Live Commentary
12:12pm After 229 of 230 councils, Labour has 2,674 councillors (up 536), the Tories 2,299 (down 1,061), the Lib Dems 1,626 (up 405) and the Greens 481 (up 241). The final council won’t be completed until Tuesday owing to a recount in one ward. Both late councils went to No Overall Control, no change.
11:58am At the 1996 UK local elections, held a year before Labour last gained power at a UK general election, Labour routed the Tories on the PNS by 43-29 with 26% for the Lib Dems.
10:31am Given that Labour’s performance in the two national vote measures was well below their current national polling lead, I think these elections are a much bigger disappointment for Labour than is currently being portrayed.
10:20am Sky’s National Estimated Vote share is worse for Labour than the BBC, with Labour only seven points ahead of the Tories, 36-29 with 18% for the Lib Dems. If this were the result at a general election, Labour would probably fall short of a majority in the House of Commons.
There are still two councils outstanding. The BBC’s report said Labour is now the largest party in local government, surpassing the Tories for the first time since 2002. The council the Greens won control of is mid Suffolk.
7:34am In my Intro post, I talked about the importance of the BBC’s Projected National Share. The PNS for these council elections was 35% Labour, 26% Tories and 20% Lib Dems. This nine-point Labour lead is the largest since Labour lost national power in 2010, but a big underperformance for them on the current national polls that give Labour about a 17-point lead.
From the last time these council elections were held in 2019, Labour is up seven on PNS, the Tories down two and Lib Dems up one. From the 2022 council elections, Labour is steady, the Tories down four and the Lib Dems up one.
7:19am Saturday After 227 of 230 councils declared, Labour have 2,657 councillors (up 527), the Tories 2,282 (down 1,061), the Lib Dems 1,608 (up 416) and the Greens 478 (up 240). Councils controlled are Labour 71 (up 22), the Tories 33 (down 48), the Lib Dems 29 (up 12), independents two (up one), Residents’ Association two (steady), the Greens one (up one) and no overall control 89 (up 12). I believe this is the first time the Greens have won control of a council.
11:42pm After 101 of 230 councils, Labour has 1,092 councillors (up 208), the Tories 739 (down 338) and the Lib Dems 521 (up 88). Currently Labour is gaining at a 24% rate, the Lib Dems at a 20% rate and the Tories are losing at a 31% rate. Extrapolations give Labour a gain of 501 when everything is counted, the Tories a loss of 1,056 and the Lib Dems a gain of 249. But the Tories’ projected losses are down now on what was earlier projected.
Time for bed now, and I’ll restart this early tomorrow morning AEST.
11:32pm Labour has GAINED Blackpool and the Lib Dems have GAINED Stratford-on-Avon.
10:50pm Labour has GAINED control of Swindon and East Staffordshire councils.
9:36pm In council control, Labour has a majority on 25 councils (up three), the Tories on 13 (down 12), Lib Dems nine (up one), independents two (up one) and no overall control 25 (up seven).
9:32pm After 74 of 230 councils, Labour has 787 councillors (up 148), the Tories 509 (down 262), the Lib Dems 385 (up 65) and the Greens 73 (up 38). The extrapolations have Labour finishing up 494, the Tories down 1,143 and the Lib Dems up 248.
5pm Looks like a lull in the counting until this evening AEST, when the remaining 170 councils start reporting.
4:41pm The Lib Dems have GAINED Windsor and Maidenhead council from the Tories, with a 22 year old Lib Dem ousting the Tory leader in his ward.
4:33pm After 60 of 230 councils, Labour has 633 councillors (up 110), the Tories 419 (down 209), the Lib Dems 308 (up 57) and the Greens 51 (up 29). The extrapolations now suggest a total loss of over 1,100 for the Tories, with Labour up almost 450 and the Lib Dems 278.
3:44pm Labour GAINS Medway council from the Tories, winning 31 of 53 seats declared so far with six still to come. That’s a nine seat gain for Labour at the direct expense of the Tories.
