Roy Morgan remains the only regularly reporting pollster to have returned for the year on voting intention, but Essential Research presumably isn’t far off. Past experience suggests it should be at least another week before Newspoll is back in the game. Which leaves us with:
• UPDATE: There are now voting intention results for the YouGov poll mentioned below. Labor’s two-party lead is out to 52-48 from 51-49 in the final poll last year, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up three), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 13% (down two), One Nation 7% (steady).
• This week’s Roy Morgan poll found Labor with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, after the Coalition led 51-49 upon the pollster’s return for the year a week ago. The primary votes were Labor 31.5% (up two-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (down two), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 4.5% (down half). The poll was conducted from a sample of 1727 last Monday to Sunday.
• Pollster DemosAU, which produced accurate polling on the Indigenous Voice referendum, has a poll showing strong support for a republic referendum in the next five years, but also that any given model for a republic will have a hard time ahead of it. On the former count, 47% said yes and 39% no, a notable contrast with Freshwater Strategy’s finding of 55% opposition to a referendum “now”. On the latter, “direct election with open nomination” trailed the status quo 38-41; “executive president/US model” trailed 35-43; “ARM ‘Australian choice’ model” trailed 32-45; the 1999 referendum proposal trailed 27-48; and the McGarvie model, for all its impeccable credentials, did worst of all at 27-49. The aforementioned are summaries of more detailed question wordings that can be found on the methodology statement. The poll was conducted January 8 to 12 from a sample of 1300.
• YouGov has an Australia Day themed poll finding 49% support for keeping the holiday as its present date, 21% for changing the date, and 30% favouring a “two-day public holiday that celebrates old and new”. Respondents were also which of three options was closest to their view concerning Peter Dutton’s call for a boycott of Woolworths and Big W: support for Dutton’s position, which scored 20%; support for Woolworths and Big W, which scored 14%; and “my main concern with supermarkets now is excessive price rises rather than this issue”, accounting for the remaining 66%. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1532.
Other news:
• Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail reports the by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat of Inala simultaenously with Queensland’s local government elections on March 16, and that the Liberal National Party is expected to field a candidate for the safe Labor seat. Labor’s candidate is likely to be Margie Nightingale, former teacher and policy adviser to Treasurer Cameron Dick.
• Liberal preselection nominations have closed for Kooyong and Goldstein, where Josh Frydenberg and Tim Wilson were respectively defeated by teal independents in 2022. As previous reports indicated, Kooyong will be a four-way contest between Amelia Hamer, Susan Morris, Michael Flynn and Rochelle Pattison, with Hamer boasting the support of Frydenberg. In addition to Wilson and the previously reported Stephanie Hunt, the Goldstein preselection will also be contested by IPA research fellow Colleen Harkin. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the preselections are likely to be held shortly after the Dunkley by-election.
• Dan Jervis-Bardy of The West Australian reports Patrick Hill, Canning mayor and former police officer, and Howard Ong, a Singapore-born IT consultant, will seek Liberal preselection in Tangney, where the party suffered one of its worst defeats of the 2022 election at the hands of Labor’s Sam Lim. The report says the former member, Ben Morton, is understood to have ruled himself out. It also relates that Senator Michaelia Cash is marshalling support for Moore MP Ian Goodenough in the face of a preselection challenge from former Stirling MP Vince Connelly.
Steve777
Yuk!
Adelaide walkover complete. Sad for test cricket. Almost 3 days lost due to lack of competition.
steve davis
And a whole weekend of it lost due to arrogant programming.
BK
Yes thousands of dollars.
Shortest ever test match in Adelaide apparently.
BK , I thought it ridiculous that the Adelaide test was played midweek and not on the weekend. It’s almost like they’re encouraging the death of test cricket.
Enjoyed reading last night’s Jan 26th discussion.
Cricket’s broadcasters were no doubt hoping that a day-night Test in Brisbane next weekend would provide some ratings competition for the Australian Open finals on a rival network.
Cricket may well be over before tennis starts on Saturday night.
