YouGov: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)

Labor follows its Dunkley by-election win with better ratings for Anthony Albanese in one poll and a sharp improvement on voting intention in another.

The three-weekly federal poll from YouGov records little change on voting intention, with Labor steady at 32%, the Coalition up a point to 37%, the Greens up a point to 15% and One Nation down two to 6%, and Labor’s two-party lead steady at 52-48. However, Anthony Albanese personal ratings are improved, up four on approval to 44% and down three on disapproval to 50%, and his lead as preferred prime minister out from 45-38 to 48-34. Peter Dutton is at 39% approval and 49% disapproval, down two points on last time in net terms. The poll also records an 86-14 split in favour of the principle behind the recently passed “right to disconnect” laws. It was conducted February 24 to March 5 from a sample of 1539.

The rather more volatile weekly poll from Roy Morgan recorded a spike this week in favour of Labor, who lead 53.5-46.5 on two-party preferred after a dead heat last week, from primary votes of Labor 34% (up two-and-a-half), Coalition 36.5% (down one-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (up one-and-a-half) and One Nation 3.5% (down one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1679.

The other big item of federal electoral news for the week was Monday’s Liberal preselection for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook, where a by-election will be held on a date to be determined. The winner was Simon Kennedy, former McKinsey consultant and unsuccessful candidate for Bennelong in 2022, who won in the first round with 158 votes to Carmelo Pesce’s 90, Gwen Cherne’s 35 and Benjamin Britton’s 13.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

878 thoughts on “YouGov: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. #SmokingGun: A new #FOI release shows that when Minister Plibersek signed off on introducing the Sea Dumping Amendment Bill into Parliament, she knew its sole purpose was to facilitate future gas developments. She also knew exactly who she was working for: Santos 1/3 #auspol pic.twitter.com/aWIhgBwI15— Rex Patrick (@MrRexPatrick) March 7, 2024

    Note that the entire cross bench spoke against and voted against this outrageous piece of legislation that is entirely at odds with our climate commitments. https://t.co/0NRGsLk36n— Zoe Daniel MP (she/her) (@zdaniel) March 8, 2024

    Yes it was a dirty deal with the Libs.

    Both Labor and the L/NP are heavily invested in, are taking direction from and receiving political donations from Santos and the rest of the fossil fuel industry.

  2. Extreme heat warnings now flooding into peoples Vic emergency apps.

    Take care this weekend my fellow Vic’s and look after your pets.

  3. Theresa May’s constituency is Maidenhead, which is about as solid Conservative as they get. Although it is rather infamous for having Lord Buckethead and Elmo run for it at the 2017 election. I wonder if they’ll be in the running to replace her?

    But seriously, it’s probably one of the few seats likely to be retained by the Tories at the next election, unless serious tactical voting gets the Liberal Democrat candidate over the line.

  4. Entropy @ #36 Friday, March 8th, 2024 – 4:53 pm

    Pied pipersays:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 4:50 pm
    Gregg Rudd supports racism.
    ============================================

    Clearly self awareness is not your strong suit.

    Nor is an understanding of the meaning of racism:

    racism
    /ˈreɪsɪz(ə)m/
    noun
    prejudice, discrimination, or antagonism by an individual, community, or institution against a person or people on the basis of their membership of a particular racial or ethnic group, typically one that is a minority or marginalized.

    Whites ‘in a minority’?
    Whites ‘marginalised’?

    I don’t think so.

  5. Extreme Heat Warnings for SA.
    No rain for 2 months. Womad and the Fringe on and fruitbats dying and dropping out of trees.
    26/40
    26/39
    26/38
    23/34
    21/33

  6. Is one problem with defining ALL racism as white-on-black racism (by definition) is that it permanently and systematically disempowers blacks?

    What is the case, for example, when entry-level whites work to black managers in hierarchical organizations, in black private corporations, or as entry level employees in communities run by blacks?

  7. Also in symbolic news, the Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson personally attended Joe Biden’s State of the Union speech today, the same day Sweden officially joined NATO. He was addressed and welcomed.

    The Swedish flag will be raised at NATO headquarters in Brussels on the 11th of March.

  8. Boerwar says:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 6:05 pm

    What is the case, for example, when entry-level whites work to black managers in hierarchical organizations, in black private corporations, or as entry level employees in communities run by blacks?

    ———————————————————————

    And where are these black racist organisations who oppress entry level white people? Do they exist only in your imagination to suit your argument, or did you read about them in a bizarro world comic book? Or are you being sarcastic?

  9. Who would have thought The London Plod were such snowflakes..

    Kerr was charged with using insulting, threatening or abusive words that caused alarm or distress to a police officer during an incident in Twickenham, south-west London, on January 30 last year.

