The Australian has published aggregated Newspoll breakdowns from polling conducted from August 28 to October 12, encompassing the four polls conducted since Pyxis Polling took over. The overall sample is 6378, having been boosted by 2368 in the pre-referendum poll (which recorded 57% for no and 37% for yes, converting to a bang-on-accurate 60.6-39.4 after exclusion of the uncommitted).
Keeping in mind that the previous set of results, from February 1 to April 3, were conducted by a different agency, the results show Labor’s two-party lead up slightly in New South Wales (from 55-45 to 56-44) and South Australia (from 56-44 to 57-43), but down solidly in Victoria (from 58-42 to 54-46) and Western Australia (57-43 to 53-47). The Coalition is credited with a 52-48 lead in Queensland after a 50-50 result last time, and we are given the rare treat of numbers for Tasmania, where Labor leads 57-43. This suggests swings to Labor of about 4.5% in New South Wales, 2% in Queensland, 3% in South Australia and 2.5% in Tasmania, and to the Coalition of 1% in Victoria and 2% in Western Australia.
The age breakdowns do not repeat a Labor blowout last time among the 18-to-34 cohort, which has progressed over the term’s three Newspoll breakdowns from 65-35 to 69-31 to 64-35. A five-point Coalition gain on the primary vote to 26% means they do not again finish behind the Greens, who are up a point to 25%, with Labor down six to 37%. The results among the older cohorts are essentially unchanged.
Further results suggest the opening of a substantial new gender gap, or of distinctive house effects between the two polling outfits. Where last time Labor was credited with a slightly bigger lead among men (55-45) than women (54-46), its advantage is now out to 56-44 among women and in to 51-49 among men. Income breakdowns now conform with the traditional pattern, with a 57-43 Labor lead among households on annual incomes of up to $50,000 progressively receding to 50-50 among those on $150,000 or more. The previous breakdowns had Labor strongest in the two middle-income cohorts.
Nath
Nah we wore our MAGA caps…..
Victoria says:
Monday, October 23, 2023 at 9:52 am
Nath
Nah we wore our MAGA caps…..
_______
Just for survival reasons. I understand.
nath
People were actually quite nice to talk to. Admittedly they were tourists as well. Lol
meher baba at 8.39 am
You note that a sophomore effect “can be assessed by comparing the swing in a particular marginal seat with that across the state in general”, as the main criterion. The complication is distinguishing that effect from other factors that contributed much more strongly to the same discrepancy.
Re Lindsay, it is difficult to include in the list of sophomore effect seats in 1998 for two reasons. First, the 1996 by-election. That was unusual, and arguably when Jackie Kelly got the main bounce that might have occurred, without the by-election, in 1998. Second, the appalling Labor candidate must have had an effect, as shown by the relative performance of Mr Grim-Reaper in the by-election and in 1998, and affirmed by those who know something of how bad O’Toole was as a Labor candidate.
Note the complication: once the NSW Labor Right selected a dud candidate, it is hard to distinguish the effect of that in diminishing the swing to Labor from any presumed sophomore effect.
Everybody knows the Labor candidate in Robertson was a dud. Hence it is hard to include that one as a genuine sophomore effect seat. Parramatta can be included, though the effect there was less. Paterson can be included, though the Libs lost it, because the swing to Labor there was less than in Parramatta.
So, excluding Lindsay and Robertson but including Paterson, I think you have 5 seats out of 11. Nobody knows what might have happened in Lowe with Zammit as a candidate (he was a dud too). That makes it 5 out of 10 = 50%.
Eden-Monaro is currently my seat. On the primary criterion in 1998, a swing significantly less than the average statewide swing, it is excluded. The swing to Labor was 0.5% larger in Eden-Monaro.
There were only 6 candidates in E-M in 1998. The R-W nutter (CEC) got only 0.25%. The Democrats ran 4th at 4.6%, the Greens 5th at 3%. Their combined vote share was 7.7%, less than the 9.6% for Hanson. The problem for Labor was not getting enough Hanson preferences against the GST. That was also a problem for Labor in Lindsay, compounded by having a dud candidate there.
