Click here for full display of Indigenous Voice referendum results.
Sunday morning
Below is the output of a linear regression model that uses four demographic variables (together with controls for state-level effects) to explain 87% of the variation in the yes vote by electorate, limited for technical reasons to the 141 seats of the five mainland seats.
The choice of the four demographic variables was constrained by the need to pick ones that didn’t correlate over-much with each other. This tends to mean they could have been replaced with other variables they correlated with and still produced a robust result. To go through the four in turn:
Finished School, i.e. completed year 12. As you would expect, yes did very considerably better in seats with high educational attainment and occupational categories related with it. Such seats also tend to have high numbers of people in their twenties and thirties and renters, and few labourers.
Secular. Seats with a lot of people who identified as having no religious affiliation were significantly stronger for yes. This is a favourite variable of mine, because it reliably associates with support for post-materialist causes including a republic, same-sex marriage and the Indigenous Voice, and also with voting for Greens and teals.
Owned. Yes did worse in seats where a lot of people owned their homes, which in turn correlates strongly with the 60-plus age cohort, a measure of which might well have taken its place in the model.
Age0to19. Seats with a lot of children — or, looked at another way, mortgage-paying families — tended to do poorly for yes.
The four “state” variables tell us only that yes did better in the two bigger states than the three smaller ones, which we can tell more efficiently by looking at the results. In particular, they tell us that it did so over and above what might be expected from demographic variation between the states on the variables described above.
Saturday night
1.45am. Results updating again now, presumably with little if anything further to be added for the evening.
12.50am. There are still a few results outstanding in WA, but I’m going to have to turn off my results updating for a couple of hours. If you’ve found it in any way entertaining or useful — and it’s still the only place where you can find the results at booth level — please consider helping out with a contribution through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the site.
11.55pm. Most of the Mobile Remote Team results are in from Lingiari now, and the yes vote among them has come back to 71.6%.
10.39pm. My live results stalled for a bit there because I was hacking around trying to get Remote Mobile Team results to appear in Lingiari, which they are now doing. These are of interest because they serve largely, though not exclusively, remote Indigenous communities. With six out of 22 reporting, the results are 2908 yes (79.7%) and 742 no (20.3%).
9.34pm. Looking increasingly certain now that Victoria will also be a no. Early numbers in Western Australia confirm what you would expect there too.
8.35pm. The prospect of a yes majority in Victoria has been drifting away, with my projection of 51.7% no getting steadily closer to the raw result of 52.2%. These numbers are probably flattering yes, because postal votes in particularly are likely to be very conservative.
8.07pm. First numbers from Northern Territory are about 70-30 to no, but this could be a bit of a rollercoaster due to the peculiarity of heavily indigenous remote mobile booths — no insight I can offer on when those might report.
7.58pm. Malarndirri McCarthy on the ABC going through results from heavily indigenous booths in Queensland, which are as high as 75%. You can see the relevant booths on my pages for Leichhardt and Herbert — click activate at the bottom of the links to see the map display, and the ones with green (i.e. yes) numbers are pretty much the ones McCarthy was going through.
7.55pm. If the potential for voting to happen after the result is confirmed be deemed an issue, WA is getting a bad case of it, thanks to daylight saving and decisive results on the eastern seaboard.
7.53pm. My system has come through with the formality of calling Queensland for no, joining New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania and the national result. The ACT is called for yes, and I have a 68% probability for no in Victoria. Nothing yet from the Northern Territory, where polls closed 23 minutes ago, or Western Australia where they do not close for over an hour.
7.31pm. My system has also been calling the national vote for no for some time, and clearly won’t be long in calling Queensland for no. Victoria remains very close, with yes having consistently been projected to be a shade below 50%.
7.24pm. Got that out a matter of seconds before Antony Green said the same.
7.23pm. My system is calling South Australia for no.
7.18pm. First results emerging from Queensland, inevitably going very heavily to no from small rural booths.
7.17pm. Behind Antony Green’s eight-ball here, but my system is now calling NSW for no.
