Monday miscellany: RedBridge poll, Dunkley and teal seat polls, preselection latest (open thread)

More evidence of strong support for the stage three tax cut changes, but with Labor failing to make ground and facing a close result in Dunkley.

RedBridge Group has conducted its first federal poll for the year, and the movement it records since its last poll in early December is in favour of the Coalition, who are up three points on the primary vote to 38%. Labor and the Greens are steady at 33% and 13% with others down three to 16%, and Labor records a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, in from 52.8-47.2. A question on negative gearing finds an even split of 39% each for and against the status quo, with the latter composed of 16% who favour removing it from new rental properties in future and 23% for removing it altogether. Further detail is forthcoming, including on field work dates and sample size.

Progressive think tank the Australia Institute has published a number of federal seat-level automated phone polls conducted by uComms, most notably for Dunkley, whose by-election is now less than three weeks away. The result is a 52-48 lead to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 56.3-43.7 split in favour of Labor in 2022. After distributing a forced response follow-up question for the unusually large 17% undecided component, the primary votes are Labor 40.1% (40.2% at the election), Liberal 39.3% (32.5%), Greens 8.2% (10.3%) and others 12.4% (16.9%). A question on the tax cut changes finds 66.3% in favour and 28.1% opposed, although the question offered a bit too much explanatory detail for my tastes. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 626.

The other polls are from the teal independent seats of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth, conducted last Monday from samples of 602 to 647. They show the incumbents leading in each case despite losing primary vote share to Labor, together with strong support for the tax cut changes. In Kooyong, distributing results from a forced response follow-up for the 9.7% undecided produces primary vote shares of 33.5% for Monique Ryan (the only candidate mentioned by name, down from 40.3% in 2022), 39.5% for the Liberals (42.7%), 15.7% for Labor (6.9%) and 7.5% for the Greens (6.3%). Ryan is credited with a 56-44 lead on two-candidate preferred, but preference flows from 2022 would make it more like 53.5-46.5.

In Mackellar, distribution of the 10.8% initially undecided gets incumbent Sophie Scamps to 32.2% of the primary vote (38.1%), with 39.3% for Liberal (41.4%), 14.8% for Labor (8.2%) and 6.6% for the Greens (6.1%). This comes out at 54-46 after preferences (52.5-47.5 in 2022), but I make is 52.7-47.3 using the flows from 2022. In Wentworth, Allegra Spender gets the best result out of the three, with distribution of 6.3% undecided putting her primary vote at 35.1% (35.8% in 2022), with Liberal on 39.0% (40.5%), Labor on 15.3% (10.9%) and Greens on 10.4% (8.3%). The reported two-candidate preferred is 57-43, but the preference flow in this case is weaker than it was when she won by 54.2-45.8 in 2022, the result being 59.2-40.8 based on preference flows at the election.

Federal preselection news:

• Andrew Hough of The Advertiser reports South Australia’s Liberals will determine the order of their Senate ticket “within weeks”, with the moderate Anne Ruston tussling with the not-moderate Alex Antic for top place. The third incumbent, David Fawcett, a Senator since 2011 and previously member for Wakefield from 2004 to 2007, will be left to vie for the dubious third position against political staffer and factional conservative Leah Blyth.

• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports nominations have closed for the Liberal preselection in Gilmore, and that Andrew Constance has again put his name forward, after narrowly failing to win the seat in 2022 and twice being overlooked for Senate vacancies last year. He faces competition from Paul Ell, a moderate-aligned lawyer and Shoalhaven deputy mayor who had long been mentioned as a potential candidate for the seat, having been persuaded to leave the path clear for Constance in 2022.

• Hannah Cross of The West Australian reports Sean Ayres, a 26-year-old lawyer and staffer to former member Ben Morton, has emerged as a fourth Liberal preselection contender in the normally conservative Perth seat of Tangney, joining SAS veteran Mark Wales, Canning mayor and former police officer Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,288 comments on “Monday miscellany: RedBridge poll, Dunkley and teal seat polls, preselection latest (open thread)”

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  1. Oliver Suttonsays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 8:41 pm
    FUBAR: “They are getting paid huge amounts of money to them individually …”

    Hey, $200,000 per year is ‘not a lot’.

    I know that’s true, because I heard the Nationals’ leader say it.
    =======================================================

    Once you factor in the cost of flights to Cayman Island. It is hardly worth the time and effort of depositing in the bank.

    Especially when you can sell the rights to non-existent flood plain water for $80 million. A salary of $200k is nothing in comparison.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/31/not-a-drop-of-water-after-government-spends-80m-on-rights-from-agribusiness

  2. leftieBrawler says:
    “Unconfirmed rumours of Trent Zimmerman hanging out of late with a few Labor heavies.”

    You don’t need a Zimmerman to know which way the wind blows.

  3. nadia88,
    Don’t fool yourself into thinking that Jacqui Lambie is another Nick Xenophon. She’s not into superficial stunts and is a much more serious contender.

