Annastacia Palaszczuk has announced her imminent retirement from politics, two months short of her ninth anniversary as Premier of Queensland. This follows a period of mounting pressure on her leadership amid deteriorating opinion polls ahead of an election to be held on October 26. Palaszczcuk has endorsed Deputy Premier Steven Miles as her successor, but it appears that does not settle the matter, with one MP so far declaring support for Health Minister Shannon Fentiman. The parliamentary party has a strong incentive to settle on a consensus candidate, as a contested vote would require a process lasting several weeks in which equal weight would be given to votes of the caucus, affiliated unions and the party rank-and-file, a process that has never been tested since the state party introduced it a decade ago.
Both Miles and Fentiman are members of the Left, which commands a majority at state conference. However, the United Workers Union, and in particular its state secretary Gary Bullock, works as an individual source of power within it that has lately been allied with the Old Guard sub-faction of the Right (UPDATE: Comments feedback suggests categorising the Old Guard as part of the Right may be out of date – it has typically been identified as a third faction in recent times). The other sub-faction of the Right is the Labor Forum, dominated by the Australian Workers Union, which counts among its number Annastacia Palaszczuk and Treasurer Cameron Dick. In August, Dick took it upon himself to release a “blueprint” for how Labor could win the next election, which was widely seen as an effort to deal himself into the game. However, James Hall of the Courier-Mail assessed he would “find it challenging to secure sufficient support”.
Palaszczuk will resign as Premier later this week and from parliament next month, resulting in a by-election for her south-western Brisbane seat of Inala, which she retained in 2020 with a margin of 28.2%, making it Labor’s safest seat. It was also among the seven that remained to the party following its near annihilation at the 2012 election, which left Palaszczuk as the only plausible contender for the leadership of what remained of the parliamentary party. It has long been reckoned Palaszczuk’s successor in the seat would be her deputy chief-of-staff, Jon Persley. However, The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column noted in December that his candidacy would raise difficulties with affirmative action and the optics of imposing a political apparatchik on a multicultural electorate. Right faction sources identified an alternative in Nayda Hernandez, ward officer to local councillor Charles Strunk, who had “grassroots support”.
Thank you, William.
Cross fingers time.
Minor edit: ‘causus’ should probably be ‘caucus’.
Fixed.
I’m just pleased AP whacked the miners to the benefit of the majority of most Queenlanders.
I hope most of you all got your $175 OFF your electricity bills for THREE QUARTERS this year !!
The mining industry went CRANKY with their advertising .
Well done to Australia’s longest serving female premier.
I am not sure how she will be recorded in the history books, but she did pull off an amazing win to seize power off of “Can Do” Campbell Newman in 2015 after only one term (that is just an incredible set of elections 2012 and 2015 where the swings were so massive).
Clearly, she had expended public goodwill lately and it was time for a change. Whether it will allow her replacement enough time to build a profile and bring things back to level, time will tell.
seems miles will be next premier
The poor old LNP and their supporters – another Labor leader rides off in to the sunset at a time of their choosing!
Well played AP.
Let’s see if Newscorpse can let her retire gracefully or will they continue their constant criticism of all women not in the LNP camp.
What is it with the Murdochracy and their hatred of women?
Full time job keeping up with the Labor factions William. Affiliated unions, factions, sub-factions.
I don’t know how you do it.
I guess when Labor runs out of people to blame they start eating themselves. AP like other Labor leaders enjoyed electoral success by blaming the federal government. Now that they can’t do that they have been dreadfully exposed. There is no meaningful achievement in QLD that AP can celebrate she will be remembered as another ‘also ran’ in the history books.
Miles is a bit of a goose.
I’d love to see Fentiman get the job but the early money is on Miles.
Well done AP. I was a member of the branch that saw a by election swing of 19% against Newman half way through his term. I recall AP and the new member Anthony Lynham sitting in our backyard the day after. We were having our branch AGM (all 7 of us) when the media turned up. Anthony had already agreed to attend. What a great night that was! One of my best memories of being a branch member.
I don’t think he’s a goose Davidwh. I just think his media skills need a polish.
> I am not sure how she will be recorded in the history books.
