Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)

Major party starters in place for Fadden, a date set for Rockingham, and nine candidates emerge for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte.

News to report on the three by-elections presently in view – one federal and two state, two with dates confirmed and one to be announced:

• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Fadden by-election on July 15 will be long-serving Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, who won a final round vote of 153 preselectors over Dinesh Palipana, with Fran Ward, Owen Caterer and Craig Hobart falling by the wayside in earlier rounds. Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports a meeting of Labor’s administrative committee last Friday unanimously endorsed Letitia Del Fabbro, a nurse educator who was also the candidate at the May 2022 election.

• Nine candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte, expected to be held in about a fortnight, controversial former Kew MP Tim Smith not being among them. As reported by Rachel Baxendale in The Australian, they are John Roskam, former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs; Sarah Overton, KPMG director; Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, who ran in Box Hill at the November state election; Jason McClintock, a tech business founder who ran in Eltham (and who donated heavily to the party’s state election campaign); David Farrelly, who ran in Pakenham; Jemma Townson, “energy industry communications director and former Matthew Guy and Katie Allen staffer”; Antonietta di Cosmo, 22-year-old “Ryan Smith staffer, champion rower and law student”; Allison Troth, “cancer campaigner and former John Howard staffer”; and Andrew Conlon, “Manningham councillor and maths teacher”. The report says factional conservatives are likely to back Roskam or Werner, while “an opposing factional grouping that coalesces around powerbrokers Frank Greenstein and Holly Byrne” might support Overton, McClintock or Townson.

• The Rockingham by-election to replace Mark McGowan has been set for July 29. The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate will likely be Magenta Marshall, who has won backing from the Right, despite last week saying she was “not sure it’s my time”. Marshall is in her late twenties and works in a “specialised campaigning role” in party headquarters, having previously been an electorate officer to Balcatta MP David Michael.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 comments on “Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)”

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  1. Oakeshott country @ #1057 Monday, June 12th, 2023 – 2:45 pm

    Fortunately Britain’s nuclear deterrent was always a joke but Antony Eden being in charge of it was problematic after some clown of a surgeon tied off his common bile duct.
    He flew to America for restorative surgery but still had a lifetime of septic episodes and developed a pethidine and Benzedrine addiction. All of this may have influenced his last Imperial huzzah in invading Suez.
    Luckily Ike took control of the situation and Macmillan was able to organise the numbers to get rid of him (an area where a parliamentary system works much better than presidential)

    Amphetamines & pethidine are a particularly bad combination with biliary obstruction, but I’m wary of attributing imperial arrogance to illness or medication – or a surgeon’s incompetence. That said, we have a lot more to thank Eisenhower for than Churchill.

  2. Don’t know how anybody thinks saying that if you consider voting no you are racist is a winning strategy. As pointed out above, hardly worked for Hillary when it was remotely suggestible she’d done something similar with the “basket of deplorables” comment.

    You’re better off actually having a visible campaign that doesn’t just let the no campaign lead the news cycle in a way you have to repeatedly respond to.

    Dunno if historically a referendum has polled negatively and pulled up, but it feels like the yes campaign has squandered a lead quicker than normal and now has its work cut out.

  3. Wat: “I think calling anyone who opposes the Voice or even supports it but has concerns about how the Yes campaign is going a bunch of racists is a real winning strategy.”

    You don’t fight racists by giving into their demands. They can’t be reasoned with. They will lie about anything in order to justify their racism. Thinking you can appeal to their better natures is how we got to where we are now. You still think you’re arguing with people who are engaging in good faith. You’re not.

    Draw a line. Too much of their rhetoric is snide innuendo designed to signal to the racists. They know it. They are not interested in engaging for a better outcome. They want there to be no outcome. Call them what they are. Never stop calling them what they are. They are defined by who they appeal to.

  4. clem attlee:

    Monday, June 12, 2023 at 7:29 pm

    [‘I think that the Voice vote is doomed…’]

    I don’t think so. Most of the publicity to it has been expressed, in one way or another, by the “No” case. Expect to see a concerted effort nearer to the date of the referendum. Don’t underestimate Albanese.

