Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)

Major party starters in place for Fadden, a date set for Rockingham, and nine candidates emerge for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte.

News to report on the three by-elections presently in view – one federal and two state, two with dates confirmed and one to be announced:

• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Fadden by-election on July 15 will be long-serving Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, who won a final round vote of 153 preselectors over Dinesh Palipana, with Fran Ward, Owen Caterer and Craig Hobart falling by the wayside in earlier rounds. Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports a meeting of Labor’s administrative committee last Friday unanimously endorsed Letitia Del Fabbro, a nurse educator who was also the candidate at the May 2022 election.

• Nine candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte, expected to be held in about a fortnight, controversial former Kew MP Tim Smith not being among them. As reported by Rachel Baxendale in The Australian, they are John Roskam, former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs; Sarah Overton, KPMG director; Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, who ran in Box Hill at the November state election; Jason McClintock, a tech business founder who ran in Eltham (and who donated heavily to the party’s state election campaign); David Farrelly, who ran in Pakenham; Jemma Townson, “energy industry communications director and former Matthew Guy and Katie Allen staffer”; Antonietta di Cosmo, 22-year-old “Ryan Smith staffer, champion rower and law student”; Allison Troth, “cancer campaigner and former John Howard staffer”; and Andrew Conlon, “Manningham councillor and maths teacher”. The report says factional conservatives are likely to back Roskam or Werner, while “an opposing factional grouping that coalesces around powerbrokers Frank Greenstein and Holly Byrne” might support Overton, McClintock or Townson.

• The Rockingham by-election to replace Mark McGowan has been set for July 29. The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate will likely be Magenta Marshall, who has won backing from the Right, despite last week saying she was “not sure it’s my time”. Marshall is in her late twenties and works in a “specialised campaigning role” in party headquarters, having previously been an electorate officer to Balcatta MP David Michael.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 comments on “Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)”

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  1. As Australia dips into a retail recession, retailers are ramping up labour and sales productivity initiatives to offset rising costs, explains Sue Mitchell who explains some of their initiatives.

    Paywalled so I havent read the productivity measures mentioned. A cynic would suggest the main ‘productivity measure’ retailers are using will be to jack up prices by 50%+ then put them on “20% OFF SALE” with big flashing yellow signs pointing to the ripoff (yes, looking at you Colesworth).


  2. Rainmansays:
    Friday, June 9, 2023 at 7:26 am
    Am I the only one finding the photo of Zelenskyy shaking the hand of Saudi Arabia’s Prince Badr bin Sultan’s hand jarring considering the Yemen civil war and the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Saudi Arabia is using Yemen to fight a proxy war with Iran. According to the UN estimates, 150,000 people have been killed in Yemen and 227,000 people have died as a result of famine. Is that genocide?

    Saudi Arabia are supposed to be the good guys as long as they are fighting enemies like Iran and are in good books of USA. Didn’t Biden visit Saudi Arabia last year for matters regarding Saudi oil?
    And Zelenskyy will shake hands as required for the sake of Ukraine.


  3. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Friday, June 9, 2023 at 7:43 am
    The eurozone economy fell into recession at the start of the year after a downturn hit big economies such as Germany. Growth in the 20-country bloc contracted by 0.1 per cent in the first three months of this year, a downward revision from an initial estimate of 0.1 per cent growth, according to official figures from Eurostat. The decline marks the second consecutive quarter of contracting growth, meeting the definition of a technical recession that economists say is likely to be mild given the continued strength of the labour market. Eurostat said that growth in the single currency area had been dragged down by household spending, which fell by 0.6 per cent in the first quarter as households battled with high inflation and rising energy

    Look at the popularity of various leaders in Eurozone. Other than Meloni and Alain Berset (Swiss), the popularity of all other leaders is in negative double digits especially that of Germany and France. Scholz and Macron popularity are in -30 &-40 respectively.

    https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/global-leader-approval

    Albanese moves into 4th position from 3rd.
    Lula is in 4th and Meloni in 5th.
    Only leaders upto 5th position are in positive net rating

  4. Breathtaking hypocrisy from Anne Ruston this morning, saying she is disappointed that the Labor government is ‘doing nothing’ about the crisis in Aged Care. This is after presiding over a system for 10 years which the Royal Commission chose to use the title ‘Neglect’ for its report.

    Hamish McDonald either not briefed properly, or just gobsmacked, fails to challenge her.

  5. Cronus @ #16 Friday, June 9th, 2023 – 7:25 am

    Thanks BK
    Two competing stories and headlines.

