The News Corp Sunday papers yesterday carried a Freshwater Strategy poll showing 50-50 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 31%, Coalition 39%, Greens 14% and others 15%. This is very similar to results the same pollster produced for the Financial Review last month, differing only in that the Greens were on 13% and others 16%. The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1007.
News Corp’s coverage was incomplete with respect to voting intention and focused on attitudinal findings: that 81% said the government was not doing enough about the cost of living, 51% said the country was headed in the wrong direction, 51% expected “green measures” would increase power costs, and that while 52% said they would vote yes to a republic, 55% did not think a referendum should be held “now”. The utility of these numbers is limited by the News Corp report’s lack of detail on contrary and uncommitted responses, on which I can shed no further light.
In other news, Labor and Liberal have both confirmed their candidates for the Dunkley by-election, expected to be held late February at the soonest. Labor’s candidate is Jodie Belyea, manager of a foundation that provides tertiary scholarships for disadvantaged women, who was endorsed by the party’s national executive with backing from the Socialist Left faction. For the Liberals, Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy was chosen yesterday from a ballot of local party members with a reported 89 votes, against 40 for former state MP Donna Hope and 25 for Bec Buchanan.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Monday, January 15, 2024 at 7:47 am
UK voting intention via @OpiniumResearch, 10 – 12 Jan:
LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 27% (-)
LDEM: 11% (-)
REF: 10% (+1)
GRN: 6% (-1)
”
Atleast 2 opinion polls showed ALP PV in CON voting range. That is ridiculous to put it mildly.
Do Australian people really think ALP is almost as bad as CONs? Astonishing to put it mildly.
I want to post some more but I could be banned from PB.
Morning PB. Thanks BK, as usual.
Ruminating on the politics of on S3 and ‘cost of living’ issues this morning, it occurs to me, that with inflation easing, the zealots in the Reserve Bank are going to be hard pressed to justify yet another pull on their beloved lever IF Labor starts to roll out some ‘announceables’ now – in advance of both the Dunkley byelection and the May Budget.
Perhaps a way forward would be something like following. The government announces a tweak to S3 to be rolled out alongside ‘S4’:
* The tax free threshold is lifted from $18,600 to $22,500; the cost to the budget bottom line is to be (partially) offset by:-
* The insertion of a 33 cent tax rate to commence at $120K (this is still a tax cut of 4 cents in the dollar on the present 37 cent rate); and further offset by:-
* Scrapping plans to lift the threshold for the 45 cent rate from $180K to $200K (perhaps the 45 cent rate could be cut to say 42 cents for income earnings between $180K and $250K, with the 45 cent rate to apply over $250K).
This ‘tweak’ should deliver additional net tax cuts to everyone earning less than about $140K, whilst clawing back at least some of the up to $9K pa cuts that high income earners receive. Modest, but at least it reinserts another two ‘progressive tax’ increments.
Dog’s Brunch
Would I be correct in assuming the Woolworths reference in the item from X is to the South African company of that name?
I asked my son (serving officer) about the Padre Corps requiring ordained ministers…
His response was (I quote)
“Interesting l, and broadly true. GEN Hurley was/is a notorious bible basher. That said, Padres are very rarely called upon in a religious sense nowadays, but there is a strong group of traditionalists that will fight to the end to retain the ordained nature of the Chaplaincy Corps. I found over the last two years that my padres; despite being ordained, were largely operating as secular entities. Of course they did offer a side of religion if you were so inclined. So I actually think army is reforming its pastoral care from the ‘bottom up’ rather than as a result of ‘top down’ direction. I also suspect that while a lot of the ADF might identify as secular right now, when we’re in a fight that is not heavily one sided in our favour we might find our ordained ministers are in greater demand than we might expect after 80 years of relative peace…”
”
Socratessays:
Monday, January 15, 2024 at 9:06 am
Macarthur
You raise a good question on the Taipan helicopters. Burying them makes no sense as most are still airworthy and only halfway through their life. Ukraine could surely use them at negligible cost to Australia.
Even if not going to Ukraine these copters could have been sold for spare parts to other MH90.users. Has there been some failure to maintain them adequately?
Marles has not explained this decision adequately. I say that a lot.
”
Marles does not explain any decision adequately. For example, did he explain Australian Defence review? I don’t think so.
@ Ven (comparing UK and Australian Polling):
“ Atleast 2 opinion polls showed ALP PV in CON voting range. That is ridiculous to put it mildly.
Do Australian people really think ALP is almost as bad as CONs? Astonishing to put it mildly.
I want to post some more but I could be banned from PB.”