3:21pm After results from 52 of 230 councils, Labour has 564 councillors (up 103), the Tories 388 (down 171) and the Lib Dems 294 (up 49). Current projections are for Labour to end up with 2,607 (up 476), the Tories 2,336 (down 1,029) and the Lib Dems 1,468 (up 245).
2:18pm Putting the latest figures in has the Tories losing 33% of their current seats, and would extrapolate to an overall loss of nearly 1,100 councillors.
1:52pm Labour has GAINED control of Stoke-on-Trent after it was previously hung and the Tories have lost NW Leistershire to no overall control.
1:41pm I’ve done some extrapolations on the current results. Labour has 415 councillors (up 74), the Tories 222 (down 92) and the Lib Dems 160 (up 20). The percentage gains/losses are Labour up 22%, Tories down 29% and Lib Dems up 14%. Projecting these to the seats held before these elections (see the intro post below) gives Labour nearly 2,600 councillors (up 462), the Tories 2,380 (down 986) and the Lib Dems 1,400 (up 175).
12:32pm Labour has gained control of Plymouth council, which was previously hung.
12:22pm Counting has slowed down, and we’ve only got 35 of 230 councils declared so far. Labour has 322 councillors (up 48), the Tories 128 (down 70), the Lib Dems 107 (up 18) and the Greens 18 (up ten).
11:43am With results in from 249 of the 792 key wards that the BBC is using for its Projected National Share (PNS), Labour is up 7.4% on 2019, the Tories down 1.2% and the Lib Dems up 1.1%.
11:11am Labour made gains in seven of the ten Tamworth councillors up for election this year, to reduce the Tories to 14 of the 30 total seats, depriving them of a majority.
11:05am Now 181 Labour councillors (up 29), 71 Tories (down 44), 72 Lib Dems (up 14) and ten Greens (up four). The Tories have lost another council to No Overall Control.
10:47am Labour has 126 councillors (up 13), the Tories 61 (down 26), the Lib Dems 59 (up 13) and the Greens eight (up two). The Tories have lost control of Brentwood council, the first council so far with a change in party control.
9:49am So far the Tories have lost ten councillors, with the Lib Dems up seven, Labour up two and the Greens up one.
8:47am The BBC’s live blog says that only 64 of the 230 councils will be counting overnight (it’s nearly midnight UK time). These councils tend to be where only 1/3 of seats are up for election.
8:32am Friday You can follow the live council scoreboard at the BBC. So far Labour has won three councillors, making two gains, both from UKIP.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
Local government elections will be held in England today, with polls closing at 7am Friday AEST; they will be held in Northern Ireland on May 18. Most of the English seats up were last contested in 2019. The BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS), which converts council elections into national vote shares, showed Labour and the Conservatives tied on 28% each with 19% for the Lib Dems in 2019.
A total of 230 councils in England hold elections today, although in many of them only one-third of seats are up for election, as other seats are elected in alternative council election years. The Conservatives are defending 3,365 councillors, Labour 2,131 and the Liberal Democrats 1,223. Results will come in until at least Saturday AEST.
UK national polling in the last week has shown a small lift for Labour when compared with the previous week’s polls, and they are now about 17 point ahead of the Conservatives
The best statistic for the local elections is not the total councillors or councils won or lost, but the BBC’s PNS. In 2022, Labour won the PNS by 35-30 over the Conservatives after losing by 36-29 in 2021. A huge win for Labour could put Sunak under pressure, but if Labour flops, the pressure would be on their leader Keir Starmer, as he approved the Sunak attack ads. The next UK general election is not due until late 2024.
Turkish elections: May 14
Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections+ on May 14, with a presidential runoff on May 28 if nobody wins a first round majority. In the parliamentary elections, a total of 600 seats are allocated by proportional representation with a 7% threshold. Parties can join alliances and avoid this threshold provided the alliance gets over 7%.
Polling continues to be mixed, with the social democratic Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu leading the right-wing incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for president by 20 points in one poll in the first round, but he trails by nine points in another poll.
Greek election: May 21
All 300 seats will be allocated by proportional representation with a 3% threshold at the May 21 Greek election. In previous elections, there was a large seat bonus for the party that won the most votes, but that was scrapped by the left-wing Syriza government before the 2019 election. Unless electoral law changes are approved by a 2/3 parliamentary majority, they apply not at the next election, but the one following that election.
