Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)

Major party starters in place for Fadden, a date set for Rockingham, and nine candidates emerge for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte.

News to report on the three by-elections presently in view – one federal and two state, two with dates confirmed and one to be announced:

• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Fadden by-election on July 15 will be long-serving Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, who won a final round vote of 153 preselectors over Dinesh Palipana, with Fran Ward, Owen Caterer and Craig Hobart falling by the wayside in earlier rounds. Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports a meeting of Labor’s administrative committee last Friday unanimously endorsed Letitia Del Fabbro, a nurse educator who was also the candidate at the May 2022 election.

• Nine candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte, expected to be held in about a fortnight, controversial former Kew MP Tim Smith not being among them. As reported by Rachel Baxendale in The Australian, they are John Roskam, former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs; Sarah Overton, KPMG director; Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, who ran in Box Hill at the November state election; Jason McClintock, a tech business founder who ran in Eltham (and who donated heavily to the party’s state election campaign); David Farrelly, who ran in Pakenham; Jemma Townson, “energy industry communications director and former Matthew Guy and Katie Allen staffer”; Antonietta di Cosmo, 22-year-old “Ryan Smith staffer, champion rower and law student”; Allison Troth, “cancer campaigner and former John Howard staffer”; and Andrew Conlon, “Manningham councillor and maths teacher”. The report says factional conservatives are likely to back Roskam or Werner, while “an opposing factional grouping that coalesces around powerbrokers Frank Greenstein and Holly Byrne” might support Overton, McClintock or Townson.

• The Rockingham by-election to replace Mark McGowan has been set for July 29. The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate will likely be Magenta Marshall, who has won backing from the Right, despite last week saying she was “not sure it’s my time”. Marshall is in her late twenties and works in a “specialised campaigning role” in party headquarters, having previously been an electorate officer to Balcatta MP David Michael.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 thoughts on “Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)”

Comments Page 15 of 26
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  1. ar, there are a lot of legitimate criticisms of Musk, but twitter ownership and free speech are not really related. I mean… if you squint your eyes, and have a few beers, sure… maybe. But not really.

    They’re separate issues, yes.

    I mentioned the “free speech” thing because it stands as a clear (and independent) example of Elon’s hypocrisy.

    He’s also on record calling for, and promising, greater transparency from Twitter and its management. You know, back when he was sure there was a vast left-wing, woke-ish conspiracy to take over politics through biased content moderation or whatever. And now that he’s calling the shots he’s happy to invoke the veil of secrecy as and when it suits him.

    As in, there are now (at least) two simple examples of Elon’s word not being worth the tweets it’s printed on.

  2. frednk, thank you for that link. I had been neglecting that source somewhat in favour of Denys Davydov (also on YouTube), but I’m going to remedy that now. 🙂

  3. When you look at Trump, BoJo, Truss, Morrison, Trumble, Abbott … right wing con artists get found out pretty quickly these days.

  4. Pi @ #697 Sunday, June 11th, 2023 – 3:30 pm

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/06/why-were-interviewing-captive-birds-to-find-the-best-to-release-into-the-wild/

    My money is on the ones identified as cray cray. If the cray cray gene wasn’t so successful, we wouldn’t see so much of it.

    I had the same thought when I read it earlier. And I suspect that the “fittest” individuals follow along just behind the risk takers. IOW you need the mix in the gene pool.

  5. From https://militaryland.net/ , we have news of developments across the front. In Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

    “a. Ukrainian forces entered Lobkove south of Stepnohirsk. The village was previously located in the gray zone.
    b. Ukrainian troops also managed to advance south of Lobkove and secure the nearby area.
    c. Russian kamikaze drone targeted a Ukrainian convoy south-east of Nova Tokmachka, revealing a Ukrainian advance towards Novopokrovka.”

    https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-472-summary/

    Comparing this with the situation map of two days ago, Ukraine appears to have liberated a right triangle shaped area approximately 12.5 sq km west of Lobkove, with perpendicular sides 4.7 km N-S and 5.3 km E-W. Ukraine also appears to have liberated an irregular quadrilateral shaped area aproximately 7.5 sq km between Mala Tokmachka and Novopokrovka, 3.9 km E-W and an average of 1.9 km N-S.

