We should be due for the monthly Resolve Strategic poll next week, followed shortly by a New South Wales state result, and there’s no telling when something might pop up on the Indigenous Voice front. For the time being, there is the following news to relate:
• Two reports on RedBridge Group polls in the News Corp papers today, one showing the Indigenous Voice headed for a 61-39 defeat nationally after the exclusion of 15% persistently undecided, the other putting the LNP ahead 55-45 on state voting intention in Queensland. Primary votes in the latter case were LNP 41%, Labor 26% and Greens 14% (UPDATE: Further detail from the ABC). The former poll was conducted at some point following Anthony Albanese’s announcement of the October 14 date the Thursday before last, the latter was conducted August 26 to September 6 from a sample of 2012.
• New South Wales Liberal Senator Marise Payne has announced she will retire from parliament on September 30. Two names are dominating speculation about the vacancy: Nyunggai Warren Mundine, presently enjoying an elevated profile as a public face of the Indigenous Voice no campaign, and Andrew Constance, former state government minister and narrowly unsuccessful candidate for Gilmore at the May 2022 election. Liberal sources said Mundine would enjoy strong support from conservatives and Alex Hawke’s centre right, and would “even peel off moderate voices”. The Australian further reports Catholic Schools NSW chief executive Dallas McInerney could again be in a preselection mix, although some doubted he was “a realistic candidate, particularly given his affiliation to the ‘imploded’ Perrottet/Tudehope right faction”. Further possibilities named by the Sydney Morning Herald are “former RSL head James Brown and Jess Collins”.
• Liberal sources cited by Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian say it is now considered unlikely that Scott Morrison will vacate his seat of Cook before the next election. Cook is a notable exclusion from the list of seats where the New South Wales Liberals are proceeding to preselection, together with Mackellar, where it is speculated that the way is being left open for an attempted comeback by Jason Falinski. An imminent preselection would present an obstacle to Falinksi given his present role as state party president.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Clarence mayor Brendan Blomeley and Hobart alderman Simon Behrakis will seek preselection for the two winnable positions on the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket. This involves challenging incumbents Richard Colbeck and Claire Chandler, though Behrakis “is understood to be content with the No. 3 spot, should party preselectors prefer to favour the two incumbents”. Both prospective challengers are conservatives, but Behrakis is associated with Senator Jonathan Duniam and Blomeley with rival powerbroker Eric Abetz. The issue will be decided by the party’s 67-member preselection committee on November 25.
• Shane Wright of the Age/Herald made the case last week for an enlarged parliament, a subject that appears likely to be addressed when the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters completes its two-stage inquiry into the 2022 election. A motion carried at Labor’s recent national conference calling for the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory to go from two Senators to six prompted opposition Senate leader Simon Birmingham to call for the government to rule out changes to the parliament or electoral system before the next election.
Based on present polling I expect that those who voted against the voice will be feeling very satisfied while those who voted for it will be wondering how it could all have gone so terribly wrong after such a promising start.
To me it was always a risky strategy to, in effect, ask the people to sign a blank cheque, while reassuring them that it will all work out well in the end. Far better to have legislated the voice first to let them see it in operation and if it all went well, then do the referendum. (Or alternatively, as some have suggested, to have limited the referendum to recognition of the first nations people in the constitution, which would probably have passed easily IMO, and then legislate the voice).
It’s been all cart before the horse stuff and it now looks as if it is going to set the matter of reconciliation back much further than it really should have taken.
Oakeshott Country
I think you’re probably wrong – Geoff Clark is opposed to the Voice. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/former-atsic-chief-geoff-clark-joins-chorus-against-indigenous-voice/news-story/15f37c5d019dce1a0586d6c33d3867b9?amp
Bystander,
I honestly don’t think that the Voice could have been legislated first, before referendum. The Coalition would never have voted for it (they’d find a reason), and The Greens wouldn’t because they would want Treaty first, would want to wedge the government, or it wouldn’t have been perfect enough for them.
Evan @ #82 Saturday, September 9th, 2023 – 11:59 am
Don’t worry, we’ve always got people like you to keep pointing it out.
You seem to have all the answers, Evan, and no solutions. 😐
However, this just adds to the ambiguity of the Yes case – is this a major change or isn’t it?
