For the sake of getting a new morning-after thread under way, a reiteration of the two sets of voting intention numbers that came through in the murk late last week:
• There was a bonus Newspoll result in The Australian less than a fortnight after the last, showing Labor’s lead out from 53-47 to 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 36% (up two), Coalition 35% (down one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 6% (up one). Anthony Albanese was up one on approval to 46% and steady on disapproval at 46%, while Peter Dutton was down two to 35% and up three to 53%. Albanese led 51-31 as preferred prime minister, out from 50-33. The poll was conducted October 4 to 12, overlapping the previous polling period from October 3 to 6, from an expanded sample of 2638.
• What looks to be the second instalment of a weekly polling series from YouGov (which I will incorporate into BludgerTrack when it gets a few more runs on the board) had Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 33% (steady), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation on 6%. Anthony Albanese’s net approval was steady at minus 3%, while Peter Dutton improved from minus 17% to minus 12%. Preferred prime minister was little changed, Albanese’s lead shifting from 50-33 to 50-34. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1519.
Jamaica is debating disassociating itself from the English Crown atm.
Ah MelbourneMammoth and their predictions. I remember their comments on the 2023 Aston by-election – it was the land of Howard battlers and Howard aspirationals and hold out for the postal votes.
Rakali @ #1101 Tuesday, October 17th, 2023 – 2:18 pm
Seems like an overraction.
More context would be ideal, but I’d wager the relevant edge-case is ‘people who were born biologically male and at some point sought/underwent gender reassignment to female while being sexually attracted to females’. Yeah?
Any subset of the “people who were born biologically male and at some point sought/underwent gender reassignment to female” cohort is indeed fairly hard done by in most societies.
I mean, it’s a tiny, tiny cohort. And the reassignment process so traumatic and imperfect that literally nobody is going to subject themselves to it without good cause. Yet some feel the need to mark International Lesbian Day by reinforcing to this cohort that they’ll never be accepted? They should be free to protest, imo, but it’s also no great loss if they can’t.
If your gender identity happens to match your biological sex, count yourself lucky, relax, and move on. People not in that position have things hard enough. Not being able to explicitly ostracize them is no great dystopian loss. Not in a country that already forbids, say, environmental protests and has thrown people in jail over it. There have to be better ways to celebrate Lesbian Day. 🙂
You don’t hear this type of straight up truth from Labor or the L/NP.
The Silver Bodgie @ #1099 Tuesday, October 17th, 2023 – 3:15 pm
This is a truly eye-opening poll.
Most Australians (62%) say they want the government to work with First Nations communities to help them find solutions to their problems, but only 38% of Australians think this should include Truth or Treaty, and only 35% think it should include Voice – a number even lower than the referendum outcome!
This means that Australians are comprehensively rejecting ALL the First Nation people’s preferred options, as expressed in the Uluru Statement.
I believe I am finally beginning to understand the expression “White Man’s Burden” 🙁
Well said, AR.
It was Morrison, a disfuntional executive & it’s time wot did it:
[‘The NSW Liberals’ election post-mortem has blamed former prime minister Scott Morrison, the “dysfunction” of the party’s state executive, and an “It’s time” factor for its loss at the March poll.
Seven months after the Liberals lost their last mainland stronghold when former premier Dominic Perrottet’s government was defeated by Labor’s Chris Minns, a review of the campaign has highlighted the Morrison government for damaging the party’s brand before the poll.
A review of the NSW Liberal Party’s election loss has blamed the Morrison government for damaging the party’s brand in the lead-up to the poll.
A review of the NSW Liberal Party’s election loss has blamed the Morrison government for damaging the party’s brand in the lead-up to the poll.
Led by former NSW premier Nick Greiner and former NSW MP Peta Seaton, the review also placed significant blame on the “dysfunction” of the party’s state executive, which was crippled by factional infighting.
Greiner and Seaton briefed MPs on their findings on Tuesday, telling the Liberal party room that the number one reason for the party’s loss was the “It’s time” factor after 12 years in power.’]
