Newspoll quarterly breakdowns (open thread)

Seven weeks’ aggregation of polling points to Victoria and Western Australia as areas of relative weakness for federal Labor.

The Australian has published aggregated Newspoll breakdowns from polling conducted from August 28 to October 12, encompassing the four polls conducted since Pyxis Polling took over. The overall sample is 6378, having been boosted by 2368 in the pre-referendum poll (which recorded 57% for no and 37% for yes, converting to a bang-on-accurate 60.6-39.4 after exclusion of the uncommitted).

Keeping in mind that the previous set of results, from February 1 to April 3, were conducted by a different agency, the results show Labor’s two-party lead up slightly in New South Wales (from 55-45 to 56-44) and South Australia (from 56-44 to 57-43), but down solidly in Victoria (from 58-42 to 54-46) and Western Australia (57-43 to 53-47). The Coalition is credited with a 52-48 lead in Queensland after a 50-50 result last time, and we are given the rare treat of numbers for Tasmania, where Labor leads 57-43. This suggests swings to Labor of about 4.5% in New South Wales, 2% in Queensland, 3% in South Australia and 2.5% in Tasmania, and to the Coalition of 1% in Victoria and 2% in Western Australia.

The age breakdowns do not repeat a Labor blowout last time among the 18-to-34 cohort, which has progressed over the term’s three Newspoll breakdowns from 65-35 to 69-31 to 64-35. A five-point Coalition gain on the primary vote to 26% means they do not again finish behind the Greens, who are up a point to 25%, with Labor down six to 37%. The results among the older cohorts are essentially unchanged.

Further results suggest the opening of a substantial new gender gap, or of distinctive house effects between the two polling outfits. Where last time Labor was credited with a slightly bigger lead among men (55-45) than women (54-46), its advantage is now out to 56-44 among women and in to 51-49 among men. Income breakdowns now conform with the traditional pattern, with a 57-43 Labor lead among households on annual incomes of up to $50,000 progressively receding to 50-50 among those on $150,000 or more. The previous breakdowns had Labor strongest in the two middle-income cohorts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

967 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns (open thread)”

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  1. Just looking at some of the other petitions floating around on that site right now. And, oh boy, what a bowl of mixed nuts it is.

  2. Will NO voters review and wonder about their decision.

    In good faith, those with no up close knowledge relied on info given by each campaign. Price repeatedly said those on the ground in remote communities were going to vote no because it would not help. We now find those in the community voted overwhelmingly yes. Feel
    deceived or deliberately lied to?

    Today Senator Cash says the referendum had been diverted away from anything to do with the proposal. Instead it was switched to performance of Albanese and cost of living. What disrespect by Cash and friends to not address what was seen as a monumental question by FN people, instead turning it into a short term political point scoring exercise.

    Nothing yet from Barnaby. Allegedly asked at a polling point – can our freehold land be taken from us? No clear statement, just waffly reply along the lines of – you never know.

    Dutton is a flaky leader. Says things with conviction and then does the exact opposite as the wind changes

    Comments about the future of referendums depending on bipartisanship maybe so. But when one party changes it’s position part way through, they should be seen as deliberately undermining this part of our Democracy.

  3. Pratt is a respected businessman

    That claim seems debatable, at best. At least judging from what’s come out about him in relation to Trump (and Rudy), and splashing his money around to curry favor with them both.

    Comes across as just another rich jerkass who’s inexplicably decided he’d rather use his wealth for politics and influence than just buy an island somewhere and party with daily orgies until dying peacefully of old age. Many of them do that. No idea why.

    Hugh Hefner was a better model of a respected businessman.

  4. @Rex: “I have a rule. When out of Melbourne metro, only drink bottled water.”

    Oh, so you’re one of the precious souls that causes us to have billions of unnecessary plastic bottles floating around (literally) for something that comes free and drinkable out of the tap in this country. Some environmentalist you are.

