The monthly Resolve Strategic poll in the Age/Herald has the Coalition up four points on the primary vote to 34% without taking a bite out of Labor’s 35%, the balance coming from drops of one point for the Greens to 12%, two for One Nation to 5% and one for the United Australia Party to 1%. The pollster does not provide two-party preferred numbers but I get it to 54.6-45.4 to Labor – a seemingly solid result for Labor, but just shading the June poll as its weakest since the election, in line with the broader trend when Resolve’s skew to Labor relative to other pollsters is accounted for.
Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 36% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is respectively down one to 34% and up two to 42%. Preferred prime minister is little changed at 42-28 in Albanese’s favour, compared with 40-27 last month. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1605, and will presumably be followed over the next few days by a bi-monthly read of Victorian voting intention combining results from this poll and last month’s.
Also out yesterday was the weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s lead back to 51-49 after moving three points in their favour to 52.5-45 last week. The primary votes are Labor 32.5% (up half a point), Coalition 37.5% (up two-and-a-half), Greens 12.5% (down one) and One Nation 5% (steady). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1730.
Ok folks. I generally enjoy flicking through the comments here, contributing occasionally, and don’t mind some Liberal viewpoints now and then. But with the rubbish that been coming on here about the Government being “terminal” from firstly michael, and now joined by Voice Endeavour, I’m off.
I’m o/s for several weeks and I don’t think I’ll be back.
William, I will keep donating, as its a fair return for access to your election previews and election counts.
See ya all!
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, December 7, 2023 at 3:15 pm
nath @ #750 Thursday, December 7th, 2023 – 11:39 am
PN is a stooges’ stooge. The sort of guy who attends a losing election night function and cheers as if they won.
And you would be the one cheering wildly because they lost.
______________________________________
It’s a known fact on here at least – quite a number of public figures were heard to say in May 2022 “We Lost” in reaction to ScoMo’s defeat.
The issue isn’t so much about the election being so far away it’s not important right now. Nor is it if Dutton would win “this Saturday.”
The real issue, and Labor knows it, is that once you lose a voter it’s very hard to win them back. Not impossible but very hard to turn people back once they form a negative view of you. You might still pick up their 2nd or 3rd preference but you wouldn’t be the (lost) voter’s first choice.
Cat at 3.15 pm
Nath does fiction as his genre. He’s the sort of guy who thinks that Collingwood won the flag “in a cakewalk”, because their song says so. He can’t be wrong. Because it’s fiction, he is just a non-believer in awkward facts.
Mark
Lib/nats are not getting the voters they want also , its more of a worry for the opposition at this point , particular when the opposition need the combined primary vote to be over 40%’s,
High Street @ #881 Thursday, December 7th, 2023 – 3:26 pm
Sad to see you go. You know it means one less rational voice? The Liberals here are really unbearable when they think they’ve got a sniff.
There’s like a universe of fact adjectives now Herr Doktor.
Dr Doolittle @ #884 Thursday, December 7th, 2023 – 3:31 pm
He just sits on the blog all day taking pot shots at genuinely nice people. A sad individual.
Daniel Andrews is not for federal politics.
NSW and Qld voters aren’t intelligent enough to embrace his style.
@Rex Douglas
Dan Andrews had the advantage of being premier in Victoria. Where:
1. Its the most progressive state in Australia
2. Voters are more likely to vote Labor in state politics where their trusted more on health and education. Which are viewed by voters as state issues. This is in comparison to federal politics where voters are more likely to vote Liberal. Because they are more trusted on immigration and economic management which are viewed as more federal issues.
The suggestion of successful Labor premiers going into federal politics has been done countless times to death. But realistically there two very different beasts and replicating success hasn’t really ever been done.
steve davis @ #857 Thursday, December 7th, 2023 – 2:29 pm
Peter Dutton is such a weak leader, he can’t get rid of ScamMo, and he can’t get his chosen candidates up. He’d be rolled in Cabinet on the regular, should we ever be unlucky enough to have him as PM. He’s not very bright, he was totally hopeless as Health Minister, failed as Defence Minister with his bellicose rhetoric against China, and presided over a failed department, with a crooked Secretary and poor laws, as Home Affairs Minister.
“LVT
So how is your mate Dutton going to be different from Smoko?”
Dutton is a uni-dimensional figure who is not capable of the smoke and mirrors or the sheer rat cunning of his predecessor. You know what you are getting – the most conservative prime minister in history, enough to make Tony Abbott look like Jacinda Ardern.
Pueo @ #777 Thursday, December 7th, 2023 – 1:06 pm
*cough*
laughtong @ #790 Thursday, December 7th, 2023 – 1:21 pm
They really don’t have anything new in their tool kit, do they? 🙄
Same old, same old, from the Liberals. Remember the cardboard cutout of Kevin Rudd?
It might be useful to have a spreadsheet keeping track of all the interrelated defamation writs at the moment.
Actually the song Good Old Collingwood Forever was composed when the premiership was a cakewalk for the Good Old Collingwood.
Oliver Suttonsays:
Thursday, December 7, 2023 at 2:55 pm
FUBAR:
‘… the fact that, as per her previous testimony, she did everything she could to provide support to the alleged victim and then it has been publicly alleged that none of that support was given or offered.’
That’s a fact, eh? ‘Everything she could’?
‘Higgins said Brown offered her support in the form of a phone call to the employee assistance program and said she could go home, but when she called the number on the brochure she could not get an appointment for several months.
‘Higgins said Brown also showed her a copy of the ministerial statement of standards and said she would have to inform the prime minister Scott Morrison’s office.’
Here’s a phone number, here’s a brochure, off you go …
————————————————————————–
Channel 10 or Lehrmann lawyers wouldn’t be asking her about that though. Channel 10 is running a truth defence on the rape. Not on how Brittany Higgins may or may not have been treated by the officers chief of staff. Channel 10 lawyers will only be interested in information she has that either supports Higgins story or suggests Lehrmann lied about events. Obviously Lehrmann’s lawyers will be interested in showing the reverse of that. This case has nothing to do about how Higgins was treated afterward by Brown or Reynolds or anyone else besides Lehrmann. If either sides lawyers diverge from the actual case and start prosecuting a case on how poorly Higgins was treated by her workplace. I don’t think the judge is going to allow it.
And if it succeeds, you’ll have a “proven” rape that police declined to prosecute. Which is…probably not as uncommon as it should be. Women really get the short end of the stick.
Dr Doolittle….Thank you for your exactitude.
I was in no mood to nail the actual dates/times etc, the point being that Labor has not only lead into and election and lost – despite winning the TPP – but has actually, as you have noted, accrued more of the TPP at the actual election itself. Beazley’s loss was a classic where Libs won enough key seats to form government again.
My point, which I guess I belaboured (not a pun) was that with two Mays to come, two budgets to come, cheers from the right-wing groundlings here, and woe and thrice woo from so-called Labor supporters, is way too premature.
While there is a general sour mood in the electorate, I don’t think the bulk of voters see Dutton as an option at the moment. Hence my caveat. If employment holds up, prices come down and interest rates stabilise, the LNP has not much to take to an election – also, given Labor claimed a surplus in its first budget, there is plenty to throw at the LNP for their failures over 9 years.
A second caveat, of course, is that who knows who is going to vote for whom? Just a few days ago we had one poll showing Labor well ahead, another today, somewhat closer.
As was the case when Shorten was leader, even the r/w press gave the election away. That we had three years of dreadful Liberal government was the cost we all paid for relying on “polls”.
The accepted wisdom is that after the last election the polling groups have sharpened their acts and have made changes to ensure they are not “herding” as the jargon has it.
At least with one poll last week showing Labor miles ahead, the recent one not so and every other pollster anywhere between these two extremes, news of Labor losing the next election is more than a little premature, more like stupidity.
a rsays:
Thursday, December 7, 2023 at 4:45 pm
Channel 10 or Lehrmann lawyers wouldn’t be asking her about that though. Channel 10 is running a truth defence on the rape.