I think she had a VERY good run. Plenty of triumphs, a few scandals here and there, but went from strength to strength electorally. She’s bowing out now because her government is looking long in the tooth, which is hardly resigning in disgrace. I have my issues with some of her and her government’s decisions, but looking back her whole premiership I conclude she’s one of the good ones, and can’t imagine history will disagree too much.
Complete piffle Astro Turf. Did you run Can Do’s second campaign?
Agree Lynchpin Fentiman would be a better choice than Miles.
So AP lost 4 seats over 3 elections as Labor Leader – half of those to the cross bench rather than to the opposition. That sounds pretty impressive -can anyone who knows their history confirm, or are those kind of numbers more common than I think?
joeldipopssays, 2 of those were won back in 2020 (Pumicestone and Bundaburg) so make that just 2, (South Brisbane and Mirani)
Her most recent budget surplus doesn’t hold up to the smallest amount of scrutiny. Increasing taxes on the resource sector during the price spike seems more like war profiteering. But I still distract from the main point, delivering a surplus is a straight forward craft when taxes are raised. But QLD is going straight back to deficit in the next cycle and now with higher taxes!! AP was another tax and spend government that enjoyed mining industry profits, duplicitous in all senses.
Josh Frydenberg and ScoMo’s tax collection was the highest in history, but the tax rates were the lowest in Australia’s neoliberal history(still high by region and world standards). This is something I can get behind a nod to Laffer curve and an awareness of economic strategy. I suspect S3 tax cuts will do the same again, the trick for Albo will be, not to spend it all at once unless his strategy is to prolong the effect of inflation on the Australian people.
She also had I think two? MPs move to the cross bench, but won both of those seats back in the next cycle? Possibly some notionally Labor seats after a redistribution (Maiwar?)
While I don’t have any strong feelings on Palaszczuk (not really a follower of QLD politics) and I am loathe to praise a politician on their electoral skills over anything they actually did with their power, I still want to tip my hat to her for being that woman who, in 2012, was elected to lead a party caucus that was so small that it could fit in a small van.
At the time, most people (I expect even Palaszczuk herself) probably saw her as someone who probably won’t be Premier but could be instrumental in rebuilding the party and maybe getting the seat count back to a competitive level for another leader down the track to capitalise on and win. Going from that position to leading the party to an election win in just one term is impressive. While, yes, the unpopularity of the Newman Government and the drag from the extremely toxic Abbott Government helped, she still deserves props for that feat.
Best of luck to the Premier who will be remembered (among other things) for beating such surmounting odds and good luck to her successor and the state of QLD.
“However, James Hall of the Courier-Mail assessed he [Dick] would “find it challenging to secure sufficient support”
The Courier-Mail: a usually unreliable source.
I really hope they don’t pick Miles. The man is and always has been a complete goose, with a huge ego that he’s very open about alongside questionable political judgment, and the LNP will absolutely slaughter him. He’s one of the most easily baited politicians I’ve ever seen.
I think Fentiman could win it, and I think Dick could stand a chance, but both the LNP and the Greens will have a field day at the next election if it’s Miles.
Lynchpin: “Well done AP. I was a member of the branch that saw a by election swing of 19% against Newman half way through his term. I recall AP and the new member Anthony Lynham sitting in our backyard the day after.”
Well done, indeed. You were privileged to be part of that moment.
That was one of two by-election swings in the order of 19% presaging (as it turned out) that CanDo CanGo.
The other was the by-election after the resignation of the LNP member for Redcliffe, Scott Driscoll, ahead of his conviction and 6-year sentence on 15 charges of fraud.
Following in the footsteps of the platoon of prisoners from Joh’s ministry.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/disgraced-mp-scott-driscoll-jailed-for-at-least-18-months-20170310-guv4z0.html
Well done for Anna. The right wing ratbags had it in for her from the start and she proved the haters wrong by winning 3 elections in a row, with increasing Labor seats at each one (from 7 to 44 in 2015, then to 48 in 2017, then to 52 in 2020).
No Australian female political leader has been more electorally successful than her, the only one that comes close is probably Clare Martin, Chief NT Minister from 2001-2007.