But damage to the party’s brand was a significant factor, they said, specifically citing the unpopularity of the Morrison government as a key influence in the loss.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-libs-blame-morrison-party-dysfunction-and-voter-fatigue-for-election-loss-20231017-p5ecwo.html
Jamaica is debating disassociating itself from the English Crown atm.
Don’t get any ideas Cat, Its too complicated for the average Australian voter
I believe I am finally beginning to understand the expression “White Man’s Burden”
No Player One get you facts right, Stop being racist to White Australians
All the Anglo WHITE seats in Sydney (apart from the Shire) voted YES and the Multicultural ones voted NO
STOP being racist to us white people
It was Morrison, a disfuntional executive & it’s time wot did it:
______________________
I think it is spelled G-L-A-D-Y-S and B-A-R-I-L-A-R-O…
Some would like to see a general middle eastern war involving Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, sundry Gulf States, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. (Why chuck in Yemen? Heshbollah and Iran have ties with, and support, the Houthis. Sundry Houthis have expressed the vision of pushing the jews into the sea.)
I assume that this is what Biden is trying to prevent and what Australia’s measured public tones are trying to prevent. Russia has a particular interest in the US being distracted by a ME conflagration.
Would China have a go at Taiwan, believing the situation is as ripe as might get.
High-profile gets yet another temporary reprieve from being named. At least the MSM (except Seven*) are keeping the story alive.
*Guardian article says “Numerous media companies, including Guardian Australia, ABC, Nine, News Corp publications and Network Ten, have opposed the man’s application to maintain his anonymity”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/17/high-profile-man-accused-of-toowoomba-rape-takes-fight-to-maintain-anonymity-to-supreme-court
ar: “More context would be ideal, but I’d wager the relevant edge-case is ‘people who were born biologically male and at some point sought/underwent gender reassignment to female while being sexually attracted to females’. Yeah?”
I’d wager that the case is being brought forward by males who identify as female but who have not had any gender reassignment treatment and who still have functioning equipment that they would like to insert into females, but would like to have that act to be defined as “lesbian sex.”
You can read more about this issue here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-57853385
Poor Cameron @ #1109 Tuesday, October 17th, 2023 – 4:25 pm
If the Burden fits …
Arky @ #1052 Tuesday, October 17th, 2023 – 1:02 pm
Arky,
I made my comment wrt the AHRC decision as I did because, again, the ends of the horseshoe have joined forces. Yes, the Moira Deemings, the Jacinta Prices and the Katherine Deves of this nation, plus the Conservative Christian organisations that lurk in the shadows and provide funding to them to run these cases, are behind this.
At any other time they wouldn’t touch a Lesbian with a barge pole, however, it’s a marriage of convenience in this case where you have, an historically antipathetic reaction to men from a certain subset of Lesbians, to the extent that they don’t even let men into their houses or their lives and would be happy if there was no such thing as a male gender, having joined forces with that other group who doesn’t like men, but only those males who wish to transition to become women, and hence to live their lives as such. Hey, even to become Lesbians maybe!
So, they joined forces. The radical subset Lesbians, who in a perversely conservative way for a marginalised section of society, are only interested in letting Lesbians born female into their world, so no transitioned males to females, or men generally; and the true Conservatives, radical fundamentalist Christians who want nothing more than to turn the clock back on all the Enlightened gains made by Western society.
Well, I was just gladdened to see that the AHRC was itself enlightened enough to see through this artifice to the substantive issue that was being attacked by the radical Lesbian group and the radical Christian group, and thus told them that they needed to respect ALL people in our society; that gender fluidity IS, indeed, a reality; and that they needed to get with the program.
Bravo! I say, again.
c@t: “Well, I was just gladdened to see that the AHRC was itself enlightened enough to see through this artifice to the substantive issue that was being attacked by the radical Lesbian group and the radical Christian group, and thus told them that they needed to respect ALL people in our society; that gender fluidity IS, indeed, a reality; and that they needed to get with the program.”
Read that article I’ve linked to above and then get back to me.
You know, I’d have no objection whatsoever to mystery man’s identity remaining hidden until he was found guilty… on the condition that every other person currently facing trial received the same treatment. With how common it is for the police to completely cock this stuff up, the vultures in the media can surely hold off on publishing their vigilante-bait until a verdict is in.