”
C@tmommasays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 9:33 am
Ven,
I think the base for the Liberal Party/Coalition has shrunk, as you observed. It used to be approximately 1/3 of the electorate, now with the Teals peeled off the outside of the Liberal Abbottesque onion, it’s down to ~20%. Good observation.
”
C@tmomma
Do You know what scares me most about Dutton even though he has 20% base support?
He and his Stooges were able to convince triple that number of voters to defeat Voice referendum by saying it is against their interest.
Taking the 20% who supported a call for a boycott of Woolies as the LNP Base is a very poor assessment.
Rex
Peter Malinauskas is livid over Adelaide Oval cricket scheduling. He is not going to ease off, either.
Yeah the 20% are the dumber half of the LNP base.
Ven says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 11:41 am
“My prediction is that ALP will lose Dunkley by-election because of loss of Voice referendum and ME situation.”
Yeah-nah. I definitely wouldn’t be putting any money on that.
There’s no polling evidence to support a +6% swing. I’ll be surprised if the swing to the LNP is +3%.
Boerwarsays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 9:33 am
For those interested in the quality of Austalia’s journalism there is an open question about whether Lattouf was/is a journalist or a player.
I know that it is now usual for Sky After Dark and The Australian ‘journos’ routinely to be both.)
_____________________
It’s everywhere. Not just Sky and the Australian.
Lisa Wilkinson is a player and then we have Williams’ disclosure at the bottom of the blog.
nath says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 12:38 pm
Most of the 20% will be ONP, UA, and others. Some will be LNP base but certainly not close to all.
The 20% are probably the talkback / Sky After Dark crowd.
I think Dutton will draw back ONP and assorted lunar right crowd back into the LNP. He will be more poplar amongst that group than Morrison was.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/01/19/friday-miscellany-culture-war-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-4210623
That’d be a full of shit, all shit, shite move … not even centrist, blue Libs, ‘… Albo’s’ shit lite would sink that low?
(Bring on more no shit minor parties and independents!
RM seems to mean major parties down to 2/ 3s of PV?
:))
It seems that the PHON demographic were an outsized contributor to Dutton’s 20% of WoolieWankers ™
”
Entropysays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 11:48 am
Vensays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 11:41 am
”
Boerwarsays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 8:55 am
Dunkley byelection to be held on 2 March.
”
My prediction is that ALP will lose Dunkley by-election because of loss of Voice referendum and ME situation.
====================================================================
Are you saying the people of Dunkley support Dutton’s position on the ME situation over the Governments?. Yes Victoria voted No but it wasn’t by as big a margin as other states. Dutton is very much on the nose in Victoria too.
”
Voting is an emotional activity. If people voted with their head instead of their heart, we would be having ALP governments in 20 of the last 27 years instead LNP governments and Voice referendum should have won 80-20 instead of losing 60-40.
That is the reason most scare campaigns work.
Taylormadesays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 12:40 pm
Boerwarsays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 9:33 am
For those interested in the quality of Austalia’s journalism there is an open question about whether Lattouf was/is a journalist or a player.
I know that it is now usual for Sky After Dark and The Australian ‘journos’ routinely to be both.)
_____________________
It’s everywhere. Not just Sky and the Australian.
Lisa Wilkinson is a player and then we have Williams’ disclosure at the bottom of the blog.
===========================================================================
Can you point to any cases of perceived bias on this blog. Due to paid consultancy work as a psephology with climate 200?. Where do you believe bias ends on being paid for your services to a political entity?. For instance if i was an IT worker and had the contract to look after Menzies houses computer system. Would that make me bias too?. I note Parnell Mcguinness who runs a PR agency that does work for the Liberal Party. Is a regular columnist on Nine Media. What is your stance on her doing just that.
Fix this’: PM under fire over terror ruling
Coalition and Jewish leaders have turned up the heat on Anthony Albanese to formally declare the Hamas massacre as a terrorist act, describing the lack of action as ‘perplexing’.
Simples he is a closet Hamas sympathizer.
pied piper says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 1:03 pm
That’s a stupid thing to say.
”
Rex Douglassays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 12:23 pm
Enjoyed reading last night’s Jan 26th discussion.
”
Yeah! No wonder you are enjoying because you are the cause for that discussion and with intentional effect of removing Dutton Woolworths crap s*it nonsense from discussion.
