Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)

Major party starters in place for Fadden, a date set for Rockingham, and nine candidates emerge for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte.

News to report on the three by-elections presently in view – one federal and two state, two with dates confirmed and one to be announced:

• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Fadden by-election on July 15 will be long-serving Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, who won a final round vote of 153 preselectors over Dinesh Palipana, with Fran Ward, Owen Caterer and Craig Hobart falling by the wayside in earlier rounds. Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports a meeting of Labor’s administrative committee last Friday unanimously endorsed Letitia Del Fabbro, a nurse educator who was also the candidate at the May 2022 election.

• Nine candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte, expected to be held in about a fortnight, controversial former Kew MP Tim Smith not being among them. As reported by Rachel Baxendale in The Australian, they are John Roskam, former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs; Sarah Overton, KPMG director; Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, who ran in Box Hill at the November state election; Jason McClintock, a tech business founder who ran in Eltham (and who donated heavily to the party’s state election campaign); David Farrelly, who ran in Pakenham; Jemma Townson, “energy industry communications director and former Matthew Guy and Katie Allen staffer”; Antonietta di Cosmo, 22-year-old “Ryan Smith staffer, champion rower and law student”; Allison Troth, “cancer campaigner and former John Howard staffer”; and Andrew Conlon, “Manningham councillor and maths teacher”. The report says factional conservatives are likely to back Roskam or Werner, while “an opposing factional grouping that coalesces around powerbrokers Frank Greenstein and Holly Byrne” might support Overton, McClintock or Townson.

• The Rockingham by-election to replace Mark McGowan has been set for July 29. The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate will likely be Magenta Marshall, who has won backing from the Right, despite last week saying she was “not sure it’s my time”. Marshall is in her late twenties and works in a “specialised campaigning role” in party headquarters, having previously been an electorate officer to Balcatta MP David Michael.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 comments on “Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)”

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  1. The newest victims of a notorious Russian ransomware gang say they have been terrified by the latest cyber attack on an Australian bond broker that has billions of dollars under advice.
    FIIG Securities, which has 6,000 Australian investors and $5 billion under advice, confirmed over the weekend that an “unauthorised third party” had hacked its systems.
    Russian cybercriminal group AlphV, also known as BlackCat, has claimed responsibility for the attack, posting to the dark web what appears to be evidence of drivers licences, passports and reports stolen from the broker. The group claims to have 385 gigabytes of material in its possession, including commercially confidential data, according to the cyber threat intelligence platform @FalconFeedsio on Twitter.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-12/russian-hackers-claim-to-steal-data-from-australian-bond-broker/102469572

  2. Mozziemp @ #1050 Monday, June 12th, 2023 – 2:57 pm

    I asked one of the recipients if he had read the “Uluru Statement from the Heart”, but he had not. So I sent him a copy and after he had read the Uluru statement he told me he thought it was good and would have believed it but not after reading the Fake notice.

    That’s worrying. How do you deprogram someone who has been conned? I wish I knew. Tell them they are wrong? Tell them they are stupid to believe the lies? Provide opposing information? Explain that they have been conned by the best? Invite them to question you? Ask them to read the statement again? I wish I knew.

    FWIW: https://ulurustatemdev.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/UluruStatementfromtheHeartPLAINTEXT.pdf

  5. The sad part is that he thought the Uluru statement was well-written and would have believed it. I will be seeing him tomorrow and let him know there is no such identity so the Freedom of Information April 2023 is fake news and he is being conned.

  6. I think I know who is giving out the fake news and if it is confirmed I’ll have a go at the liar. If it is confirmed he is a member of Pauline Hanson One Nation Party.

  7. Mozziemp @ #1056 Monday, June 12th, 2023 – 3:13 pm

    I think I know who is giving out the fake news and if it is confirmed I’ll have a go at the liar. If it is confirmed he is a member of Pauline Hanson One Nation Party.

    I could well be wrong but can’t deliberate misinformation like this be reported to the AEC

  8. The AEC is all over Thorpe’s tweet (the one telling people to boycott the referendum), pointing out that voting is compulsory.

