The Australian reports the latest Newspoll offers further evidence of an end to Labor’s period of federal polling dominance, recording a dead heat on two-party preferred, in from 52-48 in Labor’s favour three weeks ago. Labor has slumped by four points on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition up a point to 38%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation steady on 6%. Movements on leaders’ ratings are milder, with Anthony Albanese actually recording a marginal improvement in his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister, from 46-36 to 46-35. Albanese is down two on approval to 40% and up one on disapproval to 53%, with Peter Dutton unchanged at 37% and 50%. The poll was presumably conducted from Monday to Friday, from a sample of 1216.
Morning all. It is a bad poll, as expected. IMO two things are driving it, the cost of living/interest rates, and Labor’s timidity and glacially slow pace of change. The latter makes Labor look weak. I think Labor is losing votes to left and right now.
I don’t agree that Labor should suddenly shift left or right; those demands reflect the preferences of the poster. But stalled action followed by panicked responses as in the past fortnight look bad.
Even on these numbers, Labor is zero chance of losing power, thanks to the Teal seats remaining solid (Liberals and Greens gained +1 while Labor lost -4). But minority government is the destination of Labor’s current course.
Labor needs a reset. Labor ministers feeling too tired should retire. Cabinet should be reshuffled to. Get Labor’s best performers on the front bench.
A lot of the economic forces are due to world factors beyond Labor’s control. The other factors within control should be acted on.
Many areas where policy action has been kicked down the road (climate change, defence (shipbuilding!), vehicle emissions, infrastructure) need to be sped up. Nobody, left or right, is impressed by stalling.
I also think AUKUS is a millstone in its current form. Nobody in Adelaide is being fooled that a policy to start building something in ten years time is a jobs bonanza. Nobody in Australia thinks that being tied to US foreign policy now, in order to get some better submarines in 20 years time is a secure defence before then. Labor has made cuts in defence, and the people who have lost jobs know it.
Other things like not fixing whistleblower laws, not or reforming non performing departments, like the inexplicable delay on the Pezutto case, make no sense.
So Andy’s thesis hold on for the full term, ride the polls down to 47-53 and you’ll just win in 2025.
Crazy stuff – if rates are going up as looks likely, racing to an election in early March next year is smarter. They just need to find an excuse to go and refresh the mandate. It’s pretty obvious this government isnt going to be able to last a full term.
You’ve had people in their 50’s who’ve waited a decade to get into ministries – hard to reshuffle people like that out without trouble.Imagine the trouble they will be in if they wait out another 0.5-0.75% in interest rate increases. There is no agenda to implement as is obvious from the Post Voice quiet. All of these factors point to go early.
No one is going to vote out a government that’s not even done 2 years. That’ll give them till 2027.
Labor primary and 2pp lower than 2022 federal election in this opinion poll
Technically this is the honeymoon over
The good thing is the lib/nats would still not be able to form any kind of government
He’ll fit right in.
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/tony-abbott-joins-forces-with-ultra-right-hungarian-think-tank-20231126-p5emwb.html
The lib/nats and their propaganda media would have been praying for 40%+ lib/nats combined primary vote , in this window of political luck the lib/nats are currently in
With Lib/nats combined primary vote still being under 40% , under the current circumstances and still 17 months or so till the 2025 federal election ,
There does need to be improvement for Labor , to hold onto majority , i still think that will happen there still time
Part of the problem is the time it’s taking for the reports of all the reviews Labor commissioned when it was first elected to government to come back. But I agree that the government does look to be dithering a bit.
Thousands of Australians are being advised they have “on hold” tax debts – ranging from a few cents to thousands of dollars – that may be decades old and will be taken from future refunds.
The Australian Taxation Office letters are causing distress to recipients, who have told Guardian Australia that they are near impossible to contest given many alleged debts predate the five-year retention period most taxpayers are required to keep records.
The boilerplate ATO letters provide payment details for those wanting to clear the debt. It also advises that while it isn’t taking active steps to collect the debts, “the law requires us to use any tax refunds or credits you become entitled to, to pay off the debt, except in limited circumstances”.
They remain “legally payable”, according to the ATO.
An ATO spokesperson said the agency wrote to about 28,000 tax agents to provide them with a list of their clients who have an on-hold debt.
