Aside from developments in the Indigenous Voice referendum, covered in the post above, there are two developments to relate on the federal preselection front:
• Samantha Maiden at news.com.au reports Liberal deputy leader Sussan Ley will be spared a preselection challenge in her seat of Farrer after her challenger, Jean Haynes, was rejected by the party’s nomination review committee and suspended from the party for 90 days. The reasons behind this are unclear, but it comes after “a tit for tat round of expulsion motions in the Deniliquin branch of the party” that “included attempts to expel a group of party veterans who are loyal supporters of Sussan Ley, some of whom are women in the 70s and 80s who have given up to 50 years of service to the party”. Christian Ellis, who sought to challenge Ley’s preselection before the last election, has been expelled for bringing the party into disrepute shortly after pleading guilty to a firearm charge, with no conviction recorded. Contrary to other reports, Maiden relates that Ley “was expected to trounce challenger Haynes with over 70 per cent of the vote”.
• Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports that Victorian Liberal Senator Jane Hume has abandoned a short-lived bid to elevate herself from second to first place on the Coalition ticket at the next election, amid conservative threats of retaliation by backing Greg Mirabella to take second position, potentially reducing Hume to third. Mirabella has recently relinquished his position as the party’s state president to pursue the third position, from which he unsuccessfully sought re-election last year. As Paul Sakkal of The Age described it, Hume’s move “pits her moderate wing against the Victorian Right faction led by figures including Paterson and lower house MP Michael Sukkar”. Hume owed her second position at the 2019 election to intervention by Scott Morrison that saw off conservative-backed challenger Karina Okotel.
”Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 5:29 pm
The no campaign has been aggressive but the yes campaign should have expected it and been ready to counter it but instead it has run a nothing campaign.
—————————————
‘Aggressive’?
I am curious about this. How would Mexicanbeemer counter a large number of social media campaigns, mostly out of sight, that are basically running on the lie and run FUD model?
Just done a rather long interview with ERMS on Voice issues. Not sure who they were polling for. National coverage. Generally straight Qs or statements seeking a positive or negative responses.
There is an excellent article by Henry Reynolds on history of Voice and Treaty discussions between Commonwealth Govts and indigenous people on Voice. Fascinating details about involvement of Liberal/conservative politicians including Fred Chaney and Tony Abbott and the various bodies set up to promote the issues over the years. Really puts people like Dutton in the picture as either ignorant or mischievous historical denialists in the current debate.
https://johnmenadue.com/the-voice-walking-with-the-australian-people-for-a-better-future-part-1/
Dutton?
Nothing is off the table. Nothing.
Boerwar says:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 5:35 pm
“Dutton?
Nothing is off the table. Nothing.”
I think a sensible shift to a constructive and consensus view by PloD can safely be ruled out.
Boerwarsays:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 5:33 pm
”Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 5:29 pm
The no campaign has been aggressive but the yes campaign should have expected it and been ready to counter it but instead it has run a nothing campaign.
—————————————
‘Aggressive’?
I am curious about this. How would Mexicanbeemer counter a large number of social media campaigns, mostly out of sight, that are basically running on the lie and run FUD model?
—————————
Would start by getting the story straight because watching Linda Burney in parliament has been painful. The opposition has asked Burney basic silly questions that she should smashed out of the park but she has fluffed it.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 5:38 pm
Boerwarsays:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 5:33 pm
”Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 5:29 pm
The no campaign has been aggressive but the yes campaign should have expected it and been ready to counter it but instead it has run a nothing campaign.
—————————————
‘Aggressive’?
I am curious about this. How would Mexicanbeemer counter a large number of social media campaigns, mostly out of sight, that are basically running on the lie and run FUD model?
—————————
I would start by getting the story straight because watching Linda Burney in parliament has been painful. The opposition has asked Burney basic silly questions that she should smashed out of the park but she has fluffed it.
======================
uh huh. Not one Australian in ten thousands listens to QT. How would you handle the social media where, IMO, the real damage is done? How would you counter Price, Thorpe and Mundine? How would you counter the casual lying by Dutton and al and an MSM that is, at best, out of its depth and at worst complicit?
