As it usually does in the post-Christmas quiet spot, The Australian today brings us aggregated results from recent Newspoll surveys with voting intention and leaders’ ratings broken down by state and various demographic indicators. Unfortunately, only three polls have been conducted since the exercise was last conducted in mid-October, resulting in an unusually modest overall sample of 3655, breaking down to as little as 277 in the case of South Australia (with no repeat of the October aggregate’s inclusion of a Tasmanian result).
With due caution for the wide error margins, the state breakdowns are remarkable for how close they are to the results of the 2022 election, with Labor leading 51-49 in New South Wales (compared with 51.4-48.6 at the election), 55-45 in Victoria (54.8-45.2), 54-46 in Western Australia (55.0-45.0) and 55-45 in South Australia (54.0-46.0), and the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (54.0-46.0). The gender breakdowns unusually find Labor in a slightly stronger position among men (leading 53-47, out from 51-49 in the October aggregate) than women (in from 56-44 to 52-48), but I would hesitate to read much into it at this stage. You can find most of the results by clicking on the relevant tabs in the BludgerTrack poll data feature.
UPDATE: There is also today a similar exercise from Nine Newspapers from its last three monthly Resolve Strategic polls, though the interest level is limited in this case by the fact that breakdowns for the three largest states are published with each poll. Whereas Newspoll finds no state swinging by more than 1% compared with the election, Resolve Strategic, which has been markedly more favourable for Labor than other pollsters, records a very wide range of results. The pollster does not provide two-party preferred numbers, but my own estimates suggest swings to Labor of around 3.5% in New South Wales, 3% in Victoria, 6.5% in Queensland and 9% in South Australia, and to the Coalition of around 2% in Western Australia. Also featured are breakdowns by three age cohorts, which follow the usual patterns.
Entropy
Interesting data.
There are sort of two considerations, IMO.
The first is that if there is a general ME war then the Gulf Closure would be a virtual gimme.
The second is that the Saudis are, apart from Israel, Iran’s main regional enemy. There is plenty of additional acid in that competition because of Intra-Islamic sectarian hatreds. Besides, Persians/Iranians v Arabs goes back millenia.
If Iran can’t get its oil out then the Saudis are not going to be allowed to get their oil and gas out.
Murdoch’s Fox News gave Trump the platform, the megaphone and the commentary support to build the required support.
Oh, Vienna.
In 1977 the later-to-be Mrs S and I were on a ‘if it’s Tuesday, it must be Belgium’ tour of Europe.
Among our fellow travellers were an older Australian couple: he in a bowls club blazer, she with her hair in a bun. We called them ‘the Bunheads’.
As the coach headed down the autobahn, we passed a sign, ‘Wien’.
Said Mrs B to Mr B: ‘What’s that?’
Mr B: ‘Vienna’.
Mrs B (mildly indignantly): ‘Why don’t they spell it properly?’
Socratessays:
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 11:30 am
Entropy
India’s economy is growing fast, including a rapidly expanding middle class. As a % of GDP India’s defence spending is 2.4%, not much more than Australia’s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_highest_military_expenditures
Considering that they have potentially hostile neighbours on two sides (China and Pakistan) I don’t think India’s military is disproportionate. India has responded to the naval arms race in east Asia, but did not start it.
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I didn’t really commit one way or another on whether India’s military spending was justified or not. If you want to read a post that says military spending is not justified while a country still has people living in poverty. I suggest you revisit Rex’s posts, on second thoughts lets not. My point was more if India chooses to spend that way. It needs to show to its population it was justified. Certainly protecting a important trade route for India with its military assets is one way to show that their military assets were needed.
Itza:
Was relieved to see your reply to Laughtong as, when I read your comment re deafness, my immediate thought was about your being still being able to enjoy listening to music at the most rewarding of levels.
Go well and harmoniously into 2024.