“We are now sending awareness letters directly to remind clients of the debts on hold and how to view their debts on ATO online,” the spokesperson said.
“Providing visibility of these amounts helps clients understand that these debts remain legally payable, even though the ATO isn’t currently taking active steps to recover them.”
The spokesperson said the agency had no legal discretion to write the amounts off and that the tax office must use any future refund to reclaim the outstanding amounts, no matter how small.
While some of the amounts owing are less than the cost of postage, others run into the thousands of dollars, according to letters viewed by Guardian Australia.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/27/distress-and-confusion-at-ato-letters-warning-of-on-hold-tax-debts-from-decades-ago
Pied Piper. @ #29 Sunday, November 26th, 2023 – 10:57 pm
The media’s idea of ‘Balance’? 🙂
Who would even want to join much less run for a party that behaves like this?
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/tony-abbott-joins-forces-with-ultra-right-hungarian-think-tank-20231126-p5emwb.html
Thousands of Australians are being advised they have “on hold” tax debts – ranging from a few cents to thousands of dollars – that may be decades old and will be taken from future refunds.
The Australian Taxation Office letters are causing distress to recipients, who have told Guardian Australia that they are near impossible to contest given many alleged debts predate the five-year retention period most taxpayers are required to keep records.
The boilerplate ATO letters provide payment details for those wanting to clear the debt. It also advises that while it isn’t taking active steps to collect the debts, “the law requires us to use any tax refunds or credits you become entitled to, to pay off the debt, except in limited circumstances”.
They remain “legally payable”, according to the ATO.
This is what I mean about Jim Chalmers. This decision would have had to come across his desk. He should have taken one look at it and gone, as a politician, ‘No, no no! No Robodebt 2.0 on my watch! Then announced that the Surplus would expunge the debts in the MYEFO. However, don’t do it again taxpayers.’ That’s what a smart politician would do. He’s not.
Predictions for 2024
Dutton leadership
There is still 6 months before the 2024 budget , after the budget Lib/nats combined averaging around 36% or lower
Dutton to be replaced as federal Liberal party leader from anywhere between October-November-December 2024
Confessions @ #56 Monday, November 27th, 2023 – 6:27 am
Yep. ‘Proper process’ be damned. Get the report, read the Executive Summary, give the rest of it to the department and advisers to read and highlight any interesting or important findings not covered in the Executive Summary, take a decision to Cabinet, get it ratified and then go out and sell it. It’s not rocket science! It’s politics. It’s also 2024 and that’s how politics is done by the other side. Sure they make mistakes (which Labor, like their handmaidens, comes along and cleans up in government), but they’re seen as ‘getting things done’. ‘Seen’ being the operative word. It’s Potemkin politics, but it pays political dividends.
Scott @ #62 Monday, November 27th, 2023 – 6:40 am
No, Scott, I don’t think you’re right. Dutton has gotten the Coalition to where they are today. They’ll be mightily chuffed with him about that. So they will keep him.
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, November 27, 2023 at 6:14 am
So Andy’s thesis hold on for the full term, ride the polls down to 47-53 and you’ll just win in 2025.
————————
Labor currently holds 78 seats
Lib/nats 56 seats
If Labor gets 2pp 53-47 they increase the majority
Lib/nats needs a combined primary of over 45% to get majority and over 40%(likely 42%) for minority
C@t:
Yes, agree about Chalmers. The ATO letter has Robodebt 2.0 energy.
Dave Sharma on RN Breakfast now.
Confessions @ #66 Monday, November 27th, 2023 – 6:48 am
Rule #1 in politics: Don’t poke the bear.
Rule #2: Don’t give your opposition an inch to turn the tables on you.
Dave Sharma “would prefer to have
office in western Sydney”.
He’s a man of the people, y’see.
The fakest of fakes!
“I’m not going to be an armchair critic like Penny Wong …”
— Sharma on Gaza
Remember the conference in London that Peter Dutton’s Liberal and CLP minions went to? It has reared its ugly head again in this commentary in the British Guardian, but it has Peter Dutton’s modus operandi here written all over it:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/24/tories-power-grabs-government-britain-voters
It seems that our compulsory Preferential Voting is the only thing holding back the tide here.