______
Different voting systems. Twice as much ‘left progressive’ vote is parked in the Australian Greens column than the UK Greens column. Largely because Aussie Green voters know that they get a ‘free’ second chance vote to preference one of ‘the duopoly’ over the other to help determine the formation of the Government. Also, for whatever reason (and I don’t want to relitigate that reason in this post, as the topic has been well and truly covered in other posts on Bludger – and will continue to be for this year) the ALP is suffering from some ‘mid term polling blues’.
On the other hand the UK Conservatives have been in apparent terminal polling free-fall for quite some time now. I doubt, if some ‘preferential polling’ exercise was done in the UK that the Tories would be polling at anything approaching the 49-52% 2PPP range that the ALP is at right now (a decline of 3-4 points over the course of last year) in Australian polling. Having a look at those UK polling numbers my best guess is that the Tories would struggle to get to 42% 2PP.
Ven @ #51 Monday, January 15th, 2024 – 9:43 am
That’s what the polling indicates. Why do you find it so astonishing?
Bumper Sticker
Dutton, negative blowhard.
”
Dog’s Brunchsays:
Monday, January 15, 2024 at 9:42 am
Patrick (from X) is trying to get a job as a journalist at Newscorpse.
***has potential
“
Patrick
@Prismaticks
Woolworths is the most common brand for a variety such company that is not a member in any other brand but a company with an international brand that has been in the business since it opened last summer in their store at a small business called the London area and is known as Woolworths and is the most famous in London as a major supplier to Woolworths in London which has been in business since it closed last summer in May of last year’s quarter and has since been opened to more customers in London and New New York and other York and many others have had to be sold in London as well and the it was the most expensive of these days in and then they are now.
”
WTF! gibberish! My eyes glazed over after reading a few sentences.
Now I see our fellow Liberal posters on PB keep it short. 🙂
In November 2019 the then NSW police minister, David Elliott, defended strip searches of minors, telling reporters he “would want” officers to strip-search his own children. Now a class action will shed light on this draconian practice.
https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/unlawful-strip-search-class-action-will-proceed-despite-nsw-governments-attempt-to-stop-it/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-3
@P1:
“ That’s what the polling indicates. Why do you find it so astonishing?”
Except that it doesn’t. See my previous post.
Ven @ Monday, January 15, 2024 at 10:03 am:
“Patrick
@Prismaticks
Woolworths is the most common brand for a variety such company that is not a member in any other brand but a company with an international brand that has been in the business since it opened last summer in their store at a small business called the London area and is known as Woolworths and is the most famous in London as a major supplier to Woolworths in London which has been in business since it closed last summer in May of last year’s quarter and has since been opened to more customers in London and New New York and other York and many others have had to be sold in London as well and the it was the most expensive of these days in and then they are now.”
WTF! gibberish! My eyes glazed over after reading a few sentences.
Now I see our fellow Liberal posters on PB keep it short.
===================
Ven, you could actually make out sentences in that?? You’re better than me!
“The government announces a tweak to S3 to be rolled out alongside ‘S4’”
… and dropped faster than Dutton can squawk “Great Big New Tax”.
The expression of preferences is not ‘free’, it is compelled.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #61 Monday, January 15th, 2024 – 10:05 am
Ven was talking PV, you are talking 2PP. I do agree our PV cannot be easily compared with UK PV because of the differences in voting systems. But check out the trend on Bludgertrack – Labor could soon be behind the COALition even on 2PP.
And I don’t think that is astonishing at all.
frednksays:
Monday, January 15, 2024 at 6:23 am
A lot cheaper than a nuclear sub. Australia is supplying 100 a month,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ckYz616rEc
====================================================================
Probably nearly radar invisible too. When holding a few Kg’s of plastic explosives it probably has a radar signature similar to a goose. So unless you set your anti-aircraft radar systems sensitivity to shot down every flock of large or medium size birds that fly over. It is unlikely to get these either.
The electorate is becoming more and more polarized. The centre is eroding. At the extremes this is leading to governance failure. Recent examples include Belgium and the United States.
These complementary trends are general and global. There are temporal and regional variations. These might mask the trends but the trends are there.
Naturally those at the extremes extol the erosion of the centre as something wonderful.
I assume that is until they glimpse the other side of their horse shoe.
In the last election the Greens’ vote was generally equivalent to the votes of One Nation, UAP and the like.
In fact the general trend in growth of the Greens’ vote has tended to blind self-described progressives to the even more rapid increase in the trend in vote for the extreme right.
“ “The government announces a tweak to S3 to be rolled out alongside ‘S4’”
… and dropped faster than Dutton can squawk “Great Big New Tax”.”
_________
Possibly, but more people would end up with bigger tax cuts. So there is that.