Oakeshott Country @ #100 Wednesday, December 27th, 2023 – 11:48 am
Yes, good point, leaders who deny the reality. And the US is collapsing quicker than predicted, but then it is the fast of times (thought I’d go all poetic). And as Ms Lebowitz said, and not alone, he gives succour to their worst demons, legitimising hate and self interest at others’ expense. Murdoch does give him the big platform though. The current embargoed topic is accelerating things even more, much more, claim some.
India is responding to China’s repeated border military aggressions, to China’s official map which colours in large parts of India as belonging to China, to China’s logistic encirclement by way of belt and road road and rail infrastructure in Pakistan and Myanmmar, and by way of China’s aggressive building of access to naval ports in Sri Lanka and the Red Sea. The fleet units available for deployment in the Indian Ocean are part of the biggest naval build up in world peace time history.
If encirclement is a thing then that is exactly what China is trying to achieve with respect to India.
I am sure that China took the poverty of its citizens, and of India’s citizens, when it prioritized so much military expenditure and so much infrastructure aggression against India.
Bennelong Lurker @ #105 Wednesday, December 27th, 2023 – 11:54 am
You too friend. I haven’t been retested since the Steroid treatment; fingers crossed. But he said ‘moderate to profound’ which sounded a lot worse than what I perceived as the problem. Still loving the music. Live. Love it live. I do say ‘pardon’ a lot, but OH mumbles. (I think).
Must get some jobs done. Thanks.
Oliver Suttonsays:
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 11:32 am
Rossmcg says:
“That’s the most sensible opinion I’ve seen in the Sydney Morning Herald in many a year.”
Written by a reader, not a ‘journalist’.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect is worth checking out.
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Gell-Mann_Amnesia_effect#:~:text=Proper%20noun,which%20they%20are%20knowledgeable%20about.
Pied Piper.says:
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 9:39 am
Yep the weather job for lifers in the fed government’s department were saying earlier this year of most likely end to La Niña and less rain from spring onwards.
Wrong.
Known for inaccuracy and incompetence over many years the weather bureau sadly.
————————————————————
The stupidity of those that base their weather prediction based on what they see in their backyard. These are global system showing global effects. Obviously your backyard is not in Perth. Which has suffered severe drought, heat waves and bushfires. Resulting in the destruction of numerous houses and their summer season has just begun. It is likely to only get worse there.
The feds have got themselves in a jam.Live export ban should of been implemented long ago now with polls tightened and stokes media now feral in WA to labor its going to mean any ban will not come into effect for years sadly.
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 12:01 pm
India is responding to China’s repeated border military aggressions, to China’s official map which colours in large parts of India as belonging to China, to China’s logistic encirclement by way of belt and road road and rail infrastructure in Pakistan and Myanmmar, and by way of China’s aggressive building of access to naval ports in Sri Lanka and the Red Sea. The fleet units available for deployment in the Indian Ocean are part of the biggest naval build up in world peace time history.
If encirclement is a thing then that is exactly what China is trying to achieve with respect to India.
I am sure that China took the poverty of its citizens, and of India’s citizens, when it prioritized so much military expenditure and so much infrastructure aggression against India.
—————————————————————
Please read my reply to Socrates on this issue. Though the conflict with China is occurring in the Himalayas as far as i can see. So i’m unsure how you believe the naval build up i spoke of can have any affect on that?.
Thanks, Themunz.
Nice to learn that Murray Gell-Mann has another claim to fame, along with his achievements in particle physics (notably quarks).
‘pied piper says:
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 12:09 pm
The feds have got themselves in a jam.Live export ban should of been implemented long ago now with polls tightened and stokes media now feral in WA to labor its going to mean any ban will not come into effect for years sadly.’
——————————–
*lies*
I think it’s past time that Albanese publicly announce that his Govt is ceasing exporting weapons and ammunition to the Netanyahu Govt.
“with … stokes media now feral in WA to labor”
So you keep saying, PP. 🙂
Edit:
You really are Johnny One Note on those pipes.
Entropy says:
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 12:10 pm
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 12:01 pm
India is responding to China’s repeated border military aggressions, to China’s official map which colours in large parts of India as belonging to China, to China’s logistic encirclement by way of belt and road road and rail infrastructure in Pakistan and Myanmmar, and by way of China’s aggressive building of access to naval ports in Sri Lanka and the Red Sea. The fleet units available for deployment in the Indian Ocean are part of the biggest naval build up in world peace time history.