Nairn’s primary vote in 1998 was 43.25%. When he eventually lost in 2007 his primary vote was 43.55%. The big difference in 2007 was that, among 7 candidates, the three fringe RW candidates got only 2% combined. By then the Greens ran 3rd with 7.5% and a young progressive independent whom I now know got 2.3%.
Note that Kristy McBain’s margin in E-M is now slightly higher than A. Taylor in Hume. This was one factor in her getting a ministry. She is a very good local member, with strong appeal down the coast. Note that she won the 2020 by-election because Labor chose to put effort into a postal vote campaign.
Adelaide is a great city with lots to do, plenty of culture, and many of the negative issues that Melbourne and Sydney faces are much diminished there. The same can be said about Perth.
Hobart is a wonderful city for its size and has lovely people. You could spend years in Tasmania and not run out of activities.
Brisbane, for all its facade, remains a dull, underdeveloped backwater. I lived and worked there for two years and the attitudes of the people there were about 40 years behind the rest of the developed world. To put this in context, Brisbane is one of the few major cities where the conservative party still wins the popular vote. Even Dallas-Fort Worth, Salt Lake City and New Orleans which are in very conservative states still vote Democrat as far as their urban areas go.
South Australia is too hot and there is too little water for the population. It is basically a huge Gaza Strip. Probably close to a million people need to be relocated eventually.
Donald Trump’s classified information scandal just got a whole hell of a lot uglier for him – and Jack Smith is all over it
Donald Trump is already under criminal indictment and awaiting trial for stealing classified documents and improperly sharing them with unauthorized people. The only question at this point is whether he shared those documents with foreign nationals and/or foreign entities, and what his motivation was.
It was recently revealed that Trump improperly shared classified U.S. military information with Australian billionaire Anthony Pratt. It’s a given that if Special Counsel Jack Smith didn’t already know about this, he began digging deep into it right then and there to see what additional charges can be brought. In the meantime, the whole thing just got even uglier.
60 Minutes has obtained a recording of Pratt privately stating that dealing with Donald Trump as a businessman was like dealing with “the mafia.” So now we know that Trump was attempting to conduct personal business with this guy, even while improperly revealing classified information to him.
But the real story here is the New York Times revelation that Jack Smith and the DOJ have indeed interviewed Pratt as a witness against Trump, and that he could even end up testifying at Trump’s trial.
So now Jack Smith has a crucial cooperating witness lined up who can testify that Donald Trump improperly disclosed classified information while attempting to conduct personal business. Pratt is a respected businessman who isn’t accused of any wrongdoing, so he’d likely be seen as a highly credible witness by the jury. This just keeps getting uglier for Trump.
https://www.palmerreport.com/politics/donald-trumps-classified-information-scandal-just-got-a-whole-hell-of-a-lot-uglier-for-him-and-jack-smith-is-all-over-it/52760/
I’d say Adelaide might have the friendliest population of all the states.
Confessions
I’m glad you enjoyed your trip to Adelaide but can you stop talking about it.
We’re trying to keep it a secret.
Also, I wouldn’t want to deprive smug Sydneysiders of the obvious joy they derive from putting it down.
Q: South Australia is too hot and there is too little water for the population. It is basically a huge Gaza Strip.
Seriously, you are comparing a city declared the World Most Livable 3 years ago, to an area under siege and War and horrific violence….how insensitive to the poor people of Gaza.
As for water, after the floods last year, we have too much water- everything was full of water, overflowing and sodden for months! (I know that wont last).
Torchbearer
Nath is just shit stirring as usual
Friday was the 50th Anniversary of the “Saturday Night Massacre”. This was when Nixon sacked the Attorney General and the deputy Attorney General who both refused to sack the Special Prosecutor in the Watergate case. Nixon that used the Solicitor General to sack the Special Prosecutor.
This really did not impress Congress, who installed a new Special Prosecutor who continued the investigation, leading to Nixon’s downfall. It could be argued that this action was the greater cause of his downfall than the actual Watergate Break in the previous year.
