Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 45 (open thread)

Unsurprising results on federal voting intention and the Indigenous Voice from Essential Research, while RedBridge finds the Coalition making no headway in Victoria.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll finds both major parties unchanged on the primary vote, Labor at 31% and the Coalition at 32%, with the Greens down two to 13%, One Nation up one to 8% and 6% undecided. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down two to 49% and the Coalition up two to 45% – the narrowest result this term – with undecided likewise at 6%. A result on the Indigenous Voice maintains the remorseless trend, with no up three to 51% (hard no up one to 42%, soft no up one to 8%) and and yes down one to 41% (hard yes down two to 28%, soft yes steady at 12%).

Regarding the government’s latest package of workplace laws, the poll finds 79% are in favour of criminalising wage theft, with only 6% opposed; 66% support “closing loopholes so that employers can’t use labour hire workers to undercut full time workers”, with 12% opposed; and 54% support “ensure that gig workers who work through digital platforms have minimum rights and entitlements”, with 15% opposed. Forty-nine per cent favoured “businesses maximising profits for shareholders” as the cause of rising living costs over 32% for the alternative cause of wage and salary increases for workers, and 42% felt workplace power tilted too much in favour of employers compared with 12% for workers. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1135.

Also doing the rounds is a Victorian state poll from RedBridge Group that shows primary vote shares much as they were at the November election, with Labor on 37%, the Coalition on 34% and the Greens on 13% (36.7%, 34.5% and 11.5% respectively at the election). However, Labor is credited with a wider two-party preferred lead of 56.5-43.5, compared with 55.0-45.0 at the election. The poll was conducted August 31 to September 14 from a substantial sample of 3001, allowing for credible breakdowns by gender, age, region, education, income and home ownership in the pollster’s report.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,605 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 45 (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 33
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  1. Dandy Murray says:
    Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 9:56 am

    nath,

    That may be so, but they also have all of their front teeth.
    ______
    You’ve made a powerful enemy today my friend. 🙂

  2. Top of BK’s interesting-as-always set of media links today:

    “Ross Gittins calls for the jailing of corporate crooks. He argues a compelling case.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/corporate-lawbreakers-should-be-jailed-imagine-what-their-spouses-would-say-20230919-p5e5rx.html

    A related thought: wouldn’t it be fun if Australian law enforcement agencies were more inclined to invite the media along when they arrest a white collar criminal and then conduct what is known in the US as a “perp walk.” I recall it being done to Harry M Miller some decades back, but not that often otherwise.

    Many decades ago, I attended an international conference in which I met, of all people, the Secretary of State for Health in a small New England state (either Connecticut or Rhode Island, I can’t remember which). It was the time of the notorious kerosene baths in nursing homes and he asked me what the Government was doing about them. I said that I believed that the offending homes had been temporarily closed and that the residents had been transferred elsewhere. He then said, “no, not what you are doing about the residents, what are you doing about the owners?” And I said that I thought they were being investigated. And he said, “I’ll tell you what we do about these sorts of people where I come from: we march down to their offices with the police and media in tow and have them dragged out and thrown in the back of the paddy wagon in time for it to be shown on the evening news.”

    I know innocent until proven guilty and all that, but it’s easy to see a certain appeal in that approach.

  3. (angry alert)

    The blaming the Yes campaign for the damage done by the dishonest and disreputable No campaign continues. Day and after day they come, it’s the Yes’s fault, it’s the wording, it’s the timing, it’s Albo’s fault, Labor’s fault …

    All of which sounds to me like not being able to deal with the truth of the matter – if the referendum fails, it will be the fault of Dutton and his enablers, of hate and selfishness, and fear. They should wear their pyrrhic victory with pride – We Stopped Recognition and Healing statuettes or the like for their mantlepieces; Morrison has contacts who could churn out little mementos, no wukkin furries. If you win, go crow about. Jump up and down. Be out and proud, look at what you’ve done; then look at yourselves.

  4. Rewi: “Oh no! Not the High Court! Whatever shall we do if a citizen peacefully exercises their rights and seeks an interpretation from the judicial arm of one of the world’s most stable representative democracies about a provision embedding an advisory body with no decision making power?
    For crying out loud.”

    Well, they’re not going to get the chance because the electorate hasn’t bought the Voice proposal.

