Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)

Major party starters in place for Fadden, a date set for Rockingham, and nine candidates emerge for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte.

News to report on the three by-elections presently in view – one federal and two state, two with dates confirmed and one to be announced:

• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Fadden by-election on July 15 will be long-serving Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, who won a final round vote of 153 preselectors over Dinesh Palipana, with Fran Ward, Owen Caterer and Craig Hobart falling by the wayside in earlier rounds. Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports a meeting of Labor’s administrative committee last Friday unanimously endorsed Letitia Del Fabbro, a nurse educator who was also the candidate at the May 2022 election.

• Nine candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte, expected to be held in about a fortnight, controversial former Kew MP Tim Smith not being among them. As reported by Rachel Baxendale in The Australian, they are John Roskam, former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs; Sarah Overton, KPMG director; Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, who ran in Box Hill at the November state election; Jason McClintock, a tech business founder who ran in Eltham (and who donated heavily to the party’s state election campaign); David Farrelly, who ran in Pakenham; Jemma Townson, “energy industry communications director and former Matthew Guy and Katie Allen staffer”; Antonietta di Cosmo, 22-year-old “Ryan Smith staffer, champion rower and law student”; Allison Troth, “cancer campaigner and former John Howard staffer”; and Andrew Conlon, “Manningham councillor and maths teacher”. The report says factional conservatives are likely to back Roskam or Werner, while “an opposing factional grouping that coalesces around powerbrokers Frank Greenstein and Holly Byrne” might support Overton, McClintock or Townson.

• The Rockingham by-election to replace Mark McGowan has been set for July 29. The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate will likely be Magenta Marshall, who has won backing from the Right, despite last week saying she was “not sure it’s my time”. Marshall is in her late twenties and works in a “specialised campaigning role” in party headquarters, having previously been an electorate officer to Balcatta MP David Michael.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 thoughts on “Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)”

Comments Page 18 of 26
1 17 18 19 26
  1. Michael Popok of YouTube channel Meidas Touch Network is an accomplished trial attorney with 30 years experience. He analyses the Aileen Cannon question. His opinion is that the Miami court clerk ticked Cannon’s name be be the judge *initially* given her previous involvement in the case. He says that this doesn’t mean that she will be the judge that ends up presiding over this jury trial. Popok says he believes that given Cannon’s previous humiliating smack down in this matter by the 11th circuit, she will either voluntarily recuse herself, or if she doesn’t, the DOJ and Jack Smith will file a motion to recuse and disqualify her. Interesting stuff.

    https://youtu.be/Yn0L67s9iWg

  2. “ You really should have gone military not legal Andy imo.”

    Nah. I would have ended up cluttering the board talking about legal issues and never even mentioning defence.

  3. Road not travelled – you talk about it a lot more than the law. Suggests that where ur real interests lie.

  4. Socrates:

    “ The thing that bothers me the more I think about it is that even if SSN AUKUS delivers on time, we end up having to maintain both 3+ Virginia Blk IVs and 5+ SSN AUKUS for 30 years! The maintenance workload will be huge. Two sets of different equipment for everything.”

    ___

    I don’t think that is ‘the plan’, but of course, in true Fort Fumble style NOTHING in detail has been laid out for us. Only talking points. This really is disgraceful conduct, and even given Albo the benefit of the doubt, simply not good enough.

    I suspect that ‘the plan’ is to see the Virginia’s ‘in and then out’ of service in a 22 year period per boat. I am guessing (basised on the scant information out there) that ‘the plan’ is only to buy 3 Virginia’s (2033, 2036 and 2039) with the SSN_AUKUS class coming into service on a 3 year drum beat from 2043 onwards. If so, the Virginia’s should leave service between 2055 and 2061. Or thereabouts. So perhaps only a 12 or so year overlap & not 30 years.

    But I seriously doubt things will go to plan, and we may end up buying new American SSNs in the 2040s, which would be the death knell for the SSN-AUKUS class. … Unless America takes the program over from the Brits. I think that is actually ‘on the board’ of possibilities because the Virginia clas is evolving so much in size and incorporating different missions that it is unlikely to be suitable as a genuine attack class after the Block Vs. Yet the need for genuine hunter-killer SSNs in the 2040s and onwards may still be highly relevant. So america itself may end up buying into a ‘smaller than Virginia Block VI’ in size class for its own needs. Which may end up saving the AUKUS program.

  5. If i could have been anything, I’d either have been a professional ironman triathlete or an opera singer. Talent … or a lack thereof … put paid to both, lols.

  6. Barry Humphries awarded a posthumous AC for, inter alia, “eminent service … to the promotion of Australian culture”.

    I hear the immortal words of Sir Les Patterson ringing down the years:

    “People say we don’t have culture in Australia, ladies and gentlemen, but we do. We’ve got culture up to our arseholes!”