    I have no idea how people got themselves scammed into paying for bottled water in Australia. Fill up some bottles from the tap if you need to take water some place with you. Some sealed bottled water for emergency situations (especially in flood/fire zones) is one thing, but that’s not why most people are getting it.

  5. By all accounts Anthony Pratt has been very successful at running the company his father built, but it’s so much easier to do that when your father already built the company and made the first billion and you got to inherit the position, the company, the contacts and the cash (see also Gina Rinehart).

    The revelations in the recordings are going to be uncomfortable, including the one about him donating to the Yes campaign apparently to try and get an in with Albanese – hopefully there has been no time for any access to come about as a quid pro quo for that.

    It’s quite funny that he thinks Trump is brilliant for getting henchmen to do his dirty work instead of doing it himself and that not many people would think of that. It’s not exactly a new idea….

  6. Been interesting watching the change in public opinion on the Hobart AFL stadium since the release of the alternative view, a study in human behaviour.

    I trundled over the No Stadium campaign Facebook page to see what they were saying and there was grudging acceptance by a goodly few.

    The selling of it is still going on in the Mercury by Coleman and Lennon: https://archive.md/O3HRj

    Over on the Yes Stadium Facebook page there is of course denial of any economic realties. A good article by the Tasmanian Times on new stadiums and economics. I want to launch a new economic concept called Potato Cake Displacement Theory. The money you spend on meat pies at the footy is money you cant spend on a potato cake down the road at the local takeaway shop.

    https://tasmaniantimes.com/2023/10/new-stadiums-are-not-an-economic-boon-analysts-concur/

  7. Just slightly more wild than the Adelaide Hills.

    Nice. How about Kanangra Walls? Spent some time wandering around there and over and along to the cowmung

    Mind you, Alligator Gorge in the Southern Flinders is nice and not much further from Adelaide CBD than Kanangra Walls are from Sydney. And there are some interesting parts of the Adelaide Hills only 20min from the Adelaide CBD.

  8. At 0920 Meha Baba mentioned a long trip from Perth Airport to Fremantle. Did you go by Taxi?

    Years ago I did regular trips by air to various parts of WA and always used the same taxi driver. On one occasion he told me about a customer he took from the city to the airport the previous day, a trip of about 20 minutes in those days. The bloke was shocked that it was so quick.

    It was his first visit to WA and knew nothing about it and he said so to the very friendly taxi driver whose cab he entered for the trip from the airport to his CBD hotel, a trip that took one and a half hours and crossed three rivers. (Airport to norther suburbs, over the Swan River at the Narrows, over the Canning River at Como, back over the Swan on the outskirts of Fremantle, and to Perth CBD on the Stirling Highway)

  9. Arky:

    I have no idea how people got themselves scammed into paying for bottled water in Australia. Fill up some bottles from the tap if you need to take water some place with you. Some sealed bottled water for emergency situations (especially in flood/fire zones) is one thing, but that’s not why most people are getting it.

    +1

    In 99% of circumstances, there’s no reason to be drinking bottled water in Australia. If it tastes a bit weird, just harden up and deal with it. Will probably be good for your immune system.

  10. nath: “Did you watch the linked video? If not don’t worry about it. Was just a joke.”

    I was out and about. I’ve watched it now. I get your joke.

    I watched some of the Sopranos when it first came out, but soon stopped because found it all a bit too nasty. I seem to lack that gene that any Americans have that makes them see something endearing about vicious criminals who wave their arms around a lot while talking and yearn for Mama’s spaghetti and meatballs.

    I much prefer shows in which criminals get caught and then are put away for 25 to life. I grew up watching the FBI with Effram Zimbalist jnr in black and white on the ABC. The show always announced over the final credits that the villain of the week had been found guilty and “was sentenced to 15 (or whatever) years in a Federal penitentiary.” I absolutely loved it. The current Dick Wolf show entitled FBI ain’t half bad either.

  11. Wat at 1134, yes I am well aware of how the petition will be received, but hopefully enough will sign to provide further evidense that this is not a “christian country”, and the bloke we saw earlier encouraging christian loons to join the LNP is wasting his breath.