  6. Rex: “whitesplain”

    The people, and their quislings, against the Uluru Statement and specifically the indigenous convention that led to the Uluru Statement, are the “whitesplainers”.

    The question is; Are you aligned with Dutton on the issue of the voice referendum? Seems like it.

  7. Reveling in special counsel Jack Smith’s 37-count indictment of Donald Trump on charges ranging from obstruction of justice to very serious Espionage Act violations, former Trump “fixer” Michael Cohen said his ex-boss is showing definite signs of fear. Speaking with MSNBC host Katie Phang, the former Trump lawyer said the now twice-indicted ex-president’s flip-out on Truth Social is a sign that he is in a “state of panic.”
    “At twelve o’clock midnight Trump is in an absolute panic,” Cohen told the MSNBC host. “You may have seen it on his Truth Social, all caps again, which connotes in Trump’s speech that he’s angry. But it also connotes that he’s nervous, that he’s in a state of panic.”
    He continued, “And he starts attacking the Biden administration, he starts attacking the DOJ, he starts attacking the attorney general and why? Again, read my book ‘Revenge’ and you’ll understand why. That’s what Donald Trump did during his administration. Donald Trump went ahead, he weaponized the DOJ using a willing and complicit attorney general.”

  8. Rex Douglas
    Are you going to whitesplain why she is wrong …?

    I can explain why Thorpe is an odious idiot. Such an explanation would transcend any colour on the spectrum.

  9. frednk @ Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 4:14 pm:

    “Enough Already
    1) Denys Davydov panics.”
    ==============

    I’ve noticed that especially in his last two posts.

    Your second point about lack of focus on ‘objectives’ as opposed to ‘results in themselves’ is also fair: it can misconstrue a work-in-progress as a failed attempt, which of course underestimates the danger the Russian forces here are actually exposed to.

  10. EA – what’s your take on the counter offensive ?

    Too early to call – or looks like it’s not going well?

    Those seem to be the dominant commentary themes ?

    Thoughts ?

  11. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 4:21 pm
    Accusing her opponent of what she herself is doing…

    Basically the right-wing play-book.

  12. Angora Fish,
    Where exactly are you getting your information from? A claim of 3 Ukrainian losses to every 1 Russian, seems extraordinary, if not completely unbelievable.

    At least the rest of us who comment here about this war provide sources.

  13. AngoraFish says:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 3:35 pm
    Ukraine can’t afford to lose soldiers at a 3:1 ratio, that’s the problem right there. If Ukraine are losing soldiers at that rate then the offensive is over.

    Improved western technology, and better motivation and training, were meant to mitigate against those odds. If Ukraine is not inflicting at least 3 losses for every one of their own then they’ve lost.

    And again, the Russians aren’t stumbling around bumping into their own landmines, however even if it did happen once in the confusion of battle it’s hardly representative of the state of the battlefield; it’s just a cheap propaganda shot at so-called Russian incompetence. What do they say about underestimating your enemy again?
    ————————————————

    Literally everything I’d expect from a tankie or bot.

  14. Lars Von Trier @ Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 5:03 pm:

    “EA – what’s your take on the counter offensive ?

    Too early to call – or looks like it’s not going well?”
    ===============

    Lars, definitely the former. I would add that it is not just a case of too early to call, it is also a case of too ‘information dark’ to call – indeed, too ‘clouded with mis/disinformation’ to call.

    In general, it is never really valid to call a result on 5-6 month operation not even a week in. Most if not all of the early assaults are going to be either feints or feelers.

  15. Cronus,
    Angora Fish has been around PB for a while but you never know when Russian propaganda will reel another fish in. 😉

  16. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 5:33 pm

    Cronus,
    Angora Fish has been around PB for a while but you never know when Russian propaganda will reel another fish in.
    ________
    that’s why we need a Chief Accuser. I nominate C@t for this exalted position. It’s not so much the obvious tankies that are the problem, it is those who seemingly equivocate.

  17. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 5:44 pm

    The PollBludger Witchfinder-General!
    ______________
    Some villages will need to be cleansed.