  10. Rainman says:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 6:21 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 6:05 pm

    What is the case, for example, when entry-level whites work to black managers in hierarchical organizations, in black private corporations, or as entry level employees in communities run by blacks?

    ———————————————————————

    And where are these black racist organisations who oppress entry level white people? Do they exist only in your imagination to suit your argument, or did you read about them in a bizarro world comic book? Or are you being sarcastic?’
    —————————————–
    =============================
    I rest my case.

  11. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 5:45 pm

    My sympathies Kirsdarke

    Thank you. For people who were in high school in the early 00’s, it was something of a ritual to talk about the latest episode of Dragon Ball Z aired on Cheez TV that morning.

    That Toriyama was the creator of all that and more, it feels bad to lose such a cultural giant of a person like him in the world.

  12. Kirsdarke:

    News was dropped that the creator of Dragon Ball Akira Toriyama has died aged 68.

    Oh, man, for real? 🙁 🙁

  13. Summers were hot in Adelaide when I was a number of years younger

    In the days before reverse cycle air conditioners being a feature in homes and when you went to Henley Beach and slept on the waters edge seeking any puff of breeze for relief

    And sleeping on the laundry floor, which was cement

    And it is still hot during summer

    Noting that the first things I did when purchasing a home were to go to Kelvinator on Anzac Highway and buy a reverse cycle air conditioner for installation and have one of my Father’s friends put insulation in the ceiling (attended by jockeys as a weight management part time job!!)

    Mind you, weather patterns have altered since then, when summers were just hot, still and dry

    And, from teenage years, we used to play cricket!!

    It is noted that various Stock Markets, including the broader S&P 500 along with the ASX and the ASX 200 and elsewhere are at record highs

    And the 10 Year AUD Bond Yield has dipped below 4%

    The headlines were that Central Bank efforts to address inflation would likely see recession and increases in unemployment across economies

    Well, near 3 years into the tightening cycle, guess what?

    The Markets are forward looking

    The Central Banks, globally replicating Volker from past times, have delivered the proverbial blinder

    Supported by government discipline

    Plus wages are rising at above inflation for the first time in some 10 years

    And there are plenty of jobs available to boot

  14. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 6:01 pm
    Entropy @ #36 Friday, March 8th, 2024 – 4:53 pm

    Pied pipersays:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 4:50 pm
    Gregg Rudd supports racism.
    ============================================

    Clearly self awareness is not your strong suit.

    Nor is an understanding of the meaning of racism:

    racism
    /ˈreɪsɪz(ə)m/
    noun
    prejudice, discrimination, or antagonism by an individual, community, or institution against a person or people on the basis of their membership of a particular racial or ethnic group, typically one that is a minority or marginalized.

    Whites ‘in a minority’?
    Whites ‘marginalised’?

    I don’t think so.
    —————–
    What’s the source for that definition because the Australian Human Rights Commission says the Racial Discrimination Act 1975 promotes equality before the law for all people regardless of race, colour or national or ethnic origin. It is unlawful to discrimination against people on the basis of race, colour, descent or national or ethnic origin.

    https://humanrights.gov.au/our-work/legal/legislation#:~:text=The%20Racial%20Discrimination%20Act%201975,or%20national%20or%20ethnic%20origin.

  15. Boerwar says:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 6:22 pm

    Ok. Now I get it. You’re slagging off Indigenous organisations.

    I rest my case.

  16. Dragon Ball Z was one of those weird phenomenons that probably seems close to incomprehensible to those who weren’t just the right age to be swept up in it during its heyday.

    Like Kirsdarke, I spent my late tweens and early teens religiously watching Cheez TV each morning, and DBZ always seemed to stand out from the rest of its programming. It, er, doesn’t quite hit the same way when you watched it an adult, but to 13-year-old me it really it did feel like proper gritty “adult” TV amongst a bunch of kids cartoons.

  17. @Asha

    Yeah true, it doesn’t stand up well now that we’ve grown up (and of course English dubbing for anime could be atrocious at times in those days). But then there was the second helping of Team Fourstar’s DBZ Abridged so many years later that brought back all that childish thrill and joy in a palatable form for the 2010’s.

    I know what I’m going to marathon for the long weekend here.

  18. Mexicanbeemer @ #72 Friday, March 8th, 2024 – 6:36 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 6:01 pm
    Entropy @ #36 Friday, March 8th, 2024 – 4:53 pm

    Pied pipersays:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 4:50 pm
    Gregg Rudd supports racism.
    ============================================

    Clearly self awareness is not your strong suit.

