I don’t believe there will be any voting intention polling this week, apart from the usual Roy Morgan – and if you’re really desperate, Kevin Bonham has discovered a trove of its federal polling in a dark corner of its website. Other than that, there’s the following:
• The regular mid-term calculation of population-based state and territory seat entitlements for the House of Representatives was conducted last week, and it confirmed what anyone with a calculator could have worked out in advance, namely that New South Wales and Victoria will each lose a seat, Western Australia will gain one, and the size of the chamber will go from 151 to 150 (assuming the government doesn’t go the nuclear option of seeking to increase the size of parliament, which is under active consideration by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters). Antony Green has detailed blog posts on the looming redistributions for New South Wales, suggesting Sydney’s North Shore as the area most likely to have a seat abolished), Victoria, which is harder to call. Western Australia’s existing fifteen seats all have similar current enrolments, making it difficult to identify exactly where the sixteenth will be created, except that it is likely to be in an outer suburban growth area.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports that Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick, who is appealing his recent Liberal National Party preselection defeat, has offered legal advice that Peter Dutton was wrongly told by party headquarters that he could not vote unless he attended the ballot, where other party notables were allowed to cast votes in absentia. Rennick lost the final round of the ballot to party treasurer Stuart Fraser by 131 votes to 128. The party’s disputes committee is likely to make a recommendation this week as to whether the preselection should be held again, which a party source is quoted describing as a “real possibility”.
• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that a comprehensive internal poll conducted by Labor earlier this month from a sample of 14,300 found 48% in favour of an Indigenous Voice and 47% opposed, with yes leading in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Further, yes voters were more likely to be firmly resolved in their choice, with 40% saying they would definitely vote yes compared with 30% for a definite no.
• A survey encompassing 24 countries by the Pew Research Centre found Australia tying with Japan for having the least favourable attitudes towards China, with 87% expressing an unfavourable view.
• Labor has formally decided against fielding a candidate in Victoria’s Warrandyte by-election on August 26. The three official nominees thus far are Liberal candidate Nicole Werner, Greg Cheesman of the Freedom Party and Cary De Wit of the Democratic Labour Party. Endorsed Greens candidate Tomas Lightbody’s paperwork is evidently still on its way.
• In other by-election news, I can offer the following contribution to the debate as to how Labor in Western Australia should feel about the result in Rockingham on Saturday: they scored 67.6% of the two-party preferred vote in ordinary election day booths, which was hardly different from their 68.8% in the corresponding booths at last year’s federal election. This means Labor almost matched a result it achieved in the context of an election where the statewide two-party result was 55-45 in its favour.
Mostly interested.
“ Any one been paying attention to the detail of US force deployments?”
Actual US deployments here are still few. Visits have increased. Deployments will increase when our northern bases are upgraded.
‘Ven says:
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 8:49 am
”
Mike Foley tells us that independent senator David Pocock has sprung a test of the Albanese government’s climate action convictions by forcing it to reject or support a proposed new law that would compel the government to ban new fossil fuel projects to prevent harm to current and future generations of children.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pocock-wants-veto-for-new-coal-mines-to-consider-harm-to-future-children-20230727-p5drtz.html
”
Cue for BW to abuse Pocock mixing it with criticism of Greens political party, China and India. ‘
—————————————————–
Why should Pocock criticize India for increasing its coal burning to a billion tons a year when it is perfectly entitled to increase its coal burning to 2 billion tons a year? It is not as if this will eventually flood coasts, displacing tens of millions of Indian citizens, wreck the monsoon and destroy the Indian wheat and rice crops.
Why should Pocock criticize China for increasing its coal-fired power at six times the rate of the rest of the world combined? Surely China is entitled to double that to 12 times the rate? It is not as if China already burning half the world’s coal is going to flood coastal cities, displace tens of millions of Chinese citizens, and wreck their rice and wheat crops.
Other than that, Labor went to the election promising to open new fossil fuel projects, promising billions on renewables and promising 43/30. It is delivering on those promises.