And if it succeeds, you’ll have a “proven” rape that police declined to prosecute. Which is…probably not as uncommon as it should be. Women really get the short end of the stick.
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Yep, but only proven at civil level of in the balance of probability. Not to the criminal level of beyond reasonable doubt. Though if the police have a case they present to a DPP that they believe is at least good to the in balance of probability level. You would think it should proceed to court.
WGACA
Yep, but only proven at civil level of in the balance of probability. Not to the criminal level of beyond reasonable doubt. Though if the police have a case they present to a DPP that they believe is at least good to the in balance of probability level. You would think it should proceed to court.
__________________________________
Not quite how it works. The DPP has to be satisfied that the prosecution can succeed on the ‘beyond reasonable doubt” test. Even if the facts would not pass the “pub test” there may be a plausible defence that while unlikely is not unreasonable. The Sofronoff did, however, uncover that the police had been improperly applying the reasonable prospects of conviction test for about a decade when it was the DPP’s role to do that. Another reason for the lack of trust between the two.
Guardian: Coalition did not take up offer to see legal advice on immigration ruling: PM
Anthony Albanese continues:
I was asked about the minister and he has responded on the basis of the legal advice, that we have had, under the terms agreed to by the opposition, we would make available for them to go into the room, read the legal advice so that they could assure themselves of the basis of the government’s actions.
They had not read it on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday. Too interested in playing politics. They have refused to make themselves available. The member for Wannon (Dan Tehan) was busy at the races at the Jericho Cup, he was not available.
James Paterson, Senator Patterson, the shadow minister for Home Affairs, is too busy at Harvard doing a course. Senator Cash, Senator Cash was not able to find time in between Sky interviews. And the leader of the opposition has not made himself available either, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday.
They have failed to avail themselves of the offer that we made very clearly, we contacted them, we made times available, we made three times available for them and on none of them have they made themselves available to walk into the secure room and read the advice and sit down on that basis.
The Age on the Deborah Glass story seem to have changed their headline. On my paper edition it reads:
“Bureaucrats too scared to talk to Glass”
online its title now is:
“Frank but fearful: Senior bureaucrats scared of repercussions for talking to ombudsman”
Did someone ring up and give The Age an earful over the print edition headline?.
Former Treasury official and Australian Institute of Health and Welfare chief executive Rob Heferen has been named the new Commissioner of Taxation. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Mr Heferen was an “outstanding leader and one of the nation’s most experienced tax experts”, announcing his appointment from March 1 next year. A former boss of Treasury’s revenue group, Mr Heferen is known for a down-to-earth approach and command of details. He led the secretariat for the last major review of Australia’s tax system, overseen by former Treasury secretary Ken Henry.
Well, he will no doubt then strongly urge the Govt to abandon the S3 tax cuts for the rich.
Let’s not waste anymore time on the ridiculously expensive nuclear talk.
Now who should the Judge Michael Lee believe told the truth under oath?
Nikita Irvine and Brittany Higgins, or Linda Reynolds and Bruce Lehrmann.
Soooo difficult! Poor man.
Alan Jones’ lawyers have acted quickly to ensure that any allegations about Alan in a mere newspaper are put back in the closet.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/dec/07/alan-jones-sues-nine-indecent-assault-allegations-ntwnfb
Meanwhile Alan continues to enjoy the presumption of omnipotence.
“Meanwhile Alan continues to enjoy the presumption of omnipotence.”
🙂
“Well, he will no doubt then strongly urge the Govt to abandon the S3 tax cuts for the rich.”
The Commissioner should be administrating tax law, he should not be giving policy advice to treaury or the treasurer.