  7. UK by-elections:

    “Uxbridge and South Ruislip
    Outgoing MP: Boris Johnson
    Majority: 7,210”

    “… according to analysis in the New Statesman by the co-founder of the polling group Britain Elects, the seat is winnable for Labour … The polling expert Luke Tryl from More in Common has also said Labour should be able to win in Uxbridge, unless there is something “seriously off” with the polling.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/11/boris-johnson-nadine-dorries-and-nigel-adams-who-might-win-their-seats

  8. Further to my post above: since the Meidas Touch video was published, the New York Times has reported that the clerk at the Miami court has confirmed that Aileen Cannon was actually randomly assigned to oversee the case. There was a one in seven chance in her being selected. The number was reduced to seven due to judges not being available or already having allocated workload.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/10/us/politics/judge-aileen-cannon-trump-documents.html

  9. “ Nicola Sturgeon has been questioned “as a suspect” by detectives investigating allegations of financial misconduct by the Scottish National party.

    The former first minister and SNP leader was arrested by police on Sunday morning but later released without charge, pending further inquiries, after voluntarily going to a police station.

    In a statement on Sunday evening, Sturgeon said that her arrest was “both a shock and deeply distressing”. She added that: “I know beyond doubt that I am in fact innocent of any wrongdoing.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/11/nicola-sturgeon-released-without-charge-pending-further-investigation

  10. ‘Tim Loughton, a Tory MP and former minister, said Johnson should “shut up and go away” and branded his allies a “mob”. A government source added: “The witch-hunt narrative is held by a sad rump of Boris worshippers, whose numbers are small.”’

    A ‘sad rump of Boris worshippers’, you say?

    ‘Jacob Rees-Mogg … predicted that “at some indeterminate date in the future when Rishi’s hair has gone grey and he decides to retire,” Johnson could come back “on his charger to save the nation”.’

    Sad, indeed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/11/senior-tories-tell-boris-johnson-and-allies-to-shut-up-and-go-away

  11. Jon Cooper @joncoopertweets

    It was so nice of Trump to leave a copying machine in the room where he stored secret documents to make things easier for foreign spies.

  12. Wedding return: Up to 10 people have died and more than 10 others injured in a bus crash in the Hunter Valley overnight. Police were called to Wine Country Drive near Greta just after 11.30pm, after reports a coach had rolled. Police said initial inquiries indicated 10 people had died, while 11 were transported to hospital via helicopter and road, and 18 passengers were uninjured. Emergency services were on the scene on Monday morning and police are investigating the circumstances of the crash.

  13. Richmond premiership star Bachar Houli has been airlifted back to Melbourne after being injured in a serious car crash near Canberra.
    Houli is believed to have broken his pelvis and sustained several other fractures after a camping trip went wrong.