    “The share of tax paid by Australia’s highest earners is at its highest level in at least a decade, with new data showing the top 1 per cent contributed nearly a fifth of personal income tax revenue in 2020-21.”

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/top-earners-shoulder-more-of-the-tax-burden-20230608-p5df2g

    Does the AFR also compare the proportion of tax contributed by the top 1% with the proportion of all income earned by the same group?

  6. Thanks for the roundup BK. I refuse to read Murdoch rags so I won’t bother commenting on today’s “news” from them.

    On this – I hope the FEderal governmetn is not seriously considering not punishing PwC??
    “Blacklisting PwC won’t stop outsourcing, writes Richard Mulligan who says there are three reasons it has become embedded in the Australian public service.”
    https://theconversation.com/blacklisting-pwc-wont-stop-outsourcing-here-are-3-reasons-it-has-become-embedded-in-the-australian-public-service-206772

    This kind of argument is a fig-leaf for inaction. We don’t think punishing drink driving stops drink driving, but we still punish it. Enforcement certianly reduces drink driving.

    If the big four accountants think they can get away with behaving like PwC and not being punished, they will all behave the same way, if they aren’t already.

    The PwC scandal is actually a great opportunity for government to re-balance workload between consultants and the public service.

  7. Trump says on Truth Social that DOJ has told him he is indicted in docs case

    On Thursday, former President Donald Trumpannounced on his Truth Social platform that the Justice Department has informed his attorneys that he has been indicted in the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case.

    “I have been summoned to appear at the Federal Courthouse in Miami on Tuesday, at 3 PM,” Trump continued. “I never thought it possible that such a thing could happen to a former President of the United States, who received far more votes than any sitting President in the History of our Country, and is currently leading, by far, all Candidates, both Democrat and Republican, in Polls of the 2024 Presidential Election. I AM AN INNOCENT MAN!”

  8. It is always tempting to put off dealing with long term problems, especially if you did not cause them. So with submarines and AUKUS. This article highlights that Virginia Class “Block V” subs are now falling another 2 years behind schedule. The report says the US navy thinks it is about 25% short on the construction workforce to build them. No amount of new infrastructure, whether paid for by Australia or anyone else, will solve this if they don’t have enough workers.
    https://breakingdefense.com/2023/06/block-v-virginia-class-attack-subs-delayed-2-years-due-to-staffing-problems-gao/?_hsmi=261717553&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8gUn5QJXkiBeW6EYww9LVwREa7Q0d9tKZL8mP48_3Bhd6AJpNobLpd8syhxvg2Ew21PBMMZjsgyP3krQlygbvpL68y0w

    At best, Marles should be quietly talking to allies about a plan B for AUKUS.

  9. Donald Trump indicted on seven counts in classified documents probe: report

    Former President Donald Trump has been indicted on seven charges relating to mishandling classified government documents and obstructing justice, according to CNN. Specific charges have not been revealed as of press time, although it has been confirmed that Trump will be traveling to Miami, Florida to respond to the charges, suggesting that will be the venue of the case.

  10. Labor choosing a 20 something career staffer for almost the safest seat in the country is disappointing, even if she lives locally. Should be a rising star and future minister.

  11. Speaking of references to NACC, one thing the Commissioner can do is an ‘own motion’, that is, start an investigation without a reference.

    The body of work pointing to the recently departed Stuart Robert, Brother Stewie to his Pentecostal pals like ScoMo, surely has risen to the top of the NACC’s consideration. But there’s more….

    Brother Stewie got an ‘interview’ with Accenture whilst negotiations were on foot – just one of the many ANAO criticisms of this troubled IT replacement project. Previous iterations had to be abandoned because ScoMo’s mate had the inside running.

    2.80 The ANAO’s analysis of departmental records indicates that the Minister for Employment, Workforce, Skills, Small and Family Business met with staff from Accenture on 13 July 2021, before contract negotiations with the first preferred tenderer commenced.

    The request for a meeting followed an email sent on 6 July 2021, from the procurement delegate to the Chiefs of Staff to the Minister for Home Affairs and the Minister for Immigration, and staff of the Minister for Employment, Workforce, Skills, Small and Family Business that advised Accenture had been selected as the preferred tenderer. Departmental officials from Home Affairs and the DTA and personnel from the department’s probity adviser were also present at the meeting.

    2.81 Departmental correspondence indicates that the ‘intent of the meeting was for [the] Minister … to engage with Accenture, not for us to update the Minister on Permissions’ and the procurement delegate ‘has asked [that the] Minister … is briefed specifically on not discussing the RFT more broadly as it remains a live RFT process.’

