Roy Morgan remains the only regularly reporting pollster to have returned for the year on voting intention, but Essential Research presumably isn’t far off. Past experience suggests it should be at least another week before Newspoll is back in the game. Which leaves us with:
• UPDATE: There are now voting intention results for the YouGov poll mentioned below. Labor’s two-party lead is out to 52-48 from 51-49 in the final poll last year, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up three), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 13% (down two), One Nation 7% (steady).
• This week’s Roy Morgan poll found Labor with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, after the Coalition led 51-49 upon the pollster’s return for the year a week ago. The primary votes were Labor 31.5% (up two-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (down two), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 4.5% (down half). The poll was conducted from a sample of 1727 last Monday to Sunday.
• Pollster DemosAU, which produced accurate polling on the Indigenous Voice referendum, has a poll showing strong support for a republic referendum in the next five years, but also that any given model for a republic will have a hard time ahead of it. On the former count, 47% said yes and 39% no, a notable contrast with Freshwater Strategy’s finding of 55% opposition to a referendum “now”. On the latter, “direct election with open nomination” trailed the status quo 38-41; “executive president/US model” trailed 35-43; “ARM ‘Australian choice’ model” trailed 32-45; the 1999 referendum proposal trailed 27-48; and the McGarvie model, for all its impeccable credentials, did worst of all at 27-49. The aforementioned are summaries of more detailed question wordings that can be found on the methodology statement. The poll was conducted January 8 to 12 from a sample of 1300.
• YouGov has an Australia Day themed poll finding 49% support for keeping the holiday as its present date, 21% for changing the date, and 30% favouring a “two-day public holiday that celebrates old and new”. Respondents were also which of three options was closest to their view concerning Peter Dutton’s call for a boycott of Woolworths and Big W: support for Dutton’s position, which scored 20%; support for Woolworths and Big W, which scored 14%; and “my main concern with supermarkets now is excessive price rises rather than this issue”, accounting for the remaining 66%. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1532.
Other news:
• Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail reports the by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat of Inala simultaenously with Queensland’s local government elections on March 16, and that the Liberal National Party is expected to field a candidate for the safe Labor seat. Labor’s candidate is likely to be Margie Nightingale, former teacher and policy adviser to Treasurer Cameron Dick.
• Liberal preselection nominations have closed for Kooyong and Goldstein, where Josh Frydenberg and Tim Wilson were respectively defeated by teal independents in 2022. As previous reports indicated, Kooyong will be a four-way contest between Amelia Hamer, Susan Morris, Michael Flynn and Rochelle Pattison, with Hamer boasting the support of Frydenberg. In addition to Wilson and the previously reported Stephanie Hunt, the Goldstein preselection will also be contested by IPA research fellow Colleen Harkin. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the preselections are likely to be held shortly after the Dunkley by-election.
• Dan Jervis-Bardy of The West Australian reports Patrick Hill, Canning mayor and former police officer, and Howard Ong, a Singapore-born IT consultant, will seek Liberal preselection in Tangney, where the party suffered one of its worst defeats of the 2022 election at the hands of Labor’s Sam Lim. The report says the former member, Ben Morton, is understood to have ruled himself out. It also relates that Senator Michaelia Cash is marshalling support for Moore MP Ian Goodenough in the face of a preselection challenge from former Stirling MP Vince Connelly.
Bizzcan @ #2146 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 9:59 pm
Nothing. Because he will never be Prime Minister, that’s why.
FWIW I think this is a good move by Labor. It’s a risky move but the government was drifting. It now has a progressive vision to sell. Good luck to them.
nathsays:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 9:45 pm
C@t you need to whip some of the stooges into shape. They are falling to pieces.
========================================================================
Nath you have forgotten your roll. You are the bad cop. It is bystander that plays good cop and encourages those you wish to divide further down that path of division.