I’m not sure who’ll replace her, but the topic was raised briefly at family dinner tonight and my right-leaning dad said that Steven Miles has a lot of “smug wanker energy”. I can’t say if I agree with him or not since I don’t think I’ve seen much of Miles in the news from down here in Victoria. I suppose the matter will ultimately be decided in the party room.
AP saved us from the flotilla of whackos who sailed into town under the Candoe landslide. No one gave her a chance but she flew under the radar and did the impossible. She has had to withstand an extreme right wing partisan media who thought she could do nothing right but kept on winning increasing her majority at each subsequent election. Whatever happens next year the last 8 have been way better than would have been under previous bunch of jive turkeys.
Princeplanet
And the scary thing abt Queensland is that after three election losses there are still plenty of wackos in the LNP.
And the courier Mail will be right behind them.
Smart play, put the party before her own ego.
Godspeed
Look forward to hearing about her appointment to senior executive role in health care or resources
Yes Ross, the good old courier would give strong support to a bunch of homicidal lunatics from a faraway planet so long as they decided to run under the colours of the LNP. The sad thing is that those in there right now are the same brigade as the class of 2013 minus Candoe – Blieijie, Nichols, Mander,Deb, Ros Bates and Crisifulli. How will those guys be any different?
The internal polling must be terrible.
But let’s be quite clear – there was no internal leadership ructions – none whatsoever. Apparently.
Dannastacia? Both retired on their own terms – much to the chagrin of the MSM.
Maybe “it’s politics”, but it’s a bit shit – but then so are the Opposition Leaders: “Who?”
https://youtu.be/LYb_nqU_43w
(Edited, badly.)
Princeplanet: “… those in there right now are the same brigade as the class of 2013 minus Candoe – Blieijie, Nichols, Mander, Deb, Ros Bates and Crisifulli.”
Indeed: Jarrod Bleijie-Petersen, the wunderkind ‘Conveyancer General’ in Newman’s ill-fated regime.
Tim Mander*, grandson of that towering pillar of Queensland politics, Gerry Mander, and formerly head of the Scripture Union.
And Deb Frecklington, inheritor of Joh’s seat of Barambah, who, on ascending to the LNP leadership, pined publicly for the politics of the Joh era.
* I should be nice to Tim Mander: he did come to my engagement party, after all. But hey, that was a while ago.
FUBAR says:
“The internal polling must be terrible.”
The public polling is pretty much line-ball.
From a prior PB post:
“UPDATE (27/10): The Courier-Mail today has further results from the [YouGov] poll … 15% say they would be more likely to vote Labor if Annastacia Palaszczuk were replaced, 10% less likely and 61% no difference.”
*If* that’s any guide, a change of leader is unlikely to shift the dial much.
“ * I should be nice to Tim Mander: he did come to my engagement party, after all. But hey, that was a while ago.”
Did he bring his whistle?
Ah, yes, Mr Mander’s past life as a top-level rugby league referee.
Young Tim was a tender 17 years back then (a classmate of my younger brother), so his whistle-blowing days were still ahead of him, Shellbell.
Not to mention his political career …
Relax, everybody: “the LNP is on track to win the next Queensland election”, according to Radio National’s AM.
It’s been called, so sit back and don’t fret …
Err um the Qld unions want Dick!
These labor state governments are being smashed by housing shortages and health and teacher shortages because of the recent flood of 500,000 bought in by the current labor federal government.Todays stunt if you look closely at what’s been deliberately leaked by the feds will announce tinkering at the edges on population.
Is it going to have to take a primary of 25 to get the federal Labor government to seriously adjust it intake?
Own goals by fed labor they are not even taking action to sign up to the money laundering laws that many countries have in place that would stop the corrupt countries/individuals,crime gangs etc plowing billions into Australian real estate driving prices higher as is happening .
Feds know this but do nothing as they are globalists .
PP: “These labor state governments are being smashed by housing shortages and health and teacher shortages because of the recent flood of 500,000 bought in by the current labor federal government.”
You do realise that the health workforce is propped up by immigrants?