  14. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    The RBA governor’s removal, assuming it comes, will be huge news. But the change will be largely aesthetic, with political implications both good and bad for the government, writes Sean Kelly who points to a number of home truths put on the table by Ross Garnaut. Worth reading.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/philip-lowe-is-cactus-but-truth-be-told-his-fate-is-a-sideshow-20230607-p5deuu.html
    Police say as many as 10 people have died after a coach carrying wedding guests rolled off the road in the Hunter Valley late on Sunday night. Emergency services were working overnight at the scene of the fatal crash on Wine Country Drive near the Hunter Expressway off ramp at Greta.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/multiple-people-killed-in-hunter-valley-bus-tragedy-20230612-p5dfqz.html
    Paul Sakkal and Lisa Visentin report that leading Voice architect Noel Pearson is pushing for a fundamental shift in how the Voice to parliament referendum is being presented, warning the Yes movement lacks a clear message and has been snookered by deceptive arguments of its opponents.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/yes-campaign-snookered-says-noel-pearson-in-call-for-major-campaign-shift-20230611-p5dfnc.html
    The constructive dialogue between Tony Burke and resource sector employers shapes as an important advance for the Albanese government and its bid to implement a second wave of workplace relations changes. The Australian’s Ewin Hannan writes that, while business groups have vowed to spend millions of dollars opposing Labor’s same job, same pay laws, resource and energy employers have, unusually, chosen a different course, engaging in practical, direct talks with the government to try to limit inadvertent consequences on companies.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/breakthrough-on-labour-hire-laws/news-story/243b24cb1880b429842013b2e97ee4f8?amp
    John Kehoe sets out to examine the low productivity malaise that has been a slow burn for Australia for a long time.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/how-to-stop-the-productivity-timebomb-making-us-poorer-20230607-p5dele
    A former chair of the Tax Practitioners Board, who worked at a firm that became PwC, has left the role and thus raising serious questions, reports Anthony Klan.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/vanished-tax-board-boss-was-executive-at-pre-pwc-firm,17601
    The judgement on Ben Roberts-Smith’s defamation case delivered a heavily damning summary of conduct. That would have come as little surprise to many; rumour abounded for a decade or more, writes Richard Llewellyn who says that not only has Roberts-Smith been severely impacted. The ordure is spread widely but not thinly. It will stick perniciously to individuals (Roberts-Smith being just one), organisations (the SAS specifically and the Australian military more generally), institutions (the Australian War Memorial being front and centre) and even the Great Australian Trope: the ANZAC legend/myth.
    https://johnmenadue.com/shattered-idol-synchronised-drowning/
    Home building insurance was identified as a key issue in the construction crisis by an Andrews government working group five months before the collapse of Porter Davis left customers uninsured and out of pocket. Rachel Eddie tells us that the group was brought together last year to find short-term ways to resolve spiralling costs for home builders and buyers that were crippling the sector.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/building-insurance-flagged-for-improvement-five-months-before-porter-davis-collapse-20230608-p5dexv.html
    David Crowe says Katy Gallagher is not the only one with questions to answer about the dirty game being played with the backstory to the sexual assault claim against former ministerial adviser Bruce Lehrmann.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/gallagher-misled-parliament-but-she-s-not-the-only-one-with-questions-to-answer-20230611-p5dfpg.html
    The federal indictment of former US president Donald Trump has unleashed a wave of calls by his supporters for violence and an uprising to defend him, disturbing observers and raising concerns of a warlike atmosphere before his court appearance in Miami tomorrow.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-supporters-unleash-violent-rhetoric-in-his-defence-20230611-p5dfo0.html
    Donald Trump’s former attorney general William Barr believes that the former president may be “toast” as he faces a sweeping indictment of 37 federal criminal charges over his alleged mishandling of classified documents. Speaking to Fox News yesterday following the release of the indictment, Barr, who served as the US attorney general under Trump from 2019 to 2020, said that he was “shocked by the degree of sensitivity at these documents and how many there were”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/11/trump-indictment-william-barr

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe


    Megan Herbert

    Leak????

    From the US





  15. ‘Gutless pig’: Trump vents fury after Bill Barr says ‘he’s toast’

    Former President Donald Trump vented fury at his former Attorney General Bill Barr Sunday after the prosecutor said the indictment against him meant “he’s toast.”

    Barr went on Fox News Sunday to talk about Trump’s indictment on 37 federal counts for retention of classified documents in his Mar-a-Lago home. He said he was “shocked by the degree of sensitivity of these documents and how many there were.”

    “Turn off FoxNews when that “Gutless Pig” is on!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social Platform.

  16. Good morning everyone!
    I have appreciated the opportunity this past week or so to take criticism on board so that I may grow in a positive direction. 🙂

    Now back to Rex watch. 😉

  17. RE: Covers
    It is hard to go past two versions of The Left Banks’ – Walk Away Renee.
    Billy Bragg or The Four Tops.
    C@t, my wife and I had the pleasure of seeing The Temptations & The Four Tops in concert at the not forgotten Sydney Entertainment Centre.
    The support act was The Commodores (with Lionel Ritchie). They were boring, mawkish Las Vegas style rubbish.
    The Tops & The Tempts blew the roof off the Ent Centre.
    They played a set together, to open their performance, then each band played solo for about an hour and then they combined to complete the show.

  18. I mean I know it’s nothing compared with the accident that happened in the Hunter today but I just got off the phone to my son who also had a car accident this morning on his way to work. 🙁

    He collided with a Wallaby. He’s okay, the car isn’t and, sadly the Wallaby is toast. He’s a good driver and so his reactions were exemplary and he didn’t react and careen off the road into a tree. Thank goodness.

  19. MaccaRB,
    When I saw Lionel Ritchie he just phoned it in. Chic, on the same bill, were a-mazing. I envy you being able to get to see the 4 Tops and the Temptations. Especially The 4 Tops, as when I was growing up a friend of mine had a big sister who worked for a record company so I had the pleasure of listening to the records by all of those bands and have loved them ever since.

  20. The Workers Paradise.
    Just read that Putin’s business oligarchs are now pushing for a six-day working week.
    Obviously, the international sanctions are having an effect upon the economy of the Tsarist Empire.
    Simple solution to a domestic labour and a military personnel shortage.
    I would imagine that the employer / employee conversation would be:
    “You’ll front up for work on saturday or on sunday you will be at the front”.

    The obvious solution to the above dilemma is for an immediate retreat from Ukraine and a return to the pre-2014 borders.


  21. Oliver Suttonsays:
    Monday, June 12, 2023 at 3:14 am
    Oh, and an AO for Maxine McKew.

    John Howard would be spinning in his grave. If he was dead …

    Maybe he is spinning like a Top now.