7.07pm. I’m projecting a tight result in Victoria — raw yes vote is 47.5%, but my adjustment to account for where the votes are from gets it to 49.2%.
7.03pm. ABC calling New South Wales for no, though my system isn’t quite there yet.
6.59pm. And for what very little it’s worth, my system is calling the ACT for yes.
6.57pm. My system is calling Tasmania for no, and so apparently is Antony Green’s.
6.52pm. Among many other dubious things, the no campaign succeeded in propagating several news reports to the effect that teal seats were going to do badly for yes. But so far, yes ranges from 58% in Mackellar to 73% in Kooyong.
6.48pm. I’m calculating probabilities in a way I’m not confident enough about to include in the results pages, but they’re getting very close to calling Tasmania for no and ACT for yes — although Tasmania could potentially swing back as more Hobart booths report.
6.45pm. First booth in from South Australia — Darke Peake in Grey — records 55 votes for no and three for yes.
6.40pm. If you’re finding the results feature of any use or interest, you may perhaps care to make a contribution through the “become a supporter” buttons you’ll find at the top of this page or on the results page itself.
6.38pm. My projection for yes has improved in Victoria, from around 43% to 46.6%. But thumping no leads elsewhere.
6.27pm. So far I’m projecting very similar results in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania — the three states where voting has closed — ranging from 56.6% to 57.7%. Yes well ahead from a tiny count in the ACT.
6.21pm. With only yes and no to count, rather than multiple candidates never mind two-candidate preferred, the count is clearly going to progress very quickly. So far, there are seven booths with yes majorities and 44 with no.
6.20pm. The very earliest results are presumably from the most rural of areas, whereas my projection works off seat results. So if the booth results so far are conservative even by the standards of the seats they are in, as I suspect to be the case, the early projections should be unflattering for yes.
6.15pm. Small booths in from Farrer and Parkes in NSW and Wannon in Victoria, and my results seem to be working.
6pm. Polls have closed in eastern states with daylight saving. My results feature consists of a front page summarising results at national, state/territory and seat level, and results pages at House of Representatives seat level which include booth results in both table and map form (for the latter, click the activate button at the bottom of the relevant page). The seat results pages can be accessed from the drop-down menu or the “results by electorate” section at the bottom end of the main page.
The “projected” results for the national and state/territory votes make use of the seat-level estimates from Focaldata’s multi-level regression with post-stratification exercise as a baseline for measuring such results as are reported. However much they differ from Focaldata’s estimates of the relevant seats is projected on to Focaldata’s aggregated estimates. Doubtless this will be noisier than the booth-matched swings methods that can be applied at elections, but it should at least go some way towards correcting for the peculiarities of the early numbers.
So much for WA being the state that was going to be the hardest no. Projection currently has WA above the national average and very comfortably higher than SA/Qld
Thanks, Lars & Bird of Paradox – interesting info. I only found out recently via another on this sight (I can’t remember who it was) that the seat I’m enrolled in was named after Judith Wright, the northern part of which would be suited to a sequel of “Deliverance”.
With 76% voting “No”, I feel for any FN people living here.
https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2017/qld/final-report/files/maps-a4/2017-aec-qld-a4-wright.pdf
Steelydan says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 10:44 pm
Utterly vile reactionary. Nothing new. The past delighting in itself. And missing the point, as usual. We know who are the opponents of justice and equality. They have outed themselves once again. We will defeat you. We will never rest.
Interesting that there was no real overhang on national v states hurdle. A c. 10% across the board increase in Yes would have produced a national and 4 states majority.
bobsays:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 10:42 pm
I’m curious why people think the party of “black armband” history wars would suddenly:
* Participate in a “truth telling” process.
* Accept what came from that as actually being “truth”
* Proceed to a Treaty based upon the first two points.
____________________________________________________________
This is the problem in a nutshell.
I understand that people like you can never understand this but the vast majority of the 60% who voted No. Understand that our ancestors “we” stole this land that we massacred aboriginal people who got in the way of “us” expanding until we owned it all. We did the killing we did the rapes we introduced alcohol, we introduced all the diseases. Us, we did it.
