Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)

Major party starters in place for Fadden, a date set for Rockingham, and nine candidates emerge for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte.

News to report on the three by-elections presently in view – one federal and two state, two with dates confirmed and one to be announced:

• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Fadden by-election on July 15 will be long-serving Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, who won a final round vote of 153 preselectors over Dinesh Palipana, with Fran Ward, Owen Caterer and Craig Hobart falling by the wayside in earlier rounds. Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports a meeting of Labor’s administrative committee last Friday unanimously endorsed Letitia Del Fabbro, a nurse educator who was also the candidate at the May 2022 election.

• Nine candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte, expected to be held in about a fortnight, controversial former Kew MP Tim Smith not being among them. As reported by Rachel Baxendale in The Australian, they are John Roskam, former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs; Sarah Overton, KPMG director; Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, who ran in Box Hill at the November state election; Jason McClintock, a tech business founder who ran in Eltham (and who donated heavily to the party’s state election campaign); David Farrelly, who ran in Pakenham; Jemma Townson, “energy industry communications director and former Matthew Guy and Katie Allen staffer”; Antonietta di Cosmo, 22-year-old “Ryan Smith staffer, champion rower and law student”; Allison Troth, “cancer campaigner and former John Howard staffer”; and Andrew Conlon, “Manningham councillor and maths teacher”. The report says factional conservatives are likely to back Roskam or Werner, while “an opposing factional grouping that coalesces around powerbrokers Frank Greenstein and Holly Byrne” might support Overton, McClintock or Townson.

• The Rockingham by-election to replace Mark McGowan has been set for July 29. The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate will likely be Magenta Marshall, who has won backing from the Right, despite last week saying she was “not sure it’s my time”. Marshall is in her late twenties and works in a “specialised campaigning role” in party headquarters, having previously been an electorate officer to Balcatta MP David Michael.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 comments on “Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)”

Comments Page 16 of 26
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  1. Cronus says:

    Angora Fish appears to have missed the fundamental point that one side is moving forward whilst the other is reversing. This is a strong combat indicator in any battle. I sensed Russian wishcasting.
    ______________
    I saw Goody Angora Fish wishcasting with Putin!

  3. Cronus & C@tmomma, for me, Angora Fish forfeited any right to be taken seriously on this blog or anywhere else with this clanger: “If Ukraine is not inflicting at least 3 losses for every one of their own then they’ve lost.” Classic re-framing of a narrative to one with a ridiculously high (and beside the point) expectation for Ukraine’s counteroffensive operations.

  4. Enough Already says:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 6:04 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 5:59 pm:

    “Sorry – your mate bounced south out.”
    =================

    Pity. As the song by “The Mighty Mighty Bosstones” goes: “Why can’t we be friends?” I think, except for posters who actually side with the likes of the regimes in Moscow, Damascus, Tehran or Pyongyang and spread their propaganda, we should all be friends here.

    _______________

    Did you mean War? The band that is 😉

  6. Griffs @ Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 6:41 pm:

    “As the song by “The Mighty Mighty Bosstones” goes: “Why can’t we be friends?”
    _______________

    Did you mean War? The band that is ”
    ==========================

    Duh! I actually meant Smash Mouth’s cover.

  7. Enough Already – when UKR hopefully wins and the kids ask in five years Time “Daddy what did you do in the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022-2023?”

    What will you tell them ?

  8. Enough Already says:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 6:46 pm
    Griffs @ Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 6:41 pm:

    “As the song by “The Mighty Mighty Bosstones” goes: “Why can’t we be friends?”
    _______________

    Did you mean War? The band that is ”
    ==========================

    Duh! I actually meant Smash Mouth’s cover.

    _________________

    Not sure they did the song justice. But hey ho 🙂

  9. Enough Already @ #757 Sunday, June 11th, 2023 – 6:46 pm

    Griffs @ Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 6:41 pm:

    “As the song by “The Mighty Mighty Bosstones” goes: “Why can’t we be friends?”
    _______________

    Did you mean War? The band that is ”
    ==========================

    Duh! I actually meant Smash Mouth’s cover.

    Great version.

  10. Spent a couple of hours watching the disabled tenpin bowling championships currently on in Adelaide. Tenpin bowling alleys are odd places at the best of times. This dials it up to the point of making it very enjoyable. A lad from Darwin came up to me and started talking at me – then mid “chat”broke into a Carly Rae Jensen song. Then added some dance moves. The dude had a good voice. My kids were mesmerised.

    Bowling looks a stressful sport and some of these peeps were taking it very seriously indeed. Many struggled with the pressure. One chap (downs I think) bowled an impressive spare and cheers went up for him which he found quite frightening. Suffice to say the carers/support crew were performing a lot of calming back rubbing.

