Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)

Major party starters in place for Fadden, a date set for Rockingham, and nine candidates emerge for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte.

News to report on the three by-elections presently in view – one federal and two state, two with dates confirmed and one to be announced:

• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Fadden by-election on July 15 will be long-serving Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, who won a final round vote of 153 preselectors over Dinesh Palipana, with Fran Ward, Owen Caterer and Craig Hobart falling by the wayside in earlier rounds. Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports a meeting of Labor’s administrative committee last Friday unanimously endorsed Letitia Del Fabbro, a nurse educator who was also the candidate at the May 2022 election.

• Nine candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte, expected to be held in about a fortnight, controversial former Kew MP Tim Smith not being among them. As reported by Rachel Baxendale in The Australian, they are John Roskam, former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs; Sarah Overton, KPMG director; Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, who ran in Box Hill at the November state election; Jason McClintock, a tech business founder who ran in Eltham (and who donated heavily to the party’s state election campaign); David Farrelly, who ran in Pakenham; Jemma Townson, “energy industry communications director and former Matthew Guy and Katie Allen staffer”; Antonietta di Cosmo, 22-year-old “Ryan Smith staffer, champion rower and law student”; Allison Troth, “cancer campaigner and former John Howard staffer”; and Andrew Conlon, “Manningham councillor and maths teacher”. The report says factional conservatives are likely to back Roskam or Werner, while “an opposing factional grouping that coalesces around powerbrokers Frank Greenstein and Holly Byrne” might support Overton, McClintock or Townson.

• The Rockingham by-election to replace Mark McGowan has been set for July 29. The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate will likely be Magenta Marshall, who has won backing from the Right, despite last week saying she was “not sure it’s my time”. Marshall is in her late twenties and works in a “specialised campaigning role” in party headquarters, having previously been an electorate officer to Balcatta MP David Michael.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 comments on “Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)”

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  1. The various LNP Federal governments, with various PMs since and including Howard, have allowed the “embedding ” of corruption and influence to extend extensively throughout the “inner workings” of the federal public service and its partnership with contracted private enterprise organizations.

    The use of the “big four” accountancy firms and the “revolving doors” of employment exchange between public service, politics and private business have “pulverised” any belief in honesty and integrity existing within the “sordid” relationship between big business/corporations and elected political officials.

    Dishonesty and corruption have become the main tenet of all LNP decision making.

    The attempted escalation of “the who knew what/when” Lehrmann debacle by the LNP underlines and highlights that the LNP has not benefited in any way from their expulsion from government Federally and in all but one state, the ridiculously over represented Tasmania.

    “the voters always get it right” is often touted as a truism and is looking so.

    The NACC, will be in all likelihood be the end of the Liberal Party with any remaining Liberal players being too embarrassed to be associated with what has essentially become a “mob of wannabe crooks and spivs”.

    It is no surprise that the Nationals backbencher, Barnaby Joyce has become the most effective spokesperson for the LNP.

    Just imagine all young people and not so young unelected citizens ” getting on the grog” and “high tailing” back to Parliament House to recover!

    Liberal Party self-awareness is non existent. Barnaby, a suitable role model.

  2. Ven
    Post traumatic stress is not whiplash
    Whiplash is a soft tissue injury of the neck due to a rapid and vigorous movement caused by sudden deacceleration.

    It gained notoriety in the 80 s as it was frequently cited in third party accident cases and resulted in large payouts despite being difficult to definitively diagnose.

  3. Itza:

    The whole Trump family is about pursuit of personal wealth at the expense of others. They define the ‘in it for what they can get’ ethos faithfully espoused by populist reactionaries.


  4. gollsays:
    Monday, June 12, 2023 at 10:07 am
    ………..
    ……….
    It is no surprise that the Nationals backbencher, Barnaby Joyce has become the most effective spokesperson for the LNP.

    Just imagine all young people and not so young unelected citizens ” getting on the grog” and “high tailing” back to Parliament House to recover!

    Liberal Party self-awareness is non existent. Barnaby, a suitable role model.