An even bolder plan would see the Government lift the tax free threshold to $25K. This would deliver greater tax cuts to everyone earning up to around $160K, even allowing for an insertion of a new 33 cent rate, as per my earlier post.
A bold government could simply cut the 45 cent rate to 42 cents (but to apply from $180K) by introducing some ‘tax saves’ by winding back just a little bit of the excessive ‘tax expenditure’ and tax concession rorts to pay for it.
If all that came in on 1 July this year, Dutton could harrumph all he wanted: with another 9+ months until the election it would be bedded in and the scare campaign would be ineffective.
Boerwar @ #67 Monday, January 15th, 2024 – 10:14 am
LOL!
“ Ven was talking PV, you are talking 2PP.”
My fundamental point is that the compulsory preferential voting system distorts primary voting polling intentions. At least when compared to a ‘first past the post’ winner takes all single member electorate system. I think we are as one on this, which kind of makes your ‘one liner’ response … a little ridiculous. The Australian greens are now polling at 12-14%. That doesnt mean that Australian Greens voters think that the ALP is as bad as the UK Tories (although some of them may think that the ALP is ‘as bad’ as the Australian Liberals, but given that they consistently preference Labor at over 80%, not many hold that thought bubble for long. At least not in the ballot booth).
Self-described progressives are the ones intent on destroying a progressive government by lying about it and by failing to acknowledge its achievements.
Self-described progressives have the same political instincts and the same political behaviours as the self-described patriots who have a shared interest in politically destroying a progressive government.
They both need destruction and despair.
They both do their best to feed that destruction and despair.
They both do FUD.
They both do wall-to-wall negativity.
They would die rather than admit that a progressive government does anything any good at all. In fact it hurts them when something works.
So sneering, sarcasm, cherry picking, lying and misrepresentation are the order of the day.
Same old, same old.
Rishi Sunak is under increasing pressure to toughen up his Rwanda bill as the Conservative Party’s deputy chairman threatened to quit and Kemi Badenoch privately warned that it did not go far enough.
Lee Anderson has told government whips that he will vote for a series of rebel amendments along with nearly 60 fellow right-wing Tory MPs when the bill returns to the Commons on Tuesday.
The Times also understands that Badenoch, the business secretary, urged the prime minister to harden up the legislation by blocking migrants lodging individual appeals against their deportation. She met Liam Booth-Smith, Sunak’s chief of staff, in No 10 last month to warn of the political consequences of failing to block individual legal challenges.
A source said: “Kemi was aware that the prime minister faced a serious rebellion and he had to try and accommodate them, so she went in to see Liam. She was trying to avoid the rebel MPs turning against the government.”
Badenoch is understood to have argued in favour of limiting individual appeals being lodged by migrants to only the most exceptional of circumstances.
In private Booth-Smith is understood to have told ministers last month that he wanted the legislation to be tough enough to prevent individual legal challenges. “He understands the importance of immigration for our voters and electoral prospects in a way some of the PM’s other advisers could not,” a source said.
However, the prime minister defied the pleas from Badenoch and opted for the current version of the bill. Clause 4 of the legislation will allow migrants to appeal against deportation to Rwanda if they can prove they face serious and irreversible harm based on their individual circumstances.
He received advice from Victoria Prentis, the attorney-general, and government lawyers warning that limiting individual legal challenges would have breached international law and the rule of law.
Sunrise host Natalie Barr has taken aim at the so-called “bracket creep” that’s ensnared hundreds of thousands more workers over recent years, as the prime minister faces mounting pressure to abandon planned reforms. Stage three tax cuts are due to take effect from July 1, abolishing the 37 per cent income tax bracket and flattening the 32.5 per cent rate to 30 per cent for those earning between $45,000 and $200,000. It would see huge numbers of Aussies instantly pay less tax on their incomes.
A report today in The Australian newspaper today reveals millions of average wage-earners will be rescued from bracket creep – describing a scenario where rising wages forces workers into higher brackets. Those earning just above $100,000 a year would save up to $1300 per year in income tax, while those on $150,000 would get back $4000 and those earning more than $180,000 would get a $6000 reprieve. The analysis shows almost one million workers would benefit by the end of the decade.
But the future of the reforms has been under a darkening cloud recently, despite Anthony Albanese committing to them at the last election. “The PM is facing pressure from people within his own party for the tax cuts to be abolished or scaled back,” Barr said on the Channel 7 breakfast show today.
