We should be due for the monthly Resolve Strategic poll next week, followed shortly by a New South Wales state result, and there’s no telling when something might pop up on the Indigenous Voice front. For the time being, there is the following news to relate:
• Two reports on RedBridge Group polls in the News Corp papers today, one showing the Indigenous Voice headed for a 61-39 defeat nationally after the exclusion of 15% persistently undecided, the other putting the LNP ahead 55-45 on state voting intention in Queensland. Primary votes in the latter case were LNP 41%, Labor 26% and Greens 14% (UPDATE: Further detail from the ABC). The former poll was conducted at some point following Anthony Albanese’s announcement of the October 14 date the Thursday before last, the latter was conducted August 26 to September 6 from a sample of 2012.
• New South Wales Liberal Senator Marise Payne has announced she will retire from parliament on September 30. Two names are dominating speculation about the vacancy: Nyunggai Warren Mundine, presently enjoying an elevated profile as a public face of the Indigenous Voice no campaign, and Andrew Constance, former state government minister and narrowly unsuccessful candidate for Gilmore at the May 2022 election. Liberal sources said Mundine would enjoy strong support from conservatives and Alex Hawke’s centre right, and would “even peel off moderate voices”. The Australian further reports Catholic Schools NSW chief executive Dallas McInerney could again be in a preselection mix, although some doubted he was “a realistic candidate, particularly given his affiliation to the ‘imploded’ Perrottet/Tudehope right faction”. Further possibilities named by the Sydney Morning Herald are “former RSL head James Brown and Jess Collins”.
• Liberal sources cited by Alexi Demetriadi of The Australian say it is now considered unlikely that Scott Morrison will vacate his seat of Cook before the next election. Cook is a notable exclusion from the list of seats where the New South Wales Liberals are proceeding to preselection, together with Mackellar, where it is speculated that the way is being left open for an attempted comeback by Jason Falinski. An imminent preselection would present an obstacle to Falinksi given his present role as state party president.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Clarence mayor Brendan Blomeley and Hobart alderman Simon Behrakis will seek preselection for the two winnable positions on the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket. This involves challenging incumbents Richard Colbeck and Claire Chandler, though Behrakis “is understood to be content with the No. 3 spot, should party preselectors prefer to favour the two incumbents”. Both prospective challengers are conservatives, but Behrakis is associated with Senator Jonathan Duniam and Blomeley with rival powerbroker Eric Abetz. The issue will be decided by the party’s 67-member preselection committee on November 25.
• Shane Wright of the Age/Herald made the case last week for an enlarged parliament, a subject that appears likely to be addressed when the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters completes its two-stage inquiry into the 2022 election. A motion carried at Labor’s recent national conference calling for the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory to go from two Senators to six prompted opposition Senate leader Simon Birmingham to call for the government to rule out changes to the parliament or electoral system before the next election.
‘S. Simpson says:
Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 4:14 pm
Lol, another Latika Bourke classic. In my opinion one of the most talentless “journalists” in the MSM. Apparently from some gig in London when she isn’t on her personal social media Bourke is also a China expert. Talentless, boring and pure propaganda. Bourke is the Australian MSM rolled into one.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/no-hope-china-will-rejoin-the-world-top-beijing-based-businessman-says-20230904-p5e1yp.html‘
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The core question here is not Bourke’s talents but whether anyone can influence Xi not to pursue his aggressive foreign policy or any other policy, for that matter.
In Australia anyone can say pretty well anything they like about our political leadership.
In China, not so.
Not getting good advice because people are too frightened to give it has been a systemic governance problem for the stability of murderously megalomaniacal regimes throughout history.
There is increasing evidence, for example through the Covid pandemic, that Xi was not getting advice that he does not want to hear.
There are other examples of erratic behaviour. Wang’s appointment sandwiches the wolf warrior period. The no shows at the G20 and at the speech he was due to give in South Africa. The very strange suggestion to 10 million Chinese graduates that they back and work on the farm.
Anti Democratic Voting
From the ultimate Liberal dissembler … 2005..