If encirclement is a thing then that is exactly what China is trying to achieve with respect to India.
I am sure that China took the poverty of its citizens, and of India’s citizens, when it prioritized so much military expenditure and so much infrastructure aggression against India.
—————————————————————
Please read my reply to Socrates on this issue. Though the conflict with China is occurring in the Himalayas as far as i can see. So i’m unsure how you believe the naval build up i spoke of can have any affect on that?.
====================
1. I did.
2. Have a look at China’s latest official map. It goes well beyond the Himalayas.
3. The strategic situation between China and India is not restricted to the Himalayas.
4. India used to be able to believe that resupply along Indian Ocean trade routes were safe. China has now ensured that this is no longer the case.
7 people dead and 2 missing currently in these Christmas period extreme weather events.
The human cost of our role as a major supplier/exporter of fossil fuels.
Why are we allies with these pricks?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/26/ohio-jury-woman-miscarriage-abuse-corpse
Did I not read Mr Bowe’s summary above correctly when he stated that Labor’s vote is holding up in WA?
Pied Piper wouldn’t lie, would he?
I see that NSW has collapsed to 9-308 in the Boxing Day test at the G.
Granny Anny,
Answer: Because we support the good guys over there who are fighting the good fight against the forces of evil.
If you abandon them then you are abandoning their fight.
Australia all out for 318.
Top scorers Labuschagne (63) and Xavier Tras (52).
Extras 52!! Bye 20 Legbye 15 Wides 15 noballs 2
C@t, maybe if they stopped sticking their beak into other people’s business and paid more attention to the problems in their own backyard the whole world might be a better place.
Rex Douglas @ 11.02am,
You are a rolled gold troublemaker. What about my explanation that I am only filling in for BK for a week did you not understand that I have to explain it to you again!?! To the extent that you are trying to create a battle where there is none!?! I can therefore only assume that you are being a miscreant because the alternative explanation is even less flattering.
@socrates:
“The Anzacs have nothing that can stop massed drones.”
______
Given that the ANZACs were built ‘for but not with’ the Phalanx CIWS there seems to me to be a pretty easy fix – simply install said units on the back of the superstructure like the RNZN have done with theirs. … i wonder IF there is an actual technical reason why the Phalanx was never installed: ie. the RAN prioritised other kit, and now there is insufficient room or weight allowances … it does seem very odd however.
Granny Anny ,
There are plenty of people over there fighting against the religious nutjobs. In Ohio they just approved a referendum to enshrine abortion in the state constitution. I’m not sure how that works with this case. I suspect that the state government is holding up implementation of it.
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 12:15 pm
Entropy says:
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 12:10 pm
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 12:01 pm
India is responding to China’s repeated border military aggressions, to China’s official map which colours in large parts of India as belonging to China, to China’s logistic encirclement by way of belt and road road and rail infrastructure in Pakistan and Myanmmar, and by way of China’s aggressive building of access to naval ports in Sri Lanka and the Red Sea. The fleet units available for deployment in the Indian Ocean are part of the biggest naval build up in world peace time history.
If encirclement is a thing then that is exactly what China is trying to achieve with respect to India.
I am sure that China took the poverty of its citizens, and of India’s citizens, when it prioritized so much military expenditure and so much infrastructure aggression against India.
—————————————————————
Please read my reply to Socrates on this issue. Though the conflict with China is occurring in the Himalayas as far as i can see. So i’m unsure how you believe the naval build up i spoke of can have any affect on that?.
====================
1. I did.
2. Have a look at China’s latest official map. It goes well beyond the Himalayas.
3. The strategic situation between China and India is not restricted to the Himalayas.
4. India used to be able to believe that resupply along Indian Ocean trade routes were safe. China has now ensured that this is no longer the case.