    2.82 In response to the ANAO’s queries, in December 2022, Home Affairs advised the ANAO that ‘the department disagrees with the ANAO statement that the meeting was contrary to the probity plan and protocols’ and indicated that the meeting of the Minister, Accenture and the procurement delegate was an ‘interview’, as allowed for under the RFT.

    Home Affairs further advised in December 2022 that:

    the meeting was not recorded in the probity register. This was an administrative oversight. The Department did maintain a record of the meeting. The Department notes that this was a hand-written record, which has been transcribed. Although probity advice was not explicitly sought regarding whether the meeting should occur at that point in the procurement, a brief was prepared for the Secretary to attend the meeting with then Minister Robert, outlining matters of probity that should apply to discussions. This was cleared by the procurement‘s Probity Advisor, Maddocks. Further, a representative from the procurement’s Probity Advisor, Maddocks, was in attendance at the meeting to assist in any matters of probity that might arise. The meeting was, therefore, conducted with the full oversight of the Probity Advisor.

    See p46

    https://www.anao.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-06/Auditor-General_Report_2022-23_34.pdf


  12. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, June 9, 2023 at 9:00 am
    Soc,
    Sussan Ley back to the old deflection game, more like.

    The Coalition are a shameless bunch of people who operate on the basis that the electorate has the memory of a goldfish

    I think The LNP operate on the belief that the electorate is dumb as a doorknob.

  13. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, June 9, 2023 at 9:38 am
    Breathtaking hypocrisy from Anne Ruston this morning, saying she is disappointed that the Labor government is ‘doing nothing’ about the crisis in Aged Care. This is after presiding over a system for 10 years which the Royal Commission chose to use the title ‘Neglect’ for its report.

    Hamish McDonald either not briefed properly, or just gobsmacked, fails to challenge her.
    —————————-

    An addition to my FIL’s aged care service. He now wears a tag that monitors every time a carer or nurse approaches him. I didn’t have an opportunity to ask the nurse any details so I don’t know much about this technology except to say that it confirms who has dealt with him daily and how long the interaction has occurred for though not necessarily the quality of the contact. I will attempt to find out more.

  14. C@tmomma, BK, Cronus
    Thanks for your well wishes. My Angiogram has been successful with only one block @60%.
    No stent for the time being.

  15. Although presented as a challenge, this could be an opportunity for the government:

    “Rob Harris tells us that the price of high-end electric vehicles could be dramatically reduced for Australian drivers as a result of trade negotiations with the European Union as the federal government mulls slashing the controversial luxury car tax or potentially scrapping it entirely for low-emissions vehicles.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ev-prices-likely-to-be-slashed-in-australia-as-part-of-eu-trade-talks-20230608-p5dez4.html

    Labor would like to do a trade deal with the EU, and access to the car market is a good bargaining chip. The vehicle emissions strategy is also important. If Labor adopts EU type regulations, it would benefit access to Australia for EU made EVs (e.g. Peugot, Renault, VW, Fiat). That could be traded off for better Australian farm product access.

  16. Just on how the SmearStralian and Ch7 got Brittany Higgins texts – she handed over her phone to the AFP.

  17. Trump is the first former president in U.S. history to face federal charges.

    The Justice Department took the legally and politically momentous step of lodging federal criminal charges against former President Donald J. Trump, multiple people familiar with the matter said on Thursday, following a lengthy investigation of his handling of classified documents that he took with him upon leaving office and then obstructing the government’s efforts to reclaim them.

    The indictment, filed in Federal District Court in Miami, is the first time in American history a former president has faced federal charges. It puts the nation in an extraordinary position, given Mr. Trump’s status not only as a onetime chief executive but also as the front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination to face President Biden, whose administration will now be seeking to convict his potential rival.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/08/us/trump-indictment-documents

  18. So our own Jonathan Swan is probably right, that this will boost Dotard’s polling…

    June 8, 2023, 7:58 p.m. ET7 minutes ago
    7 minutes ago
    Jonathan Swan

    Trump’s team has been anticipating this for weeks. They will follow the same playbook they used when he was indicted in New York: Portray the indictment as corrupt and partisan, demand total fealty from Republicans and switch on their fund-raising machine.

    Jonathan Swan
    June 8, 2023, 7:56 p.m. ET9 minutes ago
    9 minutes ago
    Jonathan Swan

    A casual observer might imagine Trump’s rivals in the Republican presidential primary are thrilled that he’s being indicted. Not so. The last time he was indicted, in New York, Republican voters rallied around him, and his rivals were forced to defend him. Now, they are facing the prospect of Trump completely shutting them off from media attention.