Voluntary voting will become official Coalition policy for the next election under plans to be promoted by a trusted confidant of Prime Minister John Howard.
Finance Minister and senior cabinet strategist Nick Minchin told The Sun-Herald that the current system of compulsory voting was undemocratic and should be dumped.
Regarding compulsory voting. There is usually at least one idiot at a polling booth that insists on throwing their ballot paper in the bin rather than stick it in the ballot box. Just ensures that late at night when the polling staff just want to go home they have to do recount of the ballot papers in an attempt to get them to balance.
And from many years observation of counts, you can expect one penis for every 1,000 votes lodged at that booth.
Knights v Raiders shaping up as best match of the weekend.
Even, though the Raiders have had the best of possession.
Knights defence outstanding.
Cracker game so far.
>Incorrect. Grover Cleveland did so in 1892, after losing in 1888.
Ah. Wikipedia article has him as 22 and 24 instead on just 22. That is how I missed him
Wat Tyler
Incorrect. Grover Cleveland did so in 1892, after losing in 1888.
Indeed. Cleveland won the popular vote in 1888. Then, as now, that means absolutely nothing.
Cleveland was one of only two Democrats who were elected president from 1861-1933, a period dominated by the Republicans. (The other was Woodrow Wilson.) Thank goodness times have changed. But both parties (Democrats and Republicans) are now almost totally different to what they stood for back then.
And Wilson only won because Teddy Roosevelt split the Republicans
Hopefully Newcastle win or we may see a Star Hotel situation.
The crowd seems somewhat agitated
BTW, my correction was just a pedantic factual correction. I don’t agree with the assessment that Biden is doomed. I still stand by my assessment that, if I had to put a number on it, he’s at about a 60-70% chance of re-election. Which is not “in the bag” by any means but is not something for Democrats to panic about and resort to drafting a state governor, or instead nominate a high profile antivaxxer or woo-peddling loon (who has the backing of the extremely online left because she once said one of their shibboleths and they’re painfully easy to grift like that.)
What a load of crap ..!
Ah yes, how dare I support a progressive. I should do the centrist thing and support candidates who don’t change anything for the better.
Bernie Sanders won the first three contests in the 2020 nomination process. It was only after centrist candidates dropped out and endorsed Biden than Biden was able to win. Had the Democratic party nominated Sanders they would be in a much stronger position today. It’s not surprising that corrupt corporate interests do everything in their power to stop a progressive from being nominated.
Get in the bin ..!
I think the Knights are running on empty Oakeshott Country. Raiders have had a mountain of possession.
Might be a different matter in the second half with the wind at their back.
Putin is gonna be let off the hook.
Nicholas @ #509 Sunday, September 10th, 2023 – 4:55 pm
😆 😆 😆
Nicholas, attempting to rewrite history, won’t make it so.
The Democrats realised, that after Bernie Sanders early success in the Primaries, in much the same way that Trump has the extreme partisans in the Republican Primaries to support him to the nomination, the ‘centrists’ as you are derisively with a snort attempting to denigrate them, realised that they were splitting the vote, so they got together and decided who was the candidate that would perform the most successfully against Donald Trump in the general election. And it wasn’t Bernie Sanders. And they were correct. It was the former Vice President.
You might say that things would have been better, but who are you that knows the American electorate better than the professionals in America? Just some know-it-all know nothing dweeb in Kenmore, Queensland, Australia.
Wat Tyler @ #507 Sunday, September 10th, 2023 – 4:45 pm
Exactly.
And I would be more worried about the No Labels candidates being able to do a Ralph Nader and carve off enough votes to hand the election to Donald Trump than anything else.
Oakeshott Country
And Wilson only won because Teddy Roosevelt split the Republicans
Yes! The Democrat Party was in awful shape in the long decades between the Civil War and the Great Depression.
To quote that late, great philosopher The Moose, it’s a game of 2 halves.
🙂
Well, they were the slave party. So tough.
Catprog says:
Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 4:19 pm
All the people looking at history to day Biden can’t win from here.
Nobody has won the US presidency after losing office either.