I stand by my observation that you are Ian McPhee faction “moderate” Liberal. 🙂
Entropy says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 1:03 pm
Bias for private media organisations doesn’t matter.
Bias at the ABC does matter because they are the publicly funded media and have legislation and a charter that requires it to be unbiased.
I do not understand why the Pollsters and the Australian Republicans do not offer voters the model of cutting all ties with the Monarchy but maintaining the current system.
Change the name from Governor to President if they want.
The PM and Premiers still appoints the GG/President who retains all the powers and duties.
It is an easy change. We end up with and Australian Head of State and everything keeps trucking along as is.
Why won’t they put that up?
We have a very good system. Why change it significantly when a simple change will achieve what most people want?
FUBARsays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 1:10 pm
Entropy says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 1:03 pm
Bias for private media organisations doesn’t matter.
Bias at the ABC does matter because they are the publicly funded media and have legislation and a charter that requires it to be unbiased.
==============================================================
Are you suggesting that is what Taylormade is saying in the last sentence of his post?. Which was the particular sentence in his post i was addressing in my reply.
”
steve davissays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 12:12 pm
Adelaide walkover complete. Sad for test cricket. Almost 3 days lost due to lack of competition.
steve davis, BK and Rossmcg
My 2 cents
There is no country called West Indies
There is no region called West Indies
There is no other identity called West Indies other a cricket team.
It is British construct, which has no meaning and relevance in this day and age.
The “West Indies” cricket team are pathetic when it comes to Test cricket and 1 day cricket, which they were once masters. ( They could not even qualify for 1 day World Cup)
They just want to play T20 cricket and nothing else like Associate Cricket nations.
They should have relegated to lower ranks like Zimbabwe.
I believe they will lose to Afghanistan in Test cricket and 1 day cricket.
Perhaps they will be better off playing as individual nations.
FUBARsays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 1:06 pm
pied piper says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 1:03 pm
That’s a stupid thing to say.
=========================================================
On that we agree.
If there is a teal in the Dunkley by-election
Liberal party to fail to make it a Labor vs Liberal party 2pp
Labor vs Ind 2pp
Liberal party will struggle to get near 32.5% – It’s all over for Dutton’s Leadership
if no teal in the dunkley by-election
Liberal party primary under 36%
It’s almost all over for Dutton’s Leadership
Bias for private media organisations doesn’t matter.
Bias at the ABC does matter because they are the publicly funded media and have legislation and a charter that requires it to be unbiased.
@FUBAR
The problem is the Liberals think unbiased is the right wing propaganda that Newscorp spews out. And if the ABC don’t toe the line of that it’s biased. I think the Liberals have ruined the ABC for years. Solid news shows such as Lateline and Stateline have been thrown out through a combination of cuts and right wing management. Former Liberal party president Michael Kroger served as a director of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation at one point.
BK
“Peter Malinauskas is livid over Adelaide Oval cricket scheduling. He is not going to ease off, either.”
Yes I heard Malinauskas speak on this on Wednesday. He is correct. The whole point of spending the money on the Adelaide Oval was to bring major events within walking distance of CBD shops and restaurants.
That intention is defeated by a mid-week game that finishes early enough on Friday for visitors to fly out before the weekend.
”
pied pipersays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 1:03 pm
Fix this’: PM under fire over terror ruling
Coalition and Jewish leaders have turned up the heat on Anthony Albanese to formally declare the Hamas massacre as a terrorist act, describing the lack of action as ‘perplexing’.
Simples he is a closet Hamas sympathizer
”
I never called anyone”idiot” on PB. But I have to make an exception.
PP is crap shit nonsensical idiot.
For international test cricket to improve
Ban test cricket quality players playing in 20/20 cricket
Entropysays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 1:03 pm
_____________________
It just means I have to take it into account when reading any of his analysis on the Teals.
The rest of your post is not worth a response.
Ven at 9.11 am
With respect, the fact that Netanyahu is opposed to a Palestinian state is not news. He has been for over 30 years, which means statements from Minister Wong or others advocating for a Palestinian state, even including from the White House press secretary, are meaningless until Netanyahu is gone.