  5. BW: “Commissioner of Police Blamey’s police badge was found in a brothel. He was welcome at pubs after the 6 o’clock swill closing time because it meant that illegal drinking could continue with his personal protection. And so on and so forth. Blamey was finally forced to resign when he ran interference for a copper called Brophy who had been shot up while carting a couple of prostitutes about.
    Blamey then went on to command Australia’s army during WW2.”

    This same Blamey was said to have been an important mentor for one-time Labor Deputy PM Dr Jim Cairns, who was a detective in the Victorian Police in his early days.

    The alleged relationship between Cairns and Blamey was satirised by Bob Ellis (who was never fond of the Labor left faction) in his screenplay for the extremely bizarre 1982 movie Goodbye Paradise, in which a gormless Jim Cairns-type figure turned out at the end of the movie to have been plotting a military coup with a military officer named Quiney.

  6. leftieBrawlersays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 8:44 pm
    Unconfirmed rumours of Trent Zimmerman hanging out of late with a few Labor heavies.

    If North Sydney survives the chop………

    Hmm fresh off the grape vine press. Anyone else heard similar over the last 36 or so hours??
    ====================================================

    There has been a number of cross party romances. What is the sexual orientation of so called Labor Heavies and are any of them Trent’s type?.

  8. c@t: “Anyone for some Rum, Sodomy and the Lash? ”

    As per the depiction of British naval traditions often attributed to Winston Churchill. But I believe that, when asked about it, he replied “I never said that, but I really wish I had.”

  10. he’d be a circuit breaker for Labor if he made the switch. I’ve met Trent on numerous occasions and and all I can say is he’s a first class human being in every asepct

  12. he’d be a circuit breaker for Labor if he made the switch. I’ve met Trent on numerous occasions and and all I can say is he’s a first class human being in every aspect

  13. Per the Essential Poll released early this morning at around 4.30am. There has been “lots of fluff” during the day about the economy/ direction of the country blah blah, but somehow the primaries (which are the only numbers which count I’m afraid), were sidelined.

    Anyway, here they are…

    * ALP 31% (down 1)
    * LNP 34% (no change)
    * GRN 14% (up 1)
    * ONP/UAP 7 + 1 = 8% (down 1)
    * Others 13% (up 1)

    Poll Period: 7-11 Feb. 2024
    Sample: 1148

  14. frednk at 8.42 pm

    “FUBAR, someone needs to go through the Liberal’s daily taking points and ask, is this bullshit, and if it is cross it out. If there s nothing on the page, stay silent”

    Even if the person was Barnaby Joyce, the outflow would be diluted somewhat.

    Of course, Jeff Kennett would ignore the advice. But even his effort at Lib propaganda is fairly tame:

    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/jeff-kennett-why-dunkley-is-a-battleground-for-middle-australia/news-story/a0fe3a5f3029f8fc4c4e342066843003

  15. C@t: “Don’t fool yourself into thinking that Jacqui Lambie is another Nick Xenophon.”

    Didn’t she say that she once went on a date with Nick X? To Maccas! Didn’t go well, apparently. I wonder why.

  17. I missed it but does FUBAR know that it was the coal-fired power station, Loy Yang A, that caused the blackout in Victoria today? 😀

    I know 2 transmission lines went over as well but they weren’t the only reason.

  18. leftieBrawler: “he’d be a circuit breaker for Labor if he made the switch. I’ve met Trent on numerous occasions and and all I can say is he’s a first class human being in every aspect”

    The last high profile defector from another party that I can remember Labor running with was Cheryl Kernot. That didn’t end well.

    If Labor were to preselect Zimmerman in North Sydney (assuming the seat survives the redistribution, which seems a bit unlikely), the local branches would be monumentally pissed off and would only half-heartedly campaign for him at best.

    So it seems like a silly idea to me.

  19. @nadia88

    Outside of state wide polling it’s hard to read the wind. The best I can do is read BTL comments from the Mercury.

    There’s a general distaste for the major parties. Many negative comments about the last Labor Green government, most stating if you vote Labor you get Green.

    The south of the state should have more Labor seats than it does, a testament to disunity means death. The North of the state sees the majority of Liberal premiers. But there is also a strong anti party streak up there which has been inflamed in the last few months due to the ex-Libs.

    I thinks there’s a poll due in a few weeks, I ask Kevin Bonham on his blog and he said there was one in the field. Take the poll at face value is my view.

    I think people miss the last Lib premier and think Rockcliff is generally pretty weak. So there’s no groundswell of support for him.

    There is very little cross over between federal and state politics. This will be a very local election.

    Everyone is betting on a messy hung parliament that splits 4 ways. Probably be back at the polls in 12 months.

  21. Entropy is definitely not an AI deployment, i’m thoroughly certain of now.

    Entropy, if you want to ride the wave that is the razor’s edge of William’s levels of tolerance you are doing it wrong my dear boy!

  23. William Bowesays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 8:54 pm
    Stupid comment, Entropy
    ========================================

    Happy for you to delete it. It was only a quib at Leftie. Over what i thought was a very unlikely scenario of Trent defecting to Labor.

  28. leftieBrawlersays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 8:54 pm
    he’d be a circuit breaker for Labor if he made the switch. I’ve met Trent on numerous occasions and and all I can say is he’s a first class human being in every asepct
    ================================================

    I never said he wasn’t though. I also thought Gareth Evans and Cheryl Kernot were also.