——————————————————————-
I’m glad to see you have noticed how bad China actually is. Many on the left have been saying it for decades over Tibet and later over what they were doing to Uyghurs. Yet the right was only interested in what they called trade opportunities. With Trade Ministers like Steven Ciobo pretty much writing love letters to Xi.
“I see that NSW has collapsed to 9-308 in the Boxing Day test at the G.”
______
Luckily NSW’s bowling attack is the best in the world right now … 😉
Wednesday, Dec 27th 2023 8AM 20°C 11AM 20°C 5-Day Forecast
Could this be the end for Anthony Albanese? TWO polls shows support plummet as two key states turn against the PM
Newspoll shows support for Labor plummeting
By ELIZA MCPHEE FOR DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA
PUBLISHED: 11:15 AEDT, 27 December 2023 | UPDATED: 12:52 AEDT, 27 December 2023
Anthony Albanese’s support has plunged among women and middle-aged voters as the Prime Minister loses support in key states that decided the last election, two polls have revealed.
The cost of living crisis is hurting Labor politically after the Reserve Bank in November raised interest rates for the 13th time in 18 months.
With inflation still high, Labor is annoying those aged between 35 to 49 battling surging mortgage repayments, as female voters also turn away from the government, the latest Newspoll found.
Mr Albanese’s favourability has also fallen in two key battlegrounds – NSW and Western Australia, where Labor gained four Perth seats from the Liberal Party at the last election.
Labor is behind in Queensland, where the party has no seats in regional areas that have long voted Labor at a state level.
The survey, conducted for The Australian, was based on a poll of 3,655 voters from October 31 to December 15.
Another survey by the Resolve Political Monitor for The Age, looked at the responses from 4,818 voters over three surveys from October to December.
Anthony Albanese ‘s government has lost support in key demographics ahead of the New Year, with the Prime Minister himself falling out of favour in some states
+2
Anthony Albanese ‘s government has lost support in key demographics ahead of the New Year, with the Prime Minister himself falling out of favour in some states
Labor’s two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition fell for those aged 35 to 49 in the latest Newspoll.
This election-deciding demographic saw its support fall from 56-44 to 53-47.
More women are also turning away from the Albanese government, with 36 per cent backing the Coalition compared with 30 per cent giving their first preference to Labor.
Nationally, support for Mr Albanese over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton fell from 51-31 to 46-35, with the PM losing favour in NSW and Queensland.
Within NSW his approval rating fell from 50 per cent to 39 per cent.
In Queensland, Mr Dutton has gained support as the preferred PM, with 41 per cent of voters surveyed by Newspoll backing the fellow Queenslander, compared with 40 per cent endorsing Mr Albanese.
Labor now holds just five seats out of 30 in Queensland, with nothing north of Brisbane, unlike previous Labor PMs.
But NSW, the Prime Minister’s home state, is considered the most important state for Labor because it’s home to 47 House of Representatives MPs out of 151.
Of Labor’s 20 most marginal seats federally, ten are in NSW, including Gilmore on the South Coast with a 0.2 per cent margin.
Labor gained three seats from the Liberal Party in NSW at the last election.
Meanwhile, in those aged between 18 and 34, Labor has a comfortable 66-34 lead over the Coalition.
The Coalition is leading in support based on primary vote to Labor 36-34, the Newspoll showed. Labor leads with a two-party-preferred vote of 52-48.
Mr Albanese has also maintained his lead in Western Australia with his party improving its two-party preferred lead of 53-47 per cent to 54-46 per cent.
Some 43 per cent prefer Mr Albanese to be prime minister compared to 32 per cent who voted for Mr Dutton.
The Resolve Political Monitor, however, showed support for Mr Albanese dipping in Western Australia, with the primary vote falling from 38 per cent to 34 per cent – lower than what it was at the last election.
In Queensland, Peter Dutton has gained support as the preferred PM, with 41 per cent of voters behind him
+2
View gallery
In Queensland, Peter Dutton has gained support as the preferred PM, with 41 per cent of voters behind him
In contrast to the Newspoll, the Resolve Political Monitor poll had 39 per cent of Queenslanders backing Mr Albanese, while Mr Dutton had less support at 32 per cent.