Quote: “Alas! So the gods did beckon me to my death! I thought the good Deiphobus was at my side; but he is in the town, and Athene has fooled me.” – Iliad
nath @ #2151 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:02 pm
Thank you for your rational take, nath. I only wish that others here eventually come around to the same rational position. Atm it’s completely irrational from some.
MelbourneMammoth at 8.14 pm and Mexicanbeemer at 8.19 pm
“The following are seats that the Coalition could win off Labor next election simply by promoting conservative culture wars and wokism …”
Where were you in the 2022 election? The Tories tried that rubbish under ProMo Morrision. If he thought it would work why is he leaving? Mr Melbourne Beemer hit the bullseye with his comment.
No logic to your list of seats, i.e. no attempt to provide evidence. You might as well draw from a hat.
The Prime Minister is back to fighting Tories. Good. And about bloody time.
Asha @ #2150 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:02 pm
About bloody time someone remembered that.
yabba says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 9:38 pm
TPOF If you are around, I apologise. I plainly got the wrong end of the stick through not scanning as effectively as I should.
___________________________________
Apology accepted and I withdraw my somewhat intemperate response.
There WILL be a letterbox campaign from Labor about this. QED. ‘How much are you getting now that you weren’t going to get from the Coalition tax cuts?’ 🙂
I reckon that from here, Dutton gets to play Yorick in a Hamlet performance.
The danger in losing seats to culture war issues is if Labor don’t fight on cost of living, especially for lower and middle-class voters.
If Labor had caved out of a desire not to break a promise to the wealthiest voters, it would’ve left them wide-open to Dutton in the short-to-medium-term straight-up copying the Trump and Johnson playbook of ‘they’re the elites on both social and economic issues now, they’re no better for you on economics and we’re gonna shake things up (by culture warring)’. Now Dutton is left being the one who isn’t laser-focused on cost of living and is distracted by other nonsense. Sucks to be him.
I agree with Nath. It is a risk, but a calculated one, vaguely reminiscent of Howard and the GST during his first term. Arguably, this course of action is less risky than the alternative, which is the government continuing to look as though they are not acting on the cost-of-living crisis. I’m cautiously optimistic that it will pay off.
(Assuming, of course, that this is actually happening and not just skuttlebutt from the media… Which I’m still a bit unclear on.)
Rainman says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 9:45 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 8:44 pm
The many Labor partisans who have supported S3 all this time have a bit of egg on their faces.
If it wasn’t for those who applied pressure for change, the greatest wealth shift to the rich would have gone through.
—————————————————————
Rex has a point. And it’s hard to argue with it.
Unless, of course, we go with TPOF’s brilliant ‘Stalinist’ argument.
__________________________________________
It’s easy to argue with it. You just have to live in the real political world, in particular accepting that the Opposition is vicious and amoral.
I have been saying for as long as Rex has been rabbiting on about cancelling s3 altogether (at least 18 months) that Labor will – at the right time – reconfigure the tax cuts to benefit those most struggling under bracket creep and the withdrawal of the LMITO. Too early and it’s a free kick to the opposition about broken promises. It has to be close enough to sink in that this broken promise will leave most people better off.
I don’t get the Stalinist bit, but it seems that Rainman has been blinded by disdain, perhaps hatred, of me and his judgement is totally fucked.
Asha @ #2162 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:10 pm
Good point. We are all assuming Albo has finally found a backbone … but we don’t actually know yet.
Mexicanbeemer at 8.28 pm
“Hopefully Albo doesn’t forget to help people on welfare and pensions.”
A good hope but a very faint one, despite Julian Hill’s efforts. Us poor blighters will have to wait longer.
ajm says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 9:15 pm
“All the money is the government’s.”
Complete nonsense. Economic illiteracy.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:07 pm
There WILL be a letterbox campaign from Labor about this. QED. ‘How much are you getting now that you weren’t going to get from the Coalition tax cuts?’
__________________________________
C@t. Sorry to sound smug, but I’ve been saying this for 18 months. You would probably know. Except it won’t be a letterbox campaign. It will be a government funded information campaign telling voters how much better off they will be under the revised s3 cuts (which are utterly essential).