    To be honest, I’d have more confidence in the High Court finding some sort of implicit recognition in the Constitution than I would in a referendum process at this point in time. I’m fearful that not only has the Labor Government mucked up this opportunity, but that we have lost the chance to achieve constitutional recognition for Indigenous peoples for another few decades

  5. I enjoy reading posts on this site. I consider myself as an uncommitted voter come federal election time. I worked for Malcolm Fraser in Opposition and Government. I worked for Andrew Peacock in various capacities and worked for Jeff Kennett. My favourite PM was Paul Keating. I voted for him. My least favourite PM was John Howard. I never voted for him. I had great admiration for Julia. I had no admiration for Morrison. I was greatly disappointed in Turnbull. Good ideas, but no political smarts.
    I am now retired without any involvement in the game – none. I was once a regular contributor to this site. Also came here to read Bushfire Bill.
    Personal reasons for not posting on this site the last couple of years.
    It remains the best of its kind.

  6. “The blaming the Yes campaign for the damage done by the dishonest and disreputable No campaign continues. Day and after day they come, it’s the Yes’s fault, it’s the wording, it’s the timing, it’s Albo’s fault, Labor’s fault …
    All of which sounds to me like not being able to deal with the truth of the matter – if the referendum fails, it will be the fault of Dutton and his enablers, of hate and selfishness, and fear. They should wear their pyrrhic victory with pride – We Stopped Recognition and Healing statuettes or the like for their mantlepieces; Morrison has contacts who could churn out little mementos, no wukkin furries. If you win, go crow about. Jump up and down. Be out and proud, look at what you’ve done; then look at yourselves.”

    Sorry, but Labor is in government. Blaming the opposition – or the electorate as a whole – is a pretty weak excuse in my opinion. From the outset, Albo ran with a strategy of “we’re going to do this whatever: Dutton, you can get on board or suit yourself.” Always a difficult way to go, given that no referendum has ever succeeded without bipartisan support.

    And was it even worth it, given that there was always an option of establishing the Voice without a referendum? I reckon that, if the vote is 60-40 No or worse, then it would have been far better for the referendum never to have gone ahead in the first place. And hence, I am inclined to put almost all of the blame on the Government, as they decided to take us all to this dreadful place.

  7. meher baba,
    Please try to absorb what Itza wrote at 9.59am. You are expecting the Prime Minister to be a miracle worker, when the forces of evil have been arrayed against him. Not just from this country but globally. Wake up and smell the sulphurous fumes!

  8. meher baba, where is your opprobrium for Dutton and Littleproud? You’re blaming the people fighting racism, and giving free passes to the people stoking it.

  9. Dandy Murray 10:02 am

    *Puts 2002 Lions scarf on*

    My compliments on your impeccable fashion sense. I thought you had good taste, DM 🙂

    The Lions got to win a third flag and defeat Collingwood on the same day. Perfect day

  10. meher baba
    Sorry, but Labor is in government. Blaming the opposition – or the electorate as a whole – is a pretty weak excuse in my opinion. From the outset, Albo ran with a strategy of “we’re going to do this whatever: Dutton, you can get on board or suit yourself.” Always a difficult way to go, given that no referendum has ever succeeded without bipartisan support.

    It is the PM’s fault that he could not get bipartisan support?

  11. As disappointed as I am in the LNP approach to the Voice referendum, I am stillglad Albo stuck to his word and held the referendum.

    It would have been another betrayal of First Nations people if Albo had joined the list of PMs who promised to do something but chickened out when it came time to act.

  12. Over 60% support for Yes before Albo stuffed up the referendum question, now 40% so by PB’s reconing 20% of Australians just instantly became racists. Makes lots of sense.

  13. Regarding the “No” campaign, check out this week’s Media Watch. I linked it yesterday.

    https://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/episodes/voice/102870788

    The “No” campaign are mostly acting in bad faith. They oppose the Voice, Recognition and Reconciliation in their very bones. On that episode we hear some of the old tropes I remember from my teenage days*. In their black hearts they want First Nations people to go away – merge into the mainstream or disappear into the fringes out of sight, they don’t care.

    As for the campaign, if it was a cricket match, only one side is playing cricket. Sure, the “Yes” campaign has been incompetent. They seem not to have changed their approach from this time last year when the community was generally supportive.