  31. FUBAR @ Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:03 pm:

    “Oliver Sutton says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 8:44 pm

    You can Google it yourself, but I’m sure you have.”
    =============

    It was some good old post-Cronulla Riot anti-Muslim/Lebanese fearmongering, by all reports.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/03/michael-towke-repeats-claims-after-pm-denies-raising-his-lebanese-heritage-in-2007-preselection-fight

    No wonder you wanted us to ‘Google it’ and not say so yourself.

  33. FUBAR,
    Makes no difference. It was Loy Yang A that caused the blackout. Suck it up, buttercup. 🙂

    And that information is from AEMO.

  34. Re Nadia88 @8:54.

    So we have:
    Labor + Green: 45 (no change)
    Coalition: 34 (no change)
    Everyone else: 21 (no change)

    Looks like status quo.

    Margin of error ~ 3%.

  36. I have to disagree Meher baby,

    I think Trent could potentially be a revelation and counter any assumed losses in WA on election night.

  38. MB:

    Didn’t she say that she once went on a date with Nick X? To Maccas! Didn’t go well, apparently. I wonder why.

    I would have thought a Senator could afford to eat somewhere a little nicer than that!

  39. FUBAR: “Never understood why Blamey rose so high. Should have been sacked for Buna-Gona. Now, I see how he survived so long.”

    If you mean through his association with Cairns, that wasn’t a factor. Cairns didn’t become any sort of player within the ALP until the late 1940s.

    I think Blamey’s longevity in command despite his very mixed performance came from a combination of a lack of credible alternatives and (not to be underestimated) his ability to get on with/suck up to the senior military commanders of other nations: eg, Wavell and Macarthur.

  40. leftieBrawler at 9.14 pm

    Don’t assume any Labor losses in WA, even in Tangney, where a good local MP, Sam Lim, could hang on.

    Why? The Libs will have to fight two elections (State and Federal) within 2 months, with little resources.

  41. DEECA Victoria (confirming C@t):

    “Extreme weather has resulted in the physical collapse of six transmission towers near Anakie this afternoon, leading to widespread power outages across the State.

    “This event resulted in the Loy Yang A power station disconnecting from the grid, while storm damage has led to further localised power outages.”

    https://twitter.com/DEECA_Vic/status/1757307408958013696

  42. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:10 pm
    Entropy,
    It’s ‘quip’ I believe.
    =========================================

    Both spellings are acceptable, google it. Though next time do it before correcting me.

  43. Further to the Essential primaries posted by Nadia88 @8:54, my estimate of Labor 2PP is:

    31 + (5/6)*14 + 0*34 +(3/8)*8+(1/2)*13 = 52.2%, round to 52.

  44. Steve777says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2024 at 9:14 pm
    Re Nadia88 @8:54.

    So we have:
    Labor + Green: 45 (no change)
    Coalition: 34 (no change)
    Everyone else: 21 (no change)

    Looks like status quo.

    Margin of error ~ 3%.

    =====================================
    Thanks Steve777

    There has been no bounce with regards to the S3 revision. Nothing at all. I can’t see it.
    Regardless,

    BT indicates an ALP Primary of 31.9. Gut feeling it should tick up to about 32.3 when it’s next updated (ie: Redbridge/Morgan & Essential). Not a big jump. In fact no noticeable boost since announcing the changes to S3. Something else is at play. Could be immigration, could be interest rate hikes, could be broken promise. The latter is possibly important – voters don’t like it, regardless of what the promise is that’s broken.

  45. Taylormade @ #1017 Tuesday, February 13th, 2024 – 6:32 pm

    Herald Sun
    David Davis.
    “A key responsibility of the Victorian government is to ensure a reliable, secure and affordable power supply is available. They failed this test on Tuesday.
    _____________________
    D’Ambrosio needs to be managed out.

    Dude, Climate Change is eating our Energy infrastructure’s lunch! It’s not a matter of who’s in power you silly goose!

  46. Fair enough Dr Doolittle,

    Without going into any real detail I actually have a family member from the WA side of my father’s family up for reelection in the WA state parliament. I don’t want to name the seat however what do you think the chances of reelection are for some of the members on 20% plus? can you or William provide a list of seats assumed to be the first to go in a correction at the next WA state election?

  47. “Russia has put Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas on a wanted list, an official register showed on Tuesday, as tensions soar between Russia and the West over Ukraine.

    Kallas’ name appeared on the interior ministry’s register of people wanted in connection with criminal charges. It didn’t specify what charges Kallas was facing, AP reported.

    It is the first time the ministry has put a foreign leader on a wanted list. Kallas has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, spearheading efforts to increase military assistance to Kyiv and tighten sanctions against Russia.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/feb/13/russia-ukraine-war-live-moscow-kyiv-starlink-latest-updates

  49. “ AE: I see you’re back on the forum so, come on, hit me with your best shot.

    And you’d better have some of those French submarines at your disposal, and not the useless AUKUS set up. ”

    ____

    Sorry, you’ll have to wait for your Tuckering. … Perhaps tomorrow.

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