Here is some background from a very good ABC journo, John Lyons, going back to Netanyahu in 1993:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-27/gaza-netanyahu-vision-for-future-of-israel-peace-process/103147352
Even Bill Clinton, who molly-coddled Netanyahu for years, could not obscure the truth. Referring to his dinner with Israeli PM Yitzhak Rabin in 1993, after the famous handshake with Arafat, he wrote:
“Finally, he [Rabin] said, if Israel were to hold on to the West Bank permanently, it would have to decide whether to let the Arabs there vote in Israeli elections, as those who lived within the pre-1967 borders did. If the [West Bank and Gazan] Palestinians got the right to vote, given their higher birthrate, within a few decades Israel would no longer be a Jewish state. If they were denied the right to vote, Israel would no longer be a democracy but an apartheid state.” Clinton, My Life, 2004, p 545.
Netanyahu chose the apartheid state option, and implemented it in the years after Rabin was shot by a man incited by Netanyahu’s opposition to the Oslo Accords (see the Lyons article for the details). He bought time by turning the West Bank and Gaza into sort of backfiring Bantustans, and by facilitating a large immigration wave from Russia of people who refuse to understand what Rabin had achieved.
Obviously Australia has no influence on the outcome in the Middle East. Neither does the UK, not even with Lord Big Dave back in charge of foreign policy. Sunak has no positive capacity whatsoever. See:
“Then there was the latest opinion poll. Sunak’s Tories were now 27 points behind Labour. That’s the same gap that Liz Truss had after dynamiting the economy. Imagine being that bad. That mistrusted. And Rish! was supposed to be a safe pair of hands. The tech bro who could manage the party’s decline. Now he too was also officially less popular – less effective – than a lettuce. That’s some achievement. Borderline heroic.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/18/rishi-sunak-rwanda-press-conference-will-of-the-people
That leaves the Biden Administration, which, although fully aware of the consequences of having let Rabin’s nightmare scenario eventuate, shows no will to act to ensure Israel honours Rabin’s legacy.
The situation is likely to get worse, both for the residents of Gaza and for the Biden Administration.
The objective of Minister Wong is to keep the chaos at a distance. Possible in Australia, not in the US.
As a famous French diplomat once said:
“What clever man has ever needed to commit a crime? Crime is the last resort of political half-wits.”
Charles Maurice De Talleyrand.
Adelaide peeps complaining, reminds me of Ita Buttrose’s reputed joke about Adelaide:
Q. What would you do if you had six months to live?
A. I’d move to Adelaide and marry an accountant, it would feel like an eternity.
Interesting…
The Times of Israel News
Indian Navy rescues crew of Houthi-struck US ship off coast of Yemen
Warship sent to assist US Genco Picardy recovers 22 on board including nine Indian nationals; fire on vessel extinguished
https://www-timesofisrael-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.timesofisrael.com/indian-navy-rescues-crew-of-houthi-struck-us-ship-off-coast-of-yemen/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17056295893235&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.timesofisrael.com%2Findian-navy-rescues-crew-of-houthi-struck-us-ship-off-coast-of-yemen%2F
“NEW DELHI — The Indian Navy said on Thursday it had rescued the crew of a US-owned vessel in the Gulf of Aden after an attack by Yemen’s Houthi movement as tensions in the region’s sea lanes disrupted global trade.
Following the attack on the US Genco Picardy late on Wednesday, the US military said its forces had conducted strikes on 14 Houthi missiles that “presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region.”
Taylormade:
Lisa Wilkinson is a player and then we have Williams’ disclosure at the bottom of the blog.
===========================================================================
Entropy:
Can you point to any cases of perceived bias on this blog. Due to paid consultancy work as a psephology with climate 200?. Where do you believe bias ends on being paid for your services to a political entity?. For instance if i was an IT worker and had the contract to look after Menzies houses computer system. Would that make me bias too?. I note Parnell Mcguinness who runs a PR agency that does work for the Liberal Party. Is a regular columnist on Nine Media. What is your stance on her doing just that.
======================================================================
Taylormade:
It just means I have to take it into account when reading any of his analysis on the Teals.
