The voting intention numbers from the latest fortnightly Essential Research survey, which include a 5% undecided component (up one), have Labor down one to 33%, the Coalition steady on 31%, the Greens steady on 14% and One Nation down one to 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor up a point to 53%, the Coalition down two to 41% and undecided up one to 5% (the missing point being down to rounding).
The Essential Research report also features the pollster’s monthly “leaders favourability ratings”, which invite respondents to rate Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton on scales from one to ten, as distinct from its separate and more conventional measure of approval and disapproval. After a seven point drop for Albanese in the previous survey for “positive” ratings (seven to ten), this survey has him up a point to 41%, while negative ratings (zero to three) are down four to 24% after a six point increase last time, and neutral (four to six) are up two to 30%. Peter Dutton is down three on positive to 23% and up two on negative to 35%, with neutral up a point to 34%.
A monthly question on national direction finds “right direction” sneaking back into the lead over “wrong track” after falling behind last time, being respectively up three to 41% and down four to 39%. Other findings from the poll include 48% support for raising the rate of JobSeeker with 29% opposed, and 52% support for allowing New Zealanders who meet character tests to become Australian citizens after four years of residency with 22% opposed.
Ahead of the budget, the poll finds 41% approving of Jim Chalmers’ performance as Treasurer with disapproval at 27%, although a forced response question on whether respondents were able to name him as Treasurer came down 67-33 against. Respondents were asked if they felt current spending in seven policy areas was too high or too low, which found health and Medicare leading the field by some distance on 56% for too low. Despite recent awareness-raising exercises on various fronts, only 18% felt national security and defence spending was too low while 26% felt it was too high, the latter being the biggest out of the seven.
Respondents were also asked if various categories of tax rate were too low or too high: only “taxes for international corporations” scored a plurality for too low, with super, property and income taxes all scoring a shade below 50% for too high. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1130.
Further recent polling:
• The most recent Resolve Strategic poll had 43% support for raising JobSeeker with 31% opposed; 34% support for cancelling or scaling back stage three tax cuts with 23 opposed; 60% support for increasing the corporate tax rate, with 13% opposed; 58% support for increasing the tax on resource company profits, with 12% opposed; and pluralities in favour of reducing concessions on negative gearing, capital gains, superannuation and franking credits. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday before last from a sample of 1609.
• This week’s Roy Morgan voting intention results have Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 53.5-46.5, which is apparently in from 56.5-43.5 (though it was 56-44 when I checked a week ago), from primary votes of Labor 36%, Coalition 35.5% and Greens 13% (my record of last week’s results shows Labor at 37%, Coalition 33% and Greens 12%). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday – as usual, nothing is offered on sample size, survey method of preference method (Kevin Bonham calculates that Labor is a point higher on two-party based on 2022 election flows).
• The Age/Herald reported on Monday that a YouGov poll for the pro-Voice Uluru Dialogue group, which encompassed a vast national sample of 15,060, had 51% in favour of an Indigenous Voice and 34% opposed, with yes leading 52-32 in New South Wales, 53-31 in Victoria, 47-40 in Queensland, 48-37 in Western Australia, 51-34 in South Australia, 50-35 in Tasmania, 64-24 in the Australian Capital Territory and 52-32 in the Northern Territory. Respondents were specifically asked how they would vote if the referendum to be held “on a proposal to establish a Voice to Parliament for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders in the Constitution” were held today. This turns out to be the poll cited by Rebecca Huntley of The Guardian last week which found support among Indigenous people at 83%, from a substantial sub-sample of 732. However, the poll was conducted well over a month ago, from March 1 to 21.
Q: No one does pomp and ceremony better than the British.
Except North Korea
Shogun @ Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 8:49 pm
Speak for yourself, there’s an excellent running commentary going on in the Avenger household!
“I found it a bit weird that I was walking on tombs if my memory is not failing me.”
My wife was very nervous about walking over tombs. I imagine the cathedrals would feel very eerie after dark.
The cookers will have a field day with the vegan coronation oil.
This is like some cult ritual
Al this is not doing the monarchy side any good I imagine….Charles looks bored, exhausted and old…Camilla has snuck out for fag I think.