Over to you.
About 6 minutes in, Denys talks about the Australian cardboard drones…
https://youtu.be/KaMwXCqqv-o?si=x2ap8MjcvPtnjW1p
Boerwarsays:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 5:33 pm
”Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 5:29 pm
The no campaign has been aggressive but the yes campaign should have expected it and been ready to counter it but instead it has run a nothing campaign.
—————————————
‘Aggressive’?
I am curious about this. How would Mexicanbeemer counter a large number of social media campaigns, mostly out of sight, that are basically running on the lie and run FUD model?
—————————
I would start by getting the story straight because watching Linda Burney in parliament has been painful. The opposition has asked Burney basic silly questions that she should smashed out of the park but she has fluffed it.
======================
uh huh. Not one Australian in ten thousands listens to QT. How would you handle the social media where, IMO, the real damage is done? How would you counter Price, Thorpe and Mundine? How would you counter the casual lying by Dutton and al and an MSM that is, at best, out of its depth and at worst complicit?
Over to you.
————-
People don’t watch QT but it sets the tone of the debate and much of what has circulated on social media has been attacking Burney and the government’s answers in QT.
Pretend it doesn’t exist. Got it.
Well I don’t really know how stooges are so certain that the government won’t legislate for a voice. I mean every government in living memory has created some kind of representative body. What is the government going to do after the Ref fails? Just ignore indigenous representation. But I lack the certainty of Stooge mental prescience.
Imagine thinking there was anything to be gained by engaging with that.
https://x.com/davidshoebridge/status/1695928857789178251?s=12: ‘… Albo’ in Rio gear
Lengthy thread, 🙂
You know what gear I never see David Shoebridge in? Yes23 gear. In fact, can anyone point me to anything over the past six months that Shoebridge has said in support of the voice? I think he said something in the parliament a few months ago, but since then… silence.
You know what’s funny? Rio Tinto has provided more public support for the voice referendum than the greens political party has.
https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/trending-topics/voice-to-parliament
Boerwar
I am not sure about the lithium fire statistics or the possible policy implications.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/27/firefighters-fear-being-overwhelmed-by-rise-in-battery-fires-after-fatal-sydney-blaze
——————-
Yep, cheap batteries and batteries left unattended (or overnight) are the real problems people need educating about.
Possible lithium battery fire on the Freemantle Highway. No, not that one. The other one.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/26/cargo-ship-fire-off-dutch-coast
nath
Well I don’t really know how stooges are so certain that the government won’t legislate for a voice. I mean every government in living memory has created some kind of representative body. What is the government going to do after the Ref fails? Just ignore indigenous representation. But I lack the certainty of Stooge mental prescience.
Yes perhaps you are right. I bow to your wisdom. After the Voice referendum fails, the government will proclaim “Fuck you, we are going to legislate a Voice anyway”. Everyone will be totally okay with that – including the LNP and the Greens and the Blak movement.
There’ll be a lot of learning going on with battery management over the next decades, just like what happened when coal, gas and petrol were rolled out as energy sources.
If you’re not aware, there’s a place in Texas called New London, where a devestating gas explosion in 1937 at a school killed about 300 people, mostly children.
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/natural-gas-explosion-kills-schoolchildren-in-texas
What most people don’t realize is that FF gas is odourless, and heavier than air. The explosion happened because there was a gas leak in the school which filled the basement, which subsequently ignited. No-one knew that the gas leak had occured. As a result of this tragedy, odorization was introduced to gas. All gas extractors throughout the entire world now add odour to gas at the point of extraction. That’s why you can smell it when it is released. If you smell it and don’t know of a mitigation for the smell, you get the fk out and phone 000. There is only one pipeline in Austrlia that I know of that has ordourless gas in it, and the safety margins on it are extreme.