HH: “Former Treasury official and Australian Institute of Health and Welfare chief executive Rob Heferen has been named the new Commissioner of Taxation. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Mr Heferen was an “outstanding leader and one of the nation’s most experienced tax experts”, announcing his appointment from March 1 next year. A former boss of Treasury’s revenue group, Mr Heferen is known for a down-to-earth approach and command of details. He led the secretariat for the last major review of Australia’s tax system, overseen by former Treasury secretary Ken Henry.”
Rob hails from Tasmania. He was one of the architects of the national energy market, which I’m yet to be convinced was such a fabulous idea. He’s not one of the superstars of the public service, but he’ll go ok.
Rex: “Well, he will no doubt then strongly urge the Govt to abandon the S3 tax cuts for the rich.”
The Commissioner of Taxation’s role is to implement tax policy, not to advise on it.
WWP & mb
Of course you’re right.
I just couldn’t help myself. Forgive me.
Gosh Murray Watt is a surprise package. Brilliant in the Senate every time he’s on his feet.
Very fair and reasonable, IMHO.
Rex Douglassays:
Thursday, December 7, 2023 at 5:39 pm
If the Victorian Ombudsman’s findings that a “culture of fear”, “creeping politicisation” and “over responsiveness” are threatening good government sound familiar, then you are right, writes Tom Burton about a culture of fear, timidity and secrecy within the Victorian public service point to a deep cancer that must be frankly addressed by ministers.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/something-is-rotten-in-the-state-of-victoria-20231206-p5epf9
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Yep, it does seem to be just a vibe.
The only established fact in the story was senior Victorian bureaucrats did not want to speak to Deborah Glass. The motivation for them doing this and the cause for this motivation. Do appear to be just speculation on the part of Glass, as she never actually spoke to them. It is bit like someone concluding that because i don’t want to see the bears at the zoo i must be scared of the zoo keeper. When in fact it could just be the bears i’m scared of or i might not even be scared at all. I just don’t like how they smell. There is lots of motivation and causation being attributed by Glass with very little evidence being presented for it.
Leave the vibe to Yoda: ” I sense much fear in you”
Mining companies are now joining the whingefest about changes to IR, calling Labor economic vandals.
On AUKUS, former ASPI defence economics analyst Michael Shoebridge is having doubts about it happening in US or UK shipyards.
Timing has blown out in US shipyards. Costs are now blowing out in the UK SSN program. Lucky we are there to step in with extra cash! Not that we’re suckers or anything like that.
https://strategicanalysis.org/awkward-truths-about-us-and-uk-aukus-challenges/
The UK’s Pacific Tilt was a sales push, not a serious foreign policy idea.
For the UK, AUKUS is an export deal, not a security agreement. They want to sell us stuff because nobody in the EU will buy their stuff any more.
Meanwhile Rex Patrick now says the latest $3 billion for AUKUS to USA is for training, it is not free. That is incredibly high – we could have built our own training facility for $3 billion.
https://michaelwest.com.au/join-our-team-aukus-foreign-expenditure-sinkhole-blows-out-to-12b-already/
Socrates @ #1039 Thursday, December 7th, 2023 – 6:01 pm
I hope Rex follows the money trail…
Big Bash starts tonight. Good fun.
Dutton is a poor man’s wannabe Trump.
The LNP are seriously anti-democratic and must not be allowed anywhere near the levers of power until the current cookers have been well and truly washed through the system.
Thursday, December 7, 2023 at 1:12 pm
Sayonara Albo.
MelbourneMammothsays:
Thursday, December 7, 2023 at 1:13 pm
Try winning on a 29% primary. It’s Dutton PM in less than 18 months.
Only way this can happen is for Dutton to win the 18 electorates from Labor.
Could he win the 4 Seats with significant Chinese ancestry who changed from Liberal to Labor last election? These voters did not like Morrison’s aggressive talk, fear campaign, towards China, maybe tbe AUKUS deal, were fearful of racial abuse that could or did develop against them.
Without these 4, could be more, Labor loses its majority. However unlikely they would return to the Liberals yet.
The seats here are Bennelong, Reid (NSW), Chisholm (Vic), Tagney (WA).
