The Fadden by-election is upon us tomorrow, and the Poll Bludger’s results page stands ready for action, to provide live updates of results down to booth level in tabular and map form (the latter viewable by clicking the “activate” button at the bottom of the page) together with projections, probability estimates and data on preference flows.
News from the front:
• Queensland Labor Senator Murray Watt candidly stated yesterday that his party had “zero chance” of overcoming the 10.6% margin, and no word coming out of the Coalition camp has indicated otherwise.
• Paul Karp of The Guardian reports that the Liberal National Party has been concerned enough about the Aston precedent to have sent a six-figure sum on digital, billboard and television advertising, whereas Labor has conducted a digital-only campaign costing about $30,000, much of it targeting outgoing member Stuart Robert over robodebt.
• The Australian Electoral Commission has expressed concern about low turnout for early voting, with only 16,000 votes cast as of Monday compared with 22,000 at the same stage at the 2022 election. Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group told the Age/Herald that a low turnout would likely hamper Labor, as the effect would be concentrated among younger voters.
• Maggie Perry of 6News has helpfully assembled a table summarising how-to-vote card recommendations, the most significant feature of which is an active recommendation by One Nation that LNP candidate Cameron Caldwell go well ahead of Labor’s Letitia Del Fabbro.
In other by-election news, the timetable for Warrandyte has been revealed, with the closure of nominations and ballot paper draw set for Thursday, August 10, early voting to open on Monday, August 14, and polling day on Saturday, August 24. The big question of whether Labor will be taking the field remains unanswered. The other by-election on the horizon, for Mark McGowan’s seat of Rockingham in Western Australia, will be held a fortnight from tomorrow.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of the by-elections. The open thread for general discussion continues here.
Easy win to the LNP , why Labor is wasting money even running a candidate is beyond me.
Hoping against hope that ALP wins in Fadden to send a big fat message to Dutton that his crap, s*it, nonsense is not acceptable anymore.
It should be remembered that this is the Gold Coast where even people living in the most dire of circumstance vote LNP. I still recall a GC bulletin headline proclaiming the big city just up the road the socialist republic of Brisbane. Gold Coast has always had tickets on it self and the fact someone like Stuart Robert was considered so appreciated and admired down there speaks volumes. In other words this is place is the LNP heartland .
Firmly believe that the LNP will retain despite their rubbish candidate but when I went to put on $50 @ $12 for Labor to win my stake was limited to $25 only.
Interesting that Sportsbet would offer such odds but still felt the need to cap stakes.
My just be my account, I took Labor in Aston and cleaned up at the NSW, Vic and Fed elections.
Sportsbet have restricted my betting on politics for many years.
Regularly they will let me on for only $1 and when I attempt to bet again they advise that I have exceeded my limit!
Have there been any polls published for this bi-election? I have not seen any.
Low interest suggests low interest ergo no change to status quo.
Roberts had a dubious record as a politician but I think only wild optimism would suggest Fadden will change hands.
Realistically the average bi-election result is a 5% to 6% swing away from the government.
– Any swing to the Liberals over 6% will be a good result for the LNP and Dutton personally in his home state
– Any swing to the Liberals under 5% is a good result for Labor
– any swing to Labor is a great result for Labor
– a Labor win and I’ll be drinking a good bottle of red.
Just for the fun of it, I’m going to make a guess that Fadden will probably be won by the LNP at about 55-45 two party preferred, so about a 5% swing to Labor. About a result where federal polling is now compared to last year’s election.
Also just for fun, I’m predicting LNP by 53-47. The Robodebt scandal must surely have had a disillusioning effect even on some of those people “with tickets on themselves”.
Smokey?
Turnout.
My prediction is that the turnout is going to do strange things to the outcome.
I’m going to be more bearish and predict a mild swing to Labor, around 2-3% or so. My feeling is that cost-of-living concerns, the by-election effect, voter apathy, and the very nature of an electorate like Fadden will go a long way towards neutering the electoral impacts of Stuart Roberts’ status as the dodgiest guy in federal politics.
Hope I’m wrong!
I am staying with my Uncle and his family in Mandurah ( 1 hour down the coast from Perth).
He is in the local Liberal Party branch and he is helping out in Rockingham. We agree to disagree re politics except when we bash the Greens!
He hates Albo, but he thinks Gough was the best PM and he admires Keating.
I am fond of this uncle and his family so I don’t let politics get in the way.
I also think the Victorian Labor party will be watching what happens tomorrow in Fadden in regards to what it’ll do in Warrandyte.
If the result is neutral or there’s a swing to the LNP then they would probably stay out of it. But if there’s a significant swing to Labor then they would be more inclined to run a candidate.