Know this their is probably more rapes than romances in you genetic history. How about you dwell on this for the rest of your life and achieve nothing.
We absolutely understand that wallowing in this sort of self flagellation achieves bloody nothing, it can’t. We must go forward.
Possibility of some barely engaged no voters staying home in WA, given mainstream news was reporting the yes campaign had failed prior to polls closing?
Wouldn’t be a huge amount granted, but might be worth a percentage point pull down on the No vote in the results.
The $20 fine for not voting is not exactly the stick it used to be.
Nath
“I always liked LJayes. But god dam, how you can separate yourself from the excrement that she has worked alongside and joked along with for years I can’t imagine.”
Me too. And Kieran Gilbert, Andrew Clennel, all the political reporters. They are all quality objective journalists 99% of the time but I don’t know how they sleep at night
Mr Squig,
No, it’s the perfect day, so all the racists can wear their Aussie flag shorts and white hoods around the bbq and complain in about Aboriginal people getting too much and how it’s about time for a jolly cross-burning.
You seem to be having a go at white anglo people, Here in Sydney at least, you are more likely to be wearing a hijab or turban to fit your definition of racist (judging by the results)
All the Anglo Aussie seats in Sydney (with the exception of the shire) voted YES
Or is this just another bash the Aussie post?
hazzasays:
Me too. And Kieran Gilbert, Andrew Clennel, all the political reporters. They are all quality objective journalists 99% of the time but I don’t know how they sleep at night
_____________
I’ve seen them all joke with and sympathize with Paul Murray many times. They have pandered to him and treated him like he is not raging moron.
Nice to see the immediate switch from “no to division” with all the bots, cookers and sky news lovers changing to there “needs to be an audit of aboriginals rorting the system”. A decade in power for LNP where nothing like that needed to happen for any event (eg Robodebt), but now that the ALP is in, yes, time to crack down!
I wonder if that’ll be Dutton’s eventual policy. No actual benefit, just “audits” to attack the political enemies of Price & Mundine.
Nath
Yes so cringeworthy. I always wondered if that was just part of the job description
I wish Australia had detailed exit polling like you see in the US.
At a guess:
Decently to firmly yes:
wealthy home owners (excluding migrants), inner city types, White students, committed Greens, Communist and “red as red” Labor voters, Aboriginals themselves, university educated.
Decently to firmly no:
under pressure mortgage holders & renters outside the inner city, One Nation voters, the remainder of Labor voters (not separated out above), rural voters (except those that qualify as young and ‘green’), Liberal voters (excluding wealthy home owners in “teal” electorates) and migrants, high-school and trade educated, and small business owners.
The latter groups more numerous than the former/capturing the greater share of the total Australian population/aside from their level of yes/no votes.
Major factors: race, immigration status, income, wealth, geographic location, home owner status, raising children vs not, marriage status (usually shows up particularly for women) & education
(BTW not intended to denigrate any of the above groups, I am not one that thinks the ‘educated’ always get things right, so it is not definitively something to crow about when that vote breaks to a certain side.. sometimes the concensus amongst the educated will be right, sometimes not)
God article by Katharine Murphy.
I took away two important points. We see you Peter Dutton, and Australia now has to face up to what has been done over the last 200 years.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2023/oct/14/albanese-wanted-to-end-two-centuries-of-silence-but-we-said-no-and-failed-our-first-nations-people
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/13/voice-referendum-2023-ken-wyatt-accuses-peter-dutton-fear-and-division
Steelydan likes to pretend that ‘we’ can all just get on with it.
He’s an Uber driver, last time I checked.
Do you know who cant be an Uber driver?
Many aborigines who are born in NSW outside Sydney.
Why?
They don’t have birth certificates. their parents never registered the kids. No birth certificate: No drivers licence … but in many cases a bunch of motoring offences are then the segway to a lifelong adverse relationship with police, the court systems and recidivist jail terms. Until they pop their clogs in their early 40s.