  12. Asha @ #111 Monday, October 23rd, 2023 – 12:30 pm

    Arky:

    I have no idea how people got themselves scammed into paying for bottled water in Australia. Fill up some bottles from the tap if you need to take water some place with you. Some sealed bottled water for emergency situations (especially in flood/fire zones) is one thing, but that’s not why most people are getting it.

    +1

    Well it doesnt help that city and town planners are very deliberately removed huge swathes of drink fountains from shopping areas i the name of ‘public health’. Go into a Westfields and try to find regular drink fountains.

    It’s only since we had our twins that we’ve found that baby change rooms have taps, otherwise you are often required to fill up bottles from public toilets.

  13. New court documents reviewed by the New York Times reveal Donald Trump’s Australian pal, Anthony Pratt, told a lot of people about life at Mar-a-Lago post-presidency. Among the things he said, involved trashing Trump behind his back. Pratt, the Australian billionaire that Trump revealed classified information to, told around 45 people about the classified info as well as a number of things about his presidential pal.
    Not only did Trump tell his wife, Melania, to strut around the property in a bikini, but Pratt paid Trump tens of thousands of overages for ticket prices for events at the country club.
    “Another witness told prosecutors about hearing uncorroborated reports that Mr. Pratt spent $1 million for tickets to a Mar-a-Lago New Year’s Eve gala — voluntarily paying the club a huge markup for tickets that actually cost $50,000 or less, according to two people with knowledge of the previously unreported testimony,” said the report. It’s unclear if Trump gave Pratt the classified intelligence before or after he voluntarily paid the club a huge markup for tickets.
    The report explained that the ongoing investigation added to the barrage of information about the ways Trump entwined his personal business with the White House. After being elected to the presidency, Trump doubled the cost of a Mar-a-Lago membership to $200,000. A flood of individuals joined the club, including international people.
    Unlike “most” who were paying for influence at Mar-a-Lago, Pratt “played the game better,” said the report. “Mr. Pratt used his money and flattery to get on Mr. Trump’s radar: He lavished praise on him in public appearances, bought newspaper ads that hyped Mr. Trump as a job creator and became a member of Mar-a-Lago.”Behind Trump’s back, he was trashing the president. “60 Minutes Australia” obtained a “covert recording” that revealed Pratt claiming Trump running his businesses “like the mafia.”

  14. Australian tap water is drinkable just about anywhere except some really remote communities. Stopping the epidemic of plastic water bottles would be a great benefit to environment and peoples pockets.

  15. Granny Anny: I went by self-drive car or taxi along the Leach Highway. I guess it probably only took me 30-40 mins on average, but the route was flat and the suburbs were bland and interminable: the closest thing I’ve seen in Australia to the tedi0us endless suburbia of many cities of the US.

  16. Team Katich @ #110 Monday, October 23rd, 2023 – 12:09 pm

    Yabba, was that the Colo River?

    No. Its actually a stretch of the Nepean, looking south. If you turn around to the north instead, the Cumberland Plain and much of Western Sydney is in view. Just below there, Glenbrook Creek joins the Nepean, and you can walk all the way up Glenbrook Creek in stunning bush for many kilometres, with no idea of where you are.

    Re Kanangra Walls. One Easter, long ago, myself and some mates did a five day walk from Kanangra to Katoomba, via the Wild Dog Mountains. Exhausting, and definitely wild. I have camped and explored at Tuglow and Colong Caves.

  17. I think that Pratt’s worst sin is not that of ingratiation with the rich, fatuous & powerful but more a case being incapable of keeping his big mouth shut. Following these revelations, he’ll be shunned by this cohort & most likely pollies. And I think he can forget about that AC. He should though be thanked for bringing these matters – albeit inadvertenly – to the attention of public. Abbott will be really pissed that whereas he only got/gets $8k a month Keating got/gets $25k… .