Scott, I might add to that….
Dutton is toast!
.
.
.
Toast I tells ya!
Oliver Sutton @ #69 Monday, November 27th, 2023 – 6:53 am
‘Sharma, Sharma, Sharma, Sharma, Sharma chameleon!’
Socrates says:
Monday, November 27, 2023 at 6:14 am
Morning all. It is a bad poll, as expected. IMO two things are driving it, the cost of living/interest rates, and Labor’s timidity and glacially slow pace of change. The latter makes Labor look weak. I think Labor is losing votes to left and right now.
I don’t agree that Labor should suddenly shift left or right; those demands reflect the preferences of the poster. But stalled action followed by panicked responses as in the past fortnight look bad.
Even on these numbers, Labor is zero chance of losing power, thanks to the Teal seats remaining solid (Liberals and Greens gained +1 while Labor lost -4). But minority government is the destination of Labor’s current course.
Labor needs a reset. Labor ministers feeling too tired should retire. Cabinet should be reshuffled to. Get Labor’s best performers on the front bench.
A lot of the economic forces are due to world factors beyond Labor’s control. The other factors within control should be acted on.
Many areas where policy action has been kicked down the road (climate change, defence (shipbuilding!), vehicle emissions, infrastructure) need to be sped up. Nobody, left or right, is impressed by stalling.
I also think AUKUS is a millstone in its current form. Nobody in Adelaide is being fooled that a policy to start building something in ten years time is a jobs bonanza. Nobody in Australia thinks that being tied to US foreign policy now, in order to get some better submarines in 20 years time is a secure defence before then. Labor has made cuts in defence, and the people who have lost jobs know it.
Other things like not fixing whistleblower laws, not or reforming non performing departments, like the inexplicable delay on the Pezutto case, make no sense.
_______________
You didn’t mention housing, which you raised recently (receiving flak from some quarters might I add). A big issue in Sydney where even rental supply is tight in Western Sydney – the battlefield where Federal elections can be won or lost.
It’ll be interesting to see the BludgerTrack 2025 update, i/c this underwhelming centrist, blue Libs lite fed gov.
The ground as is is the ground not as you’d like it to be.
Pick your location and time for battles, that you can’t avoid.
Take the hint from the VTP&E Referendum (the many not the few).
More focus on salient issues to voters rather than activists or lobbyists.
Find more minor parties/ independents to be on side (31% of the PV, on par with fed gov, if lower than opposition).
By all means go for reviews/ process but keep explaining what has been done and what is next in terms of outcomes, unglaciously, without timidity, and point out how the opposition (tax, boats, cuts) would be so much worse (https://x.com/zdaniel/status/1728579540392542414?s=57&t=P0ZbOl3g76J9YGQNVeAr-A).
Damn the torpedos?
Confessions says:
Monday, November 27, 2023 at 6:48 am
C@t:
Yes, agree about Chalmers. The ATO letter has Robodebt 2.0 energy.
___________
If Chalmers had view of this activity, then yes, it is politically stupid. But not as certain as C@t that the initiative to send out letters on past debts would have filtered up to a minister’s desk for a decision. The only new action is the letter. The debt is historical. That could have been decided on at SES level.
Parliamentary Services would prefer that Sharma just took over Payne’s electoral office. There is probably an existing lease that would be need to be sort out otherwise.
Lars @6.14am,
” It’s pretty obvious this government isnt going to be able to last a full term.”
“All of these factors point to go early.”
You need a holiday from PB Lars.
You’re dreaming !