    Maggie Haberman
    June 8, 2023, 7:54 p.m. ET11 minutes ago
    11 minutes ago
    Maggie Haberman

    This is Trump’s second indictment this year, and it may not be his last. He was indicted in Manhattan several weeks ago in relation to payments to a porn star, and he is facing another Justice Department investigation and one in Georgia, both in connection with his efforts to remain in power after losing the 2020 election.

  19. The media is complicit in boosting Trump.

    Despite how the media continues to report Trump and his popularity.

    People will be like rats on a sinking ship. Eventually it will be Trump who?

  20. Ven
    Jeff Kennett did not serve in Vietnam. He was posted to Malaysia. I have a friend who was in the same class as him when they did their officer training.

  21. From the Guardian:

    “Sussan Ley has weighed in, saying it is “morally bankrupt” if any politician or journalist sought to politically profit from a rape allegation. She told the Morning Show:

    These are serious and concerning issues. If any politician or journalist sought to politically profit from a rape allegation then that is just morally bankrupt.”

    ——————————

    Susan Ley passes judgement on herself.

  22. Q: I think it’s time for a Royal Commission into Lehrmann/Higginsgate

    Really? Spend 10-20-30 million dollars to line lawyers pockets? Drag Higgins through more mud? Just to get some recommendations everyone can ignore.

  23. sprocket_ @ #69 Friday, June 9th, 2023 – 10:04 am

    Trump is the first former president in U.S. history to face federal charges.

    The Justice Department took the legally and politically momentous step of lodging federal criminal charges against former President Donald J. Trump, multiple people familiar with the matter said on Thursday, following a lengthy investigation of his handling of classified documents that he took with him upon leaving office and then obstructing the government’s efforts to reclaim them.

    The indictment, filed in Federal District Court in Miami, is the first time in American history a former president has faced federal charges. It puts the nation in an extraordinary position, given Mr. Trump’s status not only as a onetime chief executive but also as the front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination to face President Biden, whose administration will now be seeking to convict his potential rival.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/08/us/trump-indictment-documents

    Everyone can celebrate extra hard tonight!

  24. Cronus 10:13

    “A big opportunity for the government, I hope they grasp it with both hands.”

    Yes. I should have mentioned that all the current Australian EV market suppliers from China, Korea and Japan already make EV models for the EU market. So nobody is left out if we adopt the EU EV regs and emission regs. Manufacturers should be happy, since they would no longer have to make a special “Australian spec” model of each car. That alone should bring prices down.

  25. By blowing up the Kakhova Dam on Ukraine’s Dnipro River, Russia has sabotaged a very significant slice of the world’s food supply going forward:

    “The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam has led to fears that a depleted reservoir will leave three critical regions in Ukraine’s bread basket without a key water supply.

    This has led to warnings about the region and wider world’s food supply, with Ukraine accounting for 40% of global trade in sunflower meal, 35% of sunflower oil, and 5% of wheat, barley and corn exports.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/maps-kakhovka-dam-collapse-threatens-ukraine-bread-basket

    Not content with crimes against Ukrainians, Moscow chooses to repay many African nations’ tacit support for its invasion by also committing a crime of malnourishment across the developing world.

    😡

  26. Lars thundered that current Indian government prosecuted and convicted the opposition leader in courts and implied that democracy is trampled in India because of that. Lars did not mention why opposition leader (BTW, he is not LOTO in the Indian parliament, I digress) was prosecuted and convicted.
    Now that Trump (ex-POTUS and leading contender in Presidential polls) is indicted and will be prosecuted in many cases, is that trampling of democracy? Ofcoarse not. We all know who Trump is.
    But the argument that anything that happens in India is trampling of democracy and crushing of human rights but whatever happening in US or UK upholding democracy and human rights is rank hypocrisy.

    Let us remember one thing. Lars celebrated PMship of Scott Morrison. Enough said.

  27. “Prominent Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg has said that Russia has committed ecocide in southern Ukraine and must be punished for it.

    Greta Thunberg: “This ecocide as a continuation of Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine is yet another atrocity which leaves the world lost for words. Our eyes are once again on Russia who must be held accountable for their crimes.”

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/8/7406020/

    Watch the RWNJ turds across the world go crazy at her for this.

  28. Ven @ Friday, June 9, 2023 at 10:24 am:
    =============================

    Ven, you may be glad to know that the company I work for decided some time ago to make a concerted effort to switch our sourcing of products as much as possible from China to India. We are not the lone ranger in doing this, either.

