going for a fourth term when there was never really a large majority buffer to begin with is not easy.
“Also tomorrow are state by-elections for two Labor-held seats in the *east* of metropolitan Brisbane …”
Er, that’d be *west*, William.
Inala in Brisbane’s south-west; and Ipswich West way out west of not only Brisbane, but also (as it says on the tin) Ipswich.
John Mickel (former Speaker) on Ipswich West:
“[One Nation] are giving their preferences this time to the Liberal National Party, so they will play a significant role for the conservative vote.”
“For Labor this time, they’re not getting preferences from anyone — the Greens aren’t standing …”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-15/queensland-by-election-inala-ipswich-west-saturday-vote/103585818
Thanks — fixed.
It’s worth noting that Inala has bred not just one, but two, giant-killing Labor premiers.
Annastacia Palaszczuk famously despatched Campbell Newman (CanDo DidGo).
And the first words of Wayne Goss’s victory speech in 1989 were: ‘This is the end of the Bjelke-Petersen era in Queensland!’
Indeed it was. Labor governments for 30 of the subsequent 35 years. Don’t you worry about that!
Queensland has basically had three political epochs – Labor from 1915 to 1957, the conservatives from 1957 to 1989, Labor from 1989 until now. After 35 years, it seems that 2024 could be the end of this Labor epoch. A longish term of conservative government might be just about to happen.
Blackburnpseph: the very long Joh Petersen era was very much aided by the Gerry Mander ( not a relation of Tim Mander) the LNP could change to an OPV model which would aid them in Brisbane but could also backfire as Beattie won several enormous majorities under this system. At the moment the LNP along with a supportive media has been highlighting grievance with crime etc. this is not really a good platform for longevity. If they win and cannot get on top of crime which is a very real possibility, the voting public will quickly turn on them even with the support of LNP aligned media and return to normal reception , the ALP .
We have just voted at the Mansfield booth in the Chandler ward (a safe LNP ward) in Brisbane. Much quieter than usual, a low volume but steady stream of voters – no long wait there, as is usually the case at state and federal elections. Only Labor and LNP people handing out how to vote cards, no Greens, and no one for the other ward candidates. Presumably the Greens are concentrating their efforts in those wards in which they think that they have a realistic chance of winning, and are not bothering with the mayoral contest or the other wards.
I was a bit astonished by the DemosAU polling, with the Greens north of 20% across all of greater Brisbane, stomping both major parties among all voters under 35, winning all renters more narrowly, and within striking distance of knocking Labor into third. Srirangathan is a better than usual candidate who probably has more cut-through with non-usual-suspect Greens voters, but it’d be a hell of an outcome if it pans out in the actual results and would give both major parties a reason to feel a bit nervous in the long run. That said, I’ll still believe it when I see it when it comes to the actual results.
I’ve found Miles a bit surprising as Premier: I’ve generally liked what he’s done as Premier, particularly where he’s been different to Palaszczuk, but not necessarily felt those things were a politically smart approach to pull in Queensland when you’re already up against it.
The slide reinforces my earlier views that Fentiman or even Dick would have been better candidates – I just don’t think he has what it takes to win people over in the tough situation he got handed. I suspect views of him among the general public as being a bit of a smug wanker were probably too dug-in, even though I’ve liked what he’s done to try to make a go of it.
I wouldn’t count on an LNP victory this time meaning anything long-term – the LNP in Queensland are uniquely good among Coalition parties at quickly alienating people when they get into government, and if Queensland Labor don’t self-destruct, I can see them bouncing back after one term just as in 1998 and 2015. The real danger for Queensland Labor is that they self-destruct in opposition in the manner of Tasmanian Labor now, but if they’re smart enough to give the leadership to Fentiman and back her she’s more than capable of doing another Palaczszuk and bringing them back.
“…Mansfield booth in the Chandler ward..
Only Labor and LNP people handing out how to vote cards, no Greens”
Contrast that with the Norman Park booth in Morningside where there was 1 LNP, 2 maybe 3 ALP volunteers and I think I counted 7 or 8 Greens! And this is a ward that they weren’t really pushing for.