I am sure that the Chinese and Indian governments (both of which are promising maybe to get to 0/60) are lauding Pocock’s political stunt as the sort of distraction that suits their stated intent which will accelerate the cooking of the planet.
I’ve got stuff to do today, so apologies if you yell at me and I don’t respond. Just a quick comment on the HAFF.
Labor’s original proposal was “invest $10b and spend at most $500m a year”. Their current proposal is “invest $10b spent at least $500m a year”.
The Greens started off asking for $10b a year. This is less than the CFMEU recently asked to be spent on public housing ($28 billion a year). The Greens trimmed their ask to $5b, and now to $2.5b.
The Greens have moved much more than Labor, yet the “Greenz iz unreazonable” claim persists.
Yes, Labor dipped into the current budget surplus to find an extra $2b one-off funding, which is a win, but why can’t they do that every year? In the context of $368 billion for nukular submarines, it’s a rounding error.
Even $2.5 billion a year will barely make a dent in the waiting list.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/could-a-corporate-super-tax-could-fill-a-housing-shortage-and-bring-down-rental-prices/zann6bnod
Hairy Butler
The Greens started by supporting the Statement as is.
Then, sadly, the Greens decided that Indigenous people were political fools who needed to be guided by the superior whitefellas in the Greens. There is nothing quite as fulfilling as benevolent racism.
For eight full months the Greens allowed Thorpe to do her worst to sink the Voice.
Finally, after an internal shitfight that is still largely opaque, Thorpe was managed out.
Cox and the BlakGreens have been at daggers drawn all the while.
There have been numerous distracting interventions along the fatuous lines of ‘Treaty Now!’ but, apart from that, the Greens have largely been supine on the Voice.
If the Voice goes down Dutton, Hanson and Bandt will all have made their separate contributions.
Hairy Butler
It is blindingly simple.
The Commonwealth has guaranteed half a billion a year on top of the states and territory builds.
The Greens are blocking housing construction.
Why?
Because the Greens are after the renter vote. The homeless vote can go jump.
zoomster @ #49 Monday, July 31st, 2023 – 8:54 am
Bollocks.
Hairy Butler says:
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 8:45 am
Hey zoom,
“We need the first (Voice) to get the second (Treaty) and third (Truth).”
That’s where we are, but it’s bizarre. If you’ve got a three-part process with one really tricky bit (a referendum), do that last. As we’ve seen – and it was obvious – Australia is deeply, instinctively racist when it comes to Indigenous people.
“That’s the order the Uluru statement called for.” Yes but it’s not terribly practical, as we’re discovering. The same group who signed the Uluru statement also asked for the referendum to be held in conjuction with either Australia Day 2024 or Anzac Day 2023, which the government has ignored.
Try this alternative for size
May 2022: Labor wins election
June 2022: Voice legislation introduced, Truth process started, national Treaty negotiations launched.
2024: Voice referendum
2025: Federal election
Too bad that doesn’t suit Albanese’s political calendar. Labor seems to want to keep 2024 clear for an early election.
Other countries going through this process have put Truth or Treaty first. In South Africa, the Truth and Reconciliation Commission started work well before the election which gave Black South Africans the vote (Voice). In Canada, Treaties were signed in the 19th century, they’re currently working through their Truth isses. In New Zealand, a Treaty was signed in the mid 19th century, and designated seats for Maori have been around about 150 years. (How would Australians feel about that? Not happy, I assure you.)
“Who are you going to negotiate a Treaty with anyway?” The people are there. The institutions are there: land councils, legal services, Victoria already has a representative body.
____________________
How lucky that First Nations peoples have you, Hairy Butler, to help them when they asked for the wrong sequence. Just to be clear, from the Uluru Statement from the Heart:
“We seek constitutional reforms to empower our people and take a rightful place in our own country. When we have power over our destiny our children will flourish. They will walk in two worlds and their culture will be a gift to their country.
We call for the establishment of a First Nations Voice enshrined in the Constitution.
Makarrata is the culmination of our agenda: the coming together after a struggle. It captures our aspirations for a fair and truthful relationship with the people of Australia and a better future for our children based on justice and self-determination.”
Surely you are not a white saviour? Here is an easy explainer:
https://www.healthline.com/health/white-saviorism
Please reflect and stop trying to score political points.
Perhaps the Commonwealth could just not breach the duty of care, sounds radical I know, but ffs good government without a duty of care isn’t good government, it is a lie.
Player One says:
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 9:11 am
zoomster @ #49 Monday, July 31st, 2023 – 8:54 am
Can’t do Treaty without Voice because Voice determines who you’re talking to.
Bollocks.
_______________
I stopped asking you to reflect, rather than attempting to score political points 😉
“ The Opposition Leader on Monday will commit to scrapping Labor’s $40-a-fortnight increase to the JobSeeker rate and instead allow welfare recipients to pocket up to $300 in earnings without being booted off the payment.”
_______________________________
The robots will be out to get you if you pocket $300.01…
Did Mr Gold’s reporting of Isreal coming crimes against humanity go completely unremarked.
The selective application of human rights is pretty disgusting.
AZ
The robots get you long before that. Your payments start decreasing as soon as you declare any income. They cease altogether once you’ve earnt the $300 a week (but you stay on the books).
Griff @ #59 Monday, July 31st, 2023 – 9:13 am
It is those spreading blatant political disinformation who are doing so.
The Voice is not a prerequisite for Treaty.
It isn’t at all true that there was any order to the Uluru Statement, there wasn’t.
Putting the voice first came later, and it wasn’t in anyway innate to the Statement it was a pragmatic, tactical, perhaps we could actually acheive that, rather than a strategic necessity.
For people who carry on endlessly about the voice and apply rigorous thought policing to anyone with even the most mildly divert opinion, you think you’d have a better grasp of the basic facts and tell less pathetic lies.
All koolaid, no reality.
”
Following the crash of the ADF’s helicopter, Mich Ryan tells us that ni preparing for future warfare, there are no risk-free approaches.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/in-preparing-for-future-warfare-there-are-no-risk-free-approaches-20230730-p5dsbp.html
”
Cronus
I don’t know whether you agree with me or not but here goes. There was/ is always a high risk of losing soldiers when a country goes into a war and it is a inevitability.
But what John Howard did during Iraq war2 by not putting soldiers at harms length (as far as I know they were mostly on ships or assisting in the planning and implementation of the US war plans in war rooms), there were no battlefield deaths other than some suicides or accidental deaths, maybe people in Australia especially in ADF started to believe that deaths could be avoided. Fortunately even during East Timor war, Australian soldiers some luckily avoided fatal casualties.
However, Afghanistan war cut short that delusions because Australia soldiers were on the ground. But to reduce that deaths ADF sent Special Force soldiers like BRS, which resulted in war crimes.
WeWantPaul says:
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 9:20 am
It isn’t at all true that there was any order to the Uluru Statement, there wasn’t.
Putting the voice first came later, and it wasn’t in anyway innate to the Statement it was a pragmatic, tactical, perhaps we could actually acheive that, rather than a strategic necessity.
For people who carry on endlessly about the voice and apply rigorous thought policing to anyone with even the most mildly divert opinion, you think you’d have a better grasp of the basic facts and tell less pathetic lies.
All koolaid, no reality.
_______________
Read the quote again. Go to the source if you are concerned I misquoted. You are a lawyer so you know what words mean. What does “culmination” mean? Or do you think they chose the wrong words? Are you a white saviour as well?
Words matter.
WWP
Every year, I show Dean Parkin’s explanation of the Uluru Statement to my History students.
He’s very clear on where Voice sits.
”
Will Israel escape civil war? Even if it does, it will surely lose its soul, opines Dahlia Scheindlin who says the new law suffocating judicial independence will bring autocratic rule to Israeli citizens as well as Palestinians.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2023/jul/30/will-israel-escape-civil-war-even-if-it-does-it-will-surely-lose-its-soul
”
Israel appears to be already losing its soul as per this post by Andrew Gold
”
Andrew Goldsays:
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 6:14 am
“The cement mixer vomited out the grayish liquid, which made a noise as it flowed noisily into the water wells, clogging them. Standing there were the soldiers who served as guards, the Civil Administration employees who devised this evil plan, the laborers who carried it out and the peasants who saw their sustenance snuffed out for eternity.