  11. Lars Von Trier @ Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 6:48 pm:

    “Enough Already – when UKR hopefully wins and the kids ask in five years Time “Daddy what did you do in the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022-2023?”

    What will you tell them ?”
    =============

    Won’t need to tell them anything . My eldest is as much engaged in this as I am.

  12. “A white person is in no position to negatively attack a blak person re their position on the Voice”

    Why? According to what moral grounds?

  13. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 6:31 pm
    A white person is in no position to negatively attack a blak person re their position on the Voice.

    A white person should only speak for themself.
    …………………………..

    Thanks Rex, the protocols can be hard to follow so I am most grateful for the generosity of your assistance. One thing, are positive attacks on a black, sorry blak person, okay.

  14. Team Katich @ #761 Sunday, June 11th, 2023 – 6:53 pm

    Spent a couple of hours watching the disabled tenpin bowling championships currently on in Adelaide. Tenpin bowling alleys are odd places at the best of times. This dials it up to the point of making it very enjoyable. A lad from Darwin came up to me and started talking at me – then mid “chat”broke into a Carly Rae Jensen song. Then added some dance moves. The dude had a good voice. My kids were mesmerised.

    Bowling looks a stressful sport and some of these peeps were taking it very seriously indeed. Many struggled with the pressure. One chap (downs I think) bowled an impressive spare and cheers went up for him which he found quite frightening. Suffice to say the carers/support crew were performing a lot of calming back rubbing.

    Comment of the week.

  15. Rex Douglas
    A white person is in no position to negatively attack a blak person re their position on the Voice.

    A blak person may hold any position he or she wants. I respect that position – even if I disagree with it.

    But when that blak person advocates that other people should follow his or her position – then anyone has the right to refute that advocacy.

    Lidia Thorpe certainly has the right to free speech. That is incontrovertible. But her promotion of a Voice boycott should be refuted – by anyone, irrespective of their skin colour or cultural background.

    We live in a democracy, for fuck’s sake. No person is sacrosanct. I do not care how important they think they are.

  20. Windhover
    Thanks Rex, the protocols can be hard to follow so I am most grateful for the generosity of your assistance.

    I too was confused – until Rex (ever the helpful altruist) set me straight. This is fraught territory for us non-blaks to navigate. Rex has shown us the light.

    Lidia Thorpe has achieved so much in her short Federal parliamentary career: laid down in front of a Mardi Gras float; been thrown out of a night club; sued the Greens party for racism. There is just no end to her talents! As the epicentre of the Voice referendum, we all need to know how to treat Lidia with appropriate deference and respect.

    Thank you Rex.

  21. Hi C@t @ 5:20pm

    I didn’t need to provide any sources. Firstly, I was responding to Cronus’ use of the 3:1 figure earlier in the day, it wasn’t my figure. Secondly, I’m not writing a undergraduate essay. Thirdly, even if I had provided sources the usual suspects would find a dozen reasons to discount it.

    Regardless, I do suspect that I know where Cronus got the figure from. It was referenced in a Pentagon briefing in the last day or so, which would seem as credible a source as any given the fog of war and whatnot. There was a certain amount of copium involved, it being in response to images of clusters of destroyed Leopard tanks, but given the information we have available I’ll take it at face value.

    You are correct that I have been around for a while. Since more or less the start of the blog in fact, well before William moved to Crikey, and then moved off Crikey. I like dropping by occasionally as I do tend to find references to things that I’ve missed in the media. Thank you all for that.

    Obviously I don’t post often, mostly under the issue-specific posts, which tend to be less contaminated by blind partisanship, imputed motivations and ad hominem attacks, currently best illustrated by a quick CTRL-F for “AngoraFish” over the last page or so.

    I don’t resent it or take it personally. The problem has been here since the blog started, and while C@ts will come and go there will inevitably be another. The field of posters willing to throw ignorant, partisan, uninformed abuse at the smallest assumed provocation has always been strong.

    Today was a slow day for posts, and people seemed genuinely interested, so I had a go, however I see now that the moment has come and gone and we are back to our usual programming. I shall therefore bid you all adieu and let you get on with it.

    I’ll likely be back again if I sense that there is appetite for sensible discussion at some stage, but I suggest not holding your breath.

  24. The Age 11/06
    But she said she did nothing with it and did not know the full allegations until they were aired by Network Ten’s The Project and published by news.com.au.
    _____________________
    If you believe that you will believe anything.
    She is going to have to provide a lot more details than that this week.
    Otherwise she is gonski.