These are the things that happen when new technology is introduced. The same thing could be said about chemical spills. Coal stoves. Electrical fires. Every different combination of anything thought of yet or not. The protocols for dealing with these things will be built out over time. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely that every problem will be resolved before people experience it. Which his why, over time, people have generally learned that it’s not a good idea to store 40 gallon drums of petrol in their garages. Or cook with coal stoves.
https://x.com/sbsnews/status/1696001393134350846?s=46&t=P4omkXv09yJlCbltEOUy7g, hmmm, ‘… Albo’ the member for Rio Tinto made SBS
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/08/26/weekend-miscellany-the-case-of-the-disappearing-preselection-challenges-open-thread/comment-page-15/#comment-4153247, perhaps because the Greens have Truth and Treaty on their site, presumably going back to 2022 (I did note the centrist blue Libs lite didn’t have VTP&E on their summary, and if the referendum does not pass, well legislate …), I’d guess Lidia Thorpe was around for that one
https://greens.org.au/platform
https://alp.org.au/policies
Is it true that the US guy said they got Australia for 40 yrs off the back of AUKUS ?
If this is true – shouldn’t the government explain what exactly it has committed Australians too?
The economist also has a story saying Australians weren’t aware of the alliance commitments our govt has made.
Shares in troubled Chinese property giant Evergrande plummeted nearly 80 percent in Hong Kong on Monday after the end of a 17-month trading suspension. The resumption of trading came after the company said in a filing on Friday that it had met guidelines set out by the bourse, including belatedly publishing its financial results and complying with other listing rules.
Once China’s largest real estate firm, Evergrande defaulted in 2021 and is saddled with more than $300 billion in liabilities, becoming a symbol of the nationwide property crisis that many fear could spill over globally. Its shares plunged as much as 87 percent during morning trading, slashing its market value from a peak of more than $50 billion in 2017 to less than $600 million. It finished the day down 79.4 percent.
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 3:05 pm
The best Paul Kelly, on the Voice:
WHY I’M VOTING YES
‘This country is my home. This beautiful country, unique in all the world. Our First Australians looked after it and shaped it for over 60,000 years and, in doing so, developed a rich and complex culture that is a gift to us all. A gift that we enjoy every day in sport, art, music, dance, environmental knowledge and philosophy. That this gift and this deep history have not yet been recognised in our founding document seems to me a huge hole in our soul. And a big knock to ourselves as the land of the fair go.
Recognition is not achieved with fine-sounding words and feel-good statements but by promising to listen. There is a huge and stubborn gap in health, education and opportunities between Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australians. That yawning gap is unfair and diminishes us all. By saying Yes to a Voice and listening to it, we can tackle these problems in a more effective way. And fairness cuts both ways. Having a voice gives people responsibility as well as agency. Being involved in decisions that impact your life brings with it accountability for the outcomes.
I understand there are many different points of view. Some say that a Yes vote will divide us. But I believe this referendum is an invitation to join together and that saying yes will make us a more complete nation.
No leaves us nowhere. Yes breathes in new air. That’s why I’m voting Yes.’
PK
”
My thoughts exactly and expressed with great eloquence.
Shogunsays:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 6:26 pm
nath
Well I don’t really know how stooges are so certain that the government won’t legislate for a voice. I mean every government in living memory has created some kind of representative body. What is the government going to do after the Ref fails? Just ignore indigenous representation. But I lack the certainty of Stooge mental prescience.
Yes perhaps you are right. I bow to your wisdom. After the Voice referendum fails, the government will proclaim “Fuck you, we are going to legislate a Voice anyway”. Everyone will be totally okay with that – including the LNP and the Greens and the Blak movement.
__________
The Ref is about putting an indigenous representative body in the constitution. It’s not about whether there is one or not.
Nothing lately from the greens political party re the voice though, is there vtce? I certainly haven’t seen anything from them.
Nothing like this : “Rio Tinto CEO warns Australia’s ‘vile racism’ hits Voice”
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/leaders/rio-tinto-ceo-warns-australia-s-vile-racism-hits-voice-20230808-p5duqz
Why are the greens political party silent on the voice? Adam Bandt; Silent. David Shoebrdige; Silent. Rio Tinto CEO Kellie Parker; “There’s a number of senior Indigenous leaders who are under enormous racial attack at the moment – vile racial attack – and that’s distressing that Australians can’t have a respectful debate, that racism really, truly comes through,” she said. When was that? Three weeks ago.