    So we have an Australian Senator encouraging people to break the law?

  13. It is about time Drumpf got his just desserts. There are also a few ex-and non-ex politicians in Australia who should be in the dock as well imo. There have been enough shenanigans to warrant more than a few warrants!

  15. zoomster @ #1060 Monday, June 12th, 2023 – 3:31 pm

    The AEC is all over Thorpe’s tweet (the one telling people to boycott the referendum), pointing out that voting is compulsory.

    So we have an Australian Senator encouraging people to break the law?

    I take it you have no opinion on this. Just reporting news ..?

  16. RUSSIA EXACERBATES KAKHOVA DAM WAR CRIME: MURDERS EVACUEES

    “Three civilians were killed and 10 others wounded after Russian forces opened fire on a boat carrying flood evacuees to the Ukrainian-controlled city of Kherson. A 74-year-old man used his body to shield a woman from Russian fire and was hit in the back, Reuters reported. Two of the 10 people wounded were law enforcement officers.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/12/russia-ukraine-war-live-counteroffensive-seeing-first-localised-results-says-kyiv-icc-probe-of-kakhovka-dam-disaster-has-begun

  17. Rex Douglas
    I take it you have no opinion on this. Just reporting news ..?

    I have an opinion on Senator Thorpe’s conduct. Do you want to hear it? Warning: It will be laden with expletives.

  18. Today’s ISW assessment of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts:

    “Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and made territorial gains on June 10 and 11. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations in the Bakhmut area, and Russian sources reported continued Ukrainian ground attacks on Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks. Geolocated footage and Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian forces liberated multiple settlements during continued ground attacks south, southwest, and southeast of Velyka Novosilka in western Donetsk Oblast. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces continued to attack southwest of Orikhiv in Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukrainian forces made gains in this area.

    Ukrainian forces made visually verified advances in western Donetsk Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast, which Russian sources confirmed but sought to downplay. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces advanced 300 to 1,500 meters in southern Ukraine. Malyar and other Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces made gains south of Velyka Novosilka between June 10 and 11, including liberating Makarivka, Neskuchne, Blahodatne, Storozheve, and Novodarivka. Some Russian sources reported that battles are ongoing in “grey zone” or contested areas or that Ukrainian forces are operating in areas that Russian forces did not fully occupy before Ukrainian attacks in southern Ukraine. Russian sources are likely referring to Ukrainian territorial advances through Russian defenses as capturing ”grey zones” in order to downplay Ukrainian gains and omit reporting on Ukrainian forces breaking through defensive lines. Ukrainian forces liberated several towns, but claims of a Ukrainian “breakthrough” are premature at this time.”

    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-11-2023

  19. Thank you all for your comments. I agree there is only one NIAA and it’s not the one on the notice. I think I will mention that that notice is illegal and if not corrected, I will inform the AEC as it does mention “The consequences of a ‘yes’ vote on the voice.

  21. Rex

    Just saying what the AEC is saying.

    Of course, just as FN people don’t know what they want and need people like you to tell them, the AEC may have got it wrong on the legalities (although somehow I doubt it).

  22. Rex Douglas,

    Have you caught up with Mr Bowe’s demand that you respond to Lynchpin? He posted it at 10.14pm last night if you want to go back and read it for yourself.

  23. zoomster @ #1073 Monday, June 12th, 2023 – 4:14 pm

    Rex

    Just saying what the AEC is saying.

    Of course, just as FN people don’t know what they want and need people like you to tell them, the AEC may have got it wrong on the legalities (although somehow I doubt it).

    Clear to me FN people are united on truth and treaty. I support them on that. LibLab point scoring shouldn’t get in the way of that. The AEC will do what it has to do, according to Crown law.

  28. SF Chief Clerk: Aileen Cannon’s Appointment to Docs Case is PERMANENT and NOT Temporary.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/11/2174776/-SF-Chief-Clerk-Aileen-Cannon-s-Appointment-to-Docs-Case-is-PERMANENT-and-NOT-Temporary

    Was it Charles/ Graham?
    They were correct.