National Party MP Barnaby Joyce, appearing on air, described it as “a slow-burning swindle on the Australian people” and demanded the government provide clarity on where it stands. “Well, he never went to an election saying he was going to get rid of them and therefore we want him to honour his promise,” Mr Joyce told Barr. “This is not the government’s money – it’s your money. And your effective tax rate has gone up, therefore the government is taking more of your money. “The stage three tax cut is about giving some of your money back to you.”
‘Right wing megaphone’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/jan/15/australian-news-live-penny-wong-middle-east-gaza-denmark-housing-queen-mary-frederik-yemen
Andrew_Earlwood @ #70 Monday, January 15th, 2024 – 10:21 am
My “one liner” was that the polling indicates people do indeed find Labor almost as bad as the conservatives (i.e. the COALition). All the evidence you could want is right on this very page, in BludgerTrack.
It may be astonishing to you, but I doubt it would be very astonishing to those outside the PB bubble.
Katyal and Weissmann on Trump’s ‘unhinged’ immunity claim & associated issues:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0r9cpRpfrPo
Boerwar @ #71 Monday, January 15th, 2024 – 10:24 am
Says the poster who sneeringly and sarcastically refers to anyone to the left of him (which I think is just about everyone) as a “self described progressive” …
LOL again!
Wrecker Dutton at it again. A Woolies has been vandalized.
So-called progressives attack some industries and they defend others.
Industries on the hate list: irrigation, almonds, cotton, beef cattle, sheep, dairy cattle, defence industries, the timber industry and so on. Basically any industry that does not benefit them directly. The human wreckage should they succeed in destroying those inudustries simply does not touch them.
But the so-called progressives love the tourism industry despite the fact that tourism generates 8% of the worlds CO2, smashes biodiversity and uses huge amounts of housing which could be used to solve the world’s homeless problem.
Travel miles, materials miles, food miles, land clearing and infrastructure builds all contribute.
Tourism is entirely a matter of personal consumption – mostly by the world’s wealthiest people.
Today’s tourism CO2 will still be in the atmosphere in 2200.
The difference is just so obvious. So-called progressive love travel. They love tourism. They love getting on a plane. They love consuming nature. Self-awareness is not a strong point of so-called progressives.
Interesting that you always seem to leave out the fossil fuel industries in your obsessive rants, Bore.
I wonder why that is?
Regarding the S3 tax cuts, if Labor did make changes, would it be able to get these changes through the senate, or would they be part of a supply bill?
Bennelong Lurkersays:
Monday, January 15, 2024 at 9:53 am
Dog’s Brunch
Would I be correct in assuming the Woolworths reference in the item from X is to the South African company of that name?
================================================================
It appears to have been a London Stock Exchange listed company. So separate from either the South African or Australian companies of the same name. Obviously its relevance to the ASX listed company called Woolworths (besides sharing a name) is pretty much zero.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woolworths_Group_(United_Kingdom)
Boerwar says:
Monday, January 15, 2024 at 10:40 am
Wrecker Dutton at it again. A Woolies has been vandalized.
I note ABC article says Duttons office has been contacted. Hmmm…good luck there!
‘Douglas and Milko says:
Monday, January 15, 2024 at 10:55 am
Regarding the S3 tax cuts, if Labor did make changes, would it be able to get these changes through the senate, or would they be part of a supply bill?’
———————————-
They were legislated so it would require legislation to change them. Theoretically it could be either, I believe, but it would be highly unusual to tack them on to Supply. So any changes to S3 would require a political shitfight. You can guarantee that the so-called progressives in the senate would gang up with their soul mates in UAP, One Nation, the Liberals and the Nationals to send the Bill off to a committee. Guaranteed delays. Guaranteed stunting. Guaranteed political bullshitting.
All in the national interest, of course!
Boerwar,
Thanks, that is my guess. Labor would never get ay change through the senate.
I note that scientists have yet to figure out an explanation about why there was a step-change in the record global temperatures last year. Some are even wondering whether some unknown tipping point has been triggered.
The important thing is to keep consuming to the max and emitting whatever until enough voters force democracies to face the facts and enough dictators and theocrats realize that climate change is a risk to their regimes and that they must switch from fossil fuels.
#plus 2.5 is starting to look low ball.
Boerwar @ #86 Monday, January 15th, 2024 – 11:05 am
I hope this is a joke … but I suspect it may not be … 🙁
‘Douglas and Milko says:
Monday, January 15, 2024 at 11:04 am
Boerwar,
Thanks, that is my guess. Labor would never get ay change through the senate.’
———————————————
As noted above the extremists on both sides of the horseshoe have a sort of self-fulfilling political need to demonstrate that governance is failing. If they can help that along, they will.
The growing problem for the remaining functioning democracies is that it is always much easier to wreck as Trump, Bandt and Dutton are demonstrating.