What I never really realised was this all happened during the Crisis relating to Yom Kippur War that broke out two weeks before hand and the subsequent Oil Crisis. I assume that Nixon thought that these distractions would distract from his attempts to sabotage the investigation into Watergate.
It’s silly to compare cities. Each has its own dynamics at play.
For eg Adelaide population 1.2 million
Melbourne 5.2
Sydney 5.2
Difference in that alone dictates how the city functions
BK – Thanks for the Dawn Patrol. It’s been my main reason for lurking here. Really like the alternative views provided. Just sad that there are too many paywalls and the Age/SMH are blocking more articles from even private browsing.
Re the Newspoll breakdowns, would be interested to see the breakdown by education. Given the Voice results, it seems the more educated you are, the more open to progressive ideas you are. This is seen with the youth vote as youth these days are more educated than in the past. How can the progressives harness this ground swell of support to gain an overall majority? What is it that educated people see that those less educated don’t? IMHO I think it’s about critical literacy. If your education involves you reading, understanding and critiquing literature, then you develop some immunity to mis and dis information.
Re the Alan Kohler article in the New Daily, he provides a very assimilationist view of what’s best for indigenous Australians. If only we had some way of asking indigenous Australians what they actually want and need – sigh.
Re the commentary on Norway’s electric vehicle uptake, it can be replicated here but needs deliberate Govt intervention. Fat chance here! BTW it’s not just about cars – Norway has been spending big on cycling infrastructure – build it and they will ride!!
https://www.bicycling.com/news/a20016487/norway-will-spend-almost-1-billion-on-bike-infrastructure/
Nath is an aberration. I lived in Melbourne for years and most people there are very nice about Adelaide. I think it’s because we’re both progressive cities. Also, more people from Melbourne have actually visited Adelaide because of the close proximity and the AFL.
I loved living in Melbourne and my wife and I still visit regularly for holidays. We love the road trip.
Been to Sydney a couple of times. The city is beautiful but the people are rude and always in a hurry. You’d probably need to be pretty rich to live there. I’m sure there are people in the outer suburbs who never visit the city.
One of the problems with big cities is once people are pushed further and further out from the CBD, due to affordability, they tend to stay there. Once you’re living out in the suburbs, one city is exactly the same as another.
Rainman
My experience of Sydney is similiar, People are always in a hurry and you are lucky to make eye contact with anyone. Lol
Solarpunk
BK is a bonafide star!!
MelbourneMammoth @ #54 Monday, October 23rd, 2023 – 10:01 am
Food alone is a really good indicator of the difference between Hobart and Brisbane.
In Brisbane you could go to one of 70 different independently run cafes and order eggs benedict, like MacDonalds you can be confident it will be the same bland eggs on top of toast with some yellow sauce.
In Hobart you might struggle to find eggs benedict on the menu, but rest assured there is an amazing variety of actually interesting breakfasts to pick from.
It is odd how this kind of thing gently plays on your mental wellness over time, that and the lack of architectural differences in building across Brisbane was another one.
C@tmomma @ #4 Monday, October 23rd, 2023 – 5:23 am
That doesn’t make sense though. So one of the members of the Crazy Clown Caucus puts up a motion to vacate. All Democrats and whichever Republicans they teamed up with to install the non-crazy Speaker in the first place then vote against it. Motion defeated.
I could only see an immediate motion to vacate succeeding if the Democrats managed to get a non-crazy Speaker up by stealth. Like don’t talk to any Republicans about a compromise candidate, just read the room and if there’s a moderate GOP member who seems likely to catch 7-8 protest votes then vote as a bloc for that person. Then maybe you get an outraged, knee-jerk response where a motion to vacate is instantly successful.
But even in that case, who cares? It’s less boring than having no Speaker at all. Less risky than waiting for the GOP to coalesce around a Speaker from the crazy aisle. The Democrats will look smart for outplaying the Republicans. The GOP talking point about how Democrats are to blame for not propping up the Speaker will be dead and buried. If Republicans nuke the consensus Speaker, they own it and everything that flows from it.
Q: Difference in that alone dictates how the city functions
A city can be well designed, well supplied with transport etc no matter the size. Population is just one factor in a cities success.
Tokyo with 30million plus operates better than many cities with one million.
Rainman, I can relate to your comment about people living in outer suburbs not visiting Sydney. I live in a self contained village about 50Km from Perth. I could count the number of visits to the CBD in 20 years on the fingers of one hand. There are plenty of things to do and services to access without subjecting yourself to the hassles of getting there.
I visited Brisbane earlier in the week. There is lots of construction going on including the cross river link.
I daresay these projects will improve the city. I was very surprised though to observe how the train stations in the CBD were so run down. Reminded me of Melbourne town in the early eighties.
Re Adelaide water.
As I’ve told you all before, when young, I spent quite a long period of time living in the Indian city of Ahmedabad. The tap water there tasted like liquid mud.
My then partner (later first wife) was there with me for some of that time. Then, about ten years later, we were on a visit to Adelaide, where she had never previously been. In our hotel room, before I could warn her, she turned on the tap and drank some of the water.
She then told me that drinking the water meant that she finally understood what Proust was on about with the madeleine cake. Instantly, she had been transported back to Ahmedabad.
Rainman @ #64 Monday, October 23rd, 2023 – 10:40 am
So true
In Sydney, if you live in and around Blacktown, for instance (deep western suburbs), you can jump on a fast train to the Blue Mountains, and in under 30 minutes be deep in wilderness in the Blue Mountains National Park, via Glenbrook, where you can easily walk to Red Hand Cave, or view the tallest trees in NSW (Deane’s gums). Try that in any other capital city. (I have four like this on my bush block at Bucketty.)
Torchbearer
Sydney has the waterways that break up the flow of the city. This makes it somewhat hard to navigate, and is hard work,
Whereas Melbourne whilst lacking some of this lovely natural scenery, is gridded and very easy to navigate.
Doolittle is more projecting than analysing the sophomore effect: relaying mainly on subjective evaluations of the ‘quality’ of candidates rather than data. He seems particularly obsessed with labor running ‘strong postal campaigns’ when in truth most political campaigners with actual experience will tell you that postal vote campaigns – especially those run by labor are irrelevant because those voters who choose to vote by the this message are by definition actually thinking about voting when they make a request and hence much more likley to have already made up their minds about how they are going to cast their votes.
The 2020 E-M by-election – cited by Doolittle as having a strong labor postal vote campaign MAY (emphasis may) be different because this was run during the middle of a pandemic and hence there were a lot of folk more likely to want to avoid attending polling stations due to concerns over social distancing at the time.
Meher barber’s analysis is to be preferred, IMO.
Thanks AE: I don’t get a compliment from you too often.
meher baba says:
She then told me that drinking the water meant that she finally understood what Proust was on about with the madeleine cake. Instantly, she had been transported back to Ahmedabad.
_______
that sounds very gay.
Deanii pics, re Glenbrook
30 minutes from Blacktown, 15 from Penrith (Lindsay)
I live in Perth’s east. The scrub is no more than 5 minutes away. The CBD is 20 minutes by road or train. The coast is 30 minutes by road. This is east-west travel. To traverse the metro region from north to south is a different proposition. The total travel time, on a bad day, could be three hours. But this is not meaningful information. Very few people need to commute from Dawesville to Two Rocks. Perth is long , not wide and not high, stretching along the coast and around the rivers. It is built following the given topography, which is really very beautiful. What is really undesirable, however, has been the proliferation of very small lots scaled for single residences…250-350m blocks, with no gardens, but none of the advantages of either much lighter or much higher densities.
I think what we most lack in Perth is well-distributed high density and affordable housing….though housing is still far more accessible here than in the bigger cities.
Isn’t he forbidden from talking about co-defendants and witnesses? Ms. Powell is both.
All Ords down over half a percent again today and over 1 percent for the year. Overall the stock market is lower since Labor came to power. Great economic management Albo!
Yabba: for once I find myself in agreement with you.