I see they’ve given Charlie the Holy Hand Grenade!
It’s a very Christian ceremony… even with representatives of other faiths.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOrgLj9lOwk
I can’t believe that chair Charlie is sitting in doesn’t recline.
Charles has been given the magic wands. Its like watching Harry Potter.
Pueo says:
Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 8:54 pm
The cookers will have a field day with the vegan coronation oil.
_________________
Given Charlies motoring preference for the odd Aston Martin V8 I would have expected Castrol GTX
Here comes his big hat.
Crowning glory!
Had to laugh, the Arch Bish did seem to have screw the helmet on old Charlie
Is it a purple helmet?
At last after a wait of 74 years!
Sorry for the delay but I did want to continue the discussion from the other day and thanks for responding too @catmomma
“I’m not meaning to devalue your friend’s angst. However, loan values are pretty much the same as your friend’s, or more, all around Australia. Yet people are taking out loans to buy houses every day still. Could that be because they know that their investment in a house will be a realised asset?”
Sure, people are taking out loans, I’m not saying they aren’t. But I would point to the article below that things are changing and not in a positive way.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2023/apr/13/young-australians-never-stood-a-chance-for-decades-the-controls-have-been-set-to-favour-older-generations
I would also say my friend is in a privileged position, but that is highlighting my point. Good luck if you earn less than he does and *gasp* want to have kids. My wife and I waited until our late 30s before having a kiddo, because it was only then that it made financial sense for us to do so. That’s with the advantage we had of getting in before the housing market got completely cooked.
“Even if they have to spend the next 30 years paying for it. So I still can’t see how you and your friends can be so Anti Albanese as a result? It’s not him or his government’s fault that prices are so high. You may have missed the news, but the Coalition have been in power for most of the time that the Housing price bubble has inflated to ridiculous heights, so your ire should be directed at them and not at the guy who genuinely wants to do something about it but has barely got the seat warm of the big chair he now sits in.
I agree, and the “angst” you ascribe us has nothing on our absolute hatred of the Liberal Party. They have their own problems with the Teals, what I’m getting at is there is potentially a timebomb on the left for the Labor party too.
Also, there is a crazy amount of risk when it comes to the loan amounts that we are talking about (and let’s be honest not even a nice house). Let’s go even 2% on top of the current bank interest rates. That’s going to cripple a lot of families.
“And can I say the same for inflation? It’s unfair to blame the government that are doing all they can to bring it down. Plus deal with the big freaking mess the Coalition left behind. Some perspective and clear eyes, please, Sigil.”
I agree it’s unfair to blame Labor.
The Stage 3 tax cuts just keep coming into the conversation however and whether it’s fair or not, anything that Labor say about tight fiscal priorities has a big whiff of the ol’ bully bull.
I know Labor can’t break the “promise” because what I’m talking about demographically is not here yet and there are current political realities they need to operate within.
I hope my premise is wrong too, because what I’m saying is bad for anyone younger than me and I don’t want that.
I’ve missed a bunch of stuff too trying to keep the post brief, so happy to continue to the conversation.
“To which I will finally add that at least your friend is on the home owner’s ladder, even if it is a struggle to climb up it. Which is a lot more fortunate position than those for whom that is but a dream.”
I agree.
Apologies if that didn’t come across in my OP.
🙂 I know of Lucas, Prince of Darkness; who’s the Prince of Lubrication and Rust-prevention?
Pueo says:
Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 9:05 pm
Given Charlies motoring preference for the odd Aston Martin V8 I would have expected Castrol GTX
I know of Lucas, Prince of Darkness; who’s the Prince of Lubrication and Rust-prevention?
______________
Good question but I do know WD40 is the King
Charles has his crown jewels on his head.
Probably posted recently but always worth a repeat
https://youtu.be/t2c-X8HiBng
Who is Brunhild the Blue, of the jeweled sword?
So the crowning is at precisely 12 noon British time
So they have decided an auspicious time to crown the King. So Paganesque
I know the new King is all keen on the environment and recycling, but having a gold dressing gown made from a pair of old curtains is going a bit far – my nan had that pattern, or maybe it was on the sofa cushions.
Some worshipped Armor All, defender of the dashboard – but it was rubbish.
“Who is Brunhild the Blue, of the jeweled sword?”
Penny Mordaunt, the (Tory) Leader of the House, and Lord President of the Council.
Camilla cracks a smile…
Thanks mimhoff!
Sigil:
Well said.
I’m gonna be a mighty king, so enemies beware!
Well, I’ve never seen a king of beasts, with quite so little hair.
I’m gonna be the main event, like no king was before.
I’m brushing up on looking down, I’m working on my ROAR!
And thus far, a rather uninspiring thing.
Oh, I just can’t wait to be king…
It’s fiat currency. Just print as much as you want. 🙂
Political Nightguy says :
The rise of the Teals has been one of the best things that has ever happened to the Labor Party. They are the DLP of the Liberal party.
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98.6 agrees :
Hopefully, the Teals can increase their numbers at the Liberal’s expense from here to eternity.
Maybe if Labor can’t win in Stuart Robert’s seat of Fadden then perhaps a Teal could.
If the Teals can take a QLD seat it just might be on the Gold Coast.
Or perhaps we might see another one in a hundred year record broken.
It s interesting to watch from the spectacle but get the feeling this is also how the AFL chooses a new CEO.
Is anyone able to make a meaningful comment on the thread concerning the Tasmanian upper house elections today? Nobody except William has written anything. (sad emoji)
Political Nightguy says :
We are not really in uncharted territories either. The Australian Democrats have held balance of power including under Labor governments. We are just seeing the Greens become that third party that have replaced the Australian Democrats. Its that simple.
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98.6 agrees :
Federal politics would be a lot simpler if we didn’t have an upper house.
Look how simple politically life is in Queensland.
Just noticed a couple of Greek Orthodox effigys(?) attached to the pillars in the long shot.
Vale Philip.
Pueo –
Ikons
” Just noticed a couple of Greek Orthodox effigys(?)…”
icons.
Well, it’s been a beautiful ceremony.
We cracked a bottle of English bubbly (Nyetimber, $80 at Dan Murphy’s) to toast the King.
”Federal politics would be a lot simpler if we didn’t have an upper house.
Look how simple politically life is in Queensland.”
And just imagine if Abbott had gone unchallenged. If the 2014 Budget had gone unchallenged.
Thank you.
Icon believe I got that wrong.
Political Nightguy says :
The rise of the Teals has been one of the best things that has ever happened to the Labor Party. They are the DLP of the Liberal party.
This has been posted twice that I said this when it wasn’t my comment. It was a reply to my comment. Be careful this has happened before of posters posting a comment I said when I haven’t. In fact its happened a couple times where someone has replied and disagreed with me. And then posters have quoted me as I have said it. It’s quite frustrating and its shouldn’t be hard to quote the correct poster. I don’t seem to have any trouble.
98.6:
Having lived in Queensland between the years of 2012 to early 2015 and – while it was before my time – having heard many of horror story from the Joh years, I can’t agree with you on that one.
Bicameral legislatures keep governments accountable. Sure, they can be annoying when your side is the one in power, but I’m generally pretty damn grateful for the federal Senate whenever the Coalition are in power.
Which isn’t to say that there isn’t room for improvement in how the Senate and the various state Legislative Councils are elected and function. Abolishing the ability to block supply and “1 vote, 1 value” reforms are well overdue for the Senate, and it’s an utter joke that the Victorian Legislative Council still uses group ticket voting.
Château Thames Embankment?
Not sure Fadden is ripe teal territory but if there is some kind of viable independent I hope they stand. If there isn’t one I think Labor should contest it anyway, there is a small chance they could gain it and it’s likely going to be a significant swing against the LNP adding more pressure on Dutton.
Steve:
Yup.
Or that union busting bill that Turnbull used as the trigger for his double-dissolution. Or Morrison’s religious discrimination bill.
Given that, historically, the Bad Guys are in power about ⅔ of the time, I’m happy to keep the Senate, even if it can be annoying at times.
Pueo,
A little further south:
https://nyetimber.com/