2016: I was sent to Moree to appear as Crown Prosecutor at two weeks of District Court Sittings. Not only where there four trials listed, but also over 80 ‘short matters’ – sentences and all ground appeals – which I divided up with my instructing solicitor.
Most of the accused in that list were aboriginal men. No matter what the charge was that they were then appearing before the court on, it was uncanny – in most cases their criminal records started with a series petty driving offences – ‘drive never licensed’: why? They couldn’t obtain a licence, even if they had a responsible adult with a licence to teach them on the ‘Ls’.
Steelydan says: get on with it. If I can rise to the heights of Uber driver, then so can anyone.
… Except for half aboriginal kids born in NSW who can’t. No birth certificate you see.
Some might think that this sort of administrative oversight: this lack of a policy backstop in this circumstance that prevents aboriginal kids from becoming Uber drivers before the system makes them hardened criminals might be addressed by some sort of … dunno … a voice? … from aboriginal communities to the government to fix this sort of trap. So aboriginal kids can fulfil their dream and become Uber drivers. Just like Steelydan.
Judging by the seat by seat graphical representation on the abc, the middle/outer suburbs mostly voted no. The vast majority of these seats would be Labor-held but clearly didn’t have the same appetite for the Voice as the inner suburbs and wealthier parts of Melbourne and Sydney.
I’d say gender identity and sexuality too, but possibly that would be a closer split than one may normally forecast on progressive issues (although think it would still break that way.. and might have done so significantly).
Again not raising to denigrate, I am just fascinated how different groups, with their own individual perspectives, experiences and needs, tend to vote. One would expect such differences (all raised above) to generally be explanatory in some part where there is a lack of unanimity.
There’s a lot of people that need to be brought on board with their own unique experiences in a polity that is made up of such diverse groups!
Very high numbers of students in the Yes voting electorates.
Age is the most important determinant. Gens y (millennials) and z don’t carry the old-fashioned prejudices that their parents and grandparents do. With the passage of time I think we will be a much more socially progressive people. That said, the population on average is technically aging though as we have seen in the US, the usual rightward shift as people acquire assets and seek security is becoming weaker. Might have something to do with home ownership becoming a pipe dream.
Children are not born prejudiced. It’s taught
I do question how much of a difference “Truth” will make when so many yobbos have the basic attitude that “we stole it fair and square, so just get over it”, and no amount of gruesome details regarding the genocide that this country was founded upon is going to make them remotely sympathetic to a people that they regard as inherently deserving of their fate. On the contrary, trying to guilt these yobbos will only yield more racist downward envy.
White supremacy is baked into the nation’s foundations and most of the public are quite comfortable with this; they wouldn’t have it any other way. Even this whole referendum effort was predicated on the notion that the only path toward justice is the one requiring white approval for amending the text in a colonial document that was written by genocidal racists. Now with approval predictably denied, we’re all out of ideas. And Albo gets to put it behind him and fly to the USA to stand shoulder to shoulder in proudly condoning a contemporary colonial bloodbath.
Mr Squiggle at 10.18 pm and (by contrast) Puffy TMD at 10.24
A little history lesson to put this claim by Mr Squiggle in perspective: “As long as they get the same as me, …no more, …and no less, I will be satisfied and say Australia is the greatest nation on earth”.
Of course, Mr Squiggle you are not expecting Indigenous incomes to be anywhere near your income.
You have claimed to adhere to the 1967 referendum, without saying whether you support the effect of that referendum or the absolutely different intention behind it. The two are completely at odds.
The clear intention of those who campaigned for years for the 1967 referendum, and of the Holt government that ran the referendum, was to remove racial discrimination from the Constitution.
The relevant Cabinet minute (decision no 80 NAA A406/R1967/30 on 22 February 1967) stated that the Holt government supported the proposed change to section 51/26, because there was a “general impression” that it was discriminatory. The Cabinet “took the view that if the referendum was carried the Commonwealth’s role in general should not be to legislate itself but rather to participate with the states in the forming of policy”.