  22. A few people I know have received King’s Birthday honours today, and they deserve their accolades – looking at Carol Bower.

    But WTF is with all these ex-politicians getting gongs?


  23. Charlessays:
    Monday, June 12, 2023 at 5:06 am
    Further to my post above: since the Meidas Touch video was published, the New York Times has reported that the clerk at the Miami court has confirmed that Aileen Cannon was actually randomly assigned to oversee the case. There was a one in seven chance in her being selected. The number was reduced to seven due to judges not being available or already having allocated workload.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/10/us/politics/judge-aileen-cannon-trump-documents.html

    There are 2 words in above paragraph.
    “random assigned” and “selected “. Is there a difference between them in above context? If so what?

  24. C@t:

    I know I don’t need to tell you this, but keep an eye on your son. Even though he doesn’t have any physical injuries, the crash could hit him later today or tomorrow.

    That happened to me when I hit something (possibly a kangaroo) on a highway late at night. I was fine, the car was fine, state of the object I hit unknown. But the next day I had the shakes so bad I couldn’t even hold a cup of coffee and felt so anxious about everything I was practically sick!

  25. I’m wondering if Trump’s mental condition might collapse as the indictments continue to land on him.
    It won’t be a pretty sight if this does happen. Already he’s showing signs.

  26. Former President Donald Trump on Sunday confirmed the existence of audio recordings that could be used as evidence against him in a case about the mishandling of classified documents.

    During an interview on Sunday with host Roger Stone, Trump responded to reports indicating he admitted he did not declassify some documents before leaving office with them. Those recordings are reportedly in the hands of special counsel Jack Smith.

    “By the way, the tapes that you read about, those tapes are my tapes,” Trump growled. “I gave them very willingly, the tapes.” Trump complained that President Joe Biden “probably doesn’t have tapes” incriminating himself.

  27. My nephew showed me dashcam footage of the time he hit a kangaroo when driving on a country road at night in the ACT. It just leapt out of the bushland by the side of the road straight into his path. There was nothing he could do. Fortunately he was OK, although the car was dented. The state of the kangaroo was unknown but probably not good.


  28. Aaron newtonsays:
    Monday, June 12, 2023 at 7:54 am
    any interesting news on kings birtthday honers

    Jenny Macklin and Maxine McKew got gongs.


  29. shellbellsays:
    Monday, June 12, 2023 at 8:10 am
    Middling politicians getting ACs is pretty insulting

    That’s what happens when some top politicians are horrible, horrible people.

  30. Former President Donald Trump has been desperately seeking new lawyers before his arraignment in Miami Tuesday – but he’s struggling to find firms willing to take him on, according to a report.
    “The problem is none of us want to work for the guy,” one federal criminal defense lawyer in the Southern District of Florida, who said he’d been contacted, told news site The Messenger.“He’s a nightmare client.”
    Another who The Messenger said had spoken to Trump’s team told the site, “I would love to do it. I think the case is weak. But my wife would divorce me and my kids wouldn’t talk to me if I defended Trump.” The report said Trump’s team has interviewed at least six law firms, and may have found one it can sign.


  31. Confessionssays:
    Monday, June 12, 2023 at 8:21 am
    C@t:

    I know I don’t need to tell you this, but keep an eye on your son. Even though he doesn’t have any physical injuries, the crash could hit him later today or tomorrow.

    That happened to me when I hit something (possibly a kangaroo) on a highway late at night. I was fine, the car was fine, state of the object I hit unknown. But the next day I had the shakes so bad I couldn’t even hold a cup of coffee and felt so anxious about everything I was practically sick!

    I think that is called “Whiplash “, whose effect is felt much later after the accident.

  32. Middling politicians getting ACs is pretty insulting
    ———————————
    In one case, you are being generous.

  33. Confessions, C@tmomma

    Adding to your words, in my early 20s (ie young & fit) I hit a large roo while driving on my own at dawn on a country road. (The roo was dead. The car was six inches shorter.) I managed to limp the car back to Cobar. I was unhurt and just angry with myself. A few hours later, out of nowhere, I threw up. I felt bad for the rest of the day.

    Take care.

  34. The Greens have backed down on the amount of money they want spent on public housing, but the rent freeze demand (which is the real sticking point) seems to be still in place —

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-12/greens-offer-deal-to-build-social-affordable-homes/102467604

    If so, it’s a typical Greens move, where they tack something reasonable on to something impossible and then accuse Labor of not being reasonable because they can’t sign up to the impossible.

    And, of course, in this case they’ll say they’ve shown they’re willing to negotiate but Labor isn’t.

Comments Page 18 of 26
1 17 18 19 26

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *