Resolve Strategic: Labor 35, Coalition 34, Greens 12 (open thread)

The Coalition primary vote lifts off the canvas in what remains the strongest federal polling series for Labor.

The monthly Resolve Strategic poll in the Age/Herald has the Coalition up four points on the primary vote to 34% without taking a bite out of Labor’s 35%, the balance coming from drops of one point for the Greens to 12%, two for One Nation to 5% and one for the United Australia Party to 1%. The pollster does not provide two-party preferred numbers but I get it to 54.6-45.4 to Labor – a seemingly solid result for Labor, but just shading the June poll as its weakest since the election, in line with the broader trend when Resolve’s skew to Labor relative to other pollsters is accounted for.

Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 36% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is respectively down one to 34% and up two to 42%. Preferred prime minister is little changed at 42-28 in Albanese’s favour, compared with 40-27 last month. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1605, and will presumably be followed over the next few days by a bi-monthly read of Victorian voting intention combining results from this poll and last month’s.

Also out yesterday was the weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s lead back to 51-49 after moving three points in their favour to 52.5-45 last week. The primary votes are Labor 32.5% (up half a point), Coalition 37.5% (up two-and-a-half), Greens 12.5% (down one) and One Nation 5% (steady). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1730.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,103 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 35, Coalition 34, Greens 12 (open thread)”

Comments Page 3 of 23
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  1. I do not understand this nuclear thing, the Liberals banned it. We will have converted to renewables before nuclear gets out of the block.

    What are the Liberals suggesting we should suffer power failures for a nuclear dream? It makes no sense?

  3. C@tmomma says:

    Yep. The ShortCons are even shorter than they used to be
    ______
    It wasn’t too long ago that you loved the ShortCons. Wanted them to run the country even.

  4. Soc,
    It was definitely not the donkey aspect I was referring to, so maybe a Hanrahan? Anyway, I meant it in this sense:

    He is always complaining about things in a very sad way.

    And no, no one tells me what to say, when to say it, or which Labor policy I MUST staunchly defend. And yes, I do have friends, actually, some for almost 50 years. But thanks for asking. 😐

  6. AI, art & human kind.
    AI is no substitute for humanity, human art & invention.. at best it is an overhyped tool.

    That two of its biggest proponents are Musk & Theil are full on anti social Trump supports, one wants to colonize Mars , the other fuck the planet & escape to Queens Town NZ says it all.

  8. I don’t think facts have too much to do with it.

    I think it’s more like whenever the wind changes through Labor HQ you change your mind.

  9. C@t, So your saying Sokrates is a sad case now?

    Your previous explanation for dumping on Sokrates was a troubled family upbringing wasnt it? Is that not true?

  10. I have no problem with Nuclear power, there are plenty of safe options out there and storage of nuclear waste isn’t the huge issue it’s made out to be, not when held up to damage being done by Coal etc.
    Having said that it has to make economic sense and to my mind it just doesn’t add up in Australia.
    If I could be arsed paying to upgrade to three phase power (necessary thanks to Qld regulations) I’d have an 8.2kw solar and a 10 kw battery and no power bills.
    As it stands I have to pay a few hundred dollars a quarter so the expense isn’t justified.
    Solar and Wind is just economically cheaper and better than Nuclear.
    When I was in the Army from 82 to 93 they were building the DISCON network to upgrade all the message switches across the country. It cost millions of dollars, every base had a DISCON created. Within less than 5 years every function delivered through the Commcen network (of which DISCON was a part) was redundant thanks to email.
    I suspect any Nuclear power station would take twice a long and be redundant well before being commissioned due to battery storage and other technologies currently in the pipeline.

  13. “Help, help, I’m being repressed!”

    The Australian Monarchist League says it is thrilled by news that King Charles III and Queen Consort Camilla will visit Australia next October.

    In a statement, the League noted this will be the first visit of King Charles as sovereign:

    “…we trust that the Australian and State governments will not restrict people being able to come out and welcome their new King as they did 70 years ago for the then new Queen, Elizabeth II.”

  14. “…we trust that the Australian and State governments will not restrict people being able to come out and welcome their new King as they did 70 years ago for the then new Queen, Elizabeth II.”

    What a strange remark. Security for the Royal couple, their retinue and the general public will of necessity be far stricter than it was 70 years ago but people will be welcome to come out to welcome their new King. Few will bother.

  15. Nuclear is going to happen in Australia. Just a question of when. If it requires Bowen and Albo to disappear forever from politics then so be it. Its happening around the world, just at the moment in Australia the people in key positions are stuck in the stone ages. Bowen wants an 80% wind and solar grid, what a complete laugh. You want a power system with all technologies and not put all your eggs in one basket.

  16. Should Nikki Haley fail in the 2024 presidential race — she can write her own second act as a third party candidate. “I have a lot of admiration for Nikki Haley,” former Democrat and “No Labels,” founding chair Joe Lieberman told Neal Cavuto during an appearance on Fox News’ “Your World.”
    “I haven’t spoken at all to her about this. But it is true; some of our big supporters know her well. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are talking with her.”
    Lieberman tried to explain that whatever chatter might be happening between his centrist political organization, it’s all preamble. “But honestly, she is focused on the Republican primary campaign, and she seems to be doing pretty well,” he said. “If for some reason that did not work out and we decided we were going to run a ticket —I think there would be a lot of people in ‘No Labels’ who would be happy to give consideration to Nikki Haley.”

  17. The cross examination of Higgins is torture. This is the third time they are making her go over the events of the night in the same cross examination. The judge should be putting a stop to some of this.

  18. I’m amazed the lehrmann case didn’t settle over the weekend.

    Clearly one side or both think they are better off going for a judgement.

  19. Is Landeryou still even a member of the ALP?

    Say what you like about him, his old website was immensely entertaining.

    In the worst sort of way.

  20. Lars Von Triersays:
    Tuesday, December 5, 2023 at 6:28 am
    Bludgertrack now for first time since ScoMo’s demise showing the 2PP as worse than the last election

    51.9 – 48.1

    Minority Government looms but is it with Albo?
    ——————————————————————————-

    Polls go up and down with the political winds. Remember what Morrison’s number were in January 2020 during the bushfires and what they were in May 2020 under Covid before the mishandling of the vaccine roll out dented them. Most issues that the Opposition is scoring points on now want even be around and forgotten in 6 months time. When the media moves on to new topics. I would have thought the Opposition would need some polls in which they were winning by now. As economically things are beginning to improve for the Government. If as many economists have predicted Labor is on track to deliver their second successive budget surplus. I think Labor’s poll improvement might coincide with the delivery of the mid year financial update sometime this month. In which a prediction of a budget surplus may be delivered. Just in time for the Christmas black mug sales too, though i doubt Labor will show the same hubris as LNP did in 2019 over this. Even though Labor’s surplus prediction will be after the budget had run 6 months of its course and the LNP one in 2019 was even before the budget had even reached the starters gun. I think Labor producing a second successive budget surplus will cement them as the far superior economic managers in the vast majority of voters minds. Achieving one budget surplus can be dismissed as just being just lucky by LNP spin doctors but to achieve two appears to be establishing a pattern.

  21. ”Nuclear is going to happen in Australia. Just a question of when…”

    Distraction distraction distraction..

    It may or may not happen in the fullness of time, but it has nothing to do with what we need to be doing now and over the next couple of decades to reduce emissions.

  22. “I’m amazed the lehrmann case didn’t settle over the weekend.”

    Yes, I noticed your exhortation to await the outcome gave way to prediction.

  23. It’s far too early to assume anything based on the polls.

    The default position remains that Australian governments usually get returned at their first attempt unless they are as inept as the Newman Qld government or the Baillieu/Napthine Vic govt.

    People are feeling a little negatively towards the government ATM but they should recover enough to win another term.

    The only hope for the Libs is that there is a spate of boat arrivals flowing from the High Court judgement. This can’t be ruled out IMO, but hopefully won’t happen.

    Unfortunately, there still seem to be some Labor people (possibly including Albo but definitely not O’Neil) who don’t seem fully to recognise the existential risk to their government of being seen to be soft on borders.

    It’s understandable: it took a long time for the Libs to learn that mucking around with Medicare is political poison.

  24. Michael, even the gormless James Campbell recognises the electoral poison that is nucular(sic) power.

    The fossil fuel fetishists inability to promote nuclear in the electorate, having previously denied climate change, shows how stuffed longer term coal and gas are, despite the handwringing from different directions of Abbott, P1 and integrity Rex.

  25. The law doing a bang up job of making an ass of itself this morning at the Lehrmann trial.

    Not much else seems to have been achieved though.

  26. LvT, there is no way Lehrmann would have undertaken the litigation without funding. Those who pay the piper call the tune. I suspect Lehrmann’s backer never gave a stuff for Lehrmann and Channel 10 are having too much fun.

    Poor Bruce is being paid, and played.

  27. Landeryou was once booted from the party. Nobody serious would consider he has a future in politics. Too many bridges were burnt in the wake of KK’s death and he was already toxic before then.
    The subfaction was already on the outer for their branch stacking links and nothing has changed since. The rest of the Right doesn’t want to deal with them and the Left are happy to tell them go f’ themself.

  29. I haven’t been as crass as listening or watching to the Lehrmann trial live stream. But it does seem notwithstanding the earlier excitement of yabba, Socrates et al – that from the media reports both parties (Lehrmann + Higgins) have had hits on their credibility in cross examination.

    I would have thought any litigation funder would have a keen interest in the outcome – and wouldn’t be running it for a likely loss given the likelihood of costs being awarded.

    If the outcome is uncertain , settlement is a sensible option – but presumably the parties have a much more informed view on how it is going. We will know soon enough.

  32. michael says:
    Tuesday, December 5, 2023 at 12:02 pm
    Nuclear is going to happen in Australia. Just a question of when. If it requires Bowen and Albo to disappear forever from politics then so be it. Its happening around the world, just at the moment in Australia the people in key positions are stuck in the stone ages. Bowen wants an 80% wind and solar grid, what a complete laugh. You want a power system with all technologies and not put all your eggs in one basket.

    Michael, so which party will make it a policy to start developing nuclear power?
    Certainly not the LNP, who had the opportunity to do so from September 2013 to May 2022. And didn’t. It still won’t be a LNP policy, Dutton is talking it up to attempt to make Labor squirm.
    Australias problem is the main political parties are too slow with renewable polices. Apparently the UK has, or certainly had a requirement to make a certain percentage of energy reduced renewable. In a certain timeframe. Essential to increase the build of wind, solar, hydro,…

    And in Portugal:
    https://news.yahoo.com › amphtml
    Portugal just ran on 100% renewables for six days in a row
    November 15, 2023

    As it turned out, those rainy, blustery days were just a warmup. Portugal produced more than enough renewable power to serve all its customers for six straight days, from October 31 to November 6….

    and: https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/11/first-planned-small-nuclear-reactor-plant-in-the-us-has-been-canceled/

    NuScale and its primary partner give up on its first installation.
    JOHN TIMMER – 11/9/2023, 10:18 AM With the price of renewables dropping precipitously, however, the project’s economics have worsened. Some of the initial backers started pulling out of the project earlier in the decade, although the numbers continued to fluctuate in the ensuing years.

    The final straw came on Wednesday, when NuScale and the primary utility partner, Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems, announced that the Carbon Free Power Project did not have enough utility partners at a planned checkpoint and, given that uncertainty, would be shut down. In a statement, the pair accepted that “it appears unlikely that the project will have enough subscription to continue toward deployment.”

    All to do with political will.

  33. I’ve never understood the paranoia and moral panic over “boats”. It wasn’t there when the first refugee boats arrived from Indo China in the 70s. In the 1990s talkback radio was going spare over the issue but not the broader public.

    Why all the refugee hate?

  34. Thousands of Māori protesters took to the streets across New Zealand on Tuesday morning, objecting to policies of the new government that Māori say will unravel decades of indigenous progress.
    Protesters blocked traffic on key roads and lined streets in towns and cities while calling for the coalition to scrap plans to review the Treaty of Waitangi, the country’s 180-year-old founding document which was signed between the Crown and Māori leaders.
    The new government recently announced it would dial back the use of Māori language in government organisations, and scrap anti-smoking legislation and the Māori Health Authority at a time when health issues, including lung cancer, disproportionately impact Māori.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/05/new-zealand-protest-thousands-maori-government-policies

  35. LvT, you make the mistake of assuming BL has a commercial legal funder seeking to gain financially from the litigation. I think your assumption is almost certainly wrong.

  36. Your assumption windhover it’s an unnamed billionaire or something similar.

    Presumably if that is the case and lehrmann loses we will know the answer because hpm presumably can’t meet millions in costs. If he wins we may never know the source of any funding.

  37. Windhover

    Lehrmann settled with News and the ABC before the trial.
    He said he was very happy with the settlement.
    When Chrysanthou, counsel for Wilkinson, sought to query the settlement, counsel for News appeared and basically said none of your business.
    I can’t help wondering if the News settlement involved them paying some of Lehmann’s costs in this matter.
    Just like channel 7 paid for his “accommodation “.
    With two counsel and juniors in court and Whybrow putting in the hours on Higgins to the point the trial is likely to run an extra week at least I’d guess Lehrmann’s bill will huge.

  38. I wasn’t much of an O’Neil fan back in her real early days when she just came across as a hack (Dandenong mayor era) but she hasn’t done a horrible job in the Home affairs portfolio. But this High court ruling is just a massive shit sandwich. I doubt the Liberals would have handled it any better.