But when the average poor schmuck unable to afford fancy lawyers gets their name and details plastered all over the papers for far lesser charges (just look at those those daily “name and shame” lists so beloved by pathetics rags like the Courier Mail), I don’t see why this guy should get preferential treatment. Either every defendant gets anonymity or none do. Fame and wealth and friends in high places shouldn’t be an influencing factor.
Poor Cameron @ #1108 Tuesday, October 17th, 2023 – 4:20 pm
It even seems too complicated for Bludgers! 😆
Mr Toowoomba gets another reprieve? How long are his lawyers going to get away with pretending to be incompetent? How many times does a defence of “the dog ate my homework” work? If a poor person had a lawyer pleading incompetence, they would just lose their case. Two separate justice systems, one for the rich, one for the poor.
Watching last night’s ep of Q&A, Dee Madigan was very good on the panel, especially on the subject of campaigning.
Bandt is hurling Peace Studies 101 at the Middle East.
It should work.
I fully support Watermelon. I’m probably just as left wing as them.
In the first federal election I ever voted in I voted for the Communist Party in Port Adelaide. Me and 8,000 others. That was a long time ago. Since then, I’ve only voted Labor. I’ve been a long time member and, before retirement brought on by a stroke, was a Union rep for over a decade. I’ve also spent decades teaching and helping refugees from the most God forsaken places on this earth. My conscience is clear.
I’ve been diagnosed as high IQ but low EQ and am apt to get myself into trouble. Still, my conscience is clear.
I need to be careful because our moderator has insinuated
I am stupid and creepy and close to being blocked but still I support Watermelon.
meher baba @ #1116 Tuesday, October 17th, 2023 – 4:36 pm
My goodness, meher baba! Talk about drawing a looooooooooooooong bow! The AHRC case was about letting transitioned ‘women’ into Lesbian events. Nothing to do with, once there, these people raping them!
Get a grip, meher baba! This was a case about a bunch of Lesbians who want to exclude Trans Women who are Lesbians! Who do they think they are to tell people who identify as Lesbians that they can’t be a Lesbian!
From the article:
And this is the Lesbian who brought the case, this is her (warped) pov:
‘Sex-based rights’ Do the Lesbians not realise that they would be vilified too if those extremist Christian Conservatives could have their druthers?
And this is what I have been saying all along:
And not, I repeat NOT, men who put on a dress to get into a gathering of Lesbians so they can take one home to rape them!!! This was a case about Transitioned Women. They no longer have an appendage to do anything to them with!
C@tmomma
The radical subset Lesbians, who in a perversely conservative way for a marginalised section of society, are only interested in letting Lesbians born female into their world,
—————-
By lesbians “born female” you mean women! There are no other kinds of lesbians.
The fact that you insist that they must have male bodied people in their group is gross homophobia on your part. You are saying that same sex attracted people are not allowed to have same sex only events.
In your world, these women cannot choose otherwise. They must be required by law to accept males with ”identity” issues.
Rainman,
You can support Watermelon until the cows come home. However, you must respect our moderator’s decisions. As must Watermelon. No matter how strongly either of you feel about any issue the Mod has ruled on. There are plenty of other places you can go to talk about this issue passionately.
Not a problem! After all, per capita!
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1299975.shtml
#2.5+
Rakali,
There’s a difference between ‘born female’ and Women, in this day and age, and you, of all people here, should know that. But if you want to side with Moira Deeming, Jacinta Price and Katherine Deves, that’s your choice.
And this is just rank bollocks:
The fact that you insist that they must have male bodied people in their group is gross homophobia on your part. You are saying that same sex attracted people are not allowed to have same sex only events.
As I read the article and as I quoted from it, it refers to Transitioned Women who are Lesbians. That’s not homophobic, it’s inclusive. Do you have a problem with inclusivity and including Transitioned Women who identify as Lesbians?
Belligerent, bellicose bastardy:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1299941.shtml
C@t
And not, I repeat NOT, men who put on a dress to get into a gathering of Lesbians so they can take one home to rape them!!! This was a case about Transitioned Women. They no longer have an appendage to do anything to them with!
———
I believe “gender identity” does not require any “transition” as you call it.
The majority of “trans women” have no body changes and are not required to.
> “This means that Australians are comprehensively rejecting ALL the First Nation people’s preferred options, as expressed in the Uluru Statement.”
What exactly is wrong with using existing Constitutional methods to “listen” to First Nation peoples ?
Our Parliamentary representatives are supposed to be there to listen to all of us Australians.
Why do we need some new method to “listen” to some group of people ?
If Aboriginal people feel that they are not being properly listened to, then there are numerous options which can be easily implemented & will be acceptable to all Australian people:
– Parliament can create a body similar to the Human Rights Commission.
– Parliament can increase the Parliamentary representation of the Northern Territory. This will automatically increase the number of Parliamentary representatives of First Nations origins.
c@t: “This was a case about Transitioned Women. They no longer have an appendage to do anything to them with!”
I read this judgement as applying to all transwomen, not just to those who have had genital-altering surgery.
‘Fernando says:
Tuesday, October 17, 2023 at 5:14 pm
> “This means that Australians are comprehensively rejecting ALL the First Nation people’s preferred options, as expressed in the Uluru Statement.”
What exactly is wrong with using existing Constitutional methods to “listen” to First Nation peoples ?
Our Parliamentary representatives are supposed to be there to listen to all of us Australians.
Why do we need some new method to “listen” to some group of people ?
If Aboriginal people feel that they are not being properly listened to, then there are numerous options which can be easily implemented & will be acceptable to all Australian people:
– Parliament can create a body similar to the Human Rights Commission.
– Parliament can increase the Parliamentary representation of the Northern Territory. This will automatically increase the number of Parliamentary representatives of First Nations origins’
—————————–
Uh huh.
First Nations people should own NewsCorp.
They should spend hundreds of millions on the IPA.
They should spend hundreds of millions bending election results.
THEN they will be listened to.
Roy Morgan Poll just dropped.
Period Mon 9 to Sun 15 Oct. Sample 1502
ALP 35 (up 2)
LNP 34 (steady)
GRN 14 (up 0.5)
Others 17 (down 2.5)
2PP – 54-46 ALP (up 1)
Roy Morgan Poll: When will Sussssan challenge Dutton as the Libs are further behind than the last election?
nadia88says:
Tuesday, October 17, 2023 at 5:20 pm
Roy Morgan Poll just dropped.
Period Mon 9 to Sun 15 Oct. Sample 1502
ALP 35 (up 2)
LNP 34 (steady)
GRN 14 (up 0.5)
Others 17 (down 2.5)
2PP – 54-46 ALP (up 1)
——————–
So much for the referendum being a drag on voter endorsement of the Albanese Labor Government. Dutton has kicked indigenous Australians in the teeth, and has been denied any ill-gotten ‘voter approval’ gains he might have hoped from it. This is good, as far as it goes, but no comfort to indigenous Australians.
Bit of an odd 2pp number there in Morgan, going by the old 80% GRN, 50% Others calculation, that would put Labor on 54.7-45.3 2pp, although I’m happy with those numbers.
Shift in voting intention since last Federal election, according to this Morgan poll:
Primary votes:
ALP up 2.5
LNP down 3.5
Grn up 1.5
TPP:
ALP up 2
LNP down 2
This points to a comfortable re-election of the Albanese Labor Government, with an increased majority. There will be pressure on Dutton’s leadership if numbers like this continue much longer.
Holden – Doubt anyone wants the L.O.T.O. job. It’s Dutton’s for the time being.
Paul – This poll only covered one day post referendum. There should be a couple of other polls out this week, and the polling dates will give us a better read on the post referendum trend. Doubt Australian’s will mark Albo down for having a go. Essential Poll dropped earlier this arvo but it doesn’t contain Primaries. There should also be a YouGov and Redbridge poll before the week is out. Next Newspoll possibly out this Sunday if they revert back to two-week polls.
2AM Canberra time tomorrow – the U.S. House of Reps begins their vote for a Speaker. Will be interesting. A month from today the funding runs out.
I think if the numbers are still like this in February, Dutton gets a warning tap on the shoulder, much like Abbott did in February 2015 after the “Sir Prince Philip” debacle. Then if the numbers don’t improve after that, then he’ll get the actual tap and it’ll probably be a contest between Angus Taylor, Paul Fletcher and Andrew Hastie.
Given the c 14% increase in votes across the board needed to get 4 states above 50% I’m thinking there is a fair chance that even if the Liberals and Nationals had formerly supported the referendum, that it would still have been defeated. The array of conspiracy theorists and reactionaries from Murdoch media, One Nation, Palmer, LDP, Fred Nile remnants, nutty religeous groups, sovereign citizens etc plus “progressive no” plus plenty of rank and file reactionaries in the L and N parties would have no doubt have run the same arguments. It is certainly challenging to get a referendum supporting First Nations up with the speed of anti-social media and the ability for manipulation to occur. Most people are simply not aware enough of the issues or readily accept the mass media’s casual failure to deal fairly with issues.
‘Spence says:
Tuesday, October 17, 2023 at 5:40 pm
Given the c 14% increase in votes across the board needed to get 4 states above 50% I’m thinking there is a fair chance that even if the Liberals and Nationals had formerly supported the referendum…’
———————–
Dutton did not.
Like any wannabe Trumpian ditch carp he chose to lead from the gutter.
Dutton owns the No!
Belgian police on Tuesday arrested a suspected gunman who shot dead two Swedish football fans in what authorities said was a “terrorist attack”. The arrest, in the Brussels neighbourhood of Schaerbeek, followed an intensive manhunt in the capital for the assailant armed with an automatic rifle. Police opened fire during the arrest, a spokesman for the Belgian prosecutors’ service, Eric Van Duyse, said, without confirming a report by broadcaster RTBF that the suspect was wounded. Prime Minister Alexander de Croo earlier said the suspect was a man of Tunisian origin who had been living in the country illegally.
Latest Morgan.
ALP two-party preferred support increases; ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%
https://roymorganresearch.cmail19.com/t/j-l-sydlhjl-ouhituihd-o/
Nadia
“Roy Morgan Poll just dropped.
Period Mon 9 to Sun 15 Oct. Sample 1502
ALP 35 (up 2)
LNP 34 (steady)
GRN 14 (up 0.5)
Others 17 (down 2.5)
2PP – 54-46 ALP (up 1)”
Thanks. Like Kirsdarke I am a little surprised that with the ALP up 2 and Greens +0.5% the ALP 2PP only goes up 1%??
Any way it is a good result for Labor considering the recent events. Certainly, claims that Jacinta Quisling-Price will be part of our next PM/DPM team look greatly exaggerated.
Certainly hope people all get to see and resee Dutton’s speech on Referendum night. Laced with nastiness.
that would put Labor on 54.7-45.3 2pp
I remember a former Prime Minister once said words to the effect, “You might agree with me or you might disagree with me but you will always know where I stand”
Perhaps they may not agree with Albanese but they know where he stands and respect he is a man of standing up for what he believes in, and they see that as strength
Then again it’s Morgan, which has its 2pp vote declared by those being polled rather than being calculated so it can bounce around in odd ways like this. And with a rather high Greens and Independent vote, that can be volatile like this.
Morgan should always be taken with a huge grain of salt*, but nonetheless it’s nice to see more data points to suggest that Dutton’s “victory” on Saturday will be a pyrrhic one indeed.
* Their referendum polling was way off the actual result compared to most of the other pollsters, as just one example.
Rainmansays:
Tuesday, October 17, 2023 at 4:51 pm
I fully support Watermelon. I’m probably just as left wing as them.
——————-
Watermelon’s problem isn’t his support for Palestinians but supporting Hamas raping and murdering civilians.
The High Court will hand down its judgement in Vanderstock & Anor v. Victoria tomorrow at 9:45am (Canberra time). This is the case challenging the Victorian Government’s EV road user charge, but it goes to the heart of what taxation powers the States have under the Constitution (in the same vein as Capital Duplicators vs ACT and Ha & Hammond vs NSW in the 90s that ended the State fuel excises), so it’s a pretty important case for the structure of the federation.