———————————
there is no ambiguity
Yes, changing the constitution is a big change (by definition). As far as restricting the ability of the government of the day to govern as they see fit, little change. No, this change has no or very little deleterious effect on Australia other than the cost to set up and maintain a functioning and accountable and meaningful consultative body (although one may argue this is a good money saving investment). Yes, if used wisely by future government of the day (and I reckon they all will), the change offers a fresh start and hope to future policy effecting indigenous Australia. In other words; it is a big change with no risk, little skin of anyones noses and good reason to believe it will make a big positive difference to all Australia. are peeps getting a “win win” confused with “ambiguity”.
The ambiguity is in the No side. Those that say the Voice goes too far so we should just settle for symbolic constitutional change. then – the voice doesn’t go far enough and won’t make on the ground difference.
There are reasons to examine this change critically. Constitutional change demands it. But don’t get bogged down in the deliberately sown weeds. There are shoots of wildflower everywhere.
Cost, accountability, defunding protections, types of legal problems that might arise, extent of types of policy that may require consultation….. even if those questions involve going into future legislation detail. All worth considering. You could argue (I wouldn’t agree for a couple of reasons) that another Q/criticism is ‘did this referendum Q have a chance with the electorate?’.
“Or alternatively, as some have suggested, to have limited the referendum to recognition of the first nations people in the constitution”
All that had to done for it to get up.
As soon as Albanese caved to the 2nd sentence the voice was doomed.
The picture of Langton pointing her finger and giving Albanese in what looked liked a tongue lashing with with Albanese head bowed. It said it all, that is why the photo is used so much. People just said “Nah not having that”
Some people will dig around in the weeds for any reason to justify their No vote.
US WILL SEND ATACMS LONG RANGE MISSILES TO UKRAINE: ABC NEWS (US)
“The Biden administration is likely to send Ukraine long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, to help in its fight to repel the Russian invasion of its territory, according to U.S. officials.
“They are coming,” said one official who had access to security assistance plans. The official noted that, as always, such plans are subject to change until officially announced.
A second official said the missiles are “on the table” and likely to be included in an upcoming security assistance package, adding that a final decision has not been made. It could be months before Ukraine receives the missiles, according to the official.
With a range of up to 190 miles
, depending on the version, deploying ATACMS could allow Ukraine to reach targets nearly four times further away than with the currently-provided rockets for its U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and M270 multiple-launch rocket systems.”
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-send-long-range-atacms-missiles-ukraine-time/story?id=103031722
Assuming this goes ahead, it will be well past time they should have. How many Ukrainian civilians have died in the meantime.
Those numbers make it very difficult now for Anna P.
Melbourne underworld hit in a cafe this morning. All the hallmarks of a professional job. The underworld figure assassinated Gavin ‘Capable’ Preston, was recently released from prison.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 1:26 pm
…Queensland. Primary votes in the latter case were LNP 41%, Labor 26% and Greens 14%.
Those numbers make it very difficult now for Anna P.
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Yes, but as the saying goes week in politics is a long time , when the election is over a year away its eternity of time for things to change in politics
Some interesting things to think about:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/02/opinion/cosmology-crisis-webb-telescope.html?unlocked_article_code=z8FQALSEfiitoA8u2HV_IvRNsA8hZG6d7zz0hXiSOkkn96ES4vHF-Ho4flPR9Tgu1ecuc85RLUXD4Nkyozyeo4F5e2vDWyGPIs7oXs5g1cK95bQbx__Gd25Fz1zsAr7BRPX6_DE-pu9Y9ty-1MmETkYUFwMcgEEHn2qiFRz9GxdWvX6LGzT9l-z0rdA2mS1aX1qpTDuwvAD6SZXTNSBoI8wdoPul2nGKRt-W8em_MPdFccfqcV_r3rapiDhqGGqWgitrSLta72iZ-NpfFVns2ZGk-dTfUStatJsdqtLRsqejFi8l46bIVQhPpdvjb5lAQCbLqofkV-9g7zWmLZdW7PqQ4jEFc2a9_A&smid=url-share&utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=12350357f0-briefing-dy-20230908&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-12350357f0-47202700
On the topic of Elon Musk:
https://www.thenation.com/article/society/elon-musk-threat-democracy/
@Lars: “We are where we are I guess – sad that any sort of change will probably depend on the millennial generation displacing Gen X and Y.”