    “A) The possibility of her recusing herself — I wouldn’t expect it. If she did, it would be a self-admittance of “bias” and would be a pretty stunning thing to do. While it’s certainly a possibility that she could turn out to have ethics enough to remove herself from the case, this is the least possible outcome, IMO.

    B) The other argument I’ve seen, which is that she could be forcefully recused for “bias”: this is also very likely a stretch, considering that her prior decision was not reversed over direct accusations of bias, but because she had no actual jurisdiction to appoint a Special Master to look at the documents in that particular situation and that her decision was likely based on Trump being a former President. While that smackdown was obviously a severe one, this is likely not nearly enough to forcefully recuse unless the 11th circuit extrapolates her previous behavior to imply that she couldn’t be impartial now.

    So, yeah. Barring any shocking behavior or decisions during the course of the trial or a surprise from Cannon, herself, she’s here to stay. And her power over this case in terms of when the trial date will be set, as well as which evidence is allowed to be presented to the jury (and about a hundred other actions she could take) is enormous.

    As SLATE pointed out on Friday: yes, she could absolutely sink the entire federal case. And there’s nothing that can be done about it.

    One can only hope that Jack Smith and the DOJ have some tricks up their sleeve, here, because the 11th circuit is very likely not going to interfere in this twist of fate.”

  30. “Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar, has announced the liberation of Storozheve [about halfway between Zaporizhzhia City and Donetsk City, slightly closer to the latter, just inside the western border of Donetsk Oblast] by Ukrainian marines on her Telegram channel…

    … According to Russian military bloggers, the battle is on now for Urozhaine to the south, as the Ukrainians fight their way village to village, on both sides of the river. Ukrainian officials say the Russians blew up a small dam on the Mokri Yaly upstream, in an effort to hinder the offensive.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/12/russia-ukraine-war-live-counteroffensive-seeing-first-localised-results-says-kyiv-icc-probe-of-kakhovka-dam-disaster-has-begun

  32. Rex Douglas
    Because white people can’t speak from a FN cultural perspective.

    A white person can challenge a FN person – if that FN person chooses to propagate falsehoods.

  33. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, June 12, 2023 at 5:05 pm
    Lynchpin @ #763 Sunday, June 11th, 2023 – 6:54 pm

    “A white person is in no position to negatively attack a blak person re their position on the Voice”

    Why? According to what moral grounds?
    Because white people can’t speak from a FN cultural perspective.

    ————————-

    I am not surprised that you classify “a FN cultural perspective” as singular.

  35. “I am not surprised that you classify “a FN cultural perspective” as singular.”

    I’m not sure that is a fair reading of the text. In context it seems well extraordinarily unfair.

  36. Team Katich,
    By the tone of Mr Bowe’s intervention last night, I don’t think that he was joking at all. I mean, look at what he said. Do you think he would speak about Lynchpin that way? And if so, why would he choose Lynchpin to mock?

  38. Mozziemp @ #1047 Monday, June 12th, 2023 – 2:47 pm

    This is being handed out to people in my area and people are believing it. I checked-googled NIAA there is no such National Institute of Aboriginal Affairs. It is fake news. People believe it because of the so-called freedom of information April 2023.

    NIAA is the National Indigenous Australians Association (https://www.niaa.gov.au/).

    An NIAA representative told AAP FactCheck the documents “simply reflect the broad range of comments of participants involved in the process led by the Referendum Council in 2016 and 2017”.

    They added: “These documents were released consistent with the FOI Act … these are not ‘secret documents’ as claimed in the FAIR Australia email. Communiques for each of the regional dialogues were publicly released in 2016 – 2017.

    https://www.aap.com.au/factcheck/email-misleads-with-secret-voice-documents-claim/

  39. Mozziemp @ #1047 Monday, June 12th, 2023 – 2:47 pm

    This is being handed out to people in my area and people are believing it. I checked-googled NIAA there is no such National Institute of Aboriginal Affairs. It is fake news. People believe it because of the so-called freedom of information April 2023.

