Roy Morgan remains the only regularly reporting pollster to have returned for the year on voting intention, but Essential Research presumably isn’t far off. Past experience suggests it should be at least another week before Newspoll is back in the game. Which leaves us with:
• UPDATE: There are now voting intention results for the YouGov poll mentioned below. Labor’s two-party lead is out to 52-48 from 51-49 in the final poll last year, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up three), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 13% (down two), One Nation 7% (steady).
• This week’s Roy Morgan poll found Labor with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, after the Coalition led 51-49 upon the pollster’s return for the year a week ago. The primary votes were Labor 31.5% (up two-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (down two), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 4.5% (down half). The poll was conducted from a sample of 1727 last Monday to Sunday.
• Pollster DemosAU, which produced accurate polling on the Indigenous Voice referendum, has a poll showing strong support for a republic referendum in the next five years, but also that any given model for a republic will have a hard time ahead of it. On the former count, 47% said yes and 39% no, a notable contrast with Freshwater Strategy’s finding of 55% opposition to a referendum “now”. On the latter, “direct election with open nomination” trailed the status quo 38-41; “executive president/US model” trailed 35-43; “ARM ‘Australian choice’ model” trailed 32-45; the 1999 referendum proposal trailed 27-48; and the McGarvie model, for all its impeccable credentials, did worst of all at 27-49. The aforementioned are summaries of more detailed question wordings that can be found on the methodology statement. The poll was conducted January 8 to 12 from a sample of 1300.
• YouGov has an Australia Day themed poll finding 49% support for keeping the holiday as its present date, 21% for changing the date, and 30% favouring a “two-day public holiday that celebrates old and new”. Respondents were also which of three options was closest to their view concerning Peter Dutton’s call for a boycott of Woolworths and Big W: support for Dutton’s position, which scored 20%; support for Woolworths and Big W, which scored 14%; and “my main concern with supermarkets now is excessive price rises rather than this issue”, accounting for the remaining 66%. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1532.
Other news:
• Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail reports the by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat of Inala simultaenously with Queensland’s local government elections on March 16, and that the Liberal National Party is expected to field a candidate for the safe Labor seat. Labor’s candidate is likely to be Margie Nightingale, former teacher and policy adviser to Treasurer Cameron Dick.
• Liberal preselection nominations have closed for Kooyong and Goldstein, where Josh Frydenberg and Tim Wilson were respectively defeated by teal independents in 2022. As previous reports indicated, Kooyong will be a four-way contest between Amelia Hamer, Susan Morris, Michael Flynn and Rochelle Pattison, with Hamer boasting the support of Frydenberg. In addition to Wilson and the previously reported Stephanie Hunt, the Goldstein preselection will also be contested by IPA research fellow Colleen Harkin. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the preselections are likely to be held shortly after the Dunkley by-election.
• Dan Jervis-Bardy of The West Australian reports Patrick Hill, Canning mayor and former police officer, and Howard Ong, a Singapore-born IT consultant, will seek Liberal preselection in Tangney, where the party suffered one of its worst defeats of the 2022 election at the hands of Labor’s Sam Lim. The report says the former member, Ben Morton, is understood to have ruled himself out. It also relates that Senator Michaelia Cash is marshalling support for Moore MP Ian Goodenough in the face of a preselection challenge from former Stirling MP Vince Connelly.
Irenesays:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 8:06 pm
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 7:04 pm
FUBAR @ #2016 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 6:59 pm
goll says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 6:54 pm
The character assassination of Morrison. Much like the voters didn’t like Shorten in 2019. That is what lost the election for the LNP.
Boo freaking hoo. But it’s okay when the Liberals do it? To Kevin Rudd..
Rudd’s removal was a Labor organised knifing.
June 24, 2010.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-06-24/labors-shadow-men-stuck-knife-into-rudd/880078
Rudd’s preference for an Asia -Pacific community instead of AUKUS also may have been a reason.
=======================================================================
AUKUS is a nuclear power submarine deal announced in 2021 it had nothing to do with Rudd’s removal in 2010 though. If you want to say Australia and its relationships with other countries were involved. At least name a treaty that existed in 2010. As claiming AUKUS was involved just makes you look stupid.
Boerwar @ #2097 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 9:04 pm
Bullshit.
Entropy
Irene just makes shit up. Then moves right along.
FUBAR @ #2081 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 7:49 pm
This is not true
Boerwar lashing out at Albo? I honestly never thought I’d see the day.