The millennials and Gen Y are the same thing.
Also it is a sick joke for you to bemoan a lack of change while cheerleading for Dutton.
Spent an hour and a half listening to Michael Long, Nova Peris, Uncle Hewitt Whyman and Aunty Mary Atkinson in Wagga last night.
Australia is a hard country made up of many men and women with hard hearts. A change that will have no effect on 90% of lives but the act of just being listened to will positively impact theirs (their words).
Dutton may win but at the cost of a better Australia and 60% plus of under 50’s disillusioned (on current polling). That is a legacy I’ll spend the rest of my life promoting if Yes doesn’t win.
John Howard won’t know the rage that will be maintained..
Ukrainian counteroffensive progress over the past 14 days (26 Aug – 8 Sep):
Territory liberated: 51.0 sq km (3.6 sq km per day)
Russian invaders eliminated: 7,910 (565 per day)
Russian tanks eliminated: 151 (10.8 per day)
Russian armoured combat vehicles eliminated: 205 (14.6 per day)
Russian artillery systems eliminated: 392 (28.0 per day)
https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/49.3283/37.9732
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/25/7417025/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/8/7418930/
Steelydan says:
Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 1:15 pm
“Or alternatively, as some have suggested, to have limited the referendum to recognition of the first nations people in the constitution”
All that had to done for it to get up.
As soon as Albanese caved to the 2nd sentence the voice was doomed.
________________________________________
The problem is that a meaningless and trite recognition clause is wanted by nobody indigenous – not even Price and Mundine!
Yet another non-indigenous imposition on indigenous Australians by people who think they know better than the indigenous people who asked for a Voice.
Worse in your case because you clearly don’t give a shit about the indigenous people of this country, other than to impose your white military you know best on them.
We’ll never get a poll, but it’s intriguing to ponder the breakdown of the 61% NO respondents reasoning, whether it be white supremacist racist undertones or lack of effective communication from the YES side or something else.
@C@t: “Bystander,
I honestly don’t think that the Voice could have been legislated first, before referendum. The Coalition would never have voted for it (they’d find a reason), and The Greens wouldn’t because they would want Treaty first, would want to wedge the government, or it wouldn’t have been perfect enough for them.”
I think the Greens would have come under severe pressure to do it after initially vacillating like they did with support for the referendum. As soon as they got the survey of actual Greens voters back, basically.
I think with either hindsight or for that matter foresight this would be a more likely way to get it through – put it in operation, let people see it in operation then referendum to lock it in.
I think the early polls on the Voice have a lot to answer for in terms of convincing the powers that be that doing the referendum this way in the face of all recent Australian history on referenda would succeed.
If the early polling said “this will be pushing shit uphill” as I always thought would actually be the case (with my well documented distrust of issues polling and outright disbelief that Voice support could be anywhere near marriage quality’s Yes), maybe Albo could have gone to the Indigenous elders and said “look, the referendum won’t fly, let’s try doing it by legislation first” and got cover that way.
Note – I don’t think switching to Julian Leeser’s wording or any fiddling like that would have made any difference.
Rex Douglas @ #109 Saturday, September 9th, 2023 – 12:56 pm
Yeah, especially as we are starting to get the talk of dissatisfaction among the ranks. Don’t know if that’s enough to finish her, or whether she’ll stay but it’s clearly not just wishful chatter by the conservative media. But it would not surprise me if she decides that eight and a half years is long enough soon.
Yabba, I remember the regular interviews John Doyle had with a physicist on his ANC radio show – some 30 years ago. Doyle was highly critical of the ideas of dark matter and dark energy ‘you’re just making it up to fit things in that don’t fit’. It was said and received in good spirit and often hilarious. Nobody should consent to being interviewed by Doyle without having a good sense of humour.
The scenes and impact of the incident last night in the Melbourne CBD will send a shudder through all Victorians, once again. So senseless.
While I believe that much of the No vote will be composed of the confused and apathetic, and that part of it will be people dissatisfied with the proposed solution (naively believing another shot will easily happen), if you were to judge it from its loudest advocates on here, you’d easily believe it’s 100% a white grievance movement.
Wat Tyler,
If you’re referring to me wrt thinking it’s all about a White Grievance movement, then fyhi I was simply responding to Jeremy C.Browne. Everyone else who wants to vote No, have their own reasons. And I even expect some here who are a soft Yes, once they are in a voting booth will actually vote No as well.
It’s strange that we seem to have stable ten yearish State governments (QLD, NSW, VIC) but federally our longest serving leader since Howard is ScoMo with 3yrs 9months and mostly around the 3 year mark.
The Albo re-set will be critical in this regard.
Lars Von Trier @ #125 Saturday, September 9th, 2023 – 2:04 pm
I’d prefer a Chalmers reset.
Never thought I’d say that a couple of yrs ago.
The irony is there are reasons to change a leader (QLD – is sort of why not try if you’re going to lose anyway) and not to change a leader.
In the ALP’s case there is no way they will change leader because of what happened with RGR even if it is a good idea.
Arguably the Liberals got 3 terms off the back of changing leaders, maybe modern politics means a leader has a shelf life of about 3 years.
It is now a week since the date was announced but where are the campaign ads. The yes campaign has no money or no strategy.
Yes
On review Clark was at Uluṟu but was among those who left before the statement
C@tmomma @ #124 Saturday, September 9th, 2023 – 1:30 pm
I was not referring to you, I was referring to the vocal No supporters on here.
Wat Tyler @ #130 Saturday, September 9th, 2023 – 2:15 pm
Okay, thank you for the clarification. A lot gets lost in translation around social media.
C@tmomma @ #131 Saturday, September 9th, 2023 – 1:47 pm
I probably could have worded it a little clearer TBH
Logged onto Facebook (rarely on the site anymore – I just occasionally check-in) and the first thing I saw was a Yes ad. It’s not bad, although a little bit preaching to the converted (but that might just be targeted at me or what the algorithm thinks is me) but it did include the one line that swings me to Yes without doubt, that an overwhelming majority (I have seen other sources corroborate this) of Indigenous people support the Yes side. Which to me is enough of a reason.
Lars Von Trier says:
Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 2:04 pm
It’s strange that we seem to have stable ten yearish State governments (QLD, NSW, VIC) but federally our longest serving leader since Howard is ScoMo with 3yrs 9months and mostly around the 3 year mark.
The Albo re-set will be critical in this regard.
——————————————–
In the last 10 years
The shortest term as prime minster has been Tony Abbott under 2 years as prime minister
I am sure it’s true a majority of the indigenous population support yes. Between Price, Mundine and Thorpe there would be a lot of people who would not believe that to be the case.
An absolutely appalling tragedy in Morocco:
“A powerful earthquake centred in Morocco’s High Atlas mountains killed hundreds of people, the government said, as collapsed buildings and people fled their shuddering homes in several cities.
Residents of Marrakech, the nearest major city to the epicentre, said some buildings had collapsed in the old city, a Unesco world heritage site, and local television showed pictures of a fallen mosque minaret with rubble lying on smashed cars after the quake struck at 11.11pm on Friday.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/09/morocco-earthquake-leaves-panicked-people-sleeping-in-street-reports
This referendum isn’t about if Aboriginal people support the voice but if the voice should be permanently in the constitution.
The irony is there are reasons to change a leader (QLD – is sort of why not try if you’re going to lose anyway) and not to change a leader.
In the ALP’s case there is no way they will change leader because of what happened with RGR even if it is a good idea.
Arguably the Liberals got 3 terms off the back of changing leaders, maybe modern politics means a leader has a shelf life of about 3 years.
@Lars Von Trier
Annastacia Palaszczuk leaving is not much different to Bob Carr, Mike Rann, and Peter Beattie moving on for succession plans. Beattie though would of won the 2009 election though as he had a 22 seat majority.
If Palaszczuk moves on it won’t be compared to the RGR years. She has been premier of Queensland for 8 and a half years. Queensland state Labor in terms of leadership stability have been superior to anyone in the country since the late eighties.