Point me to something that Adam Bandt has said about supporting voice in the past three weeks.
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 3:06 pm
Mostly Interested @ #648 Monday, August 28th, 2023 – 3:02 pm
C@tmomma @ #644 Monday, August 28th, 2023 – 2:52 pm
Allegra Spender is no Kerryn Phelps. She’s consultative, not divisive. Also from Liberal Party royalty, so, acceptable to her electorate in a way Kerryn Phelps was not really a good fit.
Yeah I know, that last paragraph was an afterthought, and not the main thrust of my thesis. I’m putting forwards that a No win will be a win for PD. It’s not an election year but they have a chance at winning a national vote, that’d be a win for a LOTO of any shade.
I think it will diminish him.
”
If it doesn’t diminish him than it will diminish the country.
”
a rsays:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 3:10 pm
Mostly Interested @ #642 Monday, August 28th, 2023 – 2:48 pm
Often here on pollbludger it is presented that if the No case wins, then it’s a loss for the Coalition from a purely electoral perspective, in that they will not be able to win a general election with these positions. However there are multiple electoral processes available to us in Australia, and the referendum presents an opportunity for the conservative side of politics to chalk up a win. Much like the Supreme Court in the USA, not all power sits in the parliament and general election, and referendums present the chance to hold back progressive ideas that require constitutional change.
The Voice doesn’t require constitutional change though. If Albo does it right*, the best the Coalition can do is a phyrric victory. Win the ‘No’ case, be forced to sit and watch as Labor passes a legislative Voice anyways, and then be forced into campaigning on repealing the legislated Voice at the next election.
It requires that Albanese have the courage to go and legislate something that just failed in a referendum, over the top of the Coalition’s predictable bleating about “respecting the will of the people”. And it requires that the Greens/Crossbench not kill it. So maybe not entirely likely, though if third-parties kill it the attempt should still count.
* More like, “not entirely wrongly”. The right approach would be to have the legislated Voice already running, and then have the referendum about enshrining the already-established, working, and clearly-not-scary Voice in the constitution.
”
Albanese will not legislate Voice if it fails at referendum. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
Listen and watch Referendum Voice referendum Advertisement. It says vote in referendum for Government to take action.
Steve777 @ #697 Monday, August 28th, 2023 – 5:24 pm
I don’t understand this, or with whom you agree. Legislating it is essentially what the opposition is calling for, that is, the crux of the No case. If you are saying legislate it and ‘see how it works’, I see only two outcomes on that: it doesn’t work (whatever that means and how is that determined) and therefore it is scrapped. Or it does work (ditto) in which case any push to insert it into the Constitution with a referendum would be countered, very successfully I think, with why do that when it’s working.
Either way, it doesn’t make it into the Constitution, and therefore permanency, which is exactly what the opposition desperately want to thwart.
I can see how we have come to this. Albanese saw clearly what was needed. And it was one roll of the dice and a belief in the good will of Australians. I’ve said before, if he’s made any mistake, it was to underestimate how low the opposition could go.
A defeat for the Voice referendum absolutely does not rule out a legislated Voice. The referendum is specifically and exclusively about whether a Voice should be enshrined in the Constitution. It isn’t about whether a Voice should be legislated into existence.
Only a craven fool would interpret a referendum defeat as a rejection of the entire concept of an advisory body for indigenous communities. The Voice is a good idea that should be legislated if constitutional enactment doesn’t happen.
Boerwar says:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 6:21 pm
Possible lithium battery fire on the Freemantle Highway. No, not that one. The other one.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/26/cargo-ship-fire-off-dutch-coast
————————————————
Or maybe not?
https://thedriven.io/2023/08/14/sorry-ev-haters-big-ship-fire-probably-wasnt-caused-by-electric-cars/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16nm_dOcPWE
”
nathsays:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 4:18 pm
Pi says:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 4:09 pm
All the greens political party would do, if the ALP tried to legislate a voice after a failed referendum, would be to screech “muh treaty!!!” until the ALP was tossed out of government. And if they did agree to legislate a treaty with the support of the greens, they would get tossed out of government, and the LNP would immediately repeal it. Just like they did with the climate change legislation.