  5. Pueo,
    I’ve seen Kraftwerk live. In Sydney, just before Covid. Also, fortuitously for me, the year before Florian Schneider passed away. So it was all the original members.

  6. Mavis: “Expect to see a concerted effort nearer to the date of the referendum. ”

    I fully expect this btw. 90% of the electorate isn’t engaged on the question, and won’t be until 6-8 weeks before the referendum date. The longer it goes on, the more untenable it will become for people trying to distance themselves from the racist cohort that they’ve tied themselves to.

    I expect we’ll get to the “I’m not racist but…” stage of the dialogue in about a month.

  7. C@tmomma @ Monday, June 12, 2023 at 7:46 pm:

    “ABC 7.30 running the Russian line that the Nova Kakhova dam destruction could have been an act of Ukrainian sabotage. On ‘balance ‘ with the Ukrainian accusation that Russia blew it up. ”
    ===================

    You’re kidding. 😡

    Charitably, this is typical, lazy, mediocre journalism, from those incapable of actually assessing the credibly of claims about real occurrences in the physical world.

  8. ABC 7:30 JOURNOS, PLEASE READ THIS:

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/columns/2023/06/8/7405837/

    “THE NOVA KAKHOVA DAM IN UKRAINE
    By Timothy Snyder, an American historian specializing in the history of Central and Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union

    The Nova Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine, controlled by Russia, has been destroyed. One consequence is a humanitarian disaster that, had it not taken place within a war zone, would already have drawn enormous international assistance. Thousands of houses are flooded and tens of thousands of people are in flight or waiting for rescue. Another consequence is ecological mayhem, among other things the loss of wetland and other habitats. A third is the destruction of Ukrainian farmland and other elements of the Ukrainian economy. So much is happening at once that the story is hard to follow. Here are a few thoughts about writing responsibly about the event…”

  9. “… 1. Avoid the temptation to begin the story of this manmade humanitarian and ecological catastrophe by bothsidesing it. That’s not journalism.

    2. Russian spokespersons claiming that Ukraine did something (in this case, blow a dam) is not part of a story of an actual event in the real world. It is part of different story: one about all the outrageous claims Russia has made about Ukraine since the first invasion, in 2014. If Russian claims about Ukrainian actions are to be mentioned, it has to be in that context…”

  10. “… 3. Citing Russian claims next to Ukrainian claims is unfair to the Ukrainians. In this war, what Russian spokespersons have said has almost always been untrue, whereas what Ukrainian spokespersons have said has largely been reliable. The juxtaposition suggests an equality that makes it impossible for the reader to understand that important difference.

    4. If a Russian spokesman (e.g. Dmitri Peskov) must be cited, it must be mentioned that this specific figure has lied about every aspect of this war since it began. This is context. Readers picking up the story in the middle need to know such background…”

  11. “… 5. If Russian propaganda for external consumption is cited, it can help to also cite Russian propaganda for internal consumption. It is interesting that Russian propagandists have been long arguing that Ukrainian dams should be blown, and that a Russian parliamentarian takes for granted that Russia blew the dam and rejoices in the death and destruction that followed.

    6. When a story begins with bothsidesing, readers are being implicitly instructed that an object in the physical world (like a dam) is really just an element of narrative. They are being guided into the wrong genre (literature) right at the moment when analysis is needed. This does their minds a disservice…”

  12. The voice is about ensuring their will always be some sort of Aboriginal advisory body. To prevent future governments being able to axe them and have nothing to replace it with.
    The liberals hate this because they don’t want to listen to most indigenous people as their interest just don’t align.
    Protecting land… hell no for most conservatives
    Create jobs that are supported by government money… nope stuff that, better to throw money at constituents that actually vote for them.

  13. “… 7. Dams are physical objects. Whether or how they can be destroyed is a subject for people who know what they are talking about. Although this valuable NYT story exhibits the above flaws, it has the great merit of treating dams as physical rather than narrative objects. When this exercise is performed, it seems clear that the dam could only have been destroyed by an explosion from the inside.