In other words, there was no intention by the Holt government to introduce racist legislation toward Indigenous people. Yet that is what subsequently occurred, particularly under the Howard government.
See: https://recordsearch.naa.gov.au/SearchNRetrieve/Interface/ViewImage.aspx?B=7001316 (p 101)
Mr Squiggle, as a non-Aboriginal Australian you have got more than Indigenous Australians, simply because you have never suffered racial discrimination under the Australian Constitution, whereas many Indigenous communities have.
Racism remains entrenched in the Constitution in section 51/26. Indeed, the situation is now so dire that Indigenous people in Australia are now more vulnerable to racial discrimination being perpetrated by a Commonwealth government than they were in 1966.
Those who voted No in this referendum contributed to entrenching that racism, which is clearly a situation in which Indigenous peoples, in law and in practice, get less rights than other Australians.
“ That said, the population on average is technically aging though as we have seen in the US, the usual rightward shift as people acquire assets and seek security is becoming weaker.”
Actually, the statistical trends in both America and australia are that gen Y and Z are not shifting rightward in the same way as the two preceding generations. Lack of home ownership and insecure work seems to have left them less ‘aspirational’ (ie. Greedy) than their elders. Plus, ‘rightwards’ politics is a dumpster fire these days – so less ‘normal’ and stable people identify with the alleged ‘centre-right’ politically. The only young un’s going to right as they age a little are cookers. Everyone else is staying left or centre left.
Dr Will
Methinks your (highly agree-fest) commenters need to get out more.
There’s less diversity on these pages (both now and in times past) than a Leftist stacked QandA panel (although you get more than their 3 viewers).
Stevie Wonder could’ve told you this result was coming 3 or more months ago. But well done to your (full disclosure) Teal “Party” seats – nothing like a bunch of multi millionaires teaching us working class folks about “morality.”
Earlwood
An Uber driver really!!! or does Uber driver mean something I do not know.
By the way, how is your table going?
What a good night for Australia.
60% No not a single State. Ahhhhh now the sleep of the just.
Yes definitely age too, a huge factor, but would be interesting to see how that intersects with other criteria. E.g. under 40 but a mortgage holder with a family, vs under 40 with no kids and no mortgage.
I think you’d be able to split up the youth vote in ways that showed some very clear splits within that group too.
There is a bit of conjecture coming through in the US now that conservatives may have a bit of hope of gradually pegging back the progressive shift. The birthrate amongst White American progressives is about 1.0~1.1, amongst White conservatives ~2.08, amongst “ultra conservative types” inclusive of orthodox Jews, mormons, and the amish etc, well above replacement rates. With the latter being groups that tend to be effective in instilling their own values in their children, vs more mainstream groups that tend to hand their children over to the flow of society generally over time.
It is not inconceivable that certain areas that progressives have done well in recently, might conceivably become areas that get renewed (successful) pushback in the other direction over time. Note multiple states in the US repealed abortion legislation that had previously passed, and many electorates considered to have been permanently lost for the Conservatives thanks to progressive shift, are now considered winnable (again) for Trump, based on polling, and that is even before generational effects are taken into account with people with progressive values tending to have far fewer children than those of a more traditional mindset (with some exceptions of course).
I’m not saying things are *going* to play out that way, but I think it could be valid explanation if they did over time.
C@tmomma wrote a couple of pages back that she was a bit surprised not to hear more from Marion Scrymgour during the campaign. I was similarly surprised – she seems like too much of a talent to have been relatively hidden away.
I’ll throw out the regions vs capital cities one too. Melbourne from an isolated country town is like stepping into a different world. How can kids be racist when they see a melange of races around them every day. Racial biases sure, but not that pure disdain and inhumanity.
The towns along the freeway to Bendigo or Ballarat seem to be just as much a migrant melting pot as Melbourne. This is modern Australia and it’s a good thing – immigrants are good for regional economies too
Nogginsays:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 10:59 pm
Steelydan says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 10:44 pm
Utterly vile reactionary. Nothing new. The past delighting in itself. And missing the point, as usual. We know who are the opponents of justice and equality. They have outed themselves once again. We will defeat you. We will never rest.