    This!
    That those staffers thought it was better to go to Minister’s office and rest rather than take a cab and go home.
    How many times that did we think that Joyce was inebreiated during Question time.

  5. A new group of federal MPs from across the political divide are collaborating to bolster the ranks of women in public office as part of a fresh drive to train and mentor women for political careers in all tiers of government.

    Labor MP Sally Sitou, a co-chair of the cross-party group which will be launched in Parliament House on Thursday, said the immediate goal was to mentor and support staffers working in the building to take on leadership roles or consider running for office. Labor MP Sally Sitou, Liberal MP Bridget Archer and Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young are co-chairs of a new federal parliamentary group aimed at boosting the ranks of women in public office.

    “The key purpose of the group is to really show that we ought to see more women in parliament across the spectrum. I say that as someone from the Labor Party, but we’re better served when there are more women in the Greens and independents and the Coalition,” Sitou said. “There are some fantastic women who are working as staffers. We want them to see a role for themselves at local, state or federal government as well.”

    The group, called the Parliamentary Friends Group of Women for Election, will also be co-chaired by Liberal MP Bridget Archer and Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young. It will support the broader work of the Women for Election (WFE) organisation, which in March received a $5 million federal grant to provide training and resources for women candidates in all tiers of government, particularly those from diverse and under-represented communities.

  6. Anyone who hasn’t hit a roo hasn’t driven very far. It’s like they are attracted to the vehicle. I used to wonder if it was the lights. The second last hit a few years ago was interesting. I was leaving town going from 50 kph limit up to 80, so was probably doing about 60. The roo jumped out, and ran alongside the car, and I’m now slowing down, before it got ahead of the car, now probably doing 40 and slowing, and I’m thinking it’ll piss off sideways, but no, it’s crossing and now ahead and gets hit at about 20. It was unpleasant, happening at such slow speed, one of those time stand still moments. It made me wonder if they are attracted to the ‘movement’, the big fast thing, like a mob, and are drawn to ‘run with it’.

    LR, in another life, I used to hang around the Cobar area a bit. Cornish miners and wild country, and the mighty Darling not far away. Up to Louth, and on and on.

    Knock Knock
    Who’s here?
    Wilcannia
    Wilcannia Who?
    Wilcannia beat that!


  7. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Monday, June 12, 2023 at 10:08 am
    Ven
    Post traumatic stress is not whiplash
    Whiplash is a soft tissue injury of the neck due to a rapid and vigorous movement caused by sudden deacceleration.

    It gained notoriety in the 80 s as it was frequently cited in third party accident cases and resulted in large payouts despite being difficult to definitively diagnose.

    OC
    Will Post Traumatic stress cause vomitting as ‘Late Riser’@8:47 am suggested?

  8. I saw the interview with Max C-M on the ABC News show on TV this morning. The new position The Greens have appears to be that they will negotiate for an immediate cash injection between $500 million and $2.5 billion into Social and Affordable Housing and for the federal government to make an effort to negotiate with the states and territories about the rental crisis.

    Now that sounds more realistic.

  9. On rural driving and hitting roos, Qld Main Roads did some study of this back in the 1980s. They found a substantial majority of kangaroo hits were at dusk or dawn, when the kangaroos were out feeding.

    QTMR adopted some work practice rules to avoid work driving in rural areas in those hours. Better to drive before or after. There was a noticeable drop on kangaroo collisions.

  10. zoomster @ #900 Monday, June 12th, 2023 – 8:48 am

    And, of course, in this case they’ll say they’ve shown they’re willing to negotiate but Labor isn’t.

    How amusing that the Labor partisans are now using the Green’s demonstrated willingness to negotiate to demonize them.

    It surely can’t be long before they start demonizing the Greens for being left of centre at all. Goddam commies!

  11. Without diminishing the suffering of the victims but the Australian compensation system before it was reformed in the 2000s produced some unusual results.
    Australia was the only country to have an epidemic of wrist repetitive strain injuries after the introduction of computer keyboards. In the international literature this became known as “Kangaroo Paw”.