  29. Enough Already

    “Watch the RWNJ turds across the world go crazy at her for this.”

    She’s used to it by now.

  30. I guess it will be known soon enough if Mark Meadows is indicted. If not. It would mean he took an immunity deal in exchange

    ————-
    NYT: The seven counts against Trump include conspiracy to obstruct and willful retention of documents, according to two sources.

  31. I missed this yesterday, and it is somewhat contrary to the post I listed earlier about delays in the USN Virginia class sub program.

    Jackie Lambie extracted some further details from Adm Mead at Senate Estimates about the US Virginia. Class SSNs Australia will get out of AUKUS.
    “Two Virginias would be transferred to us [the Royal Australian Navy] and then we buy one off the production line,”

    “But we are looking at those submarines having over 20 years of service life.”

    “Vice Admiral Mead, responded, “So we’re probably looking at Virginia Blocks III or IV.””
    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/australia-to-get-one-new-build-virginia-class-submarine-two-from-u-s-navy

    Virginias with 20 years service life left is hardly temporary. The UK Astute SSNs only have a reactor life of 25 years from new. Block III or IV is pretty much the USN’s top of the line anti-ship SSN.

  32. Former President Donald Trump has been indicted on seven charges relating to mishandling classified government documents and obstructing justice, according to CNN. Specific charges have not been revealed as of press time, although it has been confirmed that Trump will be traveling to Miami, Florida to respond to the charges, suggesting that will be the venue of the case. It makes him the first sitting or former president ever to face a federal indictment.

    The charges came after Trump’s legal team met with Department of Justice officials on Monday, including Special Counsel Jack Smith who has been leading two separate investigations into Trump since November last year. They involve Trump’s handling of classified documents and attempting to reverse the election result of 2020. Monday’s meeting had been considered by many insiders to be the last step before an indictment decision. The former president responded to the news on his Truth Social platform.

    “I have been summoned to appear at the Federal Courthouse in Miami on Tuesday, at 3 PM,” Trump wrote. “I never thought it possible that such a thing could happen to a former President of the United States, who received far more votes than any sitting President in the History of our Country, and is currently leading, by far, all Candidates, both Democrat and Republican, in Polls of the 2024 Presidential Election. I AM AN INNOCENT MAN!” “This is indeed a DARK DAY for the United States of America,” Trump added in another post. “We are a Country in serious and rapid Decline, but together we will Make America Great Again!”

  33. In case it’s not been posted already, this just in from “The Mandarin Juice”.

    Interesting news from Queensland this morning, with 40,000 public sector workers getting an 11% pay increase over three years.

  34. I am guessing the Canadian wildfires will cause timber prices to rise. The RBA will be looking to punish somebody for that. Lets see – will they hurt people building massively over sized houses or uneccesary extensions onto said houses? Nah – lets hit people who cant afford the basics. In fact, lets put the economy into recession and see if we can take away their jobs too.

  35. Shogun @ #94 Friday, June 9th, 2023 – 10:25 am

    Some good news for Democrats:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/supreme-court-voting-rights-redistricting-implications/

    Gerrymandering is still alive and well in the US. But now perhaps a bit less favourable to Republicans.

    There was some reporting that the courts blocking Democrat maps in democrat friendly states is what lost them the House in the midterms – if fair redistricting was evenly enforced across all states.

  36. who received far more votes than any sitting President in the History of our Country

    Oh for fuck’s sake. Hillary got more votes the first time. Biden got more the second time.

    All Trump does is lie. He shouldn’t get bail pending trial. But he will.

  37. Is Peter Dutton done ?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/terrified-higgins-says-peter-dutton-said-he-knew-about-complaint-before-police-interview-20221007-p5bnx4.html

    Brittany Higgins has denied removing text messages and images from her phone to conceal them from police, saying she was terrified after Peter Dutton, then home affairs minister, said he had the initial details of her complaint before she’d recorded a statement to police.
    The former Liberal staffer broke down in tears several times during a tense cross-examination by her accused rapist Bruce Lehrmann’s barrister, Steven Whybrow, who she accused of being “deeply insulting” towards her when he suggested she had told others she had doctors’ appointments to “bolster” her story.

  38. I’m not really sure these indictments will stop Trump running for president, and if he wins stop him from sitting.

    Yes, yes, I know you cant be president of the USA if convicted of a federal crime, but does anyone really think if he is convicted that the appeals will be done by Nov 2024? With money this kind of thing can stay in the courts for years, and there’s a very good chance the Supreme Court will pay the piper and take it up as a final appeal outlet.

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