The biggest federal and still ongoing political rivalry from the same political party goes to Abbott and Turnbull
Leadership challenges
policies differences cause public riffs between the two
Also
Republic referendum
Same sex plebiscite
The voice referendum
Not good for the Voice, Qld is annihilation. A mess. Don’t people understand?
Yes I agree PNWM. Sorry if my earlier post wasn’t clear re State QLD.
Politcal Nightwatchman says:
Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 2:46 pm
Arguably the Liberals got 3 terms off the back of changing leaders, maybe modern politics means a leader has a shelf life of about 3 years.
————————-
under 2 and 3 years
Abbott and Turnbull prime ministership both shorter than Rudd and Gillard
At federal level, I think the Labor ‘left’ is dead. The philosophy doesn’t really exist anymore, given the current right wing policy settings endorsed and defended by Albo, Tanya, Penny, etc.
Chalmers is from the right, but I think even he sees the need to sort out tax policy and rein in tax breaks and subsidies. The difference is that, unlike Albo, he has the political skills to stand up to Murdoch and co and effectively sell the changes that are desperately needed.
Liberal Party in opposition changes leaders quicker than they did in Government
The question on why Bourke street can’t be better protect is simply. The trams have to get through and the low-rise accessibility tram stops don’t offer much protection. The curb is only about 15cms and a car can easily jump that.
But that incident could have happened on almost any street. If Bourke street had barriers it would have happened somewhere else. Not everywhere can be protected.
From the sounds of it, the driver is having a mental episode. He was described by the police as a “cleanskin” which means no record of interaction with police. Although I do think the Vic Police perhaps should drop the wine references.
Albo miscalculated badly on his decision to put the Voice as a constitutional lock in.
He did it to make it his Rudd sorry day.
But he played politics from day one. He was too shifty on the Uluṟu statement and its constitutional consequence.
Now, it will come back and hit him hard. The polls will gradually move away. They will put the Liberals as a chance. The commentary will turn.
Then it becomes Jim Chalmers moment. He’s the most impressive politician in that big house on the hill.
He will only get one clean crack at it. Take it, Jim.
A man who carried zip-ties on him while during the Jan. 6, 2021, riot on the Capitol was sentenced to almost five years in prison Friday, according to the Justice Department. Eric Munchel, 32, and his mother, Lisa Marie Eisenhart, 57 were both sentenced by U.S. District Court Judge Royce Lamberth on Friday for “felony and misdemeanor charges related to their actions” during the insurrection.
“Munchel and Eisenhart were both convicted of conspiracy to commit obstruction and obstruction of an official proceeding, both felonies, as well as entering and remaining in a gallery of Congress, disorderly and disruptive conduct in a Capitol building, and parading, demonstrating, or picketing in a Capitol building on April 19, 2023, following a stipulated bench trial before Judge Lamberth,” the DOJ release said. Munchel, dubbed the “Zip Tie Guy,” was found guilty of two more felonies than his mother. These included disorderly or disruptive conduct in a restricted building or grounds with a deadly or dangerous weapon and unauthorized possession of a deadly or dangerous weapon on Capitol grounds.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 2:45 pm
This referendum isn’t about if Aboriginal people support the voice but if the voice should be permanently in the constitution.
_______________________________________
Absolutely. So why have there been so many more posts about why things could have been done differently by proponents and especially the Prime Minister, rather than about the merits of the question (which includes the fact that the vast majority of indigenous leaders support the Voice in the Constitution as an argument in favour).
At least the revolting Jeremy C Browne is actually arguing the “no” case rather than bleating about how the campaign was run!
Revision No 2
Geoff Clark was at Uluru and, despite now opposing the statement and giving support to those who left, signed it.
The art work around the statement includes his signature together with those of all the other signatories. It can be found here.
https://ulurustatement.org/the-statement/statement-interactive/
The Voice is purposefully designed so that “it wouldn’t have mattered”. It’s Parliament’s prerogative to listen or not. This gets to the heart of why the proposal is doomed. It promises to do something that it is designed not to do. It promises to change things without actually changing anything. Proponents are trying to have it both ways, the public sees through it, and the scale of the defeat is going to be one-of-a-kind humiliation for the well-meaning ALP dopes responsible.
(I’ll be in the minority voting Yes)