    Nor is an understanding of the meaning of racism:

    racism
    /ˈreɪsɪz(ə)m/
    noun
    prejudice, discrimination, or antagonism by an individual, community, or institution against a person or people on the basis of their membership of a particular racial or ethnic group, typically one that is a minority or marginalized.

    Whites ‘in a minority’?
    Whites ‘marginalised’?

    I don’t think so.
    —————–
    What’s the source for that definition because the Australian Human Rights Commission says the Racial Discrimination Act 1975 promotes equality before the law for all people regardless of race, colour or national or ethnic origin. It is unlawful to discrimination against people on the basis of race, colour, descent or national or ethnic origin.

    From Oxford Languages.

    There’s more than one definition.

  19. ‘Rainman says:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 6:36 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 6:22 pm

    Ok. Now I get it. You’re slagging off Indigenous organisations.

    I rest my case.’
    ———————
    All Indigenous organizations are paragons of excellent management? Really?

  20. Discrimination is different from vilification. Either may be racially based.

    Racism incorporates both.

    Also, the use of the word ‘typically’ necessarily implies ‘but not always’.

  21. Rainman
    Sounds like some law white folks wrote. Fuck their feelings.
    —————
    That’s what the reactionaries say when someone makes a complaint but the racial discrimination act is written to treat everyone equally.

    9 Racial discrimination to be unlawful

    (1) It is unlawful for a person to do any act involving a distinction, exclusion, restriction or preference based on race, colour, descent or national or ethnic origin which has the purpose or effect of nullifying or impairing the recognition, enjoyment or exercise, on an equal footing, of any human right or fundamental freedom in the political, economic, social, cultural or any other field of public life.

    (1A) Where:

    (a) a person requires another person to comply with a term, condition or requirement which is not reasonable having regard to the circumstances of the case; and

    (b) the other person does not or cannot comply with the term, condition or requirement; and

    (c) the requirement to comply has the purpose or effect of nullifying or impairing the recognition, enjoyment or exercise, on an equal footing, by persons of the same race, colour, descent or national or ethnic origin as the other person, of any human right or fundamental freedom in the political, economic, social, cultural or any other field of public life;

    the act of requiring such compliance is to be treated, for the purposes of this Part, as an act involving a distinction based on, or an act done by reason of, the other person’s race, colour, descent or national or ethnic origin.

    (2) A reference in this section to a human right or fundamental freedom in the political, economic, social, cultural or any other field of public life includes any right of a kind referred to in Article 5 of the Convention.

    (3) This section does not apply in respect of the employment, or an application for the employment, of a person on a ship or aircraft (not being an Australian ship or aircraft) if that person was engaged, or applied, for that employment outside Australia.

    (4) The succeeding provisions of this Part do not limit the generality of this section.

    https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2004A00274/latest/text

  22. C@t,
    That photo of Obama.
    Can’t remember specifics but there was a TV segment of Julia G meeting Obama.
    What a rapport!
    And I went to a JG reflections talk.
    I think she almost melted at the thought of Obama

  23. It would be interesting to know how many other similar cases the UK police have prosecuted in, say, the past five years regarding racially based abuse directed at their officers, and the specifics of that abuse.

  24. Can’t say I have much sympathy for Catalano and his Australian Community Media newspaper company.

    Like the vast majority of Canberrans, I don’t subscribe to the Canberra Times. I just scan the headlines for something interesting or relevant. The paper has a constant bias against Labor and the Greens in the ACT government, which is sort of self defeating in a heavily left of centre electorate. The ACT Liberal opposition is given unrestricted publicity for their every whinge about the government.

    If their other papers are like the Canberra Times, I don’t doubt that the company has problems. However, blaming Facebook is not the answer. Improving their own product might convince people to pay for a subscription.

    Meta’s refusal to pay for Australian news content could have a dire impact on Australia’s largest regional publisher, Australian Community Media, says its executive chair, Antony Catalano.

    The media boss said on Thursday “absolutely” there would be job losses across the company, which houses The Canberra Times and The Newcastle Herald among other mastheads, if no alternative funding was found – an outcome that should not come as a surprise.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/job-losses-and-potentially-dire-impact-on-regional-media-from-meta-s-news-exit-20240307-p5faik.html

  25. Irene

    Really?

    Whilst politicians do provide copy to the Murdoch media, the periods of Labor domination of politics in both SA and Victoria, where Murdoch has relentlessly attacked Labor over near a generation, point to the “influence” of Murdoch

    The LNP rely on Murdoch to attack on their behalf

    Labor provides copy because Murdoch is a media outlet

    And voters vote

    The reputation (and circulation where subscriptions are given away – note the advertising) of Murdoch is what it is

    And Albanese is a most competent pm, with good experience

    He leads a government where he places confidence in his Ministry

    Look at Question Time

    The garbage some promote is precisely that – Garbage, with a capital G

    And it is noted that given the period of the election cycle Biden is moving into election mode from the Statesman role required as President

  26. What are you allowed to call them these days?
    Fuzz, filth, fascists? Pigs, plods, peelers? Rozzers, road pirates, racists?