Outer suburban Sydney is an underrated place to live. Lots of access to nature parks. And there are also a surprising number of colonial-era historic buildings scattered around western Sydney. Not to mention the charming Hawkesbury-Nepean. I have friends who live in Emu Plains on the very edge of the bush and have a great lifestyle.
Yabba
That’s a big tree!!
meher:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNYjS7xIbP0
A_E
Did you know Collins, or was his problem that he was outside the Right’s inner clique?
nath
Are you on the turps this morning?
I’m not surprised by income group movements because It’s The Economy Stupid as per usual and with hip pocket ruling over social policy concerns and pandemic anger effects fading, the more usual alignments are asserting themselves. The socially progressive rich will stay where they are with the Teals, however. It’s the middle income mortage belt Labor needs to be concerned about holding onto, politically.
‘Taylormade says:
Monday, October 23, 2023 at 8:53 am
Cronussays:
Monday, October 23, 2023 at 5:20 am
Thanks WB
Not really sure what to make of these new aggregated polling figures.’
————————-
Uh huh.
Ugly Dutton is on the nose.
Having lived extensively in both Brisbane and in Far North Queensland, I’ve never had any issue with the water. My housemates in Brissy installed one of those filtered water attachments onto the tap, and I literally couldn’t tell the difference. Mind you, they think I’m insane for not noticing, so maybe it’s just me.
meher baba says:
Monday, October 23, 2023 at 11:12 am
nath
Are you on the turps this morning?
____
Did you watch the linked video? If not don’t worry about it. Was just a joke.
Sorry for being a bit cynical, but given we (Australians) don’t have a say in the election of Trump, should we at least be grateful that it is Australian dodgy billionaires he has good relations with?
I don’t see the point in pouting about it, rather we should think outside the box to influence the US in our favour.
We were on exercise in South Australia in the 90s, my Tasmanian reserve battalion linking up with the full regiment. We were able to sell jerry cans of Tasmanian water the SA units.
meher baba @ #81 Monday, October 23rd, 2023 – 11:07 am
Yeah but what about global boiling, bushfires and insurance premiums …?
I have a rule. When out of Melbourne metro, only drink bottled water.
Here is a petition that some Bludgers might like to sign:
https://www.aph.gov.au/e-petitions/petition/EN5562
The house rules would be changed once a new speaker is elected – if the dem/republican group that supported the speaker decided to. It wouldnt be as easy for a motion to get noticed as it was for McCarthy.
Arky @ 11.14
Re income groups, mostly agree. However there is still a number of low income peeps that swallow the conspiracy kool aid and vote against their own best interests.
And re the mortgage belt, this is the group we need to educate that neoliberalism is actually bad for them!! Assuming they are time poor and not disagreeable, they ‘understand’ that low tax small government is whats best for them as this is the orthodoxy the media has been pushing for 40 years. How can we reach this group?
Regarding Adelaide water:
When I was young, sometimes you’d have to give up on the idea of a bath because you’d turn on the taps and the water would be brown.
It’s much better now but has a slight taste. I think that’s because of the chlorine they have to put in because NSW and Nath keep pissing in it.
When I first went to Melbourne, I went to a public fountain and nearly killed myself. Because I couldn’t taste the water I kept drinking until my stomach nearly exploded.
As far as natural beauty, Adelaide is unique. Because it’s stretched out along the coast it’s bounded on one side by beautiful beaches and on the other by the Adelaide hills.
Pretty much just 10 minutes either way.
Shit, I’m supposed to be keeping this a secret.
Watergate prosecutor unsure if fine can stop Trump from breaking gag order — but jail will
Former Watergate prosecutor and “Sisters in Law” co-host Jill Wine-Banks expects that the gag order against Donald Trump won’t be removed, but that it still will not stop him from breaking the gag order, and she isn’t certain what will.
“But the penalty is going to have to go from $5,000 to $15,000 to $500,000,” Wine-Banks said. “I don’t know what the amount is that would make him stop doing what he does.
She went on to say that if she was representing someone in court and his name was not Trump, the person would be jailed “a long time ago.”