    I am sure our lawyers could comment (although I don’t think any of them work for Stack’s or Gerald Malouf)

  12. My first roo hit was in Queensland somewhere in the middle of nowhere. I saw the mob so had came to a complete stop. The roo in question jump towards and into the headlight, fell over and hopped away.

  13. I have now seen a photo of the dead fauna. It looks like it was a Rock Wallaby or a Wallaroo. Thank goodness it wasn’t a Big Red, which I have spotted on one occasion around these parts. It was just sitting on its haunches by the side of the road giving itself a bath in the first rays of sunshine at the top of the hill. 🙂

    We’ve also got wild deer around here and I almost ran into a massive buck one night on the back road to home. I thought it was some sort of apparition! But I slammed on the brakes, missed it by that much and it just stared at me through the windscreen and then went on its way back into the bush.

  14. Well I suffered from wrist repetitive strain injuries, it hurts but the solution is a simple operation, and I can attest it is very effective. I am told the operation is even simpler now as they have moved to keyhole surgery.

  15. My God, what a terrible tragedy near Greta last night. May everyone who has lost someone, at that time and place or elsewhere, receive comfort. Thank you to all those who responded.

  16. The whole question of compensation for injury is fascinating. As a young man, I had a major back injury needing surgery and while it was definitely work related, a battle was set up with the head of department (for whom I had enormous admiration and respect) as liability was denied. I was insured, surgery went ahead, I had other things to deal with. We discussed this years later, and he made the point that he saw many cases of work related back injuries (haven’t we all by now) and that genuine or otherwise, the prospect of compensation was a negative placebo to healing – there was a return in not getting better.

    Lots to discuss, for and against, the need to look after the genuinely injured, the whole system of exaggerated billing and settlement for compensation cases, the money hived off to third parties, and so on. Must away, man coming about a new gate.

    Enjoy your King’s Birthday. That’s emetic.

  17. As the Greens position was, we are going to stop action on social housing unless there is more action on social housing they were always on a hiding to nothing.

  18. Regarding T****’s followers, and as a mere amateur human, I posit that once you’re invested in a con (e.g. in T****) it is very hard to admit your mistake. The embarrassment is too much, especially among others who are similarly invested. Excuses will be found.

    January 6, 2020 was peak T****. His influence will continue fading. The dance of the Republicans is where the interest lies.

  19. Oakeshott Country @ #964 Monday, June 12th, 2023 – 10:29 am

    Without diminishing the suffering of the victims but the Australian compensation system before it was reformed in the 2000s produced some unusual results.
    Australia was the only country to have an epidemic of wrist repetitive strain injuries after the introduction of computer keyboards. In the international literature this became known as “Kangaroo Paw”.

    I am sure our lawyers could comment (although I don’t think any of them work for Stack’s or Gerald Malouf)

    I suffered a severe case when building a financial model for Tubemakers Ltd in 1981, using a primitive IBM terminal, in their offices, which were opposite the Tubemakers Club in Industrial Drive, Newcastle. I can assure you it was not imaginary. I was incapable of holding even a cup of coffee for weeks. Perhaps rather stupidly, I didn’t sue.

  20. From the self-aware Lars Team ™

    The problem with the indictments of Trump is – if they make him the certain Republican nominee, they also make Biden the certain Democrat nominee and the more than likely winner.

    Cannot be good to have a 82-86 year old with that much power and authority vested in him.

    The IPA patron, Rupert Murdoch, is 93.

  21. yabba @ #974 Monday, June 12th, 2023 – 10:45 am

    Oakeshott Country @ #964 Monday, June 12th, 2023 – 10:29 am

    Without diminishing the suffering of the victims but the Australian compensation system before it was reformed in the 2000s produced some unusual results.
    Australia was the only country to have an epidemic of wrist repetitive strain injuries after the introduction of computer keyboards. In the international literature this became known as “Kangaroo Paw”.

