The monthly Resolve Strategic poll in the Age/Herald has the Coalition up four points on the primary vote to 34% without taking a bite out of Labor’s 35%, the balance coming from drops of one point for the Greens to 12%, two for One Nation to 5% and one for the United Australia Party to 1%. The pollster does not provide two-party preferred numbers but I get it to 54.6-45.4 to Labor – a seemingly solid result for Labor, but just shading the June poll as its weakest since the election, in line with the broader trend when Resolve’s skew to Labor relative to other pollsters is accounted for.
Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 36% and up two on disapproval to 48%, while Peter Dutton is respectively down one to 34% and up two to 42%. Preferred prime minister is little changed at 42-28 in Albanese’s favour, compared with 40-27 last month. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1605, and will presumably be followed over the next few days by a bi-monthly read of Victorian voting intention combining results from this poll and last month’s.
Also out yesterday was the weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s lead back to 51-49 after moving three points in their favour to 52.5-45 last week. The primary votes are Labor 32.5% (up half a point), Coalition 37.5% (up two-and-a-half), Greens 12.5% (down one) and One Nation 5% (steady). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1730.
Aaron newton @ #27 Tuesday, December 5th, 2023 – 7:38 am
Morning Aaron,
https://chat.openai.com/ for a free account
Asked, then pasted text
fix for grammar and spelling
lazgot it rong over albanese atending the funeral of pell he wisely desided not to go given pellscontravercial reputation so there will be the dunkley bi election withpeta merphys deatn
ChatGPT
“Laz got it wrong over Albanese attending the funeral of Pell. He wisely decided not to go, given Pell’s controversial reputation. So, there will be the Dunkley by-election with Peta Murphy’s death.”
Ven
I have backpacked around India many years ago and understand how big an area got flooded in Chennai. I agree that it is an example of a climate change induced disaster and fear more of the same for India and especially Bangladesh.
I have a fair bit of work to do yesterday and today so sorry for not commenting. I do share your concerns on climate change. I have not commented on it much lately because COP28 only confirms my view that it is now unlikely that the world will act to avoid >+2C warming. That will change the world in many bad ways.
I am pleased to see Australia join the COP28 declaration including agriculture, though that does not mean much. Like many engineers I spent a lot of unpaid time earlier this year writing submissions on a vehicle emissions strategy for Australia. Not sure if it was a waste of time, but so far it is still in Labor’s “too hard” basket.
Just read today’s Pearls & Irritations. Reminded me of Man Monis. A sterling example of coalition border protection.
I remember a fair bit about that, principally how the coalition protection media swung into action so soon, unearthing an anodyne reference written years before by a Labor pollie whose constituent he was. As I recall the Labor bloke was the only casualty of all this (apart from the people who Monis killed of course, & Monis himself). And didn’t the NSW government import a Pommy cop from the Met to absolve them of any failure. A couple of local cops got told they could do better, as well, I think.
The more things change….
C@tmomma @ #18 Tuesday, December 5th, 2023 – 6:53 am
Even if AUKUS were to deliver on its promises it is strategically short-sighted and hideously poor value for money.
It is likely to go down in history as one of the largest and stupidest blunders ever made by any Australian government.
But that’s what you get when you uncritically adopt the policies drafted by your political opponents just to get your own shiny bums onto the Treasury benches.
“Aren’t we going nuclear with subs? Or isn’t that the same ?”
Lars is right.
All pro-nuclear sub Labor supporters condemning nuclear power should give it a rest.
Labor is advancing the development of nuclear capability in Australia. It is shameful.
Ven @ #48 Tuesday, December 5th, 2023 – 8:51 am
They say James Comer is not very smart. 😐
”
Socratessays:
Tuesday, December 5, 2023 at 8:54 am
Ven
I have backpacked around India many years ago and understand how big an area got flooded in Chennai. I agree that it is an example of a climate change induced disaster and fear more of the same for India and especially Bangladesh.
I have a fair bit of work to do yesterday and today so sorry for not commenting. I do share your concerns on climate change. I have not commented on it much lately because COP28 only confirms my view that it is now unlikely that the world will act to avoid >+2C warming. That will change the world in many bad ways.
”
Socrates
There is no need to apologise
Chennai has an estimated population of 4.9 million, with an area that has grown from 176 square kilometers to 426 square kilometers after a 2011 expansion. The urban agglomeration, which includes the city and suburbs, has a population estimated at 9 million.
It is one 4 biggest cities of India.
We need to acknowledge that Climate change is not just impacting Western countries. It is impacting the whole world in different ways.
Couple of months ago there was huge flooding in China.
Phillipines is consistently subjected to Storms and Cyclones every year.
Pacific Islands are drowning.
Did you have chance to read the article I posted @7:48 am today. It is about how Ocean waves are getting bigger due to warming of oceans.