FUBAR – Neat attempt to get around my comment as an “opinion” – Yours are no more significant than anyone else’s here. However two votes for Bishop? No wonder she was pissed off. The Liberals should have been ashamed of the way she was treated……
Dutton’s spreading his few women in parliament immediately behind him in the House so it looks – on TV – as though women play some kind of significant role in the Liberal party is about as shonky as it comes. You really think this man is the answer for the LNP?
Many claim he is “unelectable” but I do not hold this view.
Seeing the US voted for Trump in 2016, Dutton could be elected – as any charlatan has a chance in a democracy.
Rebecca @ #2160 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:09 pm
Exactly. And Labor are not only fighting wrt the Cost of Living, they are fighting for their people.
I believe the PM saw Dutton’s recent pronouncements, yes, just like Trump, that he’s for the little guy, the SME owners and their workers, and the PM said, not so quick! You’re a Tory and you’re actually for big business and I’m going to prove it, as today’s quick realignment between the BCA, ACCI, the Australian Industry Group and the Mining Industry Council, and the Coalition has proven. 🙂
Quote: “Thus all day long waxed the mighty fray of their sore strife, and unabatingly ever with the sweat of toil were the knees and legs and feet of each man and arms and eyes bedewed as the two hosts did battle.” – Illiad
Rebecca says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 9:52 pm
PB is wild tonight.
This honestly might be the thing that wins Labor the next election without worrying about just scraping back into power.
Dutton was onto a winner about cost of living, because federal Labor’s habitual small-target strategy left them perennially open to accusations of doing too little (from any side of politics). Now Albo has flipped the script and gets to run “we gave you the tax cut that Dutton didn’t want you to have” from now until the election, while Dutton is left sooking about how him and Kyle Sandilands got a bit less so the average voter got more.
_____________
Agree. It is a hard political equation. But in the end, Labor leadership has seen the traction Dutton has received on hammering Cost of Living. This play wedges Dutton and the tradeoff of breaking a promise with giving people money was decided as a risk worth taking. “It’s the economy, stupid” 😉
Edit: similar to what C@tmomma said.
TPOF @ #2166 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:16 pm
How about both? 🙂
It needs to be a full court press to get it into the electorate’s heads and for it to stay there, and the tables that the media were supplied with upon the original ‘speculative’ announcement on Monday showed to me that the federal government appear to be organised in that respect.
Griff @ #2171 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:18 pm
It’s hard to remember – were you one of the many Labor partisans here arguing that this would be electoral suicide as recently as yesterday?
Apologies if I am misremembering.
Rebecca says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:09 pm
The danger in losing seats to culture war issues is if Labor don’t fight on cost of living, especially for lower and middle-class voters.
If Labor had caved out of a desire not to break a promise to the wealthiest voters, it would’ve left them wide-open to Dutton in the short-to-medium-term straight-up copying the Trump and Johnson playbook of ‘they’re the elites on both social and economic issues now, they’re no better for you on economics and we’re gonna shake things up (by culture warring)’. Now Dutton is left being the one who isn’t laser-focused on cost of living and is distracted by other nonsense. Sucks to be him
_____________________________________
For once I agree with you. After over 50 years of looking at how my expectations have been dashed (or not) by how the majority of Australians vote I know that brass in pocket is the number one issue for voters and most voters are taxpayers whose income is below $150k per year.
To put it another way, the sensitivity of the hip-pocket nerve is the most powerful driver in Australian politics:
https://wordhistories.net/2023/10/07/hip-pocket-nerve/
FUBAR: “If the preselection committee think that an individual is the best candidate then they will be selected.”
Michael Towke scored 84 preselection votes.
Scott Morrison scored 8 preselection votes.
Which individual did the preselection committee think was the better candidate?
Which individual actually stood as the Liberal candidate in Cook?
So, if the Poll Bludger,commentariat is correct, Albanese has already won the next election. So who will take over from Dutton as Liberal leader?
One small detail everyone is forgetting: the Murdoch media, Sky News, 2GB, 3AW. They will still be anti Labor right up to the 2025 election.
I have to say, this is one of the most entertaining nights on Poll Bludger in some time. I wish I had some popcorn available.
I do hope they stick with the idea of increasing the tax-free threshold as part of it. It’s so low that it’s a bastard for anyone very-underemployed, because you only have to work a very small amount, plus Centrelink, to get thrown over the tax-free threshold, and then having to negotiate the issue of not withholding tax on secondary income.
Not my problem anymore, but one of those I won’t forget in a hurry.
Democracy Sausage @ #2176 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:23 pm
What tax cut are they offering?
‘I don’t get the Stalinist bit’
You do have a habit of forgetting what you said.
—— ————————————————————————
TPOF says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 8:46 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 8:44 pm
The many Labor partisans who have supported S3 all this time have a bit of egg on their faces.
If it wasn’t for those who applied pressure for change, the greatest wealth shift to the rich would have gone through.
_____________________________________
We’ve gone Stalinist absurdity here.
It’s not how I’d do it, but it makes a lot of sense.
There is risk. It needs to be sold.
Dutton will come hard on “broken promises”. Labor will need to counter strongly.
TPOF at 10.13 pm, Rainman at 9.45 pm
A short history lesson. There never ever was, anywhere, a “brilliant ‘Stalinist’ argument”.
Stalinism as it arose in Russia in the early to mid 1920s, and then spread insidiously abroad, never ever depended on arguments, even mediocre ones, not to speak of anything even mockingly brilliant.
Stalinism dependent on the euphemism of “administrative measures”, that is bullying and coercion.
Stalin was cunning, but could not comprehend policy decisions, i.e. complex things beyond thuggery.
He was characterised by comprehensive policy incoherence, and a refusal to engage in serious debate.
The extent of his crimes was beyond his most perverse dreams. He used ignorance to ‘control’ reality.
MelbourneMammoth says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 8:14 pm
The following are seats that the Coalition could win off Labor next election simply by promoting conservative culture wars and wokism, regardless of whether they get any Teal seats back:
WA – Tangney
NSW – Bennelong, Gilmore, Hunter, Paterson, Robertson
SA – Boothby
Tasmania – Lyons
NT – Lingiari
In Queensland they’ve probably got as many seats as they ever will have. In Victoria the dynamics are probably at their worst, but they could look at winning back Aston which is in the “bible belt” of southeast Melbourne, and aim to win back Dunkley at the by-election and hold onto it.
That’s eleven seats, and assuming they win back Calare and Monash from independents, that will bring them up to a net gain of thirteen, with Labor reduced to fewer seats than them, leading to a likely Coalition minority government. Not to mention the Teal seats are at small margins so it is inevitable they will regain a few of them.
As for the S3 tax cuts Labor are caught between a rock and a hard place. No option will bring them any electoral fruit.
Do nothing and they risk being accused of doing nothing for the cost of living crisis.
Repeal them and they will be accused of the mother of all broken election promises.
Amend them as mentioned this week – and the Teal members will be decimated, even if they vote against the amendments. A few virtuous Teals probably think that amendments are fair. But there are far more purely selfish rich people that will simply switch their vote to Liberal.
___________________
Why would the teals be “decimated” if they vote against the amendments? Well, strictly speaking, I can see one in ten losing. But not as a result of “selfish rich people” switching their vote from a teal that voted against any amendment. Illogical.
But if they vote for the amendments, of course that is another story 🙂
I was just listening to The Pretenders song, ‘Brass In Pocket’, as the thought occurred to me as well that that is the tl:dr of the tax changes announced by the government.
Democracy Sausage: All of those media forces have been anti-Labor for decades, and yet Labor governments keep getting elected anyway. A popular Labor leader (or even if not a popular one, one who’s correctly reading the political winds) tends not to have too much trouble finding it surmountable. I have a bridge to sell anyone who thinks Labor wins or loses elections based on what Ben Fordham thinks of them.
They don’t successfully destroy leaders unless there’s already the opportunity for the taking.
Player One says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:21 pm
Griff @ #2171 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:18 pm
“Agree. It is a hard political equation. But in the end, Labor leadership has seen the traction Dutton has received on hammering Cost of Living. This play wedges Dutton and the tradeoff of breaking a promise with giving people money was decided as a risk worth taking. “It’s the economy, stupid”
It’s hard to remember – were you one of the many Labor partisans here arguing that this would be electoral suicide as recently as yesterday?”
Apologies if I am misremembering.
_______
You are misremembering. I predicted a modification months back along with TPOF and a couple of others.
Apology accepted.
EDIT: I also voted for the Reason party last election so hardly a Labor partisan 😉
Good move from the PM!!!
You have to stand up for what you believe in!!! and for the Labor Party our bread and butter is working and middle class Australians!!!
The added bonus of looking after these groups is that they will spend the money and feed it back into the economy! where as the well off won’t
Asha @ #2177 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:24 pm
Popcorn: $15 via UberEats. Click here to order.
Asha @ #2150 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 9:32 pm
I remember. I also remember, more recently, Bore accusing people of effectively being Dutton supporters for daring to be even slightly critical of the ALP’s policy/strategy.
Do you mean Ben Fordham, Nepo Baby, and former Weather Boy on the Channel 9 Today Show? 😆
DS,
Dan Andrews ignored all those esteemed media outlets for nearly 10 years and then walked away when he had enough.
I am sure the Daily Telegraph or the Australian will come up with examples of supposed battlers finding it hard to make ends meet on 180K – 200K per annum. Those who think this is an easy sell for Labor, stop being so triumphant tonight.
Dutton has one advantage – support of most of the print and broadcast media.
Tangney’s going back to the LNP regardless, because as much as Sam Lim seems like a lovely bloke, that seat has always been so outlandishly safe Liberal that it was much akin to McGowan Labor winning the state seat of Nedlands. Some things will never be repeated.
The other seats on that list Labor shouldn’t be too worried about.
Well, of course they will. They would be no matter what the government did.
What matters is how the government communicates these changes to the electorate and their skill in anticipating and responding to the inevitable tantrums in the media.
Just look at the Victorian and Queensland state governments for examples of Labor winning election after election in spite of the media landscape being dominated by people desperate to see them out of office.
Don’t get me wrong, this could potentially backfire big time on the federal government if they stuff up the PR. But that is far from being an inevitable outcome.
Mexicanbeemer says:
“Hopefully Albo doesn’t forget to help people on welfare and pensions.”
Indeed: “everyone will get a tax cut” … except for the millions who don’t earn a taxable income.
Democracy Sausage @ #2175 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:23 pm
And the problem here is the amplification of the self-serving narratives of these outlets by the likes of the ABC. Otherwise, they would remain the niche narratives that they should be.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 10:29 pm
I was just listening to The Pretenders song, ‘Brass In Pocket’, as the thought occurred to me as well that that is the tl:dr of the tax changes announced by the government.
____________________________________
I was thinking of that. I used to think she was British – she so reflected that vibe. In fact she was from Akron Ohio. She wrote a fascinating biography that I read. So much more grungy and punk that you would think from her songs. And she actually worked with Malcolm McLaren and Vivienne Westwood in their boutique and with the Sex Pistols!
C@tmomma @ #2195 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:34 pm
For once, we agree on something. Wonders will never cease! 🙂
Wat,
Nostalgia is not what it used to be.
Oliver Sutton @ #2193 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 10:34 pm
And that’s why we will be getting more help with our Energy bills. Or did you miss that bit? Plus, we are already allowed to earn more before our pension is cut. Or did you miss that too?