  39. Windhoversays:
    Tuesday, December 5, 2023 at 12:40 pm
    LvT, there is no way Lehrmann would have undertaken the litigation without funding. Those who pay the piper call the tune. I suspect Lehrmann’s backer never gave a stuff for Lehrmann and Channel 10 are having too much fun.

    Poor Bruce is being paid, and played.

    —————————————————————————-
    Is there any evidence this is not Lehrmann’s own idea to go with this defamation?. He comes across as a bit of chancer to me. A personality that often is associated with willingness to take a high risk if there is enough gain in doing it. If he has a mysterious benefactor like Pip did in Great Expectations they have covered their tracks well. Alternatively he may have say in an undisclosed bank account an undisclosed source of wealth that is his. Maybe he was early in to cryptocurrency or Lithium miners?. Though you probably wouldn’t need an undisclosed bank account for that. So why not ruling out it being a Dickens novel type scenario. One should consider other novelists type scenario’s like Richard Condon, Matt Taibbi & Reggie Harris or Christopher Buckley to name a few. Which look into how someone with political connections, low ethics and good security clearances could acquire wealth.

  41. C@t Everybody knows if Albo gets rolled next year – you’ll be the first to line up to take a swing against the fallen leader on PB.

    @Lars Von Trier

    Lars you were predicting Albo would flame at the last federal election. I’m not sure you have alot to gloat about with your predications. Your about as credible as the boy who cried wolf.

  43. Cost of living crisis and yet still buying cars in record numbers. Makes me laugh at some of the bullshit of this supposed cost of living crisis.

    “Most popular cars Aussies are buying right now
    Australians may be in the grip of a cost-of-living crisis but they are still buying new cars in record numbers.”

  44. Well PN I said we reached peak Albo before the election – which if you look at the figures we did.

    I also said that I thought Albo would win.

    Not sure where you get this false narrative from . Be more like Rewi who said

    “Lars is right”

    Once you overcome the psychological resistance to saying it – you will feel better I promise.

  45. Still waiting for Liberal HQ to tell me how they are going to solve this so called cost of living/housing crisis. I have written to them twice and just hear crickets.

    Maybe Lars knows as he is their spokesperson.

  46. South Australian Police say a joint operation with federal authorities responsible for monitoring former immigration detainees is “working well”, despite one convicted sex offender already being charged with indecent assault of a woman just weeks after leaving his detention in Perth.
    On Tuesday, Assistant Commissioner of Crime John Venditto said there were several former immigration detainees now living in South Australia – two of which are convicted child sex offenders.
    Mr Venditto confirmed there were now six former detainees living in South Australia – one of which is in custody after allegedly assaulting the woman in Pooraka over the weekend.
    He said SA Police have the details for all detainees who have been released, regardless if they come into the state or not. “The first one who came to SA presented to a police station and we were immediately notified,” he said. “The system is working very well. Of the 145, we have six in South Australia – one in jail and five not in jail.” He said the former detainees were visited “frequently” if they were living in a temporary location.

  47. I see others have dealt with the rest of Michael’s misinformation on nuclear power but I will pick up the last bit.

    “Nuclear … It’s happening around the world, just at the moment in Australia the people in key positions are stuck in the stone ages. Bowen wants an 80% wind and solar grid, what a complete laugh. You want a power system with all technologies and not put all your eggs in one basket.”

    The irony here is that nuclear technology is much older and less modern than renewable energy technology. The first nuclear power plants went on line in the 1950s. The first solar PV cells were in a uni lab in the 80s and manufactured in the
    2000s. The earliest of modern wind turbines were in the 90s. Grid scale batteries are cutting edge technology.

    The fossils are those who dredge up nuclear to justify more coal and gas now.

  48. Lars Von Trier says:
    Tuesday, December 5, 2023 at 12:50 pm

    I would think O’Neill for one could benefit from a less demanding portfolio in any reshuffle.

    I think you should find another hobby Lars, you know something useful to pass your day !.

    Like gardening !

  50. Well PN I said we reached peak Albo before the election – which if you look at the figures we did.

    I also said that I thought Albo would win.

    Not sure where you get this false narrative from . Be more like Rewi who said

    “Lars is right”

    Once you overcome the psychological resistance to saying it – you will feel better I promise.

    @Lars

    Nothing fake. I remember when Albo had favorable polling in Newspoll and you were talking up a Morrison comeback. Its just you have a selective memory. You were gleefully putting the worse spin on it for Labor. The problem is now you would rather forget it because it doesn’t suit the narrative you want to push. Leadershit does have it drawbacks because if you don’t turn out to be correct. All the best you can do is run away from it.

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