Is Mark Simkin still floating around the Liberal Party media pool?
On the Rozelle Interchange:
“ Re-routing some buses through the Rozelle interchange to reduce traffic snarls on Victoria Road in Sydney’s inner west is under serious consideration as emergency work begins to create extra lane space on the City West Link in the run-up to the Anzac Bridge. Now they are scrambling!”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/buses-set-to-be-re-routed-through-rozelle-interchange-to-reduce-traffic-jam-20231204-p5eor1.html
When you start building something differently less than one week after opening, fairly obviously, you built the wrong thing. In this case clearly there was a basic design error with the number of lanes merging onto the Anzac bridge. Of course, that implies that the whole project concept was wrong from the start.
So how do we spend $16 billion building something conceptually wrong? You start with governments wanting to be seen to “do something” about “busting congestion”.
The something doesn’t have to be effective but they do not want to pay for it, so it should be self funding. Presto, a toll road!
Now take any senior engineers with a background in capacity analysis out of the decision making loop at TfNSW and you are ready to roll.
Labor can’t crow too much about WestConnex though, because it was approved by the Liberals but the planning started back under Labor.
It might be wise indeed for Labor to think very carefully about who they select as their candidate to replace Peta Murphy in Dunkley at the imminent by-election.
Dunkley is a seat with a fairly low proportion of socio-linguistically diverse people. They really need a centrist to conservative in line with the electorate’s views, or they will get smashed by whoever the Coalition put up. Selecting Andrew Landeryou, the widower of the late Kim Kitching, might be a start. It would also be a show of unity in displaying public responsibility for her treatment in the past, whether it is warranted or not.
So talk of ditching Albo/caving in to Liberal policy demands is idiotic.
Yes, merely the opportunistic musings of those inclined to mischievously contribute to the destabilisation of the federal government.
Lol. Andrew Slandersyou. 😆
See what I mean about mischievous attempts to destabilise federal Labor? 🙄
”
Macarthursays:
Tuesday, December 5, 2023 at 7:25 am
“At the heart of modern physics is a gulf that scientists have spent more than a century trying to bridge. Quantum mechanics gives an apparently flawless description of the forces that dominate at the atomic scale. Albert Einstein’s theory of general relativity has never been proven wrong in its predictions of how gravity shapes cosmic events. But the two theories are fundamentally incompatible.
…..
”
MacArthur
There is quote attributed to Albert Einstein
“Two things are infinite. The Universe and Human Stupidity; And I am not sure about the Universe.”
Einstein was/ is a brilliant scientist. But he didn’t envisage the impending Climate change disaster.
C@t Everybody knows if Albo gets rolled next year – you’ll be the first to line up to take a swing against the fallen leader on PB.
C@tmomma
Is it the same concert that happened at Opera House, which was abandoned 40 minutes into the show because of impending severe storm?
No, Ven, it was the Limp Bizkit concert at the Hordern Pavilion last Wednesday night. Lots of pogoing and sweaty bodies, cheek by jowl. 😀
Lars Von Trier @ #65 Tuesday, December 5th, 2023 – 9:23 am
Piss off, Lars Von Trier, you total and complete slimeball. It’s only people like you that would enjoy dancing on the grave of a fallen Labor PM. Anyway, it’s not going to happen and your specious posturing now is not going to make it happen either.
”
A second Trump term will be far more autocratic than the first. He’s telling us, writes Jan-Werner Müller who says Trump is broadcasting his plans in advance – and, if elected, he’ll claim he has a mandate to accrue power and exact retribution.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/04/a-second-trump-term-will-be-far-more-autocratic-than-the-first-hes-telling-us
”
Have no doubt about that.
” Selecting Andrew Landeryou, the widower of the late Kim Kitching, might be a start. It would also be a show of unity in displaying public responsibility for her treatment in the past, whether it is warranted or not.”
An automatic trapdoor or ejector seat for posts of this kind are a PB essential requirement.
Landeryou’s description of Michael Williamson as a lion of the union movement would be a problem to start with.
Cat
“ Yes, merely the opportunistic musings of those inclined to mischievously contribute to the destabilisation of the federal government.”
For some I suspect that is their job.
On AUKUS we will have to agree to disagree. Labor could have fixed it on gaining office, but caved in to the military establishment to avoid a public debate.
Contrary to Rewi, I don’t see Labor as going along with nuclear power. Nuclear power doe not serve any long term interest for Australia, energy, employment or economy wise, so why do it? I see no evidence Labor will embrace nuclear power, just gain enough nuclear expertise to run the subs.
Even on the nuclear subs, I perceive Labor is stalling not pressing ahead. All the really big $ commitments on AUKUS are being pushed years down the road. Announcement of an east coast sub base location is the most recent example. Presumably, Labor does not want to sign any costly contracts until ITAR legislation is through the US Congress.