    That’s a dead giveaway. There is a backlog of FOI requests going back many years …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/21/australia-foi-freedom-of-information-backlog-587-cases-unresolved-more-than-three-years

    Like so many other things, Australia’s FOI system is utterly broken. Or, to put it another way, it is working exactly the way our politicians want it to be.

  40. GDP growth forecast, 2023

    India: 5.9%
    China: 5.2%
    Indonesia: 5%
    Saudi: 3.1%
    Turkey: 3%
    Mexico: 1.8%
    US: 1.6%
    Spain: 1.5%
    Canada: 1.5%
    Japan: 1.3%
    Brazil: 0.9%
    Russia: 0.7%
    France: 0.7%
    Italy: 0.7%
    Germany: -0.1%
    UK: -0.3%

    (IMF)

  41. Rex

    We have a lot of evidence that around 85% of FN people support Voice. We don’t have any evidence for their support for Truth/Treaty.

    I’d assume it’s around the same as for Voice.

    We also know that the representatives of FN people have asked that Voice comes first.

    Which is logical, because you need something like the Voice to conduct Truth/Treaty (as the state of Victoria has recognised, by setting up a Voice-equivalent to do these things).

  42. Cultures overlap. They are not monoliths, standing alone. But if you do choose to frame a debate in cultural terms, so as to exclude certain voices, but nevertheless then ask those excluded voices to decide the outcome of that debate, then how should those excluded voices decide? Perhaps the excluded voices should take their cue from the majority of those who are in the debate. Would not choosing otherwise be an insult to the culture, and indirectly an insult to its people?

    https://ulurustatemdev.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/UluruStatementfromtheHeartPLAINTEXT.pdf

  43. Police overloading on updates

    “ Acting assistant commissioner David Waddell will hold a press conference outside the Cessnock police station on Tuesday morning at 8am.”

  44. WeWantPaul says:
    Monday, June 12, 2023 at 5:47 pm
    “I am not surprised that you classify “a FN cultural perspective” as singular.”

    I’m not sure that is a fair reading of the text. In context it seems well extraordinarily unfair.

    —————————

    Always willing to reconsider my opinion when Rex does 😉

  47. zoomster says:
    Monday, June 12, 2023 at 6:01 pm
    Rex

    We have a lot of evidence that around 85% of FN people support Voice. We don’t have any evidence for their support for Truth/Treaty.

    I’d assume it’s around the same as for Voice.

    We also know that the representatives of FN people have asked that Voice comes first.

    Which is logical, because you need something like the Voice to conduct Truth/Treaty (as the state of Victoria has recognised, by setting up a Voice-equivalent to do these things).

    ________________

    Your guess at 85% is right as we do have some evidence for Treaty.

    More here: https://www.reconciliation.org.au/publication/2022-australian-reconciliation-barometer/

  48. Old Spoke
    I checked the correct site and looked at the FOIs published and one would have to look very hard and interpret those publications to put all those points in the Fake note and hand them out as fact.

  49. Kevin Bonham
    @kevinbonham
    This was on track to happen next month but we’re here already. #ResolvePM is the first Voice poll to have the Yes vote below 50% forced choice. (49-51, dow

  50. An employee at New Zealand’s national broadcaster, RNZ, has been placed on leave amid an investigation into how wire service news reports on the Ukraine war were rewritten to insert a pro-Russia slant.

    Evidence emerged on Friday and Saturday that a number of articles attributed to the Reuters wire service or the BBC had been edited by RNZ to insert new sentences and paragraphs. In a radio interview on Monday, RNZ’s chief executive, Paul Thompson, described the edits as “pro-Kremlin garbage”, and said the news services would search thousands of articles “with a fine-tooth comb”.

    About 250 had already been reviewed, he said. Sixteen articles that had been “inappropriately edited” had been corrected and had an editorial note appended. “It is so disappointing, I’m gutted, it’s painful,” he said. “We have to get to the bottom of how it happened.”New Zealand’s minister for broadcasting, Willie Jackson, was briefed on the matter over the weekend and said it was a “major issue” and “unprecedented for RNZ”.

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