Former Socceroo coach Terry Venables was saluted as an “innovative” and “charming” manager after the charismatic former England, Tottenham and Barcelona boss died aged 80 on Monday.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Labor’s primary vote has tumbled to below its 2022 election result for the first time with both major parties now neck and neck on a two-party-preferred basis as cost-of-living pressures escalate and the Albanese government faces a mounting list of political and policy crises, writes Simon Benson about the 50/50 Newspoll.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-voters-abandon-anthony-albanese-as-labors-fortunes-nosedive/news-story/75db97702fe93193b9fec4af9c421caa?amp=
As the clock ticks down to the 2025 election, there’s a growing chance Peter Dutton will better capture the nation’s mood than Anthony Albanese, opines George Brandis.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-worried-nation-needs-a-tough-cop-not-a-handsome-boy-20231124-p5emlh.html
The pain for Labor on immigration detention is not over – especially if the Coalition and Greens team up, writes Paul Karp wo says that, while their motivations are different, the opposition parties have the numbers to force an inquiry – and prolong the fallout from the high court decision.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/27/the-pain-for-labor-on-immigration-detention-is-not-over-especially-if-the-coalition-and-greens-team-up
The former head of a powerful business lobby has backed the Albanese government’s description of high inflation as a global and supply chain problem, despite Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock saying it’s now largely a homegrown issue. Sumeyya Ilanbey reports that former Business Council of Australia boss Jennifer Westacott has lauded the federal government’s “thoughtful remarks” last week, and said there needed to be a whole-of-government approach to driving inflation down.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/business-leader-westacott-backs-government-s-inflation-stance-20231124-p5emjx.html
High-priced homes do not create wealth, Alan Kohler says, they redistribute it. Now financial success is largely a function of geography, not accomplishment. He argues that Australian housing wealth is meaningless, destructive and fundamentally changing our society.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/27/australian-housing-wealth-is-meaningless-destructive-and-fundamentally-changing-our-society
And he exhorts Albanese and Chalmers to spend their first-term capital on housing. He says that to deal with housing affordability you need to start in 1999, when the problem began, and either turn back the clock to the pre-1999 inflation-adjustment regime for CGT or cut the discount to 25 per cent.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2023/11/27/housing-capital-albanese-chalmers
Labor is whistling past the graveyard as it seeks to tie a bow around the parliamentary year, writes Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/peter-dutton-can-t-live-with-him-can-t-live-without-him-20231126-p5emvt
Karen Maley writes about Chalmers getting caught between a strong economy and households in pain.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/chalmers-gets-caught-between-a-strong-economy-and-households-in-pain-20231126-p5emsw
According to Shane Wright, Treasurer Jim Chalmers will axe one of the few ways he can control a Reserve Bank governor while also preventing the RBA from directly lending to particular companies or industries as part of his overhaul of the institution. In what amounts to the ultimate surrender of possible government control of the bank governor, Chalmers will this week use sweeping new legislation to end the ability of a treasurer to override an RBA decision.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/chalmers-to-axe-his-power-to-override-rba-interest-rate-calls-20231126-p5emv7.html
The AFR says that the Albanese government will amend its ‘same job, same pay’ rules following business concerns of hidden liabilities that could distort companies’ market value. Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke will introduce amendments to the Closing Loopholes Bill tomorrow to stop labour hire workers getting paid out accrued leave at a host company’s higher rates on termination if they have worked at a number of hosts.
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/fears-of-drastic-market-distortions-trigger-more-ir-changes-20231126-p5emt2
West Australia’s council elections seem a strange place to pinpoint a warning about American radicalising political games infiltrating the Australian landscape. While it is strange, it is nonetheless important, explains Lucy Hamilton.
https://johnmenadue.com/deception-radicalised-groups-are-infiltrating-australian-democracy-in-your-town/
The federal government’s aged care taskforce is poised to recommend retirees receiving help at home contribute more than just the 2 per cent they now pay for the cost of services such as cleaning and gardening. John Kehoe reports that the government taskforce, chaired by Aged Care Minister Anika Wells, is finalising wide-ranging recommendations and is expected to report in December.
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/aged-care-taskforce-to-overhaul-at-home-cleaning-gardening-20231124-p5emns
Millions of high-risk Australians aren’t getting vaccinated. A policy reset could save lives, explains the Grattan Institute.
https://theconversation.com/millions-of-high-risk-australians-arent-getting-vaccinated-a-policy-reset-could-save-lives-217915
A US Congressional report argues that Australia’s acquisition of nuclear submarines would actually undercut deterrence of China by depleting the US submarine fleet. With the promise of nuclear submarines becoming ever distant, it may be time to reconsider other options, writes Alan J. Kuperman.