I think this is why Labor makes such a big deal of “AUKUS Pillar Two”. These are the easier to deliver measures announced to allow AUKUS to still be seen as useful in case supply of SSNs to Australia fails.
In the short term what USA really wanted was Australian bases for its SSNs, which starts next year. In return for hosting them, we have agreed to give USA billions of dollars, recognising the “benefit” of being dragged into a war with China(?)
Now THIS, as it relates to how the Liberal Party operates in government, is what we should be focused on today:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WN5i8fKnnOM
Florida attorney general is arguing in court for virtually unlimited book-banning authority
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/4/2209652/-Florida-attorney-general-is-arguing-in-court-for-virtually-unlimited-book-banning-authority?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
This has what America descended into.
Ven
The Hunter Biden witch-hunt is a joke.
As i posited from information gleaned from Denver Riggleman and Lev Parnas, it appears that this black ops by Rudy Guiliani and the GOP has a digital trail. Parnas is releasing a book with the receipts.
All this ongoing talk about trump and a second term.
It ain’t gonna happen.
Soc,
If AUKUS ITAR legislation wasn’t going to be going successfully going through the US Congress eventually, then all the other announcements and progress wouldn’t be happening. It’s as simple as that and something you seem unwilling to admit. There’s a shedload of progress being made wrt AUKUS, but it’s never enough, or quick enough, for you! You’re the AUKUS Eyore!
C@t unloads on Sokrates again.
Ven
Cyclones in India are a naturally occurring phenomenon. Flooding and droughts in India are also naturally occurring phenomena.
Lars Von Trier @ #74 Tuesday, December 5th, 2023 – 9:39 am
And you pipe up with yet another insipid and inane observation.
I think Socrates is capable of withstanding being called ‘Eyore’. Anyway, that is as nothing compared to your unloading on me as a ‘Backdoor Betty’ and a ‘lush’. All of which had zero basis in fact, but you knew that, Lars Von Trier. So, you jumping in to defend the honour of others is, frankly, risible under the circumstances.
Lars Von Triersays:
Tuesday, December 5, 2023 at 9:39 am
“C@t unloads on Sokrates again.”
All a bit phoobar of you Lars.
Give it a break.
goll @ #77 Tuesday, December 5th, 2023 – 9:44 am
It’s like an itch he/she can’t scratch. Sad.
Speaking of the Climate Change Denier, phoobar, who has clocked on to work for the day, his first assertion of the day doesn’t stand up to scrutiny:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/19/climate/himalayas-melting-water-source.html#:~:text=Glaciers%20in%20the%20region%20melted,fast%2C%E2%80%9D%20one%20researcher%20said.&text=Climate%20Forward%20There's%20an%20ongoing%20crisis%20%E2%80%94%20and%20tons%20of%20news.
Manmouth Melbourne – I think Labor hopes to retain Dunkley and selecting a scumbag like Landeryou would make a loss a dead cert.
C@t seems to forget that Socrates was initially one of AUKUS’s biggest supporters.
So he can’t be accused of simply some sort of vindication for a preconceived bias.
I think your target is me, C@t. Just saying.
Socrates
I don’t suggest Labor will reverse its position on nuclear power.
At least not for some time. It wouldn’t surprise me.
Where’s the waste from the nuclear engines going to be stored? I hope all these facilities are better protected from hacking than one of our AUKUS partners’ Sellafield, which surely should have had platinum standard protection.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/04/sellafield-nuclear-site-hacked-groups-russia-china
Alan Austin has complained to the ABC about the undue influence of the Murdoch media on Insiders. Quite a spit!
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/abc-complaint-over-insiders-collaboration-with-murdochs-news-corp,18142
C@t
The climate is changing. It has and always will change. Your quote has nothing to do with cyclones/hurricanes and flooding in India nor evidence that humans are driving any change in those.
In my vast experience of listening to radio ABC once for half an hour yesterday, David Littleproud got a long ‘interview’* making the case for the ACCC to enquire into ColesWorth’s price gauging, rather than have a Senate enquiry. There was no spokesperson from the Government. The tone, to these biased ears, was that the Opposition was setting the agenda, and all the Australia needed to do to realise Valhalla was to follow it. Simples.
* free reign with the male ‘journalist’ staying schtum till he finished each neverending speil, and then suggesting the points he was making made the Government look indecisive or similar, why thank you mr journalist for making the point for Mr Littleproud, and giving him time to catch his frothy breath, before the next recurring outburst about beef and watermelons.
Mind you, Littleproud made good points. But that’s not my point.
”
FUBARsays:
Tuesday, December 5, 2023 at 9:42 am
Ven
Cyclones in India are a naturally occurring phenomenon. Flooding and droughts in India are also naturally occurring phenomena.
”
Yeah right!
Flooding and droughts are naturally occurring phenomena all over the world.