  25. Positive attacks on the Voice itself are great as well.

    Calling it “not that great anyway”, “weak at best”, “mere symbolism” or saying other priorities should be progressed instead of the Voice, those are all excellent. You get to demonstrate that you support it soooooo much that you know better than everyone else how it should be implemented!

  27. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 7:13 pm
    Thanks for the explanation, Cronus.
    ———————————

    C@T
    Most welcome. When this figure is provided by planners to Generals prior to operations, it has a sobering effect on their understanding of the ramifications of their decisions.

  30. Angora Fish,
    Don’t take your fishing rod and bait and go home! Cronus explained to me what I missed earlier in the day and which you have reiterated yourself just now. With your own soupcon of ad hominem. 😉

    So now I understand. Though I think that you have to admit that the fog of war makes people rooting for Ukraine sensitive to what may seem like Russian propaganda.

  32. Reddit is effectively shutting down most third-party apps, and its users are revolting. After announcing an astronomical (and likely Twitter-inspired) increase in the cost of accessing Reddit’s API, popular apps such as Apollo, Reddit is Fun, and Sync have been effectively priced out of the market, making the official Reddit app the only app on the market — an app that has far fewer features than its third-party competitors. In response, many of the site’s moderators (all of whom are unpaid volunteers) are shutting down their popular subreddits.

    Some subreddits have chosen to shut down indefinitely, including /r/videos and /r/music. However, most subreddits have only committed to a two-day shutdown, including /r/funny, /r/pics, /r/todayilearned, /r/LifeProTips, /r/DIY, /r/futurology and /r/food. The subs who have only committed to a temporary shutdown say they’ll “use the community and buzz we’ve built between then and now as a tool for further action.”

    The moderators of many subreddits planned the largely-symbolic shutdown with the hope of gaining the attention of Reddit CEO and co-founder Steve Huffman, also known as “spez.” This planned action did get a response from Huffman in the form of an ask me anything (AMA) thread, which led to thousands of questions being asked, with Reddit staff only answering 21 questions. Many were unhappy with the responses, leading some moderators to threaten to pull down their subreddits indefinitely.

  33. I agree with Cronus and others on Ukraine – it is just too soon to know who is winning. The Ukrainians are wisely not giving anything away.

    The Russian disinformation campaign that started the day after they blew the dam was massive. The timing in itself indicated that Russian blowing of the dam was preplanned.

    As for covers, here is Hothouse Flowers with one of my favourites.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1HRcoHGmi4

  35. ”
    Enough Alreadysays:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 6:22 pm
    Ven @ Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 6:18 pm

    “According to EA, David is winning in a David -Goliath war.”
    ================

    Ven, I’m not sure how to take this comment of yours. I actually did give my view to Lars above, at 5:29pm. Your comment quoted here is not an accurate summary of that view.
    ”

    Ofcoarse I am supporting you. Don’t we want David to win David -Goliath battle?

  36. ”
    Enough Alreadysays:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 6:04 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 5:59 pm:

    “Sorry – your mate bounced south out.”
    =================

    Pity. As the song by “The Mighty Mighty Bosstones” goes: “Why can’t we be friends?” I think, except for posters who actually side with the likes of the regimes in Moscow, Damascus, Tehran or Pyongyang and spread their propaganda, we should all be friends here.
    ”

    And Riyadh!

  38. maybi cash could explain what she new about the afp raids on the awu did her media advisor realy tip off the media with out her knolidge what about her appointment of peter colliers best mate michael mischinn to admin tribunal former wa aterney generalor the white bord what did cash and renyolds know the only side reponising this is liberals

  39. Lars Von Trier @ Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 7:33 pm:
    ===========•

    Lars, you disappoint me. Back to that tired old trope again?

  40. ”
    Late Risersays:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 6:42 pm
    Speaking of missing posters, is Barney (from all over) still about?
    ”

    And Ray(UK) especially with lot UK news in the last 10 months?

  41. im glad the liberals have learnt nothing aparently defending pell was not good enough wonder whiy the prosecuter dropped chargis all he did was hurt higins buy her never getting closure and lehrmann in limbo

  42. Senate Republican leaders, including Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), are staying quiet about former President Trump’s indictment on 37 criminal charges, letting him twist in the wind and breaking with House Republican leaders who have rushed to Trump’s defense. McConnell, who is careful not to comment on Trump or even repeat his name in public, has said to his GOP colleagues that he wants his party to turn the page on the former president, whom he sees as a flawed general election candidate and a drag on Senate Republican candidates.

    The Senate GOP leader’s top deputies — Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) — have also indicated they don’t want Trump to win the party’s 2024 presidential nomination. They along with McConnell are letting Trump’s legal troubles play out without coming to the former president’s defense, in contrast to Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), who both issued statements Thursday criticizing the Justice Department before the indictment was unsealed to the public. “They want him to go away so they wouldn’t be very upset if this is the thing that finally takes him out,” said a former Senate Republican aide about the Senate Republican leaders’ silence on Trump’s indictment.