The rest of your post is not worth a response.
================================================================
I guess i should count myself lucky i got any response at all then.
Scott
It’s hard to criticise cricketers from countries other than Australia, England (maybe) and India who choose to play short forms of the game rather than Tests.
West Indies Test team players not on multi millions a year like their Australian counterparts.
They take the money where they can.
Read the back story of Shamar Joseph. The humblest of beginnings and dedicated to providing for his family. He won’t be flipping multi-million dollar properties in Sydney’s beachside suburbs any time soon.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/cricket/in-the-backwaters-of-baracara-joseph-grew-up-bowling-lemons-and-limes-20240118-p5eya0.html
I’m as sad as anybody at the slide of Test cricket but I recognise not everybody is a fan. People vote with their pockets and while Cricket Australia seems to be as disorganised as a sporting body can be it’s a sad fact that there isn’t the interest there once was.
Unless is Australia v England or India when the visiting teams fans will be out in force.
IMHO, a Teal independent won’t win Dunkley, but would sure as hell split the Lib vote in Frankston Sth and Mt Eliza, giving Labor a comfortable victory.
Scottsays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 1:34 pm
For international test cricket to improve
Ban test cricket quality players playing in 20/20 cricket
==================================================================
They make a lot more playing 20/20 than tests though. If you did that there would be lots of tanking. As players would be trying to be worse so they could get the big bucks and not be selected in the test squad.
Wonder how French defamation law operates?
Entropy says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 2:02 pm
They make a lot more playing 20/20 than tests though. If you did that there would be lots of tanking. As players would be trying to be worse so they could get the big bucks and not be selected in the test squad
—————————————
Thats the problem 20/20 which is mainly for entertainment has harm cricket more then good in my opinion, players who should be playing are the ones who prefer that style of cricket full-time
20/20 is not competitive as other aspects of cricket like tactical for a long period of time , bowling , fielding , batting and all round fitness for over days and days
citizensays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 2:04 pm
Wonder how French defamation law operates?
WA Liberal senator Linda Reynolds has taken her defamation row with Brittany Higgins to her former staffer’s new home country, engaging a French lawyer in her pursuit of a freezing order over Higgins’ European assets.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/western-australia/reynolds-recruits-french-counsel-as-higgins-sharaz-lawsuit-escalates-20240119-p5eyma.html
___________________________________________
I dont think its about defo – obv Reynolds expects to win against Higgins / Sharaz.
It does seem from the reported comments from last year’s trial – the one point of common ground is there was no political conspiracy to get Higgins which presumably would be cause for great optimism for Reynolds.
”
Dr Doolittlesays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 1:50 pm
Ven at 9.11 am
With respect, the fact that Netanyahu is opposed to a Palestinian state is not news. He has been for over 30 years, which means statements from Minister Wong or others advocating for a Palestinian state, even including from the White House press secretary, are meaningless until Netanyahu is gone.
…………
………….
”
Dr. D
My point without breaking moratorium is that
Netanyahu threw his 3 most loyal supporters( US, UK and Australia) in current war under the metaphorical bus by clearly rejecting Two-State solution.
Despite Biden identified himself as Zionist
Biden, Sunak and Albanese advocated for Two-State solution at the end of current war. That was supposed to be the “light at the end of tunnel” for all the sufferings of people.
Now what PM Netanyahu publicly stated is that there is no light. Period.
Netanyahu is not going anywhere in near future.
Biden is facing Trump, who throws/ will throw mud at Biden whether it is true or not.
Biden is like a nut between a nut cracker.
The Australian summer Test Match Schedule used to work really well with the touring teams coming to WA, playing some warm-ups including the very successful Lilac Hill match before the first test on the old WACA pitch. The Queenslanders ruined everything by demanding the first Test be played there.
citizen says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 2:04 pm
That’s not about using French defamation laws – it is about securing the assets so they cannot be disposed of before the Australian legal actions are completed.
International test teams visiting Australia used to have game against Sheffield shield sides before and in-between test matches
Australian test teams traveling overseas used to have a similar schedule in the countries they played, like in england playing against the county sides