He’s found a way to thread the needle in a way that’s perfectly sensible and doesn’t give Dutton or Murdoch much room to move. “Waaah broken promises” doesn’t work so well if it can be countered with “so you can have a bigger tax cut, which Dutton doesn’t want you to”.
Every successful government dumps policies they know to be a dud, particularly if times change in a way that makes that especially obvious. Deluding themselves into believing otherwise – while successful Labor state governments do it all the time – is how they got into this mess in the first place by leaving it until the last minute, until they were risking potentially losing a by-election due to how much it had tied their hands over cost of living assistance for the middle-class.
Boerwar would’ve given Dutton free rein to beat the hell out of Labor about cost of living while drowning in the process of trying to spin piecemeal changes that didn’t do a damn thing for the middle class. For once, Albo’s got himself out of a bind and given himself a stick to beat the hell out of Dutton with instead.
Wat , I reckon there’s a bit of Littlefinger in Chalmers… chaos is a ladder.
Albo may have cut him short on this occasion …?
FUBAR @ #2096 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 8:02 pm
All the money is the government’s. If there was no government, money would not exist. Economic relationships are a product of the way a society functions as supported by its government. There is no “natural” economic order apart form that created by society.
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 9:10 pm
Entropy
Irene just makes shit up. Then moves right along.
====================================================================
It would appear so. I blame her director though.
TPOF says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 9:05 pm
Just because you disagree with conservatives doesn’t make them or the ideology crazy. Grow up.
Rex Douglas @ #2095 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 9:01 pm
Sorry, but you’re the one who’s as dumb as dog crap. Not a high bar for you to cross, admittedly. I mean, either you know that the Coalition would have loved to campaign on Labor not supporting S1 and S2, which went to low and middle income earners, in 2022, if Labor hadn’t supported the Omnibus Bill, or you don’t know that, and you prove that you’re as dumb as dog excreta. And a vegetarian dog at that. 😐
“The Coalition will, of course, be the beneficiaries. All the so-called progressive yammering on endlessly about the S3 tax cuts have just handed a huge political victory to Dutton on a plate.”
Assuming some kind of future betrayal of Labor’s election promise:
Is definitely a very small pool of mostly anonymous posters on a polling maths site that will be responsible for PM Dutton.
It definitely will not be labor capitulating and voting for S3. It definitely won’t be them making promises in an election, and it definitely won’t be them breaking those promises in an environment where they know the damage the media and Dutton will do with ‘lies about tax’, given the LNP won an election on ‘lies about tax’ just two elections ago, before we knew that Scomo was right and Labor does lie about tax.
It is definitely none of those things it is definitely a few posts here tonight asking for basic integrity from the ‘good’ guys in Australian politics, apparently they are the good guys, personally I thought the goods guys kept their word and opposed genocide, but not the ALP apparently. And that is ok apparently.
Rex Douglas @ #2106 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 9:12 pm
*yawn*
C@t , how long after the media reports yesterday of changes to s3 was it before you realised you too were actually in favour or changes to S3?
Rebecca @ #2105 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 9:12 pm
Exactly. And Boerwar jumps straight onto the Coalition ‘Broken promise’ bandwagon. Though he’s always been a 2 bob each way person, as his commentary before elections has shown.
C@tmomma: That’s a bit harsh on poor old Rex, even if he’s coming out with some eccentric takes tonight. Even accepting the logic of voting for the cuts in the first place, they had a million opportunities to confront the aftermath of that decision in less pressing circumstances than waiting until being hamstrung by them during a by-election, amidst a cost of living crisis, at the literal eleventh hour threatened to cost them a key seat and send things off the rails.
They’ve handled it really well in the circumstances, but they wouldn’t have to dig themselves out of the poop if they hadn’t done a fair bit to get themselves in it in the first place.
Victorian Opposition Leader obviously rolled by his Party is about to suffer political death of a million arrows. All of which are coming from his side.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/23/john-pesutto-treaty-victoria-coalition-mp-press-conference-indigenous-australians
Changing the tax cuts is a political risk and will take a good campaign to sell.
However, I have been surprised by the reporting in the MSM which has largely presented the changes as designed to help those needing it most. Even when the fact that i is a broken promise, that has come across as a very secondary part of the news report. I think it’s going as well as the government could have hoped so far. Probably a fair bit of planning went into the timing and nature of the leaks and it seems to have borne fruit so far.