https://johnmenadue.com/aukus-submarine-revelations-compel-a-rethink/
There are indications that net migration has reached its highs and may begin to trend down, writes Abul Rizvi.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/albanese-government-will-hope-net-migration-has-peaked,18112
David Crowe and Mike Foley write that Australians will be promised a boost to gas supply in a Labor move to ease pressure on energy prices, setting up a test for the Coalition and the Greens to back the federal changes or be blamed for deepening the nation’s cost-of-living crisis. They say the federal government will reveal two energy deals to fix a looming gas shortage under an industry regime the Greens are seeking to block, raising the stakes in a Senate vote on Monday on the country’s reliance on fossil fuels.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-takes-on-greens-over-gas-with-deal-to-add-supply-lower-price-20231124-p5emo1.html
Tony Abbott’s freelance life after politics just keeps on getting better and better. He’s joined the board of Fox Corporation, was seen recently hanging out with Canadian lefty-baiting provocateur Jordan B. Peterson and continues as an adviser to the UK board of trade. And now, amid this already busy schedule, Abbott has joined hard right Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán-sponsored Danube Institute as a guest speaker and will contribute to the Hungarian Conservative magazine.
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/tony-abbott-joins-forces-with-ultra-right-hungarian-think-tank-20231126-p5emwb.html
Australian companies are shrinking or stagnating when they try to join the ranks of the nation’s biggest employers, spurring the federal government to spend $392 million over the next four years to help them commercialise ideas and generate more revenue. David Crowe explains a new report warns the government that the structure of Australian industry is blocking innovation by making it hard for companies to make the leap into big business, thinning the ranks of middle-sized businesses that would otherwise inject more competition into the economy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/industry-plan-offers-400-million-to-rescue-missing-middle-companies-20231126-p5emuf.html
Broede Carmody reports that Greg Mirabella has been beaten by former preacher in a Victorian Liberal Senate preselection battle. And so it continues!
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/mirabella-beaten-by-former-preacher-in-senate-preselection-battle-20231126-p5emu4.html
And Michael McGowan tells us that the moderate Dave Sharma has secured a shock preselection victory to enter the Senate after coming out on top of a hotly contested Liberal Party preselection race. Goodbye Zed!
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/dave-sharma-s-shock-preselection-win-secures-liberal-senate-spot-20231126-p5emus.html
In a win for compassion and commonsense, tomorrow NSW will become the final state in Australia to allow voluntary assisted dying, declares an SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-death-wishes-that-deserve-respect-and-compassion-20231126-p5emu6.html
Nigel Gladstone and Matt O’Sullivan tell us that investigators are circling the senior ranks of Sydney Metro, which is charged with delivering Australia’s largest public transport projects, following allegations of bullying, conflicts of interest, corruption and fraud. A trove of emails and other internal documents show that the agency is spending more than $50,000 for two private investigators on “fact-finding” missions into “some very senior people”.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/bullying-corruption-and-fraud-what-investigators-are-looking-into-at-sydney-metro-20231117-p5ekwm.html
The nation’s school science curriculum sets students up for failure against top-performing countries. And Victoria’s is even worse, complain Robyn Grace and Lucy Carroll,
https://www.smh.com.au/education/shockingly-poor-how-australia-s-science-curriculum-fails-students-20231122-p5elvz.html
Hooray! The Minns government hopes it can break the back of the state’s growing social housing waiting list by deploying cheaper, faster-to-build modular homes on excess government land across NSW. Today, the government will launch a taskforce and pilot scheme that will use prefabricated modular buildings to address social housing needs for the first time.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/faster-cheaper-trial-of-pre-fab-builds-to-solve-social-housing-crisis-20231126-p5emvf.html
The SMH editorial expresses concern that the workplace is a hunting ground for child sexual abusers.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-workplace-is-a-hunting-ground-for-child-sexual-abusers-20231124-p5emq8.html
Rob Harris reports that populist bogeymen and women are jubilant about Geert Wilders’ stunning election victory in the Netherlands, a reaction that has sent chills through Europe’s political mainstream.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/populists-elated-as-geert-wilders-hard-right-win-worries-europe-s-moderates-20231125-p5emqv.html
Geert Wilders’ win shows the far right is being normalised. Mainstream parties must act, urges Stijn van Kessel.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/26/far-right-normalised-mainstream-parties-geert-wilders-dutch
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Joe Benke
Fiona Katauskas
A Glen Le Lievre gif
https://twitter.com/i/status/1728533187180294390
Megan Herbert
Peter Broelman
Leak
From the US
Labor’s primary dropped by 4, but only just over half transferred from left to right.
Scott’s right, the Coalition need a 4 in front of their primary to have a chance of governing in a meaningful fashion.
Dutton still has a lot of work to do.
L’arse:
“ So Andy’s thesis hold on for the full term, ride the polls down to 47-53 and you’ll just win in 2025.
Crazy stuff”
___
The last three long term governments had serious poll declines in either their first or second terms, but held their nerve to win at the post at the following election. So there is that.
History may not repeat, but if it provides any form guide, the government holding its nerve, going the distance and winning at the last seems to have a strong track record of success.
Whilst the hope of interest rate relief in early 2024 seems to have abated, globally the trend is dowagers, and ultimately our happy harp seal clubbing monetarists will have to relent- most likely in the second half of next year.
There is a general consensus amongst non monetarist economists that more targeted heavy lifting needs to be done in fiscal policy.
Regardless of the distaste many folk have for S3 my view is that politically we are stuck with them. That doesn’t mean that at next May’s budget the government cant wield the axe at a bunch of tax concessions that presently favour the cash up boomers that are causing the reserve bank conniptions. In my view any extra spends – beyond S3 which the government is stuck with – should be cost of living relief to the lower income deciles and offset but tax concession cuts that target well off boomer retirees and the upper income deciles. This will be a nasty process political, with heaps of screaming by the LNP and Murdoch media, but the dividends will be there when it matters – in 2025 when the government can have a late cornucopia budget before rushing to the polls.
Well, these numbers are depressing.
The next election will be fought on the hip pocket nerve. Not climate. Not women’s issues. Not corruption.
Those slavering for a multi-party left government and who are seeking to damage Labor on that basis might just consider that most of the newer governments that involve multi-party government are right wing governments, with the radical right tugging the window off to the cray cray edge.
But then risk management has never been a forte of either the far left or the far right.
“If Chalmers had view of this activity, then yes, it is politically stupid. But not as certain as C@t that the initiative to send out letters on past debts would have filtered up to a minister’s desk for a decision. The only new action is the letter. The debt is historical. That could have been decided on at SES level.”
It’s transparent, not something anyone has become familiar with during the “corruption years”.
Labor and Albanese promised to be honest, open and transparent. They promised to go the full term and have protocol in place to not readily change leaders.
Most of the media parasites and their hosts have had a grand old time “painting on the lipstick” to promote the probably most under qualified politician to desire a prime ministership (ever) by “dreamin” that Dutton will ever be a suitable PM.
There is a long way to go before the next election.
What Australia doesn’t need is another “thug” masquerading as a leader.
The exposure of the previous LNP governments will be the LNP’s undoing.
There exists just too many unopened Christmas presents from previous years, even for a thirty something percent of voters too unwilling to condemn the indiscretions left over from Howard, Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison.
The Teals, Greens and the independents will present a far superior alternative to promoting Dutton beyond his present position as a leftover leader.
The polls are disappointing and so were the Voice polls nearing the count.
Surely no-one in their right mind could be thinking that a Dutton-led Coalition would be a better bet than the present government?
Griff @ #76 Monday, November 27th, 2023 – 7:26 am
It has the vibe yes, but remember Robo debt was very largely fictitious debt levelled at the weakest. This appears to be valid but long outstanding. Still, it gives Chalmers the opportunity to ‘good cop’ it.
@boer:
“ The next election will be fought on the hip pocket nerve. Not climate. Not women’s issues. Not corruption.
Those slavering for a multi-party left government and who are seeking to damage Labor on that basis might just consider that most of the newer governments that involve multi-party government are right wing governments, with the radical right tugging the window off to the cray cray edge.
But then risk management has never been a forte of either the far left or the far right.”
_______
Spot on.
Yesterday I couldn’t be stuffed in providing particulars regarding the smug face juice media video, but if i could have been bothered you have just neatly summarised at least half of what my pints would have been: the other half relates to the fact that ‘Lib-lab: same same’ is risible bullshit – no credit is given to labor where it due, and no understanding is involved in just how hard – detailed and painstakingly slow usually – it’s is to shift the Overton window in the country.
I think the ME is a significant factor. It is a major destabiliser, world wide and locally, with civil disruption extending down here. People in head scarves vs others. The HC decision on top of this further exaggerates differences and tensions, aided and abetted by the goon squad. The ME was a major factor in seeing Sharma get the gig. Ley said as much. His wife is Jewish is my understanding, and thence the children.
Troubles times favour blunt authoritarianism. That’s why their modus operandi is to cause trouble. See Abbott. What a bad apple he is, the worms on full display now.
Where’s Ed Husic?
The other, the biggest, trouble maker will be/ is climate change. It will hit the hip pocket, badly, and cause major migrations of the poor and dispossessed. The irony that the blunt authoritarians who did least to prevent it and most to promote it might well be those called on the govern the world through it is terrifying.
Some good news – VAD comes into effect today in NSW.
Was Hawke or Howard ever -13 on personal popularity like Albo?
I understand the idea of a mid term polling slump but the leader has to have a reserve of personal popularity to reverse the govt polling slump.
It’s probably ptsd for Labor to have to contemplate this.
Housing and Cost of Living – two related issued. Both of which are extremely difficult to solve without pain and extremely painful to ignore. And this will cause immense pain for the government as others can suggest solutions that look good but are not really going to solve the underlying problem.
For example, A rental freeze as suggested by the Greens will cause short term relief but in the longer term result in fewer dwellings being constructed to be used for rental because no investor is going to put money into something if they can’t make a decent return. This will result in a even greater shortage of rental properties. So that is not the easy fix the Greens say it will be.
The cause of the Housing shortage is actually a shortage of dwellings. So Australia needs to either build a lot more houses and apartments or the population needs to decrease in relative terms.
I suggest the easiest thing that the government can do is to cut immigration (Or at least make it part of the criteria that migrants will live in existing households… so partner visas could continue for example). But that will cause other issues (skills shortages etc).
Lars: ‘Was Hawke or Howard ever -13 on personal popularity like Albo?’
Indeed …
‘After a failed attempt as opposition leader to topple Bob Hawke’s Labor government in the 1987 election, Howard’s popularity dipped so low that the now-defunct Bulletin magazine ran a cover picture of him tagged: “Mr 18 per cent. Why on earth does this man bother?”’
https://howardlibrary.unsw.edu.au/howard-man
#weatheronPB
Pale sky faded blue,
lasting heat raises its arms.
The warning given.
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, November 27, 2023 at 8:34 am
Was Hawke or Howard ever -13 on personal popularity like Albo?
I understand the idea of a mid term polling slump but the leader has to have a reserve of personal popularity to reverse the govt polling slump.
It’s probably ptsd for Labor to have to contemplate this.
———————
if you want to talk about leaders rating
This must be devastating to you Lars Von Trier
Albanese 46
Dutton 35 (-1) somehow lost a point , despite the political luck
C@tmomma @ #63 Monday, November 27th, 2023 – 6:45 am
Yep, I agree C@t, that’s been my take for at least 6 months, PD will take the Libs to the next federal election. To repeat what I’ve been saying, he needed to keep the party together, check, win the referendum, check, hold Labor to S3, which is looking more and more likely.
Public housing! Good on Minns for taking it on. He needs something to start to define himself. I remember the days of post war “housing commission” houses. They were around Ryde (very recognisable design, brick and tile, small front porch up three steps with a couple of vertical timber supports) where one of my school friends lived. He was the mate I’d go with on Friday nights to Tommy’s Two Up in the scout hall on the other side of De Burghs bridge, still timber.
To this day you can see some of those Housing Commission style houses on the outskirts of Moss Vale.
C@tmomma @ #71 Monday, November 27th, 2023 – 6:58 am
Peter Dutton has been heading off to these right win conferences and training sessions now for a number of years. He imports the ideas quite well, in fact I’d say he’s a pretty good student. It helps that many of these ideas can be built upon the tough cop persona he sees himself as, some of the communication techniques are straight out of the Qld police force manual of coercive communication for manipulating perps 101.