There is zero chance that the ALP will do this. If the referendum fails, indigenous reconciliation is off the agenda for a generation. Proudly brought to you by the LNP and the greens political party.
________
Are you really asserting that should the Voice Ref lose, the government won’t try to create an Indigenous representative body?
”
Ab-bloody-solutely YES!
Labour should stand up for Indigenous Australians, and declare that even if the Voice referendum fails, they will still pursue the other aspects of the Uluru Statement, as they have promised.
The most common (>90%) mining explosive in use today was discovered by accident, literally and fatally.
https://www.nytimes.com/1995/05/03/us/terror-in-oklahoma-an-explosive-discovered-in-a-deadly-way.html?unlocked_article_code=jxpNeIppmgov5XPXu_o4b-YHbWC8hhTFnw9DehzRwNp0JpYA-vGhhowMR3_YUWE2rGFt3MjhqqGLdRKKrqHF-TMFLyXQddhKYmAHYPJbNpb1uTVYXCAfdoyAnUYyLUyNYPxtg9E2R673zQx4jSdSKLYPGkOLD4qgYa7MQyQ_kX_gzKumV_TQKzYwh0JScwA-dZFezxH7qdTi8QtvDSRCm5IVouqCHaRYdnNkP7zjv7K61U3KA99sDvf1AfoQutFUa9SlBqp_mX6MKo2ZfyQMkHifMRzzvCgX7Rl8A0k8-fcDivTRPjpalayit9vtKmsJqsdFkVj021H4RTsvpkzgq8TgGwoM-CJF35y7vt_3TmtbfrLSiZ6vgVWVpTFoqBew&smid=url-share
The main point being that handling methods changed once it was discovered how dangerous this stuff was. The secondary point is that people figured out how to use it productively. A third point is that it could have been predicted if the right questions had been asked by and of the right people.
Well, when Ven supports your arguments you know you are in trouble.
The promise not to legislate some from of an indigenous voice if the referendum fails will last about six months…. “No, No, No, we are not to deliver what we were just was very important because we can’t get it the way we wanted to!”…. Sure it is a threat but it is not really what is going to happen.
So if the referendum goes down, the government is still going to consult indigenous people about indigenous issues. And some form of body/bodies will be created or modified, because it is need.
And it is a threat that is supposed to apply to those who don’t think it goes far enough. But of the current “no” voters that is probably a very small minority.
I think everyone with half a brain knows the Voice Ref is lost.
Now, it’s about using it as political material. Trying to blame who you want to blame. Trying to position yourself in relation to the expected outcome.
Toxic midget = Alan Joyce the worst CEO of QANTAS in its lifetime
The greens political party is already sharpening their knives for the post referendum that they’re actively trying to sink. “This one isn’t good enough. Muh treaty.” And if the ALP joins with the greens post referendum that is lost, they’ll be turfed out at the next election. Just like the climate change legislation. And it would be repealed by the LNP just like the climate change legislation was.
There is zero chance that the ALP will let them do it again. It’s yes in the referendum or its off the agenda for a generation.
Pi, don’t burn your bridges. In ten years you could be a green.
”
Nicholassays:
Monday, August 28, 2023 at 7:08 pm
A defeat for the Voice referendum absolutely does not rule out a legislated Voice. The referendum is specifically and exclusively about whether a Voice should be enshrined in the Constitution. It isn’t about whether a Voice should be legislated into existence.
Only a craven fool would interpret a referendum defeat as a rejection of the entire concept of an advisory body for indigenous communities. The Voice is a good idea that should be legislated if constitutional enactment doesn’t happen
”
Thanks for calling me, Pi, Shogun and Steve777 a fool. This is coming from a person who advocates foolish things a lot of time.
Campus life delivering some benefits.