    8. Russia was in control of the relevant part of the dam when it exploded. This is an elemental part of the context. It comes before what anyone says. When a murder is investigated, detectives think about means. Russia had the means. Ukraine did not…”

  14. I am officially jealous of C@t for seeing ‘Kraftwerk’ live! They are in my top three all time live shows that I want to see.

  15. “… 9. The story doesn’t start at the moment the dam explodes. Readers need to know that for the last fifteen months Russia has been killing Ukrainian civilians and destroying Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, whereas Ukraine has been trying to protect its people and the structures that keep them alive.

    10. The setting also includes history. Military history offers an elemental point. Armies that are attacking do not blow dams to block their own path of advance. Armies that are retreating do blow dams to slow the advance of the other side. At the relevant moment, Ukraine was advancing, and Russia was retreating…”

  16. “…The pursuit of objectivity does not mean treating every event as a coin flip, a fifty-fifty chance between two different public statements. Objectivity demands thinking about all the objects — physical objects, physical placement of people — that must be in the story, as well as all of the settings — contemporary and historical — that a reader would need in order to come away from the story with greater understanding.”

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/columns/2023/06/8/7405837/

  17. Pi:

    Monday, June 12, 2023 at 8:00 pm

    I fully expect this btw. 90% of the electorate isn’t engaged on the question, and won’t be until 6-8 weeks before the referendum date. The longer it goes on, the more untenable it will become for people trying to distance themselves from the racist cohort that they’ve tied themselves to.’]

    Yep!

    [‘I expect we’ll get to the “I’m not racist but…” stage of the dialogue in about a month.’]

    And yep!

    Quite sad really that the question’s moot.

  18. On the voice. I agree with much of the sentiment expressed here tonight. Calling people racists is most definitely not a winning strategy. The campaign currently lacks a central figure to motivate support for Yes. As I said last week, there was a lot of publicity around Shaquille O’Neal last year being part of the yes campaign. That is exactly the sort of publicity they need now. He is more than a global celebrity. He is effectively a global brand and has a profile that is capable of driving the sort of campaign that Yes needs to bring people with them. While the messaging about the voice is important, a clear marketing strategy that makes voting yes appealing to a many as possible is the way to go at this point.

  19. I want to draw particular attention to point 3 of Timothy Snyder’s critique of lazy ‘both-sides’ journalism regarding Russia’s criminal destruction of the Kakhova Dam. Presenting a new claim by a proven liar with the same credibility as an opposing claim by a reliable informant makes a mockery of that latter party’s previous adherence to sticking to the truth. It also reassures liars that they can keep on lying without having to suffer the penalty that they should: loss of credibility for their future claims. Therefore, this approach biases the information space in favour of those who deliberately unmoor their assertions from reality, in pursuit of messaging tailored purely for its emotional or psychological effect on its intended target audience. This is patently unfair to the opponent of that deliberately lying party.

  20. JJHall: “Calling people racists is most definitely not a winning strategy. ”

    I prefer to work on the premise that appealing to racists is not a winning strategy. I don’t know why people are afraid to call them what they are. It’s weird. It’s like you’re hoping that they won’t be mean to you.

    We are where we are now because people are trying to talk about anything except about what the issue is. Dutton and Littleproud are overtly appealing to these people. Trying to act like that isn’t happening isn’t helping anyone.

  21. Pueo,
    I’ve seen Kraftwerk live. In Sydney, just before Covid. Also, fortuitously for me, the year before Florian Schneider passed away. So it was all the original members.

    Lucky you. 🙂

    While I appreciate the draw of live concerts, the practicalities leave me cold. Long waits, bad acoustics etc. I might miss an iconic concert moment – but if it’s any good, I’ll watch it later online (copyright permitting.)

  22. I agree that 7.30’s piece on the dam left a bit to be desired. On the “Qui Bono?” issue alone it’s pretty obvious who did what.
    Also, the report on the Higgins issue. The thrust of the piece is that it’s all a big mess. Unarguable that, but their fairly wide ranging coverage somehow missed out the liberal cover up at the time.
    Oh, & Michaelia Cash whingeing about someone displaying indignation must set some new bar for something.