For the watchers of US politics, the “midnight voting” town of Dixville Notch have cast their votes in the NH GOP primary. Nikki Haley took all 6 votes cast.
While this might be seen as an embarrassment or portent for Trump’s candidacy, the predictive record of this town (both in regard to how the state votes and generally) has been mixed, especially in recent years. In fact, the town has never supported Trump – in the primary or the general, despite Trump having won NH and the GOP primaries in general both times.
The other two traditional “midnight voting” towns of Hart’s Location and Millsfield have decided to forgo midnight voting this year and will vote during the day like the rest of the state.
Excellent hatchet job by Laura Tingle on Morrison in the 730 report. Worth looking up on iView if you didn’t see it.
The Coalition has had a great deal of difficulty targeting Albanese. They know they have to destroy him to have any hope at all in the next election.
They have tried hard, of course. Dutton (and his Bludger) Darlings tried to pin the blame on Albanese for the referendum outcome, for example. They have run all sorts of kites. Airbus Albo the man who is not in touch with the people. That sort of thing. Sure, Albanese took a hit in the polling as a result but it was nothing near fatal.
Now they have the gift that will keep on giving and giving and giving. Despite the yammerings of those who insist that this is about substance of the decisions, the justice of the decisions, inflation rates, structural budget issues and even guts and vision, it is nothing of the sort.
It is about whether Albanese keeps his promises. It is about whether you can believe what comes from Albanese’s lips.
The attacks will be easy. They will be personal. They will be vicious. Some people have forgotten what this mob did to Gillard.
Untrustworthy. Does not keep his word. Does not keep his promises. So easy.
Rebecca @ #2087 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 8:53 pm
And you know that that characterisation of the past is completely misleading, don’t you? As I have had to laboriously explain to numbnuts like Rex Douglas, repeatedly, the Coalition created a 2 part wedge with their Omnibus Tax Bill of S1, S2 and S3. If Labor didn’t vote for the entirety of the Omnibus Bill then the Coalition would have campaigned in 2022 on Labor not supporting low income earners, and would, more likely than not, have won in 2022, as a result. Labor couldn’t betray their base by not voting for S1 and S2. The second part of the Coalition wedge was designed around leaving the S3 time bomb in the eventuality that Labor won in 2022. So they could only move IF they won in ’22. And here we are today. They have assessed the lay of the land and acted accordingly.
‘C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 9:22 pm
Rebecca @ #2105 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 9:12 pm
Boerwar lashing out at Albo? I honestly never thought I’d see the day.
He’s found a way to thread the needle in a way that’s perfectly sensible and doesn’t give Dutton or Murdoch much room to move. “Waaah broken promises” doesn’t work so well if it can be countered with “so you can have a bigger tax cut, which Dutton doesn’t want you to”.
Every successful government dumps policies they know to be a dud, particularly if times change in a way that makes that especially obvious.
Boerwar would’ve given Dutton free rein to beat the hell out of Labor about cost of living while drowning in the process of trying to spin piecemeal changes that didn’t do a damn thing for the middle class. For once, Albo’s given himself a stick to beat the hell out of Dutton with instead.
Exactly. And Boerwar jumps straight onto the Coalition ‘Broken promise’ bandwagon. Though he’s always been a 2 bob each way person, as his commentary before elections has shown.’
———————–
On integrity, I walk the line.
So, how do you sell a big broken promise?
What campaign works for that?
How do you deal with the attack ads, already making themselves really, showing Albanese stating a hundred times that the S3 tax cuts will be implemented.
And then they are not implemented.
We all know that any future Albanese promise is now a compromised promise, a discounted promise, a maybe promise.
ajm: That reporting shouldn’t be surprising. Successful politicians dump bad policies that they’ve previously agreed to all the time, and particularly if it’s well-justified, don’t suffer for it.
I don’t know where some federal Labor types got this idea that ever changing your position on a policy (or at least a policy supported by Murdoch and Dutton, because they’ve ‘broken promises’ on a bunch of lower-key things throughout this term) is electoral death.
There’s just no basis for that in political history outside of some specific circumstances where the pollies concerned handled it really badly. Most of the big historical political defeats around changing your mind about taxes happened before I started primary school, and I’m now precariously close to middle age.
TPOF If you are around, I apologise. I plainly got the wrong end of the stick through not scanning as effectively as I should.
Boerwar @ #2119 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 9:29 pm
More bullshit from Boerwar.
Completely different situations. Completely different topics which the Coalition will base their attacks on. And a complete misunderstanding of what the government are doing.