===============================================================
Well said friend, doubt the utterly vile reactionary will ever have a clue translating that.
Too many big words.
Anecdotally, I would say the Republicans’ successes are 100% tied to Trump to cobble together enough of the population to get 270 electoral college votes in the near future. The demographics are against them at least until millions of Orthodox Jews and homeschooled bible bashers turn 18. Any other presidential candidate than Trump would struggle to get enough demographic groups to turn out for him or her. That’s why the Republicans are tolerating him inciting an attack on their own workplace where some of them drew their guns and barricaded themselves into the chambers of Congress. Mitch McConnell and countless others were unreserved in their condemnation for a few days until they backflipped.
There is literally no low they won’t sink to because they know he’s their ticket to power.
Janesays:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 10:01 pm
“Dutton spruiking taking Aboriginal kids away from their parents via boarding schools now. He really can’t see how awful an idea that is?”
You are completely wrong.
Google “Mjoorditj mob – wesley college”
And then look up all the Aboriginal AFL Players that have come out of Wesley College (and as much as it pains me to say – other Perth PSA schools). AFL isn’t everything, but it is one very public indicator of the success of the program.
Every single elite private boarding school in Australia should be running this sort of program. And it should get lots of funding from State and Federal Governments. And more importantly the Girls schools should be doing this to get the young females out of the communities for their safety and develop them into independent leaders.
Queensland at 31.6% yes with 68.7% counted… Could end up under 30% when postals are all done. NSW could similarly drift under 40% yes.
My personal expectation was a 57 No 43 Yes based on the poll aggregate of 41 Yes and a small last minute swing showing up. The National vote just ticked over to 39.9% Yes, something about seeing a 3 at the start of that number horrifies me. I had suspected Tasmania being Yes was just a result of small sample size, so South Australia and Northern Territory were the biggest surprises for me. Adelaide is still in doubt, but it looks like ALL federal seats in SA and NT will have a No vote – what!
At the start of the night I knew it was on track for defeat but it actually looked a bit better than expected with Victoria teetering on Yes and inner city seats doing much better than expected. It has ended looking far worse.
I found C@tmomma’s story about the indigenous man at the polling booth saying “We have simply reached out our hand and asked people to join with us” really touching. I hope he isn’t heartbroken.
Hazza I agree with you re: Trump.
In fact I think both majors in America need (it is just the way the electorate has gone) populist and popular characters (at least popular in terms of their own potential supporters) to get them over the line.
A Michelle Obama or Oprah ticket (or even Gavin Newsom) much better for the left than a Biden ticket.
It may be a bit “idiocracy” but you’re better off with a candidate that is generally likeable, than a policy wonk or someone seen as critically compromised, whatever else positive regard one has for them.
(Of course Trump can escape that last bit because he is effectively, now, to his supporters, a demagogue).
SMCOPerth
Your proposition fails to account for all those refugee groups that have arrived in Australia with nothing but the clothes on their backs and gone on to be enormously successful. They didn’t carry on about intergenerational trauma holding them back. They got on with it – often in the face of a not very supportive Australian society.
Boerwar @ #414 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 8:39 pm
Would have? I fail to see how that’s any different from what he’s already done.
It’s a given that Dutton and the Coalition are going to mindlessly oppose literally everything. Labor needs to plan for it. Count on it. Stop using it as an excuse and come up with a way forward that works in spite of it.
“FUBAR says:
Friday, October 13, 2023 at 11:53 am
y 40 N60 95% CI +/-3%. That’s basically what the polling is telling us. I have no reason to disagree.”
It’s not neurosurgery.
a r
Stop being arrogant pricks and start compromising.
There appears to be a transcription error (reversed Yes and No values?) for the Halls Head South polling booth in the Division of Canning – it is showing a Yes result (69%) that is more than 30% higher than any other polling place in the Division (next highest is 38%).