__________________________________________________________
Not quite Catprog. Democrat Grover Cleveland was elected US president in 1884, was defeated in the 1888 election, but elected to a second term in 1892. Cleveland is the only US president to have two non-consecutive terms, making him the 22nd and 24th president.
As for Biden polling low atm, according to Chas Licciardello on ABC TV’s Planet America, it is not unusual for incumbent presidents to poll poorly at the three-year stage of their terms. Chas also said that Barack Obama was polling just as poorly, one year before he was reelected in 2012.
It’s also worth noting that although Trump’s growing legal troubles seem to be shoring up his base among Republican voters, they are not likely to be winning him much support among independent voters. To win, Trump needs to convince enough independents to switch from Biden to him.
Update: I see you corrected your mistake Catprog. Apologies for my correction.
I thought you were going to cite the Moose’s other quote.
“I am sick and tired of having male genitalia shoved down my throat”
Well, there was something close to someones mouth…
😉
Set for a grandstand finish.
K 18-16 R
And as I type the Knights cross again.
Nicholas
Bernie Sanders won the first three contests in the 2020 nomination process.
Being popular with the Democratic base (or parts of it – the base is not monolithic) does not necessarily make one popular with the US electorate at large.
On the other side, it is worth noting that most MAGA-aligned Republicans absolutely bombed in last year’s mid-terms.
A seriously good game and the biting allegation seems to have been the tipping point
What Wat said.
How can you bite someone with a mouthguard in?
It’s hard to believe the Knights have crossed 3 times since half time.
They were dead on their feet at the end of the first half.
And agreed, bitegate seems to have been the catalyst.
And number 4!
Not forgetting that Abe Simpson was spanked by Grover Cleveland on two non-consecutive occasions.
Shirley the Raiders can’t come back from here.
Ricky Stuart will not be his good-natured self at the post-match interview if the Raiders lose.
I don’t think Ricky will have too much to complain about BK. The Raiders have shot themselves in the foot with ill discipline.
And right on cue the Raiders score.
Aqualung
I was sarcastically referring to his usual whingeing at the pressers.
Nicholas threw the following spoiled tantrum @ #511 Sunday, September 10th, 2023 – 4:25 pm
1. I was referring to your aggressive, condescending predictions. I do not give a shit about whom you “supported”
2. I’m sorry your idol was denied the coronation you believed he was entitled to by divine right.
No worries BK
🙂
Cleveland had an illegitimate child and Republicans at his rallies chanted “Ma, Ma, Where’s my Pa?”
The Democrats responded “Going to the White House, Ha, Ha, Ha”
Oakeshott Country
Well, they were the slave party. So tough.
I do not disagree. After the Second World War, the Civil Rights movement tore the Democratic Party apart, and the party abandoned its support for segregation.
After the dust had settled, African Americans switched en masse from the Republicans to the Democrats, and Southern Conservatives headed in droves in the opposite direction.
Golden point?
I’m flabbergasted
F### me
Field goal time
BK says:
Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 5:45 pm
Aqualung
I was sarcastically referring to his usual whingeing at the pressers.
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Yes BK,Ricky Stuart will find a way to claim he didn’t have the quality players to follow his game plan
5 minutes each way apparently then golden point
Doh
5 mins each way for the finals now , then golden point if no winner
Aqualung says:
Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 6:03 pm
5 minutes each way apparently then extra time
———
Changed to that last year or this year
It is even live in Melbourne delaying Nine News.
There is probably some logic in going for a field goal early. An early field goal means the other side has to score.
B.S. Fairman says:
Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 6:05 pm
It is even live in Melbourne delaying Nine News.
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Yes I don’t understand anything but people seem excited.
Bloody hell – what a game!
Great game
speaking of povqacations laz who is going to replace marise payne whoe can join her partner stuart ayres in retirement hopefuly that
speaking of retirements i think its abbout time that so called moderit Warrin entsch whoe has been in parliament on and off since 1996 and has spent most of that time on the back bench maybi he can confirm the worst kept secrit and hand over to trent twomey aparently he promised twomey theseat when he retires entch promised to retire the last three elections but has changed his mind at last minute maybi broadbent can also go and barnabey joice and mckormack