That is not the point.
The point is frequency of those occurrences and intensity of those occurrences and the damage it is doing to infrastructure and human beings has increased dramatically atleast over the last decade through out the world especially in the last 5 years.
Albanese is is pretty underwhelming isn’t he? If he’s not careful, Labor will drift back into opposition under his watch.
Could be an exciting opportunity to see the Queen and Ardern in the Everest.
Ven
Do you have any peer reviewed academic papers that demonstrate that there is statistically significant trend that you claim exists?
Victoria @ #72 Tuesday, December 5th, 2023 – 9:35 am
I admire your optimism, but the polling indicates that this outcome is entirely plausible.
And the USUKA groupies might want to ponder what would happen to it (and to us!) if another Trump presidency does eventuate.
Ah Queensland, where it’s daylight at 0430 and dark at 1930, and the cows low contentedly and the curtains stay just like new.
Another Trump presidency would be just fine for the Dutton government that is elected a few months after Trump’s second inauguration.
Cat
Since you have compared me to a donkey you should be prepared for a stubborn opponent. Once again you go for personal criticisms on anyone who criticises Labor policy. Why? Part of your job? Do you blame it all on your upbringing? Do you attack all your friends? Or do you have none?
AUKUS is a deeply flawed policy that Labor’s attack dogs have been ordered to defend at all costs.
Lest I seem harsh in my criticisms of AUKUS, I know from experience that Defence acquisitions is a basket case. No government has been game to clean it out for years. That includes current Labor so far.
And have a read of the latest installment in the Hunter frigates saga. Talk about conflicts of interest! The revolving door between Defence and Defence suppliers has to be halted. We are becoming as bad as USA in many respects. There are rules against such behaviour, but they are not being enforced.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-05/previously-secret-report-raises-doubts-future-frigates-program/103184822
The problem is not only consultants. have a good day all.
FUBAR @ #84 Tuesday, December 5th, 2023 – 10:10 am
The climate has not changed changed this rapidly in tens of thousands of years. It is warming many times faster than at the end of an ice age. Humanity barely existed the last time this happened, and had much more time to adapt when it did.
Here … someone has done your research for you …
https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/climate-change-qa/how-fast-is-climate-changing
Experiment on your own planet if you must, but not on mine.
clem attlee @ #87 Tuesday, December 5th, 2023 – 10:12 am
Who would notice?
Rewi
“Where’s the waste from the nuclear engines going to be stored? I hope all these facilities are better protected from hacking than one of our AUKUS partners’ Sellafield, which surely should have had platinum standard protection.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/04/sellafield-nuclear-site-hacked-groups-russia-china
Like you I am opposed to civilian nuclear power. SSNs produce far less waste; the reactors are far smaller and more self-contained. Risk of radiation escape from an SSN is virtually zero if maintained to US, UK or French standards.
I worked on the SA Royal Commission into nuclear waste disposal. SA has many suitable sites, notably several former mines. The problem with disposing of waste from former nuclear subs has been failure to act due to apathy and cost, not inability to do so. The French and USA do this properly.
Landeryou is besties with Bill Shorten, so I wouldn’t rule him out.
though I think the Victorian ALP power balance has shifted?
FUBAR says:
Tuesday, December 5, 2023 at 10:14 am
Ven
Do you have any peer reviewed academic papers that demonstrate that there is statistically significant trend that you claim exists?
Yep. Do a google search using scholar
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096321000140
B.S. Fairman says:
Tuesday, December 5, 2023 at 9:56 am
Manmouth Melbourne – I think Labor hopes to retain Dunkley and selecting a scumbag like Landeryou would make a loss a dead cert.
Yes. And the connection between the late Senator Kitching, Landeryou was her husband, and her supporter Bill Shorten should indicate the nature of the undermining of Labor philosophy by Shorten. We know there was much disagreement between Labor people whether she should be on the Federal Senate ticket in a winnable position for the May 2022 Federal election. Just before she died.
And Shorten suggested the ‘stress’ she was under because of this led to her death. Which was taken up eagerly by the Murdoch media and their supporters who slammed Labor Senators Keneally, Gallagher and Wong as the ‘mean girls’ for making Kitching’s life so difficult in parliament.
Which they didn’t, discussing political ideas is part of the life of a MP.
Of course Kitching was involved in the Victorian HSU, which has long been a factional play thing for the Victorian Labor Right and had been outed for certain scandals.
Fortunately it didn’t affect the election outcome. Shorten’s loyalty was to his favourite, Kitching, and not to the Labor Party.
Australian Financial Review
https://www.afr.com › … › Economy
HSU past will haunt Kimberley Kitching
17 Oct 2016 — Mr Shorten’s decision to back Ms Kitching (pictured) to replace Stephen Conroy has shocked Labor MPs on the Left and Right.