    Republican senators were more outspoken in defending Trump after liberal Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg unveiled an indictment in early April charging Trump with 34 felony counts related to business records fraud. Even Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) declined to express confidence in Bragg when asked about him in late March. Special Prosecutor Jack Smith, whom Attorney General Merrick Garland tapped in November to investigate Trump, has more credibility among Republicans. “Jack Smith is very credible,” said the former Senate GOP aide.

  44. Ven @ Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 7:54 pm:

    “ Ofcoarse I am supporting you. Don’t we want David to win David -Goliath battle?”
    ===============

    Ven, okay, thanks for that. Sometimes I do take things the wrong way.

    And yes, this is exactly how I view this conflict: imperialist Goliath trying to conquer independent-spirited David. I am just very nervous about expecting a David triumph just yet.

  45. ithink this higgins is being weaponised as renyolds six year senate term is up at the election the only way she will winn is damage higgins slade Brockman will get top spot and liberal party could fail to winn second and renyolds has been low profile so far with all her military claims she was in the reserves and spent most of her corear as a liberal party hack deputy federal director advisor to a minister elerson

  46. “The Russian disinformation campaign that started the day after they blew the dam was massive.”

    Its still massive and in high gear Soc. And much agitation over this Leopard tank thing. 🙂

    Saw the vid of the Russians claiming an Agricultural sprayer and Harvesters they missiled were Leo2’s. 🙂 much silliness. 🙁

    Saw another one where a Leo2 was hit in the ammo storage (turret bustle). Flame and smoke and unless they were unlucky enough to have the internal ammo door open the crew would have actually survived and the tank is well reparable. No flames out of hatches so think they were ok.

    And an overhead, supposedly of a number of Leo2 and Bradleys by and in a river all fwarked. Odd thing was that all the actual tanks in the shot (marked as Leo2) had had their turrets blown right off (just like the rather common end for a T72-T80 type) and the “Bradleys” looked a lot more like BMP’s. 🙁 Recycled shots from a very bad attempted river crossing nearly a year ago by Russians. But now, rebranded. 🙂

    Really got to take everything with a lot of skepticism at the moment. Interesting indicator is some of the stuff on OSINT sites as to where Russians are reporting they are shelling. That is at least theoretically where the Ukrainians are .

    Armchair types half a world away like us are going to be days behind on whats happening over there. Most i will say is that i think it could be going much worse for the Ukrainians, and give it another week or two and it may be going much worse for the Russians.

    At the moment, to me, it seems the Ukrainians are setting up to drive on Melitopol. An obvious and heavily defended route, but if they get there, it means they dont need to go all the way to the sea to cut off Crimea. And, maybe means they end up with a new front line they can properly defend when they have cut off Crimea??

    Interesting times.

  47. ”
    Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 7:01 pm
    Team Katich @ #761 Sunday, June 11th, 2023 – 6:53 pm

    Spent a couple of hours watching the disabled tenpin bowling championships currently on in Adelaide. Tenpin bowling alleys are odd places at the best of times. This dials it up to the point of making it very enjoyable. A lad from Darwin came up to me and started talking at me – then mid “chat”broke into a Carly Rae Jensen song. Then added some dance moves. The dude had a good voice. My kids were mesmerised.

    Bowling looks a stressful sport and some of these peeps were taking it very seriously indeed. Many struggled with the pressure. One chap (downs I think) bowled an impressive spare and cheers went up for him which he found quite frightening. Suffice to say the carers/support crew were performing a lot of calming back rubbing.

    Comment of the week.
    ”

    Generous comment of the week!

  48. ”
    Cronussays:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 7:15 pm
    “ Even the most optimistic renewable energy champions confess to being shocked by how quickly the world has built and deployed clean energy over the past year. The scope of the achievement is difficult to exaggerate.”

    Some positive news in the worldwide renewable energy space.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/finally-some-seriously-good-news-on-climate-and-some-not-so-good-20230608-p5df15.html
    ”

    God speed.
    We need it like yesterday.

  50. “Floodwaters are receding following the collapse of the Kakhovka dam, but debris washed along the Dnipro river is turning Odesa’s Black Sea coastline into “a garbage dump and animal cemetery,” according to Ukrainian authorities.

    “A lot of mines, ammunition and other explosive objects are being carried into the sea and thrown onto the shoreline,” Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs said on its website at the weekend, adding that border guards had observed a “plague of fish” in the area.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/11/europe/kakhovka-dam-collapse-swimming-banned-intl-hnk/index.html

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