    I am sure our lawyers could comment (although I don’t think any of them work for Stack’s or Gerald Malouf)

    I suffered a severe case when building a financial model for Tubemakers Ltd in 1981, using a primitive IBM terminal, in their offices, which were opposite the Tubemakers Club in Industrial Drive, Newcastle. I can assure you it was not imaginary. I was incapable of holding even a cup of coffee for weeks. Perhaps rather stupidly, I didn’t sue.

    Or as I said yabba, perhaps not. Did you go to the Mozart Mass?

  22. My dad hit a sheep once when we were on a family holiday driving through a rural area. I think they were on the long paddock. So we slowed down, but if you think kangaroos are stupid, then sheep say, hold my beer! One of the things decided to buck out of nowhere and run in front of the car! Even though we were only doing about 20km per hour it still hit the car with a thud! And it caused a bit of damage as well!

  23. Steve777
    The USA has been in worse position than this, McCarthyism would have been no fun, same party, different time.

  24. @Confessions: It never really works. Stalin Jnr didn’t replace Stalin. Mao Jnr didn’t replace Mao. Enver Hoxha’s kids didn’t replace Enver Hoxha. So on.

    If you count North Korea as a personality cult, then generations inheriting the cult has worked there, but it’s kind of hard to tell what happens in North Korea really.

    Baby Doc Duvalier in Haiti is the only other one that really leaps to mind of a successful father-son personality cult transition.

    I can’t see the MAGA cult genuinely warming to the nepo baby.

  25. Lars Von Trier @ #934 Monday, June 12th, 2023 – 9:46 am

    The problem with the indictments of Trump is – if they make him the certain Republican nominee, they also make Biden the certain Democrat nominee and the more than likely winner.

    Cannot be good to have a 82-86 year old with that much power and authority vested in him.

    It’s fine with Biden. Biden delegates. Not like he’d be the first US president with an infirmity either, if it came to that.

  26. Eighty percent of likely Republican primary voters in a new poll think former President Trump should still be able to get back to the Oval Office even if he’s convicted in the classified documents case. A CBS News-YouGov poll, released Sunday, found that just 20 percent of likely GOP primary voters think Trump shouldn’t be able to serve again as president if he’s convicted over his alleged mishandling of classified documents.
    Just 12 percent of likely GOP primary voters said they’re more concerned the the documents were a national security risk, compared to 76 percent who said they’re more concerned that the indictment against Trump was politically motivated. Another 12 percent said they’re concerned about both.

  27. C@t

    Sheep and emus. The latter likely to do anything, including turning back to recross the road.
    In the desert camels like to travel along the tracks. Sometimes takes a nudge with the bullbar to shift them out of way.
    Cattle will sometimes stand their ground.
    Goats can be nibbling a metre off the road and they often won’t even look up as you pass. Smart animals.

  28. Just putting it out there that the guru of the Left, Noam Chomskey is 94yo, John Pilger is 83yo and eminense grise of the Australian Right, Phillip Ruddock, is 80yo, and they are all still active contributors to public life.

  29. Griff 9:55am

    “ Anchoring is an interesting cognitive bias. Fun to experiment with as well.

    I wonder why The Greens didn’t use an anchor of greater precision e.g. $1017 v $1000? Increased precision provides a stronger anchor resulting in less adjustment.”
    ———————————

    Thanks for that, I was unfamiliar with the term Anchoring. I learn something new every day.

  30. [‘Cassandra GOLDIE

    NSW

    For distinguished service to social justice through leadership and advocacy to promote the rights of people marginalised and disadvantaged in the community.’]

    A deserving recipient of the AO.

  31. [‘Police sources say the driver of the bus was not intoxicated and did not blow over the legal blood alcohol limit when tested following the fatal crash.

    However, a source – who was not permitted to speak publicly – said police believe the man was driving erratically before the crash.

    In a media conference a short time ago, Acting Assistant Commissioner Tracy Chapman said the 58-year-old man had been arrested.

    “[He] was taken to hospital for mandatory testing, and he is now at Cessnock Police Station and currently under arrest,” Chapman said.

    “There’s sufficient information for us to establish that there will be charges, but I won’t go into detail about those at this time.”