Joyce was at S3 this morning. Dutton will be at S3 for lunch. Bandt will be at S3 this afternoon.
Boerwar says:
Monday, January 15, 2024 at 11:05 am
I note that scientists have yet to figure out an explanation about why there was a step-change in the record global temperatures last year. …’
———————
Perhaps it is time to poll climate scientists as follows:
‘Bearing in mind that tourism generates 8% of the worlds CO2, smashes biodiversity and uses huge amounts of housing which could be used to solve the world’s homeless problem.
Travel miles, materials miles, food miles, land clearing and infrastructure builds all contribute.
Tourism is entirely a matter of personal consumption – mostly by the world’s wealthiest people.
Today’s tourism CO2 will still be in the atmosphere in 2200.’
Do you support the immediate shutting down of the tourism industry in order to save some of what is left of the planet’s climate systems?
Taylormade @ #28 Monday, January 15th, 2024 – 8:05 am
Are you kidding me!?! I said yesterday he seems to me like an overweight, doughy-faced individual with zero definition in his appearance. If that’s what you think is attractive to females then I have a bridge made out of dough I want to sell you.
Is Nathan Conroy related to former Senator Conroy ?
Obsessive. Embarrassing. Sad. 🙁
C@tmomma, do you think Taylormade will acknowledge either of our responses to his little sexist drive-by?
C@tmomma says:
Are you kidding me!?! I said yesterday he seems to me like an overweight, doughy-faced individual with zero definition in his appearance. If that’s what you think is attractive to females then I have a bridge made out of dough I want to sell you.
______________
And yet if he was a Labor candidate you would be calling him big boned and doing some chubby chasing.
Macarthur @ #93 Monday, January 15th, 2024 – 11:19 am
Are you kidding!?! He lives and dies by his drive-by sprays. 😆
Entropy @10.57 am:
Thank you. Was pretty sure the London Woolworths wasn’t “our” Woollies.
Sometimes – in as much as I think of you at all – which is rarely – I do wonder whether you are wilfully obtuse P1, or just thick. A recap:
Me:
“I think we are as one on this, which kind of makes your ‘one liner’ response … a little ridiculous.”
You:
“My “one liner” was that the polling indicates people do indeed find Labor almost as bad as the conservatives (i.e. the COALition). All the evidence you could want is right on this very page, in BludgerTrack.
It may be astonishing to you, but I doubt it would be very astonishing to those outside the PB bubble.”
______
What makes your line liner ridiculous is that it simply doesn’t engage with Ven’s exasperation when he posed the rhetorical question of whether people really think ALP is as bad as the CONs.
Clearly he was asking whether people think the AUSTRALIAN Labor Party (which is in government down under) is as bad as the UNITED KINGDOM Conservative Party (in government of those blighted isles).
We all know – rouge polls and brief outlier periods aside – that the ALP vs LNP 2PP has operated within a 45-55 range for an age. In fact -without checking I’d guess that the 10 year average is probably at around 51-49 to labor – which is reflective of current polling. Ven knows that. We all do. That was not what his exasperated rhetorical question was directed at. The fact that you are still digging in on an entirely different – and self evident – point leads me to suspect that you are indeed just thick.
Oh look. Statler and Waldorf have popped up in their balcony seats together again.
The Maritime Union of Australia has backed down from a week of disruptive industrial action against the stevedoring giant DP World, pulling plans for eight-hour delays and bans on certain shipping lines.
But it is continuing with a program of lower-level stoppages and disruptions, including two-hour pauses on work and staff refusing overtime, in pursuit of a 16 per cent pay rise for its members over two years.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton said on Sunday that the government should intervene in the dispute, accusing Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke of giving a “green light” to the militant MUA by refusing to get involved.
On Monday, Australian Council of Trade Unions secretary Sally McManus blasted those calls, saying DP World was a foreign-owned company that was part of an industry making record profits. “We have Peter Dutton getting up like he’s a union delegate for the sheikhs and sultans of Dubai, backing them in all the way, rather than his own people, the Australian people and their families,” Ms McManus said.
DP World Australia has a complex ownership structure but is operationally part of the wider Dubai-based DP World group that is owned by one of the emirate’s investment funds.
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/maritime-union-backs-down-from-most-damaging-port-work-bans-20240115-p5ex9b
For the benefit of other bludgers (given that I am dead to C@t, which suits me just fine):
“ Are you kidding me!?! I said yesterday he (Nathan Conroy) seems to me like an overweight, doughy-faced individual with zero definition in his appearance.”
His overweight, doughy-faced features seem to be on par with that other federal politics Conroy – Pie Shop Pat (ALP, Taipei).