#CognitiveDissonance
There is constant comment on this blog that the Old Guard is a “subfaction of the right”. This is absolutely not correct. There are three factions in Queensland -the Left, The Old Guard/Unity, and the right/AWU/Forum. Unity votes with the Left at Conference and has done so for many years. The numbers in caucus reflect the numbers in conference. The comments about the United Workers Union are also way off the mark in the opening remarks. They have always been a left union in Queensland and remain one. They have very recently accomodated the Old Guard as well. These are facts. The media is invited to every conference but they also do not seem to understand that Queensland Labor actually has rules about the leadership selection which ALL party members must follow. The caucus does not select a leader on their own. They have one third of the votes in a ballot. Party members have one third and unions have one third. The only way this process is avoided is when there is only one nomination for leader. These are facts not opinion. People are spreading misinformation as usual.
No one can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory like the LNP.
Considering her starting position and the nature of Qld politics (just consider Federal Labor in Qld!) I think you would have to say Anna P did as well as was possible, better than any expected. She is entitled to a rest, and this timing gives Labor a chance to establish a new leader.
I guess when Labor runs out of people to blame they start eating themselves. AP like other Labor leaders enjoyed electoral success by blaming the federal government. Now that they can’t do that they have been dreadfully exposed. There is no meaningful achievement in QLD that AP can celebrate she will be remembered as another ‘also ran’ in the history books.
@Astro_turf
Absolute crap. Annastacia Palaszczuk whole election to power was people’s hatred of Campbell Newman. Palaszczuk in opposition was like the tortoise moving slow and steady. While Newman went to town through arrogance and burned through massive amounts of political capital through slash and burn micromanaging governing. Labor big themes for re-elections for the past two elections was a warning to voters not to return to a Newman type LNP government.
Palaszczuk also had to clean up a couple of screw ups after Newman was voted out. The selection of Tim Carmody as chief justice, the Tower of Power, the Vlad laws (recently disowned by Newman), and the botched $4.4 billion Indian-built trains that were ordered from the Newman government just to name a few.
Happy to be corrected, but as I understand it women have been elected State Premier by popular vote of the electorate on 5 occasions in Australian political history. AP won on 3 of those 5 occasions.
As a progressive. In Queensland.
This is no small feat. She must have done a few things right.
(I respect Carmen Lawrence, Joan Kirner, Lara Giddings, Kristina Keneally and Jacinta Allen who are/were good leaders imo, but they were elected by the ALP partyroom not the wider electorate)
Dont the Territories Count?
Rosemary Follett should not be forgotten
Moonlight,
No, they don’t. Glorified local councils.
FUBAR says:
Monday, December 11, 2023 at 12:37 pm
“Moonlight,
No, they don’t. Glorified local councils.”
Yet the ACT is approaching the population of Tasmania. Being a territory they get far less representation per capita.
Re Qld, I don’t understand why Labor often govern at the state level, but seem unable to get decent representation (as % of seats) at the federal.
All three potential Premiers you mentioned: Steven, Shannon, and Cameron would make great Labor Premiers, which goes to show the depth of talent the Queensland Labor Government has.
It seems that given the likely support each of the three candidates command, the winner will be the one that is able to convince one of the other potential Premiers to back them.
Assuming you don’t want to demote any of the other potential Premiers, here are the offers each could make to the others:
Steven could offer Shannon the Deputy Leader and choice of non-Treasury ministry. Or he could offer Cameron Deputy Leader.
Shannon could offer Cameron Deputy Leader. And would have nothing of offer Steven.
Cameron could offer Steven Treasurer. Or offer Shannon Treasurer and Deputy Leader.
In ranking the offers in terms of promotion form their current position you get:
1. Cameron offer to Shannon (Deputy Leader and Treasurer)
2. Steven offer to Shannon (Deputy Leader and choice of non-Treasury ministry)
3. Steven offer to Cameron & Shannon offer to Cameron (Deputy Leader)
5. Cameron offer to Steven (Treasurer)
Having said all this I think they will make the decision on who to back, based on who they think will make the better Premier.
Numbers as per news reports:
Steven: 22 votes (42%)
Cameron: 17 vote (33%)
Shannon: 13 vote (25%)
Very quiet here today! And Steven Miles will be the new Queensland Premier.
I wish him all the best. And I believe Labor can win the next Queensland election.
Yes, Miles to be Premier and Cameron Dick Deputy Premier.
The deal was done late last night!
I think Cameron Dick would have been the best option, Miles in my opinion is risky, Shannon Fentimen I know little about.