The soldiers tried to disperse them, as one might shoo stray dogs. The concrete continued to pour out and the people from the Civil Administration verified that it covered everything. Soon, all three wells were sealed. It happened last Wednesday, south of Hebron, near the Fawwar refugee camp, and it was the work of the devil, one of the more diabolical deeds of the occupation – and the competition is fierce.”
https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2023-07-30/ty-article-opinion/.premium/we-even-destroy-their-water-wells/00000189-a31f-d00f-a7db-b39f5f280000
“
”
”
Indeed!
If the Voice referendum fails, will Labor abandon Treaty? I guess they will, since they have already decided to disregard Truth.
Thank you, BK.
There’s a wiff of longtermism in this piece. You can spot it by the reliance on unnamed and uncounted future children (not their parents or the adults that they will become) and by not providing a timeframe. It usually amounts to a specific sacrifice that must be made today for the children of tomorrow.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pocock-wants-veto-for-new-coal-mines-to-consider-harm-to-future-children-20230727-p5drtz.html
So, first we had the Half-Arsed Future Fund, and now we have the Pathetic Rent Resources Tax.
Labor is really on a roll.
”
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 7:48 am
[zoomstersays:
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 7:43 am
So the Greens solution is not to tax them at all?]
No, that’s essentially Labor’s intention.
The Teal and Greens want to tax them more but Labor and Liberal are standing in the way.
But you know all this.
”
Rex
You behave and sound as if Teals and Greens political party are in government and ALP is blocking their bill in Senate. You really have some serious delusions.
Credit where it’s due, a very good opening stand by Khawaja & Warner, even raising the albeit doubtful prospect of Oz winning the 5th.
”
zoomstersays:
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 7:49 am
Rex
If the legislation is blocked, they won’t be taxed.
But you know this.
”
zoomster
Rex behaves as if Teals and Greens political party are in government.
But you know this. 🙂
Australia is now fully “embedded” in the USA. I thinks it’s obvious in which organ.
Australia’s ruling class have never supported independence for our country.
Now the Labor Party is firmly in support of increasing our colonial status.
I feel sick every time i see the visage of the odious Marles on the telly. He has the furtive look of an arch Quisling.
Obviously, he is far from being the only yankee carpetbagger in the ALP.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-30/us-military-analysts-defence-regional-security-richard-marles/102666972
The Commonwealth already owes a duty of care like any other employer, master of those in its service, occupier, contractor.
Its asbestos liabilities are a nice case in point as to where the limit may lie:
(a) liable for overseeing dockworkers handling bags of asbestos in the 50s-70s (Crimmins);
(b) probably not liable for private use in ACT homes (Mr Fluffy) prior to territoryhood. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-01/commonwealth-takes-first-steps-towards-compensation-fund-for-non/100045060
The test for duty is its breadth. Do you want all future weather events compensible by the Commonwealth?
You’d think this would be a no-brainer …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-31/nt-senator-david-pocock-to-propose-climate-duty-of-care-bill/102663706
Cue screams of outrage.
”
Mostly Interestedsays:
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 8:22 am
Do people here think we are prepping for war, or are already fighting a low grade war (without the bullets)?
I noted the imbedding of US intelligence agents into our own defence department. It made me stand up and listen, and wonder if we’ve been subjected to the salami method of prepping for war as more and more US assets get moved to Australia. If I think back it feels like the past 5 years have seen a continuous drip, drip, drip of US forces being moved into Australia.
Any one been paying attention to the detail of US force deployments?
”
MI
Your troll again.
Julia Gillard agreed for deployment of US Force deployments when she was PM and announced it proudly to the world and Morrison just completed the circle with AUKUS deal.
As A-E pointed Biden got Australia for free.
Some people think that it is okay because Biden is POTUS. But Biden will not be POTUS for long and what if some megalomaniac becomes. POTUS?
As per latest polls it is 50:50 in polls when it is Trump vs Biden.
zoomster @ #15 Monday, July 31st, 2023 – 7:45 am
Yes, because unlike all other loans in Australia, they increase the principal amount of student loans by the CPI. Special treatment of an insidious and evil type. Their own borrowings are not indexed, so when and if they repay them, they do so in dollars of much lower purchasing power than those they borrowed.
“You behave and sound as if Teals and Greens political party are in government and ALP is blocking their bill in Senate. You really have some serious delusions.”
The irony of this bizzare observation on a forum where routinely the greens are castigated for stopping the Govt will keep me laughing all day.
On a serious note If only 1/4 of our politicians bought Pocock’s person ethics to Parliament we would be an infinitely better country.
yabba
Conversely, however, some people never pay off (or pay a cent off) their student loans.
Ven @ #78 Monday, July 31st, 2023 – 9:53 am
You really do have the wrong end of the stick here.
`Pocock is a member of the Australian parliament, not India’s or China’s. Ranting into the void is a waste of his time – and ours.
”
WeWantPaulsays:
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 10:01 am
“You behave and sound as if Teals and Greens political party are in government and ALP is blocking their bill in Senate. You really have some serious delusions.”
The irony of this bizzare observation on a forum where routinely the greens are castigated for stopping the Govt will keep me laughing all day.
On a serious note If only 1/4 of our politicians bought Pocock’s person ethics to Parliament we would be an infinitely better country.
”
Yes it sounds bizzare and is intended to be bizzare because if and when read Rex comments you will understand it.
subgeometer @ #84 Monday, July 31st, 2023 – 10:17 am
Our parliament is a ‘void’?
Actually, I can see your point.
”
Mostly Interestedsays:
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 10:15 am
Ven @ #78 Monday, July 31st, 2023 – 9:53 am
”
MI
Your troll again.
You really do have the wrong end of the stick here.
”
And it is hurting me. 🙂
zoomster @ #62 Monday, July 31st, 2023 – 9:17 am
As it is, quite literally, impossible to live on the Jobseeker or Youth Allowance payment alone, nearly all recipients will be gaining extra income by working for cash payments, for such tasks as babysitting, dishpigging, lawnmowing, house cleaning, private teaching (musical instruments, coaching) etc etc. These will not be declared, unless the recipient is soft in the head.
When you a reviled, ridiculed and starved, and priced out of any available accommodation, fighting back in the only way available to you is completely understandable.
Whoops there’s a snake in the shed so I’ll give it a bit of time to move on. Probably a python but could be a taipan.
WWP, I had to read the Uluru Statement very closely to pick out the sequencing of Voice, then Treaty, then Truth. I don’t know why it’s kind of hidden, implied, and not made explicit. It’s not sensible. For one thing, making Treaty and Truth dependent on the success of the Voice referendum risks putting the brakes on the entire reconciliation process.
There were several constitutional lawyers at the Uluru convention but I don’t know if there were too many political scientists. If there had been, they might have said “this is a good idea but let’s not specify this order, we’re putting the hardest part first”.
Ven @ #68 Monday, July 31st, 2023 – 9:28 am
Evil, yes. But that also seems at least a bit hyperbolic. Surely drilling a new borehole is all that’s needed to get the water flowing again? It’s not literally gone for all eternity.
zoomster @ #82 Monday, July 31st, 2023 – 10:03 am
If you take out an interest only loan to purchase a home, and just refinance with a slightly bigger dollar amount loan at the end of each 15 year loan period, you can easily never pay a cent off your principal until you sell the property, at a considerable, tax free, capital gain. Your interest payments will diminish in real terms, as inflation continues, and the real value of the principal will likewise shrink.
Magic money machine.
Mavis @ #74 Monday, July 31st, 2023 – 9:11 am
You had no doubt last night. It has moved to doubtful this morning.
Test cricket will do that to you.
”
Rikalisays:
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 9:43 am
Australia is now fully “embedded” in the USA. I thinks it’s obvious in which organ.
Australia’s ruling class have never supported independence for our country.
Now the Labor Party is firmly in support of increasing our colonial status.
I feel sick every time i see the visage of the odious Marles on the telly. He has the furtive look of an arch Quisling.
Obviously, he is far from being the only yankee carpetbagger in the ALP.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-30/us-military-analysts-defence-regional-security-richard-marles/102666972
”
Marles will fit into current Liberal party as a “Moderate”
And if you look at the odds, Australia are clear favourites.
“WWP, I had to read the Uluru Statement very closely to pick out the sequencing of Voice, then Treaty, then Truth. I don’t know why it’s kind of hidden, implied, and not made explicit. It’s not sensible. ”
It is a consensus document, my personal view is that in a concensus document if you are digging for implied meaning you have left the consensus. Maybe the drafts persons intended and order, but if it isn’t explicit the most likely explanation is that is wouldn’t have got a consensus if it was.
In my reading this is consistent with the Yarrabah Affirmation, in 2022.
Obviously there could be any number of views of the Statement from the Heart from those who signed it. And given the nature of that endeavour it is all but impossible for them to revise or clarify it.
It would be interesting to know who owns / runs the UluruStatement.Org website.
I’ve only just start commenting on PB after lurking for years, and I intend to continue, so maybe I should make something clear.
I prefer to debate policies. Personal attacks roll off me, so if you attack me personally, that only makes you smaller.
So, Griff:
Yes, I’m White but to some people I look Indigenous. I know what it’s like to be assaulted – on more than one occasion – on suspicion of “being cheeky to police while Black”.
Ven says:
Monday, July 31, 2023 at 9:22 am
”
Following the crash of the ADF’s helicopter, Mich Ryan tells us that ni preparing for future warfare, there are no risk-free approaches.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/in-preparing-for-future-warfare-there-are-no-risk-free-approaches-20230730-p5dsbp.html
”
Cronus
I don’t know whether you agree with me or not but here goes. There was/ is always a high risk of losing soldiers when a country goes into a war and it is a inevitability.
But what John Howard did during Iraq war2 by not putting soldiers at harms length (as far as I know they were mostly on ships or assisting in the planning and implementation of the US war plans in war rooms), there were no battlefield deaths other than some suicides or accidental deaths, maybe people in Australia especially in ADF started to believe that deaths could be avoided. Fortunately even during East Timor war, Australian soldiers some luckily avoided fatal casualties.
However, Afghanistan war cut short that delusions because Australia soldiers were on the ground. But to reduce that deaths ADF sent Special Force soldiers like BRS, which resulted in war crimes.
———————————————-
Risks in war are easily understandable for obvious reasons. Risks in training too are not able to be entirely mitigated though mostly the ADF processes significantly limit these potential hazards.
The issue with the Taipan though is different. Its flaws have been highlighted previously and even the likely cause of the Jervis Bay ditching in March 2023 which was a failure to complete a scheduled update is still yet to be completed across the fleet. This is unacceptable. A known flaw that caused a major incident remains yet crews are being placed at a known risk daily.
If this were a civilian trucking or bus fleet or a civilian airliner company immediate recalls would be undertaken and addressed ASAP. This would almost certainly also have occurred across the ADF last century at least. In terms of workplace health and safety, continuing to operate with a known flaw that has already caused a major incident is unacceptable.
I would ask the question of politicians and very senior ADF officers, “would they be happy for members of their family to fly in Taipans given this context” and if not, why are they continuing to ask ADF members to do so? This action is bordering on culpability.
Team Katich @ #94 Monday, July 31st, 2023 – 10:04 am
Which is nuts. Tempted myself to flutter on England at 3.25. The draw isnt a bad option either at 6 with a little rain forecast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2FmDysvDr8
Hi cronus,
Thanks for your comments on the Taipans. It’s a stressful time for all connected.
“This action is bordering on culpability.”
Agreed. Do Qld’s workplace manslaughter laws apply in this context?