They are STILL delivering S3. They haven’t walked away from S3. They have simply made it fairer. And more Labor. Because they are the government and they can. That’s what having the power of the purse is all about. All the parrots in the Coalition pet shop can squawk all they like, as can those on PB, about broken promises, but they, and you, are simply failing to see the main game here. The number one issue since the Albanese government was elected, has been Cost of Living. Dutton picked that up. And he has been prosecuting that case relentlessly. He, and you, can now carry on like prize galahs about broken promises but everyone else will notice the extra money coming into the household budget. And that’s what they will remember.
So this will need legislation changes.
It goes to the senate.
The Greens and the Opposition send it to committee. Of course they will. Neither gives a flying fuck about delaying COL relief.
The Coalition spends a solid two or three months hammering Albanese’s lies.
The Greens spend a solid three months yammering about how it is not good enough. What about the poor renters? etc, etc, etc.
The question will come down to this: will the senate risk an amending the legislation?
Then the question becomes whether the Albanese Government sends it straight back to the Senate. Will the attack ads on Albanese already have done their work?
Are we looking at an early DD federal election in April/May?
GG
Thanks we are all well. I’m doing lots of AI stuff which is taking up my brain space instead of politics.
I’m sure Albo will water down the tax cuts to the wealthiest and spread them out more which is very good policy.
I’m preparing myself for four more years of Trump. At least he can’t run again after that although he will probably try. Just how many lawyers does that man have!!
Greensborough Growlersays:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 9:24 pm
Victorian Opposition Leader obviously rolled by his Party is about to suffer political death of a million arrows. All of which are coming from his side.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/23/john-pesutto-treaty-victoria-coalition-mp-press-conference-indigenous-australians
==================================================================
Deeming-Kroger effect in full swing now. Roll the best chance the party has to at least compete at the next election. Then replace them with some Dutton like nutter instead. After doing that the Victorian Liberals will then pat themselves on the back and marvel at their own brilliance.
Quote: “Confidence is the prize given to the mediocre”
ajm says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 9:10 pm
More tax revenue collected.
Higher EBIT
More investment.
Better allocation of capital.
Higher real wages growth.
andrewmcksays:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 8:21 pm
Irene says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 8:06 pm
*********
As evidence of your out dated analysis, I’d just mention that Bill Ludwig is dead. Even so, he probably has only marginally less influence on today’s Labor Party than Feeney, Bitar or Abib.
More time fighting todays battles than those of 2010 may produce better results
———
If those who made poor choices in 2010 are still making policy decisions in 2024 Labor should be worried.
Don Farrell is the Labor Trade Minister. Now.
‘Diogenes says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 9:38 pm
GG
Thanks we are all well. I’m doing lots of AI stuff….’
——————
As I watched the final episode of the Crown I wondered whether Charles III should get some AI peeps in to run the AI ruler over how the royals do the business. Would AI deliver useful insights? Or would it be a complete waste of time?
Boerwar @ #2127 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 9:38 pm
No.
This is getting ridiculous, Boerwar. You’re having a lend of yourself.
Irene @ #2131 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 9:40 pm
Nipping and tucking and embroidering your previous lies, still doesn’t take away from the fact they were lies to begin with.
Labor, including the then Leader of the Opposition voted for S3 tax cuts.
They are now going to have to go back to the Parliament because they are not implementing the S3 tax cuts but something else.
They can CALL them S3 tax cuts but they won’t be S3 tax cuts.
They will be something else.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2024 at 8:44 pm
The many Labor partisans who have supported S3 all this time have a bit of egg on their faces.
If it wasn’t for those who applied pressure for change, the greatest wealth shift to the rich would have gone through.
—————————————————————
Rex has a point. And it’s hard to argue with it.
Unless, of course, we go with TPOF’s brilliant ‘Stalinist’ argument.
C@t you need to whip some of the stooges into shape. They are falling to pieces.
Re the tax cuts, CJ Dennis has the best lament.
I’ad the money in me ‘and!
Fair dinkum! Right there, by the stand.
I tole me wife at breakfus’ time,
Straight out: ‘Trivalve,’ I sez ‘is prime.
Trivalve,’ I sez. An’, all the week,
I swear ther’s no one ‘eard me speak
Another ‘orse’s name. Why, look,
I ‘ad the oil straight from a Book
On Sund’y at me cousin’s place
When we was torkin’ of the race.
‘Trivalve,’ ‘e sez. ”Is chance is grand.’
I ‘ad the money in me ‘and!
Fair in me ‘and I ‘ad the dough!
An’ then a man ‘as got to go –
Wot? Tough? Look, if I ‘adn’t met
Jim Smith (I ain’t forgave ‘im yet)
‘E takes an’ grabs me be the coat.
‘Trivalve?’ ‘e sez. ‘Ar, turn it up!
‘Ow could ‘e win a flamin’Cup?’
Of course, I thort ‘e muster knoo.
‘Im livin’ near a trainer, too.
Right ‘ere, like that, fair in me fist
I ‘ad the notes! An’ then I missed –
Missed like a mug fair on the knock
Becos ‘is maggin’ done me block.
‘That airy goat?’ ‘e sez. ‘E’s crook!’
Fair knocked me back, ‘e did. An’ look,
I ‘ad the money in me ‘and!
Fair in me paw! An’, un’erstand,
Sixes at least I coulder got –
Thirty to five, an’ made a pot.
Today I mighter been reel rich
Rollin’ in dough! Instid o’ which,
‘Ere’s me – Aw! Don’t it beat the band?
I ‘AD THE MONEY IN ME ‘AND!
Put me clean off, that’s wot ‘e did…
Say, could yeh len’ us ‘arf a quid?
The kicker will be what Prime Minister Dutton does about taxing the rich…
Boerwar at 6.36 pm
Sharma was so incompetent as a politician that he thought presenting women with roses could lessen the odour of a party with so few female representatives, and such an anti-women set of policies. That is the sort of attitude that would not be out of place in Putin’s Russia.
He suffered a 14.8% primary swing against the Libs in the election that he won (2019), then another 7% primary swing in the second election he lost, in 2022, making a 22% primary loss overall. Nearly as bad as Rishi Sunak in terms of sustained vote erosion. In fact it’s worse. Sunak hasn’t lost as much.
Kerryn Phelps had a margin of 1.2% after the 2018 by-election. Sharma had a margin of 1.3% after the 2019 election, whereas Allegra Spender has a margin of 4.2% and lots of money to boot.
Sharma threw in the towel as a Reps contestant fairly readily and waltzed away to the Senate. While Zimmerman had a faint skerrick of occasional free thought, Sharma never experienced such beliefs.
Whatever happens to the boundaries of Wentworth with the redistribution, Spender is looking pretty.
PB is wild tonight.
This honestly might be the thing that wins Labor the next election without worrying about just scraping back into power.
Dutton was onto a winner about cost of living, because federal Labor’s habitual small-target strategy left them perennially open to accusations of doing too little (from any side of politics). Now Albo has flipped the script and gets to run “we gave you the tax cut that Dutton didn’t want you to have” from now until the election, while Dutton is left sooking about how him and Kyle Sandilands got a bit less so the average voter got more.
Diogs,
By your comment, AI seems to be a big part of the future of your cosmetic surgery practice.
I’d be interested to hear how this has evolved.
Cheers
nath @ #2137 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 9:45 pm
I know. However, I never considered Boerwar a True Believer. Look how quickly he’s gone to water tonight. ‘Prime Minister Dutton’. I mean, really? But you know with Boerwar, once he decides on his position he will spend day after day, month after month, hammering it. 🙄
Boerwar at 9.38 pm
You asked: “Are we looking at an early DD federal election in April/May?”
No, look at what Labor has to lose, especially its third Senate seat for WA gained in 2022. What happened the last time a PM had a DD brainwave? Turnbull recreated Hanson, who has been in decline since 2016. Nobody in Labor wants to give Hanson another bloody extension to her gravy boat expedition.
Boerwar @ #2135 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 9:44 pm
Yes, something that will better help those that need it. Ain’t that a crime? 😐
But, yeah, you go and die in a ditch over semantics about broken promises and what Sky and Murdoch and Peter Dutton will do and say. Labor will continue governing using their Values as their guiding light.
@Boerwar
Actually, the kicker will be what Prime Minister Dutton does about climate change.
Dr Doolittle @ #2144 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 9:57 pm
Dr Doolittle,
Boerwar has lost the plot tonight it seems. His attempt to force some fantasy political football scenario on us is just pure shenanigans.
Diogenes @ #2073 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024 – 8:34 pm
No, they really don’t.
BW,
PM peter Dutton is just a character in a Disney cartoon movie It doesn’t exist.
There are no DD triggers around atm.
Some of us still remember 2013 and the Informal Party.