  18. More bullshit from the Oz:

    Labor’s business blueprint will make Peter Dutton PM
    The Albanese government’s plan represents an unprecedented attack on the sort of people who dominate the less affluent electorates that voted No in the voice referendum.

  19. Is it correct to say Brisbane votes conservative if they elect Greens to federal parliament?

    Or if you are talking council is it more likely the conservatives are very mild?

  20. The Sopranos is, IMO, one of the greatest television shows ever made, and one of the few that equally succeeds as both drama and comedy, but it is also incredibly cynical and probably not for everyone as a result.

  21. There is a remnant iron bark forest, accessed via a bush track that starts 100M from my front door that wanders past aboriginal rock carvings in the middle of suburbia in Sydney’s inner west.

  22. teve davis says:
    Monday, October 23, 2023 at 1:11 pm
    More bullshit from the Oz:

    Labor’s business blueprint will make Peter Dutton PM
    The Albanese government’s plan represents an unprecedented attack on the sort of people who dominate the less affluent electorates that voted No in the voice referendum.

    __________________________________

    What? By giving them higher pay?

  23. A shock first-round win for the Peronist centre-left in Argentina, who seem to have won the most votes by 36% over 30% for Millei. The centre-right candidate, Bullrich, got 23%. It will go to a runoff and I believe Evil will still prevail. Bullrich voters need to favour Millei by a ratio of 14.5-9.5 (or 63% of the total) to get Evil over the line. Much will depend on whether she makes a statement to that effect.

  24. Junior public servants in the Department of Infrastructure and Transport’s graduate program allegedly compiled a “hotties list” which rated female colleagues’ attractiveness.
    During the infrastructure, transport and regional development budget estimates on Monday, senators grilled the department’s secretary, Jim Betts, about staffing issues including a retention rate far below other public service departments.
    Betts was asked about harassment incidents among staff. He expressed concerns about providing answers to questions that could have privacy implications for staff and requested to provide a briefing, separate to the public estimates hearing, to manage privacy concerns.
    However, Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie later asked Betts if the phrase “hotties list” meant anything to him. Betts replied “you’re going down this path, aren’t you, Senator, which I’ve warned you about”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/23/hotties-list-junior-public-servants-allegedly-ranked-female-colleagues-transport-department-senate-budget-estimates

  25. Brisbane has voted conservative on a local level for a long time, but the mayor and LNP dominated council have been very successful at projecting a harmless moderate image and have benefited from the fact that most people in urban areas just don’t give a shit about local government.

    Labor dominates Brisbane in the state parliament, while federally the seats are more-or-less split three ways between Labor, LNP, and the Greens right now. On balance, Brisbane votes more often for parties of the left than the right.

  26. Asha @ #131 Monday, October 23rd, 2023 – 1:23 pm

    Brisbane has voted conservative on a local level for a long time, but the mayor and LNP dominated council have been very successful at projecting a harmless moderate image and have benefited from the fact that most people in urban areas just don’t give a shit about local government.

    Labor dominates Brisbane in the state parliament, while federally the seats are more-or-less split three ways between Labor, LNP, and the Greens right now.

    The inexplicable popularity of Tom Tate, despite so much corruption-adjacent acts he is accused of, always befuddles me.

  27. Pratt presumably inherited the money taken off growers and packers who paid over the odds for their Vizy cardboard containers as a result of cartel behaviours.
    If so, Pratt has some of MY money.

  28. Tate is mayor of the Gold Coast, which might as well be on a different planet to Brisbane. Corruption from public officials in Goldie is a feature, not a bug.

  29. The Wire is probably one of the greatest television dramas ever made. It’s about how power is exercised in an organised crime group, in a police force, in local government, in a school system. It’s incredibly nuanced and compelling story-telling.

    I think The Wire is right up there with The Sopranos, Mad Men, and Breaking Bad as far as high quality television dramas are concerned.

  30. yabba @ #119 Monday, October 23rd, 2023 – 12:37 pm

    Team Katich @ #110 Monday, October 23rd, 2023 – 12:09 pm

    Yabba, was that the Colo River?