Also unlikely the 4 Greens and 12 Independents electorates would be won by the Liberals.
So would have to be 18 Labor seats change to Liberal. Still think this would be unlikely. Can’t see Dutton winning the next election no matter how disappointing Labor and Albo are to many.
MacArthur and others interested in Ukraine foreign aid package.
Dems assess wreckage of border talks: ‘They never should have started’
With a foreign aid package slated to go down on the Senate floor Wednesday, Democrats aren’t hiding their frustration that border policies ever became linked to cash for Ukraine and Israel.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/06/congress-border-ukraine-deal-00130225
“Democrats are increasingly acknowledging that pairing a bipartisan border deal with new Ukraine aid is unraveling for one major reason: Most in the party never wanted this negotiation in the first place.
While key House factions like the Progressive and Hispanic Caucuses signaled more than a month ago they would oppose any immigration policy changes in a foreign aid bill, Democratic leaders and the rank-and-file in the Senate gave the bipartisan negotiators space to work out a deal. On Wednesday, it will become crystal clear that hasn’t worked out, as the GOP is expected to filibuster President Joe Biden’s foreign aid request because it lacks sufficient border security policies.
And as they assess the wreckage of the flailing negotiations to link the border with Ukraine, many Democrats now believe the talks were not set up to succeed from the beginning. While a growing number of Democrats acknowledge that surging migration at the border demands action, most of the party views the border negotiations demanded by Republicans with disinterest or even scorn.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer derided the Republican border position as “hostage-taking,” Senate Judiciary Chair Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said the mix of negotiators meant it was “never going to happen” and some House Democrats are calling on Senate leaders to pull the plug entirely.”
Rex Douglassays:
Thursday, December 7, 2023 at 6:09 pm
Big Bash starts tonight. Good fun.
_____________________
More of a Test man myself.
As expected, tabloid TV has jumped onto the A Jones story. Another defamation trial coming up? Nine/Fairfax probably wants one after their success over BRS.
Taylormade says:
Thursday, December 7, 2023 at 6:26 pm
Rex Douglassays:
Thursday, December 7, 2023 at 6:09 pm
Big Bash starts tonight. Good fun.
_____________________
More of a Test man myself.
——————————
Agree with the test cricket
Voice Endeavour
Albo will lose the next election. Avoiding a Dutton prime ministership is more important than his ego. He needs to announce his resignation today.
The biggest load of horseshit on the blog today – which is a huge call given the Lars Team ™ bleating.
The monicker reminds me of Scomo’s observation that ‘the Endeavour circumnavigated Australia’, and on this basis, wanted to erect a multi million memorial in his electorate at Kurnell.
I am wrong. The LNP hold only 55 electorates.
Impossible to win government from there. You would think.
Still AUKUS supported by Labor which is designed to be used to attack China will not go down well with Chinese ancestry voters.
If you read the Daily Dutton, which only a diminishing number of sad sacks do, or listen to Sussssan Lley – who says Albo is ‘missing in action’ – one would be like the conga line of droogs and pants wetters infesting this blog.
So for those people enjoying their pre-Xmas work parties, or looking forward to the Big Bash starting tonight (carn the Sixers) – could possibly notice that Albo is doing his job in Australia’s interests.
Today shoring up security arrangements with PNG
“Another defamation trial coming up?”
No need for the question mark, citizen:
“We have retained Senior Counsel and have instructions to immediately serve a Concerns Notice under Section 12A of the Defamation Act as the first step in the commencement of defamation proceedings“
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-07/alan-jones-denies-indecent-assault-allegations/103200252
Labor’s current woes have nothing to do with the Coalition. They are entirely self inflicted. Voters are not happy with Dutton or the Coalition either. Problem is Labor is in government and have everything to lose while the Coalition have nothing to lose.
Albanese should also call off unnecessary overseas trips. For example why does he need to attend a NATO summit? Australia isn’t a member of NATO or located in the North Atlantic. There is a perception within the electorate that Albo is always overseas instead of tending to domestic issues.