    What could have been done differently? If there was good will on both sides, the matter might have been able to be worked through before a referendum was decided. However, there never was good will. Provide details? Dutton was looking for reasons to oppose, before he discovered he could just make them up. Details given would have been attacked, more demanded and the goal posts shifted.

    What should have been done? Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Probably legislate the Voice first, with a promise of a referendum down the road. Anything else? Fight dirty too? It wouldn’t work for “Yes”.

    * a long time ago

  14. Of course, on a political blog everything is seen through the prism of the political contest.

    However, I will continue to repeat – at intervals – the fundamental point that this referendum, including what it specifically seeks (recognition and voice together) is at the behest of the vast majority of indigenous representatives, elders and leaders in Australia.

    Anthony Albanese is keeping faith with them by bringing on the referendum as promised. He did not promise to deliver the Voice – because that is a promise that he is not able to deliver – only the voters of Australia can deliver that. But he promised to give them that opportunity and he has kept that promise.

    The fact is that Dutton’s and Littleproud’s Coalition have made this about politics – by not contributing anything at all constructive to the development of the proposal and, once it had been finalised, by employing a web of lies, disinformation, misdirection and any slimy, dishonest political trick available to undermine the proposal.

    Against this scorched earth policy, Anthony Albanese has two options. Either keep his promise and progress the referendum to likely failure or else break his promise, slink away and leave the proposal to rot until such time, if ever, a Coalition government puts it forward knowing that Labor will not have the moral and ethical vacuum to employ the same tactics for cheap political gain.

    Albanese and Labor are taking the morally correct and, coincidentally, politically best option (if only because breaking the promise would be terrible politics per se). Keeping their promise to the indigenous leaders of Australia. Which, in itself, is a rare experience for them.

    The rest is cheap and nasty politics.

  15. like saying colonisation benefitted the colonised

    It brutalized them*, and benefitted them**. There’s some truth to both. Although not an equal truth, and one doesn’t cancel out the other.

    The real problem with statements like that is the unspoken implication that the only way to deliver the benefit was alongside the brutality. That there exists no way to share technology and improved living standards with a people that doesn’t involve killing most of them and oppressing the rest. And of course also that the ends justify the means.

    All false. All lies. All asserted but unspoken every time someone talks about how colonization was good for the colonized.

    * “them” as in “all of them, the entire population”
    ** “them” as in “only the ones lucky enough to survive the brutality”

  16. C@tmma,
    Speaking of evil, what’s your views on socialism, authoritarianism, and China?

    Also Socrates,
    If the readers have the brains to do some research, that is the exact reason Peter Dutton did not support the Stolen Generations Apology. Because he knew nothing would happen, and that was the fault of Labor turning against Rudd and the LNP and opposing bipartisanship. Don’t believe me, do your research.

    And finally TPOF,
    Speaking of cheap financial advantage for our mates, just think how Labor went about Qantas. It’s not just the LNP.

  17. Just a related, but separate, comment on the Statement from the Heart and the indigenous support for it and the terms of the referendum:

    People like Noel Pearson tried to play nice with the Coalition. They worked incredibly hard to come up with a non-confrontational proposal that would be a something more substantial, no matter how slight, than a tokenistic recognition which is now bruited about a half-century too late.

    Yet again, they found – as they did with Abbott and Turnbull and Fraser – that fine words and good intentions were always forthcoming. But when it came to a choice of actually doing something for our indigenous people or getting a cheap political or financial advantage for themselves and their mates, it was always the indigenous people who were kicked to the kerb.

  18. Over 60% support for Yes before Albo stuffed up the referendum question, now 40% …..

    I rest my case. A classic. Come in spinner.

    Over 60% before the Dutton and Murdoch Lie War Machine revved up, now 40% …

  19. Q: The only way to deliver the benefit was alongside the brutality

    Exactly- colonisation and modernisation/development are not synonyms, they are entirely separate concepts.

    An easy example is in Arnhem land, where Macassan traders traded goods with Australians and farmers established tamarind farms here that advanced both societies without colonising the place.

    You dont have to have your land and children stolen to qualify for an iPhone.