Princeplanet: “… this is place is the LNP heartland”
In the Joh era the Gold Coast was Liberal heartland. Until it became Nationals heartland.
Since the inception of the LNP, it’s Forrest Gump’s box of chocolates: you don’t know which one you’re going to get.
Were Fadden in a different state, Labour would surely be in contention – though less so than 3 months ago as the Albo government’s honeymoon has steadily dwindled it seems.
But Queensland is where the most tired looking of the Labour state governments is, and with no LNP in federal government why wouldn’t the swing be at least net neutral if not swing to LNP a little?
As a side note, Dutton’s figures are poor for a well-known figure nationally (for whom it’s harder to turn round the perception than a newbie) – basically always net negative in polls – but not the catastrophic level his haters on this site clearly wish (think?) they are.
I doubt it’s likely to be drag on LNP in the by-election in Fadden, in fact he still needs to show up enthusiastically on the trail at other by-elections too. There’s nothing like perceived indifference or cowardice to really p*** swing voters off, even if they don’t actually embrace said politicians when they are on the ground.
Often F2F people see a more human (and unfiltered by media) side of politicians of all stripes that they thought they didn’t like, it’s why I’m a great believer in leaders showing up and making their case even when they’re really under the cosh, e.g. been in government 6 years, unpopular, etc. etc.
Well I guess that remains to be seen about Dutton. From my view, every time he appears in the media he just seems so tense and angry, and that with his unfortunate hair loss condition, angry bald men don’t tend to go well as political leaders. But they go great as villains in soap operas and the like.
Kirsdarke says:
Friday, July 14, 2023 at 11:00 pm
Well I guess that remains to be seen about Dutton. From my view, every time he appears in the media he just seems so tense and angry, and that with his unfortunate hair loss condition, angry bald men don’t tend to go well as political leaders. But they go great as villains in soap operas and the like.
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98.6 asks :
Are we allowed to say those things ?
If we are than I will say every time I see him he reminds me of a ten pin bowling ball with a pair of glasses on.
I might wait till tomorrow till I say who will win in Fadden.
Evan says:
Friday, July 14, 2023 at 6:57 am
Easy win to the LNP , why Labor is wasting money even running a candidate is beyond me.
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So if Labor gets a swing to it of anything between 1 and 9% in Fadden, lets take 5% as an example, that means in approx 22 months time they only need a swing of 5% to win the seat.
Is that a waste of money ?
Are the other 12 candidates besides the LNP also wasting their money ?
Money is never in short supply in political elections.
Think it was worth Labor running a candidate in the seat even if they’re a snowballs chance in hell of winning it. Also don’t think it’s in the interests of parties anymore to be willingly sitting out of by-elections as they used to as they can’t take anyone’s vote for granted in a more fractured landscape.
My expectation is something like a 5% swing or more to Labor which if it happens would be seen as a win for the government even while still being on a comfortable margin for the LNP.
Go everybody other than the LNP in QLD!
Let’s hope the locals do an Aston.
BTSays: “Queensland is where the most tired looking of the Labour (sic) state governments is”
Well, after governing for 29 of the past 34 years, maybe tiredness is forgivable.
But hey, election after election, the media munchkins keep telling us that Labor looks like losing.
And — with the exception of 2012, in the wake of Anna Bligh’s betrayal (“Hey, we’re just going to privatise a few things; sorry we didn’t mention that when you elected us”) — Queenslanders have elected Labor governments. For a third of a century, and counting.
BTSays: “Were Fadden in a different state, Labour (sic) would surely be in contention – though less so than 3 months ago as the Albo government’s honeymoon has steadily dwindled it seems.”
Resolve’s recent state breakdowns had Labor’s primary vote *up 7 points* since the 2022 election in Queensland.
14 months on, no sign of Albo’s honeymoon ‘dwindling’ north of the Tweed. Quite the opposite.
BTSays: “Often F2F people see a more human (and unfiltered by media) side of politicians of all stripes that they thought they didn’t like”
My significant other has met Peter Dutton, through her work.
She loathes him viscerally.
After nearly half a century, I’ve learned to trust her judgment.
Soc: “a Labor win and I’ll be drinking a good bottle of red”
I recommend a Witches Falls Syrah from Mt Tamborine in Fadden’s hinterland.
Paul Karp echoes the line (first articulated by Labor, as I recall) that Fadden is ‘practically the back yard of the opposition leader, Peter Dutton’.
Well, they’re both in southern Queensland, so there’s that …
Fadden abuts Forde. Forde abuts Oxley. Oxley abuts Ryan. Ryan abuts Dickson.
One on the Gold Coast, the other north of Brisbane. Not quite neighbours.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/14/fadden-will-show-if-voters-are-ready-to-blame-labor-for-the-economy-or-keep-bashing-the-coalition
If you guys seriously think Labor has any chance in Fadden, you are smoking some serious weed.
This ain’t Aston.
Looks like we shall have coverage on ABC News from 6pm.
Darren Crawford reports on the LNP’s latest plans to further normalise political corruption.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/fadden-uncovers-lnp-plans-for-queensland-crime-forum,17717
From the article: Queensland’s largest legal organised crime syndicate, the Liberal National Party, heads to the mattresses this Saturday to defend its territory in Fadden.
Evan says:
“If you guys seriously think Labor has any chance in Fadden, you are smoking some serious weed.”
Fair enough, a Labor gain is highly unlikely.
But, for whatever it’s worth, the recent Resolve state breakdowns did show the LNP’s primary vote down 7 points in Queensland since the 2022 election, and Labor’s up 7 points.
A few caveats, of course. That’s just one poll, with the margin of error of a smallish state-level sub-sample. And any statewide trend will not be reflected equally across every division.
Moreover, the lower turnout at a by-election will likely comprise a smaller proportion of younger, less LNP-aligned voters.
But if Resolve is in fact detecting an actual swing from LNP to Labor in Queensland, maybe that will put a dent in the LNP’s 10%+ margin in Fadden.
Ven: “Queensland’s largest legal organised crime syndicate, the Liberal National Party”
Indeed, many of Joh’s ministers did serve jail time.
And Campbell Newman had the nerve to criminalise association with bikie gangs!
(While one of Newman’s own MPs, Scott Driscoll, was clocking up the fraud offences that would see him sentenced to 18 months.)
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/disgraced-mp-scott-driscoll-jailed-for-at-least-18-months-20170310-guv4z0.html
Easy win to the LNP , why Labor is wasting money even running a candidate is beyond me.
@Evan
Because its been reported the LNP have spent over $600, 000 to retain it that’s why. I doubt they would be putting that kind of money in if Labor were not contesting. There really isn’t a teal threat in this seat either. You talk about Labor wasting money, but it forces the LNP to throw money at it too. Labor rank and file demanded running a candidate and Labor hierarchy reluctantly agreed. I would have thought that reason alone would have been good enough. Considering the party expects rank and file to do the donkey work for them every election (handing how to vote cards, letterboxing, door knocking etc).
Well, after governing for 29 of the past 34 years, maybe tiredness is forgivable.
But hey, election after election, the media munchkins keep telling us that Labor looks like losing.
And — with the exception of 2012, in the wake of Anna Bligh’s betrayal (“Hey, we’re just going to privatise a few things; sorry we didn’t mention that when you elected us”) — Queenslanders have elected Labor governments. For a third of a century, and counting.
@Oliver Sutton
Your right asset sales were part of it. But I also think time for a change factor was a huge factor that election. Labor had been in for 20 out of the 22 years. The electorate wanted an excuse to get rid of Labor. However, they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for John-Paul Langbroek who wasn’t seen as a credible alternative. Anna Bligh’s excellent management of the floods put her back in the lead. But when Campbell Newman was installed as leader it was game over for Labor. Never in my wildest dreams could I have thought Newman could have pissed all his electoral spoils away in one term.
Thing is, Labor don’t need to come close to actually winning the seat to be considered the “winners” here. It’s a super safe LNP seat held on a double-digit margin, in a state where Labor has underperformed federally in the last few elections, and by-elections typically see swings away from the incumbancy government.
Any sort of swing to Labor will be regarded as a concerning outcome for the LNP. A substantial swing will likely put Dutton’s leadership under serious pressure. And if by some miracle Labor actually win, then Dutton will probably be gone by August.
PN:
When Newman became premier, I remember thinking that he’d probably be in office for a decade or more. Unlike the usual LNP leader, he came across as sensible and moderate and likely to just go slow-and-steady with implementing his government’s agenda.
Then, well… we all know what happened next.
His premiership will be remembered for many decades to come as the crowning example of a newly-elected government pissing away a historic majority and a truly enormous amount of political capital and goodwill through pure hubris and ideological zeal.
Oliver Sutton: I agree with you, the state government might be considered tired if you were an avid Courier Mail reader and were taking account of the constant whingy front page outrage that is designed to the oust the ALP, but they are in reality just a sensible government that has to deal with the problems any government has to. The opposition led by Candoes erstwhile loyal sideman, Mr Crisafulli and containing the same old 2012 faces, Ros Bates ,JP Langbroek,Jarrod Bleijie, Tim Mander and Deb Freckleton, all still on the public purse with no plans to move on and renew. Now that’s tired on my books.
His premiership will be remembered for many decades to come as the crowning example of a newly-elected government pissing away a historic majority and a truly enormous amount of political capital and goodwill through pure hubris and ideological zeal.
@Asha
Yep. When Annastacia Palaszczuk was newly elected premier she mentioned at Queensland Labor state conference that Jeff Seeney told her when she was opposition leader. That Labor would be out of power for at least five terms which drew laughter from the audience.
It’s worth it for Labor to run in this byelection.
At the very least, it will give a gauge of whether there are any winnable seats in Queensland at the next general election, or whether they should accept the Qld federal electorates as not-in-play like the Canadian federal centre-left in Alberta.
A swing to Labor of anything between -2% and 8% wouldn’t surprise me.
Ah, Tim Mander, Princeplanet: grandson of that venerable Queenslander, Gerry Mander. 🙂
Actually, Tim Mander was a classmate of my brother. He came to my engagement party in 1979.
As a non-conservative, do we really want Dutton gone by August?
There is no prospect of any sensible moderate replacing him. Andrew Hastie would just be a slightly more “handsome” version of Dutton, therefore able to peel off a few more female votes while being just as right wing, if not more so. The parallel with Morrison is just so obvious. Would Abbott have won the 2019 election if they reinstated him?
In many ways, the best outcome for Labor is a 5% swing to it, which is significant but probably won’t result in Liberal Party leadership instability.
FWIW, I don’t think the ALP has much of a chance on the Gold Coast. The GC is a bastion of conservative thinking where the local newspaper is even dumber than he Brissy courier. Even the GC battlers have drunk the LNP koolaid and Peter Dutton is a gold coast type guy with many connections down there. Beattie at his height did pretty well and in my opinion the LNP is so out of it these days even the Gold Coast may get sick of them one day , but so long as Rupert Murdoch is alive his papers will stick with the LNP through thick and thin.
Princeplanet @ #4 Friday, July 14th, 2023 – 8:57 am
Yep.All the expatriate Victorians that ended up there after the John Cain Mk2/Kirner/State Bank debacle of the 1980s will have to start dying off sometime.
To Oliver: Tim didn’t seem like the worst guy in the candoe government but he went along for the ride all the same. Thing is these guys are all still there and you wonder how different they would perform than the candoe regime. Regarding the Mr Seeney comment he would have to be one of the most unpleasant characters to have ever entered state politics. He was famous for championing what he labelled the tactical lie. He admitted to telling untruths to achieve what he thought were worthwhile goals IE. winning government off the ALP by hook or by crook. Of course with the local media ( Courier etc.) in full support of this same goal they were not that worried about holding him to account.
I don’t know if I completely agree with this about Stuart Roberts. Gold Coast is very conservative, the amount of waste of space politicians that the LNP have in their state and federal ranks based in the Gold Coast. That continue to get elected election after election is quite astounding.
“One senior federal minister says that if the Liberals win, as he expects, it can’t be taken as a sign voters don’t care about the robo-debt scandal and the trashing of government integrity and accountability. He says there’s no doubt that if Robert were running again, he would be thrown out, such is the anger even Coalition voters are expressing about him.”
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2023/07/15/inside-the-fadden-byelection#mtr
Labor won’t win, but even a small swing to them will be heartening.
Princeplanet says:
“To Oliver: Tim didn’t seem like the worst guy in the candoe government …”
Well, he went to a good school. 😉
Mander was (is?) a, however, a member of the happy-clapper brigade. Perhaps the same crew who snared my sister (sigh!).
Sky News and Sky Regional (ch. 53 on free-to-air) will be televising the results in Fadden from 7 pm, hosted by Andrew Clennell, and with a panel of pollies.
Wow, there’s a blast from the past. Jarrod Bleije. I actually think that his actions as Campbell Newman’s AG were so over the top that they were a major cause of the Newman government’s precipitous fall in popularity. I can still remember the furore over the appointment of the Chief Justice for Queensland! And Bleije was one of THE MOST ideological MPs in the government.
Well at least it seemed that way to me down here.
I also predict a 4% swing to Labor. Enough to put a shiver up the spine of Peter Dutton and the LNP.
C@t
Bleije is still on the opposition frontbench. Shadow Minister for Finance, at the moment. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a contender for the LNP leadership if Labor wins a fourth term in 2024.
I’m on the other side of the country and I remember Bleijie. If 2028 ends up being him vs whoever’s running Labor by then, expect a record third party vote.
(I just googled him to check how his name was spelt – he’s only a few years older than me! Only 30 when he became attorney-general – he must’ve come flying out of the student politics / Young Lib pipeline.)