Former Liberal foreign affairs minister says at yes campaign event ‘Australia’s international reputation can be affected by a no vote’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/28/julie-bishop-says-no-result-in-voice-referendum-would-send-very-negative-message-to-world
B.S. Fairman at 12.31 pm and Oakeshott Country at 12.33 pm
The topic of Elders, and the phenomenon of Elderhood, is a serious one, well beyond polite quipping.
For a start, those interested might listen to some of the considered wisdom of Stephen Jenkinson:
https://orphanwisdom.com/come-of-age/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSIlixSuMYQ (23 min interview; just see some of the comments)
https://abeautifulresistance.org/site/2021/4/18/coming-of-age-in-troubled-times-an-interview-with-stephen-jenkinson
Including this quote:
“It occurred to me long ago that it is not older people that confer elder status upon each other. Elderhood is fundamentally recognized by the people who seek it, not the people who seek to be it. It is in the wheelhouse of young people to craft elders in their midst by their willingness to seek them out.”
As for the Voice referendum, the proposed Voice comes from an unprecedented process of dialogue among Indigenous peoples in Australia about how to reform their relationship of deprivation with the Australian state. Elders who disagreed with the tactics of this reform, or who doubt the potential of the proposed Voice, were heard during the Uluru Dialogue process, but they were in a small minority at Uluru (e.g. Michael Mansell and Michael Ghillar Anderson). They remain in a small minority.
To my knowledge, there is only one Indigenous Elder with extensive political experience in Australia and globally, plus a coherent understanding of Australian politics, who has expressed doubts about the proposed Voice, and not in principle, but because he thought it was unlikely to succeed electorally. In other words, he doubted not the integrity of the proposal, but rather the Australian electorate.
This was Les Malezer, a prominent international Indigenous activist who worked tirelessly on getting the 2007 UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples adopted as a strong global document.
The short interview in June 2022 with Malezer is at this link:
https://nirs.org.au/news/politics/malezer-voice-referendum-will-fail/
As for the situation on the ground, this report three weeks ago from Bowraville may be typical:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-08/bowraville-elders-grappling-with-voice-debate-730/102660028
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uA5VObTIqH4 (10 min 7.30 report on Bowraville)
Often the older, and respected, Indigenous people in a community have a clearer appreciation of the constraints of the Australian political system than do some of the younger people, who cannot yet see how the proposed Voice would contribute to what they regard as a more important objective, a Treaty.
There will be no demographic breakdown of the votes in the referendum, but it would be surprising if the dominant demographic trend in the non-Aboriginal population, which is clearly of older people (especially men) tending to be much more likely to vote NO, was replicated among Indigenous people.
Also from that link, as I was trying to say up thread:
Are we likely to get a Resolve poll tonight? Or is it a week too soon?
The lack of public polling on the Voice recently is quite surprising given that it is only 7 weeks away.
We live in a democracy. When people say ‘No’ to a proposition it stays that way. Otherwise, we are not living in a democracy.
Uluru Statement from Heart has 3 step process. First step leads to other steps. That is what First Nations people wanted.
nath, I really hope the fact that I don’t give a shit what you say about any subject ever gets through your thin and pointy skull some time. It’ll save you needless typing.
ItzaDream at 7.34 pm
See this short essay by John McCarthy, which is so clear we have been handing it out in Braidwood:
https://johnmenadue.com/what-the-voice-means-for-australias-reputation/
McCarthy may well be Australia’s most senior living diplomat, judged in terms of his ambassadorships.
I’ve got a bit of a soft spot for pointy head people.
https://youtu.be/guqFqcV4Po0?si=frnfbgb4EaHbcbRE
(Harry Nilsson The Point)
B.S. Fairman at 7.38 pm
Don’t you remember recent state elections conducted after almost a drought in reputable public polling? Labor will be conducting its own internal polling. That may be reassuring, but few will know about it.
What you are seeing with the relative paucity of public polling, and more particularly the small samples, is a reflection of the narrow-minded priorities of the Australian commercial media, who fund the polls.
Thanks Doc. Braidwood! Oh, sounds very nice, but not very yessy. Good work and good luck.