    No. Its actually a stretch of the Nepean, looking south. If you turn around to the north instead, the Cumberland Plain and much of Western Sydney is in view. Just below there, Glenbrook Creek joins the Nepean, and you can walk all the way up Glenbrook Creek in stunning bush for many kilometres, with no idea of where you are.

    Re Kanangra Walls. One Easter, long ago, myself and some mates did a five day walk from Kanangra to Katoomba, via the Wild Dog Mountains. Exhausting, and definitely wild. I have camped and explored at Tuglow and Colong Caves.

    I like the way they named the peaks on the way to Mount Cloudmaker. Mt High and Mighty. Mt Stormbreaker. Mt Roar. Mt Rumble. I did not like hiking up and down them with a big pack.

    I also did not like the way they installed parking meters at the carpark. I hope they are well and truly gone.

    When I hiked part of the Colo, I was told by a hiking chum that we werent far from a cave where they found a kayaker who got injured and later died of starvation waiting to be found. It is a very wild area.

    But it isnt dark. There is an accredited Dark Sky Place 100km from Adelaide.

  31. Holdenhillbilly

    I would have thought a far more obvious reason for resignations from the Federal Department of Transport in recent years was the obviously low morale.

    Federal transport has been a basket case since Abbott was PM. He was the first to cut ongoing projects started by prior governments, almost entirely eliminated policy development, and politicised project funding to a level only eclipsed by Scomo. Many senior PS staff in Federal transport could see they were wasting their time.

    So over the last decade we have spent a fair bit yet traffic congestion, GHG emissions, urban amenity and road safety are all getting worse.

  32. Nicholas:

    The Wire is excellent too, though not quite on the level of The Sopranos or Breaking Bad for me. I think the more melodramatic stylings of the latter are just a bit more to my tastes. I’ve only seen bits and pieces of Mad Man. I never thought much of it at the time, but I was a lot younger and dumber then – I suspect I would get more out of it if I watched it today.

    It took me a while to fully get into the Wire – I struggled with the first season, the second was better but still a bit of a slog at times, then it all just sort of clicked in place with Season 3 (still my favourite of the five, it’s close to flawless) and I was hooked until the end.

    I’d argue that the first few seasons of Oz (prison drama from the late 90s / early 00s, has a lot of crossover with The Wire in the creative team and cast members) are also among the greatest television ever made. It was one of HBO’s first shows and very much ahead of its time. It goes off the rails in the later seasons with some truly ridiculous storylines, but remains very watchable.

  33. I can understand why certain folk are happy to be photographed next to Pratt: instantly, they no longer look to be the ugliest person in the room.

    Both Trump and Scomo look like Clooney and Pitt in comparison in that photo …

  34. Pueo says:
    Monday, October 23, 2023 at 9:11 am
    Trump attempts to rewrite history again, surprising no one:

    Sidney Powell was one of millions and millions of people who thought, and in ever increasing numbers still think, correctly, that the 2020 Presidential Election was RIGGED & STOLLEN, AND OUR COUNTRY IS BEING ABSOLUTELY DESTROYED BECAUSE OF IT!!! MS. POWELL WAS NOT MY ATTORNEY, AND NEVER WAS. In fact, she would have been conflicted

    Trump can explain it to the warden

  35. For me The Sopranos is the GOAT. The reasons why meher didn’t like it was why I loved it. The world is cold and bleak and it reflected it rather than a saccharine view of America. As a character study of Tony Soprano it is unsurpassed. You start off liking the guy. At the end, he reveals himself as a true monster.

    The Wire is second. More sociological, Dickensian but utterly brilliant.

    Breaking Bad would be third. Almost a fantasy with a similar character study to the Sopranos.

  36. Nath:

    For me The Sopranos is the GOAT. The reasons why meher didn’t like it was why I loved it. The world is cold and bleak and it reflected it rather than a saccharine view of America. As a character study of Tony Soprano it is unsurpassed. You start off liking the guy. At the end, he reveals himself as a true monster.

    This.

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