  18. Further from https://militaryland.net/ , we have news of developments along the front in western Donetsk Oblast:

    “a. Russian sources released a drone footage showing Ukrainian advance on the right flank of Blahodatne dated to June 5.
    b. Given the Ukrainian advances in the area, Blahodatne and Storozheve settlements will likely soon, if not already, be liberated.”

    https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-472-summary/

    Comparing this with the situation map of two days ago, Ukraine appears to have liberated a rectangular shaped area approximately 5.5 sq km, east of Storozheve and Blahodatne, extending 2.8 km N-S and 2.0 km E-W.

  19. There’s south hanging from the gibbet.

    His crime : not understanding albos passion for a govt funded afl stadium in Hobart

  20. Rex Douglas @ Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 5:55 pm:

    ‘South was an interesting commenter.

    Hope they return some day.”
    ========================

    South and I had some fruitful discussions on the war in Ukraine. South, if you’re lurking, I am still definitely up for more.

  21. Lars Von Trier @ Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 5:59 pm:

    “Sorry – your mate bounced south out.”
    =================

    Pity. As the song by “The Mighty Mighty Bosstones” goes: “Why can’t we be friends?” I think, except for posters who actually side with the likes of the regimes in Moscow, Damascus, Tehran or Pyongyang and spread their propaganda, we should all be friends here.

  22. Shogun says:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 4:29 pm
    Rex Douglas
    Are you going to whitesplain why she is wrong …?

    I can explain why Thorpe is an odious idiot. Such an explanation would transcend any colour on the spectrum.
    —————————————————

    Seems that whitesplaining is the term used to shutdown opinion and discussion. It’s the type of labelling used by those without a cogent argument. If we followed that logic, would there be such a term as blacksplaining?

    Imagine the outcry at that suggestion and rightfully so because the real issue is that it has nothing to do with colour. The irony is that those resorting to the whitesplaining label are often doing so against those who strongly support The Voice, go figure.

  23. Said with zero sense of irony, about me, by Edwina/Edward St John/Lars von Trier and nath(sorry I forget his sock puppets’ names). Lol.


  24. Lars Von Triersays:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 5:03 pm
    EA – what’s your take on the counter offensive ?

    Too early to call – or looks like it’s not going well?

    Those seem to be the dominant commentary themes ?

    Thoughts ?

    According to EA, David is winning in a David -Goliath war.

  25. Cronus,
    There are certainly some people around who cynically employ that type of terminology in order to shame those making valid criticisms into silence.


  26. Dog’s Brunchsays:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 5:19 pm
    Steve777 says:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 4:21 pm
    Accusing her opponent of what she herself is doing…

    Basically the right-wing play-book.

    LNP are experts of that.

  27. Ven @ Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 6:18 pm

    “According to EA, David is winning in a David -Goliath war.”
    ================

    Ven, I’m not sure how to take this comment of yours. I actually did give my view to Lars above, at 5:29pm. Your comment quoted here is not an accurate summary of that view.

  28. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 5:20 pm
    Angora Fish,
    Where exactly are you getting your information from? A claim of 3 Ukrainian losses to every 1 Russian, seems extraordinary, if not completely unbelievable.

    At least the rest of us who comment here about this war provide sources.
    ———————————

    C@T

    The 3:1 loss ratio is the military planning basis for attack scenarios. Attackers historically lose 3:1 as defenders typically are in well prepared, unexposed positions.

    This certainly doesn’t mean that this will occur as it is always situation-dependent. Certainly there is no indication at this point that Ukraine are suffering such comparative losses.

  29. A white person is in no position to negatively attack a blak person re their position on the Voice.

    A white person should only speak for themself.

  30. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 5:33 pm
    Cronus,
    Angora Fish has been around PB for a while but you never know when Russian propaganda will reel another fish in.
    —————————————————————

    Angora Fish appears to have missed the fundamental point that one side is moving forward whilst the other is reversing. This is a strong combat indicator in any battle. I sensed Russian wishcasting.

  31. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, June 11, 2023 at 6:31 pm

    A white person is in no position to negatively attack a blak person re their position on the Voice.
    _____
    I think that’s good advice. I follow it.

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