    It is believed the man will be charged later on Monday.

    Crash investigators and specialist forensic police remained at the crash scene on Monday morning.’] – SMH

  32. Wallal and Warrego viruses are known to cause blindness in kangaroos; poisonous plants may also be a factor (e.g. in Lumholtz Tree Kangaroos.)

    The Virus that Causes Kangaroo Blindness

    Massive outbreaks of blindness in Australian kangaroos occurred in 1994 through to 1996. This slide shows eye tissue from a Western Australian kangaroo. A fluorescent stain highlights the Wallal virus, in yellow/green, which was shown to be the cause of the disease.

    Image: Dr Peter Hooper, Australian Animal Health Laboratory (AAHL)

    Photographer : Dr. Peter Hooper

  33. Joe Biden’s age is neither here nor there. Talk of his mental decline appears to be being put about by his political opponents. He gives every impression of being fit and on top of his game. In any case he’d have to undergo a very severe mental and moral decline indeed before he could be compared to Donald Trump and his enablers.

  34. Cat
    Any big kangaroo in your neck of the woods will be an Eastern Grey. Red kangaroos are found in inland Australia generally in areas that get about 450mm or less of rain annually.

  35. My point is simply if not for Trump , someone other than Biden would be the Democrat nominee .

    Of course the usual suspects argue the partisan case that Biden is fine etc etc. But there will only be one 82-86 year old with the power to end the world in one afternoon – Joe Biden.

    Personally I want a normal stable US President who can successfully manage international politics without unintentionally causing a war. That would be someone other than Trump or Biden.

  36. I note the Russians have continued their habit of destroying Ukrainian dams. A secondary and much smaller dam on this occasion in an attempt to make the counteroffensive more difficult. It’s not considered a highly significant military issue but it is a larger civil issue.

  37. “ New York City | Billionaire philanthropist and investor George Soros, 92, is handing control of his Open Society Foundations to his son Alex, who was named chair in December.”
    “I’m more political” than the elder Soros, Alex Soros, 37, told the newspaper. He added that he was concerned about Donald Trump’s potential White House run. “As much as I would love to get money out of politics, as long as the other side is doing it, we will have to do it, too.”

    https://www.afr.com/wealth/people/george-soros-hands-control-of-37b-empire-to-his-more-political-son-20230612-p5dfs7

  38. Lars Von Trier @ Monday, June 12, 2023 at 11:48 am:
    ===========

    Biden hasn’t caused any wars, intentionally or otherwise. Certainly not Putin’s invasion of Ukraine – that was caused solely by Putin.

  39. Mavis @ #991 Monday, June 12th, 2023 – 11:24 am

    “There’s sufficient information for us to establish that there will be charges, but I won’t go into detail about those at this time.”

    Crash investigators and specialist forensic police remained at the crash scene on Monday morning.’] – SMH

    From examining Google maps, and the aerial picture in the Guardian, and knowing the bus came from Wandin Estate in Lovedale, and was going to Singleton, I surmise that the driver missed the first exit from the roundabout (onto the northbound entry to the expressway) immediately after he entered the roundabout from Wine Country Drive, and went around the roundabout for a full circle, perhaps playing silly buggers and going quite fast. Pissed passengers may have exaggerated their being flung to the outside, leading to him missing his turnoff once again, and the bus falling over, just after his correct exit. If the accident had happened as he came into the roundabout, the bus would have rolled the other direction, to the right, rather than the left, as it did.

  40. Online threats and plans for expected gatherings of far-right extremists are being monitored as federal and Florida security forces went on alert Sunday, the Washington Post reported. Growing online chatter mentioning violence, coupled with statements from former President Donald Trump and his supporters, have left authorities readying for protests – or worse.
    Trump is due in Miami Tuesday to be arraigned on 37 federal counts involving his retention of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate. Among the chatter being monitored is online conversations regarding a pro-Trump rally being planned outside the Miami federal courthouse that’s suspected of being organized by the right-wing extremist group the Proud Boys, the Washington Post reported.

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