Maybe quasi celebrity candidates are the way forward. Yes despite the Rs being a shambles, the Ds are on track to put forward Joe and Kamala *again.*
I’m not sure about Michelle Obama. Someone like Pete Buttigieg, he’s a really good communicator, actually effective in his transport portfolio.
[“What matters is that we all accept the result in this great spirit of our democracy. All of us know people who have voted yes and people who voted no, but to those of you who voted yes, let me say these few words: As the leader of the Coalition, who has supported the No campaign, while I disagree with your position, I respect your decision to have voted yes.”] – SMH Blog.
Codswallop! This man can’t lie straight in bed – eg, he said wasn’t going to appear tonight but couldn’t resist a victory lap, no doubt urged on by Howard, Abbott & possibly Morrison.
Despite today’s results, the chances of Dutton getting his hands on power are still fairly remote, especially given the cushion provided to Labor by the Teals, whose seats appear to be safe in the wake of the referendum. But he can’t be underestimated following Abbott’s appointment to the Board of News Corp, who’ll probably be tasked to oversee its operations in Oz. Moreover, the ABC reported that 34 of Labor’s 78 seats voted “No”, which should raise alarm bells, even though this probably won’t cause too much long-term harm if the economy falls into line.
Following a short period, Labor needs to get on the front foot & start calling Dutton out for what he is. He was a dismal failure as a minister and incapable of original thought. This should not only come from Albanese but also senior ministers, some of whom seem to have been peculiarly silent in the up-lead to the referendum.
Dutton thinks he’s PM material; he’s not but is nevertheless very determined to hold said office. He will count today as a victory and should not under any circumstances be underestimated, bearing in mind that it was thought that Clinton was a shoo-in.
Peta Credlin: “on SSM, we said you’ve gotta support because it’s about equal treatment under the law. And now you’re flipping it saying we actually wanna create two classes of citizens.”
THERE ARE ALREADY TWO CLASSES OF CITIZENS
Welcome to pollbludger, the ABC and the Age. Two blokes face off in a democratic poll. One bloke gets 40%, the other gets 60%. The bloke that got 60% is the one with the problem.
hazza,
Read the room.
It invariably happens on election night that officials enter numbers the wrong way round in a few places here and there. There are two pretty clear examples of it in O’Connor as well.
Despite early polling, I had always thought Howard’s ‘children overboard’ population would reject the voice.
It was a very weak / poor offering, predominantly symbolic offering on the one hand and on the other hand it offered up a mirror that showed Australia’s heart of darkness, a wide spread deeply embedded and for the larger part unappreciated racism. Here I mean racism by the fairly broad understanding consistent with 2023 understanding of race issues, and not the ultra narrow 1950’s Howard view of racism, denying of a black arm band history, when a black arm band history was the stark and cruel reality.
Having said that I’m shocked by just how bad the result is. The racism hasn’t receded from a high water mark of Howard and the racist lies of children overboard that won him an election in the foulest and most disgusting manner, it has grow quite significantly.
FUBAR
I must say the only part I disagree with in your statement, is the part where you input that it disagrees with my own position.
I agree with you. Where I would point to a difference though is that refugees settled into Australia very often had parents that did come from an employed background, where families tended to be intact (unless separated by war obviously) and a cultural belief in hard work and personal responsibility and a history of it. E.g. Chinese and Vietnamese, who also happen to align with both international mapping of IQ to financial performance, within nations as well.
I’m a person who would be considered by people here to be extremely right of centre, but I do think, even from such a perspective, one should not underestimate the effect that dispossession can have on a people. “Losing” your nation and your place in the world has to be devastating.
Palestinians, Aboriginal Australians, and poor White Londoners and White Americans dying in an opioid crisis reflect this uniquely damaging issue. And as anti-White leftists continue to attack and support vectors that dispossess White people of attachment to their history and pride in their race and their nationhood, something White people are going to increasingly face.