  23. My all time 3 best live gigs:

    Spiderbait 2004
    The Cruel Sea 1998
    Above and Beyond 2015

    Those are the ones that stand out. I’ve see a lot of live music though.

  24. I am sure when the Yes campaign actually starts things will move a bit with the polling. It is a bit much to expect the public to be engaged and build support without an actual campaign to focus on.

  25. Enough Already:

    Please stop it! You’ve attempted to turn this site into that which is almost unreconsible from what it once was, many former posters, absent. Indeed I’m considering joining them, the moderator having giving you more chances than Carlton Cole.

  26. Re the Yes and No campaigns: a lie has already gone halfway round the World while the truth is just putting on its shoes.

  27. unfortunately the greens are not in government its up to labor to negociate and if the greens want more housing whiy are they aposing housing in there councils

  28. The Special prosecutor in the Trump case is apparently worried about a witness tampering by Trump. I wonder if they will request a denial of bail?

  29. Oh, & Michaelia Cash whingeing about someone displaying indignation must set some new bar for something.

    Barrel scraping?

  30. Its the Greiner Rule – looks like the whole Higgins/Lehrmann saga will be the first FICAC matter.

    Would be good to get to the bottom of Wong and Albo’s involvement (if any) – as well as Katy.

  31. Steve

    “ Re the Yes and No campaigns: a lie has already gone halfway round the World while the truth is just putting on its shoes.”

    Isn’t Morrison on his way to London now?

    So Silvio Berlusconi has died and gone to ? I’m sure I’ll get over it.
    If they cremate the body it might be self combusting.

    With Silvio having at least five kids by several partners, I can imagine an interesting inheritance to settle. The odds of RE Italian politics still getting as much largesse would have to be low.

  32. BSA Bob,
    Yes it’s easy to see why 7.30 is floundering. They appear to be reluctant to take a firm position on any stories that may be controversial to any extent at all! I believe it’s the chilling effect that high profile defamation cases, such as Lehrmann’s, has on their decision-making when they are crafting their stories. To the extent that it makes them virtually useless wastes of time to watch.

  33. You never did answer this question the other day LVT: Is it your assertion that Peter Dutton IS NOT appealing to a significant racist cohort in his opposition to the voice? Yes or no?

  34. Enough Already:

    Please stop it! You’ve attempted to turn this site into that which is almost unreconsible from what it once was, many former posters, absent. Indeed I’m considering joining them, the moderator having giving you more chances than Carlton Cole.

    You might consider installing the, uh, “Carlton Cole Plugin” to filter out certain posts.

  35. I have to agree, calling an undecided voter or a soft no voter “a racist” is entirely the wrong strategy from some in the Yes camp.

  36. Katy was on the grassy knoll. Katy deep cleaned a crime scene.
    Katy masturbated on a parliament desk.
    Katy was flying the plane in Lost.

    The distractions are everywhere. The problems of rape in this country swept under the carpet.

  37. If you’re in the no camp, you’re either racist yourself, or you have no problem standing up to be counted with racists. You can dream up as many weasel words as you like, but that’s the reality.

  38. I think Albo will keep standing by Gallagher. I think she misled Parliament but it’s probably not so clear cut for the public to be agitated about. She made a poor decision to get involved in this in the first place.

    Ride it out Albo.

  39. Mavis @ Monday, June 12, 2023 at 8:49 pm:
    =================================

    Mavis, there is nothing offensive in anything I have posted today. If you are so triggered by Russian malfeasance being called out, more so than you are of, say, Trump malfeasance being called out, perhaps ponder why that is so.

  40. Katy didnt fake the moon landing – but she did meet privately with David Sharaz and reviewed a transcript of the Interview (a week before it aired ) according to News. Notwithstanding she told the Parliament she had no advance knowledge.

    If thats true – it suggests someone in Team Katy or Sharaz/Higgins have leaked against Katy because only an insider would know this detail . But who?

  41. Did Gallagher send her partner in to watch the Lehrmann trial so that she could be kept abreast of the trial proceedings before she was to be called as a witness?

  42. EA, what Mavis is triggered by is you posting eight comments in barely five minutes that bear no relation to the topic of the site you’re on. Perhaps you should find a more appropriate forum.

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