Labor’s primary vote in Queensland has, however, slipped from 37 per cent to 33 per cent.
Mr Albanese was the preferred PM of 43 per cent of voters, compared with Mr Dutton’s 27 per cent.
For female voters, 42 per cent rated Mr Albanese’s performance as poor in the Resolve survey, while 39 per cent said the same for Mr Dutton.
Did Pied Piper just do a massive evacuation of lies?
“TWO polls shows (sic) support plummet”
Actually, they don’t. 🙂
Entropy
‘…
I’m glad to see you have noticed how bad China actually is.
…’
———————
This one did raise a chuckle.
Or to summarise the polls:
Labor would be comfortably te-elected and the Coalition would remain an irrelevant rump, although holding a strong lead amongst north Queensland cookers.
Extras 52!! Bye 20 Legbye 15 Wides 15 noballs 2
Almost all the Byes should have been accredited against the bowlers as wides…the wicketkeeper had no chance to stop them (as an ex-wicketkeeper)
Daily Mail, paragraph 20 of 29:
“… the Newspoll showed. Labor leads with a two-party-preferred vote of 52-48.”
🙂
The Resolve Political Monitor, however, showed support for Mr Albanese dipping in Western Australia, with the primary vote falling from 38 per cent to 34 per cent – lower than what it was at the last election.
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 1:04 pm
Entropy
‘…
I’m glad to see you have noticed how bad China actually is.
…’
———————
This one did raise a chuckle.
——————————————————————–
That’s Ok, though it does appear some on here need to be reminded of the love fest right wing parties had with China till about 2020. While the left had been warning about China for decades. Ever since they started their atrocities in Tibet.
It’s Christmas: cherries are in season, and Pied Piper is picking them.
Lies abound.
I enjoy the holidays. I even took the morning off from Pollbludger 🙂
Thanks C@tmomma for filling in for BK.
Rex, pull your head in.
I agree Itzadream regarding Vienna. The architectural, cultural and epicurean delights mask a feeling of being unwelcome.
Sorry to hear you are unwell A_E and hope 2024 sees you in better condition. It’s alright, you can afford to lose a day or two. When will you realise, Sydney waits for you? (with apologies to Billy Joel)
Rex
Yesterday you mentioned that Australia and Pakistan Test match is boring.
Is it because you “Tired of Winning”? 🙂
All the MSM does is misrepresent the figures just like Trump does in these polls, putting lipstick on the pig of Dutton. Labor is always going down yet still in front in reality.
Labor feeling festive season pains around the middle
The Prime Minister ends the year with cause for concern, with key indicators in Newspoll all pointing in the wrong direction.
pp doing Darling Dutton: lying.
imaXXXXXandivote says:
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 1:08 pm
‘Extras 52!! Bye 20 Legbye 15 Wides 15 noballs 2
“Almost all the Byes should have been accredited against the bowlers as wides…the wicketkeeper had no chance to stop them (as an ex-wicketkeeper)”
I agree. Some of them went over the keeper’s head while the keeper was at full stretch. How they were not called Wide or No Ball on height grounds made no sense to me either. Just lazy umpiring IMO.
Elon Musk robot attacks worker in Tesla factory
A Tesla engineer was ambushed by a robot at the company’s Texas factory as revelations mount up about the company’s record. Two witnesses watched in horror as their colleague was attacked by the machine designed to grab and move freshly cast aluminium car part
Oh Dear!
Kevin Bonham excoriates a Dennis Shanahan article in The Australian, a few weeks back:
‘There is something badly wrong with the op ed sector of the Australian media. Many outlets continue to pay for articles that are factually shoddy and that reinforce the prejudices of partisan readers rather than helping their readers to actually understand politics. It’s perhaps a vicious cycle in which some outlets think there is no market for anything better than an echo chamber, and by offering a bad product ensure they’ll never find out otherwise.’
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/12/abyss-piece-is-another-shanashambles.html
And now … more echoes from Eliza McPhee in the Daily Mail …