Which is why I am very much in the camp of all people needing to be proud of their race, its history, and their position in the world, and seek to ensure it is positively regarded. I do see it as a *key* component in a people being able to be healthy, and perform well in society. Some, and here, East Asians, and perhaps even Nigerian migrants can point to charting a different course, where they can come through hardship and resistance and still do well, but I would caution on assuming it is generally something that would apply to all human sub-groups. We’ve all had different development pressures in history, that lasted for hundreds of thousands of years, that I think leave cultural and genetic marks.
If I go into a somewhat off-kilter example.. what is the difference between a sex worker that uses drugs to cope with his/her profession, and one that uses it as a springboard to a financially successful life and “just gets on with it” and takes the opportunity to out earn a (developing world) doctor, without needing to commit to the education and study required to achieve it?
I would posit that perhaps the drug user is more sensitive. That they feel the pressure of the situation more acutely and so deal with it in a more self-destructive way.. whilst the other person might have some degree of pathological detachment that allows such things to fall off them like water. E.g. it might be the person more damaged by the experience that is slightly more normal/human than the one that isn’t. It can even be the person that doesn’t feel things so acutely that is more damaged in a sense. Many possibilities exist.
I don’t hold it against Aboriginals whilst also agreeing with you. Yes, I think others have proven it can be done, and the Aboriginals that take that same path, I firmly believe, can and do succeed in Australia. We might still help to lift the number that can be so described though, where we can, whilst not wanting to go about it in such a way that sets them back, which of course can happen too.
The White left constantly telling Aboriginals they can’t succeed because Australia is racist, is at the very least at the margins, going to have a negative affect on some on their approach to uplifting themselves.
Like all people, some will react to a their being told the path is too hard, by trying less, and others by trying more. But I think how different races and parents react to that (on behalf of their children) may differ across cultural and racial groups. (Again not to disparage any racial or cultural group.. this is what diversity MEANS, some differences in people, and our not being a monolith if one group might do less well in some certain respect, there might be other areas and circumstances in which they do more well).
FUBAR @ #536 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 11:27 pm
That’s good advice for Dutton and the Coalition.
And for Labor, insofar as the Greens, Teals, and crossbench are concerned.
Dr D: …..Those who voted No in this referendum contributed to entrenching that racism, which is clearly a situation in which Indigenous peoples, in law and in practice, get less rights than other Australians.
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I really don’t follow your thinking. The blame for tonight’s numbers lie with those who advocated a referendum that was based on the notion that one person should have more influence on government than the one vote that everyone else gets. ie The Voice was premised on the sense that opportunity needs to be unequally stacked in your favour to be classified as opportunity.
Unfortunately, the aboriginal leadership team that authored the statement from the heart have been captured by the inner city elites. ie those who have had found fame, success and fortune for themselves by snaking their brothers and sisters. All you have to do is look at which seats are strong YES supporters. Higgins, Wentworth, Kooyong, etc. They have persuaded aboriginal and torres straight islanders that their way is the best way to win and succeed in modern Australia.
The proponents of The Voice are the 21st century equivalents of the 18th century colonists who turned up with 400 blankets, some hand mirrors and a bag of glass baubles and traded them for vast tracts of land.
There is no joy in seeing the 60% vote for No tonight. Its a sad day for reconciliation and the notion that voting NO to this poisoned proposal makes me a racist is unsupportable.
Lance Franklin
Quinton Narkle
Sam Powell-Pepper
Bobby Hill
Arthur Jones
Tyrell Dewar
But Boarding Schools for Aboriginal kids are a disaster. Apparently.
If there’s one thing those blackfullas can do it’s kick a footy, hey fubar
FUBARsays:
Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 12:20 am
SMCOPerth
Your proposition fails to account for all those refugee groups that have arrived in Australia with nothing but the clothes on their backs and gone on to be enormously successful. They didn’t carry on about intergenerational trauma holding them back. They got on with it – often in the face of a not very supportive Australian society.
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We are not talking about refugees, it’s about the owners of this land, the First Nations People!
Don’t you get it?
Without disrespecting refugees or immigrants, despite the majority of you voting to disrespect First Nations Peoples, by the way thanks guys, well done you lot western Sydney for your No vote!
Good to see you love your fellow citizens.