The conservative New Democrats won the 2019 election with the help of the seat bonus, and are the leading party in the polls with mid-30s support. But left-wing parties (Syriza, the centre-left PASOK, the Communists and the left-wing MeRa25) have more votes combined than the right.
US default possible on June 1: Last week I covered Republicans’ passage of a bill through the House of Representatives that would raise the debt limit but at the cost of spending cuts that Democrats strongly oppose. The US Treasury said on Monday that the US could default on June 1 without congressional action to raise the debt limit, though the actual day of default is probably further away.
It fascinates me how UK council elections are apparently an accurate barometer for how the parties are travelling in the general election. Couldn’t be more different here!
Also, just wanted to add that I really enjoy your posts on international election, Adrian. I rarely have much to add to the threads, but always make an effort to read them.
Can’t remember the source but re Turkey I heard someone narrating that the broad opposition was polling well ahead of Erdogan, but that polling had narrowed on the naming of the specific opposition candidate. Or I dreamed it and it is completely wrong.
It’s all bullshit!. Turnout for council elections is about 30%. The only people excited about it are the MSM, who use it as an opportunity to spin against Labour.
Hey why don’t I get a Guestpost thread thingy for the Thai Elections?
The fact that I am pissed half the time and stuck at the beach shouldn’t come into it.
Anyways well done Big Adrian on the above.
Good news is folks despite the slight I will keep punters up to date as the excitement builds in the Middle Kingdom where a feeling of change (and Ganja) is in the air.
‘Campaigners claim there have been “countless examples” of would-be voters being turned away from polling stations in the first elections where photo identification is mandatory.’
(Guardian UK blog)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/may/04/england-local-elections-2023-voter-id-conservatives-labour-rishi-sunak-uk-politics-latest
Oh, dear! UK Labour cancels Republic, “a pressure group that campaigns for the abolition of the monarchy”:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/04/labour-mps-attack-party-rule-changes-curbing-links-with-anti-monarchy-group-republic
Unfortunate …
“ A local election vote has been suspended due to the death of a candidate after the polls opened.
“Graham Galton, a Conservative councillor running for the Coxford ward in Southampton, Hampshire, died on Thursday.
“Southampton City Council has warned residents not to try to vote in the ward, with another election expected to take place within 35 days.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/may/04/england-local-elections-2023-voter-id-conservatives-labour-rishi-sunak-uk-politics-latest
Tories losses are modest till now when one considers the circumstances.
Labour gains are modest
Only Lib Dems gains are bit better than modest. If this continues Starmer leadership will be questioned.
Labour +12. LD +10. Conservative -17. On results so far, per the BBC website.
Is that a sign of a Labour “flop”, or is the pressure now on Sunak?
Obviously, still a long way to go, but I think Sir Keir will have a better night’s sleep than Rishi!
Now Lab +14, LD +10, Con -20.
Its too early to tell if there is bloodbath or flop for Labour
As most Councils are not being counted at the moment the debate on winners and losers can wait until after tomorrows counting.
I would of liked to see more Labour gains but I am happy to wait
Just on the results we have already, we can rule out a labour flop.
Remember that these swings are from 2019, which basically amounted to a decent result to labour. Labour and Tories on equal vote share means a labour SNP coalition government.
And the swings since then. Tories have lost more than a third of their seats. In order of decreasing sample size and this confidence, Labor have gained about 20%, lib dems 50% and greens 100%.
None of that is remotely consistent with a labour flop.
This is either a bloodbath or a good result for labour. A flop is ruled out already
Based on opinion polls I thought it will be Tories bloodbath. I thought Tories will be wiped off. That is not happening yet. And based on opinion polls Labour gains are modest. Labour led Tories by about 18%. That is huge in FPPS.
Its hard to know what might happen in a General Election based on voting patterns so far. I have no idea whether the counting so far is broadly representative, or whether it may skew sharply (one way or the other) as further counting is completed.
As it stands, the BBC is cautiously expressing a view that the Conservatives may yet lose 1,000 seats in these council elections, in line with some of the pre-election forecasts. This is with Lab (so far) polling 39.3%, Con on 25.8% and LD on 18.8%. In a General Election, I would expect a voting outcome like that to produce a thumping Labour majority – in 2001, Tony Blair ended up with over 400 seats in the Commons with a 40% vote.
Labour up 46 seats aleady with only 33 of 230 councils declared, looks like it will be a pretty good result to me.
Lib/Dems also up 15 and Greens up 6 at this early stage.
Ven it’s important to remember that its 3.30am here and there are a huge number of councils electing thousands of councillors yet to start counting yet (and won’t even start until 9am) so it’s impossible to say with any certainty what the result means.
There are still huge gaps in reporting the key wards being used to calculate the notional national share for example.
The results will be much clearer Friday evening UK time.
Like any election it’s the final result that matters and analysis needs to be based on that.
Also have to remember many of these Councils are not in big urban areas. I don’t think London and Scotland are voting here. But Labour is doing well and the Tories very badly
Yes, no council elections this year in London, Scotland or Wales. London’s boroughs all had elections last May.
It’s worth noting that these Council elections are for England – and at the last General Election in 2019, in England, the Conservatives won 47.2% of the vote, with Labour on 34% and LD on 12%. It’s dangerous to extrapolate these results to the next General Election in 18 months+, but Rishi Sunak must be feeling the heat.
This has aged well.
Medway is a big gain for Labour, that is in Kent, an area where Starmer needs to pick up seats in 2024, a similarly good result in Plymouth. The result in Stoke On Trent indicates those so called red wall areas which Johnson seized in 2019 are headed back to the Labour column.
I can’t see past a Monty Python skit about a council by-election. Something about Mr Hilter being lost on the A-340 on his way to Stalingrad via Taunton.
I say you won’t have much fun in Stalingrad Mr Sunak…
The level of granularity at the BBC site is a little disappointing, or am I using it wrong, can I drill down to wards and candidates?
Pro Brexit voters coming home to Labour. Anti Brexit voters cranky at the Tories. There comes a time when you have to “pay the piper”.
Asha / Clem Attlee
You are both wrong. Local elections provide neither an accurate barometer nor “complete bullshit”.
They do however give:
a) A good overview of direction of travel nationally, there are experts who know how to interpret / extrapolate the results, especially Dr. John Curtice
b) Some early indications (with a few red herrings thrown in for good measure) of WHERE gains and losses may occur with above or below average swing at the next parliamentary election.
Lib Dems definitely seem to be overperforming, although John Curtice was less than effusive about their claims, reckoning it only equates to c.1% increase on 2019 council elections.
I think perhaps their vote is more efficiently working for them at this election, with many working class areas where they are probably standing still at best.
Reminder of equivalent national vote shares at 2019 council elections (when THESE seats were last contested):
Lab 28%+
Con 28%-
LD 19%
Independents etc – can’t remember but higher than this year! 2019 was quite a ‘plague on all your houses’ time, with LD mopping up the ‘2nd EU referendum’ clamourers.
Evan @ #22 Friday, May 5th, 2023 – 4:36 pm
They must be asking the Tories, ‘what have you done for me lately?’
Is Sadiq Khan running to be Mayor of London again?
BBC Summary
The Conservatives have suffered significant council losses in early local election results – with another flurry of declarations expected at lunchtime
Labour has taken control of Plymouth, Stoke-on-Trent and Medway – and leader Sir Keir Starmer says his party’s on course to win the next general election
The Lib Dems have seized control of Windsor and Maidenhead, after a showing hailed by the party leader Sir Ed Davey as “ground-breaking”
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has acknowledged some “disappointing” results, but insists the Tories are making progress in “key election battlegrounds”
I know he’s entitled to say that if he wants, but does the BBC have to report it uncritically?
”
C@tmommasays:
Friday, May 5, 2023 at 7:25 pm
Is Sadiq Khan running to be Mayor of London again?
”
I believe London Mayoral election was not conducted during this election
BTsays wrote”a) A good overview of direction of travel nationally, there are experts who know how to interpret / extrapolate the results, especially Dr. John Curtice.”
Oh yeah, what has the turnout been? You are full of it.
C@tmomma says:
Friday, May 5, 2023 at 7:25 pm
Is Sadiq Khan running to be Mayor of London again?
中华人民共和国
No voting this round in London or Scotland C@t. Medway a great result for Labour the first time Labour has ever won. Even in the Blair years Labour never held it.
England sure do elections weirdly, I guess that’s where the US got their inspiration from. Really, elections on a Thursday? Some councils with only 1/3 of seats up for election, some with half. What an odd system.
The polls in Greece look interesting and with this election not having the 50 seat bonus for the largest party it looks more likely than not that there will be some kind of eclectic centre-left to far-left wing government bloc probably comprising all of Syriza, PASOK – Movement for Change alliance, the Communists and Mera25.
“In England’s Green and pleasant land”, indeed …
Guardian UK blog:
“The Liberal Democrats think they have a chance of taking control of the councils in Surrey Heath and Stratford-on-Avon …”
Stratford-on-Avon? As a former resident said to his wife:
“Love, Labour’s lost.”
In Lewes District Council in Rural Sussex the Tories have lost all 19 of their seats
The greens are now the largest party with 17 (15 Lib Dems and 9 Labour)
Which for the Greens is somewhat ironic because they have been absolutly shellacked in next door Brighton & Hove and literally seconds ago their leader and deputy (who are also leader and deputy leader of the Council) have been ousted by Labour. He’s in good company because the tory group leader also lost.
Been a very good day for labour here.
“… allies of Johnson linked to the Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO) suggested Sunak should face a confirmatory vote of members and that no one should rule out a comeback for the former prime minister.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/05/rishi-sunak-under-pressure-dire-tory-losses-leadership-threats
Number of councillors
LAB
2,657
+527
Labour 2,657 councillors 527 councillors gained
CON
2,272
-1,058
Conservative 2,272 councillors 1,058 councillors lost
LD
1,604
+415
Liberal Democrat 1,604 councillors 415 councillors gained
IND
865
-83
Independents 865 councillors 83 councillors lost
GRN
478
+240
Green 478 councillors 240 councillors gained
RA
88
-24
The BBC has released an estimated vote share assuming the whole of UK had local elections:
Lab: 35% (0)
Con: 26% (-9)
LD: 20% (+4)
Ors: 19% (+5)
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-65475817
Clearly a big defeat for the Conservatives but Labour would have been hoping to have gained more votes. You’d expect a lot of Lib Dems and others will tactically vote Labour at the next election however the larger than usual third party vote suggests that there isn’t a lot of enthusiasm for either major party – looks like there is an opportunity for third parties to do relatively well at the general election in this environment.
Tories lost about 1058 seats. On the face of it, it is a very bad result for Tories. However, if you notice the numbers each of Labour and Tories they are in the same range after that loss.
I don’t know much about England voting map (i.e. the traditional blue and red areas, can someone clarify that?). Unless these elections happened mostly in traditional blue areas, the election result is not that horrible. Honesty I thought Tories would be wiped out as per opinion polls.
Tories lost about a third of their seats but Labour gained about 45% seats(although it looks like 50% , Independents and Brexit party lost about 100 seats)
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mjsays:
Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 7:05 am
The BBC has released an estimated vote share assuming the whole of UK had local elections:
Lab: 35% (0)
Con: 26% (-9)
LD: 20% (+4)
Ors: 19% (+5)
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-65475817
Clearly a big defeat for the Conservatives but Labour would have been hoping to have gained more votes. You’d expect a lot of Lib Dems and others will tactically vote Labour at the next election however the larger than usual third party vote suggests that there isn’t a lot of enthusiasm for either major party – looks tike there is an opportunity for third parties to do relatively well at the general election in this environment.
”
What is striking is that Labour vote percentage remains same from previous election. They won because Tories lost 9% of their vote. We can safely assume the 4% gainof Lib Dems is at the expense of Tories.
So there is no new enthusiasm for Labour. Labour vote just about held up and that too in mid 30s. And that is after all the horrible things Tories did especially in last 1 year.
It appears Labour did not win any new votes. We can interpret that The voters who did not trust Labour last time still don’t trust them, which under the circumstances is quite amazing and unbelievable.
AB: After 227 of 230 councils declared, Labour have 2,657 councillors (up 527), the Tories 2,282 (down 1,061), the Lib Dems 1,608 (up 416) and the Greens 478 (240). Councils controlled are Labour 71 (up 22), the Tories 33 (down 48), the Lib Dems 29 (up 12), independents two (up one), Residents’ Association two (steady), the Greens one (up one) and no overall control 89 (up 12). I believe this is the first time the Greens have won control of a council.
Me: Lib Dems and Greens are big winners of this election.
Me and Clematlee doesn’t agree on many things on this blog and he called me lots of names although I never said anything about him personally.
But I do agree with him on one aspect. There seems to be no enthusiasm for Keir Starmer among English voters.
I agree with Ven and Clem. After all the polling hype, this looks to me like a weak result for Labour. Perhaps Sir Keir is not the answer.
The same color coded clowns come onto this thread, apparently knowing all and bashing who they bash on every thread
I do not pretend to be an expert on all things ‘local government’ in the UK.
However, the analysis being thrown around by Ven and company seems to be … a fair bit out of kilter with reality.
The first thing to note is – and this is the confusing bit for me – the UK seem to have local elections for different sorts of local government entities fairly regularly BUT – according to the commentary I’ve been able to absorb since my mind turned to the exercise – the seats that were up for grabs yesterday last went to the polls back in May 2019 (at which time the Tories were in the middle of leadership crisis and a brexit crisis), at which election Labour did rather ok on the national vote, securing an estimated 28% share of the total vote (which apparently was itself an improvement on 2015 when labour got smashed in the corresponding local government election).
Based on a comparison with 2019 Labour seems to have picked up a further 7-8% of the national vote yesterday. Also, according to the Guardian UK edition this result marks the first time since 2002 that Labour has surpassed the Tories as the biggest party in local government.
It seems that the “0%” change in Labour’s national vote that Ven relies upon to conclude that this is a disappointing result for Labour under Starmer involves a comparison with the estimated national vote from the 2022 local government elections (which were held for most of the large city based councils, including London I think). However, those elections saw Labour’s vote increase 6% over the 2021 local government elections (which themselves saw a 1% increase in Labour’s national vote over 2019).
By contrast the last four local elections for the Tories have seen then record 28% (2019), 36 (2021 when the Tories still had some BoJo-motion, post Brexit and the first covid wave), 30% (2022 – wheels coming off) and now 26%: their worst result in decades.
It also seems to me – an admitted amateur in UK local government affairs – that UK Labour has always underperformed at local government elections when compared with its national vote for National elections. Right now Starmer’s Labour Party has trended downwards since the tory nadir under the latter days of Truss’s leadership (when it was polling over 50%), but it seems to have levelled off at a poll of polls average (according to politico) at 44%. Whereas Sunak’s Tories have plateaued at around 28%, having enjoyed something of a sharpish recovery in the early months of his reign. 44%-28% for Labour at a General election would represent a landslide under Britain’s first past the post system. It remains to be seen whether yesterday’s forecast 35% of the national vote means that Lbaour’s national parliament polling of 44% is in fact illusory and soft. I doubt it. But I’m no expert.
For me the key outcome from these local government elections is that it confirms and consolidates the large increases that Starmer’s Labour Party scored in the larger metropolitan council elections last year, and marks the regaining of traditional ‘red wall’ labour areas in the midlands and north that deserted Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour in the disastrous2019 general election.
No doubt Labour is looking like an almost safe bet for majority government the national opinion polls have them far ahead but the local election results do keep the question open as to whether that will hold up and translate to a huge 1997 style Labour majority come the general election. As a distant observer it doesn’t look like Starmer has anywhere near the same groundswell of support that elected Blair, it seems more like a case of anyone but the Tories. So not sure how it is unrealistic to speculate that third parties may end up doing better at a general election given the mood of the UK electorate, their views of the respective parties and these results.