    Other things include the flange and the fuzzy muff.

  27. What are you allowed to call them these days?
    Fuzz, filth, fascists? Pigs, plods, peelers? Rozzers, road pirates, racists?
    ____________
    In Melbourne they are usually called the Jacks.

  28. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 6:47 pm

    —————————————————————————-

    Are you just quoting the law or are you defending its misuse and abuse by the police to intimidate people of colour?

  29. Rainmansays:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 7:01 pm
    Mexicanbeemer says:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 6:47 pm

    —————————————————————————-

    Are you just quoting the law or are you defending its misuse and abuse by the police to intimidate people of colour?
    ——————
    That was the Australian racial discrimination act which has no role in Sam Kerr’s case but might be similar to the English law.

  30. Rewisays:
    Friday, March 8, 2024 at 6:53 pm
    It would be interesting to know how many other similar cases the UK police have prosecuted in, say, the past five years regarding racially based abuse directed at their officers, and the specifics of that abuse.
    =====================================================

    I assume they have ethnically diverse range of officers?. Any prosecutions from the abuse of them? or is it only a thing for their white officers only?.

  31. Here we go again @ #86 Friday, March 8th, 2024 – 5:54 pm

    Irene

    Really?

    Whilst politicians do provide copy to the Murdoch media, the periods of Labor domination of politics in both SA and Victoria, where Murdoch has relentlessly attacked Labor over near a generation, point to the “influence” of Murdoch

    The LNP rely on Murdoch to attack on their behalf

    Labor provides copy because Murdoch is a media outlet

    And voters vote

    The reputation (and circulation where subscriptions are given away – note the advertising) of Murdoch is what it is

    And Albanese is a most competent pm, with good experience

    He leads a government where he places confidence in his Ministry

    Look at Question Time

    The garbage some promote is precisely that – Garbage, with a capital G

    And it is noted that given the period of the election cycle Biden is moving into election mode from the Statesman role required as President

    Same applies in Qld where despite the constant attacks from the Murdoch media, Labor keeps getting elected as the state government again and again, with only a couple of brief periods of LNP rule since the demise of the long term LNP government in 1989.

  32. “The idea of white people getting all sensitive because the victims of their oppression use ‘white’ as an insult is pathetic. They don’t think you’re inferior, **they just think you’re the privileged oppressors and they don’t like you. Suck it up.**”

    ————————————–

    In other words: “I should be able to vilify people on the basis of their race, because of my own race.”

    There are some unhinged people on this forum, sadly listened to and called ‘progressive’ when they are violent and evil reactionaries who have no place in public discourse.

  33. Asha and Kirsdarke

    Older baby boomers like myself may remember “The Samurai” which was tremendously popular with teenagers in the 1960s. Plenty of action, ham acting performances and atrocious dubbing in English but a must see as it was so different to the cowboy westerns from Hollywood.

    The Samurai is a Japanese historical fiction television series made by Senkosha Productions during the early 1960s. Its original Japanese title was Onmitsu Kenshi (隠密剣士, “Spy Swordsman”). The series premiered in 1962 on TBS and ran continuously until 1965 for ten self-contained story arcs (seasons), usually of 13 episodes each. Also created were two black-and-white feature films by Toei Company, made in 1964 by the same crew which created the TV series, and a stage show.
    The Samurai proved to be highly successful despite its initially very limited budget. It was the first Japanese TV program ever screened in Australia, where it premiered in 1964 and built up a remarkably large fan-base among the local young audience at the time, rapidly becoming a cult favourite. Despite its massive popularity in Australia as well as success in Japan, New Zealand and the Philippines, the series was not widely screened elsewhere and its fame remains largely restricted to those countries.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Samurai_(TV_series)

  34. I’m surprised all the absolut freeze peach warriors fuck your feelings not an argument anti-snowflakes are having a giant fucking sook about the most milquetoast “racism” you can get in England, a poor British cop being descriptively called a white bastard.

    Boo fucking hoo.

    Anything to distract from Peter “walk out on the stolen generation” Dutton and his Nuclear brain fart.

  35. @Asha

    Yeah, I feel the same.

    Honestly I wish the best for the Team Fourstar crew in their future endeavors. Personally I feel rather outraged that I hear that they’re generally snubbed for serious voice acting careers in the industry over there.

    They have so much talent, and they put all of that up for free. They deserve so much more than that.

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