  20. Scott
    Dutton and his cronies could have not voted for the Referendum but they did voted for it and reneged on bipartisan support, by campaigning for no

    For this referendum, whatever the Albanese government did (or did not) do, it is my belief that Dutton would always have backed the No case.

  21. Anyway, the ABC online is running a good news story about the Australian Chamber Orchestra and its ACO Foundations program, an intensive music education program, designed and facilitated by the Australian Chamber Orchestra (ACO), aimed at disadvantaged schools.

    In the Australian Chamber Orchestra’s Neilson auditorium in Sydney’s Walsh Bay, a flock of primary school children is chittering excitedly in the wings.

    As the doors open, a hush falls over the chamber and the students, aged between 6 and 12, file in reverently.

    Laid out before them are about 50 child-sized string instruments, from violins to cellos, that endearingly look like toy instruments (but they’re not). One by one the kids pick them up and prepare to play, heads held high, bows in hand.

    The design of the Foundations program is based on research by neuromusical educator Dr Anita Collins, which shows that playing a musical instrument can have positive and lasting impacts on brain structures and function.

    t enhances language processing pathways and improves executive function, which is the part of the brain that makes decisions, regulates emotion and solves complex problems – making it a particularly unique tool for improving learning and behavioural outcomes in school-aged children.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-20/aco-foundations-music-program-anita-collins-richard-tognetti/102873050

    Dr. Anita Collins is an educator, researcher and writer in the field of brain development and music learning.

    Here’s her TED talk about music and the brain.

    https://youtu.be/ueqgenARzlE?si=5u8cLvCwzoL8lKhG

  22. “Over 60% support for Yes before Albo stuffed up the referendum question, now 40% so by PB’s reconing 20% of Australians just instantly became racists. Makes lots of sense.”

    It really depends on your definition and understanding of racism and how it impacts the lives of its victims.

    I would have put the racist percent way above 60% at the start, but if you have a white picket fence understanding of racism, and a Howardesque world view such that until you’ve joined the klan and lynched your first victim you can’t possibly be racist the racist percentage would be quite low.

    Who knows huh.

  23. I get the sense that Babet’s legal team’s heart is not really in this case.
    The judge is not buying any of the arguments.
    I hope costs get awarded against them.

  24. Dandy Murray @ #52 Wednesday, September 20th, 2023 – 10:02 am

    *Puts 2002 Lions scarf on*

    As a Blues supporter I’m expecting very little from them this weekend. I hated going to the Gabba to watch them get trounced so often. And also down at the GC, not a good warm weather or traveling team. I was once so despairing I left my blues scarf at the Gabba after yet another loss believing it was a sacrifice that needed to be made to lift the voodoos curse on them. Didn’t work of course.

    As much as I loved the win against Melbourne this weekend, lets be fair and say Melbourne kicked themselves out of a win.

  25. Steve777 on previous thread on Tue at 11.16 pm

    “Brexit would have to go down in history as a massive own goal by the UK.”

    Details matter. For the record, neither Scotland nor N Ireland voted for Brexit. The Welsh? Confused. The whole thing was a costly charade driven by a Convict’s ego (Boris) and the English nationalists.

    Costly not just for the UK, or what remains of it, but also for the EU, with all those divorce meetings.

  26. Dr Doolittle @ #81 Wednesday, September 20th, 2023 – 11:10 am

    Steve777 on previous thread on Tue at 11.16 pm

    “Brexit would have to go down in history as a massive own goal by the UK.”

    Details matter. For the record, neither Scotland nor N Ireland voted for Brexit. The Welsh? Confused. The whole thing was a costly charade driven by a Convict’s ego (Boris) and the English nationalists.

    Costly not just for the UK, or what remains of it, but also for the EU, with all those divorce meetings.

    One does have to wonder at either the incompetence or malicious intent of the Cameron government in designing the referendum. Allowing it to be decided by a pure majority of voters and not a balance of voters and nations, like our double majority, shows one or the other.

  27. Shogun says:
    Wednesday, September 20, 2023 at 10:55 am
    Scott
    Dutton and his cronies could have not voted for the Referendum but they did voted for it and reneged on bipartisan support, by campaigning for no

    For this referendum, whatever the Albanese government did (or did not) do, it is my belief that Dutton would always have backed the No case.
    ————–
    Thats why Dutton and his cronies will get the political backlash against them , the lib/nats have nothing to offer

  28. A strong element of Brexit sentiment was little englandism.

    In that context giving equal billing to Cornwall, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland was never in the frame.

    A bit like the ACT and the NT, the two jurisdictions most likely to vote ‘yes’, not being in the frame either.

  29. Beekeepers to ‘learn to live’ with deadly varroa mite

    Beekeepers will have to learn to live with the deadly varroa mite following a national decision to shift from eradication to a management approach, AAP reports.

    The invasive mite was first detected near the Port of Newcastle in northern NSW in June 2022.

    More than 14,000 hives were euthanised in the following four months as authorities tried to halt the spread.

    Despite a $100 million effort to eradicate the pest over the past 14 months, scientific data and advice suggested the strategy was no longer possible.

    The National Management Group, which manages the spread of varroa mite across Australia, made a unanimous decision on Tuesday to transition its approach to addressing the biosecurity issue confronting beekeepers and the pollination industry.

    Non-compliance by some beekeepers, a recent spike in new detections and over a wider area made eradication a non-viable option, the group said.

    The varroa mite mainly feeds and reproduces on larvae and pupae, causing malformation and weakening of honey bees and transmitting numerous viruses.

    There have been more than 260 outbreaks identified in the Newcastle region, on the northern NSW coast near Coffs Harbour and as far inland as near the Victorian border since the parasite was first detected.

  30. The judge in the Babet crosses case pointed out that existing registered political parties could object post-referendum. But of course, Palmer has deregistered the UAP once again.

  31. Pueo
    It has never been quite clear how the eradication program had any hope of controlling varroa in wild hives. $100 million down the toilet.
    A possible benefit for biodiversity is that there might be systemic reductions in the huge energy and nutrient quantities diverted from native species to honey bees.

  32. Boerwar @ #85 Wednesday, September 20th, 2023 – 11:28 am

    A strong element of Brexit sentiment was little englandism.

    In that context giving equal billing to Cornwall, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland was never in the frame.

    A bit like the ACT and the NT, the two jurisdictions most likely to vote ‘yes’, not being in the frame either.

    The voters for sure had little England syndrome, but the political elite must have/should have known that. So that gets me back to the Cameron government being either incompetent or malicious, in that they didnt think it would get a leave win, or wanted a leave win.

  33. Could Steelydan, KC please expand on exactly how, in his learned opinion “Albo stuffed the referendum question”.

    I’m unfamiliar with this legal stuff, so I need this whitesplained to me, asap.

  34. On Brexit and referendums (a)

    “Like all referendums on constitutional matters, this ballot has opened up cracks in society – irreconcilable differences in its branching futures, if you like – that will not quietly go away.”

    Which brings us back to the fractious United (sic) Kingdom, and a look at how the King of the Kingdom is faring.

    At the Scotland versus England friendly last week, God Save the King was booed by half the crowd – the Scottish half. In a way, this is surprising, because it is, of course, the national anthem of the UK, so they were technically booing their own song.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/18/the-booing-of-the-national-anthem-shows-the-vulnerability-of-king-charless-reign

  35. Nah nath, I have a singlet and a beanie since then too.

    TBH the beanie and scarf aren’t much use up here, but got a fair bit of use in the UK.

    The favourite daughter wants one of the bigarse flags if we win it. I may have to give in.

  36. “we have lost the chance to achieve constitutional recognition for Indigenous peoples for another few decades”

    I’m more worried about the chance to achieve better outcomes for Indigenous people in health, education, not being incarcerated and not being discriminated against.

    Constitutional recognition on its own would do nothing but let people give themselves a pat on the back and avoid doing anything substantive. It would be easy to get done for that reason and Dutton would probably propose it himself if woe betide he gets back into government.

  37. From Jacinta Price’s website:

    “Together we can take on Canberra’s woke elites and bring REAL solutions to tough problems.

    Are you sick and tired of the ‘same old’ when it comes to the people that we send to Canberra to represent us? Have you had enough of the woke virtue-signalling elites telling us how to run our lives?

    It’s time to put a rocket up ‘em and bring REAL solutions to tough problems. Australia needs a voice for common sense in our parliament.”
    https://www.jacintaprice.com/